电池片、炼焦煤——大宗商品热点解读 20251231 摘要 2025 年光伏电池片价格大幅下跌，6 月最低至 0.24 元/瓦，受政策、需 求和成本等多重因素影响，行业进入寒冬期，多数企业暂停扩张，开工 率降至 50%以下，库存积压严重。 TOPCon 电池是目前主流技术，占据近 80%市场份额，PERC 技术逐渐 淡出，未来 DC 电池有望成为新主流，头部企业已进行技术储备。 中国光伏电池片产能主要集中在东部沿海和四川省，江苏省以 327.6 吉 瓦位居首位，受益于经济发达、新能源需求旺盛和工业基础雄厚等优势。 2025 年中国在全球光伏产业链中占据主导地位，多晶硅、硅片、电池 产能占全球 90%~95%，组件产能占全球 83%，出口以印度、印度尼 西亚和土耳其为主要市场。 政策对光伏市场影响显著，如 2 月发布的政策促进终端需求增长，引发 抢装热潮，但需求透支导致下半年新增装机数据大幅下降。 电池片主要以出口为主，印度是最大进口国，占全年总出口量 50.89%，其次是印度尼西亚和土耳其，这些国家依赖中国低成本、高 效率的供应链保障。 预计 2026 年光伏新增装机量将大幅下滑，受终端电力市场化交易和较 低 ...

今日周五(12月26日)亚盘时段，伦敦银目前交投于74.31一线上方，今日开盘于71.94美元/盎司，截至发 稿，伦敦银暂报74.80美元/盎司，上涨3.97%，最高触及75.13美元/盎司，最低下探71.94美元/盎司，目 前来看，伦敦银盘内短线偏向震荡走势。 据世界白银协会统计，2024年全球白银消费结构中，工业需求占比59%，珠宝首饰占18%，银币银条占 16%。工业领域中光伏需求为197.6百万盎司，占总需求约17%。光伏银浆是光伏电池的关键辅料，且当 下主流TOPCon电池单GW耗银量高于PERC电池。 另外，白银对于光伏产业而言，绝非普通原材料。它是构成光伏电池银浆的核心要素，直接关系到光电 转换效率与组件长期可靠性。当前主流PERC电池每片需消耗约80毫克白银，而更具潜力的N型TOPCon 电池用量则高达130毫克。 【最新伦敦银行情解析】 短期来看，年末至年初需警惕回调风险，重点关注65.88美元附近的关键阻力汇合区域——这个区间大 概率会成为行情拐点，可能出现涨势衰竭或短期回调。若白银能维持上行趋势，回调幅度理应受限在 51.86美元，且需实现"收盘突破上轨平行通道"，才能确认开启下一轮主升 ...

数据显示，2025年1~9月，多晶硅、硅片、电池片、组件市场价格实现稳定回升，同比年初分别增长了 31.6%、6.8%、6.5%和基本持平。同时，多晶硅、硅片产量分别同比下降32.8%、12.5%，电池片、组件 产量分别同比增长8.8%、12.2%。 "量减价增"的利好局面，并不意味着我国光伏行业已正式走出低谷。中国光伏行业协会副秘书长刘译阳 在全球BC技术创新峰会暨第14届Bifi PV Workshop上表示，事实上，我国光伏行业仍处在转型升级的攻 坚期和深度调整阶段。 面对短期内无法摆脱的"内卷"旋涡，效率更高、降本潜力更大的BC电池技术，正在被不少企业视为光 伏市场未来发展的重要方向。 BC电池转换效率拥有较大提升潜力 "效率，仍是当前市场最关键的竞争要素。"浙江爱旭太阳能科技有限公司董事长陈刚表示，多年来，业 内一直把晶硅电池的光电转换效率理论极限确定为29.4%，每一项新技术，都在努力向着这一天花板靠 近。 细数当前市场上的主流技术，PERC电池2025年量产效率超23%，已逼近24.5%的理论效率极限； TOPCon电池目前最高量产效率26.31%，距离28.7%的效率天花板仍有一定空间，且其转 ...

