Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that achieving a high success rate in trading is not solely dependent on technical methods, but rather on personal understanding and expectations of success, particularly in the context of breakthrough trading strategies [1][2]. Group 1: Breakthrough Trading Insights - Historical data shows that most breakthrough mechanical trading systems have a success rate below 50%, with many under 43%, indicating the inherent challenges of this trading approach [1]. - Achieving a success rate above 50% is rare, with even renowned traders like Mark Minervini only reaching 55%, suggesting that traders must be mentally prepared for the difficulties of breakthrough trading [1]. - The article suggests that if a trader desires a higher success rate, they should consider abandoning breakthrough trading strategies in favor of low-buy models, which historically yield higher success rates [1]. Group 2: Risk Management and Control - Alexander Elder's perspective highlights that after a stock price breaks a resistance level, the key differentiator for successful traders is their risk control and management, rather than the trading strategy itself [2]. - The article stresses that breakthrough trading focuses on the expected risk-reward ratio rather than the success rate, and emphasizes the importance of minimizing mistakes through disciplined trading practices [2]. Group 3: Key Trading Strategies - The article outlines several key strategies for successful breakthrough trading: - First, identifying the main trend and leading stocks is crucial, as only a small portion of industries and leading stocks have a high probability of successful breakthroughs [2]. - Second, traders should observe and accumulate favorable stocks for breakthrough trading, waiting for the optimal trading moment while adhering to strict discipline [2]. - Third, traders should avoid being swayed by market emotions and popular sayings, ensuring that the tools used for trading are validated and backtested [3]. - Lastly, it is advised to act on significant volume breakout points early in the base reversal phase, as the risk increases with delayed actions [3].

也是如实记录一下自己的观察所得，不作为推荐、建议，以及不作为任何有促进交易的意思和冲动。 首先，重点的医药和医疗方向，还在继续扩散，创新药板块上周刚刚突破160日横盘结构，成交量释放并没有出现过于暴躁的现象，RSR行业也跟随刚刚 翻红，最近两天开始的缓慢回调应该是个不错的切入时机，如下图： 通达信研究行业分类中创新药最集中的是其它生物制药细分类别，也拿出来佐证一下： 宠物饲料细分也出现了回调，尤其是中宠的阴线幅度和成交量都有点大，这块可能暂时要休息，但是值得引起注意的是猪饲料这块，带动的非常不错，买 猪猪不如买猪饲料：海大集团和邦基科技： 然后就顺带说一下农药细分，和饲料都属于农业链么。利民股份一马当先，已经进入加速区： 创新药方向的趋势锚应该是在科创板中，除了百济神州这种大块头之外，具有更强趋势特征的，我认为是：艾力斯和益方生物： 这个分类中的个股更加浓缩精华，板块指数的走势和量价舒展信号更加清晰明了，RSR翻红也更早，这种窄幅箱体+突破的阶梯式上升曾经使舞蹈演员尼 古拉斯达瓦斯成就交易传奇。 后面扩散过程中，我比较关注的个股是： 医药这块就讲这么多，应该全是精华。接下来说说日常消费，首饰分类周四出现超量反 ...

Group 1 - The article expresses a short-term bearish outlook due to the exhaustion of mid-term and short-term emotional resources, indicating a need for a return to replenish momentum [1] - The emotional indicators suggest a potential decline in the 40-day emotional line, which may lead to a colder emotional zone, possibly dropping to freezing levels [2] - The index is expected to decline gradually rather than sharply, as the recent volume decline slope has become more moderate, indicating a likely smoother index pullback [3] Group 2 - The overall market structure is viewed optimistically, with the first phase of horizontal consolidation lasting approximately 160 days, similar to previous bull market phases [3] - The article emphasizes the importance of managing stocks during periods of market fluctuations, as individual sectors and stocks may progress structurally despite index volatility [5] - Key investment themes identified include high dividends, consumption, semiconductors, computing power, and robotics, which are expected to persist throughout the bull market [5]

比较简单的依据之一，40周期情绪指标已经逼近沸点，也即中周期的情绪动量即将耗尽： 和上一波段的动量衰减模式一样，即将迎来变盘节点。暂时不去期待科技方向接力消费，暂时采取坚壁 清野策略。 比较简单的依据之二，板块和个股的RS背离值全部为负值（排序就可以看到），也即短期动量储蓄也 已经耗尽，实无介入安全性可言。 连续小涨了三天，且温和放量，给人感觉似乎有点起色了，但本ID认为此处风险远大于机会。 多个方面可以佐证。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of consumer sectors as the current core investment theme, highlighting the need for strategic observation and analysis to identify potential investment opportunities [1]. Group 1: Investment Strategies - The article discusses methods for identifying low-entry opportunities during market pullbacks, specifically through momentum principles [1]. - Two previously introduced methods for assessing pullback opportunities include evaluating price volatility and volume shrinkage [1]. - A third method is introduced, focusing on momentum assessment through RSline divergence, which indicates potential upward movement despite overall price declines [2]. Group 2: Technical Analysis - The RSline divergence is explained as a situation where the stock price declines faster than the market index, leading to a positive RSline, which suggests a potential price increase [2]. - The article provides a quantitative approach to describe the divergence by calculating the slope differences between RSline and stock price movements [2]. - Specific examples illustrate how to identify buying opportunities based on positive divergence values and negative price slopes at short-term lows [3]. Group 3: Practical Considerations - The article notes that while low-entry strategies may take longer, they reduce the risk of stop-losses and increase win rates [3]. - It emphasizes the necessity of evaluating signals within a broader time frame to ensure accuracy in trading decisions [3].

