Group 1 - The transformation of stocks into "dragons" requires special qualities, and those who can navigate the market effectively are considered exceptional [3] - Stocks that exhibit clear mainline trends and tight structural movements are identified as potential high-performing stocks, reflecting human behavior that remains constant over time [3] - Emotional indicators show a downward trend, indicating a high probability of success in trading, which can be seen as a useful tool for investors [3] Group 2 - The market sentiment can fluctuate significantly, with some investors only reacting to larger market movements, such as a 500-point drop, rather than smaller changes [2] - The potential retirement of a prominent figure in the market could have significant implications, suggesting that not all investors rely on technical analysis for decision-making [2] - Historical high-performing stocks serve as valuable lessons for current market participants, as they often follow similar patterns of behavior [3]

Core Viewpoint - The main investment themes have remained consistent over the years, despite surface-level fluctuations in the market. Understanding the underlying logic of each market phase is crucial for identifying investment opportunities and risks [1][2]. Group 1: Historical Market Phases - From 1990 to 2005, the market experienced broad growth driven by capital and technology influx, as well as labor force benefits, leading to a general rise and fall [2]. - Between 2000 and 2015, the real estate sector and the internet surged, primarily benefiting from land resources, which revealed structural changes in the market and the interconnections within the industrial chain [2]. - The period from 2010 to 2025 is characterized by accelerated infrastructure development, the proliferation of mobile internet, and the emergence of new energy sources, indicating increasingly evident structural changes and transitions in the market [2]. - Looking ahead to 2020-2035, significant industrial shifts are expected, with a transition from importation to exportation, rapid AI development, an aging population, declining birth rates, and an increase in robotics, presenting greater challenges and uncertainties [2]. Group 2: AI and Technological Advancements - The advancement of AI is profound, with a current gap in computing power despite early solutions in electricity supply. North America leads in computing power but faces increasing electricity shortages, indicating a dual demand in both areas [2]. - The development of AI glasses requires not only mature AI technology but also non-invasive brain-machine interface technology, which would allow for a shift from finger interaction to thought-based interaction, surpassing current smartphone capabilities [3]. Group 3: Stock Market Dynamics - Stock price increases are not merely a result of chart patterns but are fundamentally justified by the underlying value of the stocks. Historical bull stocks serve as valuable lessons, and current bull stocks are following similar patterns due to the unchanging nature of human behavior [4]. - Key characteristics of successful stocks include clear mainline logic, compact structural trends, and repeated breakthroughs above resistance levels [4].

据说今年春晚，AI四巨头要登台PK，各放大招，自媒体都在提前预期AI应用要火，但我实不知他们所 说的AI应用是个啥。 北美只有谷歌全栈布局AI，国内是阿里，芯片、大模型、应用，全链条开发，而且做得都还不错，阿 里可以对标谷歌，还是马云的视野和格局更放得开。大格局的公司才值得格局，这是我目前的看法。 1.14日的推文中，我提到了行情会可能切换到业绩预告和涨价逻辑，这半个月基本就是这个调调，有色 呼啸而起。后面应该还是这个调调，当然可能换换口味，或者含金量又换作含科量？有没有既涨价又业 绩预喜还从低位启动的含科量？ AI赛道，要见到100倍大牛，才算见证有史以来最伟大的技术变革，才算见证10年一遇的大牛行情。 （倒推10年是2015年，再倒推10年是2005年，是啊，人生有几个10年可以等待） 每次我把后台私信的AI自动回复关闭一段时间，再开启后，它就会变得更聪明一点，这是为什么？是 因为它会闭门思过？还是腾讯的开发进度真的很快？ 我发现有个新来不久的同学，昨天后半夜还在和AI私信互动，我大致看了一下互动列表，感觉AI这次 已经完全领会了猛兽动量系统，回答得很好，至少脾气比我好多了，而且只有少量的BUG。 现在我 ...

Core Insights - The book "Emergence" by John Holland reveals that breakthrough phenomena are not directly created but emerge from countless simple interactions and repetitions, transitioning from chaos to order [1] - The theory of emergence suggests that stock market success cannot be constructed like a building; instead, it requires the establishment of a self-organizing system that fosters positive emergence [1] Summary by Sections Transition of Thinking - Trust in simple rules and continuously iterate in practice, ensuring these rules align with first principles and demonstrate positive returns over time and across large datasets [1] - Shift from seeking immediate feedback to cultivating long-term patience, as significant market movements often occur in clusters and pulses, with transformations happening during seemingly dull or frustrating periods [2] - Move from fear of losing control to appreciating the unknown and accepting imperfection, as the future cannot be fully predicted; embracing moderate uncertainty is essential for creating new possibilities [2]

领导要波动率适度，所以涨得不能太快，但也不要跌得太多，所以就涨它个十几天，再 盘它个两三个月 ，刹车油门两边控制。 金属团体翻船，含金量不香了，又轮到含科量香了？ 无论如何，我再也不发图了，我只要不发，就不会有人找我麻烦，反正看得懂的从字面 也能看得懂，看不懂的给他图其实也不懂。 历史牛股是最好的教科书，而当下的牛股正在按相似的步调行进， 这是因为人性不变 。 它们的基本特征是：主线脉络清晰明了，走势结构紧凑，反复突破平台上行。 郑重声明：本文股票案例仅供学习交流使用，既无推荐之意，也不能作为买卖参考。 更多精彩内容，请关注同名公众号：猛兽派选股 自从9.24行情发动之后，每次回调都是三连阴点头刹，再给点油，再点头刹，如此几番，窄幅横盘结构 就出来了。看平均股价指数，很清楚。 理论上，情绪三线今天上午已经向下紧密粘合，这个V翻应该是成立的，短期的高胜率点，该加油了， 即便今天V翻失败，明天亦可。 每次点刹以后，一般会切换主题、板块。创业板前面涨少了，貌似要补补。光连这块，天孚、联特、长 飞、亨通这些纷纷创了新高。 又云：CPO起来了，PCB还会远吗？于是东材涨停了，真憋太久了，一不小心苟在里面一个多月了。 ...

