1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report provides daily views and evaluations of various futures contracts, covering multiple sectors such as finance, metals, energy, chemicals, and agricultural products, and gives corresponding operation suggestions based on market conditions [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Selected Views - NI2601 is expected to be weakly volatile [3]. - L2601 (LLDPE) is expected to be weakly volatile [3]. - rb2501 (coking coal) is expected to rebound from the bottom [3]. - M2605 (soybean meal) is expected to be weakly volatile [3]. 3.2 Full - Variety Daily Reviews 3.2.1 Financial Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: Due to weak economic data in November, the stock index continued to trade in a shrinking - volume range. There is no clear upward trend, and the market lacks a dominant theme. It is advisable to be cautious about the risk of chasing highs in the trading range and appropriately lay out bull spreads at low levels [3]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The bond market is still insensitive to economic data. In the absence of allocation demand, ultra - long bonds are weak. The upper limit of the 10 - year yield is not expected to deviate significantly from 1.85%. T2603 should pay attention to the support around 107.6. In the short term, it is advisable to wait and see, and consider the market as a narrow - range fluctuation. For the spot - futures strategy, pay attention to the positive arbitrage and basis widening opportunities of the 2603 contract [3]. - **Precious Metal Futures**: Gold needs to build momentum to break through the previous high. Pay attention to the impact of US economic data and Fed officials' statements on market sentiment. Buy gold below $4,300. Silver may enter the overbought zone, so it is recommended to wait and see. For platinum and palladium, operate based on the external market, buy on dips, or use out - of - the - money call options instead of long positions, and control positions [3]. 3.2.2 Commodity Futures Metals - **Steel and Iron Ore**: Iron ore is expected to be weakly volatile in the range of 730 - 780. Consider the opportunity to expand the ratio of rebar to iron ore as iron water production drops. Go long on the January rebar - to - iron ore ratio [3]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Coking coal is expected to trade in the range of 1,000 - 1,150, and consider a 1 - 5 reverse spread. Coke is expected to trade in the range of 1,450 - 1,600, and consider a 1 - 5 reverse spread [3]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: For copper, hold long - term long positions and pay attention to the support at 90,000 - 91,000. For aluminum, the main contract is expected to trade in the range of 21,700 - 22,400, and go long on dips. For zinc, pay attention to the support at 23,000 - 23,200 and continue to hold the cross - market reverse arbitrage. For tin, hold previous long positions and buy on dips. For nickel, the main contract is expected to trade in the range of 110,000 - 118,000. For stainless steel, the main contract is expected to trade in the range of 12,200 - 12,800 [3]. Energy and Chemicals - **Petrochemicals**: PX is expected to be volatile at a high level in the short term. PTA is expected to be volatile at a high level in the short term, and pay attention to the low - level positive spread opportunity for TA5 - 9. For short - fiber, the processing fee is mainly compressed, and the operation is the same as PTA. For bottle - grade polyester, the inventory decline supports the processing fee, and pay attention to the device restart and production progress. For ethanol, sell EG2605 - C - 4100 to obtain time value [3]. - **Other Chemicals**: For natural rubber, the price is expected to trade in a range, and it is advisable to wait and see. For synthetic rubber, due to the strengthening of the cost side, BR has risen strongly, and sell BR2602 - C - 11200 at high prices [3]. Agricultural Products - **Grains and Oils**: For soybeans and soybean meal, the US soybeans have no bright spots, and pay attention to China's soybean customs clearance policy. For corn, the arrival volume has increased slightly, and the price is expected to be volatile and adjust. For edible oils, the US biodiesel blending quota is undecided, which may be negative for the oil market. The main contract of palm oil may test the support at 8,200 - 8,300 [3]. - **Livestock and Poultry Products**: For pigs, the market is in a bottom - grinding phase. For eggs, pay attention to the support at the previous low. For apples, the price is expected to be volatile around 9,500 in the short term. For dates, high - sell and low - buy due to supply pressure and weak demand [3]. - **Cash Crops**: For sugar, the price is expected to be weakly volatile. For cotton, the price is expected to be strongly volatile, and pay attention to the resistance around 14,050 - 14,100 [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall agricultural market shows a mixed trend, with most varieties expected to be in a state of shock, and some varieties showing a shock - weakening trend. The future market trend depends on factors such as supply and demand, weather, policies, and international trade [1][5][6]. 