中 泰证 券研 究 所 专 业｜ 领 先｜ 深 度｜ 诚 信 ｜ 证 券 研 究 报 告 ｜ 机械行业量子科技专题 "十五五"重点发展方向，在不确定性中迈向未来 2026.3.4 分析师：王子杰 分析师：寇鸿基 执业证书编号：S0740522090001 执业证书编号：S0740525060005 1 核心观点 2 p 量子科技正走向应用实践，重塑未来：量子科技是利用量子的量子力学特性（如叠加、纠缠），进行信息处理、 传感和物质操控的技术。由于近年来量子技术的不断突破，量子科技的产业化进程已形成由上游核心硬件、中 游系统集成与下游行业应用构成的清晰产业链。根据麦肯锡预测，预计到2035年全球量子产业市场规模将达 到高达970亿美元。其中：1） 量子计算创造的全球价值可能在280亿-720亿美元之间。2）量子通信可能在 110亿-150亿美元之间。3） 量子传感可能在70亿-100亿美元之间，总计高达970亿美元。预计整体市场到 2040年或达到1980亿美元。 p 量子科技是战略级产业，国家间竞赛正悄然展开：从总量来看，美国在授权专利总量方面保持领先地位。而我 国在物理科学领域的量子技术出版物数量占比达42% ...

Core Themes - The "15th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes the construction of a modern industrial system, promoting technological innovation and self-reliance, and expanding domestic demand, particularly in consumption [1][2]. Commercial Aerospace - The commercial aerospace sector is recognized as a strategic emerging industry cluster in the "15th Five-Year Plan," marking its elevation to a national strategic level [2]. - Key investment areas include the commercial rocket industry chain and satellite manufacturing and application chain, which are expected to benefit from increased launch demand and technological advancements [2][3]. - The commercial aerospace industry is entering a critical phase of scale and commercialization, with over 600 companies projected by 2025 and an expected market size of 2.5 to 2.8 trillion yuan [3]. Low-altitude Economy - The low-altitude economy is defined as activities in the airspace of 1,000 to 3,000 meters, utilizing drones and eVTOLs, with applications in logistics, tourism, and emergency rescue [5]. - The industry is projected to reach a market size of 2 trillion yuan by 2030, with a compound annual growth rate of 34.2% [5]. - As of November 2025, there are over 97,000 companies in the low-altitude economy sector, with significant growth in regions like Guangdong and Shandong [5][6]. Embodied Intelligence - The embodied intelligence sector is experiencing rapid development, with a market size of approximately 5.295 billion yuan in 2025, accounting for 27% of the global market [8]. - The sector is expected to grow to over 1 trillion yuan by 2035, with significant investment activity, including over 500 billion yuan in financing by October 2025 [8][9]. - Companies are advancing towards commercialization, with applications expected to transform household cleaning and other sectors [10]. 6G Technology - The "15th Five-Year Plan" includes a forward-looking layout for 6G technology, which is anticipated to enhance communication, perception, and intelligence integration [10][11]. - The 6G market is projected to reach a scale of 1 trillion yuan by 2035, with significant advancements in technology and standardization expected during the "15th Five-Year Plan" period [12]. Artificial Intelligence - The core AI industry in China is expected to exceed 1 trillion yuan by 2025, with a focus on deep integration with various sectors [14]. - The government aims for AI applications to achieve over 70% penetration in key areas by 2027 and over 90% by 2030 [14][15]. - Infrastructure upgrades and a comprehensive computing network are critical for supporting AI innovation and application [15]. Quantum Technology - Quantum technology is prioritized in the "15th Five-Year Plan," with expectations for significant growth and application across various industries [16][17]. - The global quantum industry is projected to reach approximately 239.1 billion dollars by 2030, with a compound annual growth rate of 65% [16][17]. Cultural and Tourism Industry - The tourism industry is undergoing a quality revolution, with a focus on high-quality tourism products and services as outlined in the "15th Five-Year Plan" [18][19]. - Domestic tourism is recovering, with nearly 50 billion trips recorded in the first three quarters of 2025, reflecting a shift towards deeper consumption and experience upgrades [18]. - The plan emphasizes enhancing inbound tourism services and integrating technology to improve visitor experiences [19]. New Consumption - Consumption is a key driver of economic growth, with retail sales expected to grow from 39.1 trillion yuan in 2020 to 48.3 trillion yuan by 2024 [20][21]. - The government aims to support new consumption models and expand consumer goods supply structures, targeting several trillion-yuan sectors by 2027 [21].

