Core Viewpoint - In November, China's exports in USD terms increased by 5.9% year-on-year, exceeding expectations of 3.8% and rebounding from a previous decline of -1.1% [2][46] Group 1: Export Strength in Midstream - The export growth rate rebounded significantly in November, with a 7 percentage point increase compared to the previous month, influenced by base effects and resilient demand [4][13] - The manufacturing PMI new export orders showed a substantial recovery across all industries, indicating improved export demand [4][14] - The overall growth momentum has marginally recovered to seasonal averages, with a three-month moving average of 1.1% in November, slightly below the historical average of 1.4% [4][14] Group 2: Category Analysis - Exports are strong in electromechanical products, with a cumulative year-on-year increase of 7.9% from January to November, contributing 87% to the overall export growth [8][20] - The "three main electromechanical products" (cars, ships, integrated circuits) have seen export growth rates exceeding 15% [8][21] - Labor-intensive products, in contrast, showed a cumulative year-on-year decline of -4.3% from January to November, negatively impacting overall export growth [8][20] Group 3: Regional Analysis - Exports to emerging markets are strong, while exports to the US are weak, with a year-on-year decline of -28.8% in November [29][56] - The share of exports to the US has decreased by 3.4 percentage points to 11.3%, while ASEAN's share increased by 1.1 percentage points to 17.5% [30][63] - If US import demand stabilizes, China's exports to the US may rebound significantly due to low base effects [30][31] Group 4: Future Export Resilience - In December, the elevated base may lead to a 2-3 percentage point adjustment pressure on year-on-year readings [4][37] - Leading indicators suggest a stable external demand environment, with the electronic supply chain likely to continue supporting growth [4][37] - The cumulative effects of monetary easing are expected to maintain a stable external demand environment, supporting strong resilience in electromechanical exports [4][38]

证 券 研 究 报 告 【宏观快评】 出口强在中游——11 月进出口数据点评 事 项 11 月我国以美元计算出口同比 5.9%，预期 3.8%，前值-1.1%；11 月以美元计 价进口同比 1.9%，预期 3%，前值 1.0%。 主要观点 核心观点： 1）11 月出口增速反弹超预期（较上月高 7 个点）有基数的影响（5 个点左右）， 也有需求韧性的支撑。一是 11 月我国制造业 PMI 新出口订单大幅修复且各行 业全面回升，二是出口边际增长动能有所恢复。9-11 月环比平均 1.1%，与历 史同期均值相近，Q3 出口月度环比均值仅有 0.4%（大幅低于过去十年同期平 均 1.4%）。 2）品类来看，出口强在机电（对应中游制造），弱在劳密。1-11 月，我国机电 产品出口累计同比 7.9%，2024 年为 7.4%，其中，"机电三样"（车、船、集成 电路）出口增速均在 15%以上。 3）往后看，①月度视角下，12 月基数抬升，或带来同比读数 2-3 个点的调整 压力。②季度视角下，领先指标显示外需环境稳健，电子链或继续助力增长。 ③半年至一年维度下，货币宽松累积效应驱动的稳定外需环境+机电出口景 气，或支撑出口 ...

Core Viewpoint - The electric shipping industry in China is entering a phase of rapid development, driven by green emissions reduction and intelligent efficiency, as demonstrated by the launch of the "ship, shore, cloud" zero-carbon shipping and smart port integration solution by CATL's electric shipping technology company [1] Group 1: Industry Development - The electric shipping industry in China is accelerating its development, with demonstration routes being opened in various regions, such as the green smart demonstration route from Shanghai's Pudong Waigaoqiao Port to Suzhou Port, which is approximately 200 kilometers long [1] - The operation of electric vessels on this route can reduce carbon dioxide emissions by 6.37 tons per round trip, leading to an annual reduction of over 400 tons of CO2 emissions [1] Group 2: Challenges Faced - The electric shipping industry faces several challenges, including the separation of power, refueling, and maintenance responsibilities among different suppliers, leading to inefficiencies and unclear accountability [1] - Other systemic issues include high initial purchase costs, insufficient refueling infrastructure, range anxiety, complex water conditions, and a lack of unified technical standards, which create operational difficulties for shipowners [1] Group 3: Integrated Solutions - CATL's "ship, shore, cloud" integrated solution aims to address these challenges by providing a comprehensive system that includes onboard power systems, shore-based refueling networks, and cloud-based intelligent management [1][2] - The onboard systems integrate battery systems, power systems, and intelligent navigation systems to ensure stable and long-term operation of vessels [2] Group 4: Market Adoption - CATL has delivered nearly 900 electric vessels, including passenger ships, research vessels, and tugboats, with various regions in China exploring pilot applications for electric vessels [3] - The Pudong New District in Shanghai is actively promoting the digital, intelligent, and green transformation of shipping, while Fujian Province is exploring the gradual replacement of traditional fishing auxiliary vessels with electric ones [3] - The shipping industry in China is increasing its focus on digitalization, intelligence, and greening, with expectations for broader and more systematic growth in the electric shipping sector as battery swap technology and intelligent systems advance [3]