3. Summary by Variety 3.1 Oils and Fats - **Viewpoint**: Yesterday, it continued to fluctuate weakly. The market is affected by factors such as concerns about US soybean export demand, favorable weather conditions in South American soybean - producing areas, and the expected release of a relatively mild and loose signal by the Federal Reserve. The market is expected to be weakly volatile, and attention should be paid to the MPOB report [5]. - **Logic**: On the macro - level, the market expects the Federal Reserve to release a relatively mild and loose signal, and the US dollar rebounded on Monday. Crude oil prices fell due to the resumption of Iraqi oil supply and the progress of Russia - Ukraine negotiations. On the industrial side, the precipitation in South American soybean - producing areas has improved recently. The domestic soybean inventory is high, and the soybean crushing volume of oil mills is large, so the de - stocking speed of domestic soybean oil is expected to be slow. For palm oil, the production in Malaysia in November is expected to decline slightly month - on - month, and the exports are expected to decline. For rapeseed oil, the domestic rapeseed supply is currently tight, but the supply is expected to increase in the later stage [5]. 3.2 Protein Meal - **Viewpoint**: The double - meal market continues to be weak. In the short term, the price of imported soybeans is expected to decline slightly, and the basis is stable. In the medium - term, the procurement progress of imported soybeans in January is 56%, mainly by the state reserve, and the performance of rapeseed meal is suppressed by the expected import of Australian rapeseed. In the long - term, the normalcy of South American weather determines the price trend and amplitude of soybean meal [6]. - **Logic**: Internationally, US soybeans are still dominated by Chinese procurement and South American weather. Domestically, in the short - term, the auction of imported soybeans is imminent, the spot price is slightly lowered, and the basis is stable. The soybean inventory is high, and the seasonal de - stocking of soybean meal is slow. In the medium - term, the procurement of imported soybeans in January is mainly by the state reserve, and the commercial procurement is absent due to crushing losses. The expected import of Australian rapeseed suppresses the performance of rapeseed meal. In the long - term, South American weather is the key factor for the price of soybean meal [6]. 3.3 Corn/Starch - **Viewpoint**: The spot price fluctuates, and the futures price continues to decline. In the short - term, it is expected to have a phased correction, and before the inventory of the middle and lower reaches is effectively repaired, the price is likely to fluctuate [1][7][8]. - **Logic**: The domestic corn price shows a differentiated trend. The prices of deep - processing enterprises in the Northeast and North China are mainly stable, with some local slight increases or decreases. The ports generally follow the futures price and continue to decline. Due to the news of regulatory reserve auctions and the futures price reaching a high - level integer mark, the market sentiment has changed, and the futures price has fallen. The increase in the willingness of grass - roots traders and drying towers to sell goods in the Northeast has led to a phased increase in the market's circulating grain sources. In North China, the inventory of deep - processing enterprises is low, and the pre - price drop has triggered the grass - roots' reluctance to sell. In the southern sales areas, the supply - demand contradiction will be alleviated to some extent in the next two weeks, and the futures price is expected to have a phased correction [1][7][8]. 3.4 Pigs - **Viewpoint**: Concerns about the epidemic drive the price to rebound. In the short - term, the price runs in a low - level range. In the long - term, the supply pressure is expected to gradually weaken, showing a pattern of "weak reality + strong expectation" [9]. - **Logic**: Recently, the epidemic has shown a trend of increasing month - on - month, but the impact is still limited year - on - year. As the curing season approaches, the market sentiment has warmed up, but the space is limited. In terms of supply, in the short - term, the completion rate of large - scale farms' slaughter in November was slightly lower than 100%, and there was a small amount of inventory carried over. In the medium - term, the production capacity of sows in the first half of 2025 was still at a high level, and the number of new - born piglets continued to increase from January to October, so the slaughter volume of commercial pigs is expected to be in excess until April 2026. In the long - term, the production capacity of sows began to decline in the third quarter of 2025, and the number of new - born piglets in November 2025 decreased month - on - month, so the supply pressure of commercial pigs is expected to ease after May 2026. In terms of demand, the ratio of pork to feed has increased month - on - month. In terms of inventory, the average slaughter weight has continued to increase month - on - month [9]. 3.5 Natural Rubber - **Viewpoint**: The sideways shock trend remains unchanged. The price is expected to continue to maintain a narrow - range shock, and it is difficult to have a trend - like market unilaterally [10][13]. - **Logic**: Yesterday, natural rubber continued to fluctuate. The 15,000 - yuan mark has certain support. At present, there is no strong driving force. The downstream buying is light recently, and the market sentiment is bearish. The impact of the recent floods in Thailand on rubber tapping is limited, and the raw material prices have dropped significantly in the past two days. Fundamentally, the overseas supply is increasing seasonally, and the firm raw material prices support the futures price to some extent, but there is still a certain downward pressure. The demand has not changed significantly in the past two weeks, and the downstream purchasing sentiment is still okay after the price drop [10][13]. 