Group 1: Domestic Chip Replacement - The rise of domestic AI chip manufacturers is marked by significant stock price increases, with companies like Cambrian Technology surpassing major brands like Kweichow Moutai [1] - The market anticipates more AI chip companies to go public, with notable performances from companies like Moer Thread and Muxi, indicating strong investor interest in domestic chip alternatives [1] - The domestic market share for smart computing chips is projected to grow from approximately 20% in 2024 to about 60% by 2029, reflecting a shift towards local production [2] Group 2: AI Edge Computing - The emergence of AI in hardware is expected to redefine traditional devices, with predictions that mobile phones and apps may become obsolete in favor of AI-driven edge devices [3] - The global edge AI market is forecasted to grow from 321.9 billion yuan to 1.22 trillion yuan between 2025 and 2029, with a compound annual growth rate of 40% [4] - The focus of competition is shifting from hardware specifications to AI experience and ecosystem collaboration, indicating a transformation in the value chain [5] Group 3: Quantum Computing Advances - Quantum technology is recognized as a strategic frontier for technological revolution, with significant breakthroughs expected in the coming years [6] - China's advancements in quantum communication and computing are positioning it alongside global leaders, with the "Zu Chongzhi No. 3" quantum computer expected to maintain a competitive edge [7] - The practical application of quantum computing in fields like finance and protein simulation is anticipated to grow, marking a critical step towards commercialization [6] Group 4: Commercial Space Acceleration - The commercial space sector is entering a new phase of rapid evolution, supported by government policies and increased capital investment [8] - The global commercial space market is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 10.5% over the next five years [8] - The demand for satellite launches is expected to surge, with significant increases in the number of satellites being deployed [9] Group 5: Solid-State Battery Development - Solid-state batteries are gaining attention as a transformative technology for electric vehicles, with major manufacturers announcing plans for testing and production [10] - The timeline for mass production is set for 2027, with initial production expected to be in small batches [11] - The industry faces challenges in cost and manufacturing processes, with a consensus that semi-solid batteries will precede full solid-state solutions [10] Group 6: L3 Autonomous Driving - The introduction of L3 autonomous driving is accelerating due to supportive policies and decreasing costs in the supply chain [12] - The commercial application of L3 technology is expected to expand significantly in 2026, with several manufacturers already in the approval process [13] - The transition from assisted to fully automated driving represents a critical milestone for the industry, with ongoing improvements in technology and data accumulation [13] Group 7: Real Estate Debt Restructuring - Major real estate companies like Country Garden and Sunac have successfully completed debt restructuring, indicating a shift in the industry’s approach to financial challenges [14] - The total scale of debt restructuring in 2025 reached approximately 1.2 trillion yuan, significantly alleviating short-term repayment pressures for affected companies [14] - The focus for 2026 will be on balancing risk management and transformation within the real estate sector, with expectations for continued progress in debt resolution [15] Group 8: "15th Five-Year Plan" Initiatives - The "15th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes high-quality development and technological self-reliance as key objectives for the next five years [16] - The plan outlines initiatives to enhance the modern industrial system and promote strategic emerging industries, including quantum technology and renewable energy [17] - Increasing the resident consumption rate is highlighted as a crucial goal, with measures aimed at boosting consumer spending and improving living standards [18]

