微盘风格展望与 DCN 产品的影响 20250604 摘要 微盘风格近期表现强势主要有以下六大因素：首先，政策端释放了科创小微企 业的活力。自 2024 年以来，政策维度出台了很多利好小微企业发展的政策， 例如 2025 年 5 月发布的重组办法，包括精简审核流程、放宽支付工具限制和 私募基金可入股微盘股等，这些措施提供了新的资金来源和产业资源支持。其 次，从市场环境来看，中国金融市场目前处于流动性较为宽松的格局，社融和 M2 增速同步扩张，加上央行全面降准的政策支持，使得流动性充裕时过剩资 金倾向于追逐高弹性资产，以获取超额收益。第三，从量化预测模型来看，机 构持仓集中度和大小盘 PB 比值分位数这两个指标对于微盘风格表现有一定的 预测能力，目前这两个指标都处于历史低位，利好微盘风格。第四，从资金类 型分析，高风险偏好的资金参与度较高，如融资参与度较高，而北向资金参与 度非常低，仅有少数符合要求的成分股。第五，微盘风格存在显著日历效应， 例如每年 4 月下跌、5 月上涨、11 月上涨、1 月下跌，这次 5 月行情也与历史 相符。最后，从风险端来看，通过量化风格拥挤度模型判断，目前拥挤信号得 分为 1 分，处 ...

【 机构观点综评 】 华泰证券认为，港股有望继续吸引全球配置型资金流入，或进一步外溢至A股。 国泰海通证券指出，转债市场未来或因供需错配而迎来牛市。 一、焦点锐评 1．特朗普将钢铁关税提高至50%，欧盟准备反制 当地时间5月30日，美国总统特朗普在宾夕法尼亚州举行的一场集会上表示，将把进口钢铁的关税从 25%提高至50%。随后，特朗普在社交媒体平台上发文表示，该决定从6月4日（周三）起生效。当地时 间5月31日，欧盟委员会在一份声明中对美国宣布提高进口钢铝关税表示遗憾，并表示欧盟准备采取反 制措施。 【解读】美国是欧盟钢铁的主要出口市场，对于美国大幅提升钢铁进口关税，欧盟反应强烈，准备反 制。全球关税战阶段缓和后，不排除再度趋紧，特朗普政策不确定性仍然是大类资产配置的主线。中信 证券认为，在目前特朗普影响市场的模式中，"特朗普看跌期权"仍然生效。在今年底至明年初之前，美 债或为4%~5%区间震荡行情；黄金仍然是最具确定性的资产。 二、权益市场 1.中信证券：核心资产定价权逐步向南转移 中信证券策略团队认为，优质核心资产在港股正式交易后，短期会活跃对应A股的交易，部分核心资产 定价权可能会逐步南移，背后是港股市 ...

盘面上，可控核聚变概念大幅回调，机器人、CPO概念全线下挫；医药股逆势大涨，科兴制药创历史新 高；农业、养殖、银行等防御行业飘红，其中杭州银行、成都银行双双创历史新高。 至午间收盘时，上证指数早盘收报3353.07点，跌0.31%。深证成指早盘收报10051.62点，跌0.75%。创 业板指早盘收报1994.82点，跌0.88%。沪深300早盘收报3845.88点，跌0.33%。科创50早盘收报976.73 点，跌0.97%。 机构观点 中金公司：展望未来，微盘风格可能呈现优势边际弱化、仍存在一定结构性机会的格局。政策端对科创 小微企业的支持仍将托底流动性预期，但并购重组红利的扩散效应可能逐步减弱；流动性宽松环境虽有 利高弹性风格，但资金或逐步转向盈利分化，投资者将更着重于高成长性的优质小微企业。日历效应显 示每年5月后行情强度大概率收敛，叠加中报业绩验证压力，普涨行情或难现。虽然当前微盘拥挤信号 并未触发，但仍需警惕杠杆资金及情绪波动带来的阶段性回撤。综合来看，微盘风格未来可能仍有结构 性机会，但优势强度与持续性或有所衰减。风格高弹性带来较高波动，需要警惕日历效应衰减以及风格 波动，建议聚焦专精特新等高确定 ...

Group 1: Consumer Trends - The current consumer sector is showing three main trends: rational consumption, quality upgrades, and consumption alternatives coexisting [1] - There is a growing willingness to pay for emotional value and spiritual satisfaction in lifestyle choices [1] - Technological advancements are creating new consumption directions, presenting long-term structural "new consumption" opportunities [1] Group 2: Investment Recommendations - It is suggested to gradually shift from a balanced allocation to a more flexible allocation in consumer investments [1] - Defensive sectors include consumer internet, undervalued high-return dairy products, and mass catering, which are expected to stabilize first [1] - Cyclical sectors such as restaurant supply chains, alcoholic beverages, human resource services, and hotels are recommended for flexible allocation [1] Group 3: Electric Meter Industry - The annual demand for electric meter tenders is expected to remain around 90 million units, with a peak replacement cycle extending until 2026 [2] - Prices are continuing to decline, with an overall month-on-month decrease of approximately 9.6% [2] - Electric meter companies have shown good dividend payment history, and their valuations are currently considered low [2] Group 4: Micro-Enterprise Investment Landscape - The micro-enterprise investment style may show diminishing marginal advantages, but there are still structural opportunities [3] - Policy support for small and micro technology enterprises is expected to underpin liquidity expectations [3] - The market may see a shift towards high-growth quality small and micro enterprises as liquidity conditions remain favorable [3]

