格隆汇12月15日｜中金公司研究部分析称，2024年以来，可以观测到居民定期存款增量明显放缓，同时 居民活期存款、银行理财、非货基金规模增长提速，呈现资金跷跷板特征。根据中金公司研究部数据， 可以反映出居民资金入市的趋势。展望后市，随着居民资产配置切换，理财产品能给股市带来多少增量 资金？据中金公司研究部测算，受益于含权产品发力，2026年理财机构有望提升权益资产仓位（股票 +股混基金）0.8个百分点至2.3%；2027年伴随着理财权益投研资源的持续投入，仓位有望进一步提升至 3.5%，以上合计有望为资本市场带来潜在近1万亿元的增量资金。 ...

理财 2026 年展望：存款搬家、资产配置新 叙事 SAC 执证编号：S0080522070019 SFC CE Ref：BTC623 ziyu.wang@cicc.com.cn 证券研究报告 2025.12.10 王子瑜 分析员 李少萌 分析员 张帅帅 分析员 SAC 执证编号：S0080524060011 shaomeng.li@cicc.com.cn SAC 执证编号：S0080516060001 SFC CE Ref：BHQ055 shuaishuai.zhang@cicc.com.cn 纵轴：相对值（%） 90 100 110 120 130 2024-12 2025-03 2025-06 2025-09 2025-12 沪深300 中金银行 中金一级行业：金融 资料来源：Wind，彭博资讯，中金公司研究部 观点聚焦 投资建议 2025 年，理财行业在存款搬家、存续浮盈释放的背景下，实现了 超预期的增长。进入 2026 年，理财机构将拥有多资产布局、居民 储蓄率进一步下行的发展机遇，但同时也将面对平滑估值整改的 压力。本篇报告我们基于存款搬家、居民风偏、产品货架、监管导 向、资产配置等多维度进行拆解 ...

中金研究 2025年，理财行业在存款搬家、存续浮盈释放的背景下，实现了超预期的增长。进入2026年，理财机构将拥有多资产布局、居民储蓄率进一步下行的 发展机遇，但同时也将面对平滑估值整改的压力。本篇报告我们基于存款搬家、居民风偏、产品货架、监管导向、资产配置等多维度进行拆解，以期 为理财行业呈现一个更全面的叙事逻辑。 Abstract 摘要 居民风险偏好的启示。 基于现阶段中国居民资产负债表的表现、以及日本低利率时代居民金融资产变迁的历史，我们认为在2026年居民具备风险偏好小 幅上行的条件， 居民资产配置将呈现存款活期化、产品资管化的特征；含权产品增量可期、但现阶段的增长弹性可能并算不上显著， 预计银行渠道将循 序渐进丰富产品货架。风偏的快速改善还需要依靠居民资产负债表的修复。 存款搬家具备潜力。 25年各期限零售存款平均降幅约30bp，同时居民定期存款增量明显放缓，而居民活期存款、银行理财、非货基金、非银存款规模增 长提速，呈现资金跷跷板特征。向前看，在呵护银行净息差背景下26年存款成本具备进一步下行的条件；另外，26年也将有合计32万亿元2年期及以上居 民定存到期（同比多增4万亿元），重定价幅度在70- ...

