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陶冬:对于经济是否陷入衰退,美股美债产生巨大分歧
Di Yi Cai Jing· 2025-08-11 02:45
在对未来经济前景的判断上,股市债市分歧之大实属近年罕见。 关税和地缘政治充斥了上周的财经新闻。美国总统特朗普计划对半导体征收100%关税,以吸引电子企 业回流;将印度关税翻倍至50%,惩罚印度购买俄罗斯石油;美日就对日征收15%关税还是加征15%关 税摆出"罗生门"。特朗普与俄罗斯总统普京同意在阿拉斯加举行会谈。英国降息,日本央行发出今年还 有两次加息信号。美股摆脱非农数据阴影,带领全球股市向好。美债曾在就业数据发布后大涨,但之后 又吐回了部分所得。日债反而对日本央行暗示加息的反应不大。美元指数走低,黄金价格上扬。美国对 俄油二次制裁,原油价格劲挫。以太币创历史新高。 美国7月非农就业数据仅录得7.3万,震撼了市场,三个月平均就业月增仅有3.5万,更是疫情以来最差 的,一时间美国衰退论甚嚣尘上。然而,接下来一周的市场反应却出现了很大分歧。美股继续暴涨,没 有将衰退当一回事,债市则明显预计有更多的降息。同时,高收益公司债见到大量资金流入,与股票市 场站在同一战壕。 美股美债在判断美国经济是否进入衰退上,发生了严重分歧,其中只能有一个是对的。根据摩根大通的 分析报告,5年期国债收益率反映60%的衰退风险,而标普5 ...
A股半年报盘点丨181家上市公司已披露 16家公司净利润超10亿元
Di Yi Cai Jing· 2025-08-11 00:13
Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - As of August 11, 2025, a total of 181 A-share listed companies have disclosed their semi-annual reports, with 160 reporting profits and 21 reporting losses, indicating a positive trend in overall profitability in the market [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Performance - The total revenue of the 181 companies reached 1.73 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 9.08% [1]. - The total net profit amounted to 189.58 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 16.87% [1]. - Among the companies that disclosed their reports, 120 experienced an increase in net profit, while 61 saw a decline [1]. Group 2: Top Performers - In terms of revenue, two companies reported over 50 billion yuan: Industrial Fulian with 360.76 billion yuan and Yanjing Beer with 8.56 billion yuan [1]. - For net profit, two companies reported over 10 billion yuan: Industrial Fulian with 12.11 billion yuan and Yanjing Beer with 1.10 billion yuan [1]. - A total of 16 companies reported net profits exceeding 1 billion yuan, with China Mobile leading at 84.24 billion yuan, followed by CATL at 30.48 billion yuan and Industrial Fulian at 12.11 billion yuan [2]. Group 3: Growth Rates - Notably, 49 companies reported a net profit growth rate exceeding 50%, with the highest growth rates seen in Zhimingda at 2147.93%, Rongzhi Rixin at 2063.42%, and Shijia Guangzi at 1712.00% [2].
国家统计局:7月份核心CPI同比持续回升,PPI环比降幅收窄;特朗普和内塔尼亚胡讨论“接管加沙城计划”;美韩将举行联合军演 朝鲜:强烈谴责 严正警告丨早报
Di Yi Cai Jing· 2025-08-11 00:01
第一财经每日早间精选热点新闻,点击「听新闻」,一键收听。 【今日推荐】 国家统计局:7月份核心CPI同比持续回升,PPI环比降幅收窄 国家统计局城市司首席统计师董莉娟解读2025年7月份CPI和PPI数据:7月份,扩内需政策效应持续显现,居民消费价格指数(CPI)环比由上月下降0.1%转 为上涨0.4%,同比持平,扣除食品和能源价格的核心CPI同比上涨0.8%,涨幅连续3个月扩大。受季节性因素叠加国际贸易环境不确定性影响,工业生产者 出厂价格指数(PPI)环比下降0.2%,国内市场竞争秩序持续优化,环比降幅比上月收窄0.2个百分点,同比下降3.6%,降幅与上月相同。 少林寺管理处8月9日情况通报显示,近期,网上传言少林寺有30名僧人集体辞职,属不实言辞,望大家不信谣、不传谣。 特朗普和内塔尼亚胡讨论"接管加沙城计划" 当地时间8月10日,美国总统特朗普与以色列总理内塔尼亚胡通话,讨论以色列关于"接管加沙地带剩余哈马斯据点以结束军事行动"的计划。 美韩将举行联合军演 朝鲜:强烈谴责 严正警告 朝鲜国防相努光铁当地时间10日发表谈话,谴责美韩即将开始举行的"乙支自由护盾"联合军演。谈话称,美韩毫不掩饰地暴露出对朝 ...