3.6 Synthetic Rubber - **Viewpoint**: The futures price maintains a shock pattern. There is no upward driving force for the time being, and there is support from natural rubber below, so the futures price maintains a range shock [14]. - **Logic**: BR continued to fluctuate yesterday. The hype sentiment about the news of butadiene exports last week has basically been digested. Considering the relatively stable recent trading volume of butadiene and the limited downward space of natural rubber prices, the BR futures price is unlikely to drop significantly for the time being. The price of butadiene has rebounded after falling. Although the production and inventory have increased, some buyers have entered the market after the price dropped to the annual low, and the trading atmosphere has improved. However, as the price rises, the enthusiasm of sellers to ship has increased, and some high - price transactions have been blocked [14]. 3.7 Cotton - **Viewpoint**: There is resistance to short - term breakthrough. In the long - term, the valuation is low, and it is expected to fluctuate strongly. It is advisable to buy on dips [15]. - **Logic**: On the supply side, the expected output of new cotton in Xinjiang is 7.3 - 7.5 million tons, an increase of 0.6 - 0.8 million tons year - on - year, and the new cotton is continuously on the market, and the cumulative inspection volume is faster than the same period in previous years. On the demand side, after the "Double 11" orders ended, the downstream demand decreased seasonally, but there is rigid procurement support. On the inventory side, due to the concentrated listing of new cotton, the commercial inventory is in the process of accumulating, and the demand for cotton is good. The speculation of warehouse receipts has boosted the 01 contract to be relatively strong recently. However, after the futures price is higher than the hedging break - even line, the enterprise's willingness to hedge increases, and the upward pressure gradually increases, suppressing the rebound height. In the long - term, the domestic market is expected to have a slight inventory accumulation or a tight balance in the new year, and as the inventory enters the de - stocking period, the upward pressure on cotton prices will be reduced [15]. 3.8 Sugar - **Viewpoint**: The lower support is strong, and the sugar price rebounds slightly. In the long - term, it is expected to fluctuate weakly. It is advisable to short on rebounds, and there is support at 5,300 yuan/ton in the short - term [16]. - **Logic**: In the long - term, the domestic and international sugar prices are likely to continue the "weakly volatile" pattern. The core logic is that the global sugar market in the 25/26 crushing season has turned to a significant surplus, with the four major sugar - producing countries of Brazil, India, Thailand, and China increasing production simultaneously, and the new supply continues to expand. After entering the new crushing season in the Northern Hemisphere, the supply is becoming a reality. In the short - term, the downward space of the 01 contract is limited, and there is strong support around 5,300 yuan/ton, but in the long - term, the sugar price is still under pressure [16]. 3.9 Pulp - **Viewpoint**: After reaching the pressure level, it falls back, and the wide - range shock pattern continues. The futures price is expected to show a wide - range shock with a slightly rising trend. It is advisable to allocate more on dips and wait and see at high levels [16][17]. - **Logic**: Last week, the pulp futures price rose rapidly from the bottom of the range to near the top. In the recent three trading days, it has continued to fall. There were some positive news during the rise, such as the increase in the US dollar - denominated price, the shutdown of pulp mills, and the significant decline in port inventory. The current game point is whether the new positive factors can boost the price to effectively break through the upper edge of the shock range. Fundamentally, the price increase of broad - leaf pulp can be passed on downstream, and the narrowing of the price difference between needle - leaf and broad - leaf pulp supports the bottom of the needle - leaf pulp and the futures price. The supply reduction expectation caused by the shutdown of pulp mills is offset by the high inventory of pulp mills, but the actual actions of pulp mills increase the probability of the increase in the US dollar - denominated price of needle - leaf pulp. The pressure at the upper edge of the range comes from the fact that the current futures price allows the US dollar - denominated price and the spot price to be at par or to conduct risk - free hedging on the futures market and form warehouse receipts. The liquidity of the needle - leaf pulp spot market is relatively abundant, and the sales are not smooth, which increases the possibility of warehouse receipt registration and becomes the price pressure [16][17]. 3.10 Double - Glue Paper - **Viewpoint**: The demand is weak, and the weak trend continues. In the short - term, it is mainly weakly stable, and in the medium - term, the paper enterprises may adjust the market supply and demand by reducing prices or production [18][20]. - **Logic**: Recently, the double - glue paper futures price has continued to be weak. Although the cost side has support, the demand is weak, and the implementation of the paper mills' price increase letters is very limited. At the beginning of December, some paper enterprises raised their quotes, and some dealers in the northern market followed up slightly. The paper enterprises' production is generally stable, and the inventory pressure of some paper enterprises has increased. The current publication orders have not been picked up in a concentrated manner, the social demand in the southern market is weak, and the trading atmosphere of the base paper is average, and the paper price is basically stable. The upstream wood pulp price is mainly rising, but the increase of double - glue paper is less than that of raw materials [18][20]. 