力积电（6770）今日举行法说会，经营阶段公布去年第4季财报中，也正式道出出售铜锣厂原因：设备 折旧包袱沉重。 售厂给美光后，换来后毛利提升及纳入美光后段高频宽记忆体（HBM）合作名单。 力积电今日法说会由总经理朱宪国主持并公布去年第4季财报。力积电去年第4季营收受惠DRAM平均销 售单价上扬及美元升值，达到125亿元，毛利率顺利转正为6%，但扣除铜锣厂，则为17%，这也说明铜 锣厂产能利用率低及增列折旧摊提 ，是拖累营运的元凶。力积电去年单季仍亏损6.5亿元，但前去年第3 季亏损27.3亿元，亏损明显收敛。 逻辑代工部分则因将铜锣厂售予美光后压缩总产能，自1月起调涨12吋代工价格；8吋厂部分AI伺服器 与边缘运算带动功率元件需求如MOSFET客户需求不减反增，二月起产能已无法完全满足客户需求。再 加上公司考虑将部份竹南厂8吋无尘室改装为12吋先进封装机台所用，8吋总产能可能因此限缩而导致产 能吃紧，公司8吋晶圆代工价格计划自3月起开始调升。未来GaN及矽电容会是另一波成长动能。 至于法人关注出售铜锣厂给美光后，公司将秉持不裁员、不中断营运的目标的原则，陆续转回新竹厂 区。美光已预付HBM后段晶圆制造（PWF ...

证券研究报告 | 策略定期报告 2026 年 02 月 04 日 1 月制造业 PMI 环比下降，煤炭价格上涨 ——行业景气观察（0204） 本周景气度改善的方向主要在消费服务和信息技术领域。上游资源品中，煤炭、 石油价格上涨；中游制造领域，新能源产业链价格多数下跌，1 月重卡销量三个 月滚动同比增幅收窄。信息技术中，DDR4 价格边际下行，12 月北美 PCB 订单 量三个月滚动同比增幅扩大。消费服务领域，鸡肉价格、飞天茅台批价上行。春 节临近生产季节性放缓，年末冲刺透支部分需求，拖累 1 月制造业 PMI 环比下 行。推荐景气较高或有改善的煤炭、石油石化、中药、白酒、电力、半导体等。 ❑【本周关注】春节临近生产季节性放缓，去年年末冲刺透支了部分需求，拖累 1 月 制造业 PMI 环比下行，寒潮拖累施工进度，建筑业景气明显下滑，服务业也有放 缓。结构上特征主要有：1）春节临近生产季节性放缓，叠加原材料价格上涨，采 购量明显下滑，或因去年年末冲刺影响，需求偏弱，生产经营预期下行，库存升至 同期较高水平；2）地缘政治风险推升油价和贵金属价格，抬高成本，叠加反内卷 背景下部分行业供给受限，购进价格和出厂价格指数均 ...

Market Overview - The major indices showed mixed performance with the Shanghai Composite Index up by 0.29%, Shenzhen Component up by 0.09%, while the ChiNext Index fell by 0.70% [1] - The TMT sector led the gains, particularly in communication cables and components (+2.50%) and gaming (+1.18%), while the portal websites sector saw a significant decline of -5.41% [1] Domestic News - The semiconductor industry is projected to grow, with the National Bureau of Statistics indicating a 22.8% increase in storage chip production and a 12.6% increase in server production driven by AI advancements [2] - CINNO reported that Qizhong Technology plans to invest 50 million yuan in HeXin Integrated, acquiring a 2.27% stake, enhancing its technology layout in wafer-level packaging and chip testing [2] - Counterpoint Consulting forecasts a 1.6% year-on-year decline in China's smartphone shipments for Q4 2025, with Apple leading the market with a 22% share due to strong iPhone 17 sales [2] - MicroLED Display's Sichuan project has successfully topped out, with a total investment of 1 billion yuan, aiming for an annual output value exceeding 1 billion yuan upon full production [2] Overseas News - SEAJ revised its forecast for Japan's semiconductor equipment sales for the 2026 fiscal year to 5.5 trillion yen, reflecting a 12.0% year-on-year increase due to expanded DRAM investments and anticipated growth in AI server chip investments [3] - Rubin NVL72 system adopts a 100% liquid cooling design, significantly improving cooling efficiency compared to previous models [3] - Micron confirmed plans to phase out DDR4 production for PCs and data centers over the next three quarters [3] AI Insights - Research indicates that by December 2025, South Korean consumers are expected to spend 80.3 billion won (approximately 430 million yuan) on AI services, with ChatGPT capturing 71.5% of the market [4] - MIT's new paper introduces RLM, allowing for processing of millions of tokens without altering model architecture [4] - Elon Musk's xAI has launched the world's first 1 GW supercomputer cluster, significantly enhancing AI model training efficiency [4] Industry Tracking - China's commercial aerospace sector successfully launched 19 low-orbit satellites using the Long March 12 rocket [5] - A portable brain-machine interface developed by Fudan University for stroke rehabilitation integrates EEG monitoring with theta pulse stimulation technology [5] - The first domestic rapid analysis instrument for nanocrystal structures has been released, matching international standards [5] - Dongyi Technology has completed a significant financing round to accelerate the development of humanoid robots and core joint modules [5] Earnings Forecast - Hao Shang Hao expects a net profit of 65 million to 83 million yuan for 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 115.64% to 175.35% [6] - Chengdu Huamei anticipates a net profit of 213 million to 255 million yuan for 2025, with a growth rate of 74.35% to 108.73% [6] - Anfu Technology projects a net profit of 216 million to 254 million yuan for 2025, reflecting a growth of 28.55% to 50.91% [6] - Ding Tong Technology expects a revenue of 1.593 billion yuan for 2025, with a net profit growth of 119.59% [6]

