Workflow
中国基金报
icon
Search documents
券商资管2026年展望:权益掘金牛市后半程,多元配置凸显价值
中国基金报· 2026-01-04 14:09
Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that in 2026, brokerage asset management will focus on equities, bonds, and FOF (Fund of Funds) strategies, indicating a clear investment direction for the year. The equity market is seen as being in the "second half of a bull market," with abundant structural opportunities, while the bond market is expected to maintain a wide range of fluctuations. Multi-asset and multi-strategy allocations remain the mainstream choice in a volatile environment [2]. Equity Market: Anchoring the Bull Market's Second Half - Multiple brokerage asset management firms hold a positive outlook for the A-share market in 2026, believing it remains in the "second half of a bull market." Key drivers include ample liquidity, a recovering profit cycle, ongoing policy support, and a shift in residents' asset allocation [4]. - Guojin Asset Management notes that the current liquidity and regulatory environment is improving, with long-term capital inflows expected. Structural opportunities are anticipated in certain industries due to technological breakthroughs and economic highlights [4]. - Caitong Asset Management suggests that a "spring rally" may occur at the end of the year, primarily driven by TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications) and small-cap stocks. They highlight sectors like power equipment, non-bank financials, and media as having favorable price-to-book (PB) and return on equity (ROE) metrics [4]. - Guotai Haitong Asset Management believes the current A-share market began its rally on September 24, 2024, with a steady "slow bull" trend expected in 2026, supported by a favorable environment of RMB appreciation and low domestic interest rates [4]. - Guotai Haitong recommends focusing on "5+X" industries in the first half of 2026, including solar energy, brokerage firms, semiconductors, consumer electronics, and basic chemicals, with an additional focus on Hang Seng Technology [5]. - Huatai Securities Asset Management identifies four main investment lines: technology growth, upstream sectors benefiting from "anti-involution" policies, advanced manufacturing, and deeply undervalued consumer and non-bank financial sectors [5]. Bond Market: Wide Fluctuations as the Main Theme - Several brokerage asset management firms predict that bond yields will maintain a wide fluctuation trend in 2026, with limited space for both upward and downward movements. Focus should be on wave trading and structural opportunities, with credit bonds and convertible bonds each having their own value [6]. - Guojin Asset Management states that active fiscal policies may continue to exert pressure on bond yields, while basic economic pressures remain. The central bank's liquidity is expected to remain loose to support fiscal policy implementation [7]. - Caitong Asset Management emphasizes that weak economic recovery will support the bond market, with an overall expectation of fluctuating bond yields in 2026. They highlight the value of credit bonds amid a prolonged "asset shortage" [8]. FOF Market: Multi-Asset Strategies Present Allocation Opportunities - The market is expected to mature in 2025, with a significant reduction in the phenomenon of betting on single assets or strategies, highlighting the advantages of multi-asset allocation. In 2026, brokerage asset management firms are optimistic about multi-asset FOF strategies, anticipating that quantitative strategies and active funds will contribute to excess returns [9]. - Guojin Asset Management notes that the complementary nature of the credit cycles in China and the U.S. supports total demand, leading to a cautious optimism regarding multi-asset FOF returns in 2026 [10]. - Caitong Asset Management emphasizes that multi-asset allocation will have significant advantages in 2026, with expectations for a "slow bull" in equities and opportunities in commodities and global assets [10]. - Guotai Haitong Asset Management maintains a positive outlook on quantitative stock selection strategies, expecting a favorable environment for stock quantitative strategies due to ample liquidity in the equity market [11].