翠华珠宝后起之秀，锋芒不让 菜百股份稳扎稳打步步为营，堪为教科书案例 多研究领涨股，以及它们的行业归属和联动性。 潮宏基的早期领涨，奠定首饰分支的主锚位置，完美的猛兽轮廓侧写 如上图，首饰行业指数的价格、成交量、动量VAD都是一致峰峰攀高，整个市场如此完美的结构独此一份。 这就是本ID在量价系列文章中探讨过的宏观舒展结构，有此结构不涨都难。 整个蛰伏过程，单从价格形态看，看不出任何端倪的，但是价、量、动量结合起来评估，就能体会其中之妙。 一阶段和二阶段的转折点，RSR恰逢其时地翻红，伴随二次超量突破后，开启单边扬升。 与此配套的是首饰类别中多只个股一季报报喜，而当前涨得最好的就是它们。 曼卡龙的完美吸筹过程和攻击韵律 ...

我看评论区有人留言，需要对机器人、军工、游戏这些方向的评估。可以说一下。不过，您为什么要指定用量价方法呢？我的核心方法可是动量分析哦， 单从量价是很难推导走势的。 机器人板块，我一直有重点跟踪，之前的文章中经常会提及，最近总锚之一北特科技有走强迹象，应该是个好的征兆，但是大多数个股仍然在阴跌之中， 我们来看一下图： 记得我在讲3C突破的时候说过，当时的量价关系是局部多头舒展的，右侧后量大于前量，有利于继续上行，但同时也提醒过，50日均线已经凸形反转， 很可能反弹高度在凸形区受阻，事实后来就是在这个位置上不去了。那么受阻位置形成了一个成交量的峰值，这个峰值比3月份大跌前的峰值低，这样就 构成宏观结构上的憋屈，意味着大趋势可能转向，即便后续有大行情，必定也是要经过长时间的磨砺。 现在就是在不断缩量阴跌，量能已经接近前底量，价格落在3C突破那天的位置，整体看还算有秩序，不算溃不成军，此处发生反弹是有可能的，但不要 期望过高，除非50日均线像北特科技那样走平且反转，才可以多一些乐观。 军工板块，我跟踪比较少，就整体看一下国防军工这个大类吧： 5.12日发生过一次超量冲高，也就是印巴打仗那件事情催化了一下，随后就是快速 ...

从趋势角度看，消费（包括医疗）还处于扩散期，锚定标杆不断新高，扩散品种不断增加。 虽然本ID不反对以题材为核心的板块跟踪方法，但仍然建议以行业板块为核心跟踪，尤其是试图学习 趋势交易的群体。 今天上午消费各分支继续延伸向上的空间，联动效应极强，单日涨幅排行TOP10几乎全部占榜，属于精 神鸦片的游戏板块也有多只股票转强。 创新药继续保持强势，强度一哥舒泰神以中等的换手率继续保持高速进攻斜率： 消费总锚 万辰集团再次倍量突破窄幅整理平台： ...

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the importance of short-term and long-term strength ranking as a daily review task for identifying strong stocks in current market trends [1] - It highlights the use of OVS and SSV indicators for sorting stocks, capturing the strongest stocks in both short-term and long-term perspectives [1][3] Group 1: Short-term and Long-term Stock Ranking - Short-term ranking using OVS indicator identifies the strongest stocks among current market hotspots, capturing stocks related to stablecoins and innovative pharmaceuticals [1] - Long-term ranking using SSV indicator reveals stocks with strong long-term trends, including top innovative pharmaceutical companies [1] Group 2: Indicator Definitions and Applications - OVS indicator utilizes a 3-day cycle of volume-price accumulation to assess current explosive strength, suitable for stocks showing continuous upward trends [3] - SSV indicator employs a 200-day cycle of volume-weighted moving average deviation to measure the strength of a stock based on its price angle relative to the moving average, suitable for institutional trend targets [3] Group 3: Stock Performance Data - The article provides a list of top-performing stocks based on the short-term OVS ranking, including companies like 舒泰神 (Shutai Shen) with a market cap of 69.49 billion and a price change of -17.39% [2] - It also lists stocks from the long-term SSV ranking, showcasing companies like 益方生物-U (Yifang Biological) with a market cap of 113.34 billion and a price change of 0.76% [2] Group 4: Indicator Suitability - OVS ranking is more suited for speculative trading and quantitative targets, while SSV ranking is tailored for institutional investment strategies [3]

如上图，我们不看它后来怎么飙升，只看它3月份大盘大幅度下跌期间的表现，是不是完全的逆向运动？且 后量大于前量（成交量峰峰比较），RSline和 RSR同步急速拉升，RSline创了年高，RSR翻红保持高值。 如果单从形态看，这能看出个啥，你怎么知道它会不会涨，甚至会涨这么牛逼？这不怪你有没有魄力，有没有勇气，本质上就是找不到清晰可凭的依据， 或者思维中尚未形成扎实的体系。 而在股魔的体系中，相对强度+量价关系+走势结构，缺一不可，给出了可行的指南，再结合这一阵子消费大主线的整体背景，买支点或者支点之后的回 调，大抵是不会错的，即便没买到会稽山这样的飙股，也多少会有收获，4月份大盘反弹之后消费大类中不少这种三者皆优的股票。 按照历史经验，似乎每一轮牛市，机构和游资都不会缺席消费和医疗。熊市逆向运动的本质是危机中吸筹，是主动性行为，在股价运动的第一阶段最为明 确示强，预示第二阶段转折即将到来。 前几天的更新中多说了一些消费类别的案例，要点在于锚定物的标杆作用，以及个股——行业类别——大盘指数之间的相对强弱关系。 不妨来复习一下《股票魔法师2》第七章中的一个小节： 如何正确运用相对强度 。我感觉很多人会忽略这个环节 ...