Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings The report does not explicitly mention industry investment ratings. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Financial Derivatives**: The stock index futures are expected to maintain a volatile upward trend, while the bond market sentiment is not weak, but the upward space of bond futures is limited [20][23]. - **Agricultural Products**: The protein meal has support in the near - term, while the long - term is under pressure. The sugar price is expected to be volatile. The oil and fat sector is in a bottom - grinding stage. Corn and its starch are in a strong - side volatile state. The pig price is expected to be under pressure, and peanuts are in a short - term bottom - shock state. Egg prices may have limited upside, and apple prices are mainly stable. Cotton prices are expected to be slightly stronger in the short - term [26][31][35][38][42][46][51][54]. - **Black Metals**: Steel prices are in a range - bound state. Coking coal and coke are expected to be adjusted in the short - term and offer buying opportunities after a pullback. Iron ore is considered from a bearish perspective, and ferroalloys' previous short positions can be reduced [57][60][63][64]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Precious metals are expected to strengthen in a volatile manner. Copper is in a short - term shock state. Alumina prices may rebound slightly but face pressure. Aluminum prices are expected to be stronger in a volatile state. Zinc requires attention to export volume, lead is in a range - bound state, and nickel prices are expected to weaken in a volatile manner [67][70][74][77][79][86][89][93]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Financial Derivatives - **Stock Index Futures**: The stock index futures followed the spot market to strengthen. The trading volume and open interest of some varieties changed. The market sentiment is optimistic, and the stock index is expected to maintain a volatile upward trend. The trading strategies include not chasing high, building long positions on dips, conducting IM/IC long 2512 + short ETF cash - and - carry arbitrage, and using bull spreads on dips [19][20][21]. - **Bond Futures**: Bond futures closed mostly higher on Monday. The market funds tightened, but the bond market showed resilience. The upward space of bond futures is limited. The trading strategies include waiting and holding short positions on the 30Y - 7Y term spread and considering long positions on the T - contract current - next quarter spread [22][23]. Agricultural Products - **Protein Meal**: The export prospects of US soybeans have improved, providing support. The domestic soybean meal has supply uncertainties, with strong near - term support and long - term pressure. Rapeseed meal is expected to be in a shock state [26]. - **Sugar**: Internationally, the sugar production in major producing areas is increasing, and the fundamentals are weak. Domestically, the sugar price is expected to be in a range - bound state, with limited downward space due to policy support [31]. - **Oil and Fat Sector**: In October, the palm oil inventory in Malaysia increased as expected. The oil and fat sector is in a bottom - grinding stage, and there may be a technical rebound in the short - term [34][35]. - **Corn/Corn Starch**: The US corn futures rebounded. The domestic corn spot price is strong, and the futures are in a strong - side volatile state [36][38]. - **Pigs**: The pig price is generally in a downward trend. The overall supply pressure still exists, and the pig price is expected to be under pressure [39][40]. - **Peanuts**: The peanut spot price is stable, and the 01 contract is in a short - term bottom - shock state. The 05 contract can be considered for short - term long positions [41][42]. - **Eggs**: The demand for eggs has improved slightly, but the supply of laying hens is still at a high level, and the upside space of egg prices is limited [44][46]. - **Apples**: New apples are gradually being stored, and the price is mainly stable. The inventory is expected to be lower than last year, but the current futures price is at a high level, so it is recommended to wait and see [49][51]. - **Cotton - Cotton Yarn**: The cotton picking is coming to an end. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is in the off - season. The cotton price is expected to be slightly stronger in the short - term [53][54]. Black Metals - **Steel**: The supply of rebar is increasing, and the steel price is in a range - bound state. The supply and demand structure suppresses the steel price, but there is support at the bottom due to environmental protection [57]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The market drive is not obvious in the short - term, and it is expected to be adjusted in a volatile manner. In the medium - term, there are buying opportunities after a pullback [60]. - **Iron Ore**: The terminal demand is weakening, and the supply is at a high level. The iron ore price is expected to be in a high - level bearish operation [62][63]. - **Ferroalloys**: The supply and demand of ferroalloys are weakening at the margin, but the cost provides support. The previous short positions can be reduced [64]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Precious Metals**: The market's liquidity expectation has improved, and precious metals are expected to strengthen in a volatile manner [67]. - **Copper**: The short - term copper price is in a shock state. The supply is tightening, and the demand is warming up [70][71][73]. - **Alumina**: The supply and demand of alumina are still in significant surplus. The price may rebound slightly, but it faces pressure from the basis [77]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: There are still concerns about overseas supply, and the aluminum price is expected to be stronger in a volatile manner [79][81]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: Affected by the cost and demand, the cast aluminum alloy price will maintain a strong - side volatile state with the aluminum price [85]. - **Zinc**: Attention should be paid to the export volume of zinc [86]. - **Lead**: The lead price is in a range - bound state, and it may decline with the increase of social inventory [89][90]. - **Nickel**: The cost of nickel has loosened, and the nickel price is expected to weaken in a volatile manner [93].