近日，晶圆代工龙头台积电公布2025年12月营收报告。公司当月合并营收约为3350.03亿元新台币，环 比下降2.5%，同比增长20.4%，创下单月同期新高。该业绩超出市场预期，原因是人工智能应用领域的 蓬勃发展带动了对公司产品的需求激增。 按最新月度数据推算，台积电去年第四季度的营收达1.05万亿新台币，同比增长约20%，超过伦敦证券 交易所集团(LSEG)基于20位分析师的预测值10359.13亿元新台币(327.2亿美元)，这与台积电在10月份的 财报电话会议上给出的322亿至334亿美元的业绩指引基本一致。 财报还显示，公司2025年1至12月营收约为3.81万亿元新台币，同比增长31.6%，再创历史新高。 台积电将于1月15日公布第四季度完整收益报告，其中包括对当前季度和全年的最新展望。 另一家机构Aletheia也持乐观看法，其认为2027年将成为台积电史上产能扩张最积极的一年，年增率预 计达到40%—50%，并预期该公司先进制程产能将在2028年前达成翻倍成长。 不过，摩根士丹利在最近一份报告中提示，尽管台积电拥有目前最先进的晶圆厂，苹果仍被传出正在考 虑于未来让英特尔代工服务(IFS)生产部分 ...

我是芯片超人花姐，入行20年，有50W+芯片行业粉丝。 有很多不方便公开发公众号的， 关于芯片买卖、关于资 源链接等， 我会分享在朋友圈 。 扫码加我本人微信 据《EE Times》调查的分析师表示，随着台积电（TSMC）近期正式推出 2nm 制程，未来多年 内，台积电将在先进制程节点上持续领先三星和英特尔。 2025年 12 月下旬，台积电宣布其 2nm 制程（公司内部称为 N2）正式进入量产阶段 。N2 是 台积电首次采用纳米片晶体管技术，也就是所谓的GAA（全环绕栅极），这一技术的导入时间晚 于竞争对手三星。台积电表示，N2 在性能和功耗方面实现了"完整节点级"的提升，并通过开发低 电阻重布线层（RDL） 以及超高性能 MIM（金属–绝缘体–金属）电容，进一步增强 2nm 节点 的整体性能。 台积电强调，其 2nm 技术将在晶体管密度和能效方面引领整个芯片行业。 台积电在一份声明中表示："通过持续演进的技术策略，N2 及其衍生 工艺 将把台积电的技术领 先优势进一步延伸到未来多年。" 01 "冠军"地位 分析师普遍认为，台积电将继续保持其在先进制程节点上的"冠军"地位。公司最先进的制程技术 仍将主要留在 ...

