作者 | 深蓝学院 来源 | 深蓝AI 原文链接： 特斯拉为什么现在不选择VLA? 点击下方 卡片 ，关注" 自动驾驶之心 "公众号 戳我-> 领取 自动驾驶近30个 方向 学习 路线 >>自动驾驶前沿信息获取 → 自动驾驶之心知识星球 本文只做学术分享，如有侵权，联系删文 通往罗马道路千万条，但极简、极短的就那么一条 」 这次ICCV tesla分享了最新FSD技术，从技术架构看其实还是个大号端到端。VLA现在在机器人领域这么火，代表前沿、代表潮流，为什么tesla不选择 VLA架构?FSD架构是不是已经落后了呢? VLA源于早期google机器人使用VLM做为Backbone控制机器人操作，相当于是在VLM基础上增加了Action，缩写为VLA，这也形成了当今机器人领域 的主流技术。 对比机器人和自动驾驶 1. 任务目标 :机器人可以定义为可以完成人类任意指令的机器，自动驾驶则是其中完成起点到终点任务的汽车。产品定义上不同则决定机器人不可能像 自动驾驶端到端类似技术方案，它最重要的是要理解人类的语言指令并完成指令目标，对于通用的指令没有比Language更好的表征方式了。但自动驾 驶不同，其指令目标就是导 ...

周二，特斯拉股价先抑后扬。当日该股一度下探至405.95美元，最终收于419.40美元，微涨0.4%。标普 500指数和道指分别涨0.9%和1.4%。考虑到周一特斯拉股价曾大涨6.2%，周二涨幅相对温和。对自动驾 驶前景的乐观情绪对其股价有所支撑。Melius Research分析师Rob Wertheimer指出，特斯拉的FSD技术 正快速迭代，进一步拉大与传统汽车制造商的差距。"过去十年，甚至一两年前，我们还假设其他车企 能迅速赶上，但现在我们不那么确定了。我们必须思考芯片、垂直整合、软件能力，以及是否真正从全 新角度看待汽车本身。传统车企的战略和运营或许过度聚焦于成本控制。"Wertheimer坚定看好自动驾 驶汽车的颠覆性潜力，给予特斯拉"买入"评级，目标价为525美元。据FactSet数据，目前覆盖特斯拉的 分析师中，41%给予"买入"评级，而标普500成分股这一比例平均约55%。 ...

来源：市场资讯 （来源：美股情报站） 在11月7日的股市中，特斯拉的股价连续第二个交易日下跌，跌幅为3.68%，在两天内累计下跌了 7.04%。这一变化引发了市场对特斯拉未来走势的关注。 特斯拉目前正面临来自比亚迪等竞争对手的强力挑战。比亚迪在欧洲市场的表现特别抢眼，在多个国家 的销量远超特斯拉。同时，混合动力车的普及也给特斯拉造成了一定压力。特斯拉的CEO马斯克曾批评 混合动力车仅仅是过渡品，但随着市场需求的变化，特斯拉需要更灵活的应对策略。 除了市场挑战，特斯拉的技术创新也备受关注。马斯克在股东大会上透露了特斯拉在自动驾驶技术、高 效芯片生产等方面的计划。特斯拉计划建设大型芯片工厂以满足其自动驾驶和机器人业务的需求。此 外，特斯拉FSD技术的不断更新和在国际市场的推广，也被视为提升企业竞争力的关键。 尽管面临诸多挑战，特斯拉的市场地位依旧稳固，但其未来的发展仍需应对来自政策环境、市场竞争、 技术创新等多重因素的考验。对于投资者来说，关注特斯拉在技术研发、市场扩展等方面的进展，以及 全球政策环境的变化，将是关键的策略之一。 特斯拉在近期年度股东会上，通过了一项马斯克的高额薪酬激励方案，该方案可能让他在未来十 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that Tesla's shareholders approved Elon Musk's 10-year compensation plan valued at approximately $1 trillion, which requires Musk to achieve ambitious targets for Tesla's growth [2] - Musk must increase Tesla's market value from $1.5 trillion to $8.5 trillion, deliver 20 million vehicles, sell 1 million Optimus humanoid robots, deploy 1 million Robotaxis, and grow FSD subscription users to 10 million to receive the compensation [2] - Following the vote, Musk showcased the Optimus robot, claiming it will be the most influential product ever, surpassing smartphones and other technologies [2] Group 2 - The global electric vehicle market is currently dominated by Tesla and BYD, with Tesla holding a significant position due to its technological innovation and global strategy [3] - In August 2025, Tesla ranked second in global sales with 146,800 vehicles, trailing behind BYD's 316,300 vehicles [3] Group 3 - Tesla is a well-known electric vehicle manufacturer based in the U.S., producing high-performance electric cars and involved in energy storage and solar power [5] - The company is focusing on the development of its humanoid robot, Optimus, which is a key part of its AI strategy alongside autonomous driving and Robotaxi services [6][9] - As of August 2023, Tesla has developed at least five prototypes of the Optimus robot capable of walking, with plans for mass production expected to reach a million units by 2030 [6][9] Group 4 - Musk announced advancements in FSD technology, expressing confidence in enabling drivers to text while driving in the near future, indicating improvements in safety and intelligence of the autonomous driving system [9] - The approval of Musk's compensation plan reflects shareholders' renewed confidence in his ability to drive technological disruption and transform Tesla into a comprehensive tech giant covering transportation, robotics, and AI [9]

