2024 年 11 月 05 日 证券研究报告 | 产业月报 消费侧氢价指数持续下降，可再生能源制氢规模有望提升 氢能月度报告 分析师：张锦 分析师登记编码：S0890521080001 电话：021-20321304 9 月可再生能源制氢规模上升：9 月上海/北京/广东/河南/河北高纯氢（≥4N） 市场主流价格为 2.7/2.3/2/2.1/2.2 元/Nm3，环比上月持平。根据中国氢能联盟， 9 月中国氢价指数生产侧指数同比下跌至 28.2 元/千克。可再生能源制氢方面， 9 月全国共有 80 个可再生制氢能源项目，合计可再生能源制氢规模达 974.8MW。从地区来看已覆盖 25 个省（直辖市，自治区），涉及 72 家企业。 技术路线以碱性电解水制氢（AE）为主，项目规模达到 845.3 兆瓦，占比 86.7%； 电力来源主要为光伏，项目规模达到 704 兆瓦，占比 72.2%；应用方向以交通 为主，项目规模达到 335.3 兆瓦，占比 34.4%。 邮箱：zhangjin@cnhbstock.com 分析师：张后来 分析师登记编码：S0890524080004 电话：021-20321084 消费侧价格 ...

Investment Rating - Investment rating for the iron ore industry is "Recommended" [4] Core Viewpoints - Iron ore demand remains high with a week-on-week price increase of 3.22% [3][4] - The supply of imported iron ore increased by 8.27% this week, while the arrival volume decreased by 6.6% [1][4] - Domestic iron ore production showed a slight increase of 0.1% week-on-week, maintaining an overall surplus in supply [1][4] Supply Summary - The total shipment of iron ore from Australia and Brazil reached 24.81 million tons, an increase of 1.896 million tons or 8.27% compared to the previous week [1][7] - The shipment volumes from major mining companies to China were as follows: Rio Tinto at 6.04 million tons (+19.41%), BHP at 5.368 million tons (+5.77%), Vale at 6.363 million tons (+1.21%), and FMG at 2.312 million tons (-18.82%) [1][7] - The total arrival volume of iron ore at Chinese ports was 22.126 million tons, down 6.6% week-on-week [1][7] Demand Summary - Daily average iron water production decreased slightly by 0.09% but remains higher than the same period in 2021 and 2022 [2][4] - The average daily consumption of imported iron ore was 2.9055 million tons, a decrease of 0.1% week-on-week [2][8] - The capacity utilization rate of blast furnaces was 88.4%, a slight decrease of 0.08 percentage points [2][8] Price and Profitability Summary - The average price index for iron ore (62% Fe: CFR: Qingdao Port) was $103.23 per ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of $3.22 [3][8] - The profitability rate of steel companies decreased by 3.9 percentage points to 61.04% [3][8] - Despite the decrease in profitability, steel companies are expected to maintain a certain level of production due to ongoing profits [4]

Group 1 - The report highlights increased global market volatility as the US election approaches, with fluctuations in the "Trump trade" and expectations of a 50 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve due to weaker non-farm employment data affected by hurricanes [1][4]. - Domestic PMI has returned to the growth line, with production indicators outperforming new orders, indicating that policy efforts are driving production recovery, while demand recovery still requires more policy implementation [1][4]. - The A-share market saw an increase in trading activity, with an average daily turnover of 20,885 billion yuan, up 1,787 billion yuan from the previous week, indicating that market activity remains at historical high levels [1][4][11]. Group 2 - The report notes a structural divergence in the A-share market, with large-cap indices like the Shanghai Composite Index and CSI 300 experiencing valuation declines, while smaller-cap indices like the CSI 1000 and ChiNext saw further valuation increases [6][7]. - The A-share risk premium has slightly decreased and is currently below one standard deviation, while the equity-bond yield ratio for the Shanghai dividend stocks is near negative one standard deviation [8][10]. - The industry rotation index indicates that the speed of industry rotation is at historical lows, with technology growth sectors performing relatively well, while cyclical sectors are weaker [11][12]. Group 3 - Key upcoming events include the US election results on November 6, the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision on November 8, and the National People's Congress Standing Committee meeting from November 4-8, which may focus on debt relief and real estate support policies [12].