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the past week, the trading volume of commodity options increased slightly, with only the trading volume of the precious metals sector decreasing. Most varieties are in a volatility - reduction cycle, and it is advisable to move short - option positions to far - month contracts in advance to avoid end - of - contract risks [4]. - The options of the black sector showed increased volatility and trading volume. Affected by the decline in iron ore futures prices, the implied volatility of black options has risen. The previous policy - driven boost has basically been realized, and the market trading logic has returned to fundamentals. There is a lack of new macro - drivers, and the upward momentum of prices has been weakened. The implied volatility still has room to rise, and it is advisable to buy a bearish put spread portfolio to hedge against the downward market [4]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market Overview - The trading volume of commodity options increased slightly last week, with the precious metals sector being the only one with a decline in trading volume. Energy and chemical products such as short - fiber, PTA, methanol, glass, crude oil, caustic soda, soda ash, and bottle chips are about to expire on Wednesday. Most varieties are in a volatility - reduction cycle [4]. - The options of the black sector showed increased volatility and trading volume. The implied volatility of black options has risen due to the decline in iron ore futures prices. The previous policy - driven boost has basically been realized, and the market trading logic has returned to fundamentals [4]. 3.2 Market Data 3.2.1 Market Overview - The table shows the quantitative data of commodity options, including the flat - value volatility, 60 - day quantile, Skew, and 60 - day quantile of various varieties such as corn, soybean meal, and crude oil [12]. 3.2.2 - 3.2.54 Option Data of Each Variety - For each variety (such as corn, soybean meal, etc.), the data includes the closing price, trading volume, open interest, trading volume PCR, open interest PCR, flat - value volatility, HV - 10 days, HV - 20 days, and Skew of the main contract, secondary - main contract, and all contracts [13][14][15] etc.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall market shows a complex and diverse trend, with different sectors having their own characteristics and influencing factors. For example, in the financial derivatives market, the stock index tries to attack upward, while in the agricultural product market, different varieties have different price trends and supply - demand situations; in the black metal and non - ferrous metal markets, factors such as macro - policies, supply - demand relationships, and geopolitical risks all have an impact on prices [5][7][9]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Financial Derivatives Stock Index Futures - On Thursday, the stock index first declined and then rose. The Shanghai Composite Index regained the 3900 - point mark. The main stock index futures contracts all rebounded, and trading volume and open interest increased. The market is expected to try to attack upward after the positive news [20][21]. Financial Options - The stock market shows a mixed trend, and the trading volume of the market remains at around 1.6 trillion yuan. Most option varieties have a decreasing trading volume, and the implied volatility of most options remains volatile. Option sellers need to be cautious when building positions [23]. Treasury Bond Futures - On Thursday, treasury bond futures closed down across the board. The central bank's net withdrawal of short - term liquidity did not change the balanced and loose capital situation. The stock - bond seesaw effect is obvious. It is recommended to hold long positions lightly and wait and see for arbitrage [24][25]. Agricultural Products Soybean Meal - The CBOT soybean index rose, but the international soybean market still faces pressure. Domestic soybean meal is affected by the macro - environment, and the supply pressure is expected to increase, with the price likely to fall. It is recommended to wait and see, conduct positive arbitrage for M11 - 1, and sell a wide - straddle option strategy [27][28][29]. Sugar - The international sugar price is in a weak trend with the main contract breaking through the previous low. The domestic sugar price is relatively more resistant to decline in the short term. It is recommended to arrange short positions at high prices, short US raw sugar and long domestic Zhengzhou sugar, and sell out - of - the - money call options [30][32]. Oilseeds and Oils - The short - term market lacks driving factors and is in a weak and volatile state. The Malaysian palm oil may continue