纽约商品交易所黄金期货市场交投最活跃的2026年2月黄金期价20日上涨1.98%，收于每盎司4769.10美 元。 在整体市场风险规避情绪高涨的背景下，黄金、白银期价当日大幅上涨，再创历史新高。2月黄金期价 突破每盎司4760美元，过去12个月上涨幅度超过78%；3月白银期价一度突破每盎司95美元，自2025年 以来已上涨超过230%。 黄金创出新高之际，分析师也纷纷上调金价预期。瑞银贵金属策略师JoniTeves表示，多元化配置需求是 本轮金价上行的核心驱动力，机构投资者、零售投资者及各国央行均在增持黄金以应对宏观不确定性。 她预计金价上半年仍有上攻动能，若市场对美联储独立性的担忧持续升温，金价在上半年有望冲击5000 美元／盎司关口。白银则受益于金价上涨的带动及自身供需缺口收窄，今年或挑战100美元／盎司。 资讯编辑：王芳琴 021-66896877 资讯监督：乐卫扬 021-26093827 资讯投诉：陈跃进 021-26093100 美国总统特朗普试图控制格陵兰岛，导致美欧关系紧张。本周初，全球股市暴跌，交易员和投资者焦虑 情绪高涨。继特朗普因格陵兰岛问题17日宣布从2月1日起对来自丹麦、挪威、瑞典、 ...

美国总统特朗普试图控制格陵兰岛，导致美欧关系紧张。本周初，全球股市暴跌，交易员和投资者焦虑 情绪高涨。继特朗普因格陵兰岛问题17日宣布从2月1日起对来自丹麦、挪威、瑞典、法国、德国、英 国、荷兰和芬兰的输美商品加征10%关税之后，特朗普19日在得知法国总统马克龙无意加入美国主导的 监督加沙地带战后过渡治理的所谓"和平委员会"后，威胁对法国葡萄酒和香槟征收200%的关税。作为 报复，欧盟正在商讨对价值930亿欧元的美国商品加征关税。 日本债券大规模抛售蔓延至全球债务市场，美国国债收益率升至四个多月来的最高水平，这也支撑了对 黄金和白银的避险需求。 新华财经纽约1月20日电（记者徐静）纽约商品交易所黄金期货市场交投最活跃的2026年2月黄金期价20 日上涨1.98%，收于每盎司4769.10美元。 在整体市场风险规避情绪高涨的背景下，黄金、白银期价当日大幅上涨，再创历史新高。2月黄金期价 突破每盎司4760美元，过去12个月上涨幅度超过78%；3月白银期价一度突破每盎司95美元，自2025年 以来已上涨超过230%。 值得注意的是，波兰央行（NBP)当地时间周二表示，已批准一项购买多达150吨黄金的计划，此举将使 ...

Group 1 - The core market sentiment is shifting towards a "sell America" strategy due to rising geopolitical tensions and threats of increased tariffs from the U.S. government [1][2][4] - The U.S. stock market experienced significant declines, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropping by 870.74 points (1.76%) to close at 48,488.59 points, and the S&P 500 falling by 143.15 points (2.06%) to 6,796.86 points [1] - The Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index, known as the "fear index," surged by 26.67% to 20.09, marking the highest level since November 25, 2025, indicating increased investor anxiety [3] Group 2 - The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.316%, the highest since August 25, 2025, reflecting investor concerns over the U.S. government's financial situation [1][3] - European investors are contemplating halting investments in U.S. assets or even selling off existing holdings due to the political climate, although significant action may require further escalation [5] - Analysts suggest that while the current geopolitical tensions are notable, there are no immediate signs of a financial weaponization risk between the U.S. and Europe [4]

Core Insights - The National Energy Administration reports that in 2026, the national electricity load during winter reached a new high, surpassing 1.4 billion kilowatts for the first time, peaking at 1.417 billion kilowatts, with daily electricity consumption exceeding 30 billion kilowatt-hours for the first time in winter, indicating a critical period for heating and supply [1][2]. Group 1: Electricity Load Situation - Electricity load has consistently reached new highs, with the maximum load on January 4 hitting 1.351 billion kilowatts, marking a historical winter peak. From January 18, due to a widespread cold wave, the load increased rapidly, adding 150 million kilowatts in just three days, equivalent to Japan's maximum annual load [2]. - On January 19 and 20, the load reached 1.379 billion and 1.4 billion kilowatts respectively, with a peak of 1.417 billion kilowatts. Since the start of winter, 75 historical load peaks have been recorded across various regional power grids [2]. Group 2: Measures to Ensure Stable Power Supply - The National Energy Administration has proactively deployed measures to ensure stable and orderly power supply, addressing challenges such as significant fluctuations in renewable energy output and equipment failures due to severe weather [3]. - Responsibilities for power supply have been clearly defined, with a focus on ensuring safe and reliable electricity supply. The "one province, one policy" approach guides key regions and power companies to implement specific measures for heating and supply [3]. - Safety in production is emphasized, with a commitment to prevent various safety incidents and ensure smooth operations during the year-end and beginning of the year [3]. - Service quality is prioritized, with special attention to electricity safety for essential users such as transportation hubs and large shopping centers, and proactive adjustments to prevent overloads in power distribution [3]. Group 3: Future Actions - The National Energy Administration will continue to guide and supervise local power companies to effectively implement winter heating and supply measures, monitoring electricity supply and demand changes daily to address potential risks and ensure stable power supply [4].

