格隆汇12月15日｜中金公司研究部分析称，2024年以来，可以观测到居民定期存款增量明显放缓，同时 居民活期存款、银行理财、非货基金规模增长提速，呈现资金跷跷板特征。根据中金公司研究部数据， 可以反映出居民资金入市的趋势。展望后市，随着居民资产配置切换，理财产品能给股市带来多少增量 资金？据中金公司研究部测算，受益于含权产品发力，2026年理财机构有望提升权益资产仓位（股票 +股混基金）0.8个百分点至2.3%；2027年伴随着理财权益投研资源的持续投入，仓位有望进一步提升至 3.5%，以上合计有望为资本市场带来潜在近1万亿元的增量资金。 ...

NO.2 长江证券完成董事会换届！新增三位湖北国资代表董事 长江证券新一届董事会成员和经营管理层出炉！12月9日晚间，长江证券发布公告，选举刘正斌、陈 佳、刘元瑞、李俊喜、陈华军以及赵海涛等为该公司董事，此次选举，除刘正斌外，新增三位湖北国资 代表董事，刘正斌依然为董事长。有业内人士指出，湖北国资及股东方代表入主董事会，是今年湖北国 资受让原股东三峡集团持有长江证券股份后，正常的董事会席位交接。与此同时，长江证券在经营管理 层面也进行了换届，刘元瑞继续担任长江证券总裁，其他个别高管进行了调整，并注入新鲜血液。（券 商中国） NO.1 券商合并新进展！"国信老将"或任万和证券总经理 国信证券近日发布公告称，公司董事会审议通过《关于推荐万和证券股份有限公司总经理人选的议 案》，同意推荐顾湘晴为万和证券总经理人选。这是自国信证券获批成为万和证券主要股东以来，首次 对后者高管层面进行人事安排。根据中国证券业协会从业人员执业信息，顾湘晴是一名国信证券"老员 工"，供职已超过20年。更多公开信息显示，她长期扎根经纪业务一线，曾负责四川的分支机构工作。 2014年顾湘晴获批成为国信证券四川第二分公司负责人，后担任四川分公司 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent issuance of the "Guidelines for Performance Assessment Management of Fund Management Companies (Draft for Comments)" by regulatory authorities aims to enhance the long-term incentive and constraint mechanisms within the fund management industry, promoting a stronger alignment of interests between fund management companies and fund shareholders [2][6]. Group 1: Guidelines and Requirements - Fund management company executives and key business department heads are required to invest at least 30% of their total performance compensation in public funds managed by their company, while fund managers must invest at least 40% of their total performance compensation in the public funds they manage [2][4]. - The guidelines emphasize the concept of "performance compensation holding base," mandating that the holding period for these investments must be no less than one year [2][3]. Group 2: Self-Purchase Trends - As of December 7, 2023, 136 public fund companies have initiated self-purchases, totaling 8,400 instances, with net subscriptions for equity funds exceeding 4 billion yuan [4][6]. - Notably, Guotai Fund has recorded the highest number of self-purchases at 782 times, followed by Invesco Great Wall Fund with 607 times [4]. Group 3: Market Implications - The self-purchase trend reflects fund companies' confidence in their investment management capabilities and the long-term value of their products, which is expected to stabilize investor expectations and enhance confidence in holding [6][7]. - The focus on equity products for self-purchases indicates a positive outlook on market valuation recovery and economic fundamentals, suggesting that fund companies will prioritize long-term performance over short-term gains [6][7].

Core Viewpoint - The recent issuance of the "Guidelines for Performance Assessment Management of Fund Management Companies (Draft for Comments)" by regulatory authorities aims to enhance the long-term incentive and constraint mechanisms within the fund management industry, promoting better alignment of interests between fund management companies and fund shareholders [2][3]. Group 1: Regulatory Guidelines - The guidelines require senior management and key business department heads of fund companies to invest at least 30% of their annual performance compensation in public funds managed by their company, while fund managers must invest at least 40% of their performance compensation in the public funds they manage [2][3]. - The guidelines emphasize "performance compensation holding," mandating that the holding period for these investments must be no less than one year [2][3]. Group 2: Self-Purchase Trends - As of December 7, 2023, 136 public fund companies have initiated self-purchases, totaling 8,400 instances, with net subscriptions for equity mixed funds exceeding 4 billion yuan [3][4]. - Notably, Guotai Fund has the highest number of self-purchases at 782 times, followed by Invesco Great Wall Fund with 607 times, and several other companies exceeding 500 times [3]. Group 3: Investment Focus - The self-purchase trend indicates a strong focus on equity products, reflecting the industry's confidence in the long-term value of equity assets and expectations for market valuation recovery and economic improvement [4][5]. - Fund companies' self-purchase actions are seen as a commitment to long-term development, enhancing risk control and sustainable investment value, which may lead to improved long-term performance stability [5].