三星电子联席首席执行官兼芯片业务负责人全永铉在新年讲话中指出，HBM4凭借差异化技术优势已获 得客户高度认可，并强调"三星回来了"，展现出公司在高端存储领域重拾领先地位的决心。 资本市场亦对此作出积极反应。进入2026年后，三星电子股价在前两个交易日连续大幅上涨，涨幅分别 达到7.17%和7.47%，推动韩国主要股指盘中创下历史新高，反映出投资者对公司前景的强烈看好。 三星电子联席首席执行官近日表示，当前内存芯片短缺状况达到历史罕见程度，形势极为严峻，由此带 来的内存价格大幅上涨将不可避免地传导至终端产品，影响智能手机等设备的定价。市场研究数据显 示，过去一年间，传统DDR4 DRAM的基准价格较此前水平上涨近七倍，创下自2016年有记录以来的最 高涨幅；同期NAND闪存价格也实现翻倍以上增长。 三星电子联席首席执行官近日表示，当前内存芯片短缺状况达到历史罕见程度，形势极为严峻，由此带 来的内存价格大幅上涨将不可避免地传导至终端产品，影响智能手机等设备的定价。市场研究数据显 示，过去一年间，传统DDR4 DRAM的基准价格较此前水平上涨近七倍，创下自2016年有记录以来的最 高涨幅；同期NAND闪存价格也实现 ...

国芯网[原:中国半导体论坛] 振兴国产半导体产业！ 由于芯片制造商三星和SK的业绩推动韩国综合股价指数创下历史新高，花旗集团和摩根士丹利等券商纷纷上调了这两家公司的盈利预期。 据市场追踪机构称，过去一年中，传统DDR4 DRAM的基准价格飙升了近700%——这是自 2016 年开始追踪价格以来的最高水平；同时，NAND 闪存的价 格也大幅上涨，同期涨幅超过100%。 有分析师指出，得益于内存芯片价格的历史性飙升以及用于人工智能的高带宽内存（HDM）的复苏， 三星电子即将创下有史以来最强劲的季度营业利 润。 该公司预计将于本周晚些时候公布初步第四季度业绩报告，市场普遍预期其季度营业利润将达到约19万亿韩元（约合140亿美元），几乎是上一季度的三 倍。还有一些分析师预测，这一数字可能首次超过20万亿韩元，达到这一里程碑主要得益于其半导体部门。 不拘中国、 放眼世界 ！ 关注 世界半导体论坛 ↓ ↓ ↓ 1月5日消息，据外媒报道， 三星和SK海力士寻求将服务器DRAM价格最高上涨70%！ 今日，三星股价大涨近7.5%创历史新高，SK海力士同步走强涨近3%，两大存储巨头的强势表现直接提振了市场情绪，推动韩国首尔综指收 ...