周末,突发“灰犀牛”!刚刚,上海宣布大利好
中国基金报· 2026-01-04 14:09
Key Points - The article summarizes significant events during the New Year holiday and the latest assessments from major brokerage firms regarding market trends and investment opportunities [1] Group 1: Major Events - The U.S. military operation led to the capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and his wife, with implications for U.S. involvement in Venezuela's oil industry [3] - Hong Kong's stock market opened strongly on January 2, with the Hang Seng Index rising by 2.76% and the Hang Seng Tech Index increasing by 4% [4] - The public fund fee reduction reform has been fully implemented, expected to save investors approximately 51 billion yuan annually, with a 20% decrease in comprehensive fund fee rates [5] - Warren Buffett officially retired as CEO of Berkshire Hathaway, continuing as chairman [7] - The National Integrated Circuit Fund increased its stake in SMIC from 4.79% to 9.25% [8] - Baidu plans to spin off its Kunlun chip business and apply for an IPO in Hong Kong [9] - Tesla lost its title as the world's top electric vehicle seller, delivering 1.636 million vehicles in 2025, while BYD sold 2.257 million vehicles, a 27.86% increase from 2024 [10] - Shanghai aims to become a global hub for eVTOL (electric vertical takeoff and landing) aircraft, targeting an industry scale of 80 billion yuan by 2028 [11] - Moutai launched its products on the iMoutai platform, with significant sales during the holiday period [12] - New guidelines for high-quality development of the power grid were released, aiming for a new grid platform by 2030 [13] Group 2: Brokerage Insights - CITIC Securities noted that 2025 was a strong year for market performance, driven by a reassessment of China's technological capabilities and external demand resilience, with a focus on balancing external and internal demand in 2026 [14] - Shenwan Hongyuan highlighted a favorable window for risk appetite, with potential catalysts from upcoming events such as the Spring Festival and the Two Sessions [15] - Guojin Securities pointed out that the market's internal driving logic is changing, with a focus on fundamental signals and lower volatility assets [16] - Hua'an Securities emphasized the importance of macro policies and the AI industry as key investment themes for January [17] - CITIC Jiantou expressed optimism for the cross-year market, focusing on sectors like semiconductors, AI, and new energy [18] - Cinda Securities suggested a gradual start to the spring market, with a need for economic data to support further index breakthroughs [19] - Everbright Securities advised patience regarding the spring market, noting historical patterns of index performance [21] - Guotai Haitong forecasted a stable market environment supported by favorable liquidity and policy measures [22] - Zhongtai Securities recommended cautious optimism for the technology sector, focusing on specific sub-sectors with strong fundamentals [23] - Galaxy Securities indicated that the holiday period's positive market sentiment could lead to an early spring rally, while remaining cautious of geopolitical risks [24]
特朗普喊话佩特罗:“当心了”!最新:哥伦比亚进入一级战备
中国基金报· 2026-01-04 14:09
来源:新华社 参考消息 据法新社1月3日报道, 在美军抓捕委内瑞拉总统马杜罗之后,特朗普3日表示,近月与他多次 发生言语交锋的哥伦比亚总统古斯塔沃·佩特罗"可要当心了"。 特朗普在一次记者会上说:"他在制造可卡因,他们向美国运毒,所以他可要当心了。" 罗德里格斯当晚在与委内瑞拉接壤的边境城市库库塔举行的新闻发布会上说,鉴于当前委局 势升级,哥方除推动召开上述会议外,还提议召开拉美和加勒比国家共同体(拉共体)外长 会议。目前,哥伦比亚担任拉共体轮值主席国。 罗德里格斯说,哥伦比亚已在与委接壤的边境地区启动医疗系统黄色警戒。 哥政府下令加强 人道主义措施,并在哥委边境部署3万名士兵,宣布武装部队进入一级战备状态,以应对可能 升级的局势。 当地时间1月3日,哥伦比亚国防部长佩德罗·桑切斯表示, 针对美国总统对哥伦比亚总统佩 特罗发出的威胁,已加强对佩特罗的安全保护。 特朗普当天曾指责佩特罗生产毒品,并威胁 他"小心点"。 美国3日凌晨对委内瑞拉发起大规模军事行动,突袭委首都加拉加斯并抓走委总统马杜罗及其 夫人。美国总统特朗普称,美国将"管理"委内瑞拉直至实现所谓"安全"过渡。包括哥伦比亚 在内的多个国家和国际组织对 ...
湖北:坚决拥护党中央决定
中国基金报· 2026-01-04 14:09
来源:长江云新闻 中央纪委国家监委 政事儿 1月4日消息, 湖北省政协原党组成员、副主席周先旺严重违纪违法被"双开"。 据长江云新闻消息,1 月 4 日,湖北省委常委会召开会议,通报中央纪委国家监委关于给予 周先旺开除党籍、开除公职处分的决定。 与会同志一致表示,坚决拥护党中央决定,坚决拥 护中央纪委国家监委决定。 省委书记王忠林主持会议并讲话。 会议指出,党中央决定给予周先旺开除党籍、开除公职处分,充分彰显了我们党坚持无禁 区、全覆盖、零容忍惩治腐败的坚定立场,充分释放了全面从严治党永远在路上、党的自我 革命永远在路上的强烈信号。 省委坚决拥护。 全省各级党组织和广大党员干部要切实把思想 和行动统一到党中央决定上来,不断提高政治判断力、政治领悟力、政治执行力,始终同以 习近平同志为核心的党中央保持高度一致,坚定捍卫 " 两个确立 " 、坚决做到 " 两个维护 " 。 会议强调, 要深刻汲取周先旺违纪违法案件教训,以案为鉴、警钟长鸣。 要坚持不懈用习近 平新时代中国特色社会主义思想凝心铸魂,始终做到对党忠诚、信念坚定。要锲而不舍落实 中央八项规定及其实施细则精神,始终做到严于律己、作风过硬。要坚持一切为了事业 ...
