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专访摩根大通刘鸣镝:反内卷催生上行行情,流动性追随可持续业绩
进入2026年,A股市场正站在一个关键的转折点上。自2024年9月"924"行情以来,上证指数从约2700点 一路攀升至当前4100点附近。这并非一轮情绪驱动的短期行情,而是在政策持续发力、企业盈利预期改 善以及居民储蓄加速入市的多重支撑下,市场正从估值修复阶段迈向盈利驱动的新周期。 南方财经 21世纪经济报道记者张伟泽袁思杰香港报道 2026年A股市场将如何演绎?投资者应采取何种策略?近日,21世纪经济报道记者专访了摩根大通中国 内地及香港地区股票策略研究主管刘鸣镝。 刘鸣镝表示,若反内卷取得实质性成效,2026年A股市场有望迎来一轮"慢牛"行情,投资者信心或将发 生根本性转变。其核心驱动力在于企业盈利能力的持续改善,而这将支持资产回报及估值的可持续性。 刘鸣镝以日本股市为例,指出日本东证指数(TOPIX)在过去十二年间上涨了约两倍, 但其每股营业 额以美元计价并未显著成长,关键在于企业净利润率从约3%上升到7%。她认为,中国企业正走在相似 的道路上,通过减少无效竞争、优化资本开支、稳定及提升股东回报,以逐步摆脱"增收不增利"的困 境。 在行业方面,刘鸣镝重点关注地产、材料与信息技术(IT)。她认为,若年内 ...
农行广东分行刘明尧:集中资源下沉金融服务,加码“百千万工程”
"农业银行广东分行始终坚持服务'三农 '主责主业,深入践行金融工作的政治性与人民性,持续完善覆 盖城乡的服务体系、精准赋能的产品体系、惠农强基的队伍体系,凝聚起服务乡村振兴的强大合力。"2 月5日,在广州举办的"百千万工程"金融服务发布会上,农业银行广东分行党委书记、行长刘明尧在致 辞中介绍了上述情况。 展望未来,农业银行广东分行将进一步扛牢服务"三农"的金融使命,坚决贯彻落实党中央及省委省政府 各项决策部署,加强与各级"百千万工程"指挥办、国资、农业农村等部门的联动对接,持续奋斗、积极 作为,以更高水平、更有效能的金融服务支持"百千万工程",为广东城乡区域协调发展注入更坚实的金 融动力。 (文章来源:21世纪经济报道) 刘明尧表示,每年,分行接续制定并实施"百千万工程"专项服务方案,紧盯重点领域加大金融供给,推 动资源向基层倾斜、服务向一线下沉,有力助力"百千万工程"实现"三年初见成效",获得各级党政部门 与社会各界的广泛认可。下一步,农业银行广东分行将紧紧围绕省委"1310"具体部署,继续奋发有为、 强化担当,重点聚焦县域产业发展、县镇村功能面貌提升、县域投融资体制改革及海洋强省建设,推动 金融供给更加精 ...
Coach母公司赚翻了;历峰考虑出售积家 |二姨看时尚
Group 1 - Several brands reported stable growth or exceeded market expectations, with DTC channels becoming the core growth engine, particularly in North America and China [2] - Under Armour's third-quarter performance exceeded expectations, with adjusted diluted earnings per share of $0.09, significantly better than the expected loss of $0.02 per share [3][4] - Canada Goose's third-quarter revenue grew by 14.2%, driven by strong performance in the Chinese market, which has become a key growth driver [7] Group 2 - Estée Lauder reported a net sales increase of 6% to $4.2 billion, returning to profitability with a net profit of $162 million, attributed to its transformation strategy [8] - Ralph Lauren's third-quarter net profit increased by 21.6% to $361.6 million, with net sales rising by 12% to $2.4 billion, driven by a significant increase in average unit retail price [9][10] - Tapestry's Coach brand saw a 25% increase in sales to $2.1 billion, contributing to record overall performance for the group [15][16] Group 3 - Capri Holdings reported a quarterly revenue of $1.025 billion, exceeding expectations, with a significant reduction in net debt to $80 million [19][20] - The luxury sector is witnessing strategic shifts, with brands like Pandora entering the platinum jewelry market to mitigate silver price volatility [17][18] - Bottega Veneta appointed Emilie Leblanc as the new global marketing and communications director, indicating a focus on stabilizing brand messaging during leadership transitions [22][23] Group 4 - The luxury watch sector is facing challenges, with Richemont considering the sale of Jaeger-LeCoultre due to ongoing performance issues in its watch division [11][12] - Zegna Group reported a slight revenue decline of 1.5% for the fiscal year, with DTC channels showing strong growth while wholesale channels contracted [23][24]
这个春节,拼年货的战斗力还得看老乡
"临近春节,快递明显多了起来,一天最多突破150个,很多都是年货。"重庆巫溪一处乡村驿站的负责 人郑发燕发现,家家户户除旧迎新,桶、盆、纸巾等日用品的拼单量明显增多,冷链生鲜、新衣服也陆 续到站。 最近,郑发燕也拼单了10斤黄豆,打算过年自己磨豆腐。她算了一笔账:线上买10斤黄豆约24元,折合 每斤才2.4元。不仅价格实惠,豆子颗粒也非常饱满,吃着划算。 随着各个线上平台全面开启"年货节",通过百亿补贴、万人团等方式,天南地北的年礼汇聚云端,并随 着日益完善的快递网络翻山越岭,不仅装点了繁华都市的万家灯火,也激活了广袤乡村的消费图景。 国家统计局数据显示,2025年农村居民人均可支配收入达到24456元,比上年实际增长6%;乡村消费品 零售额达6.8万亿元,同比增长4.1%。不管是收入增长还是消费增速,农村居民都已连续多年快于城镇 居民。乡村消费持续火热也成为今年春节消费的一大亮点。 2月3日发布的2026年中央一号文件提出,要多措并举扩大乡村消费。支持县乡村流通基础设施建设更 新,促进农村及偏远地区商贸流通降本增效。 随着政策进一步推动商流、物流向乡村延伸,从生鲜干货到日常用品,网购正搭建起跨越山海的温情纽 ...
