Core Viewpoint - Japan is initiating a project to explore and potentially commercialize rare earth mining in the waters near Minami-Torishima Island, aiming for domestic production to reduce reliance on imports, particularly from China, by around 2030 [2][10]. Group 1: Project Overview - The research vessel "Chikyu" set sail on January 12 to collect rare earth mud from a depth of approximately 6000 meters in Japan's exclusive economic zone (EEZ) [4][7]. - This initiative is part of Japan's "Strategic Innovation Promotion Program (SIP)" aimed at confirming the operational status of recovery equipment and conducting a trial extraction of rare earth mud [8][12]. - The project aims to verify the capability to collect 350 tons of sea mud daily by February 2027, along with assessing the costs of recovery and refining processes [8][10]. Group 2: Rare Earth Elements and Their Importance - High concentrations of rare earth elements such as dysprosium, neodymium, and gadolinium have been found in the seabed mud, which are essential for manufacturing electric vehicle (EV) motors and medical devices [5][7]. - Japan currently sources 63% of its rare earths from China, with heavy rare earths like dysprosium being irreplaceable by other materials [7][10]. Group 3: Economic Implications - Establishing a domestic supply chain for rare earths could significantly benefit Japan's automotive and electronics industries, especially in light of geopolitical tensions affecting imports from China [10][12]. - The potential loss to Japan's economy from a year-long export restriction from China could amount to approximately 2.6 trillion yen, impacting GDP by 0.4% [10]. Group 4: Challenges and Considerations - The cost of extracting rare earth mud near Minami-Torishima is projected to be several times higher than the market price of rare earths produced in China [15]. - The technology for extracting rare earths from seabed mud is still in the research phase, requiring further development for large-scale production [13][15]. - International regulations and environmental considerations may pose challenges to commercial extraction, as the International Seabed Authority has yet to finalize rules for seabed resource development [15].

Core Viewpoint - The market remains vigilant regarding currency intervention, making it difficult for the yen to depreciate unilaterally. Historical trends indicate that the yen's exchange rate often reverses direction at the beginning of the year, with a strong support expected starting in 2026 [2][6]. Group 1: Yen Exchange Rate Trends - On January 6, the yen appreciated to the range of 156.0-156.5 yen per dollar, marking a 1 yen increase from the previous day's low [4]. - The yen's exchange rate is expected to reverse direction at the beginning of each year from 2023 to 2025, with significant changes anticipated in January [9]. - The chief foreign exchange strategist at Mizuho Securities noted that the yen's trend is likely to shift towards appreciation, especially as concerns about fiscal deterioration under the current administration diminish [9]. Group 2: Factors Influencing Currency Intervention - The Japanese Finance Minister expressed the government's readiness to intervene in the currency market, which has curbed the trend of yen depreciation [6]. - Similar to the yen, the Korean won has also been subject to intervention, with the South Korean authorities actively working to prevent excessive depreciation [5][8]. - The sensitivity of the yen to U.S. interest rate fluctuations is significant, with a 1% change in U.S. long-term rates potentially causing a 12 yen fluctuation in the exchange rate [10]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Investor Behavior - Recent data from the U.S. labor market is expected to serve as a barometer for the yen's exchange rate against the dollar, as accurate economic data becomes available [11]. - Hedge funds and non-commercial entities have shown a slight net buying position in yen, indicating a shift in investor sentiment towards the yen as they prepare for potential trends in 2026 [11].

Core Viewpoint - Japanese automakers are experiencing a decline in sales in China, but the expansion of electric vehicle (EV) product lines is stabilizing the downward trend for some companies, particularly Toyota, which is showing signs of recovery in new car sales [4][5]. Group 1: Sales Performance - Toyota's new car sales in China for 2025 are projected to be 1,780,400 units, representing a year-on-year increase of 0.2%. The luxury brand Lexus is expected to sell 182,000 units, up 0.7% year-on-year [4]. - Nissan's sales are forecasted at 653,024 units, down 6% year-on-year, marking the seventh consecutive year of decline, although the decrease is less severe than the 12% drop in 2024 [4]. - Honda's sales are expected to be 645,345 units, reflecting a 24% year-on-year decline, continuing a five-year downward trend [4]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The demand for new energy vehicles (NEVs) in China is robust, with local giants like BYD continuing to see sales growth. Japanese automakers, which have primarily focused on fuel vehicles, are lagging in the NEV sector [4]. - The market share of Chinese brands in the passenger car segment has increased from 38% in 2020 to 70% in the first 11 months of 2025, while Japanese brands' share has decreased from 23% to 10% [4]. Group 3: Product Line Expansion - Starting in 2025, three Japanese automakers are significantly expanding their NEV product lines, with signs of sales recovery emerging. Toyota plans to launch the pure electric SUV "bZ3X" through its local joint venture GAC Toyota in March 2025 [5]. - Toyota's EV sales are expected to surge by 86% year-on-year, reaching 109,300 units in 2025, with the sedan "bZ7" set to launch in spring 2026 [5].

