华泰证券发表研报称，该行追踪的数据显示，泡泡玛特去年第四季国内及海外业绩按季表现具高韧性， 在经历Labubu 3.0销售高峰后，IP矩阵的力量对销售增长形成坚实支撑。该行认为泡泡玛特业绩增长的 可持续性以及中长期空间受低估，在目前市场分歧阶段估值具吸引力。 消息面上，泡泡玛特近期出手回购。1月19日，泡泡玛特斥资2.51亿港元回购140万股股份；1月21日， 公司斥资约9648.96万港元回购50万股。摩根士丹利表示，泡泡玛特自2024年初以来首次回购股份。估 算泡泡玛特在2025年录得净利润126亿元人民币，并于2025年底持有200亿元的净现金人民币，显示公司 具备充裕的财务资源以进一步回馈股东。 智通财经APP获悉，泡泡玛特(09992)午后涨近6%，截至发稿，涨5.86%，报205.8港元，成交额23.21亿 港元。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Huatai Securities reports that Bubble Mart's performance in Q4 last year showed strong resilience both domestically and internationally, supported by the strength of its IP matrix after the sales peak of Labubu 3.0 [1] Group 1: Performance Insights - The company's sales growth is underpinned by the strength of its IP matrix, indicating a solid foundation for future performance [1] - Bubble Mart repurchased 1.4 million shares for HKD 251 million on January 19, reflecting the company's confidence in its growth prospects [1] Group 2: Valuation and Recommendations - Huatai Securities believes that the sustainability of Bubble Mart's performance growth and its medium to long-term potential are undervalued [1] - The current market valuation is considered attractive amid existing market discrepancies, maintaining a "Buy" rating with a target price of HKD 410 [1]

Core Viewpoint - The stock price of Pop Mart (09992.HK) has experienced a significant decline following the release of its Q3 operating results, with a drop of over 9% and a cumulative decline of nearly 30% since September [1][3]. Financial Performance - Pop Mart reported a remarkable year-on-year revenue increase of 245%-250% for Q3 2025, continuing the high growth trend observed in the first half of the year [5]. - Revenue from the Chinese market grew by 185%-190%, with online channels seeing a growth rate of 300%-305% and offline channels increasing by 130%-135% [5]. - The overseas market showed exceptional performance, with overall revenue soaring by 365%-370%. The Americas market led with a staggering growth rate of 1265%-1270%, while Europe and Asia-Pacific regions grew by 735%-740% and 170%-175%, respectively [6]. Market Sentiment and Analyst Opinions - There is a divergence in analyst opinions regarding the sustainability of Pop Mart's high growth. Some analysts express concerns that revenue growth may peak this year, leading to a potential slowdown in 2024 [7]. - Conversely, JPMorgan upgraded Pop Mart's rating from "Neutral" to "Overweight," raising the target price from 300 HKD to 320 HKD, citing strong performance of popular IPs and improved valuation attractiveness as key drivers [7]. - According to招商证券, Pop Mart's net profit for 2025 is expected to reach 7 billion RMB, approximately 15% higher than market consensus, primarily due to an underestimation of the scale and speed of its overseas expansion [7]. - The significant divergence in institutional views has led to market volatility, with Pop Mart's stock dropping nearly 11% intraday, reflecting investor concerns about the sustainability of growth amid high base effects [7].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report analyzes brand mind-share in the Chinese consumer market using Baidu search data, which holds a nearly 70% market share in web searches in China. This analysis provides insights into consumer interest and potential market-share movements [1][2][3]. E-Commerce Sector - **Alibaba** regained the top position with a 4% quarter-over-quarter (QoQ) increase, attributed to online delivery initiatives and the launch of an open-source AI agent [2][14]. - **JD.com** fell to second place with a 10% QoQ decline in search hits [2][14]. - **Pinduoduo**, **Ctrip**, and **VIP.com** ranked third, fourth, and fifth, with respective increases of 1%, 7%, and 7% in search hits QoQ [2][14]. IP & Pop Toys - **Pop Mart** maintained its top position despite a 64% QoQ decline in search hits, influenced by a high base from the previous quarter [5]. - The overall sector saw a 48% QoQ decrease in hits but a 12% year-over-year (YoY) increase [5]. Apparel Sector - The sportswear segment experienced a 13% QoQ decline in hits, with **Arc'teryx** rising to first place (+30%) due to a controversial marketing campaign [3]. - **Nike** dropped to third place with a 26% decline in hits, while **Adidas** remained second with a 17% decline [3]. Restaurant & Food Retailers - Restaurant search hits were flat QoQ (-1%) and down 22% YoY. The rankings remained unchanged with **KFC** and **McDonald's** in the top two positions, both experiencing a 4% decline in hits [4]. - Freshly-made drinks saw an 8% QoQ decline and a 48% YoY decline, with **Mixue** rising to first place (+75% QoQ) due to collaborations and brand ambassador appointments [4]. Soft Drinks and Dairy - The soft drinks sector saw an 18% QoQ increase in hits, with **Wahaha** overtaking **Coca-Cola** to become the top brand (+101% QoQ) [11]. - Dairy products also