Greater China Semiconductors | Asia Pacific Morgan Stanley Taiwan Limited+ NOR Flash – Price hike is coming July 31, 2025 10:42 AM GMT What's new? Some Greater China niche memory vendors have both DDR4 DRAM and NOR Flash exposure (e.g. GigaDevice, Winbond). Along with our bullish view on the DDR4 upcycle (link), investors are asking whether or not there could be a pricing hike on NOR Flash. We expect a price hike starting from 3Q: Our expectation is that NOR Flash pricing has troughed, with possibility of a ...

Economic Policy and Market Outlook - The Central Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China decided to hold the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee, focusing on the economic situation and planning for the second half of 2025[2] - The meeting emphasized the need for macro policies to continue to exert force and adapt as necessary, with a focus on unleashing domestic demand and preventing risks in key sectors[2] - The meeting's outcomes are expected to enhance the certainty of future economic development, aligning with market expectations[2] U.S. Federal Reserve and Interest Rates - The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% to 4.5%, marking the fifth consecutive meeting without a change[3] - There is an increasing internal division within the Fed, with two members opposing the rate decision, suggesting a potential for future rate cuts if economic slowdown continues[3] - The Fed's future rate decisions will depend on inflation trends, with indications that the impact of tariffs on prices may take longer than anticipated[3] Commodity and Industry Updates - The China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association plans to strictly control new capacities in copper smelting and alumina, addressing over-investment in certain sectors[4] - U.S. President Trump announced a 50% tariff on imported semi-finished copper products starting August 1, leading to a significant drop in copper prices, with New York copper futures falling over 18%[4] - Major memory manufacturers are exiting niche DRAM markets, which may lead to price increases for DDR4 DRAM in 2025 and 2026 due to supply-demand reversals[5] Market Performance Indicators - The latest 10-year government bond yield is at 1.727%, with a change of -1.41 basis points[6] - The USDCNH exchange rate is at 7.2123, reflecting a 0.44% increase, while the U.S. dollar index stands at 99.97, up by 1.06%[8] - The A-share market's trading volume over the past six months is reported at 1.871 trillion yuan, with a turnover rate of 4.11%[17] Industry Trends - The top three performing sectors are steel, petroleum and petrochemicals, and media, indicating strong sectoral performance[22] - The net capital inflow for the top three sectors on a given day includes media, food and beverage, and social services, suggesting investor interest in these areas[24]

Group 1 - The Deep Research product "Jieyue Shenyan" has launched an invitation for testing, capable of completing complex research tasks in about 10 minutes, achieving a 70% pass rate in evaluations [1] - Microsoft has introduced a new Copilot mode in its Edge browser, which actively assists users by predicting their next actions and organizing information flow [1] - The MiniMax large model successfully passed the Turing test during a debate, with over 30% of the audience unable to distinguish between the AI and a human [2] Group 2 - Standard Chartered Group has signed a strategic cooperation memorandum with Alibaba Group to leverage Alibaba Cloud's AI technology for enhancing financial services [2] - A seminar on the performance standards framework for large model integrated machines is scheduled for August 1, aiming to establish unified evaluation benchmarks for the industry [3] - Major Chinese airlines, including Air China, China Southern Airlines, and China Eastern Airlines, support ticket purchases through the "Civil Aviation Version 12306" direct sales platform to ensure passenger rights [4] Group 3 - Apple announced the closure of its first direct store in China, located in Dalian, due to multiple retailers leaving the shopping center, while planning to open a new store in Shenzhen [5] - A shooting incident in New York resulted in the death of Blackstone executive Wesley LePatner, highlighting security concerns in corporate environments [6][8] - Xiaomi Group ranked 297th in the 2025 Fortune Global 500, marking a significant increase of 100 places from the previous year, with total revenue reaching 365.9 billion yuan [9] Group 4 - China Mobile is offering a month-long free Beidou satellite messaging service for users in Beijing to ensure communication during emergencies [10][11] - The establishment of China Chang'an Automobile Group in Chongqing marks the formation of a new central enterprise in the automotive sector, joining other major state-owned automotive groups [12] - The price increase effect of DDR4 DRAM is expected to last until the end of 2025, driven by strong demand and supply constraints [13]

