2026.03. 06 本文字数：1976，阅读时长大约3分钟 作者 | 第一财经 胡弋杰 随着中东冲突持续升级，美股三大股指集体收跌，道指跌近800点。伴随冲突步入第六天，原油价格 再度飙升引发市场对通胀上行以及美联储降息前景的担忧，标普500工业、材料和医疗保健板块领 跌。 截至收盘，道琼斯工业指数下跌784.67点，跌幅1.61%，收于47954.74点；标普500指数下跌 38.79点，跌幅0.56%，收于6830.71点；纳斯达克综合指数下跌58.49点，跌幅0.26%，收于 22748.99点。 科技股涨跌互现。博通涨4.80%，微软涨1.35%，亚马逊涨0.98%，英伟达涨0.16%；超威半导体 跌 1.30% ， Meta 跌 1.07% ， 苹 果 跌 0.85% ， 谷 歌 -C 跌 0.84% ， 谷 歌 -A 跌 0.74% ， 特 斯 拉 跌 0.10%。 | 苹果(APPLE) | 260.290 | -0.85% | | --- | --- | --- | | US AAPL | 259.440 | -0.33% 盘后 | | 脸书(META PLATFORM | 660.570 ...

周五（2月27日）维持窄幅震荡，收盘微涨0.4%至5183.88美元/盎司，盘中一度跌至5130美元附近，作为调解方的阿曼外交大臣在会谈结束后释放出积极信 号，宣布双方取得了"重大进展"，这一度打压避险买需，但双方仍存在分歧，很快吸引逢低买盘给金价提供支撑。 预期金价将攀升至5340美元，并进一步冲击5400美元关口。昨日维持窄幅震荡，收盘微涨0.4%至5183.88美元/盎司，盘中一度跌至5130美元附近但很快受到 逢低买盘支撑；而美国黄金期货则小幅收跌于5194.20美元。这一近乎静止的价格波动背后，隐藏着市场对日内瓦美伊间接核谈判的高度警惕——地缘政治 的天平任何微小倾斜，都可能引发金价的剧烈震荡。周五（2月27日）亚市早盘，现货黄金窄幅震荡，目前交投于5184.42美元/盎司附近。 ---趋势判断---- 目前黄金行情为价格上涨趋势。可以布局支撑多单和压力位空单思路。 1. 黄金技术图表显示目前K线支撑位5128附近 伊朗方面展现出的谈判策略颇具深意。一名伊朗高级官员透露，德黑兰方面希望华盛顿能够将"核问题与非核问题"分开处理，并暗示若能做到这一点，双方 有望达成协议框架。这一表态实际上是在巧妙回应特 ...

交易员们正密切评估这一新机制的影响，而美国贸易代表格里尔周三进一步透露，部分国家面临的关税税率将从10%升至15%甚至更高。尽管具体贸易伙伴 尚未明示，但这种政策摇摆已为市场注入新的不确定性。法院裁决后的波动性，让贸易领域和政府应对方式充满了变数。与此同时，美国经济虽展现韧性， 可能实现高于趋势的增长和生产率提升，但通胀居高不下的担忧，足以让黄金成为投资者心中的"定海神针"。 贵金属市场整体联动，白银铂金齐创三周新高黄金的强势也带动了整个贵金属板块。现货白银周三大涨2.5%至89.08美元，盘中触及91.12美元的三周高位， 美银预计白银今年有望再次突破100美元大关。 现货铂金一度暴涨8%，触及2347美元的1月29日以来最高；现货钯金虽尾盘回吐涨幅，但仍录得4.7%的盘中涨幅。这种联动效应，进一步印证了避险情绪在 贵金属市场的全面蔓延。综上所述，2026年开年的黄金市场，正处于关税通胀与伊朗核危机交织的黄金窗口期。 短期内，春季可能出现盘整，但美银等机构已明确指出，任何跌幅都将被不确定性迅速填补。长期来看，随着美联储政策维持高位、美元区间波动，以及地 缘风险难以在短期内彻底消退，黄金突破6000美元的预测 ...

Fundamental Analysis - Gold prices experienced a significant rebound, rising over 6% on February 3, marking the largest single-day increase since November 2008, with current trading around $5065 per ounce [1] - The market's volatility was influenced by the nomination of Kevin Warsh to replace Jerome Powell as Fed Chair, leading to a reassessment of Fed policies, particularly regarding interest rates and balance sheet management [3] - The recent U.S. government shutdown, although brief, highlighted political instability and increased uncertainty in economic data, which has driven demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [6] Market Dynamics - The U.S. manufacturing PMI rose to 52.6, the highest since August 2022, which typically supports a stronger dollar; however, the dollar index fell by 0.12% to 97.42 [5] - U.S. Treasury yields declined, with the 2-year yield at 3.568% and the 10-year yield at 4.268%, reflecting investor sentiment regarding potential changes in Fed policy, which may lower the opportunity cost of holding gold [5] - Geopolitical tensions, particularly the conflict in Ukraine, have heightened market anxiety, further boosting gold's appeal as a hedge against uncertainty [5] Technical Analysis - Gold prices have shown signs of recovery after a sharp decline, with a focus on testing the $5000 level, indicating potential resistance and support levels around $5100 and $4820 respectively [9] - Short-term trading strategies suggest potential long positions near $4820 with targets at $4920 and $5020, while short positions may be considered below $5100 with targets at $5000 and $4900 [9]