experienced a 25% QoQ increase in hits, with **Wahaha** leading the category [11]. Home Appliances - The home appliance sector saw a 2% QoQ decline in hits, with **Midea** remaining the top brand (+7% QoQ) [10]. Luxury Goods - The luxury goods sector experienced a 9% QoQ decline in hits, with **Louis Vuitton**, **Chanel**, and **Dior** maintaining the top three positions [13]. Automotive Sector - The luxury automotive segment saw a 10% QoQ decline, while electric vehicles (EVs) experienced a 3% increase. **Audi** remained the top luxury auto brand with a 3% increase in hits [15]. Mobile Search Trends - Mobile search queries accounted for 70% of total search queries, indicating a stable trend in mobile penetration across various categories [16]. Brand Rankings - The top searched brands across various categories remained largely stable, with notable mentions including **Cartier** in jewelry, **Wuliangye** in spirits, and **Arc'teryx** in sportswear [8][17]. Conclusion - The analysis highlights the dynamic nature of the Chinese consumer market, with significant shifts in brand rankings and consumer preferences across various sectors. The data from Baidu searches serves as a valuable indicator of brand strength and market trends [1][2][3].

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market experienced significant net inflows from northbound trading, with a total net buy of 15.822 billion HKD on October 16, 2023, indicating strong investor interest in specific stocks [1]. Group 1: Northbound Trading Activity - Northbound trading saw a net buy of 8.672 billion HKD through the Shanghai Stock Connect and 7.15 billion HKD through the Shenzhen Stock Connect [1]. - The stocks with the highest net inflows included Zijin Mining International (02259), Xiaomi Group-W (01810), and Alibaba-W (09988) [1]. - The stocks with the highest net outflows were Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation (00981), GigaDevice Semiconductor (02367), and Tencent (00700) [1]. Group 2: Individual Stock Performance - Alibaba-W (09988) had a net buy of 2.696 billion HKD, with total buy and sell amounts of 4.816 billion HKD, reflecting a net inflow of 575 million HKD [2]. - Xiaomi Group-W (01810) recorded a net buy of 2.508 billion HKD, with total buy and sell amounts of 3.995 billion HKD, resulting in a net inflow of 1.02 billion HKD [2]. - Zijin Mining International (02259) received a net buy of 1.843 billion HKD, with total buy and sell amounts of 1.949 billion HKD [5]. - GigaDevice Semiconductor (02367) faced a net sell of 3.80 billion HKD, with total buy and sell amounts of 1.422 billion HKD [4]. - Tencent (00700) experienced a net sell of 2.35 billion HKD, with total buy and sell amounts of 3.020 billion HKD [2]. Group 3: Market Insights and Future Projections - Zijin Mining International is expected to achieve a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 20% in production from 2025 to 2027, increasing total output from 45 tons to 65 tons, which could lead to a 30% CAGR in profits [5]. - Xiaomi's stock price volatility is influenced by various news events, with expectations of a decline in gross profit margin (GPM) in the second half of the year [5]. - Alibaba's future capital expenditure forecast has been raised to 460 billion HKD, with projected year-on-year growth rates for cloud revenue of 31%, 38%, and 37% over the next three quarters [5]. - Kangfang Biologics (09926) received a net buy of 602 million HKD following the acceptance of its clinical research results for a new drug in a top medical journal [6]. - Pop Mart (09992) saw a net buy of 470 million HKD, with expectations of strong sales growth from new IPs [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Pop Mart (9992 HK) with a target price of HKD 396.00 [2][6]. Core Viewpoints - Recent stock price corrections of Pop Mart, which have dropped nearly 25% from the August 26 high, are primarily driven by market concerns over the decline in second-hand prices of certain popular products and the sustainability of their popularity. However, the report argues that second-hand prices are not a reasonable measure of popularity, as the current price adjustments are mainly driven by supply expansion rather than changes in demand [2][3]. - The company is expected to achieve a successful path of "artistic equity," which lays a solid foundation for sustainable long-term growth. The report suggests that investors should actively seize the opportunity to position themselves for future gains [2][3]. Summary by Sections Second-Hand Price Fluctuations and Supply-Demand Dynamics - The recent fluctuations in the second-hand prices of Labubu are attributed to increased supply rather than changes in demand. The report highlights that the second-hand prices of products unaffected by capacity changes, such as Labubu blind box figures, have remained stable or increased, indicating strong IP popularity [3][12]. - Pop Mart's unique brand positioning and supply control in the artist IP toy market provide it with a competitive edge, reducing the likelihood of new entrants causing supply excess and price instability [3][14]. New Product Launches and Pricing Strategies - Recent product launches, such as Mini Labubu, have generated significant fan engagement and strong sales performance in North America. The company demonstrates flexibility in pricing strategies, allowing for differentiated pricing across various IPs and series [4][5]. - The upcoming Q3 earnings report is anticipated to reflect positive impacts from new product releases and the holiday season, with expectations for continued high growth in Q4 [4][5]. Long-Term Growth Drivers - The report outlines several growth drivers for Pop Mart's performance through 2026, including rapid capacity expansion in plush toys, a diverse range of new product categories, and the potential for significant revenue growth from major IPs like The Monsters [5][23]. - The company is expected to continue expanding its store presence, particularly overseas, which will enhance brand influence and customer acquisition [5][23]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The report projects adjusted net profits for 2025-2027 to be RMB 116 billion, RMB 170 billion, and RMB 220 billion, respectively, reflecting an upward revision of 14% for 2025 [6][9]. - The target price is set at HKD 396, based on a PE ratio of 42x for 2025, which is higher than the average PE of comparable companies [6][33]. Unique Business Model and Market Position - Pop Mart's unique business model, characterized by strong control over the entire industry chain, allows for both IP innovation and product category innovation, reinforcing its market position [31][34]. - The establishment of a global fan ecosystem enhances the company's ability to transmit heat across regions and IPs, further solidifying its competitive advantage [34].

Group 1: Labubu 3.0 and Pop Mart - Labubu 3.0 series has launched global pre-sales, with expected sales exceeding 500 million yuan based on a supply of 4-5 million units at a price of 99 yuan each [2] - The secondary market has seen a significant drop in prices for Labubu products, with resale values for blind box sets plummeting from 1500-2800 yuan to 650-800 yuan [2] - Pop Mart's stock price has dropped 12.11% to 239.60 HKD per share, marking a new low since June 3 [2][3] Group 2: Pop Mart's Strategic Response - Analysts have expressed concerns about Pop Mart's valuation, suggesting it lacks a competitive moat due to the short lifespan of its IP and weak pricing power compared to global operators like Disney [3] - In response to market challenges, Pop Mart is optimizing its sales mechanism to allow more genuine fans to purchase Labubu products [3] - The company has announced the establishment of a film studio to expand its IP beyond toys, with an animated series titled "LABUBU and Friends" in the pipeline [3] Group 3: Lao Pu Gold's Global Expansion - Lao Pu Gold is opening its first overseas store in Singapore, aiming to position itself as a luxury brand alongside established names like Louis Vuitton and Hermes [4] - The brand's strategy includes focusing on the Chinese cultural sphere in Southeast Asia, with plans to open four stores in the region by 2026 [5] - Lao Pu Gold plans to introduce localized products that incorporate local cultural elements, such as Christian-themed items in the Singapore store [5] Group 4: Walmart's Dominance in Retail - Walmart China has retained its position as the top supermarket chain with a sales figure of 158.845 billion yuan, equivalent to about two times the size of Hema [7] - Despite a reduction in the number of stores by 8.5% to 334, Walmart's sales have continued to grow, driven by the strong performance of Sam's Club [7] - In Q1 of the 2026 fiscal year, Walmart China's net sales reached 6.7 billion USD (approximately 48.3 billion yuan), reflecting a year-on-year growth of 22.5% [7] Group 5: NITORI's Market Challenges - NITORI has closed 21 stores in China, representing a 20% closure rate, as it faces challenges in the macroeconomic environment [10] - The brand has attempted to diversify its product offerings by introducing higher-frequency items like clothing and pet food, but competition in these categories is intense [11] - NITORI's rapid expansion plans have been curtailed due to the sluggish real estate market and overall consumer sentiment [10][11] Group 6: Three Squirrels' Acquisition Setback - Three Squirrels has terminated its acquisition of Love Snacks due to disagreements on core terms of the deal [13][15] - The company has been heavily reliant on online sales, with 69.73% of its revenue coming from online channels, highlighting its need to strengthen its offline presence [13] - The competitive landscape in the snack industry has intensified, prompting