Industry Rating - The industry rating is maintained at "Outperform" [1] Core Viewpoints - The liquor industry is currently in a deep adjustment phase, influenced by economic and policy pressures, with five major changes observed [2] - The industry is transitioning towards a "quality-price ratio" competition phase, with leading companies already positioning themselves for this shift [2] - Despite being in a weak performance phase, the sector shows characteristics of low valuation, low expectations, low holdings, and high dividends, making leading liquor companies attractive investment opportunities [3] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Background - The liquor industry is facing dual pressures from economic conditions and policy changes, accelerating its decline [7] - The introduction of the "Strict Economy and Anti-Waste Regulations" has further impacted consumption scenarios, particularly in high-end group purchases [7][9] - The industry is expected to undergo a supply-side adjustment, with companies lowering their growth targets to alleviate channel pressures [13] 2. Supply Side - Leading liquor companies have initiated a "control supply" trend to rebalance supply and demand, which may stabilize prices [18] - Companies like Wuliangye and Luzhou Laojiao have implemented supply control policies to manage inventory levels [19] 3. Demand Side - Companies are innovating to meet changing consumer preferences, focusing on quality-price ratio products and low-alcohol options to attract younger consumers [20] - The establishment of manufacturer platforms and embracing online channels are strategies being adopted to enhance sales and manage distribution [26] 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on strong brands with resilient demand and attractive dividend returns, such as Kweichow Moutai and Wuliangye [55] - The potential for earnings per share (EPS) recovery is anticipated in the second quarter of 2026, making it a favorable time to invest [55]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 4.62, based on a 10x PE valuation for 2026 [5]. Core Insights - The company, Honghua Smart Energy, is a leading urban gas company under China Gas Holdings, focusing on providing integrated clean energy solutions and expanding into renewable energy systems [1][12]. - The company has shown significant revenue growth, with a CAGR of 13.5% from HKD 12.85 billion in 2020 to HKD 21.31 billion in 2024, and a core profit increase of 34.5% to HKD 1.601 billion in 2024 [2][23]. - The urban gas industry is experiencing a slowdown in gas sales growth, but the gross margin is expected to improve due to a decrease in international gas prices [3][59]. - The renewable energy segment has rapidly expanded, with net profits from this sector reaching HKD 4.79 billion in 2024, a fivefold increase from the previous year [4][19]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Honghua Smart Energy is committed to providing one-stop clean energy solutions, operating urban pipeline gas and expanding into renewable energy systems, including digital energy management and carbon management services [1][12]. Revenue and Profitability - The company’s revenue has grown significantly, with a projected core profit of HKD 1.606 billion in 2024, marking a 34.5% increase [2][23]. - The main revenue source is pipeline natural gas sales, accounting for 80% of total revenue in 2024, while renewable energy revenue has increased from 5.3% in 2023 to 8.7% in 2024 [25][27]. Industry Trends - The urban gas industry is seeing a general slowdown in gas sales growth, with the company’s sales volume expected to reach 17.201 billion cubic meters in 2024, a 4.5% increase [3][71]. - The gross margin for the urban gas industry is improving, with the company’s procurement costs decreasing due to lower international gas prices [59][60]. Renewable Energy Development - The company has invested in over 1,000 renewable energy projects across 24 provinces, with a cumulative installed capacity of 2.3 GW in distributed solar power by the end of 2024 [4][19]. - The renewable energy business has turned profitable, achieving a net profit of HKD 0.78 billion in 2023 and projected to reach HKD 4.79 billion in 2024 [4][19]. Financial Forecast and Valuation - The forecasted net profits for the company are HKD 1.625 billion, HKD 1.680 billion, and HKD 1.734 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with an EPS of HKD 0.45, HKD 0.46, and HKD 0.48 [5][19].