Macro Strategy Overview - The report highlights the strong performance of the US economy, with a slight decline in GDP growth in Q3 but sustained consumer momentum. The market anticipates a near 100% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in November, with an 82.55% chance of another cut in December, indicating a total potential reduction of 50 basis points for the year [3][22]. - The uncertainty surrounding the US presidential election is emphasized, with different outcomes potentially leading to varied impacts on asset prices. The report notes that if Trump is elected, it could negatively affect the A-share export trade chain, while Harris's election may lead to a recovery in export expectations [4][24]. Domestic Economic Environment - The report indicates that since the end of September, there have been clear signals of policy expansion, with expectations of increased debt and deficit to support areas like debt reduction, real estate rescue, and consumption stimulation. This has positively impacted market sentiment [7]. - Economic indicators show marginal improvement, with a Q3 GDP growth rate of 4.6%, driven by broad infrastructure and high appliance consumption. However, challenges such as low inflation, corporate profitability, and insufficient effective demand remain, necessitating further policies to boost employment and consumption [9]. A-share Investment Insights - The report outlines investment strategies based on the outcomes of the US election and domestic policy scenarios. If Trump wins and domestic demand policies exceed expectations, there could be structural opportunities in consumption and technology sectors. Conversely, if Harris wins, there may be a shift towards technology growth and small-cap opportunities [10]. - Regardless of the election outcome, sectors such as technology, high-end manufacturing, and security are expected to have high certainty. Key industries to focus on include semiconductors, computers, communications, military, robotics, and high-end manufacturing [10]. Asset Allocation Outlook - The report provides a neutral outlook for A-shares and Hong Kong stocks in the short term, with a relatively optimistic medium-term view. US stocks and bonds are also viewed positively, while gold is expected to perform well due to geopolitical tensions [11]. - The report notes that the performance of A-shares has been mixed, with small-cap stocks outperforming large-cap stocks in October, driven by high market activity and policy expectations [14]. Industry Performance Review - The TMT sector showed strong performance in October, benefiting from positive quarterly results and the anticipation of policy support. In contrast, cyclical sectors performed relatively weakly [15]. - The report highlights that the market style has diverged, with small-cap growth stocks performing better, while large-cap stocks faced challenges [14]. Conclusion - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the US election results and domestic policy developments, as these factors will significantly influence market dynamics and investment strategies moving forward [4][10][24].

2024 年 11 月 04 日 证券研究报告 | 产业周报 本周钢材供需双降、库存持续去化,钢价震荡偏强运行 钢铁行业周度报告 钢铁 投资评级：推荐 (维持) 分析师:张炜 分析师登记编码：S0890521080001 电话: 021-20321304 邮箱：zhangjin@cnhbstock.com 研究助理:吴晗 邮箱：wuhan@cnhbstock.com 销售服务电话: 021-20515355 行业走势图(2024年11月01日) 8000 - 钢铁指数 沪深300 - 6000 4000 2000 资料未添: iFind, 华宝证券研究创新部 相关研究报告 1、《本周铁矿供需双增,钢厂进口矿维 持低库存运行—铁矿行业周废报告》 2024-10-29 2、《钢材库存去化速度放缓,板材消费 环比小幅增加 0.5%—钢铁行业周度报 ୫》2024-10-28 3、《9月钢材库存持续去化，政策窗口 开启 利于改善行业盈利—钢铁９月月报》 2024-10-24 敬请参阅报告结尾处免责声明 投资要点 ଥ供应：本周（10.26-11.1）钢铁供给收缩，五大材产量环比下滑 1.51%。本 期日均铁水产量（样本数 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the banking wealth management industry [1]. Core Insights - The annualized yield for cash management wealth management products is currently at 1.69%, which has decreased by over 50 basis points (BP) year-to-date [1][7]. - The average annualized yield for non-cash fixed income wealth management products over the past month is 2.20%, down 21 BP from the previous week [2][7]. - The annualized yield for closed-end fixed income products with a maturity of 6-12 months is 3.35%, a decrease of 4 BP from the previous week [2][7]. - The annualized yield for closed-end fixed income products with a maturity of 1-3 years has increased by 1 BP to 3.77% [2][7]. - The total scale of maturing wealth management products from October 21 to October 27, 2024, is 258 billion, with an average compliance rate of 53%, down 5 percentage points from the previous week [2][9]. Summary by Sections 1. Cash Management Products - As of October 27, 2024, the annualized yield for cash management products is 1.69%, a decrease of 4 BP from the previous week [1][7]. - The annualized yield for money market funds is 1.51%, down 3 BP from the previous week, with the yield gap between cash management products and money market funds narrowing by 1 BP to 18 BP [1][7]. 