to accumulate inventory in October, and the domestic soybean oil and rapeseed oil have different supply - demand situations. It is recommended to wait and see for all trading strategies [33][35]. Corn and Corn Starch - The US corn futures rebounded, but the domestic new grain supply is increasing, and the port and North China prices are falling. It is recommended to go long on the dips for the December contract, close long positions for the January contract, and wait for the dips to go long for the May and July contracts [36][38]. Live Hogs - The live hog market still has supply pressure, and the price is slightly falling. It is recommended to short a small amount, conduct reverse arbitrage for LH15, and sell a wide - straddle option strategy [39][40]. Peanuts - The peanut market is in a bottom - oscillating state. The oil mills have not purchased in large quantities. It is recommended to go long on the dips for the January and May contracts and sell the pk601 - P - 7600 option [41][42][43]. Eggs - The egg inventory is slowly being depleted, and the price is in a weak and volatile state. The supply of laying hens is at a high level, and the demand is average. It is recommended to close previous short positions and wait and see for other strategies [44][46]. Apples - The high - quality fruit rate of apples is poor, and the price is relatively strong. It is recommended to go long on the short - term, conduct long - November and short - January arbitrage, and wait and see for options [48][50]. Cotton - Cotton Yarn - The new cotton purchase progress is accelerating, and the cotton price is mainly oscillating. The supply is sufficient, and the demand is in a general state during the peak season. It is recommended to go long on the dips, conduct short - November and long - January arbitrage, and wait and see for options [51][52][54]. Black Metals Steel - In the fourth quarter, there are insufficient construction projects, and steel prices are in a range - bound state. The steel demand is recovering, and the inventory is transferred from the factory to the social level. It is recommended to maintain the range - bound trading, go long on the spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar at low prices, and wait and see for options [57][58]. Coking Coal and Coke - The profitability of steel mills is poor, which restricts the upward space of coking coal and coke. The coking coal supply is affected by safety supervision, and the price is in a volatile state. It is recommended to be cautious about long positions, pay attention to the risk of decline, and wait and see for other strategies [59][60][61]. Iron Ore - A mid - term bearish view is taken. The global iron ore shipment is at a high level, and the supply is increasing while the domestic demand is weakening. It is recommended to be bearish on the mid - term and wait and see for other strategies [62][63]. Ferroalloys - Ferroalloys follow the market to rebound. After the low - valuation repair, they can still be used as short - side configurations. The supply of ferrosilicon and ferromanganese silicon is at a high level, and the demand has inventory pressure. It is recommended to wait for the low - valuation repair and then short, and sell out - of - the - money straddle option combinations [63][64]. Non - Ferrous Metals Precious Metals - Geopolitical risks are fluctuating, and gold and silver prices have temporarily stabilized. The market is in a state of intense long - short game, and it is recommended to wait and see for all trading strategies [66][67]. Copper - The macro - sentiment has improved, and it is recommended to go long on the dips. The copper supply is affected by disturbances, and the demand is in a general state. It is recommended to hold long positions on dips, continue to hold cross - market positive arbitrage, and wait and see for options [70][71]. Alumina - The supply side has marginal changes, and the price has a narrow - range rebound. The supply - demand surplus is becoming more obvious, and some producers may reduce production. It is recommended to go long on the short - term, and wait and see for other strategies [72][73][74]. Aluminum - The macro - sentiment and fundamentals resonate, and the medium - term upward trend of aluminum remains unchanged. Overseas aluminum production is expected to decrease, and the domestic inventory is decreasing. It is recommended to go long on the short - term and wait and see for other strategies [76][78][80]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - The macro - sentiment is improving, and the aluminum alloy is in an upward - oscillating channel. The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and the demand has resilience. It is recommended to go long on the short - term and wait and see for other strategies [80][81][83]. Zinc - It is recommended to wait and see. The domestic supply is increasing, and the overseas inventory is low. The export window is open. It is necessary to pay attention to the actual export volume [84][86][87]. Lead - Pay attention to the impact of capital on the lead price. The supply is short - term tight, and the demand is improving. There may be a short - term squeeze on the near - month contract. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and go short on the dips in the long term [88][89][90]. Nickel - The inventory accumulation reflects an oversupply, and the nickel price is under pressure. The supply is abundant, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to short at the upper edge of the oscillation range and sell a wide - straddle option combination for the 2512 contract [91][92]. Stainless Steel - The continuous decline of warehouse receipts boosts the near - month contract. The production efficiency of stainless steel enterprises has improved, and project construction is accelerating [93].