增减持公告汇总丨这家公司股东拟合计减持不超3.94%股份
Di Yi Cai Jing· 2025-08-10 15:05
Group 1 - The controlling shareholder of Lu Wei Optoelectronics, Du Wubing, and others have committed not to reduce their holdings within six months [1] - Some shareholders of Liyang Chip plan to collectively reduce their holdings by no more than 3.94% [1] - Chuzhou Junyuan intends to reduce its holdings in Longlide by no more than 1.9% [1] Group 2 - Brad intends to reduce his holdings in Yinbao Shanneng by no more than 1.54% [1] - Shanghai Jianyuan plans to reduce its holdings in Heda Technology by no more than 1.1% [1] - Shareholder GZPA of Huizhiwei intends to reduce its holdings by no more than 1% [1] Group 3 - Specific shareholder Cai Jing of Nanjing Julong plans to reduce its holdings by 0.87% [1] - Zhongcheng Co., Ltd. intends to reduce its holdings in Funeng Energy by no more than 0.37% [1] - Ruizhi Investment and others plan to collectively reduce their holdings in Xingrui Technology by no more than 497,000 shares [1] Group 4 - General Manager Tu Yunhua of Mengjie Co., Ltd. intends to reduce his holdings by no more than 801,100 shares [1] - Vice Chairman Xu Qiang of Yuanda Holdings plans to reduce his holdings by 800,000 shares [1] - Director Meng Lingjun of Henghua Technology intends to reduce his holdings by no more than 92,800 shares [1] Group 5 - Some senior executives of Silicon Treasure Technology plan to collectively reduce their holdings by no more than 77,300 shares [1]
一财社论:不能让“按键伤人”逍遥法外
Di Yi Cai Jing· 2025-08-10 13:35
Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the urgent need to combat online violence, termed "keyboard violence," and to create a legal environment that protects individuals' rights and promotes accountability for perpetrators [2][6]. Group 1: Online Violence and Its Impact - Online violence has become a serious infringement on individuals' legal rights, as highlighted by the tragic case of a hospital director who took her own life after enduring months of online harassment [2]. - The phenomenon of "keyboard violence" is linked to a broader societal issue where individuals feel emboldened to act aggressively online due to perceived anonymity and low chances of accountability [4]. Group 2: Legal and Regulatory Framework - Establishing a legal framework that holds online platforms accountable for the content shared on their sites is crucial in mitigating online violence [3]. - The article suggests that platforms should not have excessive discretion in moderating content, as this could lead to censorship, while also emphasizing the need for them to take responsibility for user protection [3]. Group 3: Societal and Psychological Factors - The article discusses the psychological aspects of online violence, noting that individuals often vent frustrations and grievances online that they cannot express in real life, contributing to a culture of aggression [4]. - It highlights the importance of creating a legal and supportive environment that allows for the resolution of disputes and grievances both online and offline [4]. Group 4: Future Implications - The lack of accountability for online violence poses risks not only to social order but also to future industries, particularly as online behavior increasingly influences AI training and development [5]. - The article calls for a collective commitment from individuals and organizations to ensure that online violence is addressed and that the flow of legitimate information is protected [5].
