证 券 研 究 报 告 行业周报 台积电营收创历史新高，T-glass供不 应求 半导体行业周报 投资评级： （ ） 报告日期： 推荐 维持 2026年03月03日 台积电 2025 年营收突破 3.8 万亿新台币（约合人民币 8500 亿 +），创历史新高；2024-2025 年合计获 各国政府补助 1514.22 亿新台币，成为美、日、德、中四大经济体争相用补贴争取的企业，各国通过资金 投入换取芯片产能与供应链安全，为台积电全球建厂提供了重要资金支撑。此外，台积电在全球范围内加速 建厂进度，面对关税威胁与地缘博弈的双重夹击，台积电通过在在中国台湾、美国、日本、中国大陆以及德 国等地区布局产能，巧妙地开启了去风险化进程。对于台积电而言，3nm、2nm甚至未来的1.6nm制程， 已经不再是试验性的技术指标，而是全球科技巨头争相抢购的稀缺资源。 T-glass供不应求，成为制约人工智能硬件的关键因素 随着人工智能芯片封装和基板尺寸的增大，以适应更高的计算能力（采用更多HBM内存和芯片组），支撑 它们的集成电路基板也必须随之增大，但必须谨慎操作，避免翘曲陷阱，因此需要使用低热膨胀系数（CTE） 的玻璃纤维。英伟达 ...

Core Insights - TSMC (TSM.US) has been included in the 2026 Gelonghui "Global Vision" Top Ten Core Assets list, with its stock price rising by 3% to reach a historic high of $359.59, resulting in a market capitalization exceeding $1.85 trillion [1] Company Developments - TSMC has notified the Japanese government that it will upgrade the main production process of its second wafer fab under its Japanese subsidiary, JASM, from the originally planned 6nm to 3nm, marking the first domestic production capability for 3nm technology in Japan [1] - The total investment for this upgrade has increased to $17 billion [1] - The Japanese government is reportedly considering providing additional support for this new investment plan [1]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - AI computing demand is surging, with advanced processes solidifying growth foundations. TSMC's revenue is projected to exceed $33.7 billion in Q4 2025, driven by AI chip demand, with advanced process revenue share rising to 77% [6][7] - Strong profitability resilience is noted, with gross margin reaching 62.3% and net profit margin at 48.3% in Q4 2025, significantly exceeding guidance [10][11] - Global capacity layout and technology/resource allocation are strengthening long-term barriers, with TSMC's overseas capacity expansion and advanced packaging facilities progressing [6][12] - Investment recommendations focus on companies with competitive advantages in advanced manufacturing and those benefiting from domestic advanced packaging capacity [6] Summary by Sections TSMC Q4 2025 Performance - TSMC's Q4 2025 revenue reached NT$1.04609 trillion (approximately $33.7 billion), a year-on-year increase of 20.5% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 5.7%, driven by AI-related high-performance computing chip demand [7][10] - The advanced process (7nm and below) revenue share increased to 77%, with 3nm process contributing 28% of revenue, highlighting the importance of AI chip demand [12][14] Capital Expenditure and Future Outlook - TSMC raised its 2026 capital expenditure guidance to $52-56 billion, reflecting a nearly 40% increase from previous plans, focusing on advanced process capacity expansion and semiconductor equipment procurement [17][21] - The company aims for a long-term revenue compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 25%, with AI accelerator revenue CAGR adjusted upwards for 2024-2029 [21]