Core Insights - The A-share market has shown a slow bull trend in September, with the effects of anti-involution policies reflected in the August PPI data, leading to continued increases in major broad-based indices [1] Fund Investment Strategy - In September, the manufacturing PMI was at 49.8%, up 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, aligning with the average of the past three years for the same period, indicating seasonal growth [2] - The Chinese stock market is expected to continue its upward trajectory, with market adjustments presenting opportunities; A/H shares are anticipated to reach new highs [2] - Emerging technology remains a key investment theme, with new industries entering a new capital expenditure expansion cycle; financial sector allocations are recommended due to potential dividend returns after adjustments [2] - The shift in economic governance thinking behind anti-involution policies is expected to improve the supply-demand balance for cyclical goods [2] - Hong Kong's technology and pharmaceutical sectors are likely to continue their recovery [2] - For 2024, both value and growth styles are expected to present structural investment opportunities, suggesting a balanced fund allocation with a slight tilt towards growth [2] Bond Fund Strategy - The bond market is likely entering a stabilization phase in October, with recommendations to focus on flexible duration rate bonds and high-grade, high-liquidity credit bonds [2] - As equity markets recover, fixed income plus funds are also seen as having certain allocation value [2] QDII and Commodity Funds - Following the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, improved macro liquidity and lower real interest rates are expected to reduce the cost of holding gold, supporting its price performance [3] - While U.S. economic growth is slowing, it remains resilient, and the Fed's "preventive" monetary policy adjustments are expected to maintain a positive economic trend, supporting stable liquidity in U.S. stocks [3] - From an asset allocation perspective, U.S. stocks are seen as having a favorable risk-return ratio and tactical allocation value [3]

Core Viewpoint - The domestic economy showed strong resilience in the second quarter, and with the central government's ongoing "anti-involution" policy, the A-share market continued its upward trend in July, suggesting a shift towards growth-oriented fund allocation while emphasizing the importance of stock selection and risk control by fund managers [1][2]. Fund Investment Strategy - **Equity Mixed Funds**: In July, the manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, aligning with seasonal trends. The long-standing economic transformation pains and high risk-free returns have hindered stock market performance and investor sentiment. Despite these challenges, stock prices reflect investor expectations for the future, and there is potential for new highs in stock indices. It is recommended to increase Chinese equity positions during market pullbacks, focusing on technology growth, cyclical consumption recovery, and high-dividend sectors [2]. - **Bond Funds**: With narrowing trend trading opportunities, there is a need to focus on trading opportunities in the bond market. This includes short-term adjustments driven by market sentiment and structural strategies involving 30-year and 10-year government bonds to enhance portfolio returns. As the equity market recovers, fixed income plus funds also hold certain allocation value [3]. - **QDII and Commodity Funds**: Looking ahead, global central bank gold purchases indicate a long-term trend reflecting changes in the global monetary system. The rise of trade protectionism and global economic restructuring will increase economic differentiation, supporting demand for gold. The current gold bull market is characterized by different driving factors and pricing frameworks, suggesting a potentially long cycle. Therefore, it is advisable to consider allocating to gold ETFs for long-term and hedging investments [3].

Core Viewpoint - A-shares continue to rebound in May, supported by a series of favorable policies, with a recommendation for fund allocation to maintain a balanced style while slightly favoring growth and focusing on fund managers' stock selection and risk control capabilities [1][2]. Fund Investment Strategy - In May, the manufacturing PMI was 49.5%, an increase of 0.5 percentage points from the previous month, aligning with the levels of the past three years. The internal resolution of low inflation is crucial, as external factors are less significant due to China's manufacturing competitiveness [2]. - The strategy team believes that emerging technology remains a long-term mainstay in the A-share market, while cyclical finance may become a dark horse. Additionally, cyclical products with improved competitive dynamics and tight supply-demand logic, as well as new consumption areas driven by demand and innovation, are also worth attention [2]. - The market structure of value and growth styles will likely continue to present structural investment opportunities in 2024, suggesting a slight preference for growth in fund allocation while maintaining overall balance [2]. Bond Funds - June is a critical transition period for strategies, recommending a combination of liquidity and yield in position selection, and to prepare for the next round of interest rate declines by switching to more liquid varieties [3]. - With the recovery of the equity market, fixed income plus funds also hold certain allocation value, warranting continued attention [3]. QDII and Commodity Funds - Global central banks' gold purchasing behavior reflects a long-term and ongoing trend, indicating a restructuring of the global monetary system due to changes in trust foundations [3]. - The rise of trade protectionism and the restructuring of the global economy will increase economic differentiation, supporting residents' demand for gold [3]. - The current gold bull market is characterized by different driving factors and pricing frameworks, suggesting a potentially long cycle for the bull market, thus recommending appropriate allocation to gold ETFs from a long-term and hedging investment perspective [3].

Group 1 - The A-share market is gradually stabilizing and recovering after the impact of "reciprocal tariffs," with a slight decline for the month. It is suggested that future fund allocations maintain a balanced style while moderately leaning towards growth, emphasizing the importance of fund managers' stock selection and risk control capabilities [1][2] - In April, the manufacturing PMI was 49.0%, a decrease of 1.5 percentage points from the previous month, influenced by the drastic changes in the external environment due to trade friction. The strategy team believes that after the shock, investors' understanding of the economic situation has improved, which is crucial for the stock market's recovery [2] - The focus of Sino-US competition extends beyond economic trade to technological and productivity advantages. In the medium to long term, emerging technology remains a key theme, and the financial cycle is expected to be a dark horse under the influence of declining risk-free interest rates and new capital inflows [2] Group 2 - Global central bank gold purchasing behavior is expected to be long-term and sustained, reflecting changes in the trust foundation of the global monetary system. The rise of trade protectionism and the restructuring of the global economy will increase economic differentiation, supporting residents' demand for gold [3] - The fundamental impact of the US dollar on gold pricing has weakened but still holds some influence. If the US economy weakens, the support for gold prices will strengthen. This gold bull market is characterized by different driving factors and pricing frameworks, suggesting a potentially long cycle [3] - From a long-term investment and risk-hedging perspective, it is recommended to allocate to gold ETFs [3]