Market Overview - The U.S. stock market experienced a decline, with the Dow Jones down 1.23%, Nasdaq down 2.10%, and S&P 500 down 1.39% for the week [2] - European indices showed gains, with the FTSE 100 up 0.74%, DAX 30 up 0.78%, and CAC 40 up 0.46% [2] - Upcoming key data includes U.S. GDP, PCE inflation data, and the Federal Reserve's meeting minutes, which will help assess the likelihood of future interest rate cuts [2][3] Federal Reserve Insights - The recent non-farm payroll report indicated strong U.S. employment, with 130,000 jobs added in January, suggesting limited short-term rate cut potential [3] - However, lower-than-expected inflation data has reignited expectations for a rate cut, with the market fully pricing in a 25 basis point cut by July [3] - The Federal Reserve's meeting minutes are expected to clarify the debate between maintaining rates and supporting rate cuts [3] Legal and Trade Developments - The U.S. Supreme Court is set to announce a decision on the legality of the Trump administration's tariffs on February 20, with a 28% probability of supporting the tariffs according to market predictions [4] - A negative ruling could lead to over $130 billion in tariff refunds and reshape U.S. trade policy [4] Commodity Market Trends - International oil prices fell, with WTI down 1.04% to $62.89 per barrel and Brent down 0.44% to $67.75 per barrel, amid concerns over Middle Eastern tensions and OPEC+ production outlook [5] - Gold futures rose 1.43% to $5022.00 per ounce, and silver futures increased 1.45% to $77.851 per ounce, driven by expectations of lower interest rates [5][6] Economic Indicators in Europe - Upcoming PMI data for France, Germany, and the Eurozone will be crucial for assessing economic outlook, with expectations of slight improvements in services but a contraction in manufacturing [7] - Key indicators include Eurozone industrial output and Germany's ZEW economic sentiment index [7] UK Economic Data - The UK is set to release significant employment data and January CPI, with inflation remaining above the Bank of England's target at 3.4% [8] - The market anticipates a 63% probability of a rate cut by March, especially if inflation shows further signs of easing [8]

Group 1 - The core idea of the article is that Qianwen's initiative during the Spring Festival aims to integrate AI into everyday life rather than compete with others, with a strong belief that China will lead in AI applications globally [1] - Qianwen's promotional event on February 6 resulted in an unexpected success, achieving 15 million orders on the first day, which is 15 times the initial expectation [1] - The investment from Alibaba for this initiative significantly exceeded 3 billion [1]

2026.02.15 本文字数：2162，阅读时长大约3分钟 作者 | 第一财经 樊志菁 受所谓"AI恐慌交易"以及1月非农就业后美联储短期维持政策不变的概率上升影响，美国股市本周下 跌。 虽然华尔街迎来了投资者通常会乐见的宏观环境——就业增长稳健、通胀放缓，但由于市场对科技企业 成本与利润率压力的担忧抑制了乐观情绪，股市始终难以获得上行动能。 未来一周，科技股能否企稳，美联储降息预期是否强化或成为市场止跌与否的关键。 美联储降息预期小幅升温 下周投资者需要消化大量经济数据，整体表现喜忧参半。 月度零售销售数据表现疲软，去年12月零售销售环比持平，低于前值0.6%和预期0.4%。控制组（剔除 汽油、汽车、建材等波动项）环比下滑0.1%，预期上升0.4%。受此影响，亚特兰大联储GDPNow模型 对于美国去年第四季度GDP预测从上周的4.2%下修至3.7%。但零售月率此前已连续多个月表现强劲， 单一数据点未必代表趋势转变。 太平洋投资管理公司PIMCO经济学家维尔丁（Tiffany Welding）表示，通胀报告"表面上看相当令人鼓 舞"，主要有两个积极的进展。首先，自疫情以来一直持续上涨的住房价格，现在确实正在 ...