Group 1 - The market is experiencing forced selling pressure, leading to fluctuations and reversals in upward trends, indicating the competitive nature of trading [1] - The performance of precious metals has unexpectedly surpassed that of aerospace stocks, demonstrating a strong momentum and concentration of funds, which is unprecedented in previous bull markets [1] - The main force of quantitative trading is held by institutions, which have clear targets for both attacking and supporting stocks, reflecting human behavior's consistency in market trends [2] Group 2 - Current bull stocks are following similar patterns to historical bull stocks, characterized by clear main lines, compact structural trends, and repeated breakthroughs of resistance levels [2]

Group 1: Lier Chemical - Lier Chemical is a global leader in chlorinated pyridine herbicides and a leading company in glyphosate and refined glyphosate, with products sold in over 30 countries and regions [1] - The core growth logic is driven by the accelerated ban on glyphosate, with the market size for glyphosate expected to grow from 3 billion yuan in 2020 to 8 billion yuan in 2025, representing a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 22% [1] - Lier Chemical is the second company globally and the first in China to master the industrialization of cyanopyridine chlorination technology, with a total production capacity exceeding 50,000 tons per year, achieving full production and sales [1] - The company has a market share of over 70% globally, with more than 80% of its sales coming from long-term supply agreements, and both product categories are currently in a price increase cycle [1] - The company has seen its performance improve by over 100% for three consecutive quarters [1] Group 2: Shandong Heda - Shandong Heda is the absolute leader in cellulose ether in China and a core supplier of plant capsules globally, with raw materials sourced from cotton, wood, and bamboo [2] - The focus is on medical-grade and food-grade cellulose ether, with profit margins reaching 25% to over 35%, particularly for medical-grade cellulose ether, which sees annual price increases and growing margins [2] - The company has established long-term supply agreements with major domestic pharmaceutical companies such as Heng Rui and Shi Yao, as well as international firms like Pfizer, Novartis, and Bayer, supplying 15 out of the top 20 global pharmaceutical companies [2] - The global capsule market is over 30 billion yuan, with the share of plant capsules expected to increase from 15% in 2020 to 30% in 2025, reflecting a CAGR of over 20% as a clear trend to replace gelatin capsules [2] - Shandong Heda has a domestic production capacity of 20 billion capsules per year, with a $500 million investment in the U.S. to build a project with the same capacity, expected to be operational by Q3 2026 [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the non-ferrous metal market is expected to continue expanding, potentially impacting rare earth elements as well [2] - The mining machinery sector is closely linked to tungsten, which is essential for drilling and has applications in PCB manufacturing [2] - Historical bull stocks serve as a valuable reference, with current bull stocks following similar patterns due to unchanging human behavior [3] Group 2 - The article highlights that various metals such as gold, tungsten, silver, copper, aluminum, tin, molybdenum, zinc, lithium, and lead are experiencing price increases, indicating a significant market movement [1] - The mining machinery sector is beginning to accelerate, with companies like Nepe entering a second phase of growth [2] - The characteristics of successful stocks include clear mainline trends, compact structural movements, and repeated breakthroughs in price levels [3]

Core Viewpoint - The article indicates a shift in strategy, as the author will no longer share new source codes or graphical analyses, focusing instead on past content and encouraging independent learning among readers [1]. Group 1 - The author has achieved the initial goal of sharing source codes and systems over the past two years, leading to notable performance improvements for some individuals who engaged with the content [1]. - A common trait among successful individuals is their ability to think independently and engage in discussions about underlying logic rather than fixating on specific signals [1]. - The article highlights a persistent issue in the stock market, where a large number of inexperienced investors (referred to as "韭菜") hinder overall market prosperity, making it challenging for even a small fraction to succeed [1].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the refined trend template for stock selection, emphasizing the use of quantitative methods and moving averages to identify potential investment opportunities in the stock market [2][3]. Group 1: Trend Definition and Improvement - The definition of trend is based on moving averages and the relationship between current prices, minimum, and maximum prices, with a focus on relative strength thresholds [2]. - The article highlights the limitations of simple moving averages due to their lagging nature and proposes the use of a 200-day moving average combined with volume-weighted price averages to enhance accuracy [2]. - The revised trend template includes specific conditions for stock selection, such as current price being within 68% of the highest price in the last year and at least 20% above the lowest price in the last year [3]. Group 2: Stock Selection Criteria - The article outlines a momentum-based stock selection method that includes criteria such as current price being above the 150-day and 200-day moving averages, and the 150-day moving average being above the 200-day moving average [4]. - Additional criteria include the current price being at least 25% higher than the 52-week low and not lower than 75% of the 52-week high, with a relative strength rating ideally around 90 [4]. - The stock selection process can be adjusted by modifying the thresholds of the relative strength conditions to determine the number of stocks that meet the trend template [3][4].