西非经济门户网1月7日报道，2025年第三季度科特迪瓦外贸实现跨越式增长，出口激增带动外贸呈 现近年来罕见的复苏态势。2025年7月至9月，科贸易总额同比增长28%，出口额为74.2亿美元，同比增 长51.4%，进口额为48.5亿美元，同比小幅增长3.5%，贸易顺差达到25.7亿美元，比去年同期的2.2亿美 元增长了十多倍。出口品类方面，橡胶和橡胶制品（11亿美元，+47.1%）、黄金等贵金属（11亿美 元，+28.2%）、腰果（6.5亿美元，+74.4%）、原油（6.1亿美元，+89%）是带动出口增长的主要驱动 力。出口目的地方面，科产品出口市场仍以欧洲和亚洲为主，瑞士和法国分别以9.8亿美元和9.4亿美元 的进口额位列科前两大采购国地位，其后分别是荷兰、马里、越南、马来西亚、中国、德国、美国和西 班牙，前十大采购国占科出口总额的66.5%。进口品类方面，石油产品（5亿美元，+21.4%）、通用机 械（+9.3%）和汽车（+28.5%）是主要进口产品，需要指出的是，原油进口大幅下降66%，金属制品进 口也呈下降趋势，是促进贸易平衡的重要因素。进口来源国方面，中国仍是科最大供应国，对科出口额 为9.4亿美元， ...

黄文涛自2010年加入中信建投证券，致力于于宏观经济研究领域。在近期，黄文涛提出了2026年全球宏 观十大投资机遇。 在接受湾财社《开局2026：在新周期起点上》专访时，黄文涛进一步强调了A股、港股"新四牛"的概 念，即"资金流入牛"、"科技创新牛"、"制度改革牛"和"消费升级牛"。他指出，这四头牛的力量将在 2026年继续推动市场走出稳中向上的曲线。 此外，在专访中，黄文涛指出，以黄金为代表，贵金属将在2026年继续保持强势格局，虽然期间的价格 波动不可避免，但整体增储和上涨态势将继续，直至新的全球贸易和国际货币体系重构企稳。 采写：南都·湾财社记者 吴鸿森 其中，中信建投证券党委委员、执行委员会委员武超则出任机构业务委员会主任，分管机构业务部、研 究发展部、托管部、国际业务部，负责中信建投证券机构业务和公司国际业务。此外，武超则还兼任中 信建投(国际)金融控股有限公司董事长。 早在2025年，武超则就实现了多次升职。2025年5月，武超则升任中信建投证券党委委员，20205年6 月，其再度升任执行委员会委员，在中信建投证券的影响力进一步提升。 作为中信建投证券最年轻的高级管理人员，武超则任职分析师期间，专 ...

固定收益 | 证券研究报告 — 周报 2025 年 12 月 21 日 相关研究报告 《如何看待美债长期利率触顶》20231122 《"平坦化"存款降息》20231217 《房贷利率仍是长期利率焦点》20240225 《新旧动能与利率定价》20240407 《特朗普交易：预期与预期之外》20241124 《低通胀惯性仍是主要矛盾》20250105 《如何看待美国通胀形势》20250119 《美国的赤字、储蓄率与利率》20250216 《美国经济：失速还是滞胀？》20250330 《美债成为贸易摩擦焦点》20250413 《贸易摩擦将迎关键数据》20250427 《中美股债再平衡》20250512 《美国 4 月零售、通胀数据平淡》20250518 《美国财政前景的变数》20250609 《财政、司法、货币、贸易纠缠中的关税摩擦》 20250701 《"大而美"法案加剧美国财政压力》20250707 《从通胀形势看美联储"换帅"可能性》20250720 《就业数据下修、降息可能提前——美国 6 月 PCE 和 7 月非农数据点评》20250804 《美国就业数据爆冷、财政变数增加》20250908 《"快降息" ...