Group 1 - The US stock market experienced a decline this week due to "AI panic trading" and increased probabilities of the Federal Reserve maintaining its policy unchanged after the January non-farm employment report [1] - Concerns over cost and profit margin pressures for technology companies have suppressed optimism, despite a generally favorable macroeconomic environment characterized by steady job growth and easing inflation [1] - The ability of technology stocks to stabilize and the strengthening of interest rate cut expectations from the Federal Reserve will be critical for market recovery in the coming week [1] Group 2 - The retail sales data showed weakness, with December retail sales unchanged month-on-month, below the previous value of 0.6% and the expected 0.4% [2] - The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model revised its forecast for Q4 GDP from 4.2% to 3.7% due to the retail sales performance [2] - The January non-farm payrolls increased by 130,000, significantly above the market expectation of 65,000, with the unemployment rate dropping to 4.3% from 4.4% [2] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for January rose by 0.2% month-on-month, lower than the expected 0.3%, and the year-on-year increase was 2.4%, also below the expected 2.5% [2] Group 3 - Economic signals are mixed, with the January employment report contradicting the narrative of stagnant hiring, while retail sales data challenges the view of strong consumer spending [3] - The flattening of the US Treasury yield curve indicates a significant drop in long-term yields, with the 2-year yield approaching 3.40%, and the probability of two rate cuts this year nearing 90% [3] - The inflation report shows encouraging signs, particularly with housing prices slowing and tariff-related impacts diminishing, which may lead the Federal Reserve to consider rate cuts later this year [3] Group 4 - The recent signals are unlikely to persist, as the decline in retail sales may be a temporary pause following strong spending, and the sustainability of the significant increase in non-farm employment is questionable [4] - The cooling inflation data provides a favorable environment for the Federal Reserve to potentially restart rate cuts later in the year [4] Group 5 - The US stock indices fell over the past week, with investors continuing to reduce exposure to technology sectors, and the S&P 500 index turned negative for the year [5] - Concerns regarding the impact of new AI tools on specific industries have led to market volatility, initially affecting software and financial stocks, and later spreading to real estate and logistics sectors [5] Group 6 - The financial sector experienced the largest decline this week, down 4.8%, followed by communication services down 3.5%, and both non-essential consumer goods and technology sectors fell over 2% [6] - Utility stocks surged by 7.1% due to safe-haven inflows, while real estate and materials rose over 3% [6] Group 7 - The launch of AI tools by companies like Altruist and Anthropic has heightened fears of job displacement, leading to a cautious sentiment among traders regarding US stock exposure [7] - The sell-off pressure in the market is primarily driven by concerns over the disruptive effects of AI, affecting not only software stocks but also real estate and logistics [7] Group 8 - The significant decline in US Treasury yields typically serves as a bullish catalyst for the stock market, but bearish confirmation signals in the Nasdaq indicate potential further downside risks [8] - The volatility index (VIX) remains around 20, suggesting that the market is seeking protective measures and may maintain higher-than-average volatility in the short term [8]

上周国际市场风云变幻，贵金属市场延续巨震，AI抛售向其他板块蔓延。 市场方面，美股全线下挫，道指周跌1.23%，纳指周跌2.10%，标普500指数周跌1.39%。欧洲三大股指 走高，英国富时100指数周涨0.74%，德国DAX 30指数周涨0.78%，法国CAC 40指数周涨0.46%。 下周看点颇多。市场正等待美国国内生产总值（GDP）数据、个人消费支出（PCE）通胀数据，以及 美联储上次会议纪要，研判美联储下一次降息的可能时间。美国最高法院或公布特朗普政府关税合法性 决定。欧洲方面，重点数据包括欧元区及各国采购经理人指数（PMI）初值和英国通胀数据。亚洲方 面，因农历新年假期，多个市场休市。美国市场16日因总统日休市。 美联储公布会议纪要 上周公布的非农报告显示，美国就业数据表现强劲，1月新增就业13万人。强劲的就业市场表明，短期 内降息可能性不大。不过，随着美国通胀数据低于预期，也提醒投资者，尽管时点不确定，降息大概率 仍会到来。伦敦证券交易所集团（LSEG）数据显示，美国货币市场目前已完全定价美联储在7月降息 25个基点。 与此同时，市场将通过美联储会议纪要观察支持维持利率不变与支持降息的政策制定者之 ...

Core Insights - ByteDance officially launched Doubao-Seed-2.0, a significant upgrade to its AI model, which has evolved over the past year and a half, enhancing capabilities in text, multimodal understanding, deep reasoning, and agent execution [1][2] Model Features - Doubao-Seed-2.0 offers a full-stack model matrix, multimodal understanding, enterprise-level agent capabilities, and cost efficiency, positioning it among the global leaders in AI [1] - The flagship Doubao-2.0 Pro targets deep reasoning and long-chain task execution, directly competing with models like GPT 5.2 and Gemini 3 Pro [2] Model Variants - The Doubao-2.0 series includes Pro, Lite, and Mini versions, all featuring upgraded multimodal understanding and enhanced LLM and agent capabilities for real-world task execution [3] - The Pro version achieved top scores in various competitions, showcasing its advanced mathematical and reasoning abilities [3] Performance Metrics - Doubao-2.0 Pro excels in instruction following, tool invocation, and search agent evaluations, achieving a score of 54.2 in the HLE-Text test, significantly outperforming other models [4] - The model's pricing structure offers a competitive edge, with input costs at 3.2 yuan per million tokens for inputs under 32k and 16 yuan per million tokens for outputs, making it more cost-effective than competitors [4] Multimodal Understanding - The model's multimodal capabilities have been significantly enhanced, achieving top scores in visual reasoning, spatial perception, and long-context understanding tests [7] - Doubao-2.0's ability to process complex visual inputs and generate interactive content aligns closely with the advancements seen in Gemini 3 Pro [7][8] Strategic Positioning - The development of Doubao-2.0 reflects a broader industry trend towards creating AI that can understand and interact with the physical world, moving beyond mere language processing to executing complex real-world tasks [6][8]

