2025 年 8 月 26 日，马斯克把一纸 47 页诉状递到旧金山联邦法院，被告名单星光熠熠：Apple、OpenAI、Tim Cook、Sam Altman。 同一天，苹果官宣 iPhone 16 系列将搭载"Apple Intelligence 2.0"，与 OpenAI 的 GPT-5 深度捆绑。这并非巧合，而是硅谷权力版图的最新一次剧烈碰撞。 我们在 24 小时内交叉阅读了 CNBC 的英文诉讼原文与国内微信公众号"远川研究所"的长文《马斯克狙击苹果：一场事先张扬的"反垄断"》，试图还原这 场诉讼台前幕后的三重逻辑：技术路线之争、商业生态之争、监管叙事之争。 时间线复盘：从"握手"到"翻脸"仅 14 个月 2024 年 6 月：iOS 18 首次集成 ChatGPT-4o，苹果与 OpenAI 签订非排他协议。 2024 年 12 月：xAI 发布 Grok-2，马斯克公开嘲讽 Siri 为"GPT 的拙劣外壳"。 2025 年 3 月：苹果以 25 亿美元追投 OpenAI，占股 8%，并拿到董事会观察员席位。 2025 年 8 月 18 日：iOS 19 Beta 流出，系统级调用 GPT-5 ...

Core Insights - Apple's Q3 FY2025 revenue reached $94 billion, a 10% year-over-year increase, with net profit at $23.4 billion, up 9.3% [1] - The Greater China region showed significant growth, with revenue increasing by 4.4% to $15.37 billion, reversing a two-quarter decline [1] Group 1: National Subsidy Policy - Apple's CEO Tim Cook highlighted that the "National Subsidy" policy significantly supported sales in China [3] - The subsidy program, launched in late April, offers discounts up to 20% on various products, including the iPhone 16 series, iPad, Apple Watch, and Mac series, with potential savings of up to 3,000 yuan [3][5] - The Tmall Apple Store, as Apple's only direct brand store on a third-party platform, has enhanced market competitiveness following the subsidy rollout [3] Group 2: Sales Performance - The iPhone 16 Pro, after subsidy adjustments, saw its price drop to 5,499 yuan, making it one of the best-selling models during the "618" shopping festival [5] - On the first day of the Tmall 618 event, Apple's sales exceeded the total sales of the previous year's opening day within just 20 minutes, indicating strong consumer demand [6] Group 3: Strategic Implications - The collaboration with Tmall and the implementation of the subsidy policy reflect Apple's successful localization strategy in China [6][7] - Apple's ongoing investment in China aims to enhance supply chain quality and adapt to local market dynamics, which is crucial for maintaining its competitive edge [7][8] - The competitive landscape remains challenging with domestic brands like Huawei and Xiaomi innovating rapidly, necessitating Apple's continued focus on local partnerships and product innovation [7] Group 4: Consumer Benefits - The National Subsidy policy allows consumers to purchase Apple products at more attractive prices, fostering a mutually beneficial relationship between the brand and its users [9]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the company, but it indicates strong performance and positive growth trends, suggesting a favorable outlook for investors. Core Insights - Apple reported FY3Q25 revenue of $94.0 billion, exceeding market expectations of $89.2 billion, with a year-over-year growth of 9.6% and a quarter-over-quarter decline of 1.4% [1][6] - Earnings per share (EPS) was $1.57, surpassing the consensus estimate of $1.43 [1][6] - Overall gross margin was 46.5%, at the high end of guidance but down 60 basis points quarter-over-quarter, primarily due to approximately $800 million in tariff costs [1][6] - iPhone revenue reached $44.6 billion, up 13% year-over-year, with double-digit growth in emerging markets and a healthy channel inventory [2][7] - Services revenue was $27.4 billion, also up 13% year-over-year, with strong performance across both developed and emerging markets [2][8] - Management guidance for 4Q25 indicates expected revenue growth in the mid-to-high single-digit percentage range, with gross margin projected between 46% and 47% [3][9] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - FY3Q25 revenue: $94.0 billion, YoY growth: 9.6%, QoQ decline: 1.4% [1][6] - EPS: $1.57, exceeding expectations [1][6] - Overall gross margin: 46.5%, down 60 bps QoQ due to tariffs [1][6] Product Performance - iPhone revenue: $44.6 billion, YoY growth: 13%, with double-digit growth in emerging markets [2][7] - iPhone 16 series shipments grew by double digits compared to the iPhone 15 series [2][7] - Revenue in China increased by 4% QoQ, driven by subsidy programs [2][7] Services Performance - Services revenue: $27.4 billion, YoY growth: 13%, with double-digit growth in both developed and emerging markets [2][8] - U.S. App Store achieved double-digit growth, reaching an all-time high [2][8] Future Guidance - 4Q25 revenue expected to grow in the mid-to-high single-digit percentage range [3][9] - Gross margin projected between 46% and 47%, including approximately $1.1 billion in tariff costs [3][9] - Operating expenses expected to be between $15.6 billion and $15.8 billion [3][9]