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various commodity futures markets, including agriculture, black metals, non - ferrous metals, etc. Each market has its own supply - demand situation, price trends, and corresponding trading strategies based on macro - environment, policy, and industry - specific factors [17][20][45]. Summary by Related Catalogs Agricultural Products Soybean Meal - **Market Status**: The market is in a temporary stable phase, with soybean meal and rapeseed meal fluctuating. The international soybean market has large supply pressure, and domestic soybean meal may decline due to increased supply pressure [15][17]. - **Strategy**: Suggested to wait and see; M11 - 1 positive spread; sell call options on soybean meal [17]. Sugar - **Market Status**: Brazilian sugar prices are falling, and the overall trend of sugar is weak. The international raw sugar fundamentals are weak, and the domestic sugar market is expected to follow the international market [20]. - **Strategy**: Short - term rebound after a sharp decline, suggest short - selling at high prices; short US raw sugar and long domestic Zhengzhou sugar; sell out - of - the - money call options [21]. Oilseeds and Oils - **Market Status**: The market lacks short - term drivers and fluctuates weakly. Malaysian palm oil may continue to accumulate inventory in October, domestic soybean oil may gradually reduce inventory, and rapeseed oil has marginal inventory reduction [22][23]. - **Strategy**: Wait and see, consider light - position long when there is a significant correction [24]. Corn/Corn Starch - **Market Status**: New grain supply is increasing, and the market is fluctuating weakly. US corn may fluctuate narrowly, and domestic corn has a short - term decline space [25][27]. - **Strategy**: Short - term long for 12 - contract corn on dips; close 01 - contract long positions; wait for dips to buy 05 and 07 - contract corn [27]. Live Pigs - **Market Status**: Supply pressure persists, and the rebound is blocked. The overall pig inventory is high, and the supply pressure remains [28]. - **Strategy**: Try short - selling in small quantities; LH15 reverse spread; sell call options [29]. Peanuts - **Market Status**: Peanut oil mills have not started large - scale purchases, and peanuts are oscillating at the bottom. The new - season peanuts are strong in some areas, and the market is stable [32][33]. - **Strategy**: Buy 01 and 05 - contract peanuts on dips; sell pk601 - P - 7600 options [33]. Eggs - **Market Status**: Inventory reduction is slow, and egg prices are fluctuating weakly. The laying - hen inventory is high, and the demand is average [34][36]. - **Strategy**: Close previous short positions; wait and see for spreads and options [37]. Apples - **Market Status**: The high - quality fruit rate is low, and apple prices are strong. Some areas have small - sized apples and water - crack problems, and the cost of futures warehouse receipts is high [38][39]. - **Strategy**: Long 11 - contract and short 1 - contract apples; wait and see for options [40]. Cotton - Cotton Yarn - **Market Status**: New cotton purchase is accelerating, and cotton prices are fluctuating. Xinjiang cotton has a high yield, and the demand in the peak season is not strong [41][43]. - **Strategy**: Zhengzhou cotton may fluctuate slightly stronger; short 11 - contract and long 1 - contract cotton; wait and see for options [43]. Black Metals Steel - **Market Status**: Driven by raw materials, steel prices rise, but there is still upward pressure. Construction steel trading volume is improving, but there are inventory and demand problems [45]. - **Strategy**: Maintain range - bound trading; long the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar; wait and see for options [46]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Status**: Supply is disrupted, and prices are supported. Coal mine production is affected by safety and environmental factors, but steel mill demand is not strong [47][48]. - **Strategy**: Buy on dips, but be cautious about the upward space; wait and see for spreads and options [48]. Iron Ore - **Market Status**: Take a bearish view in the medium - term. Global iron ore supply has increased, and domestic demand may weaken [50][53]. - **Strategy**: Short - sell in the medium - term; wait and see for spreads and options [52][53]. Ferroalloys - **Market Status**: Low - valuation - driven rebound, but the sustainability is limited. Both silicon iron and manganese silicon have high supply and weak demand [55]. - **Strategy**: Continue range - bound trading; wait and see for spreads; sell out - of - the - money straddle option combinations [56]. Non - Ferrous Metals Precious Metals - **Market Status**: Intense long - short competition, and gold and silver are in adjustment. The market is affected by geopolitical and macro - economic factors [58][61]. - **Strategy**: Enter an adjustment phase in the short - term; wait and see for spreads and options [61]. Copper - **Market Status**: Short - term consolidation, long - term trend unchanged. The macro - environment and supply - demand situation affect copper prices [62]. - **Strategy**: Buy on dips, hold long - short positions across markets; wait and see for options [63]. Alumina - **Market Status**: Supply is changing, and prices are bottom - grinding. The market has