两大关键变量即将搅动美股市场。 首先是，美联储降息预期的变数。 在降息预期持续升温的背景下，下周发布的一系列宏观数据备受市场关注，其中包 括，美联储最青睐的通胀指标——美国7月个人消费支出价格指数（PCE）。有分析指出，这份通胀数据可能不会成为美 联储9月降息的阻碍，但高于预期的通胀将会打压9月之后的降息预期。 其次是，"AI总龙头"英伟达的财报。 根据日程安排，英伟达将于下周三公布最新的财报数据。有分析警告称，若英伟达 的业绩或业绩指引不及预期，将会迅速传导至整个AI产业链，美股科技股或将再度遭遇猛烈抛售，美股市场将难以维持 涨势。 美联储降息预期的变数 另外，美国二季度实际GDP年化季环比修正值、7月耐用品订单数据也将在下周陆续公布。 目前来看，美联储在9月议息会议上启动降息已经是大概率事件。芝商所美联储观察工具显示，9月降息25个基点的概率 目前已升至约89%。 8月23日，高盛固定收益部门（FICC）交易员Rikin Shah等表示，在杰克逊霍尔会议之前，市场一直处于观望状态。鲍威 尔的最新表态已为9月降息开了绿灯，特别是在最近的就业数据修正引起美联储对就业市场关注的背景下。 高盛交易员认为，如果美国 ...

美股周四普遍下挫，标普500指数连续第五个交易日下跌，投资者在美联储主席鲍威尔周五的讲话前保持谨慎，市场交投气氛趋于观望。市场普遍期待鲍 威尔在杰克逊霍尔经济年会上释放有关利率政策的信号，这可能成为未来数周市场走势的关键转折点。 标普500指数下跌0.4%，收于6370.17点；纳斯达克综合指数下跌0.34%，收报21100.31点；道琼斯工业平均指数下跌152.81点，跌幅0.34%，收在44785.50 点。三大股指均录得明显回落，延续本周以来的弱势表现。 然而，7月联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）会议纪要显示，大多数决策官员依然担忧通胀和劳动力市场的状态，并认为"现在降息仍然过早"。值得注意的 是，美联储理事克里斯托弗·沃勒（Christopher Waller）与米歇尔·鲍曼（Michelle Bowman）反对维持利率不变。这是自1993年以来首次出现两位现任理事 在利率决策上持反对意见，显示联储内部的分歧正在加深。 市场人士普遍认为，鲍威尔的讲话若偏向鸽派，确认9月可能启动降息，将缓解市场担忧并带来提振；但若他保持谨慎甚至偏鹰派，则可能引发新一轮抛 售。 "当前股票估值已经非常高，而投资者对鲍威尔在 ...

分析师预计，由于中国业务面临重大不确定性，英伟达三季度业绩指引可能不及市场预期，而这一业务本可为英伟达带来20亿至30亿美元的增量收入。 KeyBanc Capital Markets的最新报告显示， 英伟达对下一财季的指引中可能会暂时排除来自中国市场的直接收入，因为在美国出口限制下，半导体出 口许可证获批的具体时间难以确定。 数据显示，在截至7月的财季中，英伟达的GPU供应量增长了40%，并预计随着B200的放量，截至10月的财季供应量将再增长20%；与此同时，更 新、性能更强的B300芯片将于10月当季开始出货，并有望占据Blackwell系列出货量的一半。 此外，服务器机架的生产效率也在提升。 KeyBanc分析师表示，如果将基于H20和RTX6000D（B40）等芯片的中国业务计算在内， 本可为英伟达带来20亿至30亿美元的增量收入。 目前，市场普遍预期英伟达三季度营收459.2亿美元，每股收益1.01美元。 产能提升支撑基本面 尽管面临中国市场的短期不确定性，英伟达的业务基本面依然强劲，为其长期增长提供了有力支撑。 KeyBanc在报告中强调， 英伟达的GPU供应和产能正在显著改善，这是其业绩持续向 ...

Core Insights - The chip black market is thriving, with $1 billion in transactions over three months, indicating a significant demand for B200 chips despite regulatory barriers [1] - The shadow supply chain is effectively circumventing U.S. restrictions, with Southeast Asia emerging as a key transit point for chip trade [1][3] - The chip repair market is booming, with high profit margins that encourage innovation and skill development among local technicians [5][7] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The chip black market is likened to a vibrant underground economy, where demand drives supply despite regulatory challenges [1][3] - Southeast Asian countries are becoming crucial players in the global chip supply chain, facilitating the movement of chips despite U.S. restrictions [1][7] - The repair market is characterized by high profitability, with repair jobs yielding significant income for technicians, comparable to a month's salary [5] Group 2: Technological and Economic Implications - The ongoing U.S. restrictions on technology are inadvertently fostering a competitive environment for local repair technicians, enhancing their skills and capabilities [3][5] - The chip black market reflects a broader trend of market adaptation, where demand for AI chips continues to drive illicit trade and repair activities [7][9] - The situation illustrates a complex interplay between regulation and market forces, where rules are often outpaced by market ingenuity [7][9]

Core Viewpoint - HSBC believes that AMD's newly launched MI350 series AI accelerators are now competitive with NVIDIA's Blackwell platform in terms of performance and pricing strategy [2][3] Group 1: AMD's Product Launch and Market Position - AMD's stock price increased by over 4% following HSBC's upgrade of its rating from "Hold" to "Buy" and doubling the target price to $200, which is nearly 40% above the current stock price [2] - The MI350 series allows AMD to "catch up" with NVIDIA, as it competes effectively with NVIDIA's current Blackwell AI platform [2] - The upcoming MI400 series is expected to provide greater growth potential in 2026 [2] Group 2: Financial Projections and Market Expectations - Analysts predict significant upside potential for AMD's AI revenue in fiscal year 2026, estimating AI GPU revenue to reach $15.1 billion, which is 57% higher than the market's average expectation of $9.6 billion [3] - The average selling price of the MI355 accelerator is projected to be $25,000, which is $10,000 higher than previous estimates, yet still about 30% lower than NVIDIA's products, contributing to the potential success of the MI350 series [3] - If growth expectations are met, AMD could achieve a higher valuation multiple, with a target price of $200 indicating nearly 40% upside from current levels [3]