2025.09.29 本文字数：3130，阅读时长大约5分钟 作者 |第一财经 王方然 "十一"黄金周前，香港尖沙咀海港城一如往年这个时候，人潮涌动。在这座汇集了全港多家保险机构网 点的地标里，拖着行李箱的内地访客穿梭于各大保险公司柜台前，签单、刷卡、投保……熟悉的场景年 复一年上演。 然而，与往年不同的是，一场深刻的行业变革正伴随着人流悄然进行。10月1日起，持牌保险经纪公司 向转介人支付的费用被划上"红线"——不得超过佣金总额的50%；而更深远的影响来自一项被业内称为 港版"报行合一"的改革：2026年起，分红险佣金支付周期将从首年集中支付调整为至少6年摊付。 监管利剑直指困扰行业多年的转介乱象。第一财经调查发现，在港险销售火爆背后，一条横跨两地的灰 色转介产业链日益猖獗。部分无牌转介人在内地揽客，并邀约至香港签单，部分保单首年佣金比例竟高 达90%。部分转介人向客户许诺高额返佣，这种畸形的商业模式不仅扭曲了市场竞争，更让"孤儿保 单"风险不断累积。 业内普遍认为，新规将从制度上压缩转介套利空间，过去依靠高额返佣肆意抢单的做法将难以为继。 转介费用不得超过佣金总额的50% "十一"长假来临，内地游客赴港投 ...

Core Insights - The increasing role of technological research and development (R&D) in driving economic growth is highlighted, with regional innovation being a crucial component for achieving innovation-driven development and addressing economic challenges [2] R&D Funding Overview - In 2024, total R&D funding in China reached 36,326.8 billion yuan, an increase of 2,969.7 billion yuan from the previous year, representing an 8.9% growth [2] - The R&D funding intensity, measured as a percentage of GDP, is 2.69%, up by 0.11 percentage points from the previous year [2] Regional R&D Investment - Six provinces (or municipalities) invested over 2,000 billion yuan in R&D: Guangdong (5,099.6 billion yuan), Jiangsu (4,597.5 billion yuan), Beijing (3,278.4 billion yuan), Zhejiang (2,901.4 billion yuan), Shandong (2,597.3 billion yuan), and Shanghai (2,343.7 billion yuan) [4] - Seven provinces (or municipalities) exceeded the national average R&D funding intensity: Beijing (6.58%), Shanghai (4.35%), Guangdong (3.60%), Tianjin (3.44%), Jiangsu (3.36%), Zhejiang (3.22%), and Anhui (2.76%) [2][4] Guangdong's R&D Leadership - Guangdong's R&D funding surpassed 5,000 billion yuan for the first time, maintaining its position as the top province for R&D investment for nine consecutive years [5] - The province's GDP reached 14.16 trillion yuan, accounting for 10.5% of the national economy, and it continues to lead in various economic indicators [5] Jiangsu's R&D Strength - Jiangsu ranks second in R&D funding with 4,597.5 billion yuan, supported by rich educational resources and a strong industrial base [6] Growth in R&D Funding - Twelve provinces (or municipalities) had R&D funding exceeding 1,000 billion yuan in 2024, consistent with the previous year [7] - R&D funding has increased by 179% from 2014, with the highest growth rates observed in provinces such as Hainan, Jiangxi, and Yunnan [7] Emerging Industries in Anhui - Anhui's new industries, including electric vehicles and integrated circuits, are experiencing significant growth, with electric vehicle production increasing by 94.5% to 1.684 million units [8] - The province is attracting talent and population inflow due to the rapid development of high-end manufacturing and emerging industries [8]

| | | | 截至12月31日止年度 | | | | 截至6月30日止六個月 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 2022年 | | 2023年 | | 2024年 | | 2024年 | | 2025年 | | | | 金额 | % | 金额 | % | 金融 | % | 金额 | % | 金额 | % | | | | | | | | | (未經審核) | | | | | | | | | | (人民幣千元,百分比除外) | | | | | | | EIIR產品 | 33,820 | 15.3 | 114,137 | 26.3 | 271,833 | 45.3 | 46,787 | 32.6 | 220,780 | 53.6 | | AI赋能的智能 | | | | | | | | | | | | 化產品 | 94.151 | 42.5 | 203.357 | 46.9 | 204.954 | 34.1 | 66.317 | 46.2 | 109,773 | 26.7 | | 模组類產品 ...