Core Insights - The overall scale of public funds reached 36.45 trillion yuan as of October 28, 2025, marking a 7.07% increase from the previous quarter and a 14.96% increase year-on-year [1] - The non-monetary fund scale totaled 22.05 trillion yuan, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 1.94 trillion yuan [1] - The top 10 fund companies collectively saw a growth of over 10.15 trillion yuan, solidifying their position as the main drivers of industry growth [1] Fund Company Rankings - E Fund and Huaxia Fund maintained their leading positions, with growth increments of 2866 million yuan and 1951 million yuan respectively, further expanding their competitive advantage [2] - The top 10 companies included seven that experienced a quarterly growth exceeding 950 million yuan, with five surpassing 1 billion yuan, indicating strong capital attraction capabilities during market recovery [3] - Southern Fund and Jiashi Fund swapped rankings, while Invesco Great Wall Fund moved up two places into the top ten, reflecting significant growth and performance [3] Competitive Landscape - The competition among mid-tier companies intensified, with several firms achieving notable growth, while招商基金 fell from 10th to 11th place due to relatively slower growth of 315.46 million yuan, approximately 5.9% [3] - The new entrant Invesco Great Wall Fund achieved a growth of 973.75 million yuan, over three times that of招商基金, highlighting the competitive nature of the rankings [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Leading the Market - A" for the non-bank financial industry [1] Core Viewpoints - The non-bank financial industry has shown significant performance over the past year, with a focus on the growth of equity and fund distribution [2][4] - The recent release of the "Classification Evaluation Regulations for Futures Companies" by the CSRC aims to enhance regulatory effectiveness and promote risk management within the industry [4][11] - The report highlights the growth in the scale of equity product distribution, with significant increases in various fund categories compared to the end of 2024 [5][12] Summary by Relevant Sections Investment Suggestions - The report emphasizes the importance of the newly released regulations for futures companies, which include improvements in the scoring mechanism and the optimization of the evaluation system to enhance service to the real economy [11][25] Market Review - The major indices experienced varying degrees of increase, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 1.52% and the CSI 300 Index by 1.38% during the week [13] - The non-bank financial index saw a slight increase of 0.28%, ranking 24th among 31 primary industries [13] Key Industry Data Tracking 1) Market Performance and Scale - The total trading volume in A-shares reached 11.63 trillion yuan, with an average daily trading volume of 2.33 trillion yuan, reflecting a decrease of 10.63% compared to the previous period [13][18] 2) Credit Business - As of September 12, the market had 3,017.37 billion shares pledged, accounting for 3.69% of the total equity, with a margin balance of 2.34 trillion yuan, showing a 2.33% increase [18] 3) Fund Issuance - In August 2025, new fund issuance reached 1,020.22 billion units, with a notable increase in equity fund issuance [18] 4) Investment Banking Business - The equity underwriting scale in August 2025 was 234.77 billion yuan, with IPOs amounting to 40.93 billion yuan [18] 5) Bond Market - The total price index of bonds has decreased by 1.94% since the beginning of the year, with the 10-year government bond yield rising by 25.93 basis points [18] Regulatory Policies and Industry Dynamics - The report discusses the CSRC's new regulations for futures companies, which aim to refine risk management and enhance the overall competitiveness of the industry [4][25] Key Announcements from Listed Companies - Notable transactions include the completion of the acquisition of Guorong Securities by Western Securities and the establishment of a new investment partnership by Zhongyuan Securities [27]

Group 1 - The public fund distribution landscape is undergoing changes, with 57 brokerage firms making it to the top 100 list, indicating a competitive environment in fund sales [1][2] - The total sales scale of non-money market funds by the top 100 institutions has surpassed 10 trillion yuan, reflecting a nearly 7% increase compared to the previous period [2] - The sales scale of equity funds reached 5.14 trillion yuan, with a 6% increase, while the sales scale of stock index funds grew by 15% to 1.95 trillion yuan [2][3] Group 2 - Among the top 10 institutions for equity fund sales, Ant Group leads with a scale of 822.9 billion yuan, followed by China Merchants Bank and Tiantian Fund, with only two brokerages, CITIC Securities and Huatai Securities, making the list [2] - In the top 10 for non-money market fund sales, no brokerages were present, contrasting with the stock index fund sales where brokerages occupied 7 out of 10 positions [2][3] Group 3 - The significant increase in stock index funds is evident, with the total net asset value of 3,209 stock funds reaching 5 trillion yuan, up from 4.07 trillion yuan at the beginning of the year [3][4] - 23 brokerages have a stock index fund sales scale exceeding 10 billion yuan, with six brokerages surpassing 50 billion yuan, led by CITIC Securities and Huatai Securities [4] Group 4 - The ongoing fee reduction in public funds is expected to reach 30 billion yuan, which may reshape the fund distribution landscape [5][6] - The new regulations aim to lower subscription fees and optimize redemption arrangements, potentially impacting the revenue sources for sales institutions [5][6] - The overall impact of the fee reform on brokerages is considered limited, as their income from fund distribution constitutes a small percentage of total revenue [6]

