机构观点 □ 瑞银：黄金在今年前三季度将达到6200美元/盎司，随后在12月底前回调至5900美元/盎司 □ 高盛：中期看多黄金，基准情景下预计金价到今年底会缓慢上行至5400美元/盎司 ◎记者 张骄 2026年春节假期，国际贵金属市场先抑后扬，重拾升势。 伦敦现货黄金（下称"伦敦金"）连续四个交易日反弹，一度升破5200美元/盎司，伦敦现货白银（下 称"伦敦银"）走势与黄金高度同步，但弹性更为突出。截至2月23日收盘，伦敦金在春节假期期间累计 上涨约3.67%，伦敦银涨约14.03%。 2月24日，伦敦金冲高回落，在5200美元/盎司关口附近震荡整理；伦敦银盘中一度翻红，重返88美元/ 盎司上方。同日，上海黄金交易所黄金T+D午盘收报1147元/克，涨3.6%。 近期金价剧烈波动，多国央行或暂时减缓购金需求。高盛认为，近期私营部门买入黄金看涨期权的多元 化需求推升了金价波动，并在短期内抑制了全球央行购金节奏。不过，这种放缓应是暂时现象。多国央 行仍有意愿增持黄金以对冲地缘政治与金融风险，只是倾向于待价格波动回稳后恢复采购，因此当前节 奏更多是"等待波动收敛"的策略性调整，而非趋势性转向。 短期内，Cboe黄 ...

报告引用彭博与高盛的数据称，作为最大黄金ETF的GLD，其看涨期权未平仓量（扣除看跌期权后）处于纪录水平，成为波动上行的重要"代理指 标"。 机制上，高盛表示，金价走高时，卖出看涨期权的交易商为了维持对冲被迫买入黄金，放大上涨；而一旦出现哪怕不大的回调，交易商对冲行为 可能反向，从"追涨买入"切换为"下跌卖出"，并可能触发投资者止损出局，导致进一步损失。高盛提醒，类似的"止损踩踏"在1月下旬曾出现过。 黄金市场的主导变量正在从"买不买"转向"波动有多大"。高盛认为，私营部门通过黄金看涨期权结构表达的多元化需求推升了金价波动，并在短 期内压制了央行购金节奏，但这一下降应是暂时的。 高盛分析师Lina Thomas和Daan Struyven在本周报告中指出，看涨期权需求上升迫使卖出期权的交易商在上涨过程中被动买入黄金对冲，从而机械 性放大涨幅。更关键的是，即便只是小幅回调，也可能促使交易商从"逢高买入"切换为"逢低卖出"，进而触发投资者止损单并导致进一步损失， 高盛称这一链条在1月下旬已有所体现。 在波动抬升的背景下，央行需求出现放缓，2025年12月为22吨，而目前12个月平均值为52吨。高盛强调，央行仍愿意 ...

黄金市场的主导变量正在从"买不买"转向"波动有多大"。高盛认为，私营部门通过黄金看涨期权结构表达的多元化需求推升了金价波动，并在短 期内压制了央行购金节奏，但这一下降应是暂时的。 高盛分析师Lina Thomas和Daan Struyven在本周报告中指出，看涨期权需求上升迫使卖出期权的交易商在上涨过程中被动买入黄金对冲，从而机械 性放大涨幅。更关键的是，即便只是小幅回调，也可能促使交易商从"逢高买入"切换为"逢低卖出"，进而触发投资者止损单并导致进一步损失， 高盛称这一链条在1月下旬已有所体现。 在波动抬升的背景下，央行需求出现放缓，2025年12月为22吨，而目前12个月平均值为52吨。高盛强调，央行仍愿意为对冲地缘政治与金融风险 而买入黄金，但倾向于在价格波动回落后再恢复采购，因此放缓更像"等待波动收敛"，而非趋势性转向。 对投资者而言，这意味着短期下行尾部风险上升。高盛提示，在期权需求回到纪录水平后，一些通常只会带来温和回撤的催化剂，也可能引发更 大幅度的金价回撤，估算的下行边界在4,700美元/盎司附近。但在中期，高盛仍重申看多黄金，基准情景下预计金价到2026年底缓慢上行至5,400 美元/盎司。 ...