Group 1 - The report highlights the significant investment opportunity in the AIDC (Artificial Intelligence Data Center) industry, driven by OpenAI's agreement to lease 4.5 GW of computing power from Oracle for approximately $30 billion annually, marking one of the largest cloud service contracts in the AI sector [1][22][25] - Alibaba Cloud is expanding its data center footprint, with plans to invest over $53 billion in cloud computing and AI infrastructure over the next three years, indicating strong growth potential in the Chinese cloud market [1][16][26] - The Chinese intelligent computing center market is projected to reach an investment scale of 288.6 billion yuan by 2028, reflecting a robust growth trajectory with a 90% year-on-year increase in 2023 [1][17][36] Group 2 - The demand for AI servers is driving upgrades in PCB (Printed Circuit Board) technology, with the global AI/HPC server PCB market expected to grow from nearly $800 million in 2023 to $1.9 billion in 2024, representing a 150% increase [1][18][19] - The report notes that AI servers require higher power specifications, leading to advancements in server power supply PCBs, which are expected to significantly outpace growth in other PCB sectors [1][5][18] - The performance enhancements in AI edge devices necessitate continuous upgrades in PCB technology, with a forecasted compound annual growth rate of 3.6% in global wearable device shipments by 2028 [1][19][36] Group 3 - The communication sector index experienced a slight decline of 0.10%, underperforming against the broader market, which saw a 1.54% increase in the CSI 300 index [3][11] - Key recommended stocks in the communication sector include China Mobile, China Telecom, and several technology firms, indicating a focus on companies that are well-positioned to benefit from the ongoing digital transformation [1][20][6] - The report emphasizes the importance of government policies in promoting the development of data centers and intelligent computing infrastructure, which are crucial for supporting the growth of AI technologies [1][28][33]

Group 1 - J.P. Morgan has lowered Apple's stock price target from $240 to $230, reflecting a cooling trend in revenue and profit expectations for the next 18 months [1] - The report indicates that early purchases to avoid U.S. tariff risks have weakened consumer upgrade desires, and the iPhone 17 series is expected to perform poorly due to limited hardware upgrades and insufficient innovation [1][3] - The forecast predicts that the production of the iPhone 17 series in 2025 will be approximately 9% lower than that of the iPhone 16 series in 2024, indicating a shift in sentiment regarding hardware growth expectations [3] Group 2 - The growth of Apple's services business is also anticipated to slow down, although further details were not provided [3] - Apple is taking a cautious approach to AI innovations, with a significant upgrade to Siri expected to launch in early 2026, marking a major shift in Apple's AI strategy [3] - Rumors suggest that a foldable iPhone may be introduced around the same timeframe, with production potentially starting in the second half of 2025 and a launch by the end of 2026, although some reports indicate a possible delay until 2027 [3]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Company and Industry Involved - **Industry**: Apple Supply Chain (Fruit Chain), PCB Industry, Optical Industry, Semiconductor Industry - **Companies Mentioned**: Apple, BYD Electronics, AAC Technologies, PCB manufacturers, etc. Core Insights and Arguments - **Tariff Impact on Fruit Chain**: The A-share market is still recovering from tariff impacts, while the fruit chain benefits from tariff adjustments. Focus should also be on new Apple product expectations and long-term AI innovations, especially with the upcoming WWDC conference potentially announcing Apple's AI strategy [1][3][4] - **Apple's Price Adjustments**: Apple has significantly reduced prices for products in China, such as the iPhone 16 series and AirPods Pro 2, which is expected to boost domestic sales but may impact profit margins [1][9] - **AI Innovations by Apple**: Apple has made progress in AI integration, including Safari AI integration and collaborations with Baidu and Alibaba in China. The release schedule for new products is expected to be more even, accelerating hardware innovation [1][10][11] - **BYD Electronics' Strategy**: BYD Electronics is circumventing tariffs through its Vietnam factory, with significant growth expected from new components for foldable devices and AI-related products [1][23][24][25] - **AAC Technologies' Recovery**: AAC Technologies has been negatively impacted by tariffs but is expected to recover with a profitable optical business and growth from iPhone 17-related revenues [1][20][21][22] Additional Important Content - **PCB Industry Performance**: The PCB industry showed strong performance in Q1 2025, driven by high demand from AI, smart driving, and consumer orders. The second quarter is expected to see further growth in performance [2][26][27] - **Tariff Changes**: The U.S. has made adjustments to tariffs on Chinese goods, with some tariffs being suspended for 90 days and others completely canceled. Continuous monitoring of semiconductor-related investigations is necessary [5][6] - **Market Reactions**: Following tariff news, Hong Kong stocks related to the fruit chain saw significant price increases, indicating market optimism about resolving tariff issues [7] - **Future Product Innovations**: Apple is expected to introduce several innovative products, including foldable iPhones and smart glasses, with a more balanced release strategy to mitigate seasonal fluctuations in the supply chain [12][14][15][17] - **AI Glasses and AR Developments**: Major companies, including Apple, are actively developing AI and AR glasses, with competitive launches expected in the near future [18][19] Recommendations - **Investment Recommendations**: Suggested stocks include Luxshare Precision, AAC Technologies, and Hengmingda, which are expected to benefit from tariff adjustments and have strong growth potential in the current market environment [13][32]

