吴欣 榜样投资 创始人及CEO 金焰 友山基金 联合 首席投资官 汪大海 彭博大中华区 总裁 Kumar Gautam 彭博行业研究 股票量化策略师 在机遇与挑战并存的背景下， 彭博将分别在上海、深圳、北京、杭州多地举办2025年私募投资策 略闭门交流会系列活动。 行业领袖将与彭博经济学家、彭博行业专家共同讲述对当前市场走势的 洞察与研判，探讨业界普遍面临的挑战与破局之道，并分享科技助力投资决策更加明智的实践经 在市场波动中进行明智的资产配置 因子模型在A股的交易策略及海外延申 2025年彭博私募投资策略 闭门交流会（上海场） 2025年5月22日（星期四） | 15:30 - 18:00 上海 （详细活动地址将在确认函中提供） 2025年第一季度已落下帷幕，我们见证了美国关税政策、地缘政治博弈等因素频频导致全球宏观 格局震荡，引发市场避险情绪。而中国市场凭借经济复苏、融资需求高涨而备受投资者关注，境 内外多元化资产配置机遇显现，吸引多家国际对冲基金在此落子布局。与此同时，人工智能 （AI）等前沿科技的蓬勃发展不仅使科技股表现亮眼、拉动股指上涨，还为量化投研高效赋能， 成为私募机构在不确定性中破局取胜的关键工 ...

本文来自彭博终端，终端用户可运行NSN SW4BU6DWRGG0 阅读原文。非终端用户可点击文末 "阅读原文" 预约演示。 伴随行业飞速发展、地缘政治博弈、供需天平摇摆…全球能源市场时刻处于动荡之中。彭博行 业研究（Bloomberg Intelligence）为您及时传递行业动态，并基于高质量数据、模型与分析 助您解读市场变化，看见全局、看向前景。 扫描二维码 立即订阅 彭博能源行业研究双周报 本期主题： OPEC+增产幅度超预期或扰动石油市场情绪 (彭博行业研究)——OPEC+于5月3日宣布增产4 1 . 1万桶/日，幅度超出预期，这标志着该组 织正转向低油价战略，以约束哈萨克斯坦和伊拉克等过度增产的成员国。此举可能有助于维 持OPEC+内部的长期团结，但由此引发的供应过剩可能促使石油交易员大幅削减敞口；从 CFTC原油期货投机性头寸的减少来看，这一趋势已经显现。我们预计WTI原油价格在今年 第四季度可能跌至每桶5 0美元的水平。 铜市看空押注的增加表明，交易员预计铜进口量将大幅下降。 数据来源：彭博行业研究 美元期货净头寸多转空 因利率走势存在不确定性 4月2 5日当周，美元指数期货净头寸继续处于净空头 ...

2025年5月27日（星期二）| 上午10:00 "对齐颗粒度"可谓当今企业在数据应用方面的一大挑战：当重要数据分散于不同系统和模块，将 其进行对齐、整理、分析的难度日益增加。企业亟需能将数据获取一体化、贯通前中后台的解决 方案。彭博企业数据服务（Enterprise Data）集参考数据、监管数据、定价数据、ESG数据、另类 据服务如何为贵企业的工作流程带来助力！ 主讲内容： 彭博静态数据集产品(Data License)为企业整体提供彭博数据集，包括参考数据，定价数据和监管数据，为 财务、投资组合管理与合规系统提供超过5,000万条证券和超过15,000个字段信息。 Data License助您以企业级访问获取终端海量数据集 DATA 功能演示：快速找到彭博数据，一键访问并应用 架。 彭博推出全新的Data Dynamics系列研讨会，通过专家讲解与产品演示，为您直观呈现彭博企业数 主讲嘉宾 钟毓秀 彭博中国企业级数据解决方案业务经理 扫码立即报名 * 报名需要时间审核，敬请耐心等待。审核通过将在微信收到报名成功提醒，活动开始前将会收到具体参会提醒，请注意查收！ * 彭博Bloomberg保留活动的最终解 ...

在全球经贸局势瞬息万变的当下，我们欣于⻅到全球光伏市场装机容量持续增⻓，彭博新能源财 经预计2025年光伏新增装机容量将⽐2024年增⻓17%，达到698GW。然⽽，制造商继续在激 烈竞争和低廉价格中挣扎，⼤多数制造商在2025年将继续严重亏损。聚焦中国，电⼒市场改⾰ 正在加速，提前四年将⼏乎所有光伏发电纳⼊⾃由化电⼒市场进⾏交易。尽管存在可预⻅的收⼊ ⻛险，但在"⼗四五"规划（2021-2025年）的最后⼀年，中国⻛电和光伏新增装机容量仍有 望创下纪录，从⽽进⼀步加剧与燃煤电⼚的竞争。随着政府推动能源密集型⾏业增加绿电消费， 对清洁电⼒的需求势将增⻓。放眼世界，由于居⺠电价下降，⼀些欧洲市场正在萎缩。中东和东 南亚可能会成为不断增⻓的市场，⽽印度今年的新增装机容量将达到 .GW（交流侧），成为 亚太焦点。 彭博新能源财经将于今年的光伏⾏业盛会期间，于6⽉10⽇下午在上海虹桥举办年度光伏研讨 会，与业界同仁探讨光伏⾏业供应链博弈、区域政策更新、光储融合展望的重要议题。期待各位 客⼾及⾏业伙伴莅临交流。 06⽉10⽇ :-:pm: 签到 :-:pm: 开幕致辞 陈再添 彭博新能源财经南⽅区业务总监 :-:pm: ...