Group 1 - Alibaba's Taobao Flash Sale aims for market share growth with significant investment planned for 2026, focusing on high-value customers and non-food retail [4][5] - In Q4 2025, Taobao Flash Sale showed strong growth in GMV share and average order value, indicating a positive market position [4] - The strategy has sparked discussions among users, reminiscent of the competitive pricing seen during the "takeout war" in early 2025 [5] Group 2 - Former Xiaomi executive Wang Teng announced the establishment of a new company, "Today Yixiu," focusing on sleep health products, with a team primarily from Xiaomi and Huawei [7][9] - The company aims to address growing concerns about sleep and energy management, leveraging advancements in AI technology [7][9] Group 3 - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce is reviewing Meta's acquisition of AI platform Manus, assessing compliance with local laws regarding technology exports and cross-border mergers [11] - The acquisition, valued at $2 billion, is under scrutiny to ensure it does not violate export control regulations [11] Group 4 - Vanke's CEO Yu Liang has submitted his resignation due to retirement, marking the end of a significant era for the company [12][13] - Yu has been a pivotal figure in Vanke's history, leading the company through various phases of growth and challenges [13] Group 5 - XuanYuan Technology showcased its AI hardware at CES 2026, emphasizing the integration of AI agents with physical devices, with products priced at $22 [15][16] - The company aims to create personalized AI experiences while maintaining safety and precision in applications [15][16] Group 6 - JD.com has established a new "Chameleon Business Department" to develop AI toys for all age groups, with plans to launch new products in mid-January [18][19] - The company has made significant advancements in AI model technology, improving efficiency and reducing training costs [18][19] Group 7 - NIO plans to expand its international presence by entering the Australian and New Zealand markets in the second half of 2026, following its launch in Thailand [39][40] - The company aims to leverage its new "Firefly" brand for better market penetration in right-hand drive regions [39][40] Group 8 - Zhihui Technology, known as the "first stock of global large models," successfully listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, achieving a market capitalization of approximately 57 billion HKD [29][30] - The company reported a significant increase in annual recurring revenue, indicating strong growth potential in its cloud-based services [31] Group 9 - Tesla plans to build a 2nm chip factory, challenging industry standards for cleanroom environments in semiconductor manufacturing [44][45] - CEO Elon Musk's ambitious vision includes producing advanced chips while maintaining a casual work environment [44][45] Group 10 - OpenAI has established a $50 billion employee stock incentive pool, reflecting its commitment to attracting and retaining top talent in the competitive AI landscape [51][52] - The company has seen rapid valuation growth, indicating strong market confidence in its future prospects [51][52]

Group 1: Samsung Electronics - Samsung Electronics reported a record operating profit of 20 trillion KRW (approximately 96.5 billion RMB) for Q4 2025, marking a significant year-on-year increase of 208%, exceeding market expectations [2][4] - The company's Q4 sales rose by 23% year-on-year to 93 trillion KRW, continuing a trend of quarterly sales surpassing 80 trillion KRW for two consecutive quarters [2] - The surge in performance is attributed to supply constraints and increased demand driven by AI, leading to higher prices for traditional memory chips, with DRAM prices rising over 30% and NAND flash prices increasing by about 20% [2][3] Group 2: Market Trends and Predictions - Analysts predict that the price of DDR5 memory will continue to rise, with a forecasted increase of 40% in Q1 2026 and an additional 20% in Q2 2026 [2] - The shift towards AI-related chip production is causing a squeeze on traditional memory chip capacity, while demand for both traditional and high-end chips is surging due to AI model training and operation [3] - Samsung's advancements in high-bandwidth memory (HBM) are exceeding market expectations, with anticipated HBM4 shipments expected to double in 2026 [3][4] Group 3: TSMC Developments - TSMC is experiencing high demand for its 3nm process technology, which remains in short supply, leading to a temporary halt in new 3nm project launches [5][6] - TSMC's 2nm process is projected to achieve a wafer production capacity 1.5 times that of the 3nm process, with expectations to capture over 95% of the global AI accelerator market [6] - The company plans aggressive production targets, aiming for a monthly wafer capacity of 140,000 for the 2nm process by the end of 2026, driven by strong demand from AI data centers [6] Group 4: Financial Outlook - Morgan Stanley forecasts a 30% year-on-year revenue growth for TSMC in 2026, with continued growth of over 20% in 2027, primarily fueled by AI data center demand [6] - The compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for AI revenue in data centers has been revised upward from 53% to 57%, with expectations that AI business will account for over 40% of TSMC's total revenue by 2029 [6]