佳能在2025年的半导体展会SEMICON JAPAN上的展示（2025年12月17日，东京） 该设备用于在半导体晶圆上绘制微细电路的工序。这是佳能约14年来首次更新升级光刻机。新机型的半 导体晶圆处理能力为每小时400片以上，较2012年发售的老款机型（含选配件）提升了三成。此举意在 抓住运算用逻辑半导体及存储器厂商的旺盛需求。 佳能在KrF光刻机领域占据30%的全球份额（按台数计算）。与荷兰阿斯麦控股（ASML Holdings）等 企业是竞争关系。佳能还将于2026年初推出所支持的电路比KrF光刻机更加微细的ArF干式光刻机。 版权声明：日本经济新闻社版权所有，未经授权不得转载或部分复制，违者必究。 日经中文网 https://cn.nikkei.com 这是佳能约14年来首次更新升级光刻机。新机型的半导体晶圆处理能力较2012年发售的老款机型提升了 三成。佳能在氟化氪（KrF）光刻机领域占据30%的全球份额…… 佳能最早将于2026年初发售用于制造成熟制程半导体的氟化氪（KrF）光刻机的新机型。 ...

"投资者对AI过度兴奋"，就连作为当事人的OpenAI的CEO萨姆·奥尔特曼也承认这一点。 然而，不管什么样的大人物做出提醒，买盘的势头依旧没有停止。 在1月7日的交易中，道琼斯工业平均指数虽然上涨乏力，但首次突破5万点大关仍在射程内。标普500指 数接近7000点。华尔街也鼓励个人投资者进行积极乐观地投资。 "AI热潮处于泡沫的初期阶段，显然已经对所有领域都产生了巨大影响"，美国著名投资家达利欧回顾 2025年时这样指出。然而，不管什么样的大人物对AI泡沫危险性敲响警钟，买盘的势头依旧没有停 止。市场似乎对过去几次泡沫很健忘…… 市场似乎很健忘。 "人工智能（AI）热潮处于泡沫的初期阶段，显然已经对所有领域都产生了巨大影响"。 1月5日，美国著名投资家瑞·达利欧（Ray Dalio）在X上发布的回顾2025年的长文中这样指出。 各界大人物敲响警钟 不仅仅是他。华尔街的意见领袖、摩根大通的首席执行官(CEO)杰米·戴蒙（Jamie Dimon）也持同样意 见。另外，经济合作与发展组织（OECD）、欧洲中央银行（ECB）和英国英格兰银行（央行）也对AI 泡沫的危险性敲响了警钟。 既然如此多专家都这么说，我们或许 ...

Core Viewpoint - Honda is diversifying its semiconductor supply chain to reduce reliance on Chinese suppliers, particularly after Nexperia, a semiconductor manufacturer, halted shipments, impacting production in North America and China [2][4]. Group 1: Supply Chain Strategy - Honda has confirmed plans to procure semiconductors from multiple manufacturers, including Rohm, both domestically in Japan and internationally, starting from mid-January [2][4]. - The company aims to lower its dependence on Chinese suppliers by restructuring its supply chain, with Rohm providing a complete service from design to manufacturing [4]. - The semiconductor shortage has led to production cuts, with Honda projecting a reduction of 150 billion yen in operating profit for the fiscal year ending March 2026 due to these supply chain issues [4]. Group 2: Industry Context - Other Japanese automakers, such as Nissan, are also taking measures to reduce reliance on China, including sourcing alternative components [5]. - The automotive industry faces significant supply chain risks due to the wide range of components involved, as evidenced by Suzuki's production halts caused by rare earth material restrictions [5].