Currency - The offshore RMB to USD exchange rate has surpassed the 7.0 mark, indicating a significant appreciation trend throughout the year [1] - Huatai Securities notes that the recent appreciation of the RMB could weaken the price competitiveness of export-oriented manufacturing while benefiting industries reliant on imported raw materials by lowering costs [1] - The appreciation is attributed to a robust domestic economic foundation, a weakening USD, and capital inflows [1] Lithium Industry - Tianqi Lithium announced that starting January 1, 2026, all product spot trading settlement prices will no longer reference SMM prices but will be based on Shanghai Steel Union's battery-grade lithium carbonate and hydroxide prices or the Guangzhou Futures Exchange's main contract prices [2] - The price range for battery-grade lithium carbonate on December 25 was reported between 97,800 to 112,000 CNY per ton, with futures closing at 123,520 CNY per ton [2] - In 2026, the lithium market is expected to shift from a loose supply-demand balance to a scenario of increasing supply and demand, with a projected global lithium resource supply exceeding 2 million tons, a 25% year-on-year increase [2] Consumer Sector - The Ministry of Commerce is implementing actions to boost consumption, including organizing various promotional activities to meet the festive consumption needs of urban and rural residents [3] - The focus is on enhancing service consumption, with a notable emphasis on optimizing policies to stimulate demand in the service sector [3] - The central economic work conference highlighted the importance of domestic demand and plans to expand the supply of quality goods and services [3] Robotics - Beijing Yizhuang will host a humanoid robot half marathon on April 19, 2026, featuring a "human-robot co-running" format [4] - The event aims to showcase the capabilities of humanoid robots and promote their application beyond experimental stages [5] - The robotics sector is experiencing significant advancements, with Tesla's Optimus V3 set to begin mass production in 2026, and several domestic robotics companies preparing for IPOs [5] Storage Industry - According to TrendForce, prices for DDR4 and DDR5 memory modules continue to rise, although the rate of increase has slowed [6] - Kingston has significantly raised DRAM prices, and the NAND flash market is showing bullish sentiment due to expectations of rising contract prices [6] - The supply of DDR4 DRAM is expected to remain tight, with ongoing production halts by major manufacturers contributing to price increases [6] Magnetic Levitation - A team from the National University of Defense Technology achieved a world record by accelerating a test vehicle to 700 km/h in two seconds during magnetic levitation experiments [7] - This breakthrough addresses key technological challenges and positions China as a leader in ultra-high-speed magnetic levitation technology [7] E-cigarette Industry - The National Tobacco Monopoly Administration is seeking opinions on a draft policy aimed at balancing supply and demand in the e-cigarette market [8] - The market is transitioning from chaotic growth to regulated restructuring, with expectations of significant market size growth from 4.2 billion CNY in 2023 to 96.66 billion CNY by 2025 [8]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant price increase of DDR4 DRAM due to supply chain adjustments by major manufacturers, particularly Samsung Electronics, which is delaying the phase-out of DDR4 production to maximize profits and meet rising demand, especially in server applications [1][3]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - DDR4 16Gb spot prices have surged to $60, driven by supply constraints and increased demand from specific customers [1]. - Samsung is expected to slow down the planned discontinuation of DDR4 production, with a focus on securing long-term supply contracts under Non-Cancellable, Non-Returnable (NCNR) terms [1][2]. - The shift in Samsung's strategy indicates a prioritization of profit maximization in its memory business, as it aims to reclaim its position as an industry leader [1][3]. Group 2: Contractual Implications - NCNR contracts are being discussed with customers, allowing them to lock in prices and quantities, thus protecting against future market fluctuations [2]. - While customers face potential penalties for breach of contract, the stability offered by NCNR agreements is appealing amid rising prices [2][3]. Group 3: Production Adjustments - Samsung plans to transition production capacity from DDR4 to DDR5 and HBM-related products, but the current demand for DDR4 has led to a temporary retention of its production [3]. - The company is expected to maintain DDR4 production at least until the end of 2026 for specific applications, such as automotive and in-house brands [3][4]. - Other memory manufacturers are also struggling to meet DDR4 demand, leading to continued price increases and supply shortages [4]. Group 4: Industry Collaborations - Micron is actively seeking to expand its DRAM production capacity through partnerships and facility rentals, indicating a high level of collaboration within the industry to address capacity constraints [5].