Counterpoint Research 本文为 Counterpoint 发布的 2024 年 Q4 各地区智能手机市场数据报告，如需阅读完整内容请扫描每 篇报告下方的二维码。 2024 年 Q4 全球智能手机市场总结 全球智能手机市场份额 Q2 2023 - Q4 2024 数据来源：Counterpoint Research 市场监测服务 OPPO 自 Q3 2021 起包含 OnePlus 扫码跳转 阅读全文 尽管 2024 年 Q4 全球智能手机市场整体持平，但全年仍实现 4% 的增长，主要得益于加勒 比和拉美以及欧洲市场的增长。 苹果以 23% 的市场份额领先 2024 年 Q4 全球智能手机市场，三星以 16% 的份额位居第 二。 小米排名第三，出货量同比增长 5%，而 vivo 同比增长 13%，成为 2024 年 Q4 前五大品牌 中增长最快的品牌。 OPPO 在 2024 年 Q4 出货量同比下降 3%，但在中国、拉美和西欧市场表现良好。 在 5G 细分市场，苹果以 32% 的市场份额占据全球领先地位，三星以 16% 紧随其后。 在前五大品牌中，小米以 33% 的同比增长率成为 5G 领 ...

Core Insights - The Japanese smartphone market is projected to grow by 7% year-on-year in 2024, driven by economic recovery, rising wages, and stable import prices [1][5] - Apple maintains the largest market share in Japan, with strong sales of the iPhone 16 series, although overall sales are expected to decline by 3% due to weakened demand for older models [3][5] - There is a strong demand for mid-range smartphones, benefiting brands like Xiaomi, OPPO, Sharp, and FCNT [3][5] Market Overview - The Japanese smartphone market is recovering due to stable economic growth and increased consumer spending [1][5] - The high-end market continues to grow, with Apple leading, while local brands like Sony are focusing on premium products [3][5] - The demand for affordable smartphones is driving growth for several brands, indicating a shift in consumer preferences [3][5] Future Outlook - The market is expected to continue its growth trajectory in 2025, supported by rising household incomes and economic recovery [7] - The introduction of the iPhone 16e may further boost Apple's growth in Japan [7] - However, strict regulations on smartphone subsidies by the Japanese Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications may pose challenges to growth [7]

根据 Counterpoint Research 的 《日本智能手机追踪报告》 ，受经济复苏的推动，2024 年日本智能手 机的销量同比增长了 7%。在稳定的经济增长、工资上涨以及进口价格稳定的推动下，该国的智能 手机市场正逐步复苏，这些因素也促进了消费者的支出。 2023 年 vs 2024 年日本智能手机销量及同比增长 点击阅读原文下载完整版报告 业务咨询 数据来源：Counterpoint日本智能手机追踪报告 苹果在日本智能手机市场占据最大份额，受稳定汇率的推动，iPhone 16 系列手机销量表现强劲。然 而，由于旧机型需求减弱，2024 年该品牌的整体销量同比下降了 3%。 日本智能手机销量在 2024 年同比增长 7% ，受经济复苏推动。 苹果继续领跑高端市场，但由于旧款机型需求疲软，该品牌整体销量同比下降 3% 。 中低端需求增长，推动了 Sharp 、小米和 FCNT 等品牌的表现。 受市场环境改善的支持，我们预计 2025 年日本智能手机市场将继续增长。 尽管销量下滑，苹果依然主导着高端市场。同时，随着高端市场持续增长，索尼正在加大对高端产 品的关注。 由于日本消费者持续青睐价格亲民的产品， ...

多家走访 iPhone 直营店发售现场的媒体称，今年 iPhone 16 系列二手市场溢价不及往年，只有 Pro Max 版本（尤其是沙漠色）仍有千元左右溢价。上游渠道控货、控价，天猫、京东等电商渠道截 流，以及中国消费者换机欲不强，共同影响了今年 iPhone 首发市场。 贝壳超 10 亿元在成都核心地块拿地。 据第一财经，9 月 20 日，贝好家（成都）置业有限公司经 82 轮竞拍，摘得金融城三期 H12 地块。 该地块占地约 24 亩，为纯住宅用地，容积率 2.5，限高 60 米，成交价为 10.76 亿元、折算楼面价 27300 元 / 平方米，溢价率超过 42%。贝壳在发给我们的新闻稿中说，项目初步定位是高端产品， 预计全流程由贝好家团队自主操盘，即拿地、定位、设计、营销等各环节。贝壳集团副董事长、贝 好家首席执行官徐万刚说，自主操盘一个项目，并不意味着贝好家要成为房地产开发商。 松下安排日籍员工公费回国。 据第一财经，松下将根据具体情况，为派驻中国大陆的员工及随行家属提供临时回国（公费）、设 立心理咨询窗口及灵活办公等措施，优先确保其安全和健康。早前一名日本 10 岁男童在深圳上学 途中遇刺受伤， ...