报告导读： 9 月 A 股持续演绎慢牛行情，反内卷政策效果在 8 月 PPI 数据已有所显现， 各主要宽基指数全月继续上涨。我们建议后续基金配置在整体维持均衡风格的前提下，适 度偏向成长，从大类资产配置角度来看可以对黄金和美股相关 ETF 进行一定配置。 基金投资策略 以上内容节选自国泰海通证券已发布的证券研究报告。 报告名称： 国泰海通证券10月基金投资策略；报告日期：2025.10.10 报告作者： 江涛（分析师），登记编号：S0880525040067 倪韵婷（分析师），登记编号：S0880525040097 重要提醒 本订阅号所载内容仅面向国泰海通证券研究服务签约客户。因本资料暂时无法设置访问限制，根据《证 券期货投资者适当性管理办法》的要求，若您并非国泰海通证券研究服务签约客户，为保证服务质量、 控制投资风险，还请取消关注，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。我们对由此给您造成的 不便表示诚挚歉意，非常感谢您的理解与配合！如有任何疑问，敬请按照文末联系方式与我们联系。 法律声明 股混基金： 9 月份，制造业 PMI 为 49.8% ，比上月上升 0.4 个百分点，与过去三年同期均值大体相当，涨 ...

Core Viewpoint - The domestic economy showed strong resilience in the second quarter, and with the central government's ongoing "anti-involution" policy, the A-share market continued its upward trend in July, suggesting a shift towards growth-oriented fund allocation while emphasizing the importance of stock selection and risk control by fund managers [1][2]. Fund Investment Strategy - **Equity Mixed Funds**: In July, the manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, aligning with seasonal trends. The long-standing economic transformation pains and high risk-free returns have hindered stock market performance and investor sentiment. Despite these challenges, stock prices reflect investor expectations for the future, and there is potential for new highs in stock indices. It is recommended to increase Chinese equity positions during market pullbacks, focusing on technology growth, cyclical consumption recovery, and high-dividend sectors [2]. - **Bond Funds**: With narrowing trend trading opportunities, there is a need to focus on trading opportunities in the bond market. This includes short-term adjustments driven by market sentiment and structural strategies involving 30-year and 10-year government bonds to enhance portfolio returns. As the equity market recovers, fixed income plus funds also hold certain allocation value [3]. - **QDII and Commodity Funds**: Looking ahead, global central bank gold purchases indicate a long-term trend reflecting changes in the global monetary system. The rise of trade protectionism and global economic restructuring will increase economic differentiation, supporting demand for gold. The current gold bull market is characterized by different driving factors and pricing frameworks, suggesting a potentially long cycle. Therefore, it is advisable to consider allocating to gold ETFs for long-term and hedging investments [3].

Core Viewpoint - A-shares continue to rebound in May, supported by a series of favorable policies, with a recommendation for fund allocation to maintain a balanced style while slightly favoring growth and focusing on fund managers' stock selection and risk control capabilities [1][2]. Fund Investment Strategy - In May, the manufacturing PMI was 49.5%, an increase of 0.5 percentage points from the previous month, aligning with the levels of the past three years. The internal resolution of low inflation is crucial, as external factors are less significant due to China's manufacturing competitiveness [2]. - The strategy team believes that emerging technology remains a long-term mainstay in the A-share market, while cyclical finance may become a dark horse. Additionally, cyclical products with improved competitive dynamics and tight supply-demand logic, as well as new consumption areas driven by demand and innovation, are also worth attention [2]. - The market structure of value and growth styles will likely continue to present structural investment opportunities in 2024, suggesting a slight preference for growth in fund allocation while maintaining overall balance [2]. Bond Funds - June is a critical transition period for strategies, recommending a combination of liquidity and yield in position selection, and to prepare for the next round of interest rate declines by switching to more liquid varieties [3]. - With the recovery of the equity market, fixed income plus funds also hold certain allocation value, warranting continued attention [3]. QDII and Commodity Funds - Global central banks' gold purchasing behavior reflects a long-term and ongoing trend, indicating a restructuring of the global monetary system due to changes in trust foundations [3]. - The rise of trade protectionism and the restructuring of the global economy will increase economic differentiation, supporting residents' demand for gold [3]. - The current gold bull market is characterized by different driving factors and pricing frameworks, suggesting a potentially long cycle for the bull market, thus recommending appropriate allocation to gold ETFs from a long-term and hedging investment perspective [3].

Group 1 - The A-share market is gradually stabilizing and recovering after the impact of "reciprocal tariffs," with a slight decline for the month. It is suggested that future fund allocations maintain a balanced style while moderately leaning towards growth, emphasizing the importance of fund managers' stock selection and risk control capabilities [1][2] - In April, the manufacturing PMI was 49.0%, a decrease of 1.5 percentage points from the previous month, influenced by the drastic changes in the external environment due to trade friction. The strategy team believes that after the shock, investors' understanding of the economic situation has improved, which is crucial for the stock market's recovery [2] - The focus of Sino-US competition extends beyond economic trade to technological and productivity advantages. In the medium to long term, emerging technology remains a key theme, and the financial cycle is expected to be a dark horse under the influence of declining risk-free interest rates and new capital inflows [2] Group 2 - Global central bank gold purchasing behavior is expected to be long-term and sustained, reflecting changes in the trust foundation of the global monetary system. The rise of trade protectionism and the restructuring of the global economy will increase economic differentiation, supporting residents' demand for gold [3] - The fundamental impact of the US dollar on gold pricing has weakened but still holds some influence. If the US economy weakens, the support for gold prices will strengthen. This gold bull market is characterized by different driving factors and pricing frameworks, suggesting a potentially long cycle [3] - From a long-term investment and risk-hedging perspective, it is recommended to allocate to gold ETFs [3]