Core Insights - The article discusses the ongoing memory shortage in the DRAM market, driven by increased capital expenditures from major cloud service providers and rising demand for artificial intelligence applications [2][5]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Major cloud service providers are increasing their capital expenditures, with Amazon raising its budget from $118 billion to $125 billion, and further increases expected in 2026 [5]. - Samsung Electronics has paused DDR5 DRAM contract pricing, leading to a ripple effect among other manufacturers, which is expected to delay contract price announcements until mid-November [2][3]. - The DRAM spot prices have surged, with DDR5 prices more than doubling since late September, resulting in a 102% increase from $7.68 to $15.5 per 16Gb chip [4]. Group 2: Price Trends - Predictions indicate that DDR5 prices will experience a "triple increase" from Q4 2025 to H1 2026, with quarterly increases expected between 30% and 50%, potentially reaching nearly $30 per 16Gb chip by early 2026 [4][6]. - DDR4 prices are also rising, with DDR4 16Gb module prices surpassing $25, and specific models reaching $27 due to limited supply [4]. Group 3: Supply Chain Implications - The memory market is shifting towards a seller's market, with significant price increases across various memory types, including a 60% monthly increase for mainstream DDR4 8Gb modules and a 40% increase for DDR3 4Gb modules [5]. - The supply chain is experiencing structural capacity shifts as suppliers prioritize high-margin products like DDR5 and high-bandwidth memory (HBM), exacerbating the supply shortage [6].

Group 1 - The Shanghai Stock Exchange Sci-Tech Innovation Board semiconductor materials and equipment theme index decreased by 2.63% as of October 10, 2025, with mixed performance among constituent stocks [1] - Huahai Chengke led the gains with an increase of 3.81%, while SMIC experienced the largest decline at 6.95% [1] - The Sci-Tech Semiconductor ETF (588170) fell by 2.82%, with a latest price of 1.52 yuan, and recorded a turnover rate of 19.03% with a transaction volume of 524 million yuan, indicating active market trading [1] Group 2 - A new wave of shortages in the storage industry is intensifying, with DDR4 DRAM prices rising over 12% and DDR5 16Gb prices increasing by 8.5% in the past week [2] - Major storage module manufacturers like Adata and Team Group have decided to suspend pricing to wait for clearer price trends after the holiday [2] - The packaging and testing industry in China is rapidly developing, with advanced packaging becoming a key path for performance enhancement driven by emerging applications like AI and HPC [2] Group 3 - The Sci-Tech Semiconductor ETF (588170) and its linked funds track the semiconductor materials and equipment theme index, focusing on semiconductor equipment (59%) and materials (25%) [3] - The semiconductor equipment and materials industry is a significant area for domestic substitution, benefiting from the expansion of semiconductor demand driven by the AI revolution and technological advancements [3]

Market Performance - As of October 9, 2025, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.32% to close at 3933.97 points, the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 1.47% to 13725.56 points, and the ChiNext Index gained 0.73% to 3261.82 points [1] - The overnight performance of U.S. markets showed the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 0.52%, the Nasdaq Composite decreased by 0.08%, and the S&P 500 dropped by 0.28% [1] - The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index increased by 3.40%, while individual semiconductor stocks like NXP Semiconductors, Micron Technology, and ARM saw declines of 1.87%, 2.14%, and 2.33% respectively [1] Industry Insights - Intel announced key details about its upcoming Panther Lake notebook processor, which will be the company's first chip manufactured using the next-generation 18A process technology, aiming to restore its leadership in chip manufacturing [2] - The Panther Lake processor will integrate multiple components, including graphics and central processing units, on a single circuit and is expected to begin ramping up production this year, with initial shipments by the end of 2025 and full market availability starting January 2026 [2] - A new wave of shortages in the storage industry is intensifying, with DDR4 DRAM prices rising over 12% and DDR5 16Gb prices increasing by 8.5% in the past week, prompting several manufacturers to pause pricing until post-holiday market conditions become clearer [2] - Companies like Adata, Team Group, and Apacer have observed strong price increases and have decided to halt pricing for DDR4 and DDR5 products, while NAND Flash and SSD products continue to be quoted [2] Company Actions - Shengmei Shanghai announced that its actual controller and chairman, Hui Wang, along with other executives, plan to reduce their holdings in the company by up to 0.04%, 0.03%, 0.02%, 0.03%, and 0.02% respectively, with the reduction period set from November 3, 2025, to February 2, 2026 [3] - Guosen Securities highlighted the significant investment intentions between OpenAI and NVIDIA, indicating a robust demand for AI infrastructure driven by the evolution of large models, which in turn boosts the demand for computing power [3] - The semiconductor materials ETF and its associated funds focus on semiconductor equipment (59%) and materials (25%), benefiting from the ongoing AI revolution and the need for domestic substitution in the semiconductor sector [3][4]