Market Performance - On May 29, A-shares saw a collective rise in the three major indices, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.70%, the Shenzhen Component Index up 1.24%, and the ChiNext Index up 1.37% [2][3] - The total market turnover reached 1213.4 billion yuan, an increase of 179.5 billion yuan compared to the previous day, with over 4400 stocks rising [2] - Leading sectors included autonomous driving, innovative pharmaceuticals, and mobile payments, while precious metals and food sectors experienced declines [2] International Market Overview - The New York stock market indices rose on May 29, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average up 0.28%, the S&P 500 up 0.40%, and the Nasdaq Composite up 0.39% [3] - In contrast, European indices fell, with the FTSE 100 down 0.11%, the CAC 40 down 0.11%, and the DAX down 0.44% [3] Oil Prices - International oil prices declined on May 29, with light crude oil futures for July delivery down $0.90 to $60.94 per barrel, a decrease of 1.46%, and Brent crude down $0.75 to $64.15 per barrel, a decrease of 1.16% [4] Trade Relations and Policies - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce urged the U.S. to stop discriminatory restrictions against China, emphasizing the need to maintain the consensus reached in the Geneva high-level talks [6][7] - The Ministry also called for the complete removal of unilateral tariffs imposed by the U.S., highlighting the negative impact of such measures on international trade and domestic economic stability [7][10] Industry Insights - According to CICC, the micro-cap style may show diminishing advantages but still presents structural opportunities, with ongoing support for small and micro enterprises from policy measures [11] - Huatai Securities noted that tariffs and high interest rates may lead to tightening effects on the U.S. economy, suggesting a cautious outlook for U.S. stocks in the short term [11] - CITIC Securities highlighted the integration of AI and robotics as a significant trend, with Chinese companies positioned well within the global supply chain [11] Key Announcements - The Chinese government issued guidelines to enhance the market-oriented allocation of resource and environmental factors by 2027, aiming to improve trading systems for carbon emissions and water rights [5] - The domestic fuel surcharge for air travel will be adjusted starting June 5, with routes under 800 kilometers exempt from the surcharge, which is expected to positively impact domestic travel prices [9]

Core Viewpoint - The report from China International Capital Corporation (CICC) indicates that while the micro-cap style has shown strong performance, its advantages may weaken over time, although there are still structural opportunities available [1] Policy Support - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) released guidelines on May 16 to optimize the regulation of mergers and acquisitions, which encourages the integration of small and micro enterprises, providing additional funding sources and reducing liquidity pressure for micro-cap stocks [2] - The impact of the new restructuring guidelines on micro-cap stocks is expected to be marginally weaker compared to previous policies, but it still offers long-term support to the market [2] Market Environment - The current financial market in China is characterized by a relatively loose liquidity environment, supported by synchronized expansion in social financing and M2 growth, along with comprehensive reserve requirement ratio cuts by the central bank [2] - This loose liquidity environment provides systematic support for the performance of high-elasticity styles, including micro-cap stocks [2] Predictive Indicators - The report indicates that the current low concentration of institutional holdings and the lower popularity of large-cap styles are favorable for micro-cap styles [2] - The decreasing PB ratio of large-cap to small-cap stocks since the second half of 2024 suggests a gradual shift of funds towards small-cap styles, enhancing the funding support and popularity for micro-cap styles [2] Funding Types - As of May 27, 2025, among the 400 stocks in the Wind Micro-Cap Index, 72 stocks have a financing participation ratio of 3% or more, and 19 stocks have a financing participation ratio of 5% or more, indicating a high level of participation from high-risk preference funds [3] - Institutional investors have shown increased interest in micro-cap stocks, although they remain cautious in their investment strategies due to risk considerations [3] Calendar Effect - Historical data shows a higher probability of price increases for micro-cap stocks in May, with specific months exhibiting distinct calendar effects [3] - The performance of micro-cap stocks is significantly influenced by the timing of earnings announcements due to their smaller size and initial growth stage [3] Crowding Risk - Currently, the micro-cap style has not triggered any crowding signals, indicating a lower risk of short-term pullbacks due to excessive crowding [3]

摘要 点击小程序查看报告原文 Abstract 近期微盘风格表现强势，截至2025/5/27，万得微盘股指数领跑市场，2025年5月单月涨幅9.31%，月均成交额277亿元，YTD收益率24.37%。本文对于微盘 风格强势的原因进行拆解，从宏观政策、市场环境、事件效应等多维度分析微盘风格占优背后因素。 近期微盘风格优势背后——六大因素分析 1. 政策利好：政策端释放科创小微企业活力。 5月16日中国证监会发布的《关于优化上市公司并购重组监管的指导意见》[1]鼓励企业优化整合，为部分微 盘股提供额外资金来源、降低流动性压力，同时激励市场发掘优质小微企业的成长性，推动风格行情。相较于"并购六条"[2]，作为配套政策的《重组办 法》对微盘股提振效应边际弱化，但仍通过完善制度框架为市场提供长期支撑。 2. 市场环境：流动性宽松有利高弹性风格。 中国金融市场目前呈现流动性较为宽松的格局，主要体现为社会融资规模与M2同比增速的同步扩张，叠加央 行全面降准的政策支持。这一环境也为微盘股风格等高弹性风格的表现提供了系统性支撑。 3. 预测指标：机构持仓较分散、大盘风格热度偏低利好微盘风格。 通过系统性的中长期宏观与市场指标测 ...