业绩简评 2025 年 4 月 2 日公司发布 24 年年报，24 年实现营业收入 11.22 亿元，同比增长 19.62%，实现归母净利润 1.16 亿元，同比增长 45.46%，实现扣非归母净利润 1.1 亿元，同比增长 39.98%。 经营分析 公司核心耐磨备件业务稳健增长，新签大单后续有望继续保持较 好增速。公司24年耐磨备件实现收入7.57亿元，同比增长18.82%， 其中橡胶耐磨备件 6.11 亿元，同比增长 12.7%；金属耐磨备件 1.46 亿元，同比增长 53.7%。25 年 2 月 21 日公司公告分别与哈萨克斯 坦共和国某矿业公司旗下两处矿山项目签订了 5 年期《备件供货 合同》，合同金额折合人民币 1.62 亿元（不含税），为该客户提供 磨机进料端衬板、筛板、护板等选矿备件。公司目前在国内、海 外市场实现了较多大客户开拓，考虑当前铜、金价格均处高位， 矿山机械行业有望保持较高景气度，公司耐磨备件业务后续有望 继续保持较好增长。 深入推进国际化发展战略，24 年海外收入高增长。24 年公司实现 海外收入 7.58 亿元，同比增长 46.1%。新增客户 38 家，海外市场 订单不断取得突破 ...

Investment Rating - The report provides a positive investment rating for the telecommunications sector, highlighting growth potential driven by increased capital expenditure from operators [1]. Core Insights - The telecommunications sector is experiencing growth due to rising data traffic, which drives operators to procure communication terminal equipment, subsequently boosting upstream component purchases [23]. - The domestic large model industry chain is maturing, with expectations to replicate the capital expenditure-driven market seen in overseas cloud service providers (CSPs) [2][3]. - Operators are increasing capital expenditures, which is expected to lead to a decline in dividend yields, as seen with China Mobile [8]. Summary by Sections Operator Research Framework - The report outlines a research framework focusing on operators and their upstream communication equipment, emphasizing the impact of capital expenditure on market performance [2]. Investment Logic Driven by Internet Companies - The investment logic for individual stocks is driven by overseas internet companies, with a similar trend anticipated in the domestic market as the large model industry matures [3]. Communication Sector Investment Logic - The report discusses the investment logic in the communication sector driven by operators, highlighting the correlation between capital expenditure and stock performance [4]. Capital Expenditure Trends - Capital expenditure from the three major operators is projected to increase significantly, with a notable rise in the telecommunications index [24]. Stock Performance Correlation - The report indicates a correlation between stock prices and capital expenditure, with historical data showing that stock prices often lead performance improvements post-capital expenditure announcements [33][36].

投资逻辑 连锁咖啡 VS 茶饮：需求本源、市场成熟度、行业竞争格局等均有所不同。1）需求本源不同：咖啡主要是咖啡因的摄 入，办公室为第一大消费场景；茶饮更多是饮料获取与糖分摄入，更多满足休闲需求，消费的偶发性更强。2）市场需 求成熟度不同：茶饮消费市场更为成熟，十几元中价格带市场最大（2023 年中价格带占茶饮赛道市场的 46.2%），但 竞争更激烈；咖啡市场目前仍处于教育阶段，主流价格带仍聚焦在十几元价格及以上，低价格带门店体量小。3）行业 竞争格局差异：咖啡市场集中度相对茶饮更高，瑞幸及星巴克 Top2 优势突出（2023 年瑞幸市占率为 21.8%，星巴克 为 16.5%）；而茶饮市场蜜雪冰城位列市占率 Top1 达 20.2%(2023 年)，茶饮中端价格带包含古茗、霸王茶姬、茶百道 等品牌，竞争激烈。4）消费结构及频次不同：我们认为，咖啡和茶饮二者消费频次随年龄趋势而形成典型"V 字型"， 茶饮也推出更为健康的产品延长生命周期。5）门店爬坡模型差异：我们认为茶饮门店能够快速上量并形成赚钱效应； 而咖啡尽管单店层面需求难以像成熟的茶饮市场一样迅速达到峰值，但成熟后能够形成稳定的需求和复购。6）咖啡 茶 ...