Group 1 - The ninth International Workshop on Advanced Computing Intelligence and Intelligent Information Processing (IWACIII 2025) opened in Zhuhai, focusing on the technological revolution driven by large models and aiming to connect global academic resources with industry needs [1][3] - The conference aims to promote deep cooperation among government, industry, academia, research, and application, leveraging Zhuhai's strategic location in the Greater Bay Area to facilitate the application of academic achievements in real industries [3] - The conference features a diverse exchange ecosystem, including 14 keynote speeches and 34 parallel sessions covering topics from basic algorithms to industrial applications, along with unique segments like the "Beauty of System Control" forum and an AI challenge to stimulate youth innovation [4] Group 2 - Yuan Guang Software Co., Ltd., based in Zhuhai High-tech Zone, is actively participating in the integration of industry and academia, focusing on innovation and talent as the foundation for development [3] - The conference committee will organize visits to local leading enterprises such as Yuan Guang Software and Cloud洲 Intelligent Technology to facilitate direct engagement with industry needs [3]

Core Insights - China has established itself as a dominant player in the shipbuilding industry, accounting for half of the global new ship orders, with significant implications for global shipping and logistics [1][9] - The tightening of global supply chains by 2025 will create higher barriers for American goods entering the Asia-Pacific region, impacting trade dynamics [2][15] - China's strategy involves subtle regulatory changes rather than overt tariffs, positioning itself as a key player in maritime logistics and supply chain management [2][11] Group 1: Industry Dynamics - Major shipping companies like Maersk and Evergreen are likely negotiating new orders with Chinese shipyards to reduce costs, while smaller companies face higher expenses and may exit the market [8][4] - The interconnectedness of ports, shipbuilding, and logistics gives China significant leverage, allowing it to dictate terms and pricing in the maritime industry [6][9] - The shift in rules and costs is seen as a form of soft power, where China maintains control without direct confrontation [11][15] Group 2: Market Implications - American companies now face a choice between investing in new ships or incurring higher operational costs, which will ultimately shape market behavior [15][17] - The evolving landscape suggests that companies must adapt to new regulations and costs, as the competitive environment increasingly favors those who align with China's maritime capabilities [13][15] - The ongoing strategic competition indicates that the rules of engagement in maritime trade are changing, with significant implications for future trade relations [17]

Group 1 - The report indicates that the "bull market atmosphere" is continuously strengthening, with the main logic of "anti-involution" significantly improving the supply-demand structure for midstream manufacturing in 2026 [6][14] - The report suggests that the conditions for residents to fully allocate equity are still lacking, but the profit effect is accelerating, potentially leading to an earlier time for comprehensive incremental speculation in A-shares [6][14] - The report recommends actively seeking new structural opportunities in the current market phase, which is seen as a transitional stage for the market to find the main structure of the bull market [6][14] Group 2 - The report highlights the "iron triangle" stocks: Ruike Laser, Giant Network, and Heng Rui Medicine, which are expected to perform well due to their strong market positions and growth potential [6][17] - Other recommended stocks include: Pengding Holdings, Yangnong Chemical, Sun Paper, Zhongmin Resources, China Shipbuilding, Maifusi (Hong Kong), and Jianfa International Group (Hong Kong) [6][17] - The report emphasizes the importance of technology with industrial trend catalysts and midstream manufacturing with improved supply-demand dynamics as key investment themes [6][14] Group 3 - The previous stock combination from July 1 to July 31, 2025, achieved a return of 5.11%, with A-shares averaging a 3.53% increase, while the Hang Seng Index saw an increase of 2.91% [6][2] - Since the first release of the stock combination on March 28, 2017, the cumulative increase has reached 322.85%, with A-shares up 251.34% and Hong Kong stocks up 809.47% [6][2] - The report provides detailed performance metrics for the recommended stocks, including market capitalization and price changes, indicating a strong performance relative to benchmarks [6][15]