一、国内零售与回收价格动态 国内黄金零售市场普遍下调，品牌足金价区间1494—1536元/克，多数较昨日跌5—30元：中国黄金1536元/克，老庙1516元/克，老凤祥1510元/克，周生生 1500元/克，菜百1505元/克。 周大福、金至尊等1499元/克，六福、潮宏基、谢瑞麟、周大生、金大福均跌30元至1492—1497元/克，周六福1494元/克。 深圳水贝足金999—999.99报价1266—1268元/克，含加工费，显著低于品牌店。 银行金条参考上海黄金交易所AU99.99价加计12—18元手续费，农行"传世之宝"1144.92元/克最高，中行"吉祥金"1133.82元/克，建行1109.80元/克，工行"如 意金"1105.14元/克最低。 黄金回收价呈回落态势：2月19日1050元/克（99.9%—99.999%），17—16日1060元/克，15—14日1067元/克，13日回落至1060元/克，12—11日回升至1090 元/克，10日1083元/克，9日1080元/克，显示周内市场评估持续调整。 2026年2月19日，国内黄金零售价普遍回落，品牌金饰多在1494—1536元/克，水贝报价 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent dramatic decline in gold prices, following a record high, raises concerns about whether the current gold bull market, driven by both safe-haven demand and speculative fervor, has reached a critical turning point [1][3]. Price Movement - On October 17, spot gold prices approached $4,380, setting a new historical record, but subsequently fell over 2% during the day, marking the largest single-day drop since Thanksgiving 2024. Despite this, gold prices increased nearly 5% for the week, marking the tenth consecutive week of gains and the best weekly performance since May [1][3]. Market Sentiment and Technical Indicators - Bill Gross, a legendary investor, warned that gold has become a "momentum/meme asset," suggesting potential buyers should wait [3]. - Technical indicators, market sentiment, and positioning are signaling that the gold market is becoming overcrowded, indicating that while gold may still be a "correct" asset, its price may no longer be "appropriate" [3][4]. - The distance between current prices and short-term moving averages is unusually large, with the 21-day moving average around $3,950 and the 50-day moving average at $3,675. A potential reversal pattern is forming, indicating short-term top risks [5]. Volatility and Institutional Positioning - The Gold Volatility Index (GVZ) has surged to extreme levels, reflecting a market driven by panic buying of call options, which could exacerbate price declines if sentiment reverses [7]. - Despite a record net inflow of $34.2 billion into gold ETFs over the past 10 weeks, the incremental inflow is slowing, indicating weakening buying momentum [9][10]. - Institutional positioning is at an extreme, with commodity trading advisors (CTAs) maintaining their highest long positions in gold, suggesting that any price reversal could trigger programmatic selling, amplifying declines [12][14]. Divergence from Traditional Drivers - The current gold bull market is characterized by a significant divergence from traditional fundamental drivers, with gold's rise not aligning with expected influences such as declining real interest rates or a weakening dollar [15][17]. - Gold prices have been rising alongside risk assets, which is unusual, and the recent increase in gold prices has outpaced the decline in real interest rates [15]. - The dollar index has been rising since mid-September, yet gold prices have seemingly ignored this traditional negative correlation [17]. Diverging Opinions on Market Outlook - A debate is emerging among Wall Street analysts regarding whether the current gold market represents a bubble or a new paradigm. Bears argue that the current enthusiasm is waning, while bulls maintain that strong physical demand can explain the price and interest rate divergence [18][19]. - Analysts from major banks suggest that non-traditional policies, including rising fiscal deficits and debt, will continue to support gold prices, with some asserting that the core driver of the current rally is the expectation of a restructuring of the global political economy [19].

Group 1 - Cook's attorney announced plans to sue President Trump over the dismissal, claiming the president lacks the authority to remove him [1] - The case may ultimately be decided by the U.S. Supreme Court, with Cook potentially seeking an injunction to restore his position during the litigation [1] - The Federal Reserve spokesperson emphasized that the long-term fixed terms of board members and protections against dismissal are crucial for ensuring monetary policy decisions are based on data and the long-term interests of the American people [1] Group 2 - The market sentiment has weakened following trade agreements between multiple countries and the U.S., with tariff revenues somewhat offsetting inflationary pressures on dollar assets [5] - Despite the support for the dollar, deteriorating U.S. economic data and significant government deficit pressures under high interest rates remain concerns, alongside increasing negative impacts from tariffs [5] - International gold prices are expected to fluctuate within the $3300-$3400 range, with a recommendation to construct a bullish spread strategy using gold call options during price corrections [5]