Core Viewpoint - The demand for chips is surging due to the AI wave, leading TSMC to face capacity constraints until 2027, prompting major clients like Apple and Nvidia to consider shifting some orders to Samsung and Intel [1][2]. Group 1: TSMC's Capacity and Capital Expenditure - TSMC is experiencing a "happy trouble" as its 3nm process capacity is extremely tight, with orders booked through 2026 and into 2027, necessitating a significant increase in capital expenditure plans [1]. - TSMC's capital expenditure guidance for 2026 is projected to be between $52 billion and $56 billion, exceeding Deutsche Bank's expectation of $50 billion and market consensus of $46 billion [1][3]. - The current situation reflects a severe shortage in core wafer manufacturing capacity, particularly for the 3nm process, rather than just CoWoS packaging capacity [1][3]. Group 2: Market Share and Client Dynamics - The supply-demand imbalance is causing a direct market spillover effect, with TSMC's market share in advanced process foundry expected to decline from 95% to 90% as clients seek alternative capacity [2]. - Major clients including Apple, Nvidia, AMD, Broadcom, Qualcomm, and MediaTek are left with no choice but to explore alternative suppliers due to the extreme capacity constraints [2][5]. Group 3: Client Shifts and Competitive Landscape - TSMC is delaying new 3nm development projects and encouraging clients to shift their product plans towards 2nm GAA processes for 2027/28 [5]. - Samsung's Taylor factory is likely to be the preferred alternative for clients seeking to diversify their supply sources, with Qualcomm and AMD being the most likely to consider Samsung [5]. - Apple and Broadcom are reportedly looking into Intel as an alternative, although Intel still has significant work to do despite its potential with the 14A process [5]. Group 4: Long-term Growth and Profitability - Despite short-term capacity challenges, the long-term growth potential driven by AI is highly certain, with TSMC raising its expected CAGR for AI-related growth from the mid-40s to the mid-to-high 50s for 2024-2029 [6]. - TSMC's long-term overall growth forecast has been adjusted to a 25% CAGR, with long-term gross margin targets raised to 56% [6][7]. - The focus remains on TSMC's core profitability, despite potential margin dilution from overseas expansion and challenges related to talent and infrastructure [6][7]. Group 5: Valuation Adjustments - Deutsche Bank has raised TSMC's target price by 10% to NT$2,200, reflecting a 20x P/E ratio based on expected EPS for 2027, consistent with industry peers [9]. - This valuation indicates TSMC's solid position and strong growth rate until 2028, although potential risks such as geopolitical tensions and competition from Intel are noted [9].

Core Viewpoint - TSMC is expected to significantly increase its capital expenditure to $52-56 billion in 2026, exceeding market expectations, which indicates an early start to the 2nm process mass production cycle [1][3]. Group 1: Financial Performance - In 2025, TSMC is projected to achieve record revenue of $122 billion, a year-on-year increase of 35.9%, driven by strong demand in AI and HPC, with a gross margin nearing 60% [2]. - The revenue contribution from advanced processes (7nm and below) is expected to reach 77%, with 3nm and 5nm processes contributing 63% of wafer sales [2]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to reach NT$1.72 trillion, marking a growth of over 30% year-on-year, setting a historical high [2]. Group 2: Capital Expenditure Insights - TSMC's capital expenditure for 2025 is set at $40.9 billion, with a more aggressive guidance for 2026 at $52-56 billion, with 70%-80% allocated to advanced processes and 10%-20% for advanced packaging, testing, and mask manufacturing [3]. - This increased investment reflects TSMC's strategic commitment to expanding production capacity in response to the growing demand for AI computing chips [3]. Group 3: Semiconductor Market Trends - The global semiconductor market is projected to grow from $680 billion in 2025 to $1.741 trillion by 2035, with a CAGR of 9.9%, driven by demand from servers, data centers, and storage [4]. - Advanced logic capacity (7nm and below) is expected to grow at a CAGR of approximately 15% from 2025 to 2035, fueled by AI demand [5]. Group 4: Domestic Market Dynamics - China's semiconductor demand accounts for about 35% of the global market, while its production capacity for 7nm and below is less than 5%, indicating a significant potential for capacity expansion [6]. - The domestic semiconductor industry is expected to fill the capacity gap, leading to a market for equipment investments worth hundreds of billions of dollars [6]. Group 5: Equipment Supply Chain and Localization - Domestic wafer fabs are actively building a "non-US" equipment supply chain, providing a growth window for local equipment manufacturers [7]. - The localization rate of semiconductor equipment is expected to increase from 30% to 60%-70% in the coming years, driven by the domestic production of DRAM and 3D NAND [7]. Group 6: Investment Recommendations - The dual drivers of AI demand and domestic substitution are expected to lead to sustained large-scale investments in advanced capacity in China [8]. - Focus is recommended on leading companies that have achieved technological breakthroughs in core equipment areas such as etching, deposition, cleaning, and CMP, which have validated their capabilities with major clients [8].