an oversupply situation, and some producers are reducing production [66][70]. - **Strategy**: Bottom - grinding in the short - term, may rebound if production reduction expands; wait and see for spreads and options [70]. Electrolytic Aluminum - **Market Status**: The medium - term upward trend remains unchanged, driven by macro - sentiment and fundamentals. The inventory is decreasing, and the production of some overseas plants is affected [70][71]. - **Strategy**: Bullish in the medium - term; wait and see for spreads and options [74]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Status**: The price is expected to be strong, with improved macro - sentiment and cost support. The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and demand has resilience [75][80]. - **Strategy**: Bullish in the medium - term; wait and see for spreads and options [80]. Zinc - **Market Status**: Suggest waiting and seeing. The domestic supply is increasing, and the overseas market has low inventory and high concentration of near - month contracts [81]. - **Strategy**: Wait and see for all strategies [82]. Lead - **Market Status**: Supply is gradually recovering, and prices may fall. With the resumption of production, the supply of lead ingots may increase [86]. - **Strategy**: Hold previous short positions, add short at high prices; wait and see for spreads and options [86]. Nickel - **Market Status**: Inventory accumulation indicates oversupply, and prices are under pressure. The supply of pure nickel is abundant, and demand is weak [89]. - **Strategy**: Short - sell at the upper edge of the shock range; wait and see for spreads; sell 2512 - contract wide - straddle options [90]. Stainless Steel - **Market Status**: The decline in warehouse receipts boosts near - month contracts. The price is lower than the cost, and demand restricts the increase [91]. - **Strategy**: Bullish in the short - term; long ss2512 and short ss2602 [93]. Other Commodities Industrial Silicon - **Market Status**: Narrow - range fluctuation in the short - term. The demand for polysilicon will decrease in November, and there is short - term oversupply [94]. - **Strategy**: Wait for a full correction; no strategy for spreads and options [94]. Polysilicon - **Market Status**: Buy on dips near the previous support level. The supply - demand balance will improve in November, and the short - term decline space is limited [95]. - **Strategy**: Buy on dips; exit the previous rebound strategy; adjust the double - buying option strategy [95][97]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Status**: Supported by demand and supply risks, prices are rising. The domestic lithium ore is tightening, and the processing fee is decreasing [98]. - **Strategy**: Bullish; wait and see for spreads; sell out - of - the - money put options [99]. Tin - **Market Status**: The macro - sentiment cools down, and prices fluctuate around the integer level. The market has a wait - and - see attitude, and demand growth is slow [100]. - **Strategy**: Not provided in the text.

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various commodities, including their current market conditions, influencing factors, and trading strategies. It assesses the supply - demand dynamics, macro - economic impacts, and geopolitical events affecting each commodity. Overall, different commodities are expected to have diverse price trends, with some facing downward pressure due to supply surpluses or weakening demand, while others may experience upward movement supported by demand or supply - side constraints. Summary by Commodity Categories Agricultural Products 1. Soybean Meal - The supply pressure of international soybeans remains high, and domestic soybean meal is also expected to decline due to increased supply pressure. The recommendation is to wait and see on a single - side basis, conduct M11 - 1 positive spreads for arbitrage, and sell call options [17]. 2. Sugar - International sugar prices are in a weak trend with the downward - opened space after breaking the previous low. Domestic sugar is expected to follow the external market. The strategy is to short at high prices on a single - side basis and conduct short ICE US raw sugar and long domestic Zhengzhou sugar for arbitrage [21]. 3. Oilseeds and Oils - The palm oil market may see a slight inventory build - up in October. Domestic soybean oil may gradually reduce inventory, and rapeseed oil may continue to reduce inventory marginally. The recommendation is to wait and see on a single - side basis and consider going long on dips [25]. 4. Corn/Corn Starch - The US corn may continue to narrow - range fluctuate in the short - term. Domestic new - crop corn supply is increasing, and the spot price has a downward space. The suggestion is to go long on dips for the 12 - contract US corn, hold long positions for the 01 - contract domestic corn, and wait for dips to go long for the 05 and 07 contracts [29]. 5. Live Pigs - The slaughter pressure has improved, and the spot price has a phased rebound. However, the overall supply pressure still exists. The strategy is to wait and see on a single - side basis and sell wide - straddle options [31]. 6. Peanuts - Peanut production may be affected by rainfall, and the 01 - contract peanut may fluctuate strongly in the short - term but overall remains at the bottom. The recommendation is to go long on dips for the 01 and 05 contracts and sell pk601 - P - 7600 options [34]. 7. Eggs - The inventory reduction is slow, and egg prices are expected to fluctuate weakly. The suggestion is to short at high prices on a single - side basis and close out previous short positions to take profits [39]. 