本文字数：2344，阅读时长大约4分钟 作者 |第一财经 韦薇 2025.09.29 三季度行将结束，今年美股已有28次创下历史新高。截至2025年9月25日，标普500指数9月（9月1日至9 月25日）的回报率为 +2.3% ，显著高于历史平均的-0.6%，并创下9月回报率新高。 市场人士纷纷感叹："世界这么乱，股市怎么还涨？"尤其是9月向来是美股季节性最差的一个月，但在 人工智能（AI）浪潮驱动下，美股逆势冲高，多家华尔街投行给出了标普500指数7000点以上的目标 位。美股四季度何去何从？AI主题能支撑大盘多久？美联储连续降息的预期能否实现？ 标普500指数迈向7000点？ 目前，多家华尔街投行持更为积极的观点。例如，年内高盛已经几度调升目标价，目前将标普500未来3 个月、6个月、12个月的回报预测分别调升至+2%、+5%、+8%，对应指数水平约6800点、7000点、 7200点。 尽管摩根士丹利仍维持6500点的基准情景假设，但该机构首席美股策略师威尔逊（Michael Wilson）多 次表示，7200点的牛市情景越发有可能实现。 威尔逊在发给第一财经的邮件中提及，劳动力数据疲软的局面是已过去还 ...

Group 1 - A significant number of funds have recently implemented large purchase restrictions ahead of the holiday, with over 100 funds initiating such measures in the last ten days [1][3] - The restrictions are primarily aimed at protecting existing investors' interests and maintaining fund stability, as large inflows could dilute returns during the holiday period when bond interest continues to accrue [2][3] - Specific funds, such as Guotai Junan and Changjiang Asset Management, have set limits on large purchases, with some capping institutional investments at 100,000 yuan and others at 1 million yuan, with a planned resumption of operations on October 9 [2][3] Group 2 - The A-share market has shown a relatively calm performance compared to the previous year, with only a 1.06% increase in the four trading days leading up to September 29, contrasting sharply with a 21% rise during the same period last year [1][3] - Analysts suggest that the current market is in a consolidation phase, with a focus on core sectors that show resilience and strong consensus among investors [1][5] - The upcoming fourth quarter is expected to present investment opportunities, with key areas of focus including limited consumer recovery, investment pressures, and persistent low inflation [5][6] Group 3 - Historical data indicates that bond funds have a high probability of positive returns in the five trading days following the holiday, with short-term bond fund indices showing a 100% probability of positive returns from 2016 to 2024 [4] - The current market environment is characterized by a "slow bull" trend, with ongoing adjustments seen as a healthy consolidation that supports long-term market sustainability [6][7] - The technology sector is identified as a core focus for future investment, with opportunities in consumer electronics, semiconductor equipment, and various power equipment sectors expected to benefit from manufacturing upgrades [7][8]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the significant rise in gold prices, driven by factors such as expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and a weakening dollar, leading to historical highs in both international and domestic gold prices [1][2][3] - The price of gold has increased by approximately 40% year-to-date, with domestic gold prices reaching around 1100 yuan per gram, which is about 400 yuan higher than at the beginning of the year [1][2] - The demand for gold jewelry remains strong, particularly during the wedding season, with some consumers opting to purchase at high prices while others took advantage of price dips earlier in the year [1][2] Group 2 - The rising gold prices have led to a noticeable shift in consumer behavior, with increased interest in platinum and silver as alternative options due to their lower prices compared to gold [3][4] - Platinum prices have surged, with year-to-date increases of 84%, while silver has also seen significant gains, with a 61.8% rise, indicating a growing trend of consumers considering these metals for jewelry purchases [3][5] - The market for platinum and silver is expected to continue growing, with projections indicating a 10% increase in global platinum demand by Q1 2025 [5][6] Group 3 - Analysts suggest that the current market conditions present a dilemma for investors between "chasing high prices" and "locking in profits," especially with the upcoming long holiday and uncertainties surrounding Federal Reserve policies [2][5] - Investment strategies are recommended to include gradual increases in gold allocations during market corrections, as the long-term outlook for gold remains positive [2][5] - The distinction between purchasing precious metal jewelry and investing in precious metals is emphasized, as jewelry often incurs high labor costs and significant depreciation upon resale [6]

2025.09.29 本文字数：2358，阅读时长大约4分钟 作者 |第一财经 冯迪凡 特朗普政府近期宣布的对进口重型卡车征收关税25%的消息，又往德国汽车业脆弱的现状上泼了一盆凉 水。 而德国最大的汽车零部件供应商博世(Bosch)宣布未来五年将裁减1.3万个岗位的消息，"是最后一记警 钟，刺痛了德国的工业心脏。"德国巴登-符腾堡州经济、劳工和旅游部长妮可·霍夫迈斯特-克劳特 （Nicole Hoffmeister-Kraut）如此表示。 据报道，面对德国汽车疲于应对特朗普关税、销量下滑以及利润预警之际，德国总理默茨计划于10月9 日主办一场汽车峰会，预计德国多位部长、州长、主要制造商和供应商以及员工代表都将出席。 对外经济贸易大学法国经济研究中心主任、巴黎索邦大学博士生导师赵永升接受第一财经记者采访时表 示，以目前的德国经济数据和现状来看，德国经济仍然没有走出危机的迹象，作为欧洲"经济火车头"， 考虑到关税影响以及经济产业结构的调整，彻底复苏可能要等到2026年之后。 来源：新华社 博世敲响最后警钟 高盛的一份报告显示，德国DAX指数的行业结构在2025年发生根本性转变，曾经占主导地位的汽车及 零部件行业 ...

