Guo Ji Jin Rong Bao
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2026年十大投资指南
Guo Ji Jin Rong Bao· 2026-01-19 10:10
Core Insights - The annual top investment guide by Wellington Investment aims to help investors clarify priorities for the upcoming year to achieve better investment outcomes [1] Review of Last Year's Performance - The overall market performance for 2025 (up to November) was similar to 2023 and 2024, with strong stock returns, decent credit returns, low government bond returns, and mixed performance in commodities [2] - Gold ranked second in asset performance for the second consecutive year, with emerging markets, including China, and broad non-U.S. equities being the best-performing asset classes [2] - U.S. stocks showed resilience due to the strong performance of large-cap stocks [2] Lessons Learned - Policy paths are not linear, as the new U.S. government's tariff policies were unpredictable, impacting market sentiment [4] - Risk appetite and risk-averse sentiment can coexist, as evidenced by the strong performance of stocks during periods of rising gold prices [5] - The U.S. dollar is not invulnerable, facing pressure due to market and strategic reasons [6] - Betting against inflation and shorting tech stocks can be costly, indicating risks in going against the current cycle [7] - The principle of "buying the dip" remains valid, as increasing positions during market downturns often outperforms reducing positions [8] - Current global trends may persist, and investors should be prepared for this [9] Assessing Short-Term Outlook - As of December 2025, the team holds a moderately overweight view on global equities, benefiting from reduced uncertainty in global economic policies and central bank easing [10] - Preference for stock allocation is given to Japan and the U.S., followed by Europe and emerging markets [10] - A moderately overweight view on developed market government bonds, neutral on credit, and slightly underweight on commodities, primarily driven by a slight underweight on oil [10] - The short-term outlook for stocks remains optimistic following a strong rise in 2025 [11] Examining Potential Opportunity Areas - Wellington Investment's capital market assumptions indicate that stock returns are expected to outperform fixed income, with non-U.S. stocks leading [12] - The expected return for a typical 60% equity/40% fixed income portfolio is slightly above 5%, lower than the historical average of about 6% due to valuation constraints [16] - Adjustments to tech stock allocations are recommended, as nearly 40% of surveyed respondents are underweight in tech stocks [16] - Defensive stock strategies may still hold value in portfolios despite temporarily lagging behind tech stocks [17] - Consideration of non-favored areas such as non-U.S. stocks, small-cap stocks, and value stocks is encouraged [18] - 2026 may present ample diversification investment opportunities [19] Understanding Market Consensus - Current market consensus indicates a preference for stocks and gold, with concerns over bubble risks [20] - The risk pricing for government and credit bonds is relatively low [21] - The expectation remains that the Federal Reserve will intervene during market sell-offs [22] - Investor sentiment towards emerging markets is generally cold, despite increasing interest from some fund managers [23] - Value stocks, quality stocks, and small-cap stocks appear to remain out of favor [24] - Market expectations show a nearly 50% growth in earnings, despite past negative actual earnings [25] - Strong recovery is anticipated in Europe and emerging markets, with steady expectations for the U.S., while Japan's economic improvement is minimally expected [25] - The market anticipates the continuation of current trends, suggesting that any surprises could lead to significant impacts [26] Considering Possible Surprises - Preparation for stronger growth, higher inflation, and unexpected policy changes is advised [28] Long-Term Outlook - Institutional asset owners plan to increase allocations in 2026 to hedge funds, infrastructure, private credit, private equity, non-U.S. developed market stocks, emerging market stocks, and return-seeking fixed income [29] - Strategies that may be effective regardless of the cycle include market concentration strategies and dynamic fixed income strategies [30] Researching Alternative Investment Areas - Alternative investments are crucial for many investors, with a focus on hedge funds, private equity, and private credit [32] Fostering Internal Risk Management Awareness - Key risks to monitor in 2026 include U.S. midterm elections, potential fiscal stimulus, and optimistic sentiment towards earnings, especially in tech stocks [34] - Scenario analysis and stress testing of portfolios are recommended to incorporate various risk factors [34] Evaluating Liquidity Conditions - Investors should consider factors that may alter liquidity demands in the coming year [36] - Overall liquidity conditions are expected to remain consistent with those seen in 2025 [37] Streamlining 2026 Priorities - Investors should simplify their priorities into manageable lists, focusing on both defensive and offensive strategies [38]
成都华微:预计2025年净利润同比增加74.35%至108.73%
Guo Ji Jin Rong Bao· 2026-01-19 09:47
成都华微公告,预计2025年年度实现归属于母公司所有者的净利润为2.13亿元至2.55亿元,与上年同期 相比,将增加9083.01万元至1.33亿元,同比增加74.35%至108.73%。归属于母公司所有者的扣除非经常 性损益的净利润为1.83亿元至2.2亿元,与上年同期相比,将增加9538.3万元至1.32亿元,同比增加 108.86%至151.09%。 ...