8. Apples - The high - quality fruit rate is poor, and the price is expected to fluctuate slightly stronger. The strategy is to go long on a single - side basis, conduct long November and short January for arbitrage [42]. 9. Cotton - Cotton Yarn - The new cotton acquisition is accelerating. The market may face selling - hedging pressure with the large - scale listing of new cotton. The demand improvement is limited. The recommendation is that the US cotton may fluctuate, and domestic cotton may fluctuate slightly stronger. Hold cross - market positive spreads and consider cross - period positive spreads after domestic inventory decline [46]. Ferrous Metals 1. Steel - The demand pressure persists, but the steel price has a lower valuation and some support. It is expected to fluctuate within a range. The suggestion is to maintain the range - bound strategy on a single - side basis and go long on the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar at low prices for arbitrage [49]. 2. Coking Coal and Coke - The coking coal supply is tight, but the steel mill demand is not strong. It is expected to fluctuate within a range. The recommendation is to go long on dips on a single - side basis [52]. 3. Iron Ore - The market expectation is weak, and the fundamentals have changed. The supply has increased while the demand has decreased. It is recommended to take a bearish view in the medium - term on a single - side basis [54]. 4. Ferroalloys - The steel procurement for ferroalloys is weak. Both ferrosilicon and ferromanganese are expected to fluctuate at the bottom. The strategy is to wait and see on a single - side basis and sell out - of - the - money straddle option combinations [58]. Non - Ferrous Metals 1. Precious Metals - Due to the loosening of previous positive factors, gold and silver prices have dropped significantly. It is recommended to wait and see [62]. 2. Copper - The macro - environment has changed, and the supply - side disturbances have increased. The consumption is average but has some resilience. The recommendation is to go long on dips on a single - side basis and hold cross - market positive spreads [64]. 3. Alumina - The supply - side is showing marginal changes, and the price is expected to grind at a low level. It is recommended to focus on the supply - side changes on a single - side basis [69]. 4. Electrolytic Aluminum - The macro - factors are the main drivers. The consumption has some resilience. The suggestion is to go long on dips on a single - side basis [75]. 5. Cast Aluminum Alloy - The macro - panic has improved, and the cost is supported. The price is expected to be strong. The recommendation is to go long on dips on a single - side basis [80]. 6. Zinc - The domestic supply is increasing, and the overseas market has some support. It is recommended to wait and see [83]. 7. Lead - The supply is gradually recovering, and the price may decline. The suggestion is to hold previous short positions and add short positions at high prices [89]. 8. Nickel - The inventory is increasing, indicating an oversupply. The price is under pressure. The recommendation is to short at the upper limit of the shock range on a single - side basis and sell wide - straddle option combinations [90]. 9. Stainless Steel - The demand is weak, and the price is testing the cost support. It is expected to fluctuate weakly. The strategy is to wait and see on a single - side basis [94]. Other Commodities 1. Industrial Silicon - The demand from polysilicon may decline in November, and the price is under short - term pressure. It is recommended to wait for sufficient dips on a single - side basis [95]. 2. Polysilicon - The supply - demand balance will improve in November. It is recommended to buy at dips on a single - side basis, hold reverse spreads for the 2511 and 2512 contracts, and adjust the option strategy [98]. 3. Lithium Carbonate - The demand is strong, and the supply has risks. The price is expected to strengthen. The suggestion is to go long on a single - side basis and sell out - of - the - money put options [99]. 4. Tin - The macro - sentiment has cooled down, and the price is consolidating around the integer level. The market is cautious, and the demand recovery is not good [103]. 5. Shipping - The spot price of container shipping continues to rise, and attention should be paid to the progress of China - US negotiations [12]. 6. Energy and Chemicals - Different energy and chemical products have various trends. For example, crude oil is temporarily stable, while some products like PX & PTA and ethylene glycol face supply - demand changes and price fluctuations. Specific trading strategies are provided for each product based on their supply - demand and market conditions [14].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The financial support for the continuous improvement of the economy has increased. China's central bank implements a moderately loose monetary policy, aiming to maintain ample liquidity and promote a decline in financial market interest rates and social comprehensive financing costs [2]. - The US labor market has slowed down rapidly, with the July non - farm payrolls increasing by only 73,000, the lowest in 9 months, and the unemployment rate rising slightly to 4.2%, which may trigger new recession concerns [3]. - The real estate industry policy implementation rhythm is expected to accelerate, and the policy flexibility of first - tier cities and core areas may exceed expectations [29]. - The macro - policy may focus more on monetary policy relaxation in the third quarter, considering the low possibility of short - term fiscal incremental policies [29]. Summary by Directory 1. Macro Data Overview - In Q2 2025, GDP at constant prices had a year - on - year quarterly increase of 5.2%, slightly lower than the previous quarter's 5.4% but higher than the same period last year's 4.7% [1]. - In July 2025, the manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, down from 49.7% in the previous month; the non - manufacturing PMI for business activities was 50.1%, down from 50.5% in the previous month [1]. - In June 2025, the year - on - year growth rates of M0, M1, and M2 were 12.0%, 4.6%, and 8.3% respectively, with M1 and M2 showing significant increases compared to the same period last year [1]. 