食品饮料/食品加工 锅圈（02517.HK） 2026 年 02 月 27 日 投资评级：买入（首次） ——公司首次覆盖报告 | 日期 | 2026/2/26 | | --- | --- | | 当前股价(港元) | 4.180 | | 一年最高最低(港元) | 4.530/1.770 | | 总市值(亿港元) | 114.84 | | 流通市值(亿港元) | 109.90 | | 总股本(亿股) | 27.47 | | 流通港股(亿股) | 26.29 | | 近 3 个月换手率(%) | 30.02 | 股价走势图 -40% 0% 40% 80% 120% 160% 2025-02 2025-06 2025-10 锅圈 恒生指数 数据来源：聚源 证书编号：S0790520030003 证书编号：S0790522080008 证书编号：S0790525020004 ⚫ 公司经营重回高质量加速增长通道，开店提速与单店增长实现"戴维斯双击" 凭借"社区门口火锅食材超市"定位，精准切入中国餐饮零售化浪潮，经历 2024 年调 整与门店调优后，于 2025 年正式重启扩张节奏，2025 年全年门店净增 1416 家 ...

Core Insights - The core viewpoint of the articles emphasizes the growth and strategic adjustments of Guoquan Food over the past decade, focusing on meeting family dining needs and adapting to market changes [1][2]. Group 1: Company Growth and Strategy - Guoquan Food has grown to 11,566 stores over ten years by focusing on the core needs of family dining, aiming to make meals convenient, tasty, and affordable [1]. - The company has avoided blind expansion by concentrating on single-store profitability, ensuring growth is internally generated rather than relying on external factors [1]. - In 2025, despite a challenging market environment, Guoquan Food achieved significant revenue growth and nearly doubled profits by optimizing the operational structure of underperforming stores [1]. Group 2: Future Plans and Innovations - In 2026, Guoquan Food plans to enhance its "at-home dining" strategy by adjusting its store model, promoting 150-square-meter community stores tailored to urban and community structures [2]. - The company aims to improve its rural store offerings by increasing the proportion of bulk, loose, and frozen protein products, aligning with family purchasing habits [2]. - Guoquan Food intends to enrich its family dining solutions by standardizing ingredients and enhancing supply capabilities, integrating smart cooking machines and AI digital recipes to address daily meal challenges [2].

Core Viewpoint - The report from CICC maintains the core net profit forecast for Guoquan (02517) at 440 million CNY for 2025 and 550 million CNY for 2026, with a new forecast of 660 million CNY for 2027. The current stock price corresponds to a P/E ratio of 19x for 2026 and 15x for 2027, with an upside potential of 17% based on a target price of 4.90 HKD [1]. Company Status - CICC recently participated in a survey of Guoquan's new store model and expects stable same-store growth in the second half of 2025. The firm anticipates an accelerated store opening pace in 2026 and suggests monitoring the effects of store adjustments and the potential of new models [2]. Same-Store Growth and Profit Margin Outlook - The firm projects same-store growth rates in the low to high single digits for Q3 and Q4 of 2025. Looking ahead, the company is expected to enhance customer habits through more package offerings and product innovations, aiming to increase average transaction value. Strategies such as product diversification and improved membership operations are anticipated to drive customer traffic growth. The company is expected to maintain single-digit same-store growth in 2026, with long-term core profit margins projected to rise to 7-8% through upstream supply chain optimization and economies of scale [3]. Accelerated Store Opening and Large Store Model - The company plans to increase its store count by 1,416 to a total of 11,566 stores in 2025, with an expected closure rate improving to the mid-single digits. In 2026, the company aims to accelerate store openings to capture market share, with over half of new stores located in rural areas. The company will also optimize store types by upgrading existing small stores to larger formats of over 80 square meters, enhancing revenue capabilities through increased visibility, improved product offerings, and extended operating hours [4]. New Model Potential - The company is exploring new models, such as the "Guoquan Stir-fry" concept, which combines in-store purchases with on-site cooking by robots and online pre-ordering. The first pilot store is operating in Zhengzhou. Future expansion plans include integrating this model into existing stores and establishing small specialty stores alongside current locations. The Guoquan Stir-fry model shares supply chains and digital infrastructure with Guoquan Shihui, targeting a customer price point that is half of that in the broader dining market. Additionally, the company is innovating with camping sites, offering package deals for hot pot, barbecue, and afternoon tea to attract camping enthusiasts. Monitoring the validation of this single-store model is recommended [5].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the successful implementation of AI in the restaurant industry, particularly through the case of Guoquan, which has achieved significant growth by focusing on cost-effectiveness and market expansion in lower-tier cities [3][4][5]. Group 1: Company Performance - Guoquan expects total revenue for 2025 to be between 7.75 billion and 7.85 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 19.8% to 21.3%, marking a historical high [5]. - The net profit is projected to be between 443 million and 463 million yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 83.7% to 92.0% [6]. - The core operating profit is expected to be between 450 million and 470 million yuan, with a growth of 44.8% to 51.2%, also setting a new record [6]. Group 2: Market Strategy - The company has focused on expanding into lower-tier markets, with nearly 60% of its over 10,000 stores located in third-tier cities and below [9]. - By the end of 2025, Guoquan's total number of stores reached 11,566, exceeding its target of 1,000 new stores for the year, with significant contributions from rural stores [12]. - The average revenue per store in 2025 is approximately 674,400 yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 5.8%, indicating effective management of new store operations [16]. Group 3: Cost Control and Supply Chain - Guoquan has developed an integrated supply chain ecosystem, reducing costs by eliminating intermediaries, which allows for competitive pricing [20][21]. - The company has established 19 central warehouses and invested in 7 core factories, enhancing its supply chain efficiency [20]. - Guoquan's core products are priced competitively compared to similar products, showcasing its cost advantage [22]. Group 4: AI Integration - Guoquan is leveraging AI to standardize Chinese cuisine through its "Guoquan Stir-fry" project, which utilizes smart cooking devices to replace traditional chefs [26][30]. - The project aims to reduce labor costs by 70% and overall store costs by 30%, while maintaining high-quality standards [27][28]. - The AI-driven cooking system allows for consistent quality and flavor, addressing the challenges of traditional cooking methods [29]. Group 5: Future Outlook - Guoquan plans to expand its "Guoquan Stir-fry" project to a scale of 10,000 stores, positioning it as a potential second growth curve for the company [32]. - The company has rapidly expanded since its establishment in 2017, becoming a major player in the community dining and food retail sector [33].

