瑞士凭借政治稳定、账户长期顺差、低负债、低通胀等优势，数十年稳居核心避险货币。当前中东冲突 升级、全球贸易紧张及AI企业估值争议推升避险情绪，资金流入瑞郎资产，为其汇率提供阶段性支 撑。 瑞士经济呈"出口疲软+内需支撑"分化格局。瑞士经济联合会预测，2026年GDP增速从2025年1.2%放缓 至1.0%，科技、制表等出口行业销售额下滑，失业率升至3.0%，削弱瑞郎基本面支撑。低利率推动房 价上涨提振内需，部分抵消出口疲软影响，且瑞美关税争端达成协议，缓解外部压力。 机构普遍认为，2026年瑞郎维持强势震荡，多空博弈下波动有限。荷兰国际银行指出，瑞郎持续走强或 触发央行重启负利率，但短期受政策副作用与政治约束，概率较低，且2026年通胀预计仅0.4%，难以 驱动政策调整。 汇率预测方面，瓦利昂银行预计美元兑瑞郎全年在0.79-0.81区间波动，瑞银认为美元难进一步大幅走 弱，圣加仑州立银行警示，美联储独立性担忧加剧或致汇率跌至0.75。欧元兑瑞郎以横盘为主，赖费森 银行预测年底回落至0.91，走势取决于欧盟复苏及德国基建投资落地。 整体而言，2026年瑞郎强势格局有望延续，政策稳定性与避险属性提供支撑，但出口 ...

Group 1 - The Japanese yen has been depreciating significantly since the beginning of 2026, with the USD/JPY exchange rate reaching 159.45, the lowest in 18 months, due to political uncertainty and policy contradictions [1] - Prime Minister Fumio Kishida's announcement of a snap election on January 23 has raised concerns about continued aggressive fiscal expansion, contributing to market fears and speculation that the yen could fall to 165 [1][2] - The Bank of Japan's recent interest rate hike to 0.75% has failed to stabilize the yen, as the interest rate differential with the US remains over 2.75%, leading to increased pressure on the yen [2] Group 2 - The depreciation of the yen has led to rising import costs for energy and food, exacerbating inflation and putting pressure on small and medium-sized enterprises [2] - The upcoming election results are expected to influence the yen's future trajectory, with predictions that a victory for the ruling party could further weaken the yen, while a loss might trigger a safe-haven appreciation [3] - Official interventions in the currency market have only had short-term effects, highlighting the challenge for Japanese authorities to balance exchange rates, inflation, and fiscal sustainability [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the Euro is currently under pressure against the US Dollar, primarily due to strong US economic data and a robust Dollar index, despite positive industrial output data from the Eurozone [1][2]. - Eurozone industrial output for November increased by 0.7% month-on-month and 2.5% year-on-year, exceeding market expectations, but this improvement is seen as insufficient to reverse the overall downtrend of the Euro [2]. - The Dollar index has recently stabilized above 99.25, providing strong support for the Euro's downward trend, with market expectations for the Federal Reserve to maintain interest rates in the 3.50%-3.75% range [1][2]. Group 2 - The Eurozone's economic recovery is perceived as lacking momentum, with the manufacturing PMI indicating weak manufacturing sentiment, which contributes to the Euro's inability to sustain upward momentum [2]. - The current trading environment is characterized by a "strong Dollar pressure + limited Eurozone positives" scenario, with short-term downward risks dominating [2]. - Traders are advised to closely monitor US economic data and Federal Reserve statements, as well as Eurozone economic indicators, to assess the potential for a trend reversal in the Euro [3].