2. Commodity Investment Reference Comprehensive - China's central bank will implement a moderately loose monetary policy in the second half of 2025, including reducing the deposit reserve ratio and lowering policy interest rates [2]. - The US President Trump modified "reciprocal tariffs" for dozens of countries, with rates ranging from 10% to 41%, and postponed the effective date to August 7 [2]. Metals - The price of tungsten has reached a new high due to supply contraction and an increase in long - term contract prices. In the past two weeks, the price of black tungsten concentrate has risen by 7.82% to 193,000 yuan/ton, and the price of ammonium paratungstate has risen by 7.95% to 285,000 yuan/ton [5]. - Three major steel enterprises jointly opposed the speculation of high molybdenum prices, as the profit of the industrial chain is highly concentrated in the mining end [5]. Coal, Coke, Steel, and Minerals - The China Coking Industry Association decided to raise the price of coke on July 31, with different price increases for different types of coke [9]. - In July 2025, India's coal production was 46.4 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 16%; sales were 53.7 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 11% [9]. Energy and Chemicals - China plans to reform the pricing mechanism of provincial natural gas pipelines, transitioning from "one - line, one - price" and "one - enterprise, one - price" to regional pricing or unified provincial pricing [11]. - OPEC+ core members will decide whether to fully exit the 2.2 million barrels per day crude oil production cut plan in September or take a more cautious approach [12]. Agricultural Products - On August 3, the average price of live pigs was 14.29 yuan/kg, with a daily decline of 0.01 yuan/kg. The price increase at the beginning of the month failed to meet expectations [14]. - On August 1, the average price of pork in the national agricultural product wholesale market was 20.60 yuan/kg, a 1.3% decrease from July 25 [15]. 3. Financial News Compilation Open Market - This week, 1.6632 trillion yuan of reverse repurchases in the central bank's open market will expire. Last week, the central bank conducted 1.6632 trillion yuan of reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 6.9 billion yuan [16]. Important News and Information - Starting from August 8, 2025, the interest income from newly issued national bonds, local government bonds, and financial bonds will be subject to value - added tax [17]. - The central bank requires steady and solid progress in the internationalization of the RMB, including expanding the use of RMB in trade and enhancing its financing currency function [19]. Bond Market Summary - China's bond market showed narrow - range fluctuations, with treasury bond futures rising and falling unevenly, and the yield of major interest - rate bonds in the inter - bank market fluctuating within 1 bp [23]. Foreign Exchange Market Express - The on - shore RMB closed at 7.2106 against the US dollar on August 4, down 176 basis points from the previous trading day [28]. Research Report Highlights - CICC Fixed Income believes that the policy focus will shift from fiscal to monetary policy in the second half of the year, and monetary policy relaxation will help reduce the fiscal interest burden [29]. - Huatai Securities believes that the policy implementation rhythm of the real estate industry is expected to accelerate, and the policy flexibility of first - tier cities may exceed expectations [29]. 4. Stock Market Important News - The new - share market of the Beijing Stock Exchange continues to be booming. The first - day increase of Dingjia Precision on July 31 was 479.12%, and the funds frozen in the online subscription exceeded 60 billion yuan for the first time [33]. - The Hong Kong Stock Exchange's IPO pricing mechanism has been reformed, with new rules taking effect on August 4, including optimizing the new - share allocation ratio and reducing the public shareholding threshold [34].