Market Performance - The three major US stock indices experienced slight declines, with the Dow Jones down 0.63% at 44,371.51 points, the S&P 500 down 0.33% at 6,259.75 points, and the Nasdaq down 0.22% at 20,585.53 points [1] - Major tech stocks mostly rose, with Google up over 1%, Amazon up more than 1%, Tesla up over 1%, Nvidia up 0.5%, and Microsoft up 0.37%. However, Apple fell 0.59% and Facebook dropped over 1% [1] - Chinese concept stocks showed mixed results, with Century Internet up over 14%, Hesai Technology up more than 8%, NIO up over 5%, and iQIYI up over 5%. Conversely, Linklogis fell over 16%, BrainCo dropped more than 10%, Beike fell over 4%, and Bawang Tea dropped over 3% [1] - European stock indices closed lower across the board, with Germany's DAX down 0.82% at 24,255.31 points, France's CAC40 down 0.92% at 7,829.29 points, and the UK's FTSE 100 down 0.38% at 8,941.12 points [1] Commodity Prices - International precious metal futures generally rose, with COMEX gold futures up 1.34% at $3,370.30 per ounce and COMEX silver futures up 4.74% at $39.08 per ounce [1] - International oil prices surged, with the main US oil contract up 3.27% at $68.75 per barrel and Brent crude oil up 2.9% at $70.63 per barrel [1] Currency and Bond Markets - The US dollar index rose 0.29% to 97.87, while the offshore RMB closed at 7.1736 against the US dollar [1] - US Treasury yields increased across the board, with the 2-year yield up 1.5 basis points at 3.885%, the 3-year yield up 1.66 basis points at 3.853%, the 5-year yield up 3.68 basis points at 3.969%, the 10-year yield up 6.15 basis points at 4.409%, and the 30-year yield up 7.76 basis points at 4.946% [1] - European bond yields also rose collectively, with the UK 10-year yield up 2.6 basis points at 4.620%, France's 10-year yield up 1.5 basis points at 3.410%, Germany's 10-year yield up 1.9 basis points at 2.721%, Italy's 10-year yield up 1.2 basis points at 3.568%, and Spain's 10-year yield up 1.2 basis points at 3.328% [1]

美国商品期货交易委员会（CFTC）：截至7月8日当周，COMEX黄金投机者将净多头头寸减少了1,855 份合约，至134,842份合约。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's June meeting minutes reveal significant divisions among policymakers regarding future interest rate paths, with most members suggesting a potential for rate cuts this year, while external pressures, including Trump's calls for lower rates, add to market uncertainty [1][2][5]. Summary by Relevant Sections Monetary Policy Outlook - The minutes indicate a split among Federal Reserve officials on the impact of Trump's tariffs on inflation, with a majority believing that tariffs have raised business costs and could lead to higher consumer prices, adjusting the core PCE inflation median to 3.1% [2][3]. - A minority of officials argue that tariff impacts are one-time adjustments, suggesting limited inflationary pressure and advocating for early rate cuts to mitigate economic downturn risks [2][3]. Market Reactions - Following the release of the minutes, market optimism regarding a shift in Fed policy diminished, with the probability of a September rate cut dropping from 85% to 65%, and expectations for two rate cuts by year-end remaining dominant but with a reduced single cut magnitude from 50 basis points to 25 basis points [3][5]. Key Variables Influencing Future Policy - Future policy decisions will hinge on four main variables: the evolution of tariff policies, confirmation of inflation stickiness through CPI data, resilience in the labor market, and global risk preferences influenced by geopolitical events and energy price fluctuations [4][5]. External Influences - Trump's renewed criticism of the Fed's interest rate policies, claiming they are excessively high, and his consideration of appointing a "shadow chairman" to exert pressure on the Fed, highlight the political dynamics affecting monetary policy [6]. Gold Market Dynamics - The international precious metals market, particularly gold, is experiencing fluctuations influenced by trade negotiation uncertainties, a strong dollar, and cautious Fed policies, with current market conditions favoring gold prices due to ongoing global economic uncertainties and heightened demand for safe-haven assets [7].