全年经济总量迈上140万亿元新台阶、制造业增加值连续16年位居全球第一、年末常住人口城镇化率比 上年提高0.89个百分点……2025年，我国交出一份高质量的发展答卷。 新的一年，如何落实中央经济工作会议精神，推动"十五五"实现良好开局？国务院新闻办公室20日举行 新闻发布会，国家发展改革委相关负责人回答记者提问。 充分挖掘中国经济潜能 "经济社会发展主要目标顺利完成，经济运行稳中有进，发展韧性进一步彰显，民生政策更有温度，交 出了一份高质量答卷。"在总结过去一年经济发展成果时，国家发展改革委副主任王昌林这样概括。 "展望2026年，我们认为消费与投资、科技与产业、城乡与区域都将释放出巨大的发展潜能。"国家发展 改革委国民经济综合司司长周陈说。 从点上看，新技术新产品新场景蔚然成势。周陈表示，我国新能源、新材料、航空航天等新的经济增长 点正在蓄势待发。"目前我们正在谋划推进一批'十五五'时期的高技术产业标志性引领性重大工程。"周 陈说。 从线上看，创新链产业链人才链加速融合。周陈介绍，我国有完整的产业体系和超大规模市场，也有全 球规模最宏大、门类最齐全的人才资源，具备了将创新成果从"书架"推上"货架"的全链条全 ...

Core Viewpoint - The market's concerns over Japan's significant increase in government spending and the resurgence of inflation are leading to a breakdown in the traditional correlation between the yen and the dollar, prompting HSBC strategists to revise their forecasts for the yen's trajectory in the coming months [1] Group 1: Economic Factors - Two catalysts for the "sudden revaluation" of the yen are identified: the substantial rise in Japanese inflation that began in 2022 and the ascension of Prime Minister Kishi Matsumoto in October [1] - HSBC now predicts that the yen will fall to 160 yen per dollar by mid-year, contrary to previous expectations of strengthening to 150 yen [1] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The complexity of the situation is highlighted by the potential for Japanese authorities to intervene in the foreign exchange market if the yen falls below 160 [1] - Several potential factors that could halt the yen's recent decline are noted, with the most feasible being an economic slowdown in the United States, which is beyond the control of Japanese policymakers [1]

从短期走势看，经季节性调整后，2025年11月南非矿业产量环比下降5.9%。不过，从阶段性表现来 看，截至11月的三个月矿业产量较此前三个月仍增长1.6%，显示行业整体仍具一定韧性。 分析人士指出，美国关税政策引发的通胀压力、国际大宗商品市场波动以及南非国内物流和基础设施瓶 颈，仍是影响该国矿业稳定增长的主要因素。 （文章来源：新华财经） 新华财经约翰内斯堡1月21日电（记者靳博文） 南非统计局20日数据显示，2025年11月该国矿业产量同 比下降2.7%，为该国矿业自2025年4月以来首次出现同比下滑，最新数据亦明显低于市场此前普遍预期 的3.9%增幅。 数据显示，矿业整体走弱主要受多项核心矿产品产量下降拖累。其中，煤炭产量同比下降7.9%，铁矿 石下降7.6%，铂族金属下降2.8%，黄金下降6.0%。但与此同时，锰矿产量同比增长17%，表现相对强 劲，在一定程度上对整体矿业产量形成对冲支撑。 除产量波动外，持续攀升的运营成本亦对南非矿业形成长期制约。南非矿业理事会日前发布数据显示， 2025年11月该国电力成本同比飙升近16%，水成本同比上涨11.6%，劳动力成本亦同比上升约6%。高企 的生产成本已导致近 ...