2. Performance Review of Wealth Management Products - The annualized yield for non-cash fixed income wealth management products over the past month is 2.20%, a decrease of 21 BP [2][7]. - The annualized yield for closed-end fixed income products with a maturity of 6-12 months is 3.35%, down 4 BP [2][7]. - The annualized yield for closed-end fixed income products with a maturity of 1-3 years has increased by 1 BP to 3.77% [2][7]. 3. Maturity and Compliance Status - From October 21 to October 27, 2024, the total scale of maturing wealth management products is 258 billion, with an average compliance rate of 53%, down 5 percentage points from the previous week [2][9]. - The compliance rate for closed-end products is notably higher at 82%, outperforming the overall compliance rate [2][9].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry [1]. Core Insights - The annualized yield for cash management financial products over the past 7 days is 1.69%, which represents a decrease of 4 basis points from the previous week [6][8]. - The annualized yield for money market funds is 1.51%, down 3 basis points from the previous week, with the yield gap between cash management products and money market funds narrowing to 18 basis points, a reduction of 1 basis point from the prior week [6][8]. - The annualized yield for non-cash fixed income financial products over the past month is 2.20%, down 21 basis points from the previous week [2][6]. - The annualized yield for closed-end fixed income products with a maturity of 6-12 months is 3.35%, down 4 basis points from the previous week [2][6]. - The annualized yield for closed-end fixed income products with a maturity of 1-3 years is 3.77%, which has increased by 1 basis point from the previous week [2][6]. Summary by Sections 1. Cash Management Product 7-Day Annualized Yield - As of October 27, 2024, the 7-day annualized yield for cash management financial products is 1.69%, a decrease of 4 basis points from the previous week [6][8]. 2. Performance Review of Financial Products Issued by Financial Companies - The report indicates that the annualized yield for non-cash fixed income financial products over the past month is 2.20%, down 21 basis points from the previous week [2][6]. - The annualized yield for closed-end fixed income products with a maturity of 6-12 months is 3.35%, down 4 basis points from the previous week [2][6]. - The annualized yield for closed-end fixed income products with a maturity of 1-3 years is 3.77%, which has increased by 1 basis point from the previous week [2][6]. 3. Maturity and Compliance Status of Financial Products - From October 21 to October 27, 2024, the total scale of maturing products from financial companies is 258 billion, with an average compliance rate of 53%, a decrease of 5 percentage points from the previous week [2][8]. - Financial companies with a 100% compliance rate include Hengfeng Wealth Management, BlackRock Jianxin Wealth Management, and Goldman Sachs ICBC Wealth Management [2][8]. - Closed-end products show a better compliance rate, averaging 82%, which is higher than the overall compliance rate [2][8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the industry [3] Core Insights - The domestic automotive market is experiencing strong growth in new energy vehicles (NEVs), with production and sales in September 2024 reaching 1.307 million and 1.287 million units, respectively, marking year-on-year increases of 48.8% and 42.3% [2][39] - The first domestic all-solid-state lithium battery production line has officially commenced operations, representing a significant advancement in battery technology with higher safety and energy density compared to traditional liquid lithium batteries [2][39] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Weekly Data Tracking 1.1. Upstream Materials - The average price of industrial-grade lithium carbonate is 69,500 CNY/ton, down 1.42% from the previous week, while battery-grade lithium carbonate averages 72,500 CNY/ton, down 1.36% [9][10] - The market for lithium hydroxide is stable, with battery-grade prices ranging from 66,000 to 71,000 CNY/ton [14][15] 1.2. Midstream Materials - The price of ternary materials has decreased, with 523 single crystal materials priced at 108,500 CNY/ton, down 0.1 million CNY/ton, and 622 polycrystalline materials at 107,000 CNY/ton, down 0.2 million CNY/ton [17][18] - The negative electrode material market remains stable, with a reference