Core Viewpoint - The recent departure of Gu Mai, a partner of NAN beauty under Shangmei Co., has raised concerns about the company's reliance on a single brand and its overall business strategy in the beauty industry [1][2]. Group 1: Company Overview - Shangmei Co. has a diverse portfolio of brands, including skincare and maternal and infant products, but over 80% of its revenue still comes from the Han Shu brand [1][4]. - As of the first half of 2025, Han Shu generated revenue of 33.44 billion yuan, accounting for 81.4% of the total revenue, with a year-on-year increase of 14.3% [4][6]. - Other brands under Shangmei, such as newpage, Yiyezi, and Hongse Xiaoxiang, contributed significantly less, with revenues of 3.97 billion yuan, 0.89 billion yuan, and 1.59 billion yuan, respectively [4]. Group 2: Market Position and Challenges - The company has a strong presence on Douyin, with over 90% of its revenue coming from online channels, primarily from Douyin, indicating a high sensitivity to platform traffic [1][5]. - The departure of Gu Mai, who had expertise in the Tmall channel, highlights a gap in Shangmei's strategy, as the brand has struggled to gain traction on Tmall despite its strong performance on Douyin [2][5]. - The brand NAN beauty, launched in September 2025, has not shown significant growth in its follower count on platforms like Xiaohongshu, indicating challenges in brand performance [2]. Group 3: Financial and Operational Insights - Shangmei's marketing expenses remain high, with sales and distribution costs accounting for 56.9% of total revenue in the first half of 2025, although this is a slight decrease from 57.6% in the previous year [6]. - The company has been exploring new growth avenues, but the success of these initiatives remains uncertain [7]. - The recent controversy surrounding Han Shu's products, which were found to contain questionable ingredients, has negatively impacted the company's stock price, which fell from 85.3 HKD to 57 HKD before recovering slightly to 73.95 HKD [6].

Core Viewpoint - The recent departure of Gu Mai, the former General Manager of Tmall Beauty, from the NAN beauty brand under Shangmei Group, highlights a shift in leadership within the company, which is expected to maintain stable operations despite this change [1] Group 1 - Gu Mai joined Shangmei Group in mid-2025 and has left his position within a year due to personal career development adjustments [1] - Shangmei Group stated that the brand operations of NAN beauty are running normally and the brand center team remains stable [1] - Gu Mai may still maintain a connection with the brand in other forms in the future [1]

Core Viewpoint - The recent controversy surrounding the ingredient EGF in the core brand Han Shu of Shangmei Co. has led to significant stock price fluctuations and raised concerns about the company's future growth plans [4][5][8]. Group 1: Company Developments - Chairman Lv Yixiong announced that executive director Luo Yan purchased 364,000 shares at approximately HKD 75.5 each, totaling about HKD 66.32 million, indicating strong confidence in the company's future [2]. - The company aims to achieve a revenue target of 30 billion yuan by 2030, requiring a doubling of current revenue within five years [12][38]. - In the first half of the year, the company's revenue reached 4.1 billion yuan, with a goal of hitting 10 billion yuan in annual revenue for the new brand Newpage [11][22]. Group 2: Controversy and Market Reaction - The controversy originated from the detection of EGF in two Han Shu face masks, leading to a significant drop in stock price, with a loss of over 10 billion yuan in market value [5][8]. - Han Shu's official response included presenting third-party testing results to refute the claims, but investor concerns persisted, resulting in a 30% drop in stock price on the first trading day after the holiday [8][39]. - The Chinese Fragrance and Cosmetic Industry Association noted that there is currently no commercial ELISA kit available for testing EGF in cosmetics, which complicates the situation [9]. Group 3: Strategic Expansion Plans - The company is in a critical expansion phase, planning to launch 20 new brands between 2025 and 2027, primarily leveraging the Douyin platform for marketing [10][22]. - The company is also focusing on international markets, with a significant investment of 300 million yuan in a factory in Southeast Asia [24]. - The strategy includes hiring top talent and implementing a rigorous selection process to enhance brand development and marketing effectiveness [29][32].

Core Viewpoint - The stock of Shangmei Co., Ltd. (02145) has increased by over 3%, currently trading at 96.4 HKD with a transaction volume of 49.12 million HKD, driven by positive market developments and strong performance indicators in the beauty sector [1] Group 1: Company Performance - According to Qingyan Intelligence, the total GMV of the top 20 beauty brands on Douyin is expected to exceed 3 billion CNY by September 2025, capturing a market share of 17.6%, which represents a year-on-year growth of 38.59% [1] - Han Shu, a leading brand under Shangmei, continues to lead with a GMV exceeding 500 million CNY [1] - Huatai Securities reports that Shangmei's revenue and profit growth in the first half of the year have been impressive, with strong growth momentum observed in August as the main brand Han Shu expands into multiple product categories [1] Group 2: Market Expansion - The company has successfully launched multiple brands, including Guoguang White, Bread Superhero, and NAN Beauty, since the beginning of the second half of the year, indicating effective brand expansion [1] - The ability to incubate and operate multiple brands and product categories has been initially validated, suggesting potential for further growth if this capability continues to be replicated [1] - The internal organizational structure is characterized by high efficiency and strong execution capabilities, laying a solid foundation for future growth [1]