Core Viewpoint - The sudden passing of the chairman of Guoshield Quantum, Lv Pin, raises uncertainties for the company and its future direction in the quantum technology sector [3][18]. Company Overview - Guoshield Quantum (688027.SH) is recognized as the "first stock in quantum technology" and was established in May 2009, listing on the Sci-Tech Innovation Board in July 2020, focusing on quantum communication equipment manufacturing and quantum information system services [33]. - The company has a deep partnership with China Telecom, which has been a significant factor in its business operations since 2014 [33]. Recent Events - On December 18, 2023, Lv Pin, the chairman of Guoshield Quantum, passed away unexpectedly at the age of 46, leading to a police investigation that ruled out foul play [3][14]. - Following his death, Guoshield Quantum confirmed that the board would continue to function normally, with the management team maintaining their responsibilities [19]. Financial Performance - Guoshield Quantum has faced financial challenges, reporting revenues of 1.79 billion, 1.35 billion, 1.56 billion, and 2.53 billion yuan from 2021 to 2024, with corresponding net losses of 370.62 million, 861.85 million, 1.24 billion, and 318.41 million yuan [33]. - As of 2025, the company continues to operate at a loss, although the quarterly loss has narrowed significantly, with net losses of 20.31 million, 3.48 million, and 2.68 million yuan reported in the first three quarters [34]. Leadership Transition - Following Lv Pin's passing, the board appointed Ying Yong as the interim chairman and legal representative, who previously served as the company's chairman and president [19]. - The company emphasized that the board's composition remains compliant with legal standards, and it will expedite the process of electing a new chairman [19]. Market Reaction - After the announcement of Lv Pin's death, Guoshield Quantum's stock experienced a slight decline of 1.78% on December 19, but rebounded with a 2.94% increase by December 23, raising its market capitalization to approximately 53.4 billion yuan [19].

Group 1: Market Review and Outlook - The mechanical equipment industry outperformed the market in 2025, with an overall increase of 27.80%, surpassing the Shanghai Composite Index by 17.65 percentage points [10][11] - The industry saw a recovery in performance, with revenue reaching 15,337 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.34%, and net profit of 1,103 billion yuan, up 14.19% [11] - The outlook for 2026 is optimistic, with expectations of a moderate recovery in macroeconomic conditions and improvements in domestic manufacturing demand [15][18] Group 2: Investment Directions: New Technologies - Focus on new technologies such as humanoid robots, nuclear fusion, quantum technology, low-speed unmanned systems, and perovskite solar cells, which are expected to drive industry upgrades and innovation [15][19] - Humanoid robots are shifting from theme-driven investments to value verification, with a focus on production schedules and scene orders [28][30] - Nuclear fusion is gaining momentum with accelerated technological progress and policy support, particularly in the Tokamak technology route [19][60] Group 3: Investment Directions: Cyclical Recovery - The cyclical recovery is driven by overseas expansion and policy support, with expectations for high export demand in 2026 [23][24] - The engineering machinery sector is showing strong recovery momentum, with significant growth in overseas exports and stabilization in domestic sales [23] - The oil service sector is entering an upward cycle, driven by the natural gas industry and AI computing power demands [23] Group 4: Recommended Stocks and Investment Portfolio - The investment strategy emphasizes a dual approach, focusing on both global benchmark chains and domestic supply chains [52][53] - Key recommended stocks include Sanhua Intelligent Controls, Beite Technology, and Yushun Technology, which are positioned to benefit from the growth in humanoid robots and related technologies [53][54] - The portfolio should balance between high visibility stocks linked to Tesla's supply chain and those offering higher growth potential in the domestic market [54][55]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the recent research conducted by Kangmand Capital on a listed company, Guodun Quantum, focusing on the fields of quantum communication, quantum