固定收益 | 固定收益点评 7 月 FOMC：降息预期继续推迟 证券研究报告 7 月美联储议息会议点评 7 月 FOMC：会议声明偏鸽，鲍威尔依旧谨慎 7 月美联储议息会议将联邦基金目标利率维持在 4.25%-4.5%的区间，符合市 场预期，是去年 12 月降息之后，连续第 5 次按兵不动。 会议声明：偏鸽派，指出经济放缓风险。会议声明删除了"经济活动持续 稳健扩张"，改为"上半年经济活动增长有所放缓"；删除了"经济前景的 不确定性有所减弱"；反映出相比于 6 月，委员会对经济前景的担忧上升。 美联储主席鲍威尔表态：温和鹰派。一方面，对 9 月降息保持谨慎，表示 尚未就 9 月利率做出任何决定，无法在下次会议上依据 6 月的点阵图（即 今年一共降息 50 bp）来做决策。 另一方面，强调对通胀担忧，表示商品通胀正在上升，关税正在推高一些 商品价格，核心通胀中有 30%或 40%来自关税，合理的基本预期是关税对通 胀造成短期影响。 降息预期推迟，9 月降息的概率跌破 50%。根据美联储观察工具，FOMC 会议结束后，市场预期 9 月维持利率不变的概率升至 54.8%（1 天前为 35.4%）；预期年内只有 1 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price not specified [6]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 1.368 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 11.88%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 305 million yuan, up 12.24% year-on-year [1]. - The company has a strong order backlog, with new orders signed in the first half of 2025 amounting to 1.627 billion yuan, a growth of 8.31% year-on-year, and a total contract backlog of 3.956 billion yuan, up 12.63% year-on-year [3]. - The company is actively expanding its overseas business, with foreign revenue reaching 283 million yuan, accounting for 20.82% of total revenue, and showing a year-on-year increase of 25.75% [2]. - The company has successfully launched 36 new products and solutions, generating 642 million yuan in revenue, which constitutes 47% of total revenue, leveraging AI technology in its offerings [4]. - The company emphasizes shareholder returns, having completed a cash dividend of 5.2 yuan per 10 shares, totaling 250 million yuan, and has committed to maintaining a 40% dividend payout ratio over the next five years [5]. Financial Performance - The company achieved a net cash flow from operating activities of 178 million yuan in the first half of 2025, an improvement of 11.12% year-on-year [3]. - The company's net asset return rate stood at 9.18%, with a debt-to-asset ratio of 34.83% [3]. - The projected net profit for the years 2025 to 2027 is estimated at 767 million yuan, 931 million yuan, and 1.124 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 22, 18, and 15 times [6].

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Outperform the Market (maintained rating) [6] Core Insights - The report emphasizes the implementation of policies to control production capacity and reduce the number of breeding sows, aiming for high-quality development in the pig farming industry. This includes reducing the weight of pigs at slaughter and controlling new production capacity to stabilize profits [2][3]. - The report expresses a bearish outlook on recent farming profits due to high inventory levels and low demand, predicting a significant probability of unexpected price declines for pigs. The current average slaughter weight is 128.83 kg, which is among the lowest since 2021, indicating a potential oversupply situation [3]. - The report highlights potential investment opportunities in the sector, suggesting that the industry may enter a new phase of de-stocking, which could lead to a recovery in profit expectations for pig farming companies. Key companies to watch include leading firms such as Wens Foodstuff Group and Muyuan Foods, along with other flexible targets like Shennong Group and Dekang Agriculture [4]. Summary by Sections - **Policy Implementation**: The meeting on July 23 emphasized strict control over new production capacity and a reduction in the number of breeding sows to address the current high production levels and price volatility in the pig farming industry [2]. - **Profit Outlook**: The report indicates that the high inventory and low demand environment could lead to a significant drop in pig prices, with the current slaughter weight being notably high. The report also notes rising feed costs due to a rebound in corn prices and increased disease interference [3]. - **Investment Opportunities**: The report suggests that the combination of price declines and policy-driven reductions in sow numbers may lead to a new de-stocking cycle, presenting potential recovery in profitability for key players in the industry [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4][7]. Core Insights - The company has successfully commercialized three key drugs and is on the verge of launching a recombinant human thyroid-stimulating hormone [1][15]. - ZG006, a CD3/DLL3/DLL3 tri-antibody, is in Phase 2 clinical trials and is expected to be the first of its kind to enter Phase 3 trials globally [2][41]. - ZG005, a PD-1/TIGIT dual antibody, shows promising clinical trial results for cervical cancer and is actively expanding into multiple indications [3][31]. Financial Projections - Revenue forecasts for 2025 to 2027 are projected at 820 million, 1.201 billion, and 1.603 billion RMB, respectively, with net profits expected to be -20 million, 121 million, and 282 million RMB [4][6]. - The company is expected to achieve significant revenue growth rates, with a projected increase of 53.81% in 2025 [6]. Key Products Overview - The company has launched three key products: - Tofacitinib tablets for advanced liver cancer and radioiodine-refractory differentiated thyroid cancer, which are included in the national medical insurance directory [17][18]. - Recombinant human thrombin for hemostasis, which has shown clear clinical efficacy [21][30]. - JAK inhibitor JAK2 for myelofibrosis, which has been approved for market and is expanding into other indications [31][33]. Clinical Development Highlights - ZG006 has demonstrated significant anti-tumor activity and safety in small cell lung cancer patients during clinical trials [2][40]. - ZG005 has shown a 40.9% objective response rate in cervical cancer patients who had not previously received immune checkpoint inhibitors [3][34]. Market Potential - The market for recombinant human thrombin is expected to grow alongside the increasing number of surgical procedures in China, projected to reach 12.83 million by 2030 [21][25]. - The myelofibrosis drug market is anticipated to grow significantly, with the market size expected to reach 2.93 billion RMB by 2025 [31][32].