特朗普拟年增5000亿国防开支，国防板块盘前大涨。2026年初，由于全球地缘政治局势高度紧张以及美国政府大幅扩张 军备的计划，全球国防板块迎来集体飙升，成为市场关注的焦点。尽管特朗普签署行政令限制国防承包商进行股票回 购、发放分红并将高管年薪封顶在500万美元，试图迫使企业将资金转向产能扩张和技术研发，但其周三提出的每年增 加5000亿美元国防预算的宏伟计划彻底引爆了市场。此前有报道称，特朗普要求美国在2027年将年度国防开支增加50% 以上，达到1.5万亿美元。这一利好消息推动诺斯罗普·格鲁曼(NOC.US)、洛克希德·马丁(LMT.US)等美股巨头在周四盘 前大涨超过8%，成功收复前一日跌幅。 1. 1月8日(周四)美股盘前，美股三大股指期货齐跌。截至发稿，道指期货跌0.36%，标普500指数期货跌0.20%，纳指期 货跌0.28%。 | ■ US 30 | 48,817.90 | 49,031.40 | 48,783.80 | -178.30 | -0.36% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 트 US 500 | 6,907.40 | 6,927.20 ...

据报道，马斯克声称特斯拉拟建的 TeraFab 超级工厂将具备生产 2nm 制程芯片的能力。更为颠覆的 是，马斯克对芯片制造行业的"洁净室"（Cleanroom）标准发起了挑战，并立下赌约称："特斯拉将拥有 2nm 工厂，而我甚至可以在里面一边吃汉堡、一边抽雪茄。" 在现代晶圆厂里，洁净室是芯片生产设施不可或缺的一部分，因为它们负责控制可能影响芯片良率 的污染颗粒。 像台积电这样的公司每年投入数十亿美元，在芯片生产设施内打造受控环境，例如集成HEPA/ULPA 过滤设备，并确保所有操作人员都穿着全身防护服。 针对如何防止汉堡油脂和烟尘污染硅片的问题，马斯克给出了他的解决方案"晶圆隔离"（wafer isolation）。他主张将保护重点从整个房间缩小到晶圆本身，确保晶圆在所有加工环节中始终处于 密封隔离状态。 理论上，如果晶圆与外部环境完全物理隔绝，车间本身的洁净度要求确实可以降低。马斯克试图用 这一逻辑证明，维持庞大且昂贵的 ISO 级洁净室不仅效率低下，而且并非必要。 这位亿万富翁曾经提议特斯拉建立自己的芯片制造网络，并满足公司的定制芯片需求，随后，特斯 拉与三星就AI5和AI6芯片展开了广泛的合作。而现 ...

IT之家 1 月 8 日消息，科技媒体 Tom's Hardware 今天（1 月 8 日）发布博文，报道称本周接受《Moonshots》采访时，特斯拉首席执行官埃隆・马斯克 （Elon Musk）语出惊人，扬言要建一座能"抽雪茄、吃汉堡"的 2nm 芯片厂。 马斯克声称特斯拉拟建的 TeraFab 超级工厂将具备生产 2nm 制程芯片的能力。更为颠覆的是，马斯克对芯片制造行业的"洁净室"（Cleanroom）标准发起了 挑战，并立下赌约称："特斯拉将拥有 2nm 工厂，而我甚至可以在里面一边吃汉堡、一边抽雪茄。" IT之家注：洁净室是芯片制造的"产房"，通过特殊过滤系统严格控制空气中的灰尘、微生物和悬浮颗粒，因为芯片线路极微小，一粒灰尘落下都可能像陨石 撞地球一样导致芯片报废。 针对如何防止汉堡油脂和烟尘污染硅片的问题，马斯克给出了他的解决方案"晶圆隔离"（wafer isolation）。他主张将保护重点从整个房间缩小到晶圆本身， 确保晶圆在所有加工环节中始终处于密封隔离状态。 理论上，如果晶圆与外部环境完全物理隔绝，车间本身的洁净度要求确实可以降低。马斯克试图用这一逻辑证明，维持庞大且昂贵的 ISO 级 ...

