2024 年 10 月 27 日 证券研究报告 | 策略周报 政策继续发力，市场活力进一步释放 策略周报 分析师：郝一凡 分析师登记编码：S0890524080002 电话：021-20321080 邮箱：haoyifan@cnhbstock.com 1、《震荡整固之后，双创再度大幅拉升 —策略周报》2024-10-20 2、《财政部传递"渐进式"加码信号， 夯实中长期慢牛基础—策略周报》 2024-10-13 3、《长假期间国内外大事速递—策略周 报》2024-10-07 4、《美联储降息落地，市场情绪边际改 善—策略周报》2024-09-22 5、《节前情绪低迷，量价再临冰点 —策 略周报》2024-09-17 投资要点 基本面回顾与资产配置展望：本周特朗普民调支持率上升，"特朗普交易"明显 升温，美元走强，美债收益率上行。不过当前美国多数关键摇摆州的支持率差距保 持在 2%以内，美国大选结果仍然具有不确定性。10 月 21 日 1 年期 LPR 和 5 年期以 上 LPR 报价均下调了 25 个基点。9 月以来政策发力仍在持续，此次降幅超出预 期，将对居民信贷和消费领域形成积极影响，年内 LPR 继续下 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the magnesium industry [2]. Core Insights - The magnesium industry is experiencing a significant recovery in downstream demand, with the production of magnesium alloy ingots showing a notable increase. The average magnesium ingot price has risen to 19,577.89 yuan/ton, reflecting a 0.95% increase month-on-month [1][2]. - The production of magnesium powder has increased by 6.08% to 8,212 tons, while the export price of magnesium powder has risen by 2.36% to 2,804.74 USD/ton [2]. - The automotive sector is driving demand, with national automobile production reaching 2,796,283 units in September, a 12.2% increase from the previous month [2][5]. Summary by Sections 1. Monthly Data Changes in the Magnesium Industry - The average price of raw coal in Shaanxi increased by 1.05% to 932.38 yuan/ton, while the operating rate decreased by 8.63% to 51.14% [5]. - The production cost of raw coal decreased by 1.57% to 1,302.85 yuan/ton [5]. - The production of primary magnesium increased by 0.74% to 76,920 tons, with a corresponding increase in average magnesium ingot prices [5]. 2. Monthly Data Trends in the Magnesium Industry - The report highlights a significant increase in imports and exports of magnesium products, with imports rising by 155.56% to 20.47 tons and exports increasing by 21.55% to 307.57 tons [5]. - The production of aluminum alloy ingots increased by 7.96% to 131,500 tons, indicating a recovery in demand from the automotive sector [5]. 3. Industry Outlook - The establishment of the largest rare earth production base in Baotou is expected to enhance resource recycling, including magnesium, carbon dioxide, and water, which may positively impact the magnesium industry [1]. - The report suggests focusing on magnesium production segments with low-carbon smelting technology and high-end magnesium alloy research advantages, particularly in the automotive and 3C markets [1].

Investment Rating - Investment rating: "Recommended" (maintained) [3] Core Viewpoints - Steel supply continued to decline in September, with demand showing a "peak season not booming" situation, leading to a slow recovery in steel production [8][19] - Despite a slight improvement in steel enterprise profitability, the overall profit margin remains below 10%, suppressing production enthusiasm among steel mills [2][3] - The macroeconomic policies introduced in late September are expected to gradually improve terminal demand for steel, providing upward momentum for steel prices [2][3] Summary by Sections 1. September Steel Supply and Demand - In September, crude steel production was 77.07 million tons, down 6.1% year-on-year, while steel product output was 117.31 million tons, down 0.4% year-on-year [8][11] - The average weekly apparent consumption of five major steel products was 8.76 million tons, down 7.5% year-on-year [12][13] - Inventory levels for various steel products decreased significantly, with rebar inventory down 30.3% compared to the end of August [10][11] 2. October Macroeconomic Policies - The introduction of favorable policies related to real estate is expected to stabilize the construction industry gradually [19][21] - Infrastructure investment growth remains relatively stable, with 2.3 trillion yuan in special bond funds available for use in the next three months [25][26] 3. Steel Mill Production and Raw Material Prices - Steel mills are experiencing slow recovery in production, with raw material prices showing a downward trend [3][4] - The average profit margin for steel mills improved slightly to 9.74% in September, but profitability remains a concern [2][3] 4. Improvement in Profitability - The average profit for rebar, hot-rolled, and cold-rolled steel products showed signs of narrowing losses, with rebar profit improving by over 200 yuan per ton [2][3] - As of October 18, the profitability of steel enterprises rebounded to 74.46%, indicating a potential increase in production enthusiasm [2][3] 5. Steel Price Trends - The steel price index for September was 91.26, down 2.6% month-on-month