2025.09.30 本文字数：2670，阅读时长大约4分钟 作者 |第一财经 樊志菁 受美国降息预期、对美国政府可能停摆的担忧以及地缘政治紧张局势升级影响，投资者选择涌入避险资 产，黄金价格周一首次突破3800美元，创下历史新高。纽约商品交易所12月交割的COMEX黄金期货结 算价上涨1.2%，报3855.2美元/盎司。市场分析认为，包括美元指数走弱、央行购买及黄金ETF热销等因 素或将继续主导未来的黄金走势。 多重利好助推 美国商务部上周五公布的数据显示，美联储最倚重的通胀指标核心个人消费支出（PCE）环比上涨 0.2%，同比稳定在2.9%。符合预期。 根据芝商所（CME）美联储观察工具（FedWatch Tool）的数据，交易员目前预计美联储在10月降息的 概率接近90%，12月再次降息的概率约为65%。 Capital分析师罗达（Kyle Rodda）表示："美国此次温和的通胀数据，让市场有理由相信美联储在年内 进一步降息。"他进一步分析称，"当前市场情绪非常乐观，本周金价有望再次测试历史新高。不过，目 前黄金市场的多头仓位较重，这可能成为未来金价上行需谨慎的一个原因。" 投资者也在关注美联储独立性问 ...

Market Overview - US stock market experienced an overall increase, with the Dow Jones rising by 68.78 points (0.15%) to 46,316.07, the Nasdaq up by 0.48% to 22,591.15, and the S&P 500 gaining 0.26% to 6,661.21 [2] - Notable tech stocks showed mixed performance, with Nvidia up 2.0%, Amazon up 1.1%, and Tesla up 0.6%, while Meta, Oracle, Apple, and Google saw slight declines [3] - Electronic Arts (EA) shares surged by 4.5% following the announcement of a $55 billion acquisition, marking the largest leveraged buyout attempt in history, with a 25% premium [3] - Western Digital shares increased by 8.8% after Morgan Stanley raised its target price for the data storage manufacturer [4] - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index rose over 2%, with Alibaba up 4.6%, JD.com up 3.3%, and Baidu up 2.7% [4] Commodity Prices - International oil prices fell significantly, with WTI crude down 3.45% to $63.45 per barrel and Brent crude down 3.08% to $67.97 per barrel, attributed to increased global oil supply [4] - Gold prices reached a new historical high, with COMEX gold futures for September delivery rising 1.18% to $3,820.90 per ounce [5] Economic Data - US existing home sales unexpectedly rose by 4% in August, reversing a 0.3% decline in July, driven by falling mortgage rates [7] - Oxford Economics indicated that as 30-year fixed mortgage rates approach 6%, the housing market is expected to stabilize and improve significantly [7] Government and Policy - The risk of a US government shutdown looms, with potential impacts on market performance if bipartisan agreement on spending bills is not reached [7][8] - President Trump announced a 100% tariff on movies produced outside the US and high tariffs on non-domestically produced furniture [8] - Federal Reserve officials expressed the need to maintain restrictive monetary policy to curb inflation, with the next meeting showing a 89% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut [9]

2025.09.30 本文字数：1160，阅读时长大约2分钟 作者 |第一财经 陈杨园 "已经很久很久没有产品在开售前会说卖多少个了，一切以开售情况为准。"正式开抢前，面对诸多关注 库存、担心抢不到货的消费者，泡泡玛特天猫官方旗舰店的主播解释道。9月29日晚十点，泡泡玛特"星 星人美味时刻系列"线上渠道正式开售，星星人现烤小饼干毛绒挂件和手办盲盒玩具摆件等同时开售。 又一场泡泡玛特引发的抢购热潮掀起。正式开售前，泡泡玛特抽盒机小程序直播观看人数达到56万，泡 泡玛特天猫官方旗舰店观看人数达到270.5万。 但与此前发布的迷你版LABUBU相比，星星人新系列的备货大幅减少。正式开售后，两款星星人系列 产品均为秒空。开售十分钟后，记者发现，天猫页面信息显示，小饼干毛绒挂件有超36万人加购，但首 批天猫官方旗舰店放货仅2万+件，手办盲盒玩具摆件显示已售3万+。此前，迷你版LABUBU开售当晚 显示已售30万+件。 1/5 共2款 > ¥59起 已售 2 万 + 天猫 POPMART 泡泡玛特星星人美味时刻系列现烤 小饼干毛绒挂件盲盒礼物 超36万人加购 合 POP MART/泡泡 ... 星星人 现货 品牌 IP ...