Core Insights - PERC (Passivated Emitter and Rear Cell) technology is a high-efficiency photovoltaic cell technology that enhances light conversion efficiency while maintaining process compatibility, making it a mainstream technology in the solar market [1][6] - The PERC battery industry in China is experiencing structural adjustments, with production expected to reach 176 GW in 2024, despite a significant drop in market share from 85% in 2023 to below 5% by the end of 2024 [1][14] - The industry is characterized by a clear and tightly coordinated supply chain, with upstream materials like silicon and silver paste, midstream cell manufacturing, and downstream integration with various solar power and energy storage applications [1][9] Industry Overview - PERC batteries utilize a passivation layer to reduce carrier recombination at the rear while maintaining local contacts for current collection, thus improving efficiency [1][6] - The industry is moving towards higher localization rates and increased concentration, with a gradual shift towards collaboration with N-type technology and greener production methods [1][9] Production and Market Dynamics - In 2024, the production of PERC batteries in China is projected to be 176 GW, indicating a continuation of scale but with structural adjustments [14] - The efficiency of PERC technology is nearing theoretical limits, leading to a significant decline in market share, yet its production remains crucial for meeting the foundational demand in the photovoltaic market [1][14] Competitive Landscape - By 2025, the domestic PERC battery industry is expected to exhibit a tiered competitive structure, with leading companies like Tongwei and Longi dominating capacity [2][16] - Despite the impact of N-type technology, leading firms are maintaining their competitive positions through capacity upgrades and cost control [2][16] Research and Analysis - The research team employs a combination of desktop research, quantitative surveys, and qualitative analysis to comprehensively assess the PERC battery industry's market capacity, supply chain, operational characteristics, profitability, and business models [2][4] - A detailed report titled "2026-2032 China PERC Battery Industry Development Dynamic Monitoring and Investment Opportunity Insight Report" has been prepared to provide critical insights for enterprises, research institutions, and investment organizations [2][23]

Summary of the Solar Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The solar photovoltaic (PV) industry in China has undergone three key phases: subsidy-driven growth, grid parity, and policy support, significantly increasing the share of renewable energy generation and domestic installed capacity [2][5][12]. Key Points and Arguments - **Market Growth and Policy Impact**: The introduction of large-scale renewable energy projects, such as the desert wind and solar base projects, has significantly boosted renewable energy generation in China [2]. - **International Market Dynamics**: The U.S. has increased its investment tax credit (ITC) to 30%, reflecting its commitment to renewable energy, despite trade barriers against Chinese products [2][6]. - **Technological Advancements**: The shift from multi-crystalline to mono-crystalline silicon has reshaped the market, with companies like LONGi Green Energy emerging as leaders. The TOPCon technology, led by JinkoSolar, is accelerating the phase-out of PERC technology [2][7][11]. - **Future Demand Projections**: By 2050, solar energy is expected to account for 50% of renewable energy generation, driven by government investment plans [2][9]. Industry Challenges - **Overcapacity and Price Wars**: The industry is currently facing challenges related to overcapacity and price wars, necessitating further policy support to stabilize prices [4][20]. - **Global Market Fluctuations**: The global PV market has seen a surge in demand since 2020, but the industry must navigate the impacts of international trade policies and competition [15][17]. Technological Developments - **Battery Technology Evolution**: The transition from PERC to TOPCon technology is significant, with companies like LONGi and Aiko leading in new battery technologies. However, the current overcapacity may hinder the profitability of these advancements [10][11][21]. - **Material Costs**: The prices of key materials such as silicon, glass, and encapsulants have risen due to increased demand and supply chain constraints [15][16]. Market Forecasts - **Installed Capacity Predictions**: Global installed capacity is projected to reach 610 GW by 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 13%. However, domestic demand may face pressure in 2026 due to policy changes [19]. - **Long-term Growth Outlook**: The solar market is expected to maintain a growth rate of 10%-15% in the coming years, with a stable domestic demand anticipated post-2026 [19]. Conclusion - The solar PV industry is poised for significant growth driven by technological advancements and supportive policies. However, challenges such as overcapacity and international trade dynamics must be addressed to ensure sustainable profitability and market stability [20].

