Macroeconomic Overview - Q4 GDP growth reached 5.4%, exceeding market expectations of 5% and contributing to an annual GDP growth of 5%[22] - December industrial value-added output grew by 6.2%, surpassing the expected 5.5%[22] - December retail sales increased by 3.7%, slightly above the expected 3.5%[22] Trade and Export Data - December exports rose by 10.7% year-on-year, exceeding the forecast of 7.5%, while imports grew by 1%, against an expected decline of 1%[10] - The trade surplus for December was $104.84 billion, higher than the anticipated $100 billion[10] Financial Data Insights - December new RMB loans totaled 990 billion, compared to 1.17 trillion in the same month last year, and above the forecast of 843 billion[16] - Social financing in December was 2.86 trillion, significantly higher than the previous year's 1.93 trillion and the expected 2.10 trillion[16] Market Reactions and Trends - The stock market saw a significant increase, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 2.31% and the Shenzhen Component Index by 3.73%[9] - The bond market experienced a rise in yields, with the 10-year government bond yield increasing by 2.25 basis points[9] Risks and Challenges - The report highlights potential risks including slower-than-expected recovery in the economy and tighter-than-expected monetary policy from the Federal Reserve[5] - There are concerns regarding the impact of potential trade frictions on market sentiment and economic performance[5]

