大消费 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 4 月 7 日 [T分析师able_A：uthor 罗鹏 ] 执业证书号：S1030523040001 电话：0755-23602217 邮箱：luopeng@csco.com.cn 研究助理：赵靖 电话：0755-23602217 邮箱：zhaojing2@csco.com.cn 关税超预期，预计内需政策刺激加大 [Table_ReportType] 大消费行业周报（4 月第 1 周） [Table_Summary] 行业观点： 请务必阅读文后重要声明及免责条款 [Table_Industry] [Table_Title] [Table_Report] [Table_BaseData] 计算机 2019 年 Q3 综合毛利率（%） 9.7 综合净利率（%） 6.9 行业 ROE（%） 25.6 行业 ROA（%） 5.2 利润增长率（%） 4.21 资产负债率（%） 149 期间费用率（%） 4.54 存货周转率（%） 42.56 公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格 证券研究报告 讯 1) 清明节前四个交易日（3/31-4/3）大消费板块表现分化。社会服 ...

Macro Overview - The market experienced a significant decline with the Shanghai Composite Index down by 0.28% and the Shenzhen Component down by 2.28%[9] - March PMI data indicates a weak recovery, with the manufacturing PMI at 50.5, slightly up from 50.2, while the non-manufacturing PMI rose to 50.8, reflecting a modest expansion[10] - The recent "reciprocal tariffs" imposed by the U.S. exceeded market expectations, leading to increased market volatility and a decline in risk appetite globally[14][20] Economic Impact - The U.S. has implemented a 10% baseline tariff effective April 5, with higher tariffs on specific trade partners starting April 9, impacting global economic forecasts[18] - The tariffs are expected to act as a fiscal tightening measure, increasing costs for businesses and consumers, which may slow economic growth and elevate stagflation pressures[20] - China's response includes a 34% tariff on U.S. imports, raising the overall tariff burden to over 60% for certain goods, which could further strain domestic demand and investment[22] Market Reactions - U.S. stock indices fell sharply, with the Dow Jones down 7.82% and the S&P 500 down 9.08% following the tariff announcements[9] - The yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds decreased, reflecting a shift in economic expectations due to the tariffs, with a notable drop in the 2-year yield as well[9][22] - The dollar index fell by 1.07%, while the offshore RMB depreciated, indicating a flight to safety amid rising economic uncertainty[9][22]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the medical device sector, but it highlights positive developments and opportunities for investment in high-end medical devices and domestic medical equipment companies. Core Insights - The medical and biological sector saw a weekly increase of 1.2%, outperforming the Wind All A index (-1.17%) and the CSI 300 index (-1.37%) during the week of March 31 to April 3, 2025. Key performers included offline pharmacies (4.15%), chemical preparations (3.92%), and medical consumables (1.66%) [2][7]. - A new policy from the National Medical Products Administration aims to support innovation in high-end medical devices, including surgical robots and AI medical devices, through ten key measures that enhance the regulatory framework and promote international standards [2][12]. - The acceleration of centralized procurement for large medical devices in regions like Guangxi is expected to benefit domestic medical equipment companies, allowing them to capture a larger market share as the industry recovers [2][12]. Market Weekly Review - The medical and biological sector increased by 1.2%, with offline pharmacies leading the gains at 4.15%, followed by chemical preparations at 3.92% and medical consumables at 1.66%. Conversely, medical research outsourcing (-3.19%), medical devices (-1.48%), and hospitals (-0.15%) experienced declines [2][7]. - The top three gaining stocks were Duorui Pharmaceutical (56.3%), Weisi Medical (31.8%), and Hasanlian (31.3%), while the largest declines were seen in Dongfang Biological (-11.1%), Dongfang Ocean (-9.2%), and Nengte Technology (-9.1%) [2][10]. Industry News and Key Company Announcements - The National Medical Products Administration is seeking opinions on measures to optimize lifecycle regulation for high-end medical devices, which includes support for innovation and the application of new technologies in healthcare [2][12]. - Guangxi's public resource trading center announced the initiation of centralized procurement for large medical devices for 2025, encouraging participation from both government and non-government medical institutions [2][12]. - Amgen announced FDA approval for a new indication of its CD19 antibody Inebilizumab, targeting a rare autoimmune disease with a patient population of approximately 20,000 to 40,000 in the U.S. and EU [2][12].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the medical device sector, but it highlights positive developments and opportunities within the industry. Core Insights - The medical and biological sector saw a weekly increase of 1.2%, outperforming the Wind All A index (-1.17%) and the CSI 300 index (-1.37%) during the week of March 31 to April 3, 2025 [2][7]. - High-end medical devices are expected to benefit from favorable policies, including a draft proposal from the National Medical Products Administration aimed at optimizing lifecycle regulation and supporting innovation in high-end medical devices such as surgical robots and AI medical devices [2][12]. - The acceleration of centralized procurement for large medical equipment is likely to enhance the market share of domestic medical device companies, as multiple regions, including Guangxi, have initiated procurement processes for 2025 [2][12]. Market Weekly Review - The medical and biological sector rose by 1.2%, with offline pharmacies (4.15%), chemical preparations (3.92%), and medical consumables (1.66%) leading the gains, while medical research outsourcing (-3.19%), medical devices (-1.48%), and hospitals (-0.15%) faced declines [2][7]. - The top three gaining stocks were Duorui Pharmaceutical (56.3%), Weisi Medical (31.8%), and Hasanlian (31.3%), while the top three decliners were Dongfang Biology (-11.1%), Dongfang Ocean (-9.2%), and Nengte Technology (-9.1%) [2][10]. Industry News and Key Company Announcements - The National Medical Products Administration is seeking opinions on measures to support the innovation of high-end medical devices, which includes ten key initiatives aimed at enhancing the regulatory framework [2][12]. - Guangxi Public Resources Trading Center announced the initiation of centralized procurement for large medical devices for 2025, encouraging both government and non-government entities to participate [2][12]. - Amgen announced FDA approval for a new indication of its CD19 antibody Inebilizumab, marking a significant development in the treatment of IgG4-related disease [2][12]. - Pfizer registered a Phase III clinical trial for its recombinant RSV vaccine in China, aiming to compare immunogenicity and safety between Chinese and American populations [2][12].