作者：袁闯，财信证券首席经济学家 1月19日，国家统计局发布数据显示，初步核算，2025年国内生产总值1401879亿元，按不变价格计算， 比上年增长5.0%。从环比增速来看，一季度GDP环比增长1.2%，二季度增长1.0%，三季度增长1.1%， 四季度增长1.2%。整体来看，全年经济运行节奏大体平稳，经济社会发展主要目标任务圆满实现，"十 四五"胜利收官，结构上继续向新向优。 内需方面，经济自发复苏动能仍待巩固。拆分投资因素来看，鉴于"反内卷"政策可能拖累部分制造业投 资、房价偏弱仍将制约房地产投资、财政政策继续支撑基建投资，预计2026年固定资产投资增速可能有 限回升。拆分消费因素来看，2026年预计"股市财富效应"对消费仍将发挥一定贡献，"收入效应"对消费 仍有一定制约作用，但伴随着切实改善民生、提升民众福祉，使消费行为从政策驱动转为自觉、可持续 的内生性增长，2026年消费将延续温和复苏态势。 外需方面，虽然2025年"抢出口"行为可能对2026年实际出口有一定"透支效应"，但在光伏等产品出口退 税政策调整、中美关税摩擦"烈度"降级、全球经济仍有韧性、中国出口企业竞争力提升等共同支撑下， 预计2026 ...

新华财经上海1月20日电（记者杨溢仁）高成长产业债自推出以来，正稳步发展为交易所债券市场服务 实体经济的有力融资渠道之一。 截至2025年12月31日，市场累计迎来70家发行人，成功发行112单债券，募集资金规模达683.48亿元， 广泛覆盖化工、机械、电气设备、消费、建筑、交通运输等国民经济关键领域。 记者调研发现，高成长产业债发行人普遍在募集说明书中设置了强化信息披露的相关条款。一家发行人 在接受采访时表示："合规是第一位的，底线是没有财务造假。作为公开市场债券发行人，信息披露既 是公司的义务，也是向投资者展示公司信用的重要途径。增加自愿披露内容体现了公司积极做好信息披 露的态度。" 从满足合规要求至主动传递信用信息，高成长产业债发行人正逐步践行"信用即价值"，即回归信用本 源。 "发行人通过及时披露重大事项，针对性地分析相关事项对偿债能力的影响，有助于提高信息披露的有 效性，从而使债券成交定价更加准确、交易更加活跃，吸引更多投资者参与债券市场。"上交所债券业 务中心的相关负责人表示。 记者从多家高成长产业债发行人处了解到，信息披露带来的积极效应不仅体现在资本市场的流动性改善 方面，也有助于企业在公开市场 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government is implementing a comprehensive fiscal and financial policy package to stimulate domestic demand, with a focus on supporting small and micro enterprises, promoting consumer spending, and enhancing private investment [1][2]. Group 1: Policy Overview - The fiscal and financial policy package includes six key measures aimed at expanding domestic demand, with four focused on stimulating private investment and two on promoting consumer spending [2]. - The policies are designed to simplify processes, allowing for direct benefits without application requirements, thereby enhancing efficiency and effectiveness [2]. Group 2: Specific Policies - **Small and Micro Enterprises Loan Interest Subsidy Policy**: This policy provides interest subsidies of 1.5 percentage points on loans for key industries such as new energy vehicles and medical equipment, with a maximum loan amount of 50 million yuan and a subsidy period of up to 2 years [3]. - **Private Investment Special Guarantee Plan**: This plan offers loan guarantees for small and micro private enterprises, allowing for loans up to 20 million yuan for activities like facility upgrades and expansions [3]. - **Support for Private Enterprise Bond Risk Sharing Mechanism**: Central government funds will be allocated to share risks associated with bond issuance by private enterprises, helping to lower financing thresholds [3]. Group 3: Additional Policies - **Equipment Upgrade Loan Interest Subsidy Policy**: This policy expands the scope of interest subsidies to include loans for equipment upgrades and technology innovation, with a subsidy of 1.5 percentage points for up to 2 years [4]. - **Service Industry Operating Entity Loan Interest Subsidy Policy**: The loan limit for this policy has been increased from 1 million yuan to 10 million yuan, with a 1 percentage point subsidy for one year, covering 11 consumer sectors [4]. - **Personal Consumption Loan Interest Subsidy Policy**: Residents can receive a 1 percentage point subsidy on personal consumption loans, including credit card installment payments, with over 500 financial institutions eligible to provide these loans [4]. Group 4: Financial Arrangements - Sufficient budgetary provisions have been made for the fiscal expenditures required by these policies in 2026, encouraging local entities to actively engage in business [5].