春晚,白酒春节营销的巅峰之战|观酒周报
Group 1 - The upcoming Spring Festival is a crucial marketing period for the liquor industry, with a long holiday expected to boost consumption opportunities [1] - The CCTV Spring Festival Gala has announced four major liquor sponsors: Wuliangye, Yanghe, Gujinggong, and Langjiu, with each having a significant presence in the event [1][2] - There are expectations of additional liquor brands participating in the Spring Festival Gala, despite a perceived reduction in sponsorship compared to previous years [1] Group 2 - In recent years, the Spring Festival Gala has typically featured a core group of four liquor sponsors, with additional brands appearing in various capacities [2][3] - The number of liquor brands participating in the Spring Festival Gala has varied, with a peak of nine brands in 2024, indicating a trend of increasing brand involvement [4] - Some liquor companies are shifting their focus to local television programs to strengthen brand presence in their key markets, while still maintaining participation in major events like the CCTV Spring Festival Gala [5] Group 3 - Various liquor brands are exploring partnerships with social media platforms to enhance engagement and marketing reach during the Spring Festival [8] - Companies like Xijiu are entering into direct sales partnerships with platforms like Meituan to facilitate quicker delivery and boost sales [9] Group 4 - New product launches are occurring, such as the introduction of a low-alcohol liquor by Shui Jing Fang, which has seen significant pre-sale success [10] - The UMEET blueberry sparkling wine from Moutai has achieved impressive sales figures on its launch day, indicating strong market interest [11] - Luzhou Laojiao aims to enhance its market position and is targeting a top-three industry ranking, reflecting competitive ambitions within the sector [12] Group 5 - Chongqing Beer reported growth in revenue, profit, and sales volume for 2025, indicating a recovery and positive trend in the beer market [14]
新兴产业占GDP达43% 深圳“20+8”政策升级3.0版
Core Insights - Shenzhen is set to implement the "3.0 version" of its "20+8" strategic emerging industry cluster policy by 2026, aiming for a growth target of over 7% in the added value of strategic emerging industries [1][4] - By 2025, the added value of Shenzhen's strategic emerging industries is projected to reach 1.67 trillion yuan, accounting for 43% of the city's GDP [2][4] Industry Growth and Structure - During the 14th Five-Year Plan period, Shenzhen's GDP grew at an average annual rate of 5.5%, leading among first-tier cities [2] - The added value of strategic emerging industries increased from 1.03 trillion yuan in 2020 to 1.67 trillion yuan, with a GDP share of 43% [2] - Advanced manufacturing accounted for 68.4% of the added value in regulated industries, with significant contributions from smart terminal clusters and digital economy sectors [2] Policy Evolution - The "2.0 version" of the policy was released in March 2024, introducing new clusters such as low-altitude economy and aerospace, and elevating artificial intelligence to a standalone cluster [3] - The policy aims to foster a symbiotic relationship between foundational research and industry clusters, promoting innovation and application [3] Future Industry Development - Shenzhen plans to enhance the development capabilities of key industries such as new-generation electronic information, electric vehicles, and semiconductors [4][5] - The city will also focus on emerging sectors like low-altitude economy, biomedicine, and high-performance materials, aiming for deep collaboration in manufacturing and service operations [5] High-Tech Product Advancements - Shenzhen is accelerating breakthroughs in high-end chips, semiconductor production equipment, and advanced materials, with significant achievements in previously monopolized technologies [5] - The city is also advancing in artificial intelligence, with over 2,600 AI enterprises and 1,000 core robotics companies, establishing itself as a leader in the global robotics market [6]