大消费 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 4 月 7 日 [T分析师able_A：uthor 罗鹏 ] 执业证书号：S1030523040001 电话：0755-23602217 邮箱：luopeng@csco.com.cn 公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格 证券研究报告 关税超预期，预计内需政策刺激加大 [Table_ReportType] 大消费行业周报（4 月第 1 周） [Table_Summary] 行业观点： 请务必阅读文后重要声明及免责条款 [Table_Industry] 研究助理：赵靖 电话：0755-23602217 邮箱：zhaojing2@csco.com.cn [Table_Title] [Table_Report] [Table_BaseData] 计算机 2019 年 Q3 综合毛利率（%） 9.7 综合净利率（%） 6.9 行业 ROE（%） 25.6 行业 ROA（%） 5.2 利润增长率（%） 4.21 资产负债率（%） 149 期间费用率（%） 4.54 存货周转率（%） 42.56 讯 1) 清明节前四个交易日（3/31-4/3）大消费板块表现分化。社会服 ...

宏观 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 04 月 07 日 [Table_Author] 分析师：陈江月 执业证书：S1030520060001 电话：0755-83199599-9055 邮箱：chenjy@csco.com.cn 公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格 证券研究报告 "对等关税"超预期放大市场波动 [Table_ReportType] 宏观周报（4 月第 1 周） [Table_S 核心观点： ummary] 请务必阅读文后重要声明及免责条款 5) 风险提示：基本面恢复不及预期、贸易摩擦超预期升级。 [Table_Industry] [Table_Title] [Table_Report] [Table_BaseData] 经济预测（一致预期） 单位（%） 2409E 24E GDP（Q3E） CPI PPI 工业增加值增速 固定投资增速 社消增速 出口增速 进口增速 M2 增速 社融增速 数据来源：万得资讯 1) 权益：上周市场缩量下跌。市场方面，市场波动率持续处于 下行通道，沪深两市成交量连续回落，上涨弹性受到抑制的同 时，市场在面对超预期关税等利空冲击时跌幅也有限。基本 面方 ...