Core Viewpoint - The company, Guoquan (锅圈), is expected to achieve significant revenue and profit growth in 2025, with projected revenues of 7.75 billion to 7.85 billion yuan and net profits of 443 million to 463 million yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 19.8% to 21.3% in revenue and 83.7% to 92% in profit [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - In 2022, the company reached a revenue peak of 7.173 billion yuan but experienced a 15% decline in 2023 to 6.094 billion yuan due to decreased demand for home hot pot following the end of public health events [1] - The company anticipates a slight recovery in 2024 with revenues increasing to 6.47 billion yuan, although still below the 2022 peak [1] - The expansion of store openings is a key factor driving the anticipated performance rebound in 2025, with a target of opening 10,000 new stores by the end of that year [1][3] Group 2: Store Expansion and Operations - As of 2025, the total number of stores is expected to reach 11,566, an increase of 1,416 stores from the beginning of the year, with a notable acceleration in store openings in the fourth quarter [3] - The company operates primarily through a franchise model, with 99.9% of its stores being franchisee-operated, which poses challenges in terms of store management and food safety [3][4] - Recent food safety incidents have raised concerns, including complaints about food quality and hygiene, which could impact the brand's reputation [4][6] Group 3: Strategic Initiatives - The company is exploring new business models, including a strategic investment in a smart kitchen service provider to launch "Guoquan Stir-fry," aiming to enter the smart Chinese cuisine market [6][8] - Plans for store renovations include transitioning from smaller stores of 70 square meters to larger ones of 150 square meters, with a long-term goal of establishing community central kitchens of 400 square meters [8] - The company aims to renovate 3,000 existing stores and open an additional 3,000 large stores in 2026, representing approximately 26% of the current store count [8]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of Dongwu Securities maintains a "buy" rating for Guoquan (02517), highlighting a strong start to the year with continued positive same-store trends [1] - The company is expected to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of 4.5 billion, 6.0 billion, and 7.6 billion yuan for 2025-2027, reflecting year-on-year growth of 94%, 34%, and 27% respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 24, 18, and 14X [1] - The company is expanding its store formats and enhancing its scene-based capabilities, aiming for a "one-time area expansion leading to threefold performance increase" through product category expansion and flexible supply chain management [1] Group 2 - The new business model "Guoquan Xiaochao" has been launched, which is expected to open new market opportunities by utilizing a standardized supply chain and smart cooking robots, allowing for quick meal preparation [2] - This initiative is seen as a significant extension of the company's "community central kitchen" strategy, enriching the consumption scenarios for family meals and serving as a key driver for exploring a second growth curve [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of Dongwu Securities maintains a "buy" rating for Guoquan (02517), highlighting a strong performance during the New Year and continued positive trends in same-store sales [1] - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 450 million, 600 million, and 760 million yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth of 94%, 34%, and 27% [1] - The price-to-earnings ratio (PE) is projected to be 24, 18, and 14 times for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 [1] Group 2 - The company is expanding its store formats and enhancing its scene-based capabilities, aiming for a strategy of "doubling the area and tripling the performance" through store renovations [1] - The introduction of high-frequency product categories such as fried food and beverages is expected to drive sales of lower-frequency hot pot ingredients [1] - The new "Guoquan Xiaochao" business model is expected to open new market opportunities, utilizing standardized supply chains and smart cooking robots to enhance efficiency and reduce costs [2] - This new model is seen as a key part of the company's "community central kitchen" strategy, enriching the consumption scenarios for family meals and serving as a critical driver for exploring a second growth curve [2]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The company has successfully expanded its store formats, with the introduction of "锅圈小炒" (small stir-fry restaurants) expected to create new growth opportunities. This new format utilizes a standardized supply chain and smart cooking robots, allowing for quick meal preparation and competitive pricing compared to takeout [7] - The company has demonstrated strong same-store sales growth, even in the face of high comparatives, indicating effective product innovation and refined membership management. The management's deep involvement in store operations and flexible supply chain management has been highlighted as a previously underestimated capability [7] - The financial forecasts have been revised upwards due to anticipated better performance in store openings and same-store revenue. The projected net profits for 2025-2027 are 4.5 billion, 6.0 billion, and 7.6 billion RMB, respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 94%, 34%, and 27% [7] Financial Summary - Total revenue is projected to grow from 6,100 million RMB in 2023 to 10,916 million RMB in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 19.06% [1] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to increase from 239.64 million RMB in 2023 to 755.98 million RMB in 2027, with significant growth in the coming years [1] - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to rise from 0.09 RMB in 2023 to 0.28 RMB in 2027, indicating a strong improvement in profitability [1]