computing, and quantum precision measurement [1] - The research discussed the challenges in quantum communication technology, such as high-efficiency low-noise single-photon detection, and the potential for operators to explore quantum functionalities in the 6G era [1] - Quantum communication devices are primarily project-based, offering customized solutions, and are expected to integrate with traditional encryption companies rather than disrupt them [1] Group 2 - The current state of quantum computers is that they can only solve specific problems, with applications in AI still in the early stages [1] - Quantum security strategies include quantum key distribution and post-quantum algorithms, with quantum computing chips being similar to classical semiconductor chips in processing but differing in technical principles [1] - The collaboration with the University of Science and Technology of China is noted for the company's chip development, and it is emphasized that quantum computers are not expected to become mainstream but rather serve as a complement to classical computers [1]

导读： 揭秘航空航天领域的科学仪器，它们是航天任务的幕后英雄，支撑材料分析、环境模拟、测控通信等关键环节。值此航天日之际，仪器信息网特别盘点梳 理航空航天领域应用到的科学仪器。 特别提示 微信公众号机制调整，请点击顶部"仪器信息网" → 右上方"…" → 设为 ★ 星标，否则很可能无法看到我们的推送。 4月2 4日，我们迎来了第十个中国航天日。从1 9 7 0年4月2 4日我国成功发射第一颗人造地球卫星 "东方红" 1 号，到如今中国空间站全面开启建 设、"天问一号" 实现行星际探测跨越，我国航天事业取得了举世瞩目的辉煌成就。在这场星辰大海的征途中，除了航天人的不懈努力，还有众 多科学仪器在默默发挥着关键作用，无数科学仪器与检测设备默默支撑着每一次发射、每一刻驻留、每一项实验，它们堪称助力航空航天的幕 后英雄。值此航天日之际，仪器信息网特别盘点梳理航空航天领域应用到的科学仪器，参考仪器信息网的仪器分类体系，通过案例与数据，揭 秘这些"幕后英雄"的科技力量。 材料分析仪器：筑牢航天材料根基 航空航天材料需具备高强度、低密度、耐高温、耐辐射等特性。材料分析仪器可对材料微观结构、成分及性能进行精确分析，为材料研发、 ...

Key Insights - The report highlights that the U.S. CPI increased by 2.4% year-on-year in March, with core CPI at 3.0%, which is significantly below expectations, indicating potential economic stagnation before the impact of tariffs is fully realized [2][3] - The report suggests that the large-scale tariff impacts may lead to a scenario of "short-term stagflation and long-term deflation," with expectations of the Federal Reserve starting to cut interest rates in the second half of the year [5][6] - The semiconductor industry in China is expected to benefit from domestic self-sufficiency initiatives due to U.S. tariff policies, with a focus on companies involved in domestic semiconductor manufacturing and RF and analog ICs [18][21] - The communication sector is identified as having significant growth potential in areas such as optical communication, quantum communication, and satellite communication, driven by the need for self-sufficiency in technology [23][24] - The textile and apparel industry is advised to focus on high-quality growth and international capacity layout, as smaller companies may struggle to absorb tariff costs, leading to market consolidation [26][29] Macro Insights - The report indicates that the macroeconomic environment is characterized by a potential liquidity crisis in the U.S. bond market, with expectations of multiple interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve later in the year [5][6] - The report notes that the market is currently reacting negatively to inflation data, with significant declines in U.S. stock indices and a weakening dollar [6][11] Sector-Specific Insights - In the semiconductor sector, the report emphasizes the importance of local production strategies in response to tariffs, which may lead to increased demand for domestic manufacturers like SMIC and Huahong Semiconductor [20][21] - The communication sector is highlighted for its potential to develop a robust domestic technology ecosystem, with a focus on companies that can navigate the current geopolitical landscape [23][24] - The textile and apparel sector is advised to leverage international production advantages and focus on high-value products to maintain margins amid tariff pressures [26][29] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies in the semiconductor industry that are aligned with self-sufficiency goals and have strong domestic production capabilities [21] - In the communication sector, it suggests investing in firms with clear technological advantages and market share growth potential [24] - For the textile and apparel industry, the report advises targeting leading companies with established overseas production capabilities to weather tariff impacts [29]