and down 16.3% year-on-year, indicating a slight decline in prices [14][15] - Prices for long products showed better performance compared to flat products, with rebar prices increasing by 2.2% month-on-month [15][16]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the banking wealth management industry Core Insights - The adjustment in deposit rates by major banks is aimed at stabilizing net interest margins while responding to market conditions [5][6] - The performance of wealth management products is stabilizing as the impact of bond market adjustments diminishes [2][11] Summary by Sections 1. Deposit Rate Adjustment - On October 18, major state-owned banks announced a reduction in RMB deposit rates, with the interest rate for demand deposits dropping from 0.15% to 0.1% and term deposit rates decreasing by 25 basis points [5][6] - This marks the fifth reduction in deposit rates by major banks in 2023, with significant cuts in long-term deposit rates, totaling a cumulative reduction of 110 basis points for 3-year and 5-year deposits [5][6] 2. Cash Management Product 7-Day Annualized Yield - As of October 20, 2024, the 7-day annualized yield for cash management products was 1.73%, a decrease of 2 basis points from the previous week [8] - The yield for money market funds remained stable at 1.54%, resulting in a narrowing yield gap of 19 basis points between cash management products and money market funds [8] 3. Wealth Management Product Performance Review - As of October 20, 2024, the annualized yield for daily open fixed-income non-cash wealth management products was 2.41%, an increase of 24 basis points from the previous week [10] - The annualized yield for closed 6-12 month fixed-income wealth management products was 3.39%, up 14 basis points, while the yield for closed 1-3 year fixed-income products was 3.76%, an increase of 7 basis points [10] 4. Wealth Management Product Expiry and Compliance Rates - From October 14 to October 20, 2024, the scale of expired products from wealth management companies was 260.1 billion, with an average compliance rate of 58%, up 13 percentage points from the previous week [11][12] - The compliance rate for closed products was notably higher at 79%, outperforming the overall compliance rate [11][12]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the banking wealth management industry Core Insights - The adjustment in deposit rates by major state-owned banks is the fifth reduction in 2023, with significant cuts in long-term deposit rates, particularly a cumulative reduction of 110 basis points for 3-year and 5-year deposits [5][6] - The recent decline in deposit rates is part of a broader strategy to stabilize net interest margins for commercial banks, following a reduction in the central bank's policy rates [5][6] - The performance of wealth management products is stabilizing, with an increase in the average compliance rate of maturing products to 58%, up 13 percentage points from the previous week [11] Summary by Sections 1. Deposit Rate Adjustment - On October 18, major state-owned banks announced a reduction in RMB deposit rates, affecting both demand and time deposits, with the one-year deposit rate adjusted to 1.10% [5][6] - Following the state-owned banks, several joint-stock banks also lowered their deposit rates, aligning closely with the reductions made by state-owned banks [5][6] 2. Cash Management Product Yield - As of October 20, 2024, the annualized yield for cash management products over the past 7 days was 1.73%, a decrease of 2 basis points from the previous week [8] - The yield for money market funds remained stable at 1.54%, resulting in a narrowing yield gap of 19 basis points between cash management products and money market funds [8] 3. Wealth Management Product Performance Review - The annualized yield for daily open fixed-income non-cash wealth management products over the past month was 2.41%, an increase of 24 basis points from the previous week [10] - The annualized yield for closed 6-12 month fixed-income wealth management products was 3.39%, up 14 basis points, while the yield for closed 1-3 year fixed-income products was 3.76%, an increase of 7 basis points [10] 4. Maturity and Compliance Status - From October 14 to October 20, the scale of maturing products from wealth management companies was 260.1 billion, with an average compliance rate of 58% [11] - Closed-end products showed a higher average compliance rate of 79%, outperforming the overall compliance rate [11]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the hydrogen energy industry is "Recommended (Maintain)" [2] Core Viewpoints - The introduction of hydrogen energy policies in Hubei Province and Handan City is expected to radiate to surrounding areas, driving the development of the hydrogen energy industry in the central and eastern regions of China [2][14] - The "Hubei Province Action Plan for Accelerating the Development of the Hydrogen Energy Industry (2024-2027)" aims to establish Hubei as a significant hydrogen energy hub by 2030, with a total industrial output value of 100 billion yuan, including 30 billion yuan from hydrogen production [7][8] - Handan City plans to construct a hydrogen energy industry layout characterized by "one core, two wings, two corridors, and multiple points," focusing on enhancing innovation capabilities and expanding application scenarios [4][5] Summary by Sections Handan City Hydrogen Energy Development Plan - Handan City aims to promote 300 fuel cell vehicles and build 5 hydrogen refueling stations by 2024, with plans to increase to 2,000 fuel cell vehicles and 33 hydrogen stations by 2030, achieving an annual green hydrogen production capacity of 600 tons [4][5][7] Hubei Province Hydrogen Energy Action Plan - The action plan targets the establishment of a hydrogen energy industrial layout centered around Wuhan by 2027, with a total industrial output value of 100 billion yuan, including 30 billion yuan from hydrogen production and 40 billion yuan from hydrogen energy equipment and components [8][9] Central Region Hydrogen Energy Development - The central region's hydrogen energy industry is expected to accelerate due to the gradual rollout of policies and completion of supporting infrastructure, with Handan City likely to collaborate with the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region and Inner Mongolia to develop the hydrogen energy industry [10][12][14]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the industry [4]. Core Viewpoints - The overall industry outlook remains positive, with a focus on monitoring upstream raw material price trends, monthly sales, and the implementation of industry regulations. The long-term prospects for the domestic and international new energy vehicle industry are deemed certain, making the sector worthy of attention. It is expected that individual stock performance will show differentiation, suggesting a focus on leading companies in specific segments [3][4]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Data - The average price of industrial-grade lithium carbonate is 70,500 CNY/ton, down 4.73% from the previous week. The average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate is 73,500 CNY/ton, down 4.55% [2][62]. - The price of 523 single crystal power materials is 109,500 CNY/ton, down 0.08 CNY/ton from last week. The price of 622 multi-crystal materials is 109,000 CNY/ton, down 0.03 CNY/ton. The price of high-nickel 811 multi-crystal power materials is 145,000 CNY/ton, down 0.05 CNY/ton [2][74]. 2. Downstream Demand - In the first nine months of 2024, the cumulative sales of power and other batteries in China reached 685.7 GWh, a year-on-year increase of 42.5%. Power battery sales accounted for 525.3 GWh, a year-on-year increase of 26.1% [3][106]. - In September 2024, the production and sales of new energy vehicles reached 1.307 million and 1.287 million units, respectively, with year-on-year growth of 48.8% and 42.3%, increasing market share to 45.8% [3][107]. 3. Market Dynamics - The commercial vehicle market is under pressure, with September 2024 wholesale sales down 23.49% year-on-year, while cumulative sales from January to September decreased by 1.56% [3][108]. - The report highlights that the overall market for commercial vehicles continues to face downward pressure, particularly in the truck segment, which saw a 25.73% year-on-year decline in September [3][108]. 4. Price Trends - The report notes that the prices of various materials, including lithium carbonate and battery materials, are experiencing downward pressure due to market dynamics and demand fluctuations [2][74][90]. - The average price of electrolyte remains stable, with phosphoric acid lithium electrolyte at 18,600 CNY/ton and ternary/conventional power electrolyte at 25,300 CNY/ton [90]. 5. Production and Inventory - The production of lithium carbonate for the week of October 12-18, 2024, was approximately 13,500 tons, showing a slight decrease of 0.36% from the previous week [65]. - The inventory of lithium hydroxide is reported at 16,300 tons, down 1.21% from the previous week, indicating a stable supply situation [73]. 