2025.09.30 本文字数：1617，阅读时长大约3分钟 作者 |第一财经 陈姗姗 9月27日，四川网红"唐飞机"驾驶飞行器坠机身亡的消息冲上热搜，据当地政府工作人员称，坠落的是 一台低空飞行器，当地正在对其持照、空域审批等情况展开调查。 事实上，"唐飞机"曾公开称其驾驶的是超轻型飞行器，而这种飞行器是不需要持照的。 其实不仅仅是超轻型飞行器，即使是有适航取证申请流程，依照民航局适航标准严格监管的更复杂的航 空器，也无法达到绝对的安全，尤其是在低空经济火爆的当下。 今年"五一"期间，一架R44Ⅱ型直升机就在某市上空飞行返航时，从距离地面十米左右的高度坠落，造 成4名机上人员受伤，1名地面人员死亡。 涉事的直升机是一款非常成熟的机型，飞机坠落在距离起降场50米的景区内，砸到了一名正在地面拍照 的游客。这一度导致民航华东地区管理局当即暂停了空中游览，体验飞行等通航运行，待局方组织监察 员进行安全评估后再恢复。 记者注意到，今年"五一"期间，包括海南，浙江，广东，四川，安徽，上海等多地都推出了低空游览项 目，尤其是直升机游览观光线路更是受到不少游客的追捧。 这背后是低空经济连续两年被写入政府工作报告的推动，多地 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in large purchase restrictions for money market and short-term bond funds is primarily aimed at protecting existing investors' interests and managing liquidity risks during the holiday period [2][4][5]. Group 1: Fund Purchase Restrictions - Over 100 funds have implemented large purchase restrictions in the days leading up to the holiday, with many set to resume on October 9 [2][4]. - Specific funds, such as Guoshou Anbao and Changjiang LeXiang, have announced limits on institutional investors' purchases, with caps of 10,000 yuan and 100,000 yuan respectively [3][4]. - The majority of restricted funds are low-risk products, particularly bond funds, which account for over 70% of the total [4]. Group 2: Reasons for Restrictions - The restrictions are intended to prevent large inflows from diluting the returns for existing investors, as bond interest continues to accrue during the holiday [5]. - There is also a concern about liquidity risks, as large withdrawals post-holiday could force fund managers to sell assets at unfavorable prices [5]. Group 3: Market Outlook - The A-share market is currently experiencing a period of adjustment, with a modest increase in major indices leading up to the holiday [6]. - Analysts suggest that the market's micro liquidity remains ample, and external risks are easing, which may support the A-share market moving forward [6]. - The focus for the fourth quarter includes monitoring consumer recovery, investment pressures, and persistent low inflation [6]. Group 4: Investment Strategies - Fund managers recommend focusing on technology and growth sectors, while also being cautious of potential market risks [9][10]. - The upcoming market dynamics may favor sectors such as consumer electronics and renewable energy equipment, driven by manufacturing upgrades [9][10].

作者 |第一财经 李娜 据知情人士透露，华为公司今天任命余承东为公司产品投资评审委员会（IRB）主任，任命文件由任正 非亲自签发。 2025.09.29 内部人士分析，余承东增任IRB主任，主要使命是带领华为打赢人工智能（AI）关键战役，取得全球领 先地位。多名受访内部人士表示，看好余承东掌管AI。余承东仍然担任华为常务董事、终端 BG 董事 长，掌管华为终端、鸿蒙智行等业务。 微信编辑| 小羊 第一财经持续追踪财经热点。若您掌握公司动态、行业趋势、金融事件等有价值的线索，欢迎提供。专 用邮箱：bianjibu@yicai.com （注：我们会对线索进行核实。您的隐私将严格保密。） 投资评审委员会的核心职能是对公司重大战略方向的资源投入、项目立项、预算审批等关键决策进行评 估与把控，确保资源向核心战略目标高效倾斜。 ...

2025.09.29 本文字数：3130，阅读时长大约5分钟 作者 |第一财经 王方然 "十一"黄金周前，香港尖沙咀海港城一如往年这个时候，人潮涌动。在这座汇集了全港多家保险机构网 点的地标里，拖着行李箱的内地访客穿梭于各大保险公司柜台前，签单、刷卡、投保……熟悉的场景年 复一年上演。 然而，与往年不同的是，一场深刻的行业变革正伴随着人流悄然进行。10月1日起，持牌保险经纪公司 向转介人支付的费用被划上"红线"——不得超过佣金总额的50%；而更深远的影响来自一项被业内称为 港版"报行合一"的改革：2026年起，分红险佣金支付周期将从首年集中支付调整为至少6年摊付。 监管利剑直指困扰行业多年的转介乱象。第一财经调查发现，在港险销售火爆背后，一条横跨两地的灰 色转介产业链日益猖獗。部分无牌转介人在内地揽客，并邀约至香港签单，部分保单首年佣金比例竟高 达90%。部分转介人向客户许诺高额返佣，这种畸形的商业模式不仅扭曲了市场竞争，更让"孤儿保 单"风险不断累积。 业内普遍认为，新规将从制度上压缩转介套利空间，过去依靠高额返佣肆意抢单的做法将难以为继。 转介费用不得超过佣金总额的50% "十一"长假来临，内地游客赴港投 ...