Macro News - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has significantly raised China's economic growth forecast for this year by 0.8 percentage points to 4.8%, reflecting stronger-than-expected economic activity in the first half of the year and lower actual tariff rates compared to previous predictions [4] - In the first half of the year, state-owned enterprises in China reported total operating revenue of 4,074.96 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.2%. Their total profit amounted to 218.25 billion yuan, down 3.1% year-on-year, and tax payments were 300.26 billion yuan, a decline of 0.8% [4] Industry News - Hong Kong's "Stablecoin Regulation" will come into effect on August 1, with the Hong Kong Monetary Authority releasing five regulatory documents for licensed stablecoin issuers [7] - The China Photovoltaic Industry Association issued a statement refuting claims made by some media regarding "anti-involution" in the photovoltaic industry, particularly concerning polysilicon, stating that the reports were severely inconsistent with actual conditions [7] Company News - WuXi AppTec announced an adjustment to its share repurchase price ceiling to no more than 114.15 yuan per share [11] - The PCB industry is experiencing a significant improvement in market conditions compared to the same period last year, especially for high-end products, with strong demand and rising prices [9] - Changchun High-tech announced that its innovative drug, Amlodipine Besylate Oral Solution, has received approval from the FDA for market launch in the United States [12]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Hold" rating for Micron Technology (MU US) with a target price of US$107.00, indicating a potential downside of 12% from the current price of US$122.24 [1][19][20]. Core Insights - The report highlights that Micron's revenue and net profit for the second half of FY25 are expected to meet market expectations, but there are concerns that the revenue and net profit forecasts for FY2026-27 are overly optimistic [6][10][19]. - The report notes that the recent price increases in DRAM products, particularly DDR4 and DDR5, are driven by limited supply and strategic production cuts by major players like Micron and Samsung [7][11][19]. - The report emphasizes that while Micron's HBM revenue exceeded expectations, the predictability of new orders is declining, and there has been a decrease in contract prices for traditional DRAM and NAND products [8][20]. Summary by Sections Investment Rating and Price Target - The investment rating is "Hold" with a target price of US$107.00, up from a previous target of US$84.00, reflecting a 27% increase in the target price [2][19]. Earnings Forecast Adjustments - The report adjusts the earnings per share (EPS) estimates for FY2025 to US$7.14 (up 11%), FY2026 to US$10.42 (up 31%), and FY2027 to US$6.29 (up 12%) [2][10]. Revenue and Profitability Outlook - Revenue for FY2025 is projected at US$36,766 million, with a growth rate of 46%, while FY2026 revenue is expected to reach US$49,992 million, reflecting a growth rate of 36% [10][19]. - The report indicates that the market's expectations for Micron's revenue and net profit in FY2026-27 are too high, with projected net profits lower than market consensus by 10.1-48.2% [10][12][20]. Market Comparison and Price Trends - The report compares Micron's revenue forecasts with market predictions, noting a slight positive deviation for FY2025 but a negative deviation for FY2026 [5][18]. - The report highlights significant price increases in DRAM products, particularly due to supply constraints and production cuts by major manufacturers [7][11]. Valuation Methodology - The report employs a sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) valuation approach, assigning a P/E multiple of 10x for the DRAM segment and 5x for the NAND segment, leading to a total valuation of US$116.83 billion [19][21].

Core Viewpoint - The DDR4 memory market is experiencing a significant price surge due to major manufacturers exiting the DDR4 market, leading to a buying frenzy among OEM/ODM companies to secure DDR4 supplies. The current prices have exceeded those of DDR5, marking a notable shift in the market dynamics [1][2]. Price Surge - DDR4 spot prices have seen a dramatic increase, with daily price hikes nearing 8%, a level not observed in the past decade. The latest prices for DDR4 8Gb and 16Gb modules have surged significantly, with 8Gb modules reaching an average price of $3.775 and 16Gb modules at $8.2 [2][3]. Historical Price Comparison - Since June, the price of DDR4 8Gb modules has risen from an average of $2.73 to $3.775, marking a 38.27% increase in just half a month. Over the current quarter, prices have increased by approximately 132% from $1.63 [3][4]. Profitability Outlook - Current DDR4 prices are approaching levels seen in the first quarter of 2022, where companies like Nanya Technology and Winbond reported substantial profits, with gross margins of 43.9% and 48.6%, respectively [5][6]. Supply Constraints - Major manufacturers are gradually ceasing DDR4 production, leading to limited supply. This has resulted in a rush to purchase DDR4, particularly for industrial control applications where redesigning is challenging. Nanya Technology and Winbond are positioned to benefit from this price surge, with Nanya's DDR3 and DDR4 products accounting for over 80% of its revenue [7][8]. Future Prospects - Nanya Technology's DDR4 products have received positive feedback from several module manufacturers, and there is an expectation of increased shipments, which could help reduce inventory and potentially turn losses into profits by the fourth quarter [8][9].