Core Viewpoint - The company emphasizes the importance of adhering to central government policies and enhancing party building to support high-quality development and improve operational performance [1][5]. Group 1: Party Building and Governance - The company has strengthened its party building efforts, focusing on the implementation of the Central Eight Regulations and promoting a culture of integrity and accountability among its employees [1][2]. - A comprehensive approach to education and feedback has been adopted, enhancing employee welfare and engagement while also fostering a strong sense of community and responsibility [2]. Group 2: Support for the Real Economy - The company has actively supported the real economy, achieving a financing scale of 495.3 billion yuan, a 30% increase year-on-year, with 41.7% of total financing directed towards the real economy [2][3]. - The company has enhanced its service capabilities for key clients, including state-owned enterprises and quality private enterprises, successfully completing significant projects such as IPOs and bond issuances [3]. Group 3: Financial Services and Innovations - The company has focused on providing comprehensive financial services across various sectors, including technology, green finance, and inclusive finance, with notable financing achievements in these areas [4]. - In the technology sector, the company facilitated 144 billion yuan in financing, while in green finance, it supported projects totaling 117.5 billion yuan [4]. Group 4: Future Strategic Directions - The company is committed to implementing the "Five Major Financial Articles" strategy, aiming to enhance its role in supporting technological innovation and new productive forces [3][4]. - The company plans to further strengthen its party leadership and governance to ensure high-quality development and effective service delivery in the financial sector [5].

Core Insights - The public fund industry has achieved record highs in both overall scale and non-monetary scale as of the end of Q2 2025, reaching over 34 trillion yuan and 20 trillion yuan respectively [1][2] Group 1: Overall Fund Performance - A total of 162 public fund managers reported a combined scale of 34.05 trillion yuan, marking a 7.04% increase from Q1 2025 and a 10.76% increase year-on-year from Q2 2024 [2] - All eight major fund categories experienced quarter-on-quarter growth, with commodity funds and fund of funds (FOF) showing the highest increases of 47.79% and 10.28% respectively [2] - The total profit for all fund companies in Q2 exceeded 380 billion yuan, representing a more than 50% increase from the previous quarter [2] Group 2: Individual Fund Manager Performance - Among the 162 licensed public fund institutions, eight have assets under management (AUM) exceeding 1 trillion yuan, accounting for 4.94% of the total [3] - The top ten public fund managers collectively manage 13.33 trillion yuan, which is 40.13% of the total public fund scale, with E Fund leading at 2.04 trillion yuan [3] Group 3: Non-Monetary Fund Insights - The total non-monetary fund scale reached 20.11 trillion yuan, an increase of 1.29 trillion yuan from Q1 2025 [4] - Only two public institutions have non-monetary AUM exceeding 1 trillion yuan, while 43 institutions have AUM below 100 billion yuan [4] - The top ten non-monetary fund managers manage a combined 7.88 trillion yuan, representing 39.80% of the total non-monetary fund scale, with E Fund leading at 1.40 trillion yuan [4] Group 4: Equity Fund Contributions - Equity funds, particularly index funds, have made significant contributions, with E Fund showing the largest growth of 756.5 billion yuan in a single quarter [5] - ETFs have emerged as a major attraction, with major index ETFs like the SSE 50 ETF and CSI 300 ETF showing positive average returns in Q2 2025 [5] Group 5: Market Outlook - Multiple public funds express optimism for A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, highlighting structural opportunities in technology, consumption, and dividends [6] - The chief equity investment officer at Xinyuan Fund notes the resilience of the Chinese economy and the potential for new productivity driven by global technological revolutions [6] - Bosera Fund indicates that investor sentiment remains positive as the A-share market surpasses 3,500 points, with growth policies likely to slow but liquidity and risk appetite favoring the market [6]