（来源：荔枝新闻） 转自：荔枝新闻 【#谁懂在麦哲伦海峡看到无锡制造#！小伙#穿越麦哲伦海峡发现坐的船无锡造# 】2月15日，网 友"JacyBryan闯地球"发帖表示，自己在穿越麦哲伦海峡时，发现所乘船只是由家乡无锡制造的。他感 叹：麦哲伦1520年坐着西班牙王室提供的船穿越这里，现在的我穿越大半个地球来到这边，坐着来自我 老家的船穿越麦哲伦海峡，真是有种奇妙的感觉。据了解，江苏省无锡船厂有限公司始建于1956年5月1 日，原名江苏省无锡船舶修理厂，不仅是一家历史悠久的无锡企业，还是江苏省造船骨干企业，外贸船 舶出口的重要基地。 ...

Group 1: Industry Developments - China plans to develop more "Space+" future industries, focusing on commercial aerospace and related applications, with initiatives including space resource development and space tourism [1] - The State Council issued a plan to accelerate the cultivation of new growth points in service consumption, targeting key areas such as transportation, home services, and inbound consumption [3][4] Group 2: Company News - Guizhou Moutai denied rumors of participating in SpaceX's Series A financing, with its stock closing at 1437.72 CNY per share, up 8.61%, and a market cap exceeding 1.8 trillion CNY [2] - Jiangbolong expects a net profit of 1.25 billion to 1.55 billion CNY for 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 150.66% to 210.82% due to rising storage prices driven by AI server demand [2] - BlueFocus anticipates a net profit of 180 million to 220 million CNY for 2025, recovering from a loss of 290 million CNY in the previous year, supported by growth in overseas business [3] - Sichuan Gold forecasts a net profit of 420 million to 480 million CNY for 2025, a year-on-year increase of 69.23% to 93.4%, attributed to increased sales of gold concentrate and rising gold prices [7] - Green Harmony expects a net profit of 115 million to 130 million CNY for 2025, reflecting a growth of 104.74% to 131.45%, driven by the recovery in the industrial robot market and expansion in overseas markets [8] - Shengyi Technology predicts a net profit of 3.25 billion to 3.45 billion CNY for 2025, with an increase of 87% to 98% due to rising sales of copper-clad laminates [9] - China Shipbuilding anticipates a net profit of 7 billion to 8.4 billion CNY for 2025, representing a growth of approximately 65.89% to 99.07%, driven by improved operational efficiency and high-value ship deliveries [10] - Century Huatong expects a net profit of 5.55 billion to 6.98 billion CNY for 2025, a significant increase of 357% to 475%, supported by continuous revenue growth and successful overseas expansion [11]

Core Viewpoint - In November, China's exports in USD terms increased by 5.9% year-on-year, exceeding expectations of 3.8% and rebounding from a previous decline of -1.1% [2][46] Group 1: Export Strength in Midstream - The export growth rate rebounded significantly in November, with a 7 percentage point increase compared to the previous month, influenced by base effects and resilient demand [4][13] - The manufacturing PMI new export orders showed a substantial recovery across all industries, indicating improved export demand [4][14] - The overall growth momentum has marginally recovered to seasonal averages, with a three-month moving average of 1.1% in November, slightly below the historical average of 1.4% [4][14] Group 2: Category Analysis - Exports are strong in electromechanical products, with a cumulative year-on-year increase of 7.9% from January to November, contributing 87% to the overall export growth [8][20] - The "three main electromechanical products" (cars, ships, integrated circuits) have seen export growth rates exceeding 15% [8][21] - Labor-intensive products, in contrast, showed a cumulative year-on-year decline of -4.3% from January to November, negatively impacting overall export growth [8][20] Group 3: Regional Analysis - Exports to emerging markets are strong, while exports to the US are weak, with a year-on-year decline of -28.8% in November [29][56] - The share of exports to the US has decreased by 3.4 percentage points to 11.3%, while ASEAN's share increased by 1.1 percentage points to 17.5% [30][63] - If US import demand stabilizes, China's exports to the US may rebound significantly due to low base effects [30][31] Group 4: Future Export Resilience - In December, the elevated base may lead to a 2-3 percentage point adjustment pressure on year-on-year readings [4][37] - Leading indicators suggest a stable external demand environment, with the electronic supply chain likely to continue supporting growth [4][37] - The cumulative effects of monetary easing are expected to maintain a stable external demand environment, supporting strong resilience in electromechanical exports [4][38]