3.11 Logs - **Viewpoint**: It lacks the upward momentum and fluctuates in a narrow range. The overall market pattern is loose, and it is advisable to pay attention to the opportunity of going long on the far - month contract at a low price [21]. - **Logic**: Yesterday, the log futures price rose and then fell back. The fundamentals have improved to some extent, but only provide strong support at the bottom, and the upward momentum is still lacking. Recently, the supply may be alleviated. The shipment from New Zealand declined last week, and it is expected to decline further from December to January. There is a rumor that there is a quarantine problem with Japanese cryptomeria, and attention should be paid to the follow - up development. In the domestic market, the spot price in the Jiangsu market has declined slightly, and the demand support is insufficient. The 01 contract has no clear upward or downward driving force in the short - term, and the 03 contract has relatively strong game characteristics. Considering the current low overall valuation of logs, as it gradually enters the delivery month, under the background that the weakening of the 01 contract drags down the 03 contract, it is advisable to go long on the 03 contract at a low price or consider the 1 - 3 reverse spread opportunity [21].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report Core Views - The pulp futures market is expected to maintain a volatile pattern in the short - term and has the potential for a central upward shift in the long - term [3]. - The stock index futures are expected to fill the previous gap around 3930 after today's adjustment. It is recommended to treat it as a volatile market and focus on high - selling and low - buying [10]. - Gold is in a complex volatile process and is expected to continue for some time. It is not advisable to chase up or sell down [15]. - Iron ore is in the process of finding a bottom with weak domestic demand support. It should be viewed with a wide - range volatile mindset and high - selling and low - buying [17]. - Glass showed a tendency to weaken after rising and falling today. It can be viewed as volatile and bearish [19]. - Methanol prices have risen by over 5% this week. Multiple factors support the market, and investors should seize long - position opportunities [23]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Pulp - On December 2nd, the pulp main contract rose 2.62% to 5272 yuan/ton, with a maximum increase of over 3%. In the short - term, the rise is due to capital games caused by insufficient deliverable goods rather than fundamental improvement. Currently, domestic port inventory is 217.2 tons, with high coniferous pulp inventory and weak demand. Although broad - leaf pulp supply is tight and prices are supported by external costs, overall supply - demand improvement is limited, and prices are unlikely to rise unilaterally. In the long - term, overseas new pulp production capacity will be limited in 2026, and there are plans for production cuts and conversions. European demand recovery may reduce imports to China, while domestic finished paper production capacity expansion will increase marginal pulp demand. The current pulp price is undervalued, and the price center is expected to rise. Attention should be paid to port de - stocking progress and the implementation effect of downstream finished paper price increases [3][5][6]. - As of November 27, 2025, the inventory of mainstream Chinese pulp ports was 217.2 tons, a decrease of 0.1 tons compared to the previous period, a 0.05% month - on - month decrease. The inventory trend showed a slight de - stocking, and Changshu Port showed an inventory accumulation trend. The futures market has been volatile recently [25]. Stock Index Futures - After today's adjustment, it is expected to fill the previous gap around 3930. It is recommended to treat it as a volatile market and focus on high - selling and low - buying [10]. Gold - Gold is in a complex volatile process and is expected to continue for some time. It is not advisable to chase up or sell down [15]. Iron Ore - With the commissioning of the Simandou project, the expectation of a loose supply has further fermented. On the demand side, except for exports, the real estate and infrastructure sectors are still in the process of finding a bottom, and domestic demand support is weak. Technically, it should be viewed with a wide - range volatile mindset and high - selling and low - buying [17][18]. Glass - It rose and then fell today, showing a tendency to weaken. It can be viewed as volatile and bearish. The daily melting volume has declined, and de - stocking started this week, mainly driven by policy - side stimulus and anti - involution policies for supply - side clearance [19][20]. Methanol - This week, the price has risen by over 5%. Multiple factors support the market, including a sharp decline in coastal sample port inventory, supply disruptions due to concentrated gas restrictions and shutdowns of Iranian plants, and the linkage effect of active port trading sentiment. Investors should seize long - position opportunities [23].