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - All the energy and chemical products in the report are rated as "oscillating" [1][2][4] 2. Core Views of the Report - **Crude Oil**: On Wednesday, oil prices fell slightly. EIA data showed an increase in gasoline and distillate inventories and a decrease in crude oil inventories. Refinery开工率 was high, but the increase in product inventories disappointed the market. With the ongoing tariff war and lower - than - expected demand, prices are in a weak oscillation [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: The high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil markets are mainly oscillating following the cost - end crude oil. The LU - FU spread has widened, but there is medium - term supply pressure for low - sulfur fuel oil, and short positions can be considered at high prices [2]. - **Asphalt**: The impact of the adjustment of fuel oil and diluted asphalt consumption tax deduction policies is not yet apparent. Short - term supply will decrease, and the market will oscillate narrowly following crude oil [2]. - **Polyester**: Polyester prices are expected to oscillate weakly. The production and sales of polyester yarn are weak, and some devices are starting up or shutting down. The demand - side inventory pressure is significant, and some products are in a loss state [2][4]. - **Rubber**: Rubber prices are expected to oscillate weakly. The export volume of Cambodian latex decreased in the first half of 2025. The domestic natural rubber inventory increased slightly, and the production increase is being realized [4]. - **Methanol**: The load of Iranian devices has recovered, and the arrival volume has increased. Downstream profits have improved, and prices have returned to an oscillating trend [5]. - **Polyolefins**: The supply of polyolefins has limited changes, demand is at the bottom, and prices are expected to fluctuate narrowly [5]. - **Polyvinyl Chloride**: The enterprise's operating rate has decreased, demand has not improved significantly, and the upward rebound space is limited [5][6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: WTI 8 - month contract closed at $66.38/barrel, down $0.14 or 0.21%. Brent 9 - month contract closed at $68.52/barrel, down $0.19 or 0.28%. SC2508 closed at 517.20 yuan/barrel. Gasoline and distillate inventories increased, while crude oil inventories decreased. The market was disappointed with demand, and prices oscillated weakly [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: The main contract FU2509 of high - sulfur fuel oil rose 0.45% to 2880 yuan/ton, and the main contract LU2509 of low - sulfur fuel oil fell 0.47% to 3630 yuan/ton. The market structure of low - sulfur fuel oil weakened slightly, and the high - sulfur market remained stable. The market oscillated following crude oil, and short positions can be considered for the LU - FU spread [2]. - **Asphalt**: The main contract BU2509 of asphalt fell 0.22% to 3623 yuan/ton. The supply will decrease in the short term, and the market will oscillate following crude oil [2]. - **Polyester**: TA509 closed at 4706 yuan/ton, up 0.21%. EG2509 closed at 4351 yuan/ton, up 0.67%. The production and sales of polyester yarn were weak, and prices oscillated weakly [2][4]. - **Rubber**: The main contract RU2509 of natural rubber rose 105 yuan/ton to 14500 yuan/ton, and the main contract of NR rose 110 yuan/ton to 12490 yuan/ton. The export volume of Cambodian latex decreased, and domestic inventory increased slightly. Rubber prices oscillated weakly [4]. - **Methanol**: The spot price in Taicang was 2382 yuan/ton. Iranian device load recovered, and prices oscillated [5]. - **Polyolefins**: The mainstream price of East China drawing was 7020 - 7160 yuan/ton. Supply changes were limited, and prices oscillated narrowly [5]. - **Polyvinyl Chloride**: The market prices in East, North, and South China decreased. The enterprise's operating rate decreased, and the upward rebound space was limited [5][6]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the basis price data of various energy and chemical products on July 16, 2025, including spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rates, price changes, and the position of the latest basis rate in historical data [7]. 3.3 Market News - EIA data showed that last week, US gasoline inventories increased by 3.4 million barrels, distillate inventories increased by 4.2 million barrels, and crude oil inventories decreased by 3.9 million barrels to 422.2 million barrels [9]. - Refineries were operating at a high rate, but the increase in product inventories disappointed the market. After the July 4th holiday, gasoline demand decreased, and the supply of gasoline products decreased by 670,000 barrels per day to 8.5 million barrels per day [9]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - **Main Contract Prices**: The report presents the closing price charts of the main contracts of various energy and chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, etc. [11][13][15] - **Main Contract Basis**: The report shows the basis charts of various energy and chemical products from 2021 to 2025, such as crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc. [30][34][36] - **Inter - period Contract Spreads**: The report provides the spread charts of different contracts of energy and chemical products, such as fuel oil, asphalt, etc. [44][46][49] - **Inter - product Spreads**: The report shows the spread and ratio charts between different energy and chemical products, such as crude oil internal and external spreads, fuel oil high - low sulfur spreads, etc. [61][63][65] - **Production Profits**: The report presents the production profit charts of some energy and chemical products, such as ethylene - based ethylene glycol and PP [68][70][73] 3.5 Team Member Introduction - **Zhong Meiyan**: Assistant Director of the Research Institute and Director of Energy and Chemicals, with over ten years of experience in futures derivatives market research [75]. - **Du Bingqin**: Analyst for crude oil, natural gas, fuel oil, asphalt, and shipping, with in - depth research on the energy industry chain [76]. - **Di Yilin**: Analyst for natural rubber and polyester, good at data analysis [77]. - **Peng Haibo**: Analyst for methanol, PE, PP, and PVC, with experience in combining financial theory and industrial operations [78]