贵州茅台再调查:价格场景的“变”与“不变”
Di Yi Cai Jing· 2025-08-10 12:51
来源:红星新闻 2025年,中国白酒行业在消费代际更迭与宏观经济波动下加速分化。 作为市场晴雨表的53度飞天茅台,其价格走势与销售动向持续牵动行业神经。 近日,红星新闻走访了多家线下门店以及采访多地酒商发现,尽管市场环境波动,53度飞天茅台终端价格整体平 稳,与此同时,茅台的客群与场景也在发生转变。 除了价格外,库存问题也是白酒行业关注的重点。 价格与销量:价格平稳,库存相对健康 今年以来,茅台酒市场价格相关信息备受市场关注。 8月8日,红星新闻记者从成都市区多家连锁超市、酒行了解到,目前散瓶装53度飞天茅台售价比较平稳。多地酒 商也表示,价格体系呈现区域分化但整体稳中有升的特征。 记者从河南酒商处了解到,近年来,茅台持续为经销商提供丰富的市场支持,包括品鉴会、文化推广、走进企 业、圈层拓展等活动,帮助经销商和客户强化品牌认知、拓展客群。 同时,有酒商表示,当前郑州市场飞天茅台库存处于合理区间。随着中秋旺季临近,动销有望加速,库存将进一 步回归健康。 贵州酒商表示,茅台为经销商提供一系列市场活动支持,比如开展品鉴会、文化推广活动等,助力提升品牌影响 力和产品销量。就库存水平而言,目前处于相对健康状态,没有出现 ...
AI进化速递丨国内首个隧道与地下空间领域垂直大模型发布
Di Yi Cai Jing· 2025-08-10 12:42
①因赛集团:AI"大模型+算法"双备案成功;②国内首个隧道与地下空间领域垂直大模型发布;③北京亦庄启动具身智能社会实验计划,打造全域实训场。 因赛集团:AI"大模型+算法"双备案成功 国内首个隧道与地下空间领域垂直大模型发布 北京亦庄启动具身智能社会实验计划,打造全域实训场 Interna 来 大模型+ 国赛集团: Al ■■ 国内首个隧道与地下空间领域 北京亦庄启动具身徑 ...
“去美元化”进展如何?“欧洲老钱”这么调仓
Di Yi Cai Jing· 2025-08-10 12:34
经历了近半年的关税冲击,究竟如今机构在"分散美元敞口"方面进展到哪一步了? 今年以来,"去美元化"成为全球关注的话题,美国的政策不确定性、财政可持续性顾虑导致全球机构开始考虑分散美元持仓,黄金、欧洲股市、港股等都成 为受益对象。经历了近半年的关税冲击,究竟如今机构在"分散美元敞口"方面进展到哪一步了? 塔瓦齐对记者表示,自二战以来,美国为全球秩序提供了三大支柱:经济稳定(由持续强劲的美国消费支撑)、安全保障(为欧洲和亚洲盟国提供地缘安 全)、以及高回报资产(主要由美股特别是科技巨头驱动)。在这种体系下,其他国家通过对美贸易顺差积累资金,并将这些资金重新投资于美国市场,形 成了一个被称为"布雷顿森林体系2.0"的非正式全球资本循环机制。然而,随着美国财政问题的加剧,"无风险利率"这一概念开始受到质疑,体系的稳定性 也面临挑战。 他还指出,外国投资者持有32%(19万亿美元)的美股和35%(13万亿美元)的美债,是美国金融体系的重要资金来源。 标普500在MSCI国际指数中的权重 从2010年的50%上升至如今的72%,反映出美股长期的优异表现。 但由于亚洲的结构性崛起以及地缘经济挑战,这种主导地位在未来十年可能 ...