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - Domestic stock index futures show strong resilience, with overall volatility decreasing and waiting for stabilization. After the report release, the A - share market is in a repricing adjustment, with common short - term phased corrections and rebounds and limited downside risks. [3] - The yield of the 10 - year active treasury bond hits resistance when dropping to around 1.8%. In the short term, lacking further drivers, the bond market may continue to fluctuate narrowly. [3] - The gold price seeks to stabilize around $4000 (925 yuan) after a correction. It is recommended to buy on dips and sell out - of - the - money put options. The silver price follows gold, with support around $49 (11800 yuan), and it is advisable to try long positions on dips. [3] - The main contract of the container shipping index (European line) fluctuates and declines, with a short - term upward trend expected. [3] - For various commodities, different trends and trading strategies are proposed based on their supply - demand situations, inventory conditions, and market factors. [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Financial - **Stock Index Futures**: The entire stock index series experiences a correction, while the technology sector rises against the trend. It is recommended to mainly wait and see. If there is a deep decline in a single day, a bull put spread of put options can be arranged. [3] - **Treasury Bonds**: The money market tightens in the short term, and the bond market fluctuates narrowly. For the TL2512 contract, the fluctuation range is expected to be between 115.8 - 116.7, and an interval trading strategy is recommended. [3] - **Precious Metals**: The market liquidity is tight, and the US stocks decline continuously. Precious metals hit the bottom and rebound during the session. Gold is recommended to be bought on dips, and out - of - the - money put options can be sold. Silver is recommended to try long positions on dips. [3] Black - **Steel**: There is a differentiation in the inventory of iron and carbon elements. It is recommended to hold the arbitrage of going long on coking coal and short on hot - rolled coils and stay on the sidelines for single - side trading. [3] - **Iron Ore**: Shipments increase, arrivals decrease, port stocks rise, and pig iron production rebounds. The iron ore price fluctuates, and it is recommended to stay on the sidelines with a reference interval of 750 - 800. [3] - **Coking Coal**: The price of coking coal at the origin shows mixed trends, and the price of Mongolian coal drops. Steel mills' production cuts are negative for restocking demand. It is viewed as bearish with a reference interval of 1100 - 1250. [3] - **Coke**: The fourth round of price increases for coke is fully implemented, but the port trading price drops. It is viewed as bearish with a reference interval of 1600 - 1750. [3] Non - ferrous - **Copper**: The market sentiment is cautious, and the copper price fluctuates. The main contract reference range is 85000 - 87000. [3] - **Aluminum**: The aluminum price corrects with a reduction in positions. Attention should be paid to the subsequent improvement of the fundamentals. The main contract reference range is 21200 - 21800, and if the positions continue to decrease, there is still downward room in the short term. [3] - **Other Non - ferrous Metals**: Different trends and trading strategies are proposed for zinc, tin, nickel, stainless steel, and other non - ferrous metals based on their supply - demand and market conditions. [3] New Energy - **Polysilicon**: The demand is weak, and the polysilicon futures decline with fluctuations. The price fluctuation range is 50000 - 58000. [3] - **Lithium Carbonate**: The difference between long and short positions widens, and the market sentiment is adjusted. The market fluctuates widely, and it is recommended to wait and see. [3] Chemical - **PX**: The positive support is limited, and PX fluctuates in the short term. It should be treated as fluctuating at a high level between 6600 - 6900 in the short term. [3] - **PTA**: The supply - demand expectation is weak, and the rebound of PTA is under pressure. It fluctuates in the 4500 - 4800 interval in the short term, and a rolling reverse arbitrage of TA1 - 5 is recommended. [3] - **Other Chemical Products**: Different trends and trading strategies are proposed for short - fiber, bottle - grade chips, ethylene glycol, benzene, styrene, and other chemical products based on their supply - demand and market conditions. [3] Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal**: The crushing data is excellent, and US soybeans turn strong. Attention should be paid to the support around 3000 for the M01 contract. [3] - **Live Hogs**: The reluctance to sell sentiment rises, and the spot price shows signs of stabilization. A 3 - 7 reverse arbitrage should be held. [3] - **Other Agricultural Products**: Different trends and trading strategies are proposed for corn, palm oil, raw sugar, cotton, eggs, apples, dates, etc. based on their supply - demand and market conditions. [3]

Report Overview - Report Date: October 17, 2025 - Report Cycle: Daily Report - Research Variety: Manganese Silicon - Research Analyst: An Zhiyuan 1. Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. 2. Core View - On October 16, the manganese silicon futures market showed an overall volatile pattern. In the short term, the manganese silicon futures will maintain a weak volatile pattern, mainly restricted by supply - demand contradictions and market sentiment. Weak steel mill demand and rising inventory pressure have led to a lack of upward momentum in the market. The decline in trading volume indicates insufficient market participation, and it is difficult to form a trending market in the short term. Attention can be paid to the results of steel tenders and the actual procurement situation of steel mills to judge whether the short - term price will rebound [13]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market 3.1.1 Contract Market - On October 16, the manganese silicon SM2601 contract showed a volatile upward trend. The daily session opened at 5,734 yuan/ton, with a maximum price of 5,786 yuan/ton, a minimum price of 5,720 yuan/ton, a closing price of 5,754 yuan/ton, and a settlement price of 5,758 yuan/ton. The closing price decreased by 12 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The full - day trading volume was 129,115 lots, and the open interest was 374,285 lots [2]. 