Core Insights - TSMC reported a consolidated revenue of approximately NT$1,460.9 billion for Q4 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 20.5% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 1.9% [1] - The net profit after tax for the same quarter was approximately NT$505.7 billion, with earnings per share of NT$19.5, both showing a year-on-year increase of 35.0% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 11.8% [1] - The gross margin was 62.3%, and the net profit margin was 48.3% [1] Revenue Breakdown - In Q4 2025, TSMC's revenue from advanced processes (including 7nm and more advanced processes) accounted for 77% of the total wafer sales revenue, with 3nm process shipments contributing 28%, 5nm contributing 35%, and 7nm contributing 14% [1] - High-performance computing (HPC) and smartphones accounted for 55% and 32% of revenue, respectively, while IoT, automotive, data communication equipment (DCE), and others contributed 5%, 5%, 1%, and 2% [2] Future Outlook - TSMC expects capital expenditures to rise to a record high of between $52 billion and $56 billion in 2026, following a total of $40.9 billion in capital expenditures for 2025 [2] - The company maintains over 90% market share in the AI chip market, which is expected to drive revenue growth [2] - According to Morgan Stanley, TSMC's revenue in 2026 is projected to grow by 30% year-on-year when measured in USD [3]

Core Insights - TSMC reported a consolidated revenue of approximately NT$335 billion for December 2025, reflecting a month-over-month decline of 2.5% but a year-over-year increase of 20.4%, marking a record high for the month [1] - The revenue for the entire year of 2025 is projected to be around NT$3.81 trillion, representing a year-over-year growth of 31.6%, setting a new historical record [1] - The strong performance is attributed to the booming demand in the artificial intelligence sector, which has significantly increased the demand for TSMC's products [1] Company Performance - TSMC's Q4 2025 revenue is estimated to reach NT$1.05 trillion, a year-over-year increase of approximately 20%, surpassing market expectations [1] - The revenue forecast provided in TSMC's October earnings call aligns closely with the actual figures, indicating a strong performance [1] - TSMC is set to release its complete Q4 earnings report on January 15, which will include updated guidance for the current quarter and the full year [1] Industry Outlook - TSMC maintains over 90% market share in the AI chip market, driving its revenue to new heights [2] - Projections indicate that TSMC's 2nm revenue may surpass the combined revenue of its 3nm and 5nm processes by Q3 2026, highlighting the rapid pace of technological transition [2] - J.P. Morgan forecasts a 30% year-over-year revenue growth for TSMC in 2026, while Aletheia predicts a 40%-50% growth rate in 2027, marking a significant year for capacity expansion [2] - Despite TSMC's advanced manufacturing capabilities, there are reports that Apple may consider using Intel's foundry services for some of its M-series chips, focusing on entry-level Mac models [2]

Group 1: Samsung Electronics - Samsung Electronics reported a record operating profit of 20 trillion KRW (approximately 96.5 billion RMB) for Q4 2025, marking a significant year-on-year increase of 208%, exceeding market expectations [2][4] - The company's Q4 sales rose by 23% year-on-year to 93 trillion KRW, continuing a trend of quarterly sales surpassing 80 trillion KRW for two consecutive quarters [2] - The surge in performance is attributed to supply constraints and increased demand driven by AI, leading to higher prices for traditional memory chips, with DRAM prices rising over 30% and NAND flash prices increasing by about 20% [2][3] Group 2: Market Trends and Predictions - Analysts predict that the price of DDR5 memory will continue to rise, with a forecasted increase of 40% in Q1 2026 and an additional 20% in Q2 2026 [2] - The shift towards AI-related chip production is causing a squeeze on traditional memory chip capacity, while demand for both traditional and high-end chips is surging due to AI model training and operation [3] - Samsung's advancements in high-bandwidth memory (HBM) are exceeding market expectations, with anticipated HBM4 shipments expected to double in 2026 [3][4] Group 3: TSMC Developments - TSMC is experiencing high demand for its 3nm process technology, which remains in short supply, leading to a temporary halt in new 3nm project launches [5][6] - TSMC's 2nm process is projected to achieve a wafer production capacity 1.5 times that of the 3nm process, with expectations to capture over 95% of the global AI accelerator market [6] - The company plans aggressive production targets, aiming for a monthly wafer capacity of 140,000 for the 2nm process by the end of 2026, driven by strong demand from AI data centers [6] Group 4: Financial Outlook - Morgan Stanley forecasts a 30% year-on-year revenue growth for TSMC in 2026, with continued growth of over 20% in 2027, primarily fueled by AI data center demand [6] - The compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for AI revenue in data centers has been revised upward from 53% to 57%, with expectations that AI business will account for over 40% of TSMC's total revenue by 2029 [6]

