研究院 2025 年 10 月 09 日 2025 年第 35 期（总第 607 期） Ω 中银研究产品系列 | 作 者：周景彤 中国银行研究院 | | --- | | 叶银丹 中国银行研究院 | | 刘 晨 中国银行研究院 | | 电 话：010 - 6659 4264 | 签发人：陈卫东 联系人：程栖云 刘佩忠 电 话：010 - 6659 4016 ＊ 对外公开 ＊＊ 全辖传阅 ＊＊＊ 内参材料 "十五五"专题研究系列之二 我国经济社会发展内外部环境条件 八大趋势（下）＊ "十五五"时期，我国正处于新旧动能转换关键 期，大力发展新质生产力是持续激发经济增长潜力、 推动经济高质量发展的重大战略部署。在供给端，科 技创新驱动新动能不断涌现，新质生产力有望继续发 展壮大。大批科技创新成果加速涌现，催生新的经济 形态和增长极；以新质生产力发展为主线加快因地制 宜构建现代化体系，新旧发展动能加快实现接续转 换。同时，顺应我国经济、社会、人口发展趋势持续 优化布局，不利因素的拖累作用有望减轻。房地产市 场向新的均衡水平回归，城市更新等将带来新增长空 间；老龄化、少子化趋势下，人口红利加快向人才红 利转化。 伦敦经济 ...

Group 1 - The World Intellectual Property Organization (WIPO) released the 2025 Global Innovation Index report, showing China ranked 10th globally, marking its first entry into the top ten and leading among 36 upper-middle-income economies, having risen 25 places since 2013 [1] - In terms of innovation output, China ranked 5th in 2025, up 2 places from 2024, while its innovation input ranked 19th globally, an increase of 4 places from the previous year [1] - China leads in several areas, holding the top position in multiple intellectual property-related sub-indicators and ranking 2nd globally in patent applications per GDP, industrial cluster development, and corporate R&D expenditure as a percentage of GDP [1] Group 2 - Despite China's strong performance, global innovation growth is slowing, with expected R&D spending growth of 2.9% in 2024, down from 4.4% in 2023, marking the lowest level since 2010 [2] - International patent applications are projected to grow by only 0.5% in 2024, significantly lower than the 2.5% average growth rate over the past decade, while China continues to be the largest applicant, accounting for nearly 25% of global applications [2] - The report emphasizes that innovation ecosystems require thoughtful policies, meaningful investments, and cross-sector collaboration, with China's innovation achievements stemming from a strategic, long-term, and systematic national approach [2] Group 3 - China's innovation success is driven by a robust market dynamic, with enterprises as the main innovators engaging in emerging industries and technological transformations [3] - In 2024, R&D spending among 1,510 global companies reached approximately $1.3 trillion, marking the slowest nominal growth since 2010, while Chinese companies are experiencing rapid growth in R&D investments [3] - A total of 524 Chinese companies made it to the global top 2000 in industrial R&D spending, representing 26.2% of the total, with significant growth rates observed in companies like BYD and Tencent [3] Group 4 - China's notable achievements in innovation are attributed to its advantageous position in emerging industries and a vast commercial application market, including sectors like robotics, electric vehicles, and high-speed rail [4] - The rapid growth of technological innovation in China is a result of the effective combination of proactive government policies and a dynamic market, leading to accelerated integration of technological and industrial innovation [4] - With the advantages of a large-scale market and intensified competition among enterprises, China is expected to enhance industrial efficiency and technological superiority across various innovation metrics and fields [4]

Group 1 - The Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) emphasizes the "Shanghai Spirit" of mutual trust, mutual benefit, equality, consultation, respect for diverse civilizations, and seeking common development, which is increasingly important in the current global context [1] - The upcoming SCO summit in Tianjin from August 31 to September 1, 2025, is highly anticipated by Nepal, which hopes it will create development opportunities for more developing countries [1] - The growing number of countries seeking to join the SCO reflects the organization's increasing influence and attractiveness [1] Group 2 - China is committed to helping developing countries through platforms like the SCO without imposing any additional conditions, aiming for shared development and the construction of a community with a shared future for mankind [2] - The SCO is the only regional international organization named after a Chinese city, highlighting its significance and China's role in regional cooperation [2] - China's rapid development over the past decade has been impressive, with notable advancements in poverty alleviation, environmental restoration, and technological innovation [2] Group 3 - China's emphasis on planning is evident in the implementation of its five-year plans, which have led to tangible development achievements [3] - The establishment of the Fudan University Nepal Alumni Association in June 2023 has brought together over 30 alumni, contributing to Nepal-China friendship [3] - Many Nepali students view China as a preferred destination for studying abroad, with cities like Beijing and Shanghai being popular choices [3]