Three Squirrels to reassess its offline strategy amid slowing growth [14] Group 7: Marketing Innovations - Fujifilm's skincare brand ASTALIFT has launched a new sunscreen product that combines multiple functions, targeting young consumers [17] - Balenciaga has opened a flagship store in Beijing, introducing a limited-edition "Peking Duck" bag that sold out quickly, showcasing the brand's unique marketing strategy [19] - IKEA has released a new series of decorative lights designed in collaboration with Dutch designer Sabine Marcelis, emphasizing the role of light in home living [21] Group 8: Corporate Developments - Anta has appointed Yao Jian as the president of the Wolf Claw brand to oversee global operations following its acquisition [25] - The parent company of the Chinese makeup brand Orange has acquired the skincare brand Baizhi Cui, marking its entry into the skincare market [25] - Li Ning has hired Victor Herrero, a former executive from Zara, as the new CEO of Clarks, with a potential total compensation of up to 42 million yuan [26]

Group 1 - Tencent has launched a new WeChat mini-program called "Short Drama," which allows users to watch and share short dramas for free. The program features various rankings and supports sharing with friends [1] - The Labubu 3.0 plush toy pre-sale by Pop Mart has generated significant sales, with over 1 million units sold across multiple platforms, resulting in estimated sales exceeding 500 million yuan [2] - Honor's CEO announced the upcoming release of the Magic V5, touted as the world's lightest foldable smartphone, set to launch on July 2 [3] Group 2 - The QS World University Rankings for 2026 have been released, with MIT retaining the top position and notable improvements in rankings for Chinese universities, including Peking University and Tsinghua University [4][5] - Xiaomi reported a record-breaking sales figure of over 35.5 billion yuan during the 618 shopping festival [6] - Bilibili's animation short dramas achieved a monthly revenue of over 10 million yuan in Q1 2025, marking a 50-fold increase compared to the previous year [7] Group 3 - Analyst Ming-Chi Kuo indicated that Apple is expected to start production of its foldable iPhone by late Q3 or early Q4 2025, with an estimated order of 15 to 20 million units [8] - OpenAI's CEO Sam Altman announced that GPT-5 may be released this summer [9] - A report from TransUnion revealed that 27% of American consumers are pessimistic about their financial situation over the next year, an increase from 21% in the previous quarter [10] Group 4 - Xiaomi's president revealed that the price of the upcoming YU7 model will not be cheap, emphasizing the high-end features and technology included [11][12] - During the 618 shopping festival, 453 brands achieved over 100 million yuan in sales on Tmall, a 24% increase from the previous year [13] - Microsoft plans to lay off thousands of employees, primarily in the sales department, as it increases investments in artificial intelligence [14]

Group 1 - The stock of Pop Mart in Hong Kong experienced a decline of over 5% during trading [1] - The online pre-sale of Labubu 3.0 was launched for the first time, indicating a new product release [1] - The resale price by scalpers has halved, suggesting a significant drop in demand or market saturation [1]

Core Insights - The Labubu 3.0 series from Pop Mart has gained significant popularity in the global market, particularly in the U.S. and Europe, with sales increasing approximately 8 times and 5 times year-over-year respectively in April [4][5] - The influence of Labubu in the fashion sector is rising, with more celebrities and KOLs adopting it as a decorative item, contributing to a surge in social media engagement [4][5] - Pop Mart's global expansion strategy is showing tangible progress, with expectations of continued high revenue and net profit growth over the next three years [4][10] Sales Performance - In April, sales through online platforms in China increased by 287% year-over-year, with significant growth on platforms like Tmall, JD, and Douyin [7] - Offline same-store sales in China also saw a notable acceleration, growing by 50% compared to the first quarter of 2025 [7] Market Expansion - Pop Mart plans to open 110 new retail stores overseas and 20 in the domestic market, aiming for a total of approximately 650 stores by the end of 2025 [6] - The company has opened 14 new retail stores this year, primarily in the U.S., EU, and Southeast Asia, focusing on landmark and cultural locations [5] Financial Projections - According to Bank of America, Pop Mart's revenue is projected to reach HKD 22.601 billion and net profit HKD 6.5 billion by 2025, reflecting a year-over-year growth of 91% [10] - The company is expected to maintain a strong valuation with a P/E ratio of 42.42x for 2025 and 27.27x for 2026, indicating attractive investment potential [10][11]