Market Overview - US stock index futures are all down, with Dow futures down 0.36%, S&P 500 futures down 0.20%, and Nasdaq futures down 0.28% [1] - European indices also show declines, with Germany's DAX down 0.20%, UK's FTSE 100 down 0.33%, France's CAC 40 down 0.27%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 down 0.40% [2][3] Oil Market - WTI crude oil increased by 1.43% to $56.79 per barrel, while Brent crude oil rose by 1.57% to $60.90 per barrel [3][4] Defense Sector - Trump's proposal to increase defense spending by $500 billion annually has led to a surge in the defense sector, with major companies like Northrop Grumman and Lockheed Martin seeing pre-market gains of over 8% [5] Labor Market - US labor market shows signs of recovery as layoffs drop to a 17-month low and hiring intentions increase, alleviating concerns about a sharp slowdown [6] - The data supports a "soft landing" narrative for the economy, indicating a combination of reduced layoffs and increased hiring intentions [6] Federal Reserve - Federal Reserve Vice Chair Bowman is reviewing the bank rating system and regulatory thresholds, aiming to adjust them in line with nominal GDP [6] Consumer Market - Goldman Sachs is betting on a "consumer bull market" in 2026, focusing on companies benefiting from increased middle-class spending, particularly in healthcare, materials, and essential consumer goods [6] AI Sector - Anthropic, an AI startup, is seeking to raise $10 billion at a valuation of $350 billion, with participation from Microsoft and Nvidia [7][8] Semiconductor Industry - Samsung Electronics reported a 208% increase in operating profit due to rising memory chip prices driven by AI demand, achieving a record high in revenue [9] - TSMC is experiencing high demand for its 3nm process, leading to increased prices and a temporary halt on new projects [9] Corporate News - AbbVie denied negotiations to acquire Revolution Medicines, causing a nearly 7% drop in Revolution's stock [10] - Equinor signed a contract worth approximately 99 billion USD to maintain oil and gas production levels in Norway, emphasizing its importance to European energy security [11] - HSBC agreed to pay around 3 billion euros to settle a tax scandal in France [11]

Core Insights - Deep Blue Automotive's chairman, Deng Chenghao, presented the strategic thinking and development path of the company during the media communication meeting following the pre-sale launch of the Deep Blue L06 [1] Technical Layout: Balancing Forward-Looking Investment and User Experience - The Deep Blue L06 features a magnetorheological suspension system, which offers faster response times compared to traditional CDC suspensions, enhancing driving experience and technical applicability [3] - The vehicle utilizes a 3nm process chip for its smart cockpit, reflecting the company's foresight regarding the increasing computational demands of intelligent cockpit functions and allowing for future feature iterations [3] Market Positioning: Differentiated Competition and User Demand Insights - Deep Blue's product positioning strategy focuses on the mainstream young user demographic, emphasizing technology and driving experience based on in-depth insights into user needs rather than targeting specific competitors [3] Diversified Strategy in Intelligent Driving - The company is developing its own DEEPAL AD system while also collaborating with partners like Huawei, allowing for flexible technology resource allocation based on product positioning and user groups [4] Globalization Strategy: Systematic Outbound and Scale Advantages - Deep Blue has established a presence in over 100 countries and regions, with localized production in Thailand, creating a comprehensive outbound model that integrates brand, product, manufacturing, and service [5] - The company aims for a balanced sales target of 50% domestic and 50% overseas by 2030, leveraging the supply chain and R&D resources of the Changan Group to maintain competitive cost control while ensuring product quality [5] - The platform-based and generalized development model, along with independent R&D capabilities, contribute to the company's cost advantages, allowing for more resources to be allocated to enhancing product performance and user experience [5] Systemic Capability: Outbound System and Scale Advantages - Deep Blue Automotive is committed to strengthening its systemic capabilities while balancing scale and efficiency, focusing on technological innovation and market expansion to provide value insights for the industry [6]