Core Viewpoint - Tesla's chairman, Robyn Denholm, indicated that if shareholders reject Elon Musk's high compensation plan, the company is prepared with a "Plan B" for a potential internal successor, with Zhu Xiaotong frequently mentioned as a candidate [1][15]. Financial Performance - Tesla's financial performance has declined, with a 37% year-over-year drop in net profit for Q3 2025, a gross margin decrease to 15.4%, and a 40% decline in net profit for 2024 compared to the previous year [1]. - The net profit for 2023 also saw a 16% decrease, leading to growing dissatisfaction among shareholders [1]. Compensation Plan - Musk's proposed compensation plan includes up to 423.7 million restricted shares, approximately 12% of the adjusted total shares, to be distributed in 12 tranches based on performance milestones [7]. - If fully realized, the plan could be valued at around $186.47 billion based on the stock price of $440.1 on October 31, 2025, requiring Tesla's market cap to increase from approximately $1.09 trillion to at least $8.5 trillion over ten years [7]. Shareholder Opposition - Significant opposition to Musk's compensation plan has emerged, with top advisory firm ISS recommending shareholders vote against it due to concerns over the board's independence and the potential dilution of existing shareholder equity [7][8]. - A coalition of large public pension funds has also urged shareholders to reject the plan and remove board members, citing Tesla's declining performance and increased competition in the electric vehicle market [8][9]. Zhu Xiaotong's Role - Zhu Xiaotong, Tesla's Senior Vice President and President of Greater China, has been recognized for his leadership in establishing the Shanghai Gigafactory, which achieved production in just over five months [11]. - Under Zhu's management, the Shanghai factory produced 957,000 vehicles in 2023, contributing 24% of Tesla's global revenue, showcasing his effectiveness in executing Tesla's localization strategy in China [12]. Leadership Transition Risks - The potential rejection of Musk's compensation plan raises concerns about his possible departure from Tesla, which could lead to strategic shifts and impact ongoing projects in AI and autonomous driving [14][15]. - The board has expressed confidence in Musk's ability to drive growth, denying any active search for a successor, but the uncertainty surrounding the compensation plan could affect investor confidence and Tesla's market valuation [15].