6. Battery Cell Market - The average price of square power cells (ternary) is stable at 0.46 CNY/Wh, while the price for square power cells (lithium iron phosphate) is 0.37 CNY/Wh [105]. - The total production of power and other batteries in September 2024 was 111.3 GWh, with a year-on-year increase of 43.3% [106]. 7. Company Performance - CATL reported a third-quarter revenue of 92.278 billion CNY, a year-on-year decrease of 12.48%, while net profit increased by 25.97% [110].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the iron ore industry is "Recommended" [3] Core Viewpoints - The average daily pig iron production continues to increase, reaching 2.34 million tons per day, but the growth rate has slowed down [3][4] - The supply pressure for imported iron ore has eased, with a year-on-year increase of 8% in port arrivals, indicating a relatively loose overall supply [4] - Steel mills are resuming production, supported by improved profitability, but the growth in production is expected to be limited in the short term due to rising coke prices [4] Supply Summary - During the week of October 12-18, the total shipment of iron ore from Australia and Brazil was 22.46 million tons, a slight decrease of 0.63% from the previous week [6] - The shipment volumes to China from major miners were as follows: Rio Tinto at 4.95 million tons (+9.96%), BHP at 4.26 million tons (-8.88%), Vale at 5.66 million tons (-13.65%), and FMG at 3.35 million tons (-5.56%) [6][7] - The total port inventory of imported iron ore reached 153 million tons, an increase of 1.27% week-on-week and 37.4% year-on-year, indicating high inventory levels [7] Demand Summary - The average daily consumption of iron ore by steel enterprises was 2.89 million tons, with a slight increase of 0.27% [8] - The capacity utilization rate of blast furnaces was 87.99%, up by 0.48 percentage points, while the operating rate was 81.68%, an increase of 0.89 percentage points [8] - The profitability of steel enterprises improved to 74.46%, reflecting a recovery in operational efficiency [8] Price and Profitability Summary - The average price index for iron ore (62% Fe: CFR: Qingdao Port) was $103.61 per ton, a decrease of $2.17 per ton or 2.05% week-on-week [8] - The rising costs of coke have pressured steel mill profits, contributing to a slowdown in production resumption [4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the steel industry is "Recommended" [3] Core Viewpoints - The supply side of the steel industry continues to expand, with a notable increase in consumption by 2.03% week-on-week [2][4] - Macro policies are expected to boost steel demand, leading to a positive outlook for the market [4][19] - The overall inventory of steel continues to decrease, with a significant drop in social inventory by 4.2% [2][4] Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Data Changes in the Steel Industry - The average daily pig iron output increased to 2.3436 million tons, up 0.55% week-on-week [9] - The operating rate of blast furnaces rose to 81.68%, an increase of 0.89 percentage points [9] - Total production of the five major steel products reached 8.7342 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 1.11% [9] 2. Weekly Data Trends Summary - Apparent consumption of the five major steel products totaled 9.1097 million tons, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 2.03% [2][10] - Long products showed a significant increase in consumption, while flat products experienced a slight decline [2][10] - The comprehensive steel price index was recorded at 102.1 points, with a slight decrease of 1.79 points [2][10] 3. Industry News and Company Dynamics - Recent macro policies, including a package of measures from the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, are expected to stimulate the steel market [19] - The steel industry is experiencing a recovery in profitability, with the profit margin for steel companies remaining above 70% [4][19] - The report highlights specific company activities, such as Shougang's export of high-strength marine steel to Europe [19]

2024 年 10 月 20 日 证券研究报告 | 策略周报 震荡整固之后，双创再度大幅拉升 策略周报 分析师：郝一凡 分析师登记编码：S0890524080002 电话：021-20321080 邮箱：haoyifan@cnhbstock.com 投资要点 基本面回顾与资产配置展望：美国大选特朗普获胜概率上升，美元近期走势偏 强，海外不确定性扰动仍然偏高；国内经济增长仍然偏弱，但 9 月已较 7-8 月有 所改善，政策仍处于发力阶段，周五习近平总书记指出"推进中国式现代化，科 技要打头阵"，提振市场对科技创新的信心。 A 股市场回顾与展望：本周（10 月 14 日-10 月 18 日）A 股市场成交活跃度回 落，两市日均成交额 16680 亿元，较前一周减少 8815 亿元，市场活跃度回落但仍 然较高。在前一周市场调整后，本周市场震荡整固，A 股市场情回落但仍处于活跃 状态。周五总书记关于科技的讲话提振市场信心，成长科技板块大幅反弹带动大盘 回升。预计短期内市场仍处于震荡整固阶段，科技成长板块预计相对占优，但波动 相对偏高，需与投资者风险偏好相匹配。 相关研究报告 1、《财政部传递"渐进式"加码信号， 夯实 ...