7月11日，国内贵金属期货全线飘红，截止目前，沪金主力报价为774.32元/克，涨幅0.41%，沪银主力 报价为9113元/千克，涨幅2.57%；国际贵金属期也全线飘红，COMEX黄金报价3346.60美元/盎司，涨幅 0.41%，COMEX白银报价38.20美元/盎司，涨幅1.55%。 今日贵金属期货价格行情（2025年7月11日） | 品种名称 | 开盘价 | 最高价 | 最低价 | 单位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪金主力 | 773.30 | 775.88 | 770.46 | 元/克 | | 沪银主力 | 8955.00 | 9118.00 | 8922.00 | 元/千克 | | COMEX黄金 | 3333.10 | 3355.00 | 3332.30 | 美元/盎司 | | COMEX白银 | 38.21 | 38.26 | 37.51 | 美元/盎司 | 【消息面】 以色列国防部长表示如果伊朗威胁以色列，以色列将再次对伊朗采取打击行动。 【盘面分析】 7月10日，COMEX黄金价格上涨0.36%至3333.00美元/盎司，沪金主连上涨0.07%至 ...

贵金属日报 2025-07-11 贵金属 钟俊轩 贵金属研究员 从业资格号：F03112694 交易咨询号：Z0022090 电话：0755-23375141 邮箱： zhongjunxuan@wkqh.cn 沪金涨 0.07 %，报 771.70 元/克，沪银涨 1.45 %，报 9014.00 元/千克；COMEX 金涨 0.27 %， 报 3334.70 美元/盎司，COMEX 银涨 1.27 %，报 37.78 美元/盎司； 美国 10 年期国债收益率 报 4.35%，美元指数报 97.55 ； 市场展望： 昨夜以及今日凌晨多位美联储官员针对货币政策路径进行表态，联储内部对于降息存在的观点 差异明显，其受到特朗普政府的显著影响。 昨夜，圣路易斯联储主席穆萨莱姆认为关税对于通胀的影响将会在今年年底或明年年初显现， 同时他表示美国劳动力市场接近充分就业，经济形势良好，美元贬值则有可能进一步推高通胀， 穆萨莱姆总体发言偏鹰派。 旧金山联储主席戴利则认为关税水平并非预期般高企，同时她并未看到关税对于价格持续影响 的证据，戴利表示今年联储可能存在两次降息，且将在秋季进行。下一任美联储主席的潜在候 选人沃勒则表态 ...

湖北日报讯（记者王艳华）7月9日，现货黄金（伦敦金）跌至一周多来的最低点3282美元/盎司。7月10日，国际金价迎来上涨。截至下午5点，现货黄金来 到3329美元/盎司左右，较昨日上涨0.49%；COMEX黄金来到3334.9美元/盎司左右，较昨日上涨0.42%。 对于黄金未来走势，有机构认为，中长期来看黄金价格逻辑依然坚挺。从各国央行的黄金储备来看，根据6月17日世界黄金协会发布的调查数据显示，高达 95%的受访央行认为，未来12个月内全球央行将继续增持黄金。而我国央行连续8个月增持黄金，6月末黄金储备为7390万盎司（约2298.55吨），环比增加7 万盎司（约2.18吨），2025年5月末为7383万盎司。避险、投资以及价值储备是全球央行持续购买黄金的核心驱动力。 年初以来猛涨的黄金，进入5月后，受国际经济、地缘政治、美元指数和美国财政赤字等因素影响，国际金价走出了一条跌宕起伏的曲线。从现货黄金今年 的走势来看，今年1月现货黄金价格在2600美元/盎司左右，在4月下旬一度冲高到3500美元/盎司，进入5月后长期在3300美元/盎司徘徊。 | 3313.020 开盘 3329.200 | | 昨结 | | ...