price of 32,378 CNY/ton [21][23] 1.3. Downstream Cells - The average price of square power cells (ternary) is 0.46 CNY/Wh, while phosphate iron lithium cells are priced at 0.37 CNY/Wh, both remaining stable [37][38] - In September 2024, the total production of power and other batteries reached 111.3 GWh, with a year-on-year increase of 43.3% [37][38] 2. Industry Dynamics - The first all-solid-state lithium battery production line, built by Beijing Pure Lithium New Energy Technology Co., has a target capacity of 200 MWh, capable of charging 200,000 two-wheeled vehicles simultaneously [2][39][40]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the iron ore industry is "Recommended (Maintained)" [4] Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that both supply and demand for iron ore have increased, with iron ore prices experiencing fluctuations downward due to supply growth outpacing demand growth [3][4] - The average iron ore price index (62% Fe: CFR: Qingdao Port) for the week was $100 per ton, a decrease of $3.61 per ton or 3.48% compared to the previous week [3][6] - Steel mills are maintaining low inventory levels while port inventories are at a high level, indicating a potential supply pressure in the market [4][6] Supply Summary - For the week of October 19-25, 2024, iron ore supply from Australia and Brazil increased by 2.01% and 3.4% respectively, with total shipments to China reaching 19.268 million tons, a 5.83% increase [1][6] - The total port inventory of imported iron ore across 45 ports was 153 million tons, a 0.29% increase week-on-week and a 35.8% increase year-on-year [4][6] Demand Summary - The average daily consumption of imported iron ore by 247 steel enterprises was 2.9084 million tons, a 0.66% increase week-on-week, while the average daily pig iron production rose to 2.3569 million tons, marking the eighth consecutive week of growth [2][6] - The capacity utilization rate of blast furnaces was 88.48%, up by 0.49 percentage points, and the operating rate was 82.14%, an increase of 0.46 percentage points [2][6] Price and Profitability Summary - The report notes that despite the increase in production and consumption, the profitability of steel enterprises has declined to 64.94%, a decrease of 9.52 percentage points [2][6] - The high port inventories and the ongoing supply pressure are expected to limit the upward movement of iron ore prices, with macroeconomic sentiment likely to play a significant role in price fluctuations [3][4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the steel industry is "Recommended (Maintain)" [3] Core Viewpoints - The steel industry is experiencing a slowdown in inventory destocking, with a slight increase in plate consumption by 0.5% week-on-week [1] - The overall supply of steel is expanding, while demand is decreasing, leading to a downward trend in steel prices and a rapid decline in profitability for steel companies [5] - The report highlights that the production of long products is increasing at a higher rate than that of flat products, indicating a shift in production focus [1][3] Summary by Sections Supply - The average daily pig iron output increased to 2.3569 million tons, a week-on-week rise of 0.57% [1] - The operating rate of blast furnaces rose to 82.14%, up by 0.46 percentage points [1] - Total production of the five major steel products reached 8.8058 million tons, with long products increasing by 1.7% and flat products by 0.3% [1] Consumption - Apparent consumption of the five major steel products decreased by 1.9%, primarily driven by a decline in long products [2] - Apparent consumption of long products totaled 3.3706 million tons, down 5.6%, while plate consumption increased slightly by 0.5% to 5.5674 million tons [2] Prices and Profitability - The comprehensive steel price index fell to 98.57 points, a decrease of 3.53 points week-on-week [2] - The profitability of steel companies dropped to 64.94%, a decline of 9.52 percentage points [2] - The profit margins for rebar turned negative, while hot-rolled products saw an expanded loss, and cold-rolled products remained profitable [4][5] Inventory - Total steel inventory (including social and factory inventory) was 12.5932 million tons, with a week-on-week decrease of 1% [3] - Factory inventory increased by 3.7%, while social inventory decreased by 3.2%, indicating a mixed inventory trend [3] Industry News and Company Dynamics - Notable company reports include Nanjing Steel's revenue of 49.291 billion yuan and net profit of 1.753 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 5.31% [21] - Shagang Group reported a total revenue of 10.807 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 6.29% [22]