Group 1: Macro Policy Insights - The Central Political Bureau meeting on July 30 emphasized the need for continuous and stable macro policies to support high-quality development in the context of the 15th Five-Year Plan preparation [1][20][22] - The meeting highlighted the importance of domestic demand as a key driver, with the introduction of a parenting subsidy program amounting to approximately 90 billion yuan, marking a significant direct cash subsidy to the public [1][21] - The meeting also indicated a shift in focus towards urban renewal as a new policy goal, alongside enhancing the attractiveness and inclusivity of the domestic capital market [1][22] Group 2: Credit Market Analysis - The credit market is expected to experience a stable supply in the second half of the year, with favorable liquidity conditions supporting the bond market [2][24][25] - There is a discussion around the potential risks of credit spread compression, with a focus on the need for liquidity management and position adjustments [2][25] - The credit market has shown resilience, with limited widening of credit spreads despite recent market adjustments, suggesting a cautious outlook for the third quarter [2][25] Group 3: Chemical Industry Developments - Recent policies aimed at addressing "involution" in the chemical industry include stricter cost regulation and adjustments to pricing mechanisms, indicating a shift towards more sustainable competition [3][28] - The analysis of various sub-sectors within the chemical industry suggests that those with high concentration and significant losses are more likely to be targeted for policy interventions [3][28][29] - Key sub-sectors identified for potential breakthroughs include soda ash, polyurethane, and organic silicon, which meet multiple criteria for policy focus [3][29] Group 4: Food and Beverage Sector Insights - The recent listing of Jiyuan Group, a leading supplier of HMB raw materials, highlights the growth potential in the muscle health market, driven by increasing demand from aging populations [30][31] - The company is projected to achieve a revenue growth of 12.3% in 2024, with a significant portion of its income derived from overseas markets [30][31] - The focus on innovative nutritional products positions the company well within the expanding sports nutrition and joint health segments [30][33]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report emphasizes the need for continuous and stable macroeconomic policies to support high-quality development in China, particularly in preparation for the 15th Five-Year Plan [1][4] - The report highlights the importance of effective domestic demand stimulation, with a focus on consumer spending and investment in public services, including a notable budget allocation of approximately 90 billion yuan for a new childcare subsidy program [2][3] - The integration of domestic and foreign trade is underscored, with a call for high-level openness and support for foreign trade and investment, particularly in light of recent US-China trade discussions [3][4] Group 2 - The report indicates a shift in focus towards urban renewal as a new policy goal, alongside measures to stabilize the real estate market and enhance the attractiveness of the domestic capital market [3][4] - The necessity for deepening reforms is reiterated, with an emphasis on fostering technological innovation and developing new competitive industries to enhance economic resilience [4][6] - The report outlines the performance of various provinces in terms of GDP growth, noting that several regions have exceeded their growth targets for the first half of 2025, indicating a positive economic trend [7]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is Neutral (maintained rating) [5] Core Insights - The report emphasizes the need for a multi-dimensional approach to address "involution" in the chemical industry, focusing on supply, demand, and government collaboration [1][3][25] - Recent policies from various government bodies aim to regulate costs, manage carbon emissions, and eliminate outdated production methods to combat "involution" [2][43] - The report identifies high concentration and deep losses in specific sub-industries as key areas for intervention, suggesting that these sectors may be more amenable to achieving "anti-involution" goals [3][4] Summary by Sections Section 1: Addressing "Involution" in Competition - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) has released guidelines to address the causes of "involution" and proposed measures for local governments and enterprises [1][12] - The report highlights the importance of establishing product standards and improving the efficiency of accounts receivable collection to mitigate "involution" [26][32] Section 2: Recent Policy Developments - Recent updates to the Price Law and other regulations aim to strengthen cost supervision and adjust pricing mechanisms to combat "involution" [2][39] - The NDRC has introduced a new framework for energy efficiency reviews and carbon emission evaluations for fixed asset investment projects, targeting high-energy-consuming projects [43][46] Section 3: Multi-Dimensional Analysis of Chemical Sub-Industries - The report analyzes 127 chemical sub-industries based on capacity, concentration, and profitability, identifying those with