Investment Rating - The report suggests focusing on the domestic semiconductor self-controllable industry chain [4]. Core Viewpoints - The report highlights the increasing importance of domestic substitution in the semiconductor industry due to intensified U.S. sanctions against China, particularly in AI chips, smart driving, and advanced process chip foundry [4]. - TSMC's optimistic outlook on AI-related revenue growth, projecting a 45% CAGR over the next five years, is expected to alleviate market concerns regarding the sustainability of AI growth [4]. Weekly Market Review - The TMT sector outperformed the CSI 300 index, with notable weekly gains in sub-sectors such as marketing agency (13.17%), analog chip design (10.26%), and communication network equipment (8.70%) [4]. - Top-performing stocks in the electronics sector included Jin'an International (44.71%), Qingyi Optoelectronics (34.91%), and Shengbang Co. (26.39%) [4]. Industry News and Key Company Announcements - The U.S. government has intensified semiconductor restrictions against China, emphasizing the need to focus on domestic self-controllable industry chains, including semiconductor foundry and advanced packaging [4]. - TSMC's earnings call indicated that AI will be a major growth driver, with overall revenue expected to grow at a CAGR of 20% over the next five years [4]. - Significant events in January included the release of new AI models and advancements in AI applications, indicating a robust growth trajectory in the AI sector [19][20].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry, but it suggests a positive outlook for various sectors within the equipment manufacturing industry, particularly engineering machinery and wind power [1]. Core Insights - The engineering machinery sector is experiencing stable growth in external demand and structural improvement in internal demand, with 11 out of 12 major products showing year-on-year export growth in December 2024 [3]. - The automotive sector's wholesale sales in the first two weeks of January 2025 maintained year-on-year growth, but showed a decline compared to the previous month, indicating potential pressure on sales due to the Lunar New Year [3]. - The wind power industry is expected to continue its upward trend, with projected new installed capacity in China for 2025 estimated between 105GW and 115GW, representing a year-on-year growth of 19.31% to 30.68% [3]. Summary by Sections Market Review - In the week of January 13-17, 2025, the indices for machinery equipment, electric power equipment, and automotive sectors increased by 5.37%, 3.66%, and 4.57% respectively, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index which rose by 2.14% [8][10]. Industry Data - The engineering machinery sector's internal demand is expected to improve due to favorable domestic economic policies, with a notable increase in the operational workload and construction rates [3]. - The automotive sector is projected to benefit from new policies encouraging vehicle scrappage and trade-ins, which may support higher sales throughout 2025 despite short-term pressures [3]. - The wind power sector's project approvals increased significantly in 2024, providing strong support for future installation demands [3]. Company Announcements - Various companies within the industry are making strategic moves, such as partnerships for developing new technologies and products, indicating a proactive approach to market opportunities [19][21].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry, but it highlights a positive market trend with a 2.67% increase in the pharmaceutical and biotechnology index, outperforming the CSI 300 index [2][7]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the ongoing enhancement of payment policies in the healthcare sector, particularly the introduction of a new category (Category C) for high-value innovative drugs that are currently not included in the basic medical insurance directory. This is expected to boost the payment capacity for innovative treatments such as cell and gene therapies [2][10]. - The report notes a decrease in flu-like cases reported by sentinel hospitals in southern and northern provinces, indicating a potential peak in flu cases [2][10]. Market Weekly Review - The pharmaceutical and biotechnology index rose by 2.67%, outperforming the CSI 300 index (2.14%) but underperforming the Wind All A index (3.61%). Small-cap stocks remain favored [7]. - The best-performing sector was medical consumables, which increased by 5.03%, followed by hospitals (3.2%) and pharmaceutical distribution (2.61%). The only sector that declined was offline pharmacies, which fell by 0.47% [7][8]. - Notable individual stock performances included Dabo Medical (21.74% increase), Changshan Pharmaceutical (18.88% increase), and Ailisi (18.54% increase). Conversely, Pulley Pharmaceutical (-15.63%), Kangwei Century (-14.19%), and Jiudian Pharmaceutical (-11.23%) saw the largest declines [9][10]. Industry News and Key Company Announcements - The National Healthcare Security Administration announced plans to release the first version of the Category C medical insurance directory within 2025, focusing on innovative drugs with significant clinical value [10][15]. - The report highlights various company announcements, including Johnson & Johnson's acquisition of Intra-Cellular Therapies for approximately $14.6 billion and Eli Lilly's acquisition of Scorpion Therapeutics' PI3Kα inhibitor project [18][19]. - The report also mentions the financial performance forecasts of several companies, indicating a mixed outlook with some companies expecting losses while others anticipate revenue growth [19][20].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry, but it suggests a positive outlook based on recent trends and developments in the consumer sector. Core Insights - The influx of overseas users into Xiaohongshu is beneficial for quality brand merchants, with a significant increase in active users from the U.S. from approximately 300,000 to nearly 3.4 million in just one week [2][4]. - The report highlights strong performance in various consumer sectors, with notable stock price increases in food and beverage, home appliances, and retail sectors [4][14]. - The pet supplies market is projected to maintain high growth, with companies like Zhongchong Co. and Yiyi Co. forecasting substantial profit increases for 2024 [4][16]. Market Weekly Review - The consumer sector saw a broad increase, with social services, retail, beauty care, textiles, food and beverage, and home appliances rising by 6.39%, 4.67%, 4.34%, 3.16%, 2.10%, and 0.03% respectively, while the CSI 300 index rose by 2.14% [4][14]. - Leading stocks included Laiyifen (+31.79%), Huoxingren (+21.42%), and Aimer (+46.05%), while the biggest losers were Dongpeng Beverage (-12.26%) and Tongxing Technology (-9.26%) [4][14]. Industry News and Key Company Announcements - The report notes a significant increase in inbound travel to China, with 610 million entries and exits recorded in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 43.9% [16][18]. - The Ministry of Commerce has announced measures to stimulate cultural and tourism consumption, which may positively impact the consumer sector [16][19]. - Companies like Yiyi Co. and Zhongchong Co. are expected to see substantial profit growth in 2024, with Yiyi Co. projecting a net profit increase of 91.76%-117.91% [4][22].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a negative outlook for the Chinese economy, with expectations of continued deflation and a projected GDP deflator index of -0.2% in 2025, marking the longest deflationary period since the 1960s [1][5]. Core Insights - The Chinese economy is currently experiencing its longest deflationary cycle since the 1960s, with predictions of negative GDP deflator indices for three consecutive years [1][2]. - Economists emphasize the urgent need for fiscal stimulus to combat deflation, with a gradual implementation expected [3]. - The real estate crisis has significantly impacted household wealth, leading to a consumption decline, despite potential boosts from exports and retail improvements [3][4]. - The GDP growth rate for 2024 is projected at 4.9%, driven by government stimulus, but industrial output may outpace retail recovery due to ongoing demand-supply imbalances [4]. - The report highlights a structural issue where many companies maintain or expand production despite low or negative profitability, which is unlikely to change soon [4]. Summary by Sections Economic Outlook - The GDP deflator index is expected to remain negative for the seventh consecutive quarter, matching records from the late 1990s [5]. - Predictions for the GDP deflator index show a gradual recovery, reaching 0.9% in 2026 and 1.4% in 2027 [5]. Impact of Deflation - Negative GDP deflator indices and weak nominal GDP growth are anticipated to directly harm corporate profits and fiscal revenues, leading to broader economic damage [6]. - Long-term deflation poses risks to business and consumer behavior, potentially leading to reduced spending and a vicious cycle of economic decline [8]. Sector-Specific Insights - The housing and manufacturing sectors are currently under the most deflationary pressure, while service sectors like hospitality are showing price resilience [10]. - Weak domestic demand is expected to hinder any significant price recovery, even if some weaker industry players exit the market [11].