结构性转变,有望推动中国股票继续上行
中国基金报· 2026-01-04 14:09
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that structural changes in the Chinese market are expected to drive continued upward momentum in Chinese stocks, particularly in the technology sector, with significant inflows into ETFs tracking these stocks [2][9]. - In 2025, the MCHI index, which tracks the MSCI China Index, achieved a return rate exceeding 30%, while the S&P 500 index returned approximately 16.39% during the same period [2]. - The total scale of 53 Chinese ETFs listed in the US is approximately $31.47 billion (about 220 billion RMB), with the largest being KWEB at $8.02 billion and MCHI at $7.78 billion [4]. Group 2 - The CQQQ ETF saw over $2 billion in inflows in 2025, making it a significant winner among Chinese ETFs, while KWEB and MCHI also received substantial inflows of $1.973 billion and $871 million, respectively [4]. - The interest in non-US ETFs, including Chinese ETFs, is expected to continue growing in 2026, driven by attractive valuations compared to US stocks [7]. - UBS forecasts that advanced manufacturing and technology will be new growth engines for the Chinese economy, with R&D spending expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate of at least 7% by 2030 [9].
美国抓走马杜罗计划曾外泄,美媒收到计划后未公布
中国基金报· 2026-01-04 12:44
来源:新华社 美国旗语新闻社1月3日报道称,美国突袭委内瑞拉并抓走总统马杜罗夫妇的行动计划曾外泄,但 获悉行动计划的美国媒体没有立即报道。 报道援引两名消息人士的话说:"在美国2日夜间秘密突袭委内瑞拉前不久,《纽约时报》 和《华盛顿邮报》获悉了这一计划,但决定暂缓发布相关报道,以避免危及美军人员安 全。" 报道没有披露美国突袭委内瑞拉计划是如何外泄的。 "王炸"!1499元, 有经销商"跟进"促销飞天茅台!每人最多可购5件 ...
证监会发布!工行、中行、交行、富国基金,最新发声
中国基金报· 2026-01-04 12:44
中国基金报记者 方丽 李树超 陆慧婧 今年1月1日,《公开募集证券投资基金销售费用管理规定》(以下简称《规定》)正式实施,标志着公募基金行业历经两年多的费率改革 终于全面落地。 【导读】《公开募集证券投资基金销售费用管理规定》正式实施,构建公募行业 高质量发展新生态 加强培训传导。 组织全行基金销售人员、客服人员及运营支持人员进行专题培训,确保一线人员能够准确、清晰地向投资者传达政策变 化。 费率改革对工商银行基金销售业务模式提出了更高要求,也指明了转型方向。工商银行将以提升客户盈利体验为导向,加强专业力量,持 续优化建设科学严谨的基金评价筛选体系,在全市场范围内为投资者甄选真正优质的基金管理人和产品,强化资产配置能力,根据客户风 险承受能力与生命周期需求,提供多元化、个性化的基金投资组合建议。 该《规定》引发市场关注,工行、中行、交行、富国基金等头部机构积极发声。这些机构表示, 公募基金费率改革有助于稳步降低投资者 投资成本,提升投资者获得感,进一步推动行业转型和高质量发展。 工商银行:积极落实公募基金销售费率改革 切实提升投资者获得感 公募基金销售费率改革,是践行金融工作人民性的关键举措,核心在于提升投资 ...