外资银行调整零售布局:压缩在华普通网点规模,发力高端财富管理
Di Yi Cai Jing· 2025-08-10 12:34
Core Insights - Foreign banks in China are rapidly adjusting their retail business strategies, closing over 10 branches while opening flagship branches and wealth management centers in major cities [1][2][4] - The shift towards high-end retail and cross-border wealth management is seen as a new growth engine for foreign banks amid increasing competition in the local market [1][4] Group 1: Branch Adjustments - More than 10 foreign banks have closed branches in mainland China since the beginning of the year, indicating a trend of continuous network contraction [2] - HSBC China has closed 9 branches this year, with over half located in Guangdong province, while Standard Chartered has also reduced its traditional physical branch scale [2][5] - In contrast, foreign banks are accelerating the establishment of flagship branches and private wealth management centers in core cities, focusing on high-net-worth clients [2][3] Group 2: Wealth Management Focus - Standard Chartered plans to invest $1.5 billion over the next five years to expand its wealth management services, targeting affluent clients' needs for diversified investments and wealth inheritance [3][5] - The wealth management market in China is experiencing structural growth, driven by the expansion of the middle-income group and increasing demand for wealth management services [4][5] - As of mid-2024, foreign banks in China had total assets of 3.87 trillion yuan, with a net profit of 14.9 billion yuan, reflecting a 28.4% year-on-year increase, largely driven by wealth management contributions [5] Group 3: Competitive Landscape - Despite the potential of the wealth management market, foreign banks face significant competition from local banks, which dominate basic services like savings and wealth management due to their extensive networks and customer bases [7] - As of the end of 2023, there were only 888 operating foreign banks in China, leading to limited brand recognition and coverage [7] - Some foreign banks have opted to shrink their personal business layouts, with examples including the transfer of personal business by Dah Sing Bank and Citibank's sale of its personal wealth management business to HSBC [7] Group 4: Future Outlook - The wealth management business of foreign banks in China is expected to continue growing, with a focus on differentiation and specialization [8] - Foreign banks will deepen their high-end and cross-border services, leveraging global networks to meet the complex needs of high-net-worth clients [8] - Digital transformation will be accelerated to enhance service efficiency and compensate for the limitations of physical branch networks [8]
七部门发布脑机接口重磅政策!产业发展提速,监管挑战仍在
Di Yi Cai Jing· 2025-08-10 12:23
Core Viewpoint - The brain-computer interface (BCI) industry is transitioning from a fragmented approach to a coordinated national strategy, aiming for sustainable development and innovation in the sector [1][3]. Group 1: Policy and Strategic Goals - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other departments have issued an implementation opinion to promote the innovation and development of the BCI industry, outlining five key tasks and 17 specific measures [1][2]. - By 2027, breakthroughs in key BCI technologies are expected, with the establishment of advanced technical, industrial, and standard systems, and products reaching international standards [1][2]. - By 2030, the BCI industry aims to cultivate 2 to 3 globally influential leading enterprises and a number of specialized small and medium-sized enterprises, enhancing its international competitiveness [1]. Group 2: Industry Development and Application - The BCI industry is entering a new historical development phase, with a focus on accelerating the application of technology and innovation [3][4]. - The implementation opinion emphasizes the importance of enhancing basic hardware and software capabilities, promoting the application of technological achievements, and improving product interoperability and usability [3][4]. - Companies are expected to increase R&D investments in critical areas such as biocompatible materials and minimally invasive implantation techniques [5][6]. Group 3: Funding and Support - The implementation opinion encourages increased funding support for the BCI industry, including investments from national manufacturing transformation funds and small enterprise development funds [4][5]. - This financial backing is anticipated to accelerate the development of core components and systems in the BCI sector, particularly in key industrialization processes [4][5]. Group 4: Standards and Regulatory Challenges - The sustainable development of the BCI industry relies on the establishment of a comprehensive standard system, including communication protocols for various BCI components [7][8]. - The opinion highlights the need for a data governance framework to protect user information and enhance the security of biological digital information [7][8]. - There are calls for a structured approach to clinical trials and data management to ensure the safety and efficacy of BCI products, particularly in sensitive areas involving brain data [9][10].