Group 1: Export Performance - In November, China's exports increased by 5.9% year-on-year in USD terms, exceeding the expected 3.8% and rebounding from a previous decline of -1.1%[1] - The month-on-month export growth in November was 8.2%, higher than the historical average of 5.6% over the past five years[1] - Cumulative exports from January to November showed a year-on-year increase of 5.4%, slightly up from 5.3% in October[1] Group 2: Sector Analysis - Exports in the machinery and electronics sector grew by 7.9% year-on-year from January to November, contributing 4.7 percentage points to overall export growth[2] - The "three major machinery and electronics" products (cars, ships, integrated circuits) saw export growth rates exceeding 15%[2] - Labor-intensive products experienced a decline of -4.3% year-on-year from January to November, negatively impacting overall export growth by 0.7 percentage points[2] Group 3: Regional Insights - Exports to emerging markets increased by 11.1% year-on-year from January to November, contributing 5.2 percentage points to overall export growth[3] - Exports to the United States fell by -18.9% year-on-year, dragging down overall export growth by 2.8 percentage points[3] - The share of exports to the U.S. decreased by 3.4 percentage points to 11.3%, while ASEAN's share increased by 1.1 percentage points to 17.5%[3] Group 4: Future Outlook - December's export growth may face adjustment pressure due to a higher base, with projections suggesting a year-on-year decline to the 3%-4% range[4] - Leading indicators suggest a stable external demand environment, with potential support from the electronics supply chain for continued growth[4] - The cumulative effects of monetary easing are expected to stabilize external demand and support resilient export performance over the next six months to a year[4]

Core Viewpoint - The electric shipping industry in China is entering a phase of rapid development, driven by green emissions reduction and intelligent efficiency, as demonstrated by the launch of the "ship, shore, cloud" zero-carbon shipping and smart port integration solution by CATL's electric shipping technology company [1] Group 1: Industry Development - The electric shipping industry in China is accelerating its development, with demonstration routes being opened in various regions, such as the green smart demonstration route from Shanghai's Pudong Waigaoqiao Port to Suzhou Port, which is approximately 200 kilometers long [1] - The operation of electric vessels on this route can reduce carbon dioxide emissions by 6.37 tons per round trip, leading to an annual reduction of over 400 tons of CO2 emissions [1] Group 2: Challenges Faced - The electric shipping industry faces several challenges, including the separation of power, refueling, and maintenance responsibilities among different suppliers, leading to inefficiencies and unclear accountability [1] - Other systemic issues include high initial purchase costs, insufficient refueling infrastructure, range anxiety, complex water conditions, and a lack of unified technical standards, which create operational difficulties for shipowners [1] Group 3: Integrated Solutions - CATL's "ship, shore, cloud" integrated solution aims to address these challenges by providing a comprehensive system that includes onboard power systems, shore-based refueling networks, and cloud-based intelligent management [1][2] - The onboard systems integrate battery systems, power systems, and intelligent navigation systems to ensure stable and long-term operation of vessels [2] Group 4: Market Adoption - CATL has delivered nearly 900 electric vessels, including passenger ships, research vessels, and tugboats, with various regions in China exploring pilot applications for electric vessels [3] - The Pudong New District in Shanghai is actively promoting the digital, intelligent, and green transformation of shipping, while Fujian Province is exploring the gradual replacement of traditional fishing auxiliary vessels with electric ones [3] - The shipping industry in China is increasing its focus on digitalization, intelligence, and greening, with expectations for broader and more systematic growth in the electric shipping sector as battery swap technology and intelligent systems advance [3]

Group 1 - The ninth International Workshop on Advanced Computing Intelligence and Intelligent Information Processing (IWACIII 2025) opened in Zhuhai, focusing on the technological revolution driven by large models and aiming to connect global academic resources with industry needs [1][3] - The conference aims to promote deep cooperation among government, industry, academia, research, and application, leveraging Zhuhai's strategic location in the Greater Bay Area to facilitate the application of academic achievements in real industries [3] - The conference features a diverse exchange ecosystem, including 14 keynote speeches and 34 parallel sessions covering topics from basic algorithms to industrial applications, along with unique segments like the "Beauty of System Control" forum and an AI challenge to stimulate youth innovation [4] Group 2 - Yuan Guang Software Co., Ltd., based in Zhuhai High-tech Zone, is actively participating in the integration of industry and academia, focusing on innovation and talent as the foundation for development [3] - The conference committee will organize visits to local leading enterprises such as Yuan Guang Software and Cloud洲 Intelligent Technology to facilitate direct engagement with industry needs [3]

Core Insights - China has established itself as a dominant player in the shipbuilding industry, accounting for half of the global new ship orders, with significant implications for global shipping and logistics [1][9] - The tightening of global supply chains by 2025 will create higher barriers for American goods entering the Asia-Pacific region, impacting trade dynamics [2][15] - China's strategy involves subtle regulatory changes rather than overt tariffs, positioning itself as a key player in maritime logistics and supply chain management [2][11] Group 1: Industry Dynamics - Major shipping companies like Maersk and Evergreen are likely negotiating new orders with Chinese shipyards to reduce costs, while smaller companies face higher expenses and may exit the market [8][4] - The interconnectedness of ports, shipbuilding, and logistics gives China significant leverage, allowing it to dictate terms and pricing in the maritime industry [6][9] - The shift in rules and costs is seen as a form of soft power, where China maintains control without direct confrontation [11][15] Group 2: Market Implications - American companies now face a choice between investing in new ships or incurring higher operational costs, which will ultimately shape market behavior [15][17] - The evolving landscape suggests that companies must adapt to new regulations and costs, as the competitive environment increasingly favors those who align with China's maritime capabilities [13][15] - The ongoing strategic competition indicates that the rules of engagement in maritime trade are changing, with significant implications for future trade relations [17]