Group 1: Domestic Demand - New housing and passenger vehicle sales are recovering, while second-hand housing remains weak; the average sales price of home appliances has mostly declined year-on-year [3] - Post-holiday service consumption has cooled down, with movie box office revenues declining and hotel revenues per available room continuing to drop [4] - The retail of passenger vehicles has turned from decline to growth, while wholesale has seen a decrease; the operating rate of semi-steel tires has rebounded [3] Group 2: External Demand - The intensity of "export grabbing" is weakening, with the U.S. imposing tariffs on steel household appliances [5] - High-frequency export indicators in June have all declined, indicating an overall slowdown in exports [6] - Concerns over the expiration of reciprocal tariffs in July have led to a decrease in container bookings to the U.S. from China [7] Group 3: Production - The manufacturing sector is showing clear signs of off-season characteristics, with employment in manufacturing reaching a new low [9] - The operating rates of blast furnaces and electric furnaces have continued to decline, with rebar production decreasing and steel prices showing weak fluctuations [10] - The blue-collar employment index in manufacturing has been below last year's levels for six consecutive weeks, reaching a historical low [11] Group 4: Prices - Prices of major commodities have generally rebounded; domestic cement and rebar prices have increased, while glass and thermal coal prices have continued to decline [12] - The conflict between Israel and Iran has escalated, raising concerns about oil supply disruptions and pushing oil prices up significantly [13] - Geopolitical tensions and changes in U.S. tariff policies have increased global uncertainty, driving gold prices to fluctuate upwards [14]

Core Insights - A US trade team is expected to visit India next month for trade negotiations, with a potential temporary trade agreement by June 25 [1] - India is proposing significant tariff reductions in certain areas while seeking to maintain high tariffs on sensitive agricultural products like grains and dairy [1][2] - The negotiations are still in early stages and may become complicated due to opposition from affected industries [2] Group 1: Trade Negotiations - India has indicated a flexible stance on tariffs for less sensitive agricultural products like almonds and may reduce import duties on oil and gas by 2.5% to 3% [1] - The Indian trade representatives are firm on retaining high tariffs on core agricultural products such as wheat, rice, corn, and dairy [1] - Current tariffs imposed by India include 70%-80% on US rice and 30%-60% on US dairy products [1] Group 2: International Context - India has a history of protecting its dairy industry, being the largest milk producer globally, and has pushed for similar protections in recent trade agreements [2] - Other countries like South Korea and Japan are also engaged in tariff negotiations with the US, focusing on sectors like steel, aluminum, and automobiles [2] - The US has shown a cautious approach towards reviewing tariff measures, particularly in the automotive sector, while being receptive to cooperation in shipbuilding with Japan [2]

Group 1 - The U.S. trade representative met with major South Korean shipbuilding companies to discuss potential collaboration in the industry [1] - South Korean shipbuilders are benefiting from order transfers due to U.S. restrictions on China's shipbuilding industry, leading to increased profits [1] - HD Hyundai Heavy Industries is collaborating with U.S. shipbuilder Huntington Ingalls Industries to enhance productivity and promote advanced technology projects [1] Group 2 - As of the first quarter of 2025, South Korea's three major shipyards have accumulated orders amounting to $137.258 billion, potentially challenging historical highs [2] - The revival of the U.S. shipbuilding industry faces significant challenges due to years of decline, requiring substantial investment and time to meet standards [2] - Training skilled workers to build advanced modern ships will take many years, according to HD Hyundai Heavy Industries [2]