Core Insights - The article discusses how companies in the insurance, AI, and cooling sectors can uncover alpha returns while addressing climate risks, highlighting the long-term demand for managing catastrophe risks, utilizing AI, and maintaining low-temperature environments [3]. Group 1: Insurance Sector Performance - Insurance brokerage companies have significantly outperformed the S&P 500 index over the past year, with a return rate of 100%, driven by a high average return rate of 32% and a low beta of 0.34 [4]. - Companies such as Aon, Brown & Brown, Arthur J. Gallagher, Marsh & McLennan, and Willis Towers Watson have shown superior long-term performance compared to insurance and reinsurance companies due to their low-risk, fee-based business models benefiting from rising premiums [4]. Group 2: Reinsurance Sector Insights - The recent rebound in the reinsurance sector is attributed to an improved expected return/loss ratio from taking on multiple risks, with a long-term average threshold of 3.57 times indicating strong performance for reinsurance companies [6]. - Notable reinsurance companies include Everest, Swiss Re, Arch Capital, Munich Re, Hannover Re, SiriusPoint, Fairfax Financial, and RenaissanceRe, which are expected to perform well under these conditions [6]. Group 3: AI and Energy Demand - Despite a decrease in media attention, AI-related electricity demand is projected to grow by approximately 3% annually until 2030, surpassing the recent growth rate of 0.5% [8]. - A group of 36 "AI enablers," including ABB, Schneider Electric, and Delta Electronics, has slightly outperformed the S&P 1200 Information Technology Index over the past year, with a 1% lead, and more significantly over three and five years, with outperformance of 11% and 17%, respectively [8]. Group 4: Environmental Impact of AI - The International Energy Agency forecasts that data center electricity demand will increase by about 15% annually starting in 2030, leading to a total consumption of 1,300 TWh by 2035 [10]. - This surge in demand is expected to result in an increase of 1 billion tons of CO2 emissions over the next decade, with annual emissions rising from 200 million tons to 320 million tons by 2030 before declining to 300 million tons [10].

成为私募机构在不确定性中破局取胜的关键工具。 在机遇与挑战并存的背景下， 彭博将分别在上海、深圳、北京、杭州多地举办2025年私募投资策 略闭门交流会系列活动。 行业领袖将与彭博经济学家、彭博行业专家共同讲述对当前市场走势的 洞察与研判，探讨业界普遍面临的挑战与破局之道，并分享科技助力投资决策更加明智的实践经 在市场波动中进行明智的资产配置 因子模型在A股的交易策略及海外延申 金焰 友山基金联合 首席投资官 汪大海 彭博大中华区 总裁 Kumar Gautam 彭博行业研究 股票量化策略师 赵旭 彭博 中国区 外汇市场专家 2025年第一季度已落下帷幕，我们见证了美国关税政策、地缘政治博弈等因素频频导致全球宏观 格局震荡，引发市场避险情绪。而中国市场凭借经济复苏、融资需求高涨而备受投资者关注，境 内外多元化资产配置机遇显现，吸引多家国际对冲基金在此落子布局。与此同时，人工智能 （AI）等前沿科技的蓬勃发展不仅使科技股表现亮眼、拉动股指上涨，还为量化投研高效赋能， 验。 上海场主题： 活动议程 开场致辞 海外宏观权益交易策略 彭博投研一体化解决方案 炉边对谈：衍生品投资策略 互动交流 2025年彭博私募投资策略 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent volatility in the U.S. Treasury futures market, attributing it to regulatory expectations, particularly regarding the Supplementary Leverage Ratio (SLR) and its impact on swap spreads and market liquidity [4][10][13]. Group 1: U.S. Treasury Market Dynamics - The U.S. Treasury futures market has experienced significant volatility since April, particularly in the 10-year contract, raising concerns about potential large-scale unwinding of basis trades [4][10]. - Analysis of positions and trading data indicates that there is insufficient evidence to suggest a massive unwinding of basis trades, as the open interest in 2Y, 5Y, and 10Y contracts has only decreased by 1%-5%, which is much less than the 15%-25% drop seen during the 2020 pandemic [7][10]. - The current volatility is primarily driven by market expectations regarding regulatory changes, specifically discussions around SLR exemptions, which could affect banks' ability to expand their balance sheets and increase liquidity in the Treasury market [10][13]. Group 2: Chinese Dollar Bond Market Insights - Following the announcement of new tariffs on Chinese products in early April, there has been a notable increase in risk aversion within the Asian dollar bond market, although credit spreads have not widened significantly [14][16]. - The valuation advantage of Chinese dollar bonds has become more pronounced, with the OAS of U.S. investment-grade corporate bonds widening by approximately 20 basis points, while Chinese dollar bonds only widened by about 14 basis points, indicating a potential undervaluation [14][16]. - Despite a downgrade in China's long-term foreign currency issuer rating by Fitch, Chinese dollar bond credit spreads have remained relatively stable, reflecting investor confidence in the credit quality and refinancing risks of Chinese enterprises [16][19]. Group 3: Asset-Backed Securities and Mortgage Market - The U.S. mortgage market has seen tightening credit conditions, particularly affecting ordinary loan applicants, although the overall mortgage availability index has slightly improved due to relaxed restrictions on Jumbo loans [20][21]. - The structural changes in the MBS market, driven by a reduction in government roles in housing finance, suggest a shift towards non-agency and high-net-worth client segments, indicating a need for investors to focus on high-quality MBS assets [23].