Core Insights - The global asset allocation trend is shifting towards increasing allocation in RMB assets, driven by China's economic recovery and technological innovations like AI, with A-shares expected to continue rising and sectors like new energy and consumption showing investment value [1][2][4] Global Asset Allocation Trends - Two main themes have emerged in global asset allocation: the first is risk aversion, with gold prices rising significantly as central banks increase their gold holdings, indicating strong market demand for safe-haven assets [4] - The second theme is the "valuation gap effect" in risk assets, where funds are moving towards undervalued assets, particularly in the Asia-Pacific region, as the dollar's strength diminishes [4] - The increasing convertibility and liquidity of RMB assets are enhancing their appeal to international capital [4] A-Share Market Outlook - The A-share market has shown resilience, with the Shanghai Composite Index experiencing a maximum increase of over 20% this year, maintaining a volatile yet upward trend after surpassing the 4000-point mark [7] - The current 4000-point level in A-shares differs fundamentally from previous bull markets, with a shift from retail and leveraged funds to institutional capital driving the market [9] - A-shares are expected to have a 20%-30% upside potential, supported by improving valuation and earnings [11] Investment Focus Areas - Three key investment directions are identified: technology sector opportunities, new energy sector expected to lead in the cross-year market, and precious metals as safe-haven assets [11] - The energy sector, including both new and traditional energy, is seen as a core driver of technological development, with innovative pharmaceuticals also gaining attention [11] - There is a noted overheating in AI hardware, with a potential shift of funds towards software and application sectors, emphasizing the importance of application services [11] Cross-Year Market Expectations - The A-share market is poised for a cross-year rally, supported by stable trading volumes and the absence of earnings burdens during the reporting gap [12] - New energy is expected to be the leading sector in the upcoming cross-year market, with regional sectors benefiting from policy expectations also gaining traction [13] - The upcoming Central Economic Work Conference is anticipated to provide clear policy signals that could further energize the market [13]

Core Insights - The Shanghai Composite Index has surpassed 3800 points, reaching its highest level in over ten years, with investor sentiment shifting towards cautious optimism [1][15][20] - A survey of over 50,000 fund investors indicates a significant portion are adopting defensive strategies while maintaining a long-term optimistic outlook on the market [1][18][21] Investor Sentiment and Behavior - Approximately 49.7% of investors are opting to reduce their positions or lower risk, while 70% believe the market will continue to break through resistance levels [18][20] - The majority of investors (57.6%) have 1-5 years of investment experience, indicating a relatively inexperienced investor base [5][3] - Fund investments are the primary choice for 62.5% of respondents, highlighting a preference for mutual funds over other asset classes [8] Investment Strategies - A mix of investment strategies is evident, with 45.8% favoring swing trading and 39.9% opting for long-term holding [28] - The use of leverage is divided, with 35.2% of investors employing it, while 51.1% avoid it altogether, reflecting varied risk appetites [27] Sector Preferences - Over 50% of investors are optimistic about the technology sector, with significant interest also in consumer and financial sectors [25][26] - A notable 90.3% of investors plan to adjust their portfolio structures, with a strong inclination towards value stocks [26] Information Sources and Decision-Making - Investors primarily rely on financial media (62.0%) and social platforms (53.8%) for investment information, indicating a shift towards more accessible information sources [29] - Company financial reports and macroeconomic data are the most critical factors influencing investment decisions, with 53.6% and 40.7% of investors respectively prioritizing these [30] Trends in Fund Management - The preference for index funds and ETFs has risen, with 51% of investors favoring these over actively managed funds [33][34] - The influence of star fund managers is waning, with 55% of investors viewing their insights as merely reference points rather than definitive guidance [35][36] Investor Concerns and Suggestions - Economic downturns are the primary concern for 46.9% of investors, followed by liquidity tightening and policy shifts [24] - Investors express a desire for lower fees and improved transparency in fund management, reflecting a growing demand for better investment practices [38]