两大光伏龙头盘中涨停,16.5亿天价专利纠纷达成和解
Core Viewpoint - The A-share photovoltaic sector experienced a surge in stock prices, with multiple companies reaching their daily limit, driven by a significant patent licensing agreement between Aiko Solar and TCL Zhonghuan's subsidiary Maxeon, involving a total licensing fee of 1.65 billion yuan [1][3]. Group 1: Patent Licensing Agreement - Aiko Solar and TCL Zhonghuan signed a patent licensing agreement allowing Aiko to access all BC battery and component patents owned by Maxeon, excluding reverse licensing [1][3]. - The total licensing fee is 1.65 billion yuan, with the first-year payment set at 250 million yuan, marking the largest publicly disclosed patent licensing fee in China's photovoltaic industry to date [1][3]. - The agreement resolves ongoing patent disputes between Aiko and Maxeon, including previous lawsuits in Germany and the Netherlands regarding BC technology [3]. Group 2: Market Impact and Company Performance - Following the announcement, Aiko Solar's stock price reached 14.92 yuan per share, with a market capitalization of 31.6 billion yuan, while TCL Zhonghuan's stock was at 11.68 yuan per share, with a market cap of 47.2 billion yuan [4]. - Aiko Solar anticipates that the licensing fees will be covered by projected sales exceeding 165 GW over the next five years, with an average cost of less than 0.01 yuan per watt for licensing [4]. - The licensing model based on BC technology is expected to become a new profit growth point for Aiko Solar [4]. Group 3: Industry Context - Patent disputes are common in the photovoltaic industry, with many leading manufacturers involved in ongoing legal battles over technology rights [3][4]. - The emphasis on intellectual property protection is increasingly recognized within the photovoltaic sector, as highlighted by recent discussions on industry governance and the need for coordinated efforts to balance supply and demand [8].
万亿巨头大涨!保险板块全线飘红 行业或迎“戴维斯双击”
港股保险板块的表现同样惊艳,与A股形成呼应。截至午间收盘,众淼控股大涨41.78%,中国人寿H股 涨幅达4.51%,中国平安H股上涨4.09%,云锋金融、阳光保险等头部险企涨幅显著。 此番板块异动背后,是存款利率下行与行业基本面的持续改善。在此背景下,以分红险为代表的储蓄险 凭借收益更高、期限更长、兼具保障功能的优势,成为居民资产配置的重要选择,为保险行业增长注入 强劲动力。 根据国家金融监督管理总局披露的数据,2025年,我国保险业原保险保费收入首次突破6万亿元大关, 达到6.12万亿元,同比增长7.4%;行业总资产达41.31万亿元,较年初增长15.1%。 而上市险企的盈利表现更是亮眼。2025年前三季度,A股五大上市险企合计实现归母净利润4260亿元, 同比增长33.5%,刷新历史纪录。其中,中国人寿实现归母净利润1678.04亿元,同比增长60.5%;新华 保险实现归母净利润328.57亿元,同比增长58.9%。其余三家险企也实现两位数增长。中国平安、中国 人保、中国太保分别实现归母净利润1328.56亿元、468.22亿元、457亿元,分别同比增长11.5%、 28.9%、19.3%。 2月9日早盘 ...
港股风电股午后拉升
南方财经2月9日电,港股风电股午后拉升,东方电气涨超13%,金风科技、瑞风新能源跟涨。 ...
盘中线索丨日东纺拟年内上调T型玻纤价格,玻璃玻纤板块活跃
菲利华:2025H1公司石英电子布实现销售收入1312.48万元,产品目前处于客户小批量测试及终端客户 认证阶段。 莱特光电:目前已经组建具备Q布研发生产经验的团队,并且已购置部分生产设备。 宏和科技:公司生产的高性能电子布产品目前已进入行业内多家龙头覆铜板厂商的供应链并实现销售。 现有高性能电子布产品的主要客户台光电子、斗山电子、台燿科技、生益科技、松下集团等均为全球前 十大覆铜板厂商。 南方财经2月9日电,玻璃玻纤板块持续活跃,金晶科技涨停,宏和科技涨超6%,国际付出、三峡新 材、中材科技等跟涨。 消息面上,据智通财经,AI芯片需求的爆发导致T型玻璃纤维布供应趋紧。其主要供应商日东纺计划自 今年年底起稳步提升产能,目标在2028年前将产能提升至2025年的三倍。日东纺表示,即便新生产线投 产,仍难以弥合供给与快速增长需求之间的差距,计划于今年上调价格。花旗分析师预计,涨价幅度可 能达到25%甚至更高。此轮涨价很可能传导至下游,推高智能手机和笔记本电脑的终端售价。 根据公开资料梳理的一些相关个股: 中材科技:全资子公司泰山玻纤陆续成功研发并量产高速覆铜板用低介电纤维布、超低损耗低介电纤维 布及封装用低膨胀纤 ...