3.1.2 Variety Price - The prices of the 12 futures contracts showed a contango market pattern with near - term prices lower than far - term prices. The prices of each contract fluctuated differently throughout the day. The total open interest of the variety was 574,082 lots, a decrease of 978 lots compared with the previous trading day. Among them, the open interest of the active contract manganese silicon SM2601 increased by 1,983 lots [2]. 3.1.3 Related Market - On October 16, the overall volatility of the manganese silicon options market was relatively large. The open interest of the call options of the manganese silicon main contract was 34,191 contracts, the open interest of the put options was 30,235 contracts, and the open interest PCR was 0.884 [5]. 3.2 Spot Market 3.2.1 Basis Data - On October 16, the basis of the active contract manganese silicon 2601 was - 54 yuan/ton, which was wider than that of the previous day [7]. 3.2.2 Registered Warehouse Receipts - On October 16, the total number of registered warehouse receipts for manganese silicon was 48,976, a decrease of 780 compared with the previous trading day [8]. 3.3 Influencing Factors 3.3.1 Industry News - Mysteel surveyed 83 independent silicomanganese enterprises (accounting for 71.6% of the national surveyed production capacity): The average inventory of manganese ore in factories nationwide was 14.1 days, a month - on - month increase of 0.1 days. Among them, the average in Guangxi was 7.3 days (an increase of 0.3), in Guizhou was 11.3 days (an increase of 0.6), in Inner Mongolia was 19 days (a decrease of 0.3), in Ningxia was 15.3 days (a decrease of 0.3), in Shanxi was 9.7 days (an increase of 0.4), in Shaanxi was 8.7 days (unchanged), in Sichuan and Chongqing was 24.3 days (an increase of 0.5), and in Yunnan was 21.7 days (an increase of 1) [9][10]. 3.3.2 Technical Analysis - On October 16, the main contract 2601 of manganese silicon showed a volatile upward trend and finally closed with a small positive line. Technically, the manganese silicon price formed a short - term support around 5,700 yuan/ton, but the upward pressure was obvious. In particular, the level of 5,800 yuan/ton was not effectively broken through, limiting the upward momentum [11].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry - wide investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Bean Meal**: It is expected to show a large - range oscillation. The domestic soybean and bean meal are in the inventory - accumulation stage until the end of September, with the inventory - accumulation speed in August expected to slow down compared to July. The Sino - US trade tariff is the key cost support for bean meal. After the latest Sino - US negotiation result, the original tariff rate is maintained and extended for 90 days. Under the cost - support expectation, the domestic bean meal price rebounded. With the combination of weak fundamentals and cost support, it presents a large - range market [1][2][3]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: It is expected to have a large - range oscillation. The global rapeseed output has recovered year - on - year, but there is dry soil moisture in some areas of Canadian rapeseed. The domestic rapeseed and rapeseed meal inventories of oil mills are decreasing month - on - month, but still at a relatively high level year - on - year. From July to September, the rapeseed import decreased significantly year - on - year, and the 100% import tariff on Canadian rapeseed meal and the strength of old - crop Canadian rapeseed support the price, while the improving import profit of Canadian rapeseed exerts upward pressure. The low spot price difference between bean meal and rapeseed meal reduces the feed addition of rapeseed meal. Yesterday, rapeseed meal followed the price of bean meal and continued to rebound [1][4][6]. - **Palm Oil**: Be cautious about chasing long positions. After a series of previous positive factors, the market lacks more positive drivers, and Malaysian palm oil may return to the July supply - demand fundamentals. Based on the production and export data from the first 25 days of July, there is a possibility of inventory accumulation in July. In the next one to two weeks, the price may need to adjust, and opportunities to go long after the price stabilizes can be considered [1][7][9]. - **Cotton**: Be cautiously bearish. The soil moisture in the main cotton - producing areas of the US has slightly deteriorated, but the new cotton growth is still good. The weekly export has weakened significantly, suppressing the upward movement of the market. In China, the actual sown area and yield per unit of new cotton have increased, pushing up the guaranteed output. The commercial inventory is decreasing rapidly, but the replenishment of downstream finished products has slowed down recently, weakening the cotton - using expectation. The orders of textile enterprises have reached a five - year low, and the operating rate is gradually decreasing. The negative feedback of demand on the inventory - reduction logic is gradually reflected in the market [1][10][13]. - **Red Dates**: Be cautiously bearish. The growth of new - season jujube trees is relatively good. The market previously expected a significant decline in production due