突然人去楼空!多地门店被曝跑路,知名连锁店道歉
中国基金报· 2026-01-04 11:57
来源:南方都市报、新闻晨报 近日,由知名艺人古天乐代言的面部清洁护理连锁品牌"洗脸熊·洗脸吧"(以下简称洗脸熊)被曝多地门店跑路。 近日,来自广东、浙江、上海等多地的消费者投诉洗脸熊门店跑路。有消费者反映,门店跑路后退款难,且会员卡在其他门店无法使用,也有 消费者反映,门店前一天还在发朋友圈宣传,次日便人去楼空,且去其他门店查询后被告知并非会员,即充值的款项没有进入公司系统,消费 者就此质疑门店是否早就想跑路。 针对此事,洗脸熊创始人 唐华波向记者表示,对于监管不到位深感自责,将切实维护好消费者的权益 。 1月2日,其提供的声明显示,企业 高度重视部分消费者反馈的门店闭店导致预付卡退费难等问题,并郑重向所有受到影响和困扰的消费者致以最诚恳的歉意,诚恳接受社会各界 的监督与批评。 洗脸熊在声明中表示,企业第一时间组织专项团队跟进处理此事,经核查,此次涉及闭店且未能妥善处理退款事宜的门店,系个别门店在未与 总部充分沟通并违反合作协议的情况下擅自停业所致。目前,洗脸熊全国2600余家门店均正常运营,服务未受影响,请广大消费者放心。 洗脸熊表示,针对涉事门店,洗脸熊总部已依据双方签订的合作协议及国家相关法律法规, 启 ...
“王炸”!1499元,有经销商“跟进”促销飞天茅台!每人最多可购5件
中国基金报· 2026-01-04 11:57
Core Viewpoint - A new promotional activity has been launched by Chengdu Chuantang Supply Chain Management Co., Ltd., allowing customers to purchase the 2026 Flying Moutai at a price of 1499 yuan per bottle, starting from January 10, 2024, with limited availability [2][4]. Group 1: Pricing and Sales Strategy - The 2026 Flying Moutai is priced at 1499 yuan per 500ml bottle, with other products like premium Moutai at 2299 yuan and kilogram Moutai at 3998 yuan [4]. - The launch of the iMoutai platform on January 1, 2024, saw the 2026 Flying Moutai sell out quickly, with over 100,000 users successfully purchasing within the first three days [6]. - The daily purchase limit for users on the iMoutai platform was reduced from 12 bottles to 6 to promote supply-demand balance [6]. Group 2: Market Dynamics and Dealer Impact - Industry experts suggest that the current pricing strategy may be a short-term tactic, as the actual market supply-demand imbalance remains unresolved, leading to concerns about the sustainability of such pricing [5]. - The introduction of direct sales through iMoutai is seen as a move to regain pricing power and channel control from traditional distributors, although it raises concerns about the impact on their interests [6][7]. - Despite the high demand on the iMoutai platform, wholesale prices for Flying Moutai have reportedly fallen below 1499 yuan again, indicating potential market volatility [8].
“一名与马杜罗关系密切的线人,日常监视马杜罗一举一动,将马杜罗夫妇的确切位置告知美方”
中国基金报· 2026-01-04 11:57
此外,多名听取过美方行动简报的人士透露,在马杜罗被美国特种作战部队抓捕的前几天乃 至行动当下, 委内瑞拉政府内部的一名CIA消息源持续向美方通报马杜罗的行踪。 来源:央视网 上述人士称, 正是CIA提供了促成马杜罗被抓捕的关键情报 。该机构不仅依托来自委内瑞拉 内部的线人,还动用了由多架隐形无人机组成的监控体系,对委内瑞拉境内实施几乎不间断 的空中监视,以掌握马杜罗的具体位置与行动轨迹。 央视网消息,当地时间1月3日凌晨2时许,美国对委内瑞拉发动军事打击。据报道, 美军三 角洲特种部队从一处堡垒的卧室中,将睡梦中的委内瑞拉总统马杜罗及夫人抓走 ,并送去美 国受审。 突发!马杜罗被 抓,爆出内幕交易? 当地时间1月3日, 央视记者 获悉,一位熟悉美国中情局(CIA)工作的知情人士透露, 从 2025年8月起,中情局就在委内瑞拉部署了一支秘密行动人员团队 。 该团队收集有关委内瑞 拉总统马杜罗"生活规律"和行踪的信息。 与之配合的还有一名与马杜罗关系密切的线人,其 不仅日常监视马杜罗的一举一动,而且在美军行动过程中通风报信,将马杜罗夫妇的确切位 置告知美方。 根据Vantor公布的最新卫星图像显示,特蒂乌纳军事基 ...