医药专场-2025 研究框架线上培训 摘要 2025 年医药板块由创新药驱动，特别是具备 BD（业务发展）和 TS （技术服务）能力的公司，形成 BD 驱动的医药创新药牛市，创新药研 发管线丰富度和临床进展是投资热点。 中国医药行业受益于工程师红利、临床推进速度快、成本低等优势，在 双抗、三抗、减肥药等领域具备竞争力，吸引跨国公司采购医药资产， 产业升级趋势明显。 创新药板块从研发、支付到商业化均获政策支持，中高端商业保险与医 保共同覆盖创新药品，鼓励创新药上市后快速进入医保，如特宝生物长 效生长激素有望年底进入医保。 医疗器械领域，传统器械国产替代率高，竞争激烈；创新器械如机器人、 内镜等处于进口替代阶段，行情轮动使得具有新产品的创新器械板块有 所上涨。 CRO 行业受益于 BD 资金回流，企业大量投入创新药研发，部分 GLP 减 肥药订单超预期，药明康德、凯莱英等公司表现优异，泰格医药等公司 股价涨幅显著。 Q&A 医药行业过去几年经历了哪些变化？ 医药行业在过去几年经历了显著的变化。2009 年至 2019 年期间，中国本土 医药行业经历了医保扩容，推动了医保放量的逻辑。2020 年至 2022 年，由 ...

2025年三季度的全球医药市场，简直像坐过山车——有的板块涨得让人拍腿，有的还在磨底，美国那边 还时不时扔个"政策炸弹"。 今天用大白话跟大家掰扯掰扯：这季度医药到底咋走的？接下来哪些方向值得盯？ 01、先划重点：这3个方向闭眼先关注 全球医药里有几条主线已经明明白白了，新手也能看懂： 港/A股里最值得看的，是帮药企做研发、生产服务的公司（业内叫"医药研发外包"或者"CXO"）。这些 公司就像"卖铲子的"——只要全球药企愿意搞新药，它们就有订单、能赚钱。 现在这波公司有两个硬优势：一是业绩增速又回到高位了，手里还攥着大笔订单，赚钱稳得很；二是估 值不算贵，业绩增速推动估值修复，还有上涨空间。 美股：盯紧两个基金（IBB跟踪纳指生物科技指数，XBI跟踪标普生物科技指数），再加上两家行业老 大（联合健康+诺和诺德）。 核心原因就一个：美联储要降息了！这对医药公司是"双重好事"：一方面，药企搞研发更容易拿到钱 （市场上的钱变多了）；另一方面，算公司未来收益时，"贴现利率"会变低，估值自然会往上提。 翻历史数据就知道，每次美联储降息后，医疗股尤其是生物科技板块，往往能涨一波。现在美股医药刚 好在"估值低、资金少、逻辑 ...

Core Viewpoint - The global pharmaceutical market in Q3 2025 is experiencing significant volatility, with some sectors performing exceptionally well while others struggle. The focus is on identifying promising investment opportunities in the pharmaceutical industry, particularly in the areas of drug research and development outsourcing (CXO) and biotechnology funds in the US [2][3]. Summary by Sections 1. Key Directions to Watch - The pharmaceutical sector in A-shares and Hong Kong is primarily driven by companies providing research and production services to drug manufacturers, known as CXO. These companies are benefiting from a resurgence in demand for new drug development, leading to strong order volumes and stable profitability [3][4]. 2. Market Performance Overview - In Q3 2025, the A-share biotechnology index rose by 14%, matching the performance of the Shanghai Composite Index. Notably, the pharmaceutical research outsourcing sector surged by 48%, driven by robust order volumes and solid earnings [5][6]. - The Hong Kong pharmaceutical sector outperformed the broader market, with healthcare stocks rising by 41%, led by biotechnology and life sciences services, which saw increases of 54% and 51%, respectively [6][8]. - In contrast, US pharmaceutical stocks lagged, with the S&P 500 healthcare index only increasing by 2%, attributed to a decline in post-pandemic earnings and ongoing policy uncertainties [6][7]. 3. Long-term Market Trends - Over the past year, the Hong Kong pharmaceutical sector has seen a remarkable increase of over 100%, while A-shares have also experienced significant gains, particularly in the pharmaceutical research outsourcing segment, which rose by 111% [8][9]. - The A-share pharmaceutical market is showing a clear trend of divergence, with strong performers like CXO and innovative drugs thriving, while other sectors face challenges, including a projected revenue decline of 2% for 2024 [10][11]. 4. Investment Opportunities and Risks - The two resilient sectors in the A-share market are pharmaceutical research outsourcing and innovative drugs, both of which are experiencing improved revenue and profit margins due to increased demand from global pharmaceutical companies [12]. - Conversely, sectors such as vaccines, offline pharmacies, blood products, and medical devices are facing significant challenges, including intense competition and regulatory pressures [13][14]. 5. US Market Dynamics - The key driver for the US pharmaceutical market is the anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which historically lead to positive performance in the biotechnology sector. Funds like IBB and XBI have already begun to outperform the broader market following these developments [17][18]. - Two leading companies in the US market, UnitedHealth and Novo Nordisk, are highlighted for their strong fundamentals and growth potential, particularly in the obesity treatment market [19][20]. 6. Conclusion - The current landscape of the global pharmaceutical market is characterized by a need for selective investment strategies, focusing on high-certainty opportunities in specific sectors such as CXO and biotechnology funds. External factors like Federal Reserve policies and US pharmaceutical regulations will significantly influence market dynamics [20].