早盘提示 Morning session notice 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 1 月 5 日 星期一 联系方式：yujunli@greendh.com | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 【行情复盘】 部分资金在节前最后一个交易日避险退场，引发两市部分指数调整，航天板块再次 | | | | | 大涨。两市成交额 2.04 万亿元，温和缩量。中证 500 指数收 7465 点，涨 6 点，涨 | | | | 幅 | 0.09%；中证 1000 指数收 7595 点，跌 2 点，跌幅-0.02%；沪深 300 指数收 4629 | | | | | 点，跌 21 点，跌幅-0.46%；上证 50 指数收 3031 点，跌 5 点，跌幅-0.18%。行业 | | | | | 与主题 ETF 中涨幅居前的是卫星 ETF、通用航空 ETF、文娱传媒 ETF、高端装备 ETF、 | | | | | 军工龙头 ETF，跌幅居前的是双创 ETF、储能电池 ET ...

Group 1 - TSMC's 2nm production plan is progressing as scheduled, with plans to build three new factories to meet strong market demand. The risk trial production for TSMC's 1.4nm process is expected to start in 2027 [2] - Black Sesame Technology announced a strategic acquisition of Yizhi Electronics, which will result in Black Sesame holding 60% of Yizhi's shares. The core team of Yizhi has committed to achieving a cumulative revenue of no less than 1.2 billion yuan and a net profit of no less than 90 million yuan over the next three years [3] - Jin Feng Technology's subsidiary, Jianghan Asset, holds a 4.14% stake in Blue Arrow Aerospace, making it the sixth-largest shareholder as the company prepares for its IPO [4] Group 2 - The EAST nuclear fusion experiment in China has confirmed the existence of a density-free zone in the Tokamak, with results published in the journal "Science Advances" [5][6] - Data analysis indicates that micro-vacations at hot springs and ice and snow tourism will dominate consumer spending during the New Year holiday, with an 8% increase in visitor numbers to hot spring resorts compared to last year [7] - SAIC Audi announced a retail target of 47,258 units for the year 2025, representing a 23% year-on-year increase [8] Group 3 - TrendForce has downgraded the global laptop shipment forecast for 2026 to a 5.4% year-on-year decline, reflecting conservative attitudes among brands due to rising costs [9] - Samsung Electronics reported positive feedback from customers regarding the competitiveness of its HBM4 chips, with market shares of 35% for Samsung, 53% for SK Hynix, and 11% for Micron as of Q3 2025 [10] - The Robotex World Robot Competition Asian Finals has commenced in Shanghai, focusing on sustainable development goals and providing an international platform for youth technology talent [11] Group 4 - The U.S. apartment market is experiencing its worst performance in over a decade, with a 1.9% year-on-year decline in apartment prices, the largest drop since 2012 [12] - The cryptocurrency market faced significant turmoil, with Bitcoin dropping nearly 30% from its peak two months ago, leading to over 106,000 liquidations and a total liquidation amount of $121 million [14]

从最新一份全球晶圆代工市场数据来看，台积电在产业中的位置已经不仅仅是"领先者"，而更像是 整个代工体系的核心支点。市场研究机构的统计显示，2025 年第三季度，全球前十大晶圆代工商 合计营收达到 450.86 亿美元，较上一季度环比增长 8.1%。在整体需求回暖、各家厂商营收普遍 回 升 的背景 下 ， 台 积 电 依 旧 拿 走了其中最重要的一部分：当季 营 收 330.63 亿 美 元 ， 环 比 增 长 9.3%，市场份额进一步提升至 71%。 这一数字本身已经说明问题。超过 70% 的市场份额，意味着台积电一家所覆盖的产能规模、客户 结构和技术层级，已经远远超过其他所有竞争对手的总和。无论从先进制程的推进速度、头部客户 的集中度，还是资本开支的持续强度来看，台积电在当前代工市场中的优势都呈现出明显的"放大 效应"。市场整体在增长，但增长最直接、最充分地体现在台积电身上。 与之形成对比的是，其他晶圆代工厂商虽然同样实现了营收增长，却在份额上难以缩小差距。三星 电子仍位居第二，但三季度营收仅为 31.84 亿美元，市场份额下降至 6.8%；中芯国际、联华电 子、格罗方德等厂商分列其后，更多是在各自擅长的工 ...