Core Viewpoint - The two major photovoltaic giants, Longi Green Energy and JinkoSolar, have reached a "historic reconciliation" by settling their patent litigation, marking a significant shift from conflict to collaboration in the industry [1][3][4]. Group 1: Patent Litigation Background - Since early 2024, Longi Green Energy and JinkoSolar have engaged in mutual lawsuits, with each company acting as both plaintiff and defendant [2][5]. - The disputes stem from rapid technological advancements in the photovoltaic sector, with Longi leading in monocrystalline silicon wafers and high-efficiency cells, while Jinko has advantages in module integration and N-type battery technology [2][5]. - The reconciliation is seen as a means to end internal strife and foster collaboration to address global uncertainties in the market [2][6]. Group 2: Financial Performance and R&D Investment - In the first half of 2025, JinkoSolar reported revenue of 31.83 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 32.63%, while Longi Green Energy achieved revenue of 32.81 billion yuan, down 14.83% [7]. - Both companies have significantly invested in R&D, with combined expenditures reaching 14.62 billion yuan in 2023, highlighting their commitment to innovation [8]. - Longi has over 3,500 authorized patents, while Jinko has applied for more than 5,500 patents, with 75% being invention patents [8]. Group 3: Industry Implications and Future Outlook - The reconciliation sets a precedent for sustainable intellectual property partnerships in the photovoltaic industry, encouraging a healthier competitive environment [6][9]. - Both companies plan to enhance R&D efforts and accelerate the commercialization of advanced technologies, indicating a shift towards differentiated value competition rather than price wars [6][7]. - The industry is expected to recover from current low profitability cycles, with a focus on technological breakthroughs as a key driver for future growth [8][9].

Core Insights - The photovoltaic and wind power industries are rapidly transforming the global energy landscape, with solar power costs dropping over 90% in the past decade, making it the most competitive clean energy source [1] - Innovations such as PERC cells, heterojunction technology, and perovskite cells are driving continuous breakthroughs in photovoltaic conversion efficiency [1] - The integration of digital technologies is becoming a core support for the large-scale application of renewable energy [3] Photovoltaic Industry - Distributed solar power is turning urban rooftops into micro power stations, while household systems are promoting energy independence in rural areas [1] - Large solar power bases in desert areas are creating a complete industrial chain from technology research and development to end-user applications [1] Wind Power Industry - The onshore wind turbine capacity has surpassed 6 megawatts, and offshore models are advancing beyond 10 megawatts [3] - Smart control systems enable wind turbines to sense wind speed and automatically adjust, maximizing wind energy capture [3] - The maturity of floating offshore wind technology is extending development into deep-sea areas [3] Digital Integration - AI algorithms are optimizing solar panel angles in real-time, increasing efficiency by 12% in Qinghai's solar industry park [3] - Virtual power plant platforms in Germany aggregate thousands of households' solar and storage devices for electricity trading [3] - China's State Grid's new energy cloud platform connects the largest scale of renewable energy station data globally, controlling generation prediction errors within 3% [3] Impact on Internet Industry - Data centers, which account for 2% of global electricity consumption, are exploring sustainable energy solutions [4] - Microsoft is submerging data centers underwater for cooling, while Google is building wind-powered data centers in Northern Europe [4] - China's "East Data West Computing" project is positioning computing centers in areas rich in wind and solar resources [4]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the ongoing patent wars in the photovoltaic (PV) industry, emphasizing the shift from an incremental growth phase to a competitive landscape where companies are focusing on retaining advanced production capacity and eliminating outdated capacity. Patents are seen as a crucial tool in this "anti-involution" strategy [1]. Group 1: Patent Litigation Overview - The patent litigation between JinkoSolar and LONGi Green Energy is highlighted as a significant ongoing conflict in the PV sector, with a need to assess the patent situations of the top 10 companies in terms of module shipments [3]. - Since 2019, the patent wars in the PV industry have been continuous, with only two companies, GCL-Poly and Hengdian East Magnetic, not involved in any patent litigation [3]. - Tongwei Co., while rapidly rising in the top 10, has had minimal patent litigation exposure, primarily due to its dual leadership in silicon materials and cells [3]. Group 2: Patent Application Statistics - Trina Solar leads in patent applications with 7,219 patents, followed by JinkoSolar and LONGi Green Energy in second and third places, respectively [7]. - Canadian Solar, despite facing multiple patent infringement lawsuits, has a substantial patent application count of 4,669, placing it among the top tier of PV companies [7]. - GCL-Poly has a relatively low patent application count, while Hengdian East Magnetic has over 3,700 patents, but only 681 are related to PV technology, making it the lowest among the top 10 [7]. Group 3: Patent Validity and Status - LONGi Green Energy holds the highest number of valid patents at 3,900, while Trina Solar has 3,448 valid patents, and JinkoSolar has 2,449 [10]. - The analysis shows that Yida New Energy has the lowest percentage of expired patents at 3%, while GCL-Poly and Canadian Solar have high expiration rates of 40% and 32%, respectively [10]. - The proportion of pending patents indicates that Trina Solar has over 33% pending, while Hengdian East Magnetic and JinkoSolar have around 30% [10]. Group 4: Patent Types and Quality - JinkoSolar and Trina Solar have the highest number of invention patents, with JinkoSolar's invention patents making up 70% of its total applications [12]. - GCL-Poly's patent applications are primarily domestic, with minimal international presence, indicating a focus on the domestic market [17]. - GCL-Poly has a total of 1,138 patent applications, with 519 being valid, but a significant number of low-value patents have been abandoned or rejected [19]. Group 5: Legal Events and Patent Management - GCL-Poly has engaged in various legal events related to its patents, including transfers and acquisitions, indicating active management of its patent portfolio [25]. - Hengdian East Magnetic has also seen significant patent pledges, with over 75 patents pledged for financing, reflecting a strategic approach to leveraging its patent assets [38]. - The company has a relatively high number of invention patents, with 445 out of 681 total patents, indicating a focus on high-quality innovations [35]. Group 6: Strategic Insights and Recommendations - Both GCL-Poly and Hengdian East Magnetic have lower overall patent strengths compared to leading companies like JinkoSolar and LONGi Green Energy, which may impact their competitive positioning [42]. - GCL-Poly's strategy of acquiring external patents could enhance its litigation capabilities, while Hengdian East Magnetic's effective maintenance of patent validity is crucial for future legal defenses [42]. - The article suggests that PV companies should enhance innovation and proactively manage patent risks to minimize litigation exposure [45].