to the "alternate - bearing" phenomenon, but there are no obvious signs of significant production reduction in the second and third - crop fruit - setting in the producing areas. The self - regulatory statement of some enterprises in the industry is difficult to promote widely. With weak fundamentals, there is great pressure for the price to rise after filling the gap. Opportunities to short at high prices after the price rebounds driven by macro - sentiment can be considered [1][15][16]. - **Live Pigs**: Be cautiously bullish. The risk of second - fattening selling has been realized, and the accelerated short - term slaughter rhythm has pushed down the price of live pigs. However, considering the short - term rebound of the price difference between standard and fat pigs, there is still some enthusiasm in the second - fattening link, making it difficult for the near - month contracts to break through downward. The fact of medium - and long - term over - capacity remains unchanged. Attention should be paid to whether the subsequent capacity reduction can boost the far - month price. For near - month contracts, short positions can consider gradually taking profits, and for far - month contracts, long positions can be established at low prices after the spot price stabilizes [1][17][19]. 3. Summaries by Variety Bean Meal - **Inventory**: As of July 25, 2025, the national port soybean inventory was 8.085 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 106,000 tons; the soybean inventory of 125 oil mills was 6.4559 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 33,500 tons; the bean meal inventory was 1.0431 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 44,700 tons. The physical inventory days of domestic feed enterprises' bean meal were 8.19 days, a week - on - week decrease of 0.07 days [3]. - **Price**: The futures price (main contract daily closing) of bean meal was 3,010 yuan/ton, a day - on - day increase of 27 yuan or 0.91%. The national average spot price was 2,969.71 yuan/ton, a day - on - day increase of 36.28 yuan or 1.24% [2]. Rapeseed Meal - **Inventory**: As of July 25, the coastal area's main oil mills' rapeseed inventory was 137,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 25,000 tons; the rapeseed meal inventory was 19,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 7,000 tons; the unexecuted contracts were 54,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 22,000 tons. The total rapeseed meal inventory in the main regions of the country was 665,400 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 13,300 tons [6]. - **Price**: The futures price (main contract daily closing) of rapeseed meal was 2,735 yuan/ton, a day - on - day increase of 75 yuan or 2.82%. The national average spot price was 2,698.42 yuan/ton, a day - on - day increase of 85.26 yuan or 3.26% [4]. Palm Oil - **Inventory**: As of July 25, 2025, the commercial inventory of palm oil in key national regions was 615,500 tons, a week - on - week increase of 24,100 tons or 4.08%, and a year - on - year increase of 108,800 tons or 21.47% [9]. - **Price**: The futures price (main contract daily closing) of palm oil was 8,982 yuan/ton, a day - on - day increase of 12 yuan or 0.13%. The national average price was 9,063 yuan/ton, a day - on - day increase of 58 yuan or 0.64% [7]. Cotton - **Production**: In China, the new cotton in Xinjiang has entered the boll - setting stage, with a flowering rate of over 90%. The high - temperature weather in Xinjiang will significantly ease this week, and the probability of re - hyping high - temperature factors is low. The seedling conditions in each main producing area are better than last year, and the national average yield per unit is expected to increase by 2.5% year - on - year, with the output expected to reach over 7.4 million tons [12]. - **Inventory**: The industrial and commercial inventory of domestic cotton decreased by 151,900 tons to 3.1626 million tons, lower than the same period last year by 37,600 tons. The inventory of pure - cotton yarn and grey cloth continued to accumulate and was higher than last year, but the inventory - accumulation speed slowed down significantly this week [12]. - **Price**: The main contract of Zhengzhou cotton, CF2509, decreased by 1.89% during the day, closing at 13,755 yuan/ton. The domestic spot price remained stable at 15,558 yuan/ton [10][11]. Red Dates - **Production**: The new - season jujube trees are growing well. The market previously expected a significant decline in production, but the actual situation shows that the production reduction may be within 10%, lower than the previous expectation [15][16]. - **Inventory**: According to Mysteel's research data, the physical inventory of 36 sample points this week was 10,090 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 230 tons, higher than the same period last year by 4,422 tons, and the inventory - reduction speed has accelerated compared to the previous four weeks [15]. - **Price**: The main contract of red dates, CJ2601, increased by 0.65% during the day, closing at 10,805 yuan/ton [14][15]. Live Pigs - **Inventory and Output**: The national sample enterprises' live - pig inventory was 3.71993 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 11,520 tons or 0.31%; the live - pig output was 1.12559 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 16,770 tons or 1.51%. The national inventory of breeding sows was 4.043 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1,000 tons or 0.02% [17]. - **Price**: The main contract of live pigs, Lh2509, decreased by 0.49% during the day, closing at 14,075 yuan/ton. The domestic live - pig spot price decreased by 0.14% to 14,210 yuan/ton [17][18].