Macroeconomic Overview - The market experienced a decline with a weekly average transaction volume of 1,142.1 billion CNY, down 192.6 billion CNY from the previous week[10] - December CPI increased by 0.1% year-on-year, matching expectations, while PPI decreased by 2.3%, also in line with forecasts[11] - Core CPI showed a slight upward trend for three consecutive months, indicating marginally positive signals despite ongoing food price pressures[12] Policy and Market Reactions - The central bank announced a pause in government bond purchases, leading to delayed expectations for monetary easing due to recent RMB depreciation[10] - The U.S. non-farm payroll data for December exceeded expectations, with an increase of 256,000 jobs, leading to a reduction in the anticipated timeline for Fed rate cuts[18] - Market expectations for Fed rate cuts have shifted to after June 2025, with the total number of cuts for the year reduced to less than two[19] Investment and Economic Indicators - The fiscal policy for 2025 includes subsidies for digital products, with limits set on individual item prices and subsidy amounts, which did not exceed market expectations overall[10] - The bond market saw rising yields, particularly in the short end, influenced by regulatory concerns and the central bank's actions[10] - Key upcoming data to watch includes China's December financial data, trade figures, and Q4 GDP, which are critical for assessing economic recovery[21]

流感监测周报 目 录 CONTENTS 01 02 04 08 10 11 12 摘要 一、流感样病例报告 二、病原学监测 三、暴发疫情 四、人感染动物源性流感病毒疫情 五、动物禽流感疫情 六、其他国家 / 地区流感监测情况 第 837 期 中国流感流行情况概要（截至 2024 年 12 月 29 日） ·监测数据显示，本周南、北方省份流感病毒检测阳性率继续上升。以 A(H1N1)pdm09 亚型为主。 全国共报告 171 起流感样病例暴发疫情。 ·2024 年 4 月 1 日－2024 年 12 月 29 日（以实验日期统计），A(H1N1)pdm09 亚型流感病毒 1844 株 （ 97.0% ） 为 A/Victoria/4897/2022 的 类 似 株 ； A(H3N2) 亚 型 流 感 病 毒 392 株 （ 56.0% ） 为 A/Thailand/8/2022（鸡胚株）的类似株；453 株（64.7%）为 A/Thailand/8/2022（细胞株）的类似株； B(Victoria)系 997 株（99.1%）为 B/Austria/1359417/2021 的类似株。 ·2024 年 4 月 ...

宏观 [Table_Author] 分析师：陈江月 执业证书：S1030520060001 电话：0755-83199599-9055 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 01 月 06 日 邮箱：chenjy@csco.com.cn 公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格 证券研究报告 12 月非制造业 PMI 明显反弹 [Table_ReportType] 宏观周报（1 月第 1 周） [Table_Report] [Table_BaseData] 经济预测（一致预期） 单位（%） 2409E 24E GDP（Q3E） CPI PPI 工业增加值增速 固定投资增速 社消增速 出口增速 进口增速 M2 增速 社融增速 数据来源：万得资讯 [Table_S 核心观点： ummary] 请务必阅读文后重要声明及免责条款 [Table_Industry] [Table_Title] 1) 权益：上周市场缩量下跌。市场方面，年底及跨年后货币适 度宽松仍未兑现，压制指数弹性；小盘股在退市新规避险、两 融杠杆余额见顶回落避险下继续调整。基本面方面，12 月 PMI 回落 0.2 个百分点，符合淡季特征，属于季节性 ...

[Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 1 月 6 日 [T分析师： able_Author 赵晓闯] 执业证书号：S1030511010004 电话：0755-83199599 邮箱：zhaoxc@csco.com.cn 分析师：杨贵洲 执业证书号：S1030524060001 电话：0755-83199599 邮箱：yanggz1@csco.com.cn 研究助理：董李延楠 电话：0755-83199599 邮箱：donglyn@csco.com.cn 公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格 证券研究报告 装备制造 [Table_Title] 轨交设备受益于国铁招标节奏加快 [Table_ReportType]装备制造行业周报（1 月第 1 周） [Table_S 市场行情回顾 ummary] ： 本周 4 个交易日机械设备、电力设备及汽车行业指数涨跌幅 分别为-8.18%、-6.64%及-7.45%，在 31 个申万一级行业中排 名分别为第 23、16、19 位；同期沪深 300 涨跌幅为-5.17%。 行业观点： 请务必阅读文后重要声明及免责条款 [Table_Industry] [Table_Re ...