Core Viewpoint - The stock of Shumei Co., Ltd. (02145) has increased by over 3%, currently trading at 96.4 HKD with a transaction volume of 49.12 million HKD, indicating positive market sentiment towards the company [1] Group 1: Company Performance - According to Qianyan Intelligence, the total GMV of the top 20 beauty brands on Douyin is expected to exceed 3 billion CNY by September 2025, capturing a market share of 17.6%, which represents a year-on-year growth of 38.59% [1] - Han Shu, a leading brand under Shumei, has achieved over 500 million CNY in GMV, maintaining its position at the forefront of the market [1] - Huatai Securities reports that Shumei's revenue and profit growth in the first half of the year have been impressive, with strong growth momentum observed in August as the company continues to expand its product lines, including next-generation essence and fragrance body wash [1] Group 2: Market Expansion and Strategy - The company has successfully launched multiple brands, including Guangguang White, Bread Superhero, and NAN Beauty, since the second half of the year, indicating effective brand expansion strategies [1] - The ongoing multi-brand and multi-category incubation and operational capabilities of the company have been preliminarily validated, suggesting potential for further growth if these capabilities can be replicated [1] - The internal organizational structure of the company is characterized by high efficiency and strong execution, providing a solid foundation for future growth [1]

Core Insights - The Chinese beauty industry is experiencing a significant transformation, with many brands exiting the market while others are rapidly launching new sub-brands to adapt to changing consumer demands and market conditions [1][8][24]. Group 1: Industry Trends - The beauty industry is facing a "winter" period, leading to the exit of several brands such as Qiaodi Shanghui and Jing Sheng Zhi Yuan [1]. - Despite the challenges, there is a surge in new brand launches, indicating a robust response from leading companies [1][8]. - Major players like Shangmei Co., Beitaini, and Polaroid are actively developing multiple sub-brands to enhance their market presence [8][24]. Group 2: Company Strategies - Shangmei Co. has launched three new brands this year, including NAN beauty, a high-end anti-aging brand Tazu, and a baby care brand [10][11]. - Beitaini is set to introduce a new acne treatment brand, Ansta, which has been in development for three years [15][16]. - Polaroid is considering overseas acquisitions to fill gaps in its product offerings, targeting markets such as baby care and men's grooming [17][24]. Group 3: Market Positioning - The multi-brand strategy allows companies to cater to diverse consumer needs across different demographics, enhancing their competitive edge [24][29]. - Companies are focusing on leveraging their main brand strengths to create differentiated sub-brands that address specific market segments [27][30]. - The trend of building a multi-brand matrix is becoming standard among leading beauty companies in China, moving away from a single-brand dominance [28][39]. Group 4: Growth Strategies - Companies are employing both internal brand incubation and external acquisitions as primary methods for expanding their brand portfolios [29][33]. - Internal incubation allows companies to innovate and meet emerging consumer demands effectively, while acquisitions provide immediate access to established brands and markets [32][38]. - The balance between these strategies is crucial for sustained growth and market relevance in a competitive landscape [39].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights the strong performance of the retail and beauty sectors, with a focus on the growth potential of domestic brands in the beauty industry [6][44] - The medical beauty segment is expected to see new growth drivers from innovative products, while the cosmetics sector is benefiting from the rise of domestic brands and consumer trends towards self-care [6][44] Summary by Sections 1. Market Review - The beauty and personal care index rose by 6.84% in August 2025, ranking 15th among all primary industries, underperforming the broader market which saw a 7.97% increase [12][15] - In the medical beauty sector, notable stock performances in August included Meili Tianyuan Medical Health (+32.4%), Kedi (+31.7%), and Yisi Health (+22.7%) [16] - In the cosmetics sector, leading performers were Jiaheng Home (+55.4%), Shuiyang Co. (+36.3%), and Ruoyu Chen (+29.0%) [20] 2. Medical Beauty - Jinbo Biological's "Recombinant Type III Humanized Collagen Freeze-Dried Fiber" received drug auxiliary material registration, marking a significant advancement in the medical field [26] - Longzi Co. plans to acquire 67.5% of Chongqing Milan Baiyu for 92.475 million yuan, with performance commitments ensuring net profits of at least 9.29 million yuan, 9.89 million yuan, and 11.83 million yuan from 2025 to 2027 [28] 3. Cosmetics - Proya plans to list in Hong Kong, potentially becoming the first A+H share beauty company, which would enhance its international business development [32] - Proya's investment in Huazhi Xiao will strengthen its position in the makeup sector, leveraging Huazhi Xiao's content operations and overseas channels [35] - The launch of the NAN beauty brand by Shangmei Co. represents a strategic move to enhance its presence in the mid-to-high-end market [40] 4. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading domestic beauty brands that are continuously evolving and capitalizing on high-growth segments [44] - Key recommendations include Shangmei Co., Maogeping, Proya, and Runben Co., with an emphasis on their strong market positions and growth potential [48]

