Group 1 - The article discusses the current market sentiment, indicating a sense of impending danger and volatility, particularly related to trade wars and their impact on market dynamics [1][2] - It emphasizes the importance of momentum signals in predicting market movements, suggesting that these signals often precede significant market events or news [2] - The author notes a historical pattern where mid-term adjustments typically take around 3 to 5 months, although this is not guaranteed and should be observed as the situation evolves [2] Group 2 - The article highlights a shift from traditional MACD indicators to Larry Williams' volume-price analysis (VAD), suggesting that volume information is as critical as price in understanding market movements [2] - It reflects on human behavior in trading, where traders often struggle to act rationally despite knowing the market dynamics, leading to emotional decision-making [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that technical analysis is not inherently useless; rather, it is often misapplied or misunderstood. The current market signals indicate increasing risks, necessitating a reduction in stock holdings and positions [1]. Group 1: Market Analysis - Recent market movements show a divergence between the strong performance of the Shanghai Composite Index and the underlying technical indicators, suggesting a potential top divergence [1]. - The market's support relies heavily on specific sectors such as computing power, energy storage, and metals. A decline in these sectors could lead to significant market downturns [1]. - The brokerage sector is described as dependent on retail investor sentiment, with overall trading volume indicating a lack of substantial growth potential [1]. Group 2: Technical Indicators - The article notes that despite a recent volume breakout in the Shanghai Composite Index, there are concerns about the sustainability of this upward movement due to underlying divergence signals [1]. - The average stock price index shows a divergence in volume and price, indicating a potential peak in the near term [1]. - Market sentiment remains low, with most stocks experiencing downward pressure, while only a few sectors and stocks continue to show strength [1]. Group 3: Psychological Factors - Many investors are trapped in a mindset of expecting new leading sectors to emerge quickly, but the reality is that new leaders often arise from periods of correction [2].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the cyclical nature of the metals and chemicals industry, emphasizing that these sectors typically perform well during the second phase of a bull market, driven by monetary easing and inflation expectations, as well as demand growth from economic recovery [4]. Group 1: Industry Performance - The metals and chemicals sectors are identified as strong cyclical industries that usually do not miss out on bull markets, particularly during the second phase of such markets [4]. - Recent financial reports indicate a recovery in performance for many companies within these sectors, suggesting a positive trend in earnings [4]. Group 2: Market Behavior - Retail investors are cautioned against impulsive buying during market peaks, as this can lead to increased stress and potential losses [3]. - The article highlights the importance of reflecting on missed opportunities, particularly during initial entry points and during low-volume pullbacks [4]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The article notes that the main themes in the market are likely to continue evolving, with fluctuations and rotations occurring within established themes rather than new ones emerging [4]. - It suggests that the current market phase is characterized by residual momentum, indicating that while there may be opportunities, they are part of a broader cyclical pattern [4].

Group 1 - The article discusses the correlation between stock price movements and earnings performance, emphasizing the importance of understanding the details of each phase in the four-stage theory of market cycles [1][2] - Historical experiences indicate that the first and third phases are characterized by speculative trading, while the second phase focuses on earnings growth, and the fourth phase highlights the advantages of dividends and cross-market arbitrage [1][2] - The current market phase, starting from June 8, has shifted towards a focus on companies with solid earnings, moving away from speculative stocks that have been historically unprofitable [1] Group 2 - The second phase of the economic cycle is a response to recovery, with the first recovering industries receiving the most attention [2] - The third phase reflects the residual effects of economic prosperity, where high-growth earnings reports continue, but core company stock prices may have peaked, leading investors to seek undervalued companies [2] - The fourth phase sees a shift towards stability, with a preference for high-dividend stocks and cross-market arbitrage as investors become more risk-averse [2]

这类VCP结构也被称为上升三角形收敛，是看多结构。 主板指数能雕刻得这么标准，也算是相当的厉害。 如果按照这个图形发展，大的突变节点应该在节后不久的某一天，那一天应该是缩量很厉害。 ...