Core Insights - The article discusses the increasing trend of licensing transactions between Chinese biotechnology companies and global pharmaceutical firms amid tense US-China trade relations, with expected growth in transaction volume and upfront payments [2][6]. Group 1: Licensing Activity Trends - A survey indicates that licensing transactions between Chinese enterprises and global pharmaceutical/biotech companies are on the rise, with a median expected transaction volume growth of 5% and a median upfront payment growth of 2.5% in 2024 [6]. - In 2024, it is projected that 43 transactions will be completed, with an average upfront payment of $92.5 million and an average total value of $1.4 billion [6]. Group 2: Preferred Drug Development Platforms - Antibody-drug conjugates (ADCs) remain the most favored drug development technology platform among global pharmaceutical and biotech companies, with 36% of respondents selecting it as their top choice [12]. - Gene therapy ranks second in attractiveness at 16%, followed by bispecific antibodies and T-cell engagers at 15% [12]. - Cell therapies, including CAR-T and CAR-NK, have the lowest appeal at 1%, potentially influenced by the uneven distribution of Chinese enterprises across various treatment fields [12].

Core Viewpoint - Despite a challenging market environment and the impact of new U.S. tariff policies, most ETF investors are expected to continue dollar-cost averaging into popular ETFs, even as their outlook becomes increasingly bearish. Some investors are hedging by increasing their allocations to gold or cash ETFs [2][3]. Group 1: ETF Investment Trends - ETF investors tend to hold their positions long-term, continuing to invest in low-cost beta funds like VOO and IVV, which accounted for 20% of the $300 billion inflow into U.S. listed ETFs this year [3]. - The increase in inflows to cash and gold ETFs indicates that investors are seeking some buffer against market volatility, suggesting a contradictory behavior of buying equities while hedging [3][6]. - Historical patterns show that ETF investors have previously bought during downturns, indicating a potential need for sustained market declines of 6-9 months to deter significant buying activity [6]. Group 2: Fund Flows and Performance - In the first quarter, U.S. equity ETFs saw record inflows of $140 billion, with 80% of this capital flowing into funds heavily invested in U.S. equities [9]. - Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (VOO), iShares Core S&P 500 ETF (IVV), and Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF (VTI) led the inflow rankings, attracting $34 billion, $21.4 billion, and $8.6 billion respectively [9]. - Conversely, SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) experienced an outflow of $22.6 billion, indicating a shift in investor sentiment [9]. Group 3: Gold and Cash ETFs - The inflow into gold ETFs has increased significantly, with $12.2 billion added in the first quarter, driven by a 19% rise in gold prices and a growing interest in safe-haven assets [10]. - The performance of gold ETFs has improved, with a nearly 50% return since the beginning of 2024, reflecting a shift in investor focus towards protective assets [10].

自2 0 2 0年以来，俄罗斯天然气在中国供应结构中的占比大幅上升，现已成为中国进口管道天 然气的第二大来源国，仅次于土库曼斯坦。去年1 2月，俄罗斯Ga z p r om经"西伯利亚力量" (Powe r o f Si b e ri a )管道向中国输送的天然气达到满负荷状态，这表明今年天然气输送量或 将达到3 8 0亿立方米，同比增长2 3%。中国买家购买俄罗斯管道天然气的价格约为6美元/百 万英热单位，低于购买卡塔尔和澳大利亚LNG 1 0 - 1 2美元的价格。 本文来自彭博终端，终端用户可运行NSN SV54R8DWRGG2 阅读原文。非终端用户可点击文末 "阅读原文" 预约演示。 伴随行业飞速发展、地缘政治博弈、供需天平摇摆…全球能源市场时刻处于动荡之中。彭博行 业研究（Bloomberg Intelligence）为您及时传递行业动态，并基于高质量数据、模型与分析 助您解读市场变化，看见全局、看向前景。 扫描二维码 立即订阅 彭博能源行业研究双周报 本期主题： 俄罗斯天然气 vs. 亚洲LNG (彭博行业研究)——俄罗斯输华管道天然气量有望创下新高。中国的天然气消费量已呈现出 下降趋势，而日本重 ...