Core Insights - The article highlights the significant disparity in electricity generation between China and India, emphasizing China's position as a global leader in power generation and its advanced energy infrastructure [1][3][5]. Group 1: Electricity Generation and Capacity - In 2024, China's electricity generation reached 10.0868 trillion kilowatt-hours, accounting for nearly 30% of global electricity generation, which is 2.5 times that of the U.S. and nearly five times that of India [5][7]. - China's installed power generation capacity reached 3.35 billion kilowatts in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 15%, and is expected to exceed 3.6 billion kilowatts by 2025 [7][11]. - The breakdown of installed capacity in 2024 shows that thermal power accounts for 43.14%, hydropower 13.02%, wind power 15.55%, and solar power 26.45% [7][8]. Group 2: Electrification and Renewable Energy - China's electrification rate stands at 30%, surpassing the U.S. and EU rates of 22%, with electric vehicles making up 40.9% of total passenger car sales in 2024 [9]. - Renewable energy contributed 10% to China's GDP in 2024, indicating its growing role in economic growth and the gradual replacement of fossil fuels [9]. Group 3: Policy and Reform - The rise of China's electricity sector is attributed to strong policy support, including the "separation of generation and grid" reform in 2002, which introduced market competition and improved efficiency [10][11]. - Continuous investment in power infrastructure and market reforms have driven the growth of installed capacity from 57.12 million kilowatts in 1978 to 3.35 billion kilowatts in 2024 [11]. Group 4: Green Transition Strategy - China aims for peak carbon emissions by 2030 and carbon neutrality by 2060, with non-fossil energy expected to account for 20% of total energy consumption by 2025 and 25% by 2030 [12]. - In 2024, wind and solar power installations accounted for 82.6% of new capacity, with significant advancements in nuclear power and energy storage technologies [12][15]. Group 5: High Voltage Transmission Technology - China's breakthroughs in ultra-high voltage transmission technology, capable of transmitting electricity over thousands of kilometers with low losses, are crucial for addressing geographical disparities in energy resources [13]. Group 6: Clean Energy Technology - China leads globally in clean energy technologies, with high operational efficiency in wind and solar power, achieving utilization rates of 95.9% and 96.8% respectively in 2024 [15]. Group 7: Emerging Fields - New energy storage and hydrogen energy sectors experienced explosive growth in 2024, with new storage capacity reaching 73.76 million kilowatts, a year-on-year increase of over 130% [16][18]. Group 8: Global Impact - China is not only the largest electricity producer but also supports energy needs in 14 countries, enhancing its geopolitical influence and providing economic support to neighboring nations [19]. - The vision for a global smart grid by 2050 aims to efficiently allocate energy resources worldwide, addressing climate change challenges [19]. Group 9: Future Outlook - By 2025, China's total installed power generation capacity is expected to exceed 3.6 billion kilowatts, with continued leadership in renewable energy installations [21]. - The evolution of China's electricity industry reflects a century-long journey from limited power generation to becoming a global leader in clean energy technology and electrification [22].

Group 1: Government Debt Management - The provincial government is actively managing debt through special bonds for various sectors, including transportation, water conservancy, and education [1][2] - In the transportation sector, special bonds are allocated for highway and high-speed rail construction, with a focus on projects like the Xixiang to Zhenba and Ankang to Lanhua highways [1] - The provincial transportation department aims to complete the '米' shaped high-speed rail network by 2028, ensuring connectivity between cities [1] Group 2: Audit and Oversight - The provincial audit office is enhancing government debt management systems and addressing hidden debt risks through audits of local government special bonds and financing platforms [2] - Collaboration with the provincial People's Congress is emphasized to improve oversight and develop relevant systems [2] - Annual reports on audit rectification work are submitted to the provincial People's Congress to ensure accountability [2]