Group 1 - The article discusses the concept of "slaughter line" and its implications for high-net-worth families, suggesting that while they may not face absolute "slaughter," they are more likely to experience downgrades or declines [6] - It emphasizes the importance of free cash flow for both companies and individuals, indicating that it is essential for sustainable development and necessary expenditures [6] - The term "slaughter line" is essentially equated to the free cash flow of a business or the disposable income of an individual, highlighting its critical role in maintaining ongoing operations and living standards [6]

在联想集团举行的美国CES活动上，英伟达CEO黄仁勋、超微半导体CEO苏姿丰等美国半导体巨头的掌 门人陆续登场。人形机器人的展示会场也云集了众多中国初创企业。受美国制裁的影响，中国企业近年 一度沉寂，但此次重新恢复了存在感…… 全球最大的技术展览会"CES"于美国时间1月9日闭幕。今年，在索尼集团等日本企业放弃参展的情况 下，近年来一度沉寂的中国企业重新恢复存在感。为了规避美国政府推动的中美"脱钩"，中国企业在美 国坚韧经营的的身影得以窥见。 CES上，联想在球形圆顶体育馆"球体(Sphere)"举行了大规模活动（6日、美国拉斯维加斯） CES上的联想的活动现场（1月6日、美国拉斯维加斯） 在位于美国拉斯维加斯的世界最大级别的球形圆顶场馆"Sphere"。1月6日晚，在一家企业举行的活动 上，随着占据整个视野的富有震撼力的影像，美国英伟达的首席执行官（CEO）黄仁勋登台亮相。 美国超微半导体（AMD）的CEO苏姿丰、英特尔的CEO陈立武、高通的CEO克里斯蒂亚诺·阿蒙 ……在 黄仁勋之后，美国半导体巨头的掌门人们也陆续登台。这些企业的合计总市值达到约5.2万亿美元。 彰显合作关系 举办这场活动的是中国个人电脑 ...

据鲍威尔称，司法部于9日向其送达了大陪审团的传票，暗示可能对其提起刑事诉讼。传票内容称，鲍威尔可能在围绕美联储总部改造工程的问题上，于 2025年6月在联邦国会参议院银行委员会作证时作出虚假陈述。 鲍威尔在声明中强调，自己一直"尽一切努力向国会提供信息"，反驳称"这些不过是借口"。 日本经济新闻（中文版：日经中文网）高见浩辅 华盛顿 版权声明：日本经济新闻社版权所有，未经授权不得转载或部分复制，违者必究。 美国联邦储备委员会（美联储，FRB）主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔1月11日公开表示，自己已成为刑事调查对象，并通过发布视频声明反驳相关指控，暗示这是特 朗普总统施加政治压力的结果。政府方面的施压发展为对中央银行负责人展开刑事调查，这在美国实属罕见。 美国总统特朗普与美联储主席鲍威尔（2025年7月，reuters） 政府方面的施压发展为对中央银行负责人展开刑事调查，这在美国实属罕见…… 日经中文网 https://cn.nikkei.com ...

Core Viewpoint - Japanese companies are actively seeking to secure rare earth supply chains outside of China, learning from past experiences and focusing on developing alternative technologies and recycling methods to reduce reliance on Chinese manufacturing [2][6]. Group 1: Investment and Partnerships - JX Metals announced a 5% investment in an Australian rare metals and rare earth mine, with plans for additional funding [4]. - Marubeni also expressed intentions to invest in the same mine, indicating a collaborative effort among Japanese firms to increase their stake [4]. - JX Metals is exploring new rare earth rights beyond Australia, emphasizing the urgency of securing stable supplies for chip materials [4]. Group 2: Historical Context and Challenges - Historically, the U.S. and other countries were the main sources of rare earths until China's emergence as a dominant low-cost producer due to lax environmental regulations [5]. - Japan faces significant challenges in competing with China's overwhelming cost advantages, even with secured rights to rare earths [5]. - The Chinese government implemented export controls on seven types of rare earths in April 2025, forcing Japanese automakers to halt production [5]. Group 3: Technological Innovations and Recycling Efforts - Japanese companies are developing technologies to reduce the need for rare earths, such as Proterial's electric vehicle motors that do not use heavy rare earths [5]. - Companies like Shin-Etsu Chemical are establishing recycling facilities in Japan and Vietnam to reclaim rare earth materials from used products and manufacturing waste [5]. - Collaboration between Shin-Etsu Chemical and Toyota aims to achieve resource recycling for hybrid vehicle motors [5].