Core Insights - The Shanghai Composite Index has surpassed 3800 points, reaching its highest level in over ten years, with investor sentiment shifting towards cautious optimism [1][18] - A survey of over 50,000 fund investors indicates that funds remain the primary investment choice, with a significant portion of investors planning to adjust their portfolio towards value stocks [1][24] Investor Sentiment and Behavior - The majority of investors are categorized as "growth-oriented," with nearly 50% expressing optimism about the long-term market outlook despite current high volatility [1][3] - Approximately 70% of respondents believe the market will continue to break through resistance levels, driven by economic fundamentals and policy factors [1][18] Investment Strategies - A notable 45.8% of investors prefer "swing trading," while 39.9% favor "long-term holding," indicating a flexible approach to investment strategies [26] - The rise of index-based investments is evident, with 51% of investors favoring ETFs and index funds, reflecting a shift towards low-cost and transparent investment options [31][32] Portfolio Composition - Fund investments account for 62.5% of investor preferences, followed by stocks and bonds at 37% and 38.3% respectively, indicating a strong inclination towards fund-based strategies [6][10] - Over 70% of investors maintain a moderate exposure to equities, with 36.1% classified as "heavy" investors holding 60%-90% in equity assets [10][12] Risk Awareness - Investors exhibit a cautious approach, with 49.7% opting to reduce exposure or lower risk, while only 24.6% are willing to increase their positions [16] - The primary concerns among investors include economic downturns (46.9%), liquidity tightening (42.9%), and potential policy shifts (35%) [22] Sector Preferences - The technology sector is favored by over 50% of investors, followed by consumer and financial sectors, indicating a strong belief in innovation and growth potential [23][24] - A significant 90.3% of investors plan to adjust their portfolio structure, with a focus on value stocks to mitigate risks associated with market volatility [24] Information Sources and Decision-Making - Investors primarily rely on financial media (62%) and social platforms (53.8%) for investment information, highlighting a trend towards more accessible and interactive content [27] - Company financial reports (53.6%) and macroeconomic data (40.7%) are deemed the most critical factors influencing investment decisions, underscoring a data-driven approach [28] Fund Manager Selection - The experience and past performance of fund managers are the most critical criteria for investors, with 51.4% prioritizing these factors over other considerations [34][35] - The influence of "star fund managers" is diminishing, as investors increasingly focus on the underlying research and investment strategies rather than celebrity status [33]

Core Viewpoint - The survey indicates that fund investors are primarily optimistic about the long-term market outlook, despite current high volatility, with a significant portion opting for defensive strategies like reducing positions [2][21][23]. Investor Structure - The majority of respondents have 1 to 5 years of investment experience, making them "mid-term players," while 21.8% have over 5 years of experience [6]. - Fund investments are the most favored asset class, with 62.5% of investors choosing various types of funds, including active equity funds, ETFs, and bond funds [9]. Market Sentiment and Positioning - Over 70% of investors maintain a positive outlook on the market, believing the index can break through resistance levels [21][23]. - Nearly 60% of investors are currently holding positions that are underwater, indicating a cautious approach amid market fluctuations [16]. Investment Strategies - A significant 49.7% of investors are opting for defensive strategies, such as reducing positions, while 24.6% are looking to increase their holdings [21]. - The preferred investment strategies include "swing trading" (45.8%) and "long-term holding" (39.9%), reflecting a flexible approach to market conditions [34]. Sector Preferences - The technology sector is the most favored, with 50.1% of investors expressing interest, followed by consumer and financial sectors [30]. - A notable 90.3% of investors plan to adjust their portfolio structures, with a focus on value stocks [31]. Use of Leverage - There is a clear divide in the use of leverage among investors, with 35.2% using it, while 51.1% do not [33]. Information Sources - Investors primarily rely on financial media (62.0%) and social platforms (53.8%) for investment information, indicating a shift towards more interactive and accessible content [37][38]. Decision-Making Factors - Company financial reports (53.6%) and macroeconomic data (40.7%) are the most critical factors influencing investment decisions, highlighting a data-driven approach [40]. Index Fund Popularity - ETFs and index funds have become the preferred investment choice for 51% of investors, reflecting a growing trend towards low-cost and transparent investment options [45]. Fund Manager Influence - The influence of "star fund managers" is diminishing, with 55% of investors viewing their insights as reference points rather than absolute guides [47]. Selection Criteria for Funds - The experience and performance of fund managers are the most important criteria for investors when selecting funds, with 51.4% prioritizing these factors [49]. Investor Feedback on Industry - Investors express a desire for lower fees, better product offerings, and improved transparency in the fund industry, indicating a demand for long-term stability and growth [52].