报复来了?特朗普威胁起诉摩根大通
Guo Ji Jin Rong Bao· 2026-01-19 09:04
当地时间1月18日,美国总统特朗普发出威胁,称将起诉摩根大通,指控该行在2021年1月6日国会 大厦骚乱后对其账户实施关闭或限制措施。 鲍威尔方面表示,美联储之所以成为攻击目标,根本原因在于其未同意特朗普大幅降息的主张。特 朗普则回应称,在上周末相关调查被媒体披露之前,他并不知情。 上周,戴蒙在接受记者采访时公开警告称,特朗普对鲍威尔的频繁抨击正在威胁美联储的独立性, 可能产生适得其反的效果,最终推高利率和通胀。 摩根大通已明确否认相关指控,称不存在因政治立场而终止客户服务的行为。 摩根大通发言人特里什·韦克斯勒在一份声明中表示:"为8000多万美国人提供服务是我们的荣幸。 我们也认同,任何人的账户都不应因政治或宗教信仰被关闭。我们赞赏本届政府已采取行动应对政治 性'去银行化',并支持这些努力。" 事实上,特朗普与摩根大通之间的紧张关系,正发生在其持续攻击鲍威尔的背景之下。 鲍威尔目前正因美联储华盛顿特区总部翻修项目涉及的所谓"滥用纳税人资金"问题,接受美国司法 部的刑事调查。 在摩根大通首席执行官杰米·戴蒙近期公开支持美联储主席鲍威尔的背景下,特朗普此举被外界视 为针对华尔街和美联储关键支持者的政治性报复。 ...
中文传媒:预计2025年净利润同比下降58.36%到65.07%
Guo Ji Jin Rong Bao· 2026-01-19 08:44
Core Viewpoint - The company expects a significant decline in net profit for the fiscal year 2025, projecting a net profit attributable to shareholders of between 26 million to 31 million yuan, which represents a decrease of 43.439 million to 48.439 million yuan compared to the previous year, equating to a year-on-year decline of 58.36% to 65.07% [1] Financial Projections - The company anticipates a net profit attributable to shareholders, excluding non-recurring gains and losses, to be between -39 million to -32 million yuan for 2025, indicating a reduction of 100.638 million to 107.638 million yuan compared to the previous year, resulting in a year-on-year decline of 146.62% to 156.82% [1]
金诚信:联合中标4.57亿元矿山采矿生产承包合同
Guo Ji Jin Rong Bao· 2026-01-19 08:27
Core Viewpoint - The company has recently signed several operational contracts with specific mining firms, indicating a strategic move to enhance its mining operations and revenue streams [1] Group 1: Contract Details - The company signed a mining production contracting agreement with Sichuan Xinyuan Mining Co., Ltd. for the fourth phase of mining operations, with a contract value of approximately 457 million yuan, effective from January 1, 2026, to December 31, 2028 [1] - Additionally, the company entered into a mining production stripping and outsourcing contract with Yunnan Chihong Zinc & Germanium Co., Ltd. for the Qilin plant's western section, with a contract value of about 107 million yuan, effective for the year 2026 [1]
明泰铝业:预计2025年净利润同比增长12%至14%
Guo Ji Jin Rong Bao· 2026-01-19 08:07
Core Viewpoint - The company Ming Tai Aluminum expects to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent company between 1.95 billion to 2 billion yuan for the year 2025, representing an increase of 202 million to 252 million yuan compared to the previous year, with a growth rate of 12% to 14% [1] Financial Performance - The anticipated net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses is projected to be between 1.7 billion to 1.75 billion yuan for 2025, which indicates an increase of 254 million to 304 million yuan year-on-year, translating to a growth rate of 18% to 21% [1]
龙源技术:预计2025年净利润为负
Guo Ji Jin Rong Bao· 2026-01-19 07:53
龙源技术公告,预计2025年度净利润为负,同比下降164.33%~149.01%。预计归属于上市公司股东的 净利润为-4200万元至-3200万元,扣除非经常性损益后的净利润为-4587.44万元至-3587.44万元,同比下 降183.95%~165.65%。报告期内,公司聚焦高质量发展,持续优化项目结构,强化项目实施全流程管 控,着力提升工程项目盈利能力。2025年度公司营业收入同比减少3.17亿元,下降24.83%,毛利率 22.02%,同比提升7.1个百分点,毛利润同比增加约2087.8万元,增长10.96%。 ...