Market Overview - The market is currently experiencing a serious adjustment, with diminishing profit effects across previously leading sectors, indicating a potential cycle of rebirth after a thorough evaluation [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index is undergoing a horizontal structure after a clear upward trend, with a slight divergence at the 3899.96 point [3] - The CSI A500 index has shown a three-top divergence structure, historically a strong bearish signal [4] - The ChiNext Index also exhibits a three-top divergence, suggesting similar bearish implications [5] Sector Analysis - The leading sector, the network connection and distribution sector, has shown a decline in momentum despite previous highs, indicating a phase of profit-taking [6] - The PCB sector lacks a divergence structure but shows increasing bearish pressure, suggesting potential profit-taking risks [7] - The consumer electronics sector, led by major stocks like Hon Hai Precision Industry and Luxshare Precision, has shown a slight downturn after a strong performance [7] - The lithium battery equipment sector has reached a three-top divergence, indicating a poor risk-reward ratio [8] - The inverter sector, particularly led by Sungrow Power Supply, is nearing its peak performance [10] - The semiconductor equipment sector has not yet shown divergence but is entering a critical phase, suggesting reduced risk-reward expectations [11] - The gaming sector has also reached a divergence stage, with recent leading stocks showing bearish signs [13] - The lithium battery sector is experiencing a three-top divergence, although some companies are seeing performance reversals and increased orders [14] Technical Indicators - The momentum indicators for leading and heavyweight stocks are showing signs of decline, indicating a potential end to the upward trend [15] - The Shanghai Composite Index is expected to have a limited pullback, possibly forming a VCP structure, with optimistic expectations for price consolidation around key moving averages [15]

Group 1 - The article discusses the use of pivot points in stock selection, emphasizing their practical application in trading strategies [1] - It defines pivot points based on price patterns and volume indicators, integrating the "Beast Momentum System" for more effective trading [1] - The article also introduces the concept of low entry points, focusing on extreme volume reduction and price pullback exhaustion, which serve as practical references for timing buy-ins [1] Group 2 - The article highlights the importance of timing in stock selection but stresses that it should not replace the stock selection process itself [1] - It references previous articles for further reading on stock selection processes and the use of strength indicators [1]

你觉得呢？ 窃以为算力的方向，仍然指向大盘的方向。算力的调整周期约等于大盘的调整周期。 ...

台风桦加沙来临前的两天，环卫工人忙着修理道旁的植物，许许多多树枝被砍掉，这好比股市风暴来临前的止损：先砍掉一些枝叶总比连根拔起好。 但仔细观察，并不是每棵树都需要修理，被砍得光秃秃的都是弱小的个体，健壮的大树基本是不怎么动它的。 今天的业绩信仰中，集合竞价就看到甘李药业的跳空一字板，一查公告，原来是签大单了。优质的公司就是这样，容易爆出好消息，产品好，好事多，K 接着，半导体材料迅速跟随设备的示范效应，神工股份封死20cm，这又是一只高速增长，而且也是连续四个季度高速增长，K线上昨天出的枢轴点： 昨天盘后枢轴点选股，如果有看中这只的，应该水平还不错。 然后就是高纯度靶材处于垄断地位的江丰电子，这个票业绩一向不错，但是二季度出现负增长，出现负增长当然要去扒一扒的，K线上没有任何提前信 号： 还有就是老相好上海新阳，业绩稳定增长，K线上前些日子有枢轴点信号： 线上提前两天出现了枢轴点信号： 枢轴点只是择时信号，无法代替选股。 选对股票再择时。如何选对股票？势和锚是基础功课。新来的同学不妨读读猛兽股研究合集中的锚定三篇。 开盘以后，长川继续高开高走，但这种凌空飞扬肯定不敢介入的，而业绩跳空之前的枢轴点介入其实也的确 ...

如果信仰业绩增长，那么这样的机会就可能把握到。随着这波半导体行情的推进，此票连续出现了超量突破年高、枢轴点和一阳指信号。今天又突然来了 一个业绩跳空，20CM一字板。 这家公司连续数个季度一直保持着高速增长，虽然增速有所波动，但始终在高速增长的范畴。茫茫股海，没有舍何来得。 股市的神奇在于：信仰什么就可能赚什么的钱。 ...