Group 1 - The company's stock price on August 7 was 42.60 yuan, down 0.60 yuan from the previous trading day, representing a decline of 1.39% [1] - The trading volume on that day was 57,250 hands, with a transaction amount of 245 million yuan [1] - The company specializes in the research, production, and sales of photovoltaic cells, including PERC and TOPCon cells, and has a production base in Hainan [1] Group 2 - On August 7, the net outflow of main funds was 37.1452 million yuan, with a cumulative net outflow of 98.5338 million yuan over the past five trading days [1] - The current total market value of the company is 12.464 billion yuan, and the circulating market value is 9.579 billion yuan [1]

Group 1 - The stock price of Yicheng Photovoltaic closed at 3.70 yuan on July 31, down 0.25 yuan, a decrease of 6.33% from the previous trading day [1] - The trading volume on that day was 1.652 million hands, with a transaction amount of 616 million yuan [1] - Yicheng Photovoltaic's main business includes the research, production, and sales of photovoltaic cells and modules, operating in the photovoltaic equipment industry [1] Group 2 - The company has two major production bases located in Changzhou and Chuzhou, with primary products including PERC cells and TOPCon cells [1] - On July 31, the company announced that its controlling shareholder, Weizhi Energy, had 200 million unrestricted circulating shares auctioned, with 50 million shares sold for 152 million yuan [1] - If the shareholding change is completed, Weizhi Energy's shareholding ratio will decrease from 16.90% to 12.67% [1] Group 3 - In the first quarter of 2025, the company achieved an operating income of 608 million yuan, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of a loss of 53.14 million yuan [1] - On July 31, the net outflow of main funds was 97.1847 million yuan, accounting for 2.22% of the circulating market value [1]