Macro News - The Federal Reserve's July meeting minutes revealed that nearly all decision-makers supported not lowering interest rates, with only two dissenters [1] - There are divisions among officials regarding the risks of inflation and employment, with most believing that the risk of rising inflation is greater than the risk of declining employment [1] - Participants noted that the impact of tariffs on inflation will take time to fully manifest [1] - The passage of the GENIUS Act may increase the use of stablecoins, potentially enhancing the efficiency of payment systems and raising demand for supporting assets like U.S. Treasury bonds [1] Gold Market - The logic behind the gold market indicates that the Fed's meeting minutes have heightened market concerns, leading to a rebound in gold prices as the dollar fluctuated [1] - International gold prices closed at $3,374.95 per ounce, up 0.99%, ending a four-day decline, and fluctuated within the $3,300 to $3,400 range [1] - The recommendation is to construct a bullish spread strategy using gold call options when prices correct to appropriate levels [1] Silver Market - The decline in London silver borrowing rates has reduced physical demand, but ETF inflows have supported prices [2] - Industrial demand remains weak, influenced by market sentiment [2] - International silver prices closed at $37.888 per ounce, up 1.41%, nearing the $38 mark, with short-term fluctuations affected by macroeconomic and commodity factors [2] - The strategy is to maintain a low bullish outlook, as institutions continue to accumulate silver amid expectations of Fed rate cuts [2]

Group 1 - The U.S. Treasury Secretary, Yellen, indicated a potential for a 50 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve, suggesting that current rates should be lowered by 150-175 basis points [1] - Atlanta Fed President Bostic stated that if the labor market remains strong, a rate cut in 2025 would be appropriate [1] - The recent comments from U.S. officials, including former President Trump, have provided support for gold prices, with spot gold closing up 0.31% at 778.7 yuan per gram [1] Group 2 - According to Guangfa Futures, the market sentiment has weakened following trade agreements between multiple countries and the U.S., with tariff revenues potentially offsetting inflationary pressures, thus supporting dollar assets [3] - The deterioration of U.S. economic data in July has increased the likelihood of a rate cut by the Fed in September, while ongoing trade frictions continue to elevate market risk aversion [3] - The future influence of Fed officials' attitudes and U.S. inflation data on the market is expected to increase, leading to potential volatility [3] Group 3 - Technically, international gold prices are forming a triangle pattern, facing resistance at the previous high of $3450, indicating a need for stronger breakout drivers [4] - Despite macroeconomic news increasing gold price volatility, there remains potential for a price surge, suggesting a bullish strategy through low-cost call options during price pullbacks [4]

Group 1 - Global gold ETFs saw a net inflow of over $1 billion (approximately 15 tons) last week, with North American funds being the primary driver, while European and Asian funds experienced slight net outflows [1] - Asset management funds increased their long positions by 15,000 contracts, raising their net long position to 45.7% of total open interest, while reducing their net short positions to 11.5%, the lowest level since gold prices stabilized [1] Group 2 - On the domestic market, gold prices rose by 0.08%, closing at 777.72 yuan per gram [2] - Market sentiment has been affected by trade agreements between multiple countries and the U.S., leading to a potential support for dollar assets, while U.S. economic data deterioration has increased the likelihood of a Fed rate cut in September, heightening market risk aversion [4] - Technical analysis indicates that international gold prices are forming a triangle pattern, facing resistance at the previous high of $3,450, with expectations of potential upward movement if a stronger breakout occurs [4]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The analysis focuses on the U.S. economy and its stock market performance, particularly in relation to investor sentiment and economic growth expectations [1][2][3]. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Investor Sentiment**: Despite a significant adjustment in economic growth expectations following the non-farm payroll data, most investors remain optimistic about the U.S. stock market, particularly in AI stocks, with a low perceived risk of recession [1][2][11]. 2. **Economic Growth Concerns**: 60% of surveyed investors identified U.S. economic growth as their primary concern, marking the highest level of concern since September 2024 [2][8]. 3. **Recession Probability**: Over half of the investors believe the likelihood of a recession in the next 12 months is below 30%, a decrease from 57% in June who thought it was above 30% [2][20]. 4. **Market Performance Expectations**: Investors expect the U.S. stock market to outperform other major markets in August and the second half of 2025 [3][21]. 5. **AI Market Sentiment**: The enthusiasm for AI remains strong, with many investors wanting to hold positions in the "Magnificent 7" stocks, although the number of investors looking to increase their positions is at its lowest since January [3][15][17]. 6. **Hedging Strategies**: Popular hedging tools include S&P put options, cash, U.S. Treasuries, and gold call options, indicating a cautious approach among investors [3][22]. 7. **Currency Outlook**: Investors continue to hold a bearish outlook on the U.S. dollar, although extreme bearish sentiment has eased since April [3][19][22]. 8. **Credit Spread Expectations**: There is an expectation that credit spreads will widen, contrasting with previous expectations of narrowing spreads [3][12]. Additional Important Insights - The survey conducted from August 4 to 6 included 642 institutional investors, reflecting a broad range of opinions on market conditions [5]. - The overall risk sentiment has deteriorated compared to the previous month, influenced largely by the bleak outlook for U.S. economic growth [6][8]. - The anticipated number of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve for the remainder of the year is expected to be two, with a market pricing of 58 basis points and a general expectation of 75 basis points [12][20].