Core Insights - NASA has discovered a unique celestial body named "Ling Shen Star" in the asteroid belt between Mars and Jupiter, valued at 700 trillion euros, approximately 553 trillion yuan, containing significant amounts of iron, nickel, and gold, earning it the nickname "Golden Planet" [1] Summary by Categories - **Discovery**: NASA identified "Ling Shen Star" in the asteroid belt, highlighting its unique characteristics and potential value [1] - **Valuation**: The celestial body is estimated to be worth 700 trillion euros, which translates to about 553 trillion yuan, indicating its immense economic significance [1] - **Composition**: The asteroid is reported to contain large quantities of precious metals, including iron, nickel, and gold, which could have implications for future mining and resource extraction [1]

Commodity Market Summary - Spot platinum (XPTUSD) is priced at 1253.460, down by 39.980, representing a decrease of 3.09% [2] - Spot palladium (XPDUSD) is priced at 1045.350, down by 10.750, reflecting a decline of 1.02% [2] - Gold (COMEX) (GC) is priced at 3436.000, up by 29.600, indicating an increase of 0.87% [2] - Silver (COMEX) (SI) is priced at 36.265, down by 0.145, showing a decrease of 0.40% [2] Foreign Exchange Summary - Euro to USD (EURUSD) is at 1.150, down by 0.67% [3] - GBP to USD (GBPUSD) is at 1.353, down by 0.57% [3] - USD to JPY (USDJPY) is at 144.357, up by 0.60% [3] - AUD to USD (AUDUSD) is at 0.647, down by 0.99% [3] - USD to CHF (USDCHF) is at 0.814, up by 0.47% [3] - NZD to USD (NZDUSD) is at 0.600, down by 1.16% [4] - GBP to JPY (GBPJPY) is at 195.371, up by 0.02% [4] Cryptocurrency Market Summary - Bitcoin (BTC) is priced at 104874.010, down by 811.190, reflecting a decrease of 0.77% [4] - Litecoin (LTC) is priced at 83.830, down by 2.310, indicating a decline of 2.68% [4] - Ethereum (ETH) is priced at 2532.590, down by 110.390, showing a decrease of 4.18% [4] - Ripple (XRP) is priced at 2.146, down by 0.044, reflecting a decline of 2.00% [4] Treasury Bonds Summary - The yield on the 2-year U.S. Treasury bond is at 3.933, up by 0.027, an increase of 0.69% [6] - The yield on the 5-year U.S. Treasury bond is at 3.986, up by 0.027, reflecting an increase of 0.68% [7] - The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond is at 4.374, up by 0.018, indicating an increase of 0.41% [7] - The yield on the 30-year U.S. Treasury bond is at 4.860, up by 0.017, reflecting an increase of 0.35% [7] - The yield on the 10-year UK Treasury bond is at 4.535, up by 0.058, an increase of 1.30% [7] - The yield on the 10-year German Treasury bond is at 2.496, up by 0.018, indicating an increase of 0.73% [7] - The yield on the 10-year French Treasury bond is at 3.219, up by 0.034, reflecting an increase of 1.07% [7] - The yield on the 10-year Italian Treasury bond is at 3.466, up by 0.045, indicating an increase of 1.32% [7] - The yield on the 10-year Japanese Treasury bond is at 1.419, down by 0.034, a decrease of 2.34% [7]