Core Viewpoint - Suzhou Huichuan United Power System Co., Ltd. (stock code: 301656) has officially listed on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange's ChiNext board, aiming to become a global leader in intelligent electric vehicle components and solutions [1] Industry Overview - The automotive industry is a key area in China's modernization efforts, with new energy vehicles (NEVs) being a strategic direction for development, enhancing manufacturing competitiveness and contributing to global green development [1][3] - Since the 18th National Congress, China has established a national strategy for NEV development, implementing over 70 supportive policies, leading to significant historical achievements in the industry [3] Company Development - United Power focuses on technological innovation in core components of NEVs, achieving self-research and large-scale application of key parts and software algorithms, thus enhancing the localization rate of upstream components [4][6] - The company has developed a multi-product, multi-level, and multi-disciplinary core technology matrix, holding 98 invention patents and 407 utility model patents, and has participated in numerous national-level research projects [7] Market Position - United Power has a strong market presence, with its electric control products holding approximately 10.1% market share, electric motor products at 11.3%, and drive assembly products at 7.1% in the Chinese NEV market [8] - The company has established deep cooperation with 8 out of the top 10 NEV manufacturers in China and is one of the earliest domestic suppliers to achieve large-scale exports to international mainstream automotive manufacturers [8][9] Financial Performance - From 2022 to 2024, United Power has developed hundreds of electric drive system solutions for over 40 customers, with cumulative shipments exceeding 7.7 million units, significantly outpacing industry growth [9] - The company plans to use IPO proceeds for projects related to core component production, R&D center construction, and digital system development, which will enhance its competitive edge and support the growth of China's NEV industry [9] Future Outlook - United Power aims to continue focusing on core technological innovation and global development, contributing to high-quality development of China's NEV sector and supporting national energy security and carbon neutrality goals [9]

Core Viewpoint - The new policy financial tool, with a total scale of 500 billion yuan, aims to support project capital and stimulate effective investment in the economy [1][2][3] Group 1: Policy Financial Tool Overview - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) is actively promoting the new policy financial tool to enhance financial services for the real economy and expand effective investment [1] - The new tool was proposed in the Central Political Bureau meeting in April 2025 and has been the focus of training and project application meetings in various provinces since May [1][2] Group 2: Investment Focus Areas - The new policy financial tool will primarily target key areas such as digital economy, artificial intelligence, low-altitude economy, infrastructure in the consumer sector, green and low-carbon transition, agriculture, transportation, logistics, and municipal and industrial parks [2] Group 3: Economic Impact and Projections - The new financial tool is expected to leverage investments of approximately 6 trillion yuan, which is about 24.4% of the total infrastructure investment in 2024 [3] - If the 500 billion yuan tool is implemented in the third quarter, it could potentially expand broad credit by about 4.4 trillion yuan and increase infrastructure investment growth by 3-4 percentage points annually over the next three years [2][3] - Following the introduction of the previous policy financial tool in 2022, infrastructure investment growth surged from 0.2% to 11.5%, with projected growth rates of 8.2% and 9.2% for 2023 and 2024, respectively [3]

Core Insights - The S&P 500 index has shown a remarkable performance in September, achieving a return of +2.3%, significantly above the historical average of -0.6%, and marking a new high for September returns [1] - The ongoing AI wave is driving the market upward, with several Wall Street firms projecting the S&P 500 index to exceed 7000 points [1][3] - The market is currently in a transitional phase of rolling recovery, with expectations for corporate earnings growth to surpass forecasts [3][4] Market Predictions - Goldman Sachs has raised its return forecasts for the S&P 500 to +2%, +5%, and +8% over the next 3, 6, and 12 months, corresponding to index levels of approximately 6800, 7000, and 7200 points [3] - Morgan Stanley maintains a baseline scenario of 6500 points but acknowledges the increasing likelihood of a bullish scenario reaching 7200 points [3] Earnings Growth - Earnings growth is identified as a primary support for the bull market, with 54% of the S&P 500's year-to-date increase attributed to earnings growth [4][5] - The current market lacks extreme speculative phenomena, and the basic valuation remains favorable compared to previous years [4] AI Industry Focus - The AI industry chain is recognized as the core driver of the current bull market, with its extensive ecosystem expected to sustain upward momentum for the overall index [6][7] - Recent strategic partnerships, such as NVIDIA's collaboration with OpenAI, have significantly influenced market sentiment and stock prices [7][8] Investment Sentiment - Despite concerns about overvaluation in AI-related stocks, the fundamental outlook remains strong due to relatively cheap capital and the Federal Reserve's decision to lower interest rates in a high-inflation environment [8] - Market participants are divided on strategies to navigate the current overbought conditions, with experienced traders typically opting to wait for a pullback [9]