| | | 占比% | | --- | --- | --- | | 股票家数（只） | 1213 | 23.7 | | 总市值（十亿元） | 18472.5 | 18.0 | | 流通市值（十亿 | 16882.3 | 18.1 | | 行业指数 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | % | 1m | 6m | 12m | | 绝对表现 | 4.7 | 18.6 | 53.1 | | 相对表现 | -3.6 | 3.0 | 15.9 | 资料来源：公司数据、招商证券 相关报告 PPI 触底，全面进攻 大消费组九月消费金股 研究部/消费品 证券研究报告 | 行业简评报告 2025 年 09 月 01 日 推荐（维持） 行业规模 1、《招商证券 8 月港股消费观察：蓄势 待发》2025-08-18 2、《大消费组"消费的方向"八月观点— 国补、生育补与创新药》2025-08-01 3、《招商证券 7 月消费新观察：关注边 际改善与出口链复苏》2025-07-17 | 陈书慧 | S1090523010003 | | --- | --- | | chenshuhui@cmschin ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [4] Core Insights - The report highlights strong expansion in tea beverage brands and active growth in Western fast food, with average transaction prices stabilizing month-on-month [5][8][10] Summary by Sections Western Fast Food - The expansion of Western fast food is active, with average transaction prices remaining stable, indicating market resilience [8] - Notable trends in net store openings for major brands include: - KFC: -0.4% in August 2024 - McDonald's: 0.2% in August 2024 - Pizza Hut: -1.8% in August 2024 - Domino's: 0.0% in August 2024 [8] Tea Beverage - Leading brands in the tea beverage sector are expanding significantly, while overall average transaction prices are fluctuating as they seek balance [10] - Key trends in net store openings for major tea brands include: - Mixue Ice Cream: -2.3% in August 2024 - Heytea: -1.1% in August 2024 - Naixue's Tea: -0.3% in August 2024 [10] Coffee & Hot Pot - The coffee segment shows strong expansion momentum, with notable net store openings: - Luckin Coffee: 1,812 new stores, 8% increase - Kudi Coffee: 2,495 new stores, 25% increase [12] - The hot pot industry is facing adjustments, with several brands showing negative net openings [14] Other Food Segments - The overall opening of stores in segments like pickled fish, snacks, and small pubs is cautious, with average transaction prices stabilizing [15] - Key trends in net store openings for snack brands include: - Zuiyan Zhiwei Chicken: -463 stores, 8% decrease - Juewei Duck Neck: -1,127 stores, 9% decrease [17]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [1] Core Insights - The report highlights strong growth in the number of coffee and Western fast-food outlets, while the tea beverage segment is experiencing increasing differentiation [2] - The net opening numbers for various brands indicate a competitive landscape, with some brands expanding rapidly while others are contracting [3][4] Summary by Sections Net Opening Trends - In the first four months of 2025, the net opening numbers show significant growth for brands like KFC (+777), McDonald's (+52), and Luckin Coffee (+1474), while brands like Huaiyang and others are seeing declines [6][10] - The tea beverage segment shows mixed results, with brands like Mixue Ice Cream and Tea (+3123) expanding, while others like Heytea and Nayuki are facing contractions [8] Average Transaction Price Trends - The average transaction prices for major fast-food brands have shown a downward trend, with KFC and McDonald's experiencing declines of -3.9% and -2.1% respectively in recent months [7] - In the tea beverage sector, brands like Mixue and Heytea are also facing pressure on average transaction prices, with some brands showing significant declines [14] Coffee and Hot Pot Segment - The coffee segment is witnessing strong growth, with brands like Luckin Coffee and Manner showing net opening increases of 7% and 9% respectively [10] - The hot pot segment, however, is facing challenges, with brands like Haidilao and others showing minimal growth or declines in net openings [11] Other Food Categories - The report indicates a noticeable contraction in the number of outlets for categories like pickled fish and snacks, with brands like Tai Er and Yu Ni Zai Yi Qi showing negative net openings [13] - Average transaction prices in these categories are also under pressure, reflecting broader challenges in consumer spending [14]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [1] Core Insights - The report highlights strong growth in the number of coffee and Western fast-food outlets, while the tea beverage sector is experiencing increasing differentiation [2][3] - The net opening numbers for various brands indicate a competitive landscape, with some brands expanding rapidly while others are contracting [4][8] Summary by Sections Net Opening Trends - In the first four months of 2025, the net opening numbers for various sectors are as follows: - Coffee: 1,921 net openings, a 9% increase - Western fast food: 585 net openings, a 5% increase - Tea: -359 net openings, a 7% decrease [3][4] Customer Price Trends - Customer price trends for major brands show varying performance: - KFC: -1.6% in August 2023, worsening to -3.9% by December 2024 - McDonald's: -1.1% in August 2023, worsening to -0.1% by December 2024 - Starbucks: -1.1% in August 2023, worsening to -2.3% by December 2024 [7][12] Coffee and Hot Pot Sector - The coffee sector shows strong growth with notable net openings: - Luckin Coffee: 1,474 net openings, a 7% increase - Starbucks: 49 net openings, a 1% increase [10] - The hot pot sector shows mixed results with some brands experiencing declines in net openings [11] Tea Sector - The tea sector is characterized by a rapid expansion of certain brands like Mixue Ice Cream and Tea, which saw 3,123 net openings, a 9% increase, while others like Heytea and Nayuki are facing challenges with negative net openings [8][9] Other Food Categories - The report indicates a contraction in the number of outlets for categories like pickled fish and snacks, with brands like Tai Er and Yu Ni Zai Yi Qi showing negative net openings [13][14]