2025 年 9 月 30 日 晨会速递 分析师点评 市场数据 行业研究 【金工】新能源主题基金净值涨幅占优，被动资金加仓 TMT 主题 ETF——基金市场 与 ESG 产品周报 20250929 本周国内权益市场指数普遍上涨，港股回调，新基市场热度持续，新成立基金 61 只， 合计发行份额为 366.07 亿份。行业主题基金表现来看，本周新能源、TMT 主题基金 净值涨幅占优，医药主题基金净值持续回撤。半导体主题产品净值表现明显占优。国 内股票 ETF 资金大幅净流入，细分主题来看，被动资金主要加仓 TMT 主题、大盘宽 基 ETF，减仓科创板、中小盘等宽基主题 ETF。 行业研究 【建筑建材】建材行业稳增长工作方案发布，以质量效益为中心严禁新增产能——建 材、建筑及基建公募 REITs 周报（9 月 20 日-9 月 26 日） (买入) 六部门印发《建材行业稳增长工作方案（2025-2026 年）》，注重供需两端协同发力。 当前我们建议关注：新材料方向：中国巨石（玻纤龙头，切入特种电子布赛道），国 恩股份（改性塑料龙头，战略布局 PEEK 及机器人方向），濮耐股份（活性氧化镁业 务弹性），科达制造（非洲 ...

| NVO 诺和诺德 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 55.6104-0.430 -0.77% | | 收盘价 09/26 15:59 美东 | | 53.940 + -1.670 -3.00% | | 盘前价 09/29 05:07 美东 | | 三 7 24 华 S 9 日 ♥ 白 一 白 | | ● 快捷交易 | | 最高价 56.020 | 开盘价 55.600 | 成交量 1773.98万 | | 最低价 54.560 | 昨收价 56.040 | 成交额 9.82亿 | | 平均价 55.348 | 市密率 M 14,22 | 总市值 2469.45亿(…) | | 振 幅 2.61% | 市盈率(静) 15.67 | 总股本 44.41亿 | | 换手率 0.56% | 市净率 9.371 | 流通值 1773.89亿 | | 52周最高 117.250 | 委 比 -66.67% | 流通股 31.9亿 | | 52周最低 44.548 | 量 比1.33 | 色 主 1股 | | 历史最高 143.542 股息TTM 1.794 | | | | 历史最低 -2.989 ...

港股方面，恒生生物科技指数开盘跌近 2% ，开盘后震荡下行。微创医疗、康方生物、百济 神州、药明生物、药明康德等均有明显跌幅。 【导读】突发"黑天鹅"！亚太市场医药股集体下跌 中国基金报 晨曦 9 月 26 日上午，亚太市场医药板块普遍走低。 A 股医药生物板块走低，减肥药、创新药、 CRO 等指数跌幅居前。 | 序号 代码 名称 | | 5分钟涨跌 涨跌幅 - | | --- | --- | --- | | 1 8841718 減肥药指数 | | -0.79% -1.56% | | വ 8841049 创新药指数 | | -0.61% -1.48% | | 3 8841421 CRO指数 | | -0.40% - -1.43% | | 4 884080 网络游戏指数 | | | | տ 8841867 Kimi指数 | | -0.58% -1.31% | | 6 8841087 仿制药指数 | | -0.66% -1.25% | | 7 8841690 中文语料库指数 -0.78% -1.25% | | | | 8 8841742 短剧游戏指数 -0.79% -1.22% | | | | თ | 88417 ...