Core Viewpoint - China is set to become the world's first "electrostate," leading in electrification with a rate of 30%, significantly higher than the approximately 22% in the US and EU [3][4]. Electrification Progress - China's electrification rate has reached 30%, surpassing the stagnating rates of the US and EU [3][4]. - In the transportation sector, China's electric vehicle (EV) sales are projected to account for 47.9% of total passenger car sales in 2024, a significant increase from 6.3% in 2020 [4]. - The rapid expansion of China's modern railway network, with 45,000 kilometers of high-speed rail, is five times that of the EU and is expected to reach 60,000 kilometers by 2030 [4]. Economic Impact - Renewable energy's contribution to China's GDP has surpassed 10%, marking a historical high and contributing to a quarter of the country's economic growth [5]. - Electrification is viewed as a key strategy for achieving energy security and addressing climate change [5][6]. Technological Leadership - China is leading the Fourth Industrial Revolution with advancements in electrification, renewable energy, artificial intelligence, robotics, and the Internet of Things [4]. - The transition to clean energy technology is becoming a driving force for China's economic growth, similar to how oil and gas propelled the development of oil-rich Arab states [4]. Environmental Considerations - Despite a surge in coal consumption leading to record carbon emissions in the power sector, China's progress in electrification and renewable energy transition is expected to mitigate some environmental impacts [6].

Group 1 - The article emphasizes the importance of international cooperation, particularly between France and China, in addressing global challenges and fostering technological innovation [2][3] - The establishment of the Greater Bay Area International Vaccine Innovation Center in Shenzhen showcases the collaborative efforts in vaccine distribution and technology, highlighting the potential of cross-cultural partnerships [2] - China's significant market size, with over 1.4 billion people and more than 400 million middle-income individuals, positions it as a vital engine for global economic growth, contributing approximately 30% to global economic growth [3] Group 2 - The deepening cooperation between France and China, especially in third-party market collaborations, has shown substantial potential, with projects in Africa and Central and Eastern Europe [3] - The fourth round of third-party market cooperation projects signed in 2022 includes seven projects in infrastructure, environmental protection, and renewable energy, totaling over $1.7 billion [3] - The article advocates for a future where global development is characterized by collaboration rather than conflict, promoting a harmonious international community [4]

Core Viewpoint - The discussion highlights the increasing wealth inequality in the U.S., the inefficiency of government, and the stagnation of technological progress, suggesting that these issues are interconnected and may lead to significant societal consequences [2][3][6]. Summary by Sections Wealth Inequality - The disparity between the wealth of the top 1% and the bottom 99% has been growing at an unprecedented rate, potentially surpassing levels seen in the early 20th century [2][3]. - The right-wing has largely ignored this issue, either denying its existence or deeming it unimportant, which is seen as a significant blind spot [2][3]. Government Inefficiency - Government efficiency has deteriorated, with rising expenditures failing to yield proportional improvements in governance [3][4]. - Examples include the prolonged construction times for infrastructure projects compared to historical benchmarks, indicating a decline in operational effectiveness [3][4]. Technological Stagnation - There is a concern that technological progress has slowed since the late 1960s, with significant innovations becoming rare outside of specific sectors like computing and finance [6][7]. - The stagnation in technological advancement is linked to broader economic growth issues, leading to political cynicism and a zero-sum perception of economic competition [7][10]. Globalization's Impact - Globalization has created a "winner-takes-all" environment, adversely affecting the middle class and white-collar workers, particularly through labor arbitrage with countries like China [12][20]. - The benefits of globalization have not been evenly distributed, leading to increased inequality and social unrest [12][20]. Education and Innovation - The education system is criticized for perpetuating a bubble, with many students accumulating debt without securing corresponding employment opportunities [27][29]. - There is a call for a reevaluation of educational investments and a shift towards recognizing non-college career paths as viable options [27][29]. Future Considerations - The discussion raises philosophical questions about the role of government in planning for the future, particularly in the context of technological innovation and economic policy [15][17]. - The potential for long-term societal issues stemming from demographic changes and technological stagnation is emphasized, suggesting a need for proactive policy adjustments [23][24].