"除了奥斯汀，你现在可以在旧金山湾区叫一辆特斯拉，"马斯克在X上发帖称，但没有透露 其他细节。 根据特斯拉内部备忘录显示，在加州的网约车服务和在奥斯汀时一样，同样仅限受邀者使用。而不同的 是，加州的网约车服务并非无人驾驶，而是将在安全驾驶员的陪同下推出。 Robotaxi的应用更新也已经告诉用户，加州的网约车将由一名特斯拉安全员驾驶，只是驾驶过程中将使 用特斯拉FSD技术。 从目前社交媒体已经流出的视频来看，特斯拉在旧金山湾区的Robotaxi服务可以说完全不"Robo"，因为 其行驶全程都必须依赖于人类司机。这与其在奥斯汀的Robotaxi试点表现大相径庭。 监管成为最大阻碍 特斯拉在加州旧金山湾区推出网约车服务，但与在奥斯汀的自动驾驶出租车服务不同，加州 的网约车服务需要人类司机驾驶。 自在德克萨斯州奥斯汀正式推出自动驾驶出租车Robotaxi服务一个月后，特斯拉又将其网约车服务拓展 到加州——不过，这次并非"自动驾驶"出租车服务了，因为这次的汽车驾驶座上坐着司机。 特斯拉在加州推出叫车服务 美东时间周四凌晨，特斯拉CEO马斯克宣布，特斯拉已经在加州旧金山湾区推出了叫车服务——但值得 注意的是，他并未明确 ...

Core Insights - The Robotaxi sector is entering a critical phase with significant developments from major players like Tesla and Baidu, indicating a shift from technology validation to commercialization [1][2][3] - The global Robotaxi market is projected to grow explosively, with estimates suggesting a market size of $40 billion to $45.7 billion by 2030, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) exceeding 60% [1] - The competition landscape is characterized by a mix of established companies and new entrants, each adopting different technological approaches and business models [4][6][9] Industry Overview - The Robotaxi industry is witnessing a convergence of various players, including Tesla, Waymo, Baidu, and others, all vying for dominance in the L4 autonomous driving technology space [1][3] - The competition involves a full industry chain battle encompassing chips, sensors, algorithms, vehicle manufacturing, and operational services [3][4] - The current competitive dynamics show a clear divide between American and Chinese players, with Tesla and Waymo leading in the U.S. and Baidu's Robotaxi making significant strides in China [4][6] Technological Developments - Tesla's core competitive advantage lies in its integrated hardware and software capabilities, although its initial Robotaxi fleet is still in the L2 stage, requiring a safety driver [4][10] - Waymo has achieved significant operational milestones, with its Robotaxi service in the U.S. reaching over 100,000 paid rides per week, doubling from earlier figures [4] - Baidu's Robotaxi, leveraging a multi-sensor approach, has demonstrated a more robust safety profile, with a reported accident rate significantly lower than human drivers [10][12] Market Dynamics - The Robotaxi market is expected to address structural challenges in traditional taxi services, such as driver aging and operational inefficiencies, with projections indicating a potential deployment of 1.9 million Robotaxis in China [17] - Investment in the Robotaxi sector is surging, with forecasts suggesting $9.06 billion in funding for 2024, indicating renewed confidence in the market [17] - Companies like Xiaoma Zhixing and Baidu's Robotaxi are showing promising growth, with Xiaoma reporting a 200% year-on-year revenue increase in its Robotaxi business [18][20] Competitive Strategies - Different players are adopting varied strategies: Baidu's Robotaxi is focusing on cost reduction and scalability, while Tesla is rapidly expanding its fleet despite current limitations [20][21] - The success of Robotaxi services will depend on overcoming technological validation and regulatory challenges, with a focus on operational efficiency and user experience [9][15] - The ability to leverage data for operational improvements and safety enhancements will be crucial for companies to maintain a competitive edge in the evolving landscape [21]