目前，星火空间"烈焰-2号"电循环火箭发动机已完成首轮次点火试车，并通过电动泵取代传统的涡轮 泵，实现了该技术路线10吨级的推力。该公司称，试车过程中，发动机按照设计时序准确点火，点火器 和推力室压、振动等参数均维持稳定，并符合设计预期。 此外，基于中国更先进的电池技术产业基础，星火空间还将加速迭代优化新一代电循环发动机，并构建 国内首款电循环液体运载火箭"进化一号"。 当前，中国低轨星座组网迎来爆发，商业航天正迈向发展的新阶段。我国已申报了总规模超20万颗卫星 的频率与轨道资源。根据"先申报、先发射、先占用"的国际规则，须在一定期限内把一定比例的卫星发 上天。这意味着我国火箭运力、卫星产能、可回收技术急需实现迭代升级。 在这一背景下，国内一大批创业团队纷纷加速布局。合肥产投资本创业投资管理有限公司副总经理杨运 峰表示，电循环液体运载火箭未来将为卫星、小型航天器提供低成本、高可靠、快速响应的发射服务， 并支持商业卫星星座组网和补网发射。 2026.02.14 本文字数：1080，阅读时长大约2分钟 作者 | 第一财经 钱童心 2月14日，合肥星火空间科技有限公司宣布完成数千万天使+轮融资，累计融资超亿元。本轮 ...

2026.02.14 另外，4月1日起，奔驰与吉利合资公司smart全球首席营销官张明霞将出任奔驰销售公司销售执行副总 裁，奔驰汽车金融现任销售与市场营销负责人康毅将出任smart全球首席营销官，负责销售、市场及客 户运营业务。 微信编辑 | 格蕾丝 第一财经持续追踪财经热点。若您掌握公司动态、行业趋势、金融事件等有价值的线索，欢迎提供。专 用邮箱：bianjibu@yicai.com （注：我们会对线索进行核实。您的隐私将严格保密。） 本文字数：330，阅读时长大约4分钟 作者 | 第一财经 武子晔 2月14日，奔驰中国宣布重磅人事调整。段建军因个人原因离任奔驰销售公司总裁兼CEO，自2026年3月 1日起，奔驰销售公司销售执行副总裁李德思将接替这一职位。段建军将担任战略顾问，确保平稳有序 的工作交接，直至4月30日任期届满。 ...

（图片来源：Wind） 当地时间2月13日，现货黄金涨2.41%，重回5000美元上方，报5042.808美元/盎司，今年以来涨 16.78%；现货白银涨2.81%，报77.338美元/盎司，今年以来涨8.05%。 国际贵金属期货周五普遍收涨，Wind数据显示，COMEX黄金期货涨2.33%，报5063.80美元/盎司； COMEX白银期货涨2.10%，报77.27美元/盎司。 | | 国际贵金属 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 名称 | 现价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 年初至今 | | 伦敦金现 | 5042.808 | 118.504 | 2.41% | 16.78% | | 伦敦银现 | 77.338 | 2.114 | 2.81% | 8.05% | | COMEX黄金 | 5063.8d | 115.4 | 2.33% | 16.10% | | COMEX白银 | 77.270d | 1.588 | 2.10% | 8.86% | 2026.02.14 本文字数：268，阅读时长大约1分钟 微信编辑 | 格蕾丝 第一财经持续追踪财经热点。若您掌握公 ...

2026.02.14 本文字数：1973，阅读时长大约3分钟 作者 | 第一财经 樊志菁 本周，市场对AI开支过高的担忧仍然挥之不去。投资者正强烈抵制科技巨头激进的人工智能投入计 划，导致 "七巨头"股价大幅下挫。亚马逊股价连续下挫，华尔街担忧大规模投入将使亚马逊在2026年 成为云业务巨头中首个出现自由现金流为负的公司。 首家自由现金流为负的云巨头？ 自上周发布财报以来，亚马逊股价已经连跌九个交易日，创2006年以来最长纪录，正式跌入技术性熊 市，即从重要高点下跌20%及以上。周五该股进一步失守200美元，较11月3日254美元的历史收盘价下 跌近23%。 亚马逊由此成为继微软之后，第二家跌入熊市的 "七大科技巨头"成员。微软股价在1月29日步入熊市， 此前一天该公司公布的Azure云业务增速不及市场预期。截至本周收盘，微软股价较10月28日542.07美 元的历史收盘价下跌超过1/4。 亚马逊规模庞大的人工智能投入计划并未获得投资者认可。尽管投资者对亚马逊AI战略与云业务增长 节奏不匹配的质疑从去年就已出现，但该公司仍加倍押注这一方向。在四大云服务巨头中，亚马逊、微 软、Meta与谷歌2026年AI资本开 ...