近期黄金市场呈现 "急跌急涨" 的震荡格局，为投资者提供了丰富的交易机会。据中金在线 6 月 28 日报道，现货黄金最低触及 3215.78 美元 / 盎 司，日内跌幅达 3.33%，COMEX 黄金期货同步下探 3219.2 美元 / 盎司。这种波动背后是多重因素的博弈：中美贸易谈判进展削弱避险需求、美 联储鹰派立场强化压制金价，叠加地缘风险阶段性降温，共同构成短期回调压力。但值得注意的是，全球央行一季度净购金 244 吨，中国连续 8 个月增持黄金储备，显示中长期支撑依然稳固。 当前黄金市场正经历 "预期差" 修复过程。美联储 5 月议息会议释放 "通胀仍需观察" 信号，6 月降息概率降至 65%，美元指数企稳 100.3，这直接 导致黄金作为抗通胀工具的吸引力短期弱化。然而从更宏观的视角看，美国债务规模突破 36 万亿美元引发的美元信用弱化趋势未改，黄金的 "货 币对冲" 属性反而在强化。正如每日经济新闻 7 月 2 日分析指出，黄金价格已从传统的 "实际利率锚定" 转向 "美元信用对冲" 逻辑，这为回调后的 布局提供了战略支撑。 对于普通投资者而言，震荡行情犹如驾驶帆船穿越风暴：既要精准捕捉 3250 ...

关注、加星，第一时间接收推送！ 文 | 赵伟、陈达飞、赵宇 联系人 | 赵宇 摘要 美国三大股指集体上涨，美债利率快速回升。 当周，标普500上涨1.6%，道琼斯工业指数上涨2.3%；10Y 美债收益率上行6.0bp至4.4%；美元指数下跌0.3%至96.99，离岸人民币升值至7.1701；WTI原油上涨1.5% 至66.5美元/桶，COMEX黄金上涨1.9%至3332.5美元/盎司。 关税豁免即将到期，警惕关税升级风险。 7月9日，美国进口商品的90天"关税暂停"即将到期。贝森特6月 27日接受采访时表示，约20个谈判进展缓慢的国家将可能被恢复4月2日的初始对等关税税率，只有被认 定"诚意协商"的伙伴才有望继续获得关税豁免延长。 美国6月非农数据强于市场预期，联储7月降息概率下降。 美国6月非农新增就业14.7万人，失业率回落至 4.1%，主要驱动力为州及地方政府就业增加。市场对联储7月降息预期降温，9月降息为基准假设。鲍威 尔在欧洲央行辛特拉论坛上发言，表示关税对通胀效果或在夏天显现。 风险提示 地缘政治冲突升级；美国经济放缓超预期；美联储超预期转"鹰" 报告正文 一、 大类资产&海外事件&数据： （一） ...

周三（7月9日）纽约尾盘，现货黄金涨0.38%，报3314.30美元/盎司。COMEX黄金期货涨0.18%，报 3322.80美元/盎司。 中航期货认为，展望下半年，在美国关税威胁、赤字扩张削弱美元资产吸引力，海外降息周期和全球央 行延续购金的背景下，黄金价格中枢上移。下半年美联储降息预期增强，黄金有望延续利率逻辑再度冲 高。预计三季度在美联储降息预期增强的博弈中，ETF 等资金有望继续助力黄金价格上行，COMEX黄 金价格区间3200-3500美元，前高3500美元处仍有较大压力。 从资金净流入方面来看，黄金ETF基金近4天获得连续资金净流入，最高单日获得8770.45万元净流入， 合计"吸金"1.85亿元，日均净流入达4623.91万元。 数据显示，杠杆资金持续布局中。黄金ETF基金连续4天获杠杆资金净买入，最高单日获得2574.96万元 净买入，最新融资余额达36.71亿元。 截至2025年7月10日 10:19，黄金ETF基金(159937)上涨0.70%，最新价报7.36元。拉长时间看，截至2025 年7月9日，黄金ETF基金近3月累计上涨4.61%。 流动性方面，黄金ETF基金盘中换手0.57%， ...

Core Viewpoint - The precious metals market experienced mixed movements, with gold prices increasing while silver prices declined on July 9th in New York trading [1] Gold Market Summary - Spot gold rose by 0.38%, reaching $3314.30 per ounce, with a trading range of $3282.87 to $3316.90 during the day [1] - COMEX gold futures increased by 0.18%, closing at $3322.80 per ounce [1] Silver Market Summary - Spot silver fell by 1%, settling at $36.399 per ounce, with a trading range of $36.271 to $36.79 [1] - COMEX silver futures decreased by 0.37%, ending at $36.612 per ounce [1]