Core Insights - The increasing role of technological research and development (R&D) in driving economic growth is highlighted, with regional innovation being a crucial component for achieving innovation-driven development and addressing economic challenges [2] R&D Funding Overview - In 2024, total R&D funding in China reached 36,326.8 billion yuan, an increase of 2,969.7 billion yuan from the previous year, representing an 8.9% growth [2] - The R&D funding intensity, measured as a percentage of GDP, is 2.69%, up by 0.11 percentage points from the previous year [2] Regional R&D Investment - Six provinces (or municipalities) invested over 2,000 billion yuan in R&D: Guangdong (5,099.6 billion yuan), Jiangsu (4,597.5 billion yuan), Beijing (3,278.4 billion yuan), Zhejiang (2,901.4 billion yuan), Shandong (2,597.3 billion yuan), and Shanghai (2,343.7 billion yuan) [4] - Seven provinces (or municipalities) exceeded the national average R&D funding intensity: Beijing (6.58%), Shanghai (4.35%), Guangdong (3.60%), Tianjin (3.44%), Jiangsu (3.36%), Zhejiang (3.22%), and Anhui (2.76%) [2][4] Guangdong's R&D Leadership - Guangdong's R&D funding surpassed 5,000 billion yuan for the first time, maintaining its position as the top province for R&D investment for nine consecutive years [5] - The province's GDP reached 14.16 trillion yuan, accounting for 10.5% of the national economy, and it continues to lead in various economic indicators [5] Jiangsu's R&D Strength - Jiangsu ranks second in R&D funding with 4,597.5 billion yuan, supported by rich educational resources and a strong industrial base [6] Growth in R&D Funding - Twelve provinces (or municipalities) had R&D funding exceeding 1,000 billion yuan in 2024, consistent with the previous year [7] - R&D funding has increased by 179% from 2014, with the highest growth rates observed in provinces such as Hainan, Jiangxi, and Yunnan [7] Emerging Industries in Anhui - Anhui's new industries, including electric vehicles and integrated circuits, are experiencing significant growth, with electric vehicle production increasing by 94.5% to 1.684 million units [8] - The province is attracting talent and population inflow due to the rapid development of high-end manufacturing and emerging industries [8]

| | | | 截至12月31日止年度 | | | | 截至6月30日止六個月 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 2022年 | | 2023年 | | 2024年 | | 2024年 | | 2025年 | | | | 金额 | % | 金额 | % | 金融 | % | 金额 | % | 金额 | % | | | | | | | | | (未經審核) | | | | | | | | | | (人民幣千元,百分比除外) | | | | | | | EIIR產品 | 33,820 | 15.3 | 114,137 | 26.3 | 271,833 | 45.3 | 46,787 | 32.6 | 220,780 | 53.6 | | AI赋能的智能 | | | | | | | | | | | | 化產品 | 94.151 | 42.5 | 203.357 | 46.9 | 204.954 | 34.1 | 66.317 | 46.2 | 109,773 | 26.7 | | 模组類產品 ...

本文字数：2344，阅读时长大约4分钟 作者 |第一财经 韦薇 2025.09.29 三季度行将结束，今年美股已有28次创下历史新高。截至2025年9月25日，标普500指数9月（9月1日至9 月25日）的回报率为 +2.3% ，显著高于历史平均的-0.6%，并创下9月回报率新高。 市场人士纷纷感叹："世界这么乱，股市怎么还涨？"尤其是9月向来是美股季节性最差的一个月，但在 人工智能（AI）浪潮驱动下，美股逆势冲高，多家华尔街投行给出了标普500指数7000点以上的目标 位。美股四季度何去何从？AI主题能支撑大盘多久？美联储连续降息的预期能否实现？ 标普500指数迈向7000点？ 目前，多家华尔街投行持更为积极的观点。例如，年内高盛已经几度调升目标价，目前将标普500未来3 个月、6个月、12个月的回报预测分别调升至+2%、+5%、+8%，对应指数水平约6800点、7000点、 7200点。 尽管摩根士丹利仍维持6500点的基准情景假设，但该机构首席美股策略师威尔逊（Michael Wilson）多 次表示，7200点的牛市情景越发有可能实现。 威尔逊在发给第一财经的邮件中提及，劳动力数据疲软的局面是已过去还 ...