Market Analysis - On January 7, amid escalating global geopolitical tensions, gold has shown exceptional performance as a traditional safe-haven asset, with spot gold prices rising approximately 1% to close at $4,494 per ounce [1][5] - In early Asian trading on January 7, spot gold fluctuated at high levels, reaching $4,500.27 per ounce, nearing the historical high of $4,549.71 per ounce set on December 24 of the previous year [1][5] - The increase in gold prices is primarily driven by heightened investor concerns over global uncertainties, particularly following U.S. military actions in Venezuela, which have triggered widespread risk-averse sentiment and significant capital inflows into the precious metals market [1][5] Technical Analysis of Gold - The long-term upward trend in gold has not fundamentally changed, with the previous high of $4,550 not yet effectively tested, and there has been no significant corrective movement since the price began rising from lower levels [6] - The 4-hour chart indicates a strong bullish alignment of moving averages, with the 5-day and 10-day moving averages providing robust support, limiting the potential for short-term pullbacks [7] - The key support level is identified at $4,460, which is crucial for determining market strength; if this level holds, it is recommended to establish long positions targeting $4,520 and $4,550 [7] Technical Analysis of Silver - Silver has reached a high of $82.7, with strong bullish momentum, and the long-term upward trend remains intact [8] - However, due to short-term price increases and divergence in technical indicators, a phase of adjustment is likely, which is considered a healthy correction within the overall upward trend [8] - The critical support level is at $77.5, which serves as both a previous consolidation point and an important defense level for short-term pullbacks; it is advisable to focus on long positions near this support level [8]

Market Analysis - On December 24, spot gold prices closed at approximately $4479.42 per ounce, having reached a historical high of $4525 during the day, while U.S. gold futures settled around $4505 [1][5] - The trading liquidity was thin due to the Christmas holiday, leading to a calm market atmosphere, with gold prices fluctuating between $4450 and $4500 [1][5] - This stable performance is described as a natural consolidation phase following a strong upward trend, with many traders locking in profits as the year ends [1][5] - Despite this brief pause, the overall upward momentum of gold remains intact, reflecting the market's digestion of approximately 70% gains for the year and building potential for a breakout in the new year [1][5] - High prices have pressured jewelry demand, resulting in a decline in consumption, while investment demand for gold bars and coins remains relatively robust, highlighting a structural shift in the global gold market [1][5] Technical Analysis of Gold - Gold is currently in a strong bullish trend, with a recommendation to maintain long positions without attempting to predict a peak [2][6] - The week has seen a pattern of initial gains followed by corrections, with a notable low of $4450 observed [2][6] - On Friday, gold prices continued to reach new highs, approaching $4531, indicating the strength of the upward trend [2][6] - It is advised to wait for pullbacks to enter long positions, particularly after Asian trading sessions, with technical support identified around $4460 [2][7] Technical Analysis of Silver - Silver has reached a high of $75, with daily new highs being recorded, maintaining a bullish trend [3][8] - The recommendation is to adopt a long position on any pullbacks, with a short-term focus, and support identified at $72.5 for potential buying opportunities [3][8]

Core Insights - The current focus of the market is on the upcoming U.S. non-farm payroll report, which is expected to provide insights into the Federal Reserve's future policy direction [1][2] Group 1: Gold Price Movement - Spot gold prices have decreased by 0.4%, settling at $3545.33 per ounce, while U.S. gold futures fell by 0.9% to $3603.70 [2] - Gold prices previously surged to a historical peak of $3578.50, driven by weak job vacancy indicators that bolstered expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut [2] - The market is currently pricing in the Fed's rate cut expectations, making the upcoming non-farm payroll report a critical variable for market direction [2] Group 2: Technical Analysis - Since the beginning of the upward trend last year, gold prices have successfully tested the midline support for the fourth time, indicating strong upward momentum [3] - Despite a recent failure to maintain upward momentum, the bullish sentiment remains intact as prices have not fallen below the 5-day moving average [3] - Key support levels for potential re-entry include $3500, $3447, and the 30-week moving average, while upward targets are set at $3700 and $4000 [3]

Group 1 - Gold prices fell to a one-month low as trade tensions between major economies eased, leading to suppressed demand and investors awaiting U.S. economic data for interest rate direction [1][2] - Spot gold decreased by 0.33% to $3167.04 per ounce, reaching its lowest level since April 10, while U.S. gold futures dropped by 0.52% to $3171.3 per ounce [1] - Analysts indicate that the market is in an overbought state, with short positions increasing significantly [1] Group 2 - President Trump’s comments on Iran nearing a nuclear deal further reduced demand for gold [2] - Market focus shifted to the U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) data, with attention on Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's upcoming speech for clues on interest rate paths [2] - Expectations for a 50 basis point rate cut this year, starting in October, could lead to stronger performance for non-yielding gold [3] Group 3 - Gold has broken below the double top neckline support, indicating potential short-term downside risk, with price expectations moving towards the $3000 - $3050 range [3] - Key chart support at $3190 has been breached, suggesting a continued corrective move in gold prices [3] - Other precious metals also saw declines, with spot silver down 1% to $31.89 per ounce, palladium down 0.2% to $949.07 per ounce, and platinum steady at $976 per ounce [3]

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices have rebounded over 2% due to a weaker dollar and renewed concerns over global trade impacts from President Trump's new tariffs on films [1] Group 1: Market Reactions - Gold prices increased by over 2.3% for spot gold and 2.4% for U.S. gold futures [1] - The U.S. dollar index fell by 0.4%, contributing to the rise in gold prices [1] Group 2: Economic Context - Concerns over a global trade war have been reignited by Trump's announcement of a 100% tariff on films produced outside the U.S. [1] - Analysts suggest that the weaker dollar is favorable for gold, especially after last week's U.S. GDP data came in below expectations [1] - There is growing speculation among investors that the Federal Reserve may lower interest rates more quickly, influenced by the recent decline in oil prices [1]