极氪2025年度进阶:从国内领先到全球豪华市场新标杆
Guo Ji Jin Rong Bao· 2026-01-19 06:39
Core Insights - Zeekr is making significant strides in globalizing the Chinese luxury electric vehicle brand, achieving a presence in over 50 countries and regions with more than 640 stores worldwide by the end of 2025 [1][12] - The launch of the Zeekr 9 series at CES 2026 garnered global attention, receiving accolades from media and creating a surge in demand among high-net-worth individuals [1][3] Global Market Performance - Zeekr has established a collaborative development model across five continents, with notable success in Europe, Australia, Southeast Asia, and the Americas [7] - The Zeekr 001 has become the most popular Chinese luxury model in Germany and the UK, while the Zeekr 7X received over 1,000 orders in its first week in Australia [7] - In Southeast Asia, the Zeekr 009 has dominated the luxury MPV market, becoming the top-selling model in Thailand and Malaysia [7] Pricing and Demand Dynamics - Zeekr has successfully positioned itself in the international market with a "high price, high recognition" strategy, with the Zeekr 001 priced over 35% higher in Europe than in China [9] - The Zeekr 9X has sparked a "price increase reservation" trend in overseas markets, with significant markups reported in the Middle East and Southeast Asia [9][10] Customer Demographics - Approximately 80% of Zeekr's overseas customers come from traditional luxury brands like BMW, Benz, and Porsche, indicating a shift in consumer preference towards Zeekr [10] Technological Advancements - The Zeekr 9X features cutting-edge technology, including a unique 900V high-voltage architecture and the world's first hybrid megawatt electric drive system, achieving 0-100 km/h in just 3.1 seconds [4][12] - Zeekr's self-developed technologies, such as the G-AES automatic obstacle avoidance system, position it at the forefront of the luxury electric vehicle market [12][14] Strategic Vision - Zeekr's global strategy emphasizes a comprehensive approach, integrating research, production, sales, and service to build a robust competitive edge [14] - The company aims to redefine global luxury automotive standards, shifting consumer focus from brand loyalty to technological recognition [15]
B站公布2025百大UP主名单,2025年更新视频超4.9万条
Guo Ji Jin Rong Bao· 2026-01-19 06:35
Core Insights - Bilibili (referred to as "B站") released its list of the top 100 UP creators for 2025, aimed at encouraging original content creation and serving as a barometer for deep content in the video industry [1] Group 1: UP Creator Characteristics - The 2025 top UP creators collectively produced over 49,000 videos, with a total duration exceeding 990,000 minutes [3] - The UP creator "雨说体育徐静雨" led in video quantity with 6,334 videos, while "一数" topped in video duration with 18,000 minutes (approximately 300 hours) updated in 2025 [3] - Over 60% of the awarded UP creators have been active for more than 5 years, with 18 creators having over 10 years of experience; two creators have been active for 15 years [3] - The list also includes 27 new UP creators, with 12 having less than 3 years of experience, showcasing a balance of seasoned and fresh talent [3] Group 2: Awards and Recognition - The annual awards ceremony held at the Shanghai Grand Theatre recognized "老师好我叫何同学" for the best work for a video aiding disabled individuals, marking a return after 5 years [4] - "芳斯塔芙" won the award for best original series with "鬼谷说," while "罗翔说刑法" has been recognized as a top UP creator for six consecutive years [4] - New content categories like video podcasts awarded "最佳新人" to comedian 于谦 and host 罗永浩, with their respective shows achieving significant viewership [4] Group 3: User Engagement and Financial Performance - Bilibili's Q3 2025 report indicated an average daily active user count of 117 million, a year-on-year increase of 9%, and a monthly active user count of 376 million, up 8% [6] - The number of monthly paying users reached a record high of approximately 35 million, reflecting a 17% year-on-year growth [6] - The number of UP creators with over 10,000 followers increased by over 20% year-on-year, indicating a growing creator ecosystem [6] - Bilibili's CEO emphasized that the platform's focus on high-quality content is the primary driver of user growth and retention [6]
《关于支持长三角生态绿色一体化发展示范区高质量发展改革授权事项清单》印发
Guo Ji Jin Rong Bao· 2026-01-19 06:11
近日,上海市政府网站发布上海市人民政府江苏省人民政府浙江省人民政府印发《关于支持长三角生态 绿色一体化发展示范区高质量发展改革授权事项清单》的通知。全文如下: 上海市人民政府江苏省人民政府浙江省人民政府印发《关于支持长三角生态绿色一体化发展示范区高质 量发展改革授权事项清单》的通知 沪府发〔2025〕12号 上海市、江苏省、浙江省人民政府各委、办、厅(局),青浦区人民政府、苏州市人民政府、嘉兴市人 民政府,各有关单位: 现将《关于支持长三角生态绿色一体化发展示范区高质量发展改革授权事项清单》印发给你们,请认真 按照执行。 上海市人民政府 江苏省人民政府 三、支持示范区试点开展企业自主技能评价向产业链上下游延伸,鼓励示范区内社会化评价机构面向示 范区提供更高质量的技能评价服务。(责任单位:上海市人力资源社会保障局、江苏省人力社保厅、浙 江省人力社保厅) 四、支持示范区制定公共场所卫生备案工作标准和合规经营指南,推动相关标准统一。(责任单位:上 海市卫生健康委、江苏省卫生健康委、浙江省卫生健康委) 五、支持示范区成立"示范区中小学教研联合体",聚焦科学教育等领域,开展两区一县(青浦区、吴江 区、嘉善县)育人模式创 ...