消费中观策略 敬请参阅最后一页特别声明 1 内需：2 月制造业 PMI 指数 2 月录得 50.2%，制造业景气水平明显回升，服务业 PMI 录得 50%略有回落，消费 板块尚未完全触底复苏。24 年 9 月以来国补力度不断加大，刺激居民消费意愿的效果不断显现。且补贴按照省 份进行，后续存在政策加码的可能。社保注资、财政加码下居民可支配收入与消费意愿有望得到一定修复。建议 寻找母婴教育类等消耗性消费、Q1 业绩预期平稳的高股息防御性消费公司。 出口：美国 PCE 维持高位，降息预期继续推迟。美国 2 月核心 PCE 物价同比+2.8%，继续保持高位水平。尽管 国内通胀风险仍在，但美国仍存在向中国继续征收额外关税的可能，短期内对出口扰动的影响较大。建议寻找具 备新市场新消费拓展能力、有望构筑第二增长曲线能力的公司。 家用电器：①白电 4 月排产：4 月三大白电合计排产总量达 3959 万台，同比+4.3%。4 月空调内销/出口排产 1342/1058 万台，同比分别+9.1%/+7.5%；4 月冰箱内销/出口排产 323/486 万台，同比分别-12.6%/+5.3%；4 月洗衣机内销/出口排产 380/360 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a price increase of over 15% in the next 6-12 months [3][11]. Core Insights - The company announced a strong performance for 2024, with revenue projected at 8.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 167.5%, and a net profit of 1.473 billion yuan, reflecting a 254% increase [1][9]. - The company's brand influence is expanding, with same-store sales growth of 120.9% and leading average sales performance in shopping malls among all jewelry brands in China [9]. - The company is optimizing its product offerings and expanding its store network, with a total of 36 direct stores by the end of 2024 [9]. - The company has a strong focus on high-end positioning and brand strength, with plans for new store openings in Singapore and Japan [9]. Financial Performance - Revenue for 2023 was 3.18 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 145.67%. The projected revenue for 2024 is 8.506 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 167.51% [8]. - The net profit for 2023 was 416 million yuan, with a growth rate of 340.40%. The projected net profit for 2024 is 1.473 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 253.86% [8]. - The company plans to distribute a dividend of 6.35 yuan per share, with a payout ratio of approximately 73% [1]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The profit forecast for 2025-2027 is 3.152 billion yuan, 4.638 billion yuan, and 6.181 billion yuan, representing growth rates of 114%, 47%, and 33% respectively [3]. - The corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for 2025-2027 are projected at 43, 29, and 22 times [3].

证券研究报告 轻工行业研究框架 分析师：赵中平 执业编号：S1130524050003 分析师：张杨桓 执业编号：S1130522090001 分析师：尹新悦 执业编号：S1130522080004 2025/4/1 1 目录 01 家居：供给侧研究框架越发重要 02 造纸：成本为王，上游延伸强化壁垒 03 包装：行业集中度有望持续提升 04 宠物：高景气强成长，品牌初崭头角 2 01家居：供给侧研究框架越发重要 3 需求端—前置指标为地产销售、竣工、卖场客流 家居 行业 规划 设计 项目 报建 土地 获取 项目 开工 施工 建设 房产 预售 竣工 交付 6-9个月 6-9个月 2.5-4年 6-9个月 -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 房屋竣工面积:住宅:累计同比 零售额：家具类：累计同比 图表：房产行业中下游产业链 图表：竣工后6-9个月将形成家具销售 资料来源：Wind，国金证券研究所 4 ➢ 房地产从销售到竣工的大概需1.5-3年：商品房从获取土地到开工约为6-9个月，从开工到预售的时长也在 6-9个月，而房产从获取土地到完全竣工交付的年限在2.5-4年，预计从房产预售到竣工交 ...

行业动态 4 月 1 日，《广东省推动人工智能与机器人产业创新发展若干政策措施》新闻发布会消息，广东出台 12 条措施，推动 人工智能与机器人产业创新发展。其中，支持创建国家级、省级人工智能与机器人领域制造业创新中心，省财政按规 定分别给予最高 5000 万元、1000 万元的资金支持。 公司动态 核心指标 4 月 1 日机器人板块整体回调，越疆领涨： 板块涨幅前三：本体（+2.97%）>PCB（+0.74%）>散热件（-0.74%）。 个股涨幅前三：越疆（+20.64%）>华培动力（+4.22%）>亿嘉和（+3.57%）。 投资建议 持续推荐银轮股份。银轮股份的发展史就是抓住产业机遇+头部客户的历史，我们预计 2025 年公司归母净利润为 11.06 亿元，目前股价对应 25 年 PE 21 倍，公司作为汽车热管理领域的头部 Tier1，具有强大的配套研发能力和客户服务体 系，机器人业务进展有望持续超预期，继续推荐。 核心策略和推荐标的不变。当前我们认为 T 为代表的巨头供应链仍然是最核心投资主线，考虑 3-4 月灵巧手发布的事 件催化，重点关注：（1）灵巧手的边际变化，即微型丝杠和触觉传感器；（2）关注宇 ...