Group 1: Agricultural Futures Market Overview - The soybean market is experiencing low prices due to reduced demand and limited trading activity, with the 09 contract facing resistance at 4235 - 4250 CNY/ton and support at 4080 - 4100 CNY/ton [1] - The peanut market is under pressure from increased planting areas in Henan, Jilin, and Liaoning, with the 10 contract support at 8004 - 8020 CNY and resistance at 8380 - 8392 CNY [1] - The soybean oil market is seeing a decline in prices due to weak demand and sufficient supply, with the 09 contract facing resistance at 8100 - 8130 CNY and support at 7830 - 7850 CNY/ton [1] Group 2: Oilseed and Meal Markets - The canola oil market is affected by falling crude oil prices and increased domestic supply, with the 09 contract support at 9210 - 9320 CNY and resistance at 9600 - 9790 CNY [1] - The palm oil market is experiencing adjustments due to rising inventories and reduced export demand, with support at 8200 - 8210 CNY and resistance at 8566 - 8592 CNY [1] - The soybean meal market is seeing a weak domestic fundamental outlook, with the 09 contract resistance at 3100 - 3150 CNY and support at 2880 - 2900 CNY/ton [1] Group 3: Corn and Livestock Markets - The corn market is under pressure from increased supply and import auction focus, with the 09 contract support at 2330 - 2340 CNY and resistance at 2430 - 2450 CNY [1] - The live pig market is experiencing increased supply, with the 09 contract reference range at 13600 - 14200 points [1] - The egg market is seeing a potential rebound after a low, with strategies suggested for the 08 contract [1]

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing Russia-Ukraine negotiations have not diminished the bullish sentiment in the gold market, indicating continued interest and potential opportunities in commodity trading [1] Group 1 - The live analysis by senior futures researcher Leo focuses on the current market trends for gold and other popular futures commodities [1] - Insights will be provided on the fundamental aspects of these commodities and their future price movements [1]

Group 1: Industrial Silicon Futures Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View The industrial silicon futures price is in a weak downward trend, and the price will continue to be under pressure. It is recommended to wait and see [7][8][11] Summary by Directory - **Mid - term Market Analysis**: As of April 18, 2025, the industrial silicon market showed a weak consolidation trend. Both futures and spot prices declined. Futures inventory slightly increased, and social inventory decreased. Supply and demand were both weak, and market sentiment was pessimistic. The AI intelligent investment consultation variety diagnosis report of Great Wall Futures showed that the daily line of industrial silicon prices was in a downward channel. It was recommended to wait and see as the price was seeking bottom support and would continue to be pressured [7][8] - **Variety Trading Strategy**: Last week, it was recommended to wait and see during the stage of shock seeking bottom support. This week, due to the difficult - to - change situation of weak supply and demand, the price will continue to be under pressure, and it is still recommended to wait and see [11] - **Related Data Situation**: As of April 19, 2024, the SHF cathode copper inventory was 300,045 tons, an increase of 322 tons from the previous week, and was at a relatively high level compared to the past five years. The LME copper inventory was 122,125 tons, and the注销仓单 (unregistered warehouse receipts) ratio was 25.73%, at a relatively low level compared to the past five years. The multi - empty flow was - 8.9 with no obvious inclination, the capital energy was basically stable at 12.0 days, and the multi - empty divergence was 99.4 with high risk of market change [14][16][21] Group 2: Lithium Carbonate Futures Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View The lithium carbonate futures price runs in a weak oscillation. For the lithium carbonate 2507 contract, it is recommended to pay attention to the operating range of 68,000 - 73,000 and consider the large - grid trading strategy [29][30][33] Summary by Directory - **Mid - term Market Analysis**: As of April 18, 2025, the domestic battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5%) market price was concentrated at 70,000 - 71,000 yuan/ton, with an average price of 70,500 yuan/ton; the industrial - grade lithium carbonate (99.0%) market price was concentrated at 68,500 - 69,500 yuan/ton, with an average price of 69,000 yuan/ton. The upstream lithium salt plants had a weak buying sentiment and mainly digested inventory. Holders were reluctant to cut prices. Affected by Sino - US tariff issues, downstream demand was uncertain. The supply surplus in the lithium carbonate spot market still existed, and the supply - demand situation did not change significantly. Technically, the AI variety diagnosis report of Great Wall Futures showed that the daily line of lithium carbonate futures was basically in a downward channel. The operating range of lithium carbonate 2507 was 68,000 - 73,000 [29][30] - **Variety Trading Strategy**: Last week, it was suggested to wait and see as the lithium carbonate 2505 contract might further bottom out. This week, it is recommended to pay attention to the 68,000 - 73,000 operating range of lithium carbonate 2507 and consider the large - grid trading strategy [33] - **Related Data Situation**: As of April 19, 2024, the SHF electrolytic aluminum inventory was 228,537 tons, a decrease of 3,228 tons from the previous week, and was at a relatively low level compared to the past five years. The LME aluminum inventory was 504,000 tons, and the注销仓单 (unregistered warehouse receipts) ratio was 66.03%, also at a relatively low level compared to the past five years [35][39][41]