Core Viewpoint - Tesla's Robotaxi service has officially launched in Austin, Texas, marking a significant step in the company's autonomous vehicle strategy and its potential to reshape the transportation landscape [3][4]. Group 1: Robotaxi Launch and Features - The initial fleet consists of ten refreshed Model Y vehicles, with plans to expand the fleet with additional models like Cybercab [5]. - The Robotaxi operates within a geofenced area and is currently available only to invited users who can request rides via the Robotaxi app [6]. - The service offers personalized experiences by syncing user preferences and payment information through their Tesla accounts [7][8]. Group 2: Market Potential and Opportunities - Elon Musk views Robotaxi as a key opportunity for Tesla, predicting it could revolutionize transportation and generate significant revenue, potentially a "trillion-dollar opportunity" [9][10]. - The scalability of Tesla's Robotaxi is enhanced by its pure vision technology, which avoids the high costs associated with lidar and high-definition mapping used by competitors like Waymo [11][12]. - The operational efficiency of Robotaxi is expected to surpass traditional taxi services, with Musk estimating a utilization rate of over 40 hours per week per vehicle and a gross margin of 70-80% [15]. Group 3: Challenges and Competition - Safety and efficiency of the Full Self-Driving (FSD) technology are critical challenges for the Robotaxi service, as user acceptance hinges on these factors [18][19]. - Regulatory hurdles are also significant, with local opposition and calls for delays in the service's rollout due to new autonomous driving laws [21][22]. - Competitors like Waymo and Baidu's RoboTaxi have already made strides in the autonomous taxi market, with Waymo reporting a fivefold increase in service volume and over 1.5 million rides per week [24][26]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The market is particularly focused on how Tesla can achieve rapid scaling of its Robotaxi service while ensuring safety, which will be crucial for its valuation in the capital markets [31].

Group 1: Market Performance - The autonomous driving concept stocks in Hong Kong and A-shares experienced a strong surge, with multiple stocks hitting the daily limit up [1][2] - Notable A-share stocks include Wanma Technology (+20.01%), Hengshuai Co. (+20.00%), and Haima Automobile (+10.03%) [1] - In the Hong Kong market, Zhixing Technology rose by 6.86%, and Yingheng Technology increased by 6.47% [2] Group 2: Tesla's Developments - Tesla's stock surged over 8%, adding more than 600 billion yuan (approximately $85.42 billion) to its market value [3] - The launch of Tesla's Robotaxi service in Austin, Texas, marks a significant step in the commercialization of autonomous driving technology [5][9] - The Robotaxi fleet is expected to achieve a gross margin of 70% to 80%, significantly higher than traditional automotive business margins [6] Group 3: Industry Outlook - The Robotaxi market in China is projected to exceed 1.18 trillion yuan by 2025 and 2.93 trillion yuan by 2030, indicating substantial growth potential [15] - Major players in the autonomous driving sector, including Hello and Baidu, are actively entering the Robotaxi market, indicating a competitive landscape [16] - Analysts express optimism about the commercial prospects of Robotaxi, with significant market opportunities attracting leading companies [16]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles emphasizes the establishment of mandatory national standards for intelligent connected vehicles to ensure safety and end the era of "wild growth" in the industry [2][3] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and eight other departments are soliciting opinions on the "Automobile Data Export Security Guidelines (2025 Edition)," which outlines conditions under which automobile data processors must apply for security assessments when exporting data abroad [3][4] - The Shenzhen intelligent connected vehicle industry has seen significant growth, with a 38.2% increase in added value in the year following the implementation of the management regulations, reaching 102.37 billion yuan in 2024 [5] Group 2 - Xiaopeng Motors and Huawei jointly launched the "Chasing Light" AR-HUD solution, the world's first AR-HUD solution integrated with AI driving, which will debut in the Xiaopeng G7 [4] - Li Auto announced the establishment of two new robot departments, focusing on "space robots" and "wearable robots," indicating an expansion into artificial intelligence [7] - The launch of the GAC's first mass-produced flying car, GOVY AirCab, with a price not exceeding 1.68 million yuan, marks a significant step in urban aerial transportation [11] Group 3 - Tesla's CEO Elon Musk is urging the EU to expedite the approval of Full Self-Driving (FSD) technology, highlighting the potential safety benefits of using Tesla's advanced Autopilot technology [10] - Waymo's autonomous vehicles were damaged during protests in Los Angeles, leading to a temporary suspension of services in the area, emphasizing the need for comprehensive safety and risk assessments for autonomous vehicle operations [11][12] - GAC Toyota announced a deepened collaboration with Huawei, Xiaomi, and Momenta to build an AI automotive ecosystem, showcasing a shift towards integrated smart electric vehicle solutions [12][13]