Group 1 - The report indicates that the "bull market atmosphere" is continuously strengthening, with the main logic of "anti-involution" significantly improving the supply-demand structure for midstream manufacturing in 2026 [6][14] - The report suggests that the conditions for residents to fully allocate equity are still lacking, but the profit effect is accelerating, potentially leading to an earlier time for comprehensive incremental speculation in A-shares [6][14] - The report recommends actively seeking new structural opportunities in the current market phase, which is seen as a transitional stage for the market to find the main structure of the bull market [6][14] Group 2 - The report highlights the "iron triangle" stocks: Ruike Laser, Giant Network, and Heng Rui Medicine, which are expected to perform well due to their strong market positions and growth potential [6][17] - Other recommended stocks include: Pengding Holdings, Yangnong Chemical, Sun Paper, Zhongmin Resources, China Shipbuilding, Maifusi (Hong Kong), and Jianfa International Group (Hong Kong) [6][17] - The report emphasizes the importance of technology with industrial trend catalysts and midstream manufacturing with improved supply-demand dynamics as key investment themes [6][14] Group 3 - The previous stock combination from July 1 to July 31, 2025, achieved a return of 5.11%, with A-shares averaging a 3.53% increase, while the Hang Seng Index saw an increase of 2.91% [6][2] - Since the first release of the stock combination on March 28, 2017, the cumulative increase has reached 322.85%, with A-shares up 251.34% and Hong Kong stocks up 809.47% [6][2] - The report provides detailed performance metrics for the recommended stocks, including market capitalization and price changes, indicating a strong performance relative to benchmarks [6][15]

Group 1: Domestic Demand - New housing and passenger vehicle sales are recovering, while second-hand housing remains weak; the average sales price of home appliances has mostly declined year-on-year [3] - Post-holiday service consumption has cooled down, with movie box office revenues declining and hotel revenues per available room continuing to drop [4] - The retail of passenger vehicles has turned from decline to growth, while wholesale has seen a decrease; the operating rate of semi-steel tires has rebounded [3] Group 2: External Demand - The intensity of "export grabbing" is weakening, with the U.S. imposing tariffs on steel household appliances [5] - High-frequency export indicators in June have all declined, indicating an overall slowdown in exports [6] - Concerns over the expiration of reciprocal tariffs in July have led to a decrease in container bookings to the U.S. from China [7] Group 3: Production - The manufacturing sector is showing clear signs of off-season characteristics, with employment in manufacturing reaching a new low [9] - The operating rates of blast furnaces and electric furnaces have continued to decline, with rebar production decreasing and steel prices showing weak fluctuations [10] - The blue-collar employment index in manufacturing has been below last year's levels for six consecutive weeks, reaching a historical low [11] Group 4: Prices - Prices of major commodities have generally rebounded; domestic cement and rebar prices have increased, while glass and thermal coal prices have continued to decline [12] - The conflict between Israel and Iran has escalated, raising concerns about oil supply disruptions and pushing oil prices up significantly [13] - Geopolitical tensions and changes in U.S. tariff policies have increased global uncertainty, driving gold prices to fluctuate upwards [14]

Core Insights - A US trade team is expected to visit India next month for trade negotiations, with a potential temporary trade agreement by June 25 [1] - India is proposing significant tariff reductions in certain areas while seeking to maintain high tariffs on sensitive agricultural products like grains and dairy [1][2] - The negotiations are still in early stages and may become complicated due to opposition from affected industries [2] Group 1: Trade Negotiations - India has indicated a flexible stance on tariffs for less sensitive agricultural products like almonds and may reduce import duties on oil and gas by 2.5% to 3% [1] - The Indian trade representatives are firm on retaining high tariffs on core agricultural products such as wheat, rice, corn, and dairy [1] - Current tariffs imposed by India include 70%-80% on US rice and 30%-60% on US dairy products [1] Group 2: International Context - India has a history of protecting its dairy industry, being the largest milk producer globally, and has pushed for similar protections in recent trade agreements [2] - Other countries like South Korea and Japan are also engaged in tariff negotiations with the US, focusing on sectors like steel, aluminum, and automobiles [2] - The US has shown a cautious approach towards reviewing tariff measures, particularly in the automotive sector, while being receptive to cooperation in shipbuilding with Japan [2]