Core Viewpoint - The DRAM market is undergoing significant changes, highlighted by a rapid increase in DDR4 prices and shifts in market dynamics among major players like Micron, Samsung, and SK Hynix [1][5]. Group 1: Micron's Developments - Micron has announced the discontinuation of DDR4 production, leading to a dramatic price surge in DDR4 DRAM, with prices increasing over 100% this season [1]. - The company has introduced its 1γ (1-gamma) DDR5 technology, which boasts a 15% increase in data transfer speed compared to its predecessor and a 20% reduction in power consumption, crucial for AI and data center applications [2]. - Micron plans to invest $200 billion in expanding advanced DRAM manufacturing and R&D in the U.S., which is expected to significantly impact the future DRAM landscape [5]. Group 2: Samsung's Challenges - Samsung has faced difficulties with HBM certification, with reports indicating multiple failures in obtaining HBM3E certification, which is critical for its product offerings [7][9]. - Despite these challenges, Samsung has successfully delivered HBM3E chips to AMD, marking a significant step in its HBM product line [8]. - The company is also planning to expand its 1c DRAM production line, which is essential for its HBM4 technology, indicating a commitment to overcoming current production hurdles [9][10]. Group 3: SK Hynix's Strategy - SK Hynix has emerged as a leader in the DRAM market, capturing a 36% market share, surpassing Samsung's 34% [11]. - The company is taking a cautious approach to expanding its DRAM and HBM production capacity, delaying equipment investments and scaling back production expectations [12][13]. - SK Hynix is also focusing on future technology roadmaps, including the development of 4F² and 3D DRAM technologies to enhance performance and capacity [14]. Group 4: Future of DRAM Technology - The future of DRAM technology is promising, with advancements expected in 3D DRAM architectures and the transition to smaller nodes, including 0c/0d by 2033-2034 [19]. - Major manufacturers are exploring various architectural paths to achieve 3D DRAM integration, indicating a competitive landscape driven by innovation [19]. - The introduction of HBM4 and HBM5 is anticipated to significantly increase memory bandwidth and data transfer rates, with HBM4 expected to reach 2 TB/s by 2026 [21].

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in DDR4 DRAM prices is attributed to a decrease in supply and significant purchases by mysterious buyers, leading to a price increase of nearly 8% in a single day, which is unprecedented in the last decade [2][3]. Summary by Sections Price Surge - The latest prices for 8Gb and 16Gb DDR4 DRAM have seen a daily increase of nearly 8%, with specific price points reaching $3.775 for 8Gb (1G×8) 3200 and $8.2 for 16Gb (1G×16) 3200 [2]. - The current market conditions have led to DDR4 prices exceeding those of DDR5, indicating a price inversion, which is unusual [3]. Market Dynamics - Major manufacturers like Samsung and Micron are focusing on higher-end DRAM markets such as DDR5 and HBM, which has resulted in a reduction of DDR4 supply [2][3]. - The current price increase is significant enough to surpass the breakeven point for DRAM manufacturers, leading to substantial profits [3].

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in DDR4 DRAM spot prices, with increases of nearly 8% in a single day, indicates a significant market shift, driven by supply constraints and increased demand from OEM/ODM manufacturers [1][2]. Price Trends - DDR4 8Gb (1G×8) 3200 spot price rose from an average of $2.73 on May 30 to $3.775, marking a 38.27% increase in just half a month [2]. - Since March 31, the price has skyrocketed from $1.63 to nearly 1.32 times its original value [2]. - DDR4 16Gb (1G×16) 3200 spot price increased from $6.1 to $8.2, reflecting a 34.42% rise in June alone and over 1.07 times since March 31 [2]. Market Dynamics - Major manufacturers like Samsung and Micron are shifting focus to DDR5 and high-bandwidth memory (HBM), leading to a reduction in DDR4 supply, which is contributing to the price surge [1][2]. - The current DDR4 prices have surpassed those of higher-spec DDR5, indicating a rare price inversion [1]. Company Performance - Nanya Technology and Winbond, key suppliers of DDR4, are expected to benefit from the rising prices, with Nanya's revenue heavily reliant on DDR3 and DDR4 [3]. - Nanya is reportedly increasing its investment in DDR4 production capacity, breaking industry norms to capitalize on the growing market opportunity [3]. - Memory IC design firms like Etron Technology and Gigabyte are also beginning to receive customer orders, suggesting a positive outlook for their operations [3].

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in DDR4 DRAM spot prices, with increases of nearly 8% in a single day, indicates a significant market shift, driven by supply constraints and increased demand from OEM/ODM manufacturers [1][4]. Price Trends - DDR4 8Gb (1G×8) 3200 spot price rose from an average of $2.73 on May 30 to $3.775, marking a 38.27% increase in just half a month [2]. - Since March 31, the DDR4 8Gb price has skyrocketed from $1.63 to nearly $3.775, representing an increase of approximately 132% [3]. - The DDR4 16Gb (1G×16) 3200 spot price increased from $6.1 on May 30 to $8.2, a rise of 34.42% in June alone, and over 107% since March 31 [3]. Market Dynamics - The current DDR4 spot prices have reached levels comparable to Q1 2022, where major suppliers like Nanya Technology and Winbond reported substantial profits [4]. - With major manufacturers like Samsung and Micron halting DDR4 supply, concerns over future supply shortages have led to aggressive purchasing behavior in the market [4]. - Nanya Technology is reportedly expanding its DDR4 production capacity, indicating a recognition of the significant market opportunity for DDR4 [5]. Supplier Insights - Nanya Technology and Winbond are positioned to benefit from the rising DDR4 prices, with DDR3 and DDR4 accounting for over 80% of Nanya's revenue [5]. - Memory IC design firms like Etron Technology and Gigabyte Technology are also beginning to receive customer orders, suggesting a positive outlook for their operations amid the DDR4 price surge [5].