基本内容 过去四年，拜登政府践行了强烈的干预主义和遏制政策，虽然在一段时间内的某些方面给人以压力，却是不顾国力减 弱、内部矛盾激化的现实的奋力一击，最终以选举惨败收场。特朗普 2.0 全盘否定了拜登的外交路线，取而代之以门 罗主义和缓和政策，并附加以鲜明的意识形态偏好和关税威胁。历史上，每次美国外交政策的重大调整，都对世界秩 序产生了显著影响。这一次，欧洲率先感到了压力，美国的战略收缩、特朗普的意识形态冲突、俄罗斯的潜在威胁， 令欧洲的安防形势面临自二战结束以来最严峻的考验。 风险提示 1）美国内外部形势发生明显变化；2）欧洲重新武装等政策落实存在不确定性 敬请参阅最后一页特别声明 1 扫码获取更多服务 宏观专题研究报告 上任两个多月，特朗普 2.0 看似是一场乱局，比如朝令夕改的关税威胁、出其不意的领土诉求、疾风暴雨的政府裁员、 全周无休的媒体轰炸。但实际上，特朗普 2.0 的政治逻辑清晰连贯，对美国现状有认知，对长期愿景有规划，对短期 举措有安排。 一、现状认知和长期愿景 正如他的标志性口号"Make America Great Again"，在特朗普眼中，美国或许已经不那么伟大。特朗普生于 1946 年 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a price increase of over 15% in the next 6-12 months [4]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 86.4 billion yuan for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 7.7%, but the net profit attributable to shareholders fell to 1.04 billion yuan, a decline of 67.3% [1][4]. - The decline in net profit is primarily attributed to the downturn in the real estate market, with a gross margin of 10.5% for 2024, down 4.8 percentage points year-on-year [2]. - The company demonstrated stronger sales performance compared to peers, with a contract sales amount of 114.5 billion yuan in 2024, a decrease of 19.4%, while the top 10 real estate companies saw a decline of 24.4% [2]. - The company has set a sales target of 120.5 billion yuan for 2025, representing a 5.2% increase compared to the 2024 sales completion [2]. Financial Performance - The company maintains a healthy financial position, with key financial metrics remaining in the green zone as of the end of 2024. The asset-liability ratio, net debt ratio, and cash-to-short-term debt ratio are 68.1%, 51.7%, and 2.1 times, respectively [3]. - The total borrowings amount to 103.9 billion yuan, a slight decrease of 0.5% year-on-year, with short-term debt accounting for 22% of total borrowings [3]. - The weighted average borrowing cost has decreased to 3.49%, down by 0.33 percentage points year-on-year [3]. Future Projections - The company is expected to experience a bottoming phase in settlement performance for 2024-2025, with potential recovery in profit performance as high-margin projects are recognized and impairment pressures ease [4]. - Projected net profits for 2025-2027 are estimated at 1.02 billion yuan, 1.24 billion yuan, and 1.36 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of -1.9%, +21.4%, and +10.1%, respectively [4].

Group 1: Stock Index Futures Market Overview - The overall performance of the four major index futures was mixed, with the CSI 1000 index futures experiencing the largest decline of -1.51%, while the CSI 50 index futures saw the largest increase of 0.25% [3][11] - The average trading volume of the four major index futures contracts varied, with the IM contract increasing by 1.84% and the IF contract decreasing by -29.84% compared to the previous week [3][11] - As of last Friday's close, the annualized basis rates for the current contracts of IF, IC, IM, and IH were -3.65%, -11.56%, -13.88%, and -0.37% respectively, indicating a deepening of the discount for IF and IC while the discount for IM and IH narrowed [3][11] Group 2: Cross-Period Spread and Dividend Forecast - The cross-period spread rates for the new monthly contracts of IF, IC, IM, and IH were at the 45.10%, 64.70%, 27.80%, and 78.60% percentiles since 2019, indicating a return to normal distribution [4][12] - The estimated impact of dividends on the index points for the CSI 300, CSI 500, SSE 50, and CSI 1000 indices over the next year is projected to be 82.21, 82.79, 64.78, and 61.57 respectively [4][12][50] Group 3: Market Expectations and Seller Strategy Insights - Market expectations indicate a high correlation between basis changes and investor trading sentiment, with limited impact from recent U.S. tariff policies [4][13] - A summary of over 20 sell-side strategy reports from March 24 to March 31 revealed that 7 brokerages believe ongoing policy implementation and capital market reforms will enhance the attractiveness of Chinese assets, while 6 brokerages see structural valuation opportunities in sectors such as non-ferrous metals, high-dividend stocks, and innovative pharmaceuticals [5][49]