执业证书：S1030520060001 电话：0755-83199599-9055 邮箱：chenjy@csco.com.cn 公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格 证券研究报告 1-2 月工业企业利润稳健回升 宏观 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 03 月 31 日 [Table_Author] 分析师：陈江月 1) 权益：上周市场缩量下跌。市场方面，监管趋严，叠加 财报季临近，加速题材股退潮，小盘股调整。基本面方面， 1-2 月规模以上工业企业营收与利润增速稳健回升，但价格拖 累下中枢仍低。结构上，有色金属链、"两新"政策相关板块 表现较好，建筑产业链表现较差。产成品库存从去年 8 月回落 以来再度回升，补库趋势待验证；企业负债意愿小幅上行。 海外方面，美国将在 4 月 3 日开始对所有未在美国制造的汽 车加征永久性 25%的关税，从高频出口运价数据来看，关税冲 击在 3 月或已有所显现，且当前内需表现虽然不弱，但仍然有 所分化，新的关税冲击对基本面预期产生压力。 请务必阅读文后重要声明及免责条款 [Table_Industry] [Table_Title] [Table_Report] [T ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry [30]. Core Insights - The TMT sector experienced a decline in the week from March 24 to March 28, with the overall sector underperforming the CSI 300 index. The media sector fell by 1.39%, electronics by 2.07%, communications by 3.87%, and computers by 4.89%. Notably, the education publishing and electronic chemicals sub-industries saw gains of 2.65% and 2.43%, respectively, while communication engineering and services dropped by 8.41% [3][11]. - Recent updates from leading AI models, including DeepSeek, Google, and OpenAI, indicate significant advancements in model capabilities. DeepSeek's new version V3-0324 shows improvements in reasoning tasks and cost control, while Google's Gemini 2.5 Pro leads in various benchmarks. OpenAI's GPT-4o introduces new features for image output and multi-turn dialogue, suggesting a competitive landscape that fosters investment opportunities in AI applications [3][16][18]. - The report highlights a growing investment opportunity in AI-related fields such as AI office, AI education, and AI gaming, driven by the narrowing performance gap between domestic and international AI models [3][16]. Market Weekly Review - The TMT sector's performance from March 24 to March 28 showed a decline across major industries, with specific stocks like 泰凌微 and 读客文化 demonstrating significant weekly gains of 25.48% and 21.60%, respectively [3][10][12][13]. - The report provides detailed weekly performance metrics for various sub-industries within the TMT sector, indicating a mixed performance landscape with notable winners and losers [3][11][12][13]. Industry News and Key Company Announcements - Key events in the industry include the release of new AI models and significant corporate announcements, such as OpenAI's expected revenue growth and Google's introduction of advanced AI capabilities [16][18][19]. - The report notes various corporate earnings announcements, with companies like 生益电子 and 中芯国际 reporting substantial year-on-year profit changes, reflecting the dynamic nature of the industry [25][26].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry, but it indicates a positive outlook for specific sectors such as engineering machinery and humanoid robots, suggesting potential investment opportunities [1]. Core Insights - The engineering machinery sector in China shows continued improvement, with the market index reaching 128.56 in March 2025, a year-on-year increase of 18.28% and a month-on-month increase of 20.51% [3]. - The humanoid robot market is expected to grow as component costs decrease, with a significant presence of component manufacturers at the recent ITES exhibition in Shenzhen [3]. - The photovoltaic sector is experiencing growth in inverter exports, particularly to Asian markets, with a total export value of 7.632 billion yuan in January-February 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth rate of 5.97% [3]. Market Overview - The mechanical equipment, power equipment, and automotive industry indices experienced declines of -3.49%, -1.70%, and -1.03% respectively during the week of March 24-28, 2025, ranking 12th, 17th, and 10th among 31 Shenwan primary industries [1][8]. - The top-performing sub-sectors included commercial vehicles and passenger vehicles, while wind power equipment and automotive services saw significant declines [10]. Industry Data - The engineering machinery market index indicates a strong recovery, with a notable increase in excavator operating hours by 14.94% year-on-year in March 2025 [3]. - The humanoid robot sector is poised for growth, driven by advancements in component manufacturing and cost reductions [3]. - The photovoltaic inverter export market is bolstered by demand from countries like India and Pakistan, as well as large-scale projects in Saudi Arabia and the UAE [3].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry [2]. Core Views - The report highlights the growth in the domestic engineering machinery market, with the China Machinery Index (CMI) reaching 128.56 in March 2025, a year-on-year increase of 18.28% and a month-on-month increase of 20.51%, indicating a sustained upward trend in market sentiment [3]. - The humanoid robot sector is expected to grow as component costs decrease, with a significant number of component manufacturers participating in the recent ITES exhibition, suggesting a positive development trend for the supply chain [3]. - The photovoltaic sector is experiencing growth in inverter exports, with a total export value of 7.632 billion yuan in January-February 2025, a year-on-year increase of 5.97%. The Asian market, particularly India and Pakistan, is driving demand due to unstable power grids [3]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - From March 24 to March 28, 2025, the indices for mechanical equipment, electric power equipment, and automotive industries decreased by 3.49%, 1.70%, and 1.03%, respectively, ranking 12th, 17th, and 10th among 31 Shenwan primary industries [8][10]. Industry Insights 1. **Engineering Machinery**: The domestic market is showing signs of recovery, with a notable increase in excavator operating hours by 14.94% year-on-year in March 2025, indicating a positive construction activity trend [3]. 2. **Humanoid Robots**: The ITES exhibition showcased over 600 companies, indicating a robust interest in automation and robotics, with a focus on reducing component costs to accelerate commercialization [3]. 3. **Photovoltaics**: The report notes a significant increase in inverter exports to Asia, with January exports reaching 1.679 billion yuan (up 35.05% year-on-year) and February exports at 1.195 billion yuan (up 25.10% year-on-year) [3]. Company Announcements - **Chuaneng Power** announced plans to invest in a 300MW photovoltaic project in Aba, with a total investment not exceeding 1.395 billion yuan [17]. - **Wolde** is expanding its market for ball screw processing tools, with some revenue expected in 2024 [17]. - **Zhongji Group** reported a 39.01% increase in revenue for 2024, reaching approximately 177.664 billion yuan, with a significant rise in container manufacturing and marine engineering orders [18].