Group 1: Currency Trends - The Australian dollar (AUD) has shown narrow fluctuations, reaching a high of 0.68 against the USD on January 7, 2025, before stabilizing between 0.6680 and 0.6706 as of January 14, driven by policy divergence between Australia and the US, economic resilience, and commodity support [1] - The AUD is expected to experience a "first dip then rise" trend in 2025, influenced by international risk events and monetary policy, with fluctuations anticipated in the first quarter due to a stronger USD and heightened risk aversion [1] - In the second quarter, the AUD faced pressure from Trump's "reciprocal tariffs," dropping below 0.60 before stabilizing above 0.64, while the second half of the year is projected to see recovery supported by Fed rate cut expectations and commodity stabilization [1] Group 2: Economic Indicators - Australia's GDP growth is projected to be 1.4%, 2%, and 2.1% year-on-year for the first three quarters of 2025, with private demand recovering to offset a slowdown in public demand [1] - The unemployment rate has remained low at 4.3% for five consecutive months, providing a foundation for economic stability [1] Group 3: Inflation and Monetary Policy - Inflation has become a focal point, with the overall CPI rising to 3.2% year-on-year in Q3 2025 and further increasing to 3.8% in October, exceeding the Reserve Bank of Australia's target range of 2%-3%, which has weakened previous rate cut expectations [2] - The RBA maintained the benchmark interest rate at 3.6% for three consecutive meetings, with indications that rates may remain unchanged or increase in 2026, providing a stable foundation for the AUD [2] - The divergence in monetary policy between the RBA and the Federal Reserve has been a key driver of AUD volatility, with the Fed maintaining a hawkish stance and expectations of no immediate rate cuts [2] Group 4: Commodity Prices and Trade - The AUD's performance is closely linked to commodity prices, with significant fluctuations in Australia's export value influenced by gold and resource prices, which rebounded after hitting a low in August 2025 [3] - Predictions indicate that coal prices will rise by 5%-7% in 2026, supported by strong demand for iron ore from Chinese infrastructure projects, providing additional support for the AUD [3] - Australia's trade surplus reached AUD 7.31 billion in July, reflecting ongoing resilience in foreign trade and boosting market confidence in the AUD [3]

摘要今日周五(1月16日)亚盘时段，现货黄金最新报价为030.75元/克，较前一交易日下跌3.05元，跌幅 0.30%，日内呈现高位回调走势。当日开盘价报1034.27元/克，盘中最高触及1035.18元/克，最低下探至 1029.20元/克。 今日周五(1月16日)亚盘时段，现货黄金最新报价为1030.75元/克，较前一交易日下跌3.05元，跌幅 0.30%，日内呈现高位回调走势。当日开盘价报1034.27元/克，盘中最高触及1035.18元/克，最低下探至 1029.20元/克。 【要闻速递】 据报道称，美国总统特朗普正推迟对伊朗实施军事打击的决定，目前正就行动时机及能否实质性动摇伊 朗政权，与内部团队及盟友进行磋商。尽管军事选项仍被保留，但美方及盟友对行动风险存在深刻分歧 ——既想惩罚伊朗，又担心引发大规模报复。 在此期间，美军一方面从中东基地撤离部分非必要人员，另一方面向该地区增派"亚伯拉罕.林肯"号航 母打击群。过去48小时内，以色列总理内塔尼亚胡与特朗普通话，请求暂缓行动，为应对伊朗可能的报 复争取准备时间，并认为美方原计划的打击力度或不足以动摇伊朗政权。 特朗普此前多次表示，若伊朗继续杀害反政府 ...

Group 1 - The core issue for the Federal Reserve is determining the optimal size of its balance sheet after halting the reduction of $6.5 trillion [2] - The "trilemma" faced by the Fed involves balancing a smaller size, low interest rate volatility, and minimal market intervention, with only two of these goals achievable at a time [2] - The Fed's balance sheet expanded from approximately $800 billion twenty years ago to $8.9 trillion at its peak in June 2022, primarily due to responses to the 2008 financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic [2] Group 2 - There is currently no consensus on the appropriate steady-state size of the balance sheet among economists and policymakers [3] - The strong U.S. dollar has significantly impacted the gold market, making gold more expensive for overseas buyers and suppressing demand [4] - Despite adverse factors, gold prices have shown a resilient performance, remaining above the 5-day moving average, indicating potential for continued strong fluctuations [4]

摘要今日周四(1月15日)欧市时段，冰岛前总统格里姆松警告，美国若武力夺取格陵兰将引发西方联盟 与国际秩序的"史无前例"危机，虽短期未推高金价，但强化了"国际秩序碎片化"这一黄金长期牛市核心 逻辑。1月15日亚市，现货黄金震荡下行跌0.65%，因伊朗镇压相关杀戮减少、无大规模处决计划，地 缘风险有所缓解，但前一交易日仍创4642.77美元历史新高，现交投于4595美元附近，长期看涨趋势未 改。 今日周四(1月15日)欧市时段，冰岛前总统格里姆松警告，美国若武力夺取格陵兰将引发西方联盟与国 际秩序的"史无前例"危机，虽短期未推高金价，但强化了"国际秩序碎片化"这一黄金长期牛市核心逻 辑。1月15日亚市，现货黄金震荡下行跌0.65%，因伊朗镇压相关杀戮减少、无大规模处决计划，地缘 风险有所缓解，但前一交易日仍创4642.77美元历史新高，现交投于4595美元附近，长期看涨趋势未 改。 【基本面解析】 冰岛前总统格里姆松警告，美国若武力夺取格陵兰将给西方联盟和全球秩序带来"有生以来未见"的严重 后果。特朗普持续强化对格陵兰的控制言论，称其是美国国家安全核心，甚至表示"除非格陵兰成为美 国一部分，否则不可接受"。 他 ...