Core Viewpoint - The stock of Guoquan (02517) has increased by over 6%, currently trading at 3.7 HKD with a transaction volume of 64.57 million HKD, driven by the upcoming trial operation of its new business model "Guoquan Xiaochao" on January 6, 2026 [1] Group 1: Business Model and Strategy - The "Guoquan Xiaochao" project focuses on using smart cooking machines to provide efficient and flavorful Chinese meals in community settings, leveraging Guoquan's strengths in compound seasonings and supply chain management [1] - Huaxi Securities (002926) believes that the new business model can optimize labor efficiency through smart cooking machines and data analysis to identify popular menu items, potentially becoming a new profit growth point for the company once the model is proven [1] Group 2: Market Position and Growth Potential - Zhongtai Securities (600918) highlights that the company has a competitive advantage through its integrated supply chain, ensuring quality and cost leadership, along with a network of over 10,000 community stores for comprehensive sales fulfillment [1] - The company is expected to benefit in the short term from same-store sales growth and improved cost-effectiveness, while long-term growth will come from store expansion, new business models, and increased self-production ratios leading to scale profitability [1]

Core Viewpoint - The stock of Guoquan (02517) has increased by over 6%, currently trading at 3.7 HKD with a transaction volume of 64.57 million HKD, following the announcement of the trial operation of its first store for "Guoquan Xiaochao" on January 6, 2026 [1] Group 1: Business Development - The new business model "Guoquan Xiaochao" focuses on using smart cooking machines to provide efficient and flavorful Chinese meals in community settings, leveraging Guoquan's strengths in compound seasoning and ingredient supply chains [1] - Huaxi Securities believes that the new model can optimize labor efficiency through smart cooking machines, leading to standardized operations and data analysis to identify the most popular menu items, which could become a new profit growth point for the company once the model is proven [1] Group 2: Competitive Advantages - Zhongtai Securities highlights the company's deep integration in the restaurant retail business, emphasizing its competitive edge through a well-integrated supply chain that ensures quality and cost leadership, along with a sales network supported by over 10,000 community stores for comprehensive fulfillment [1] - The company is expected to benefit in the short term from same-store sales growth and improved cost-effectiveness, while long-term growth will be driven by store expansion, the successful implementation of new business models, and an increase in self-produced goods from factories [1]