2025 年 9 月 23 日星期二 【实时热点】 【美国债市】 资料来源：BLOOMBERG、AASTOCKS、WIND、格隆汇、国元证券经纪（香港）整理 究 报 告 请务必阅读免责条款 1 证 券 研 美联储理事米兰：在大幅降息之后 预计 2026 年和 2027 年 将进一步小幅降息 安理会五常仅美国未承认巴勒斯坦国 赴美留学生数量降至四年来最低 亚洲学生数量下降幅度最 大 韩股收盘再创历史新高，年内累涨 44.56% 吴清：更好发挥中长期资金压舱石作用，吸引更多源头活水 钢铁行业未来两年目标确定：年均增长 4%，严禁新增产能 香港交易所：密切关注超强台风"桦加沙" 将视情况发布进一 步通知 富途、老虎进一步关闭中国内地居民开户通道 英伟达拟向 OpenAI 投资 1000 亿美元 共建 AI 数据中心 辉瑞重返减肥药领域，拟斥资 73 亿美元收购 Metsera 2 年期美债收益率涨 3.36 个基点报 3.601% 5 年期美债收益率涨 2.45 个基点报 3.701% 10 年期美债收益率涨 2.12 个基点报 4.147% 【经济数据】 | 重要指数 | 收市价 | 涨跌(%) | 海外市场重要 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state of major currency pairs against the US dollar, highlighting fluctuations in exchange rates and upcoming economic indicators that may influence market movements. Currency Analysis - **Australian Dollar (AUD/USD)**: The AUD/USD is attempting to break through the range of 0.6400 to 0.6600, with resistance at the 2025 high of 0.6679. A further breakthrough could target the peak of 0.6687 from November 2024, with a psychological level at 0.7000. The first support level is at the August low of 0.6414, just above the 200-day simple moving average of 0.6392 and the June low of 0.6372. Momentum indicators show bullish signals, with the RSI above 69 indicating potential for further upside, while the ADX around 19 suggests the trend is gaining momentum [4]. - **Euro (EUR/USD)**: The EUR/USD has broken through the resistance range of 1.1780-1.1790, which is seen as a key signal for bullish trading. The daily chart's oscillators continue to show positive momentum and are far from overbought territory, indicating that the path of least resistance for the EUR/USD is upward. Any subsequent pullbacks may be viewed as buying opportunities, with limited expected retracement [4]. - **British Pound (GBP/USD)**: The GBP/USD has fallen below the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of its upward trend since the August low, around 1.3500, confirming a negative outlook for the pound against the dollar. The daily chart's oscillators have begun to show negative trends, suggesting that the minimum resistance path for prices remains downward. Prices may test the 50% Fibonacci retracement level near 1.3435-1.3430, and further selling could lead to a drop below the 1.3400 level, potentially reaching the monthly low of 1.3335-1.3330 [5]. Economic Indicators - Key economic data to be released includes the preliminary manufacturing PMI for France, Germany, the Eurozone, and the UK, as well as the US second-quarter current account and various PMI readings from the US. These indicators are crucial for assessing economic health and may impact currency valuations [7].

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve officials are signaling a hawkish stance, indicating limited reasons for further rate cuts this year [3][9] - U.S. Treasury Secretary hints at potential financial assistance to Argentina, leading to a positive response in the Argentine stock market [9] - Nvidia plans to invest $100 billion in OpenAI to co-develop AI data centers, reflecting a significant commitment to AI technology [3][13] Group 2 - The U.S. stock market indices reached new highs, with the Dow Jones up 0.14%, S&P 500 up 0.44%, and Nasdaq up 0.7% [4][6] - International oil prices are declining due to concerns over oversupply, with WTI crude oil at $62.25 per barrel and Brent crude at $66.03 per barrel [4][6] - The Hong Kong stock market experienced a decline, with the Hang Seng Index down 0.76% and significant movements in semiconductor and precious metals stocks [5][6] Group 3 - The Chinese stock market showed positive movement, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.22% and the Shenzhen Component Index up 0.67% [5][6] - The central bank of China emphasizes a domestic-focused monetary policy while considering external factors in response to potential Fed rate cuts [11]

来源：滚动播报 减肥药制造商Metsera飙升 58.9%，该公司宣布将被辉瑞以 49 亿美元现金收购，辉瑞涨1.0%。经纪业巨 头Compass计划以 16 亿美元全股票交易收购竞争对手Anywhere公司，Anywhere涨55.5%，而Compass下 跌7.9%。Sarepta Therapeutics涨6.8%，BMO将这家生物技术公司的股票评级上调至 "跑赢大盘"，并预测 其股价将翻倍以上。文远知行涨2.3%，将在新加坡推出自动驾驶出租车服务。 ...