【现货方面】 【供需方面】 供应：截止1月15日，因浙石化PX装置有降负，国内PX负荷降至89.4%（-1.5%），亚洲PX负荷至80.6% （-0.7%）。 需求：截止1月15日，独山300万吨重启提负中，新材料360万吨装置停车，PTA负荷至76.9% （-1.3%）。 【行情展望】 PX高效益下国内外PX工厂提负生产，目前亚洲及国内PX负荷均处于历史高位，1月PX供应维持高位； 需求来看，元旦后终端开工继续下滑，高供应弱需求且高亏损下聚酯工厂压力将逐步凸显，继上周下游 聚酯减产消息集中发酵后，本周涤纶长丝新一轮减产开启。预计1季度PX和PTA整体供需较预期有所转 弱，预计春节前上游PX价格高位震荡为主。不过2季度供需偏紧预期下，预计PX下方空间有限。策略 上，PX短期关注7000附近支撑，中期低多对待；PX5-9低位正套为主。 1月15日，亚洲PX价格跌幅较明显。一方面原料端宽幅震荡走低，成本表现弱势以及下游PTA期货走 低，使得PX商谈水平下滑。同时基于PX自身供应增加的长周期压力，和部分工厂检修变动传闻，均自 供应端施压。现货方面，2、3月现货月差维持在-2，浮动价浮动企稳，2月在-6/-5，3月维 ...

需求：截至1月15日，瓶片涉及到一套35万吨装置重启和一套40万吨装置降负一半，两套长丝装置停车 检修，综合聚酯负荷下降至89.9%（-0.9%）。江浙终端开工率局部调整，加弹、织造、印染负荷分别为 70%（-2%）、55%（-1%）、70%（+1%）。织造端整体新单氛围依旧不佳，但零星如吴江市场有倍捻 相关订单提升，春夏服装面料类为主。上周末在原油和成本上涨氛围带动下，带动部分终端备货少或者 有意向备货年后原料的客户进行原料采购，但也有一部分客户计划原料耗尽后停车过年，因此目前终端 原料备货两级分化。目前，生产工厂备货少的在5-15天不等，主要就是备货年前所需部分；备货多的依 旧在1-2个月，含部分年后所用。 【现货方面】 1月15日，PTA期货震荡下跌，现货市场商谈氛围一般，现货基差走强。1月货在05贴水60~68附近商谈 成交，价格商谈区间在4975~5110。2月上在05贴水60成交，2月下在05贴水50有成交。3下在05贴水25 成交。主流现货基差在05-64。 【利润方面】 1月15日，PTA现货加工费至390元/吨附近，TA2603盘面加工费356元/吨，TA2605盘面加工费340元/ 吨。 ...

Group 1: Market Overview - Rebar prices are weakening while hot-rolled coil prices are slightly stronger, with a price difference of 160 yuan per ton between rebar and hot-rolled coil [1] - Tangshan steel billet remains stable at 3040 yuan, with Shanghai rebar at 3130 yuan per ton and hot-rolled coil at 3290 yuan per ton [1] Group 2: Costs and Profits - Coking coal prices are rising, and iron ore continues a strong trend, providing some support for steel prices despite a seasonal demand slump [1] - Current profit margins from high to low are steel billet > rebar > hot-rolled coil [1] Group 3: Supply Dynamics - Steel production is increasing slightly as mills resume operations, but iron output has decreased, indicating a potential seasonal reduction in production [1] - Weekly iron output decreased by 1.5% to 2.28 million tons, with total production of five major materials increasing by 0.62% to 8.192 million tons [1] Group 4: Demand Trends - Seasonal demand is declining, but there was a slight recovery in demand this week, with total demand for five major materials increasing by 29.3% to 8.26 million tons [1] - Rebar demand decreased significantly, while hot-rolled coil demand remained at a slightly higher level [1] Group 5: Inventory Levels - Rebar inventory has shown fluctuations, while hot-rolled coil inventory continues to decrease [2] - Total inventory for five major materials decreased by 6.9% to 12.47 million tons, with rebar inventory at 4.38 million tons and hot-rolled coil inventory at 3.624 million tons [2] Group 6: Industry Outlook - Steel production increases are minimal, and while demand has improved slightly, the market remains within a seasonal framework of weak supply and demand [3] - December steel exports remain high, influenced by some export rush, and steel prices are expected to follow raw material fluctuations [3] - Price ranges for rebar and hot-rolled coil are projected at 3050-3250 yuan and 3200-3350 yuan respectively [3]