Core Viewpoint - The main brand, Han Shu, is solidifying its leading position in the Douyin beauty sector and is experiencing rapid growth on other e-commerce platforms [1][2] Group 1: Brand Performance - Han Shu maintained the top position in Douyin beauty rankings for Chinese brands, achieving this for two consecutive years in 2023 and 2024, and has held this ranking every month in the first eight months of 2023 [1] - The brand's competitive strength is highlighted by proactive adjustments to its live broadcasting and self-broadcasting models amid increasing industry competition [1] - In addition to Douyin, Han Shu's GMV on platforms like Tmall, Vipshop, Pinduoduo, and Kuaishou grew by over 20% in the first half of the year, indicating effective multi-platform collaboration [1] Group 2: New Growth Drivers - The mid-to-high-end baby and child brand, Yi Ye, reported a 147% year-on-year revenue increase in the first half of the year, with its revenue share rising to 9.6%, establishing it as the company's second growth curve [2] - Yi Ye's expansion from baby skincare to a full range of efficacy skincare for ages 0-18 is expected to further enhance its growth potential, with a projected compound annual growth rate of around 60% over the next three years [2] - The launch of the new color cosmetics brand, NAN beauty, in mid-August, is expected to enrich the company's multi-brand matrix, supported by collaborations with top makeup artists and e-commerce experts [2] Group 3: Long-term Growth Potential - The company's multi-brand and multi-category strategy is becoming increasingly robust, with several new brands and product categories in development [2] - The success of the multi-brand approach is attributed to effective incentive and management mechanisms, including internal empowerment and a results-oriented culture, as well as an open attitude towards external collaborations [2] Group 4: Profit Forecast and Investment Recommendation - The company's earnings forecast has been slightly adjusted, with expected earnings per share for 2025-2027 at 2.78, 3.55, and 4.37 RMB respectively [2] - A target price of 103.21 HKD is set for 2025, based on a 34x PE ratio, maintaining a "buy" rating [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5][10] Core Views - The main brand, Han Shu, has solidified its leading position in the Douyin beauty sector and is experiencing rapid growth on other e-commerce platforms, with a strong performance across multiple platforms [9] - The second growth curve has formed with the mid-to-high-end baby and child brand, Yi Ye, showing a significant revenue increase of 147% year-on-year, contributing to the company's growth [9] - The company launched a new high-end professional makeup brand, NAN beauty, which is expected to enhance its multi-brand strategy [9] - The company's multi-brand and multi-category layout is becoming increasingly mature, supported by effective management and incentive mechanisms [9] Financial Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for 2025-2027 are adjusted to 2.78, 3.55, and 4.37 RMB respectively, with a target price of 103.21 HKD based on a 34x PE ratio for 2025 [4][10] - The company’s revenue is projected to grow significantly, with 2023 revenue at 4,191 million RMB and expected to reach 12,411 million RMB by 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate [4][10] - The gross margin is expected to remain stable around 75%, while the net profit margin is projected to improve from 11.0% in 2023 to 14.0% in 2027 [4][10]

Group 1 - The company reported a robust revenue growth of 17.29% year-on-year, achieving an operating income of 4.108 billion yuan in H1 2025 [1] - The net profit attributable to the parent company reached 524 million yuan, reflecting a significant increase of 30.65% year-on-year [1] - The gross margin for H1 2025 was 75.52%, a slight decrease of 0.99 percentage points, while the net profit margin improved by 1.74 percentage points to 13.52% [1] Group 2 - The main brand, Han Shu, generated revenue of 3.344 billion yuan in H1 2025, marking a 14.3% increase, with significant sales from the Hong Man Yao and X Peptide series [2] - The second brand, Newpage, saw a remarkable revenue growth of 146.5% year-on-year, reaching 397 million yuan, achieving its annual sales target for 2024 [2] - The company is actively enhancing its online sales strategy, with self-operated online channels generating 3.421 billion yuan in revenue, a 24.6% increase, and accounting for 83.3% of total revenue [2] Group 3 - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 1.025 billion yuan, 1.286 billion yuan, and 1.566 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 32, 26, and 21 [3]