Group 1 - The domestic futures market for non-ferrous metals showed a strong performance, with silver futures experiencing a price increase of approximately 1.90% [1] - The main contract for silver opened at 8784.00 yuan/kg, reaching a high of 8964.00 yuan and a low of 8781.00 yuan during the trading session [1] - Analysts suggest that the unexpected negative ADP employment data has raised concerns about the economy and increased the likelihood of quicker interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which supports precious metal prices [1][2] Group 2 - The market is closely monitoring upcoming U.S. non-farm payroll data, as discrepancies between this data and ADP figures could shift market expectations [2] - Current market sentiment indicates a 27% expectation for a rate cut in July, influenced by the recent ADP data [2] - Analysts caution that while silver prices are trending upwards, the strength of this trend should be approached with caution, pending further economic data [2]

证 券 研 究 报 告 恒生科技涨幅靠前，但资金仍未系统性增配 www.swsresearch.com 证券研究报告 2 ◼ 2025年2月，伴随着DeepSeek影响的持续发酵，内外资对于中国科技资产情绪转乐观。1）权益层面，阿里巴巴公布Q4业绩超预期， 同时宣布的大规模AI投资进一步推升投资者预期。本月恒生科技美元计价上涨11%，远远强于其他指数。2）利率层面，美联储月初保持 现有利率水平，符合市场预期，但是会议纪要显示各委员态度偏鹰，但美国经济中PMI数据下滑，10Y美债收益率本月下降30BPs。3） 商品层面，俄乌战争局势影响美欧天然气价格，本月美气上涨明显，美国债务问题愈发突出，贵金属涨幅明显，Comex黄金上涨6%。 ◼ 全球资金流向来看，近一个月以来（截止2025年3月5日），全球货币市场资金和发达市场股市获得资金流入，新兴市场股市资金流出。 国别和地区上，美国的权益和固收基金资金流入超过其他市场，发达市场资金流入超过新兴市场。 ◼ 全球资金配置中国市场方面，截止2025年2月27日，2月全球权益基金资金流出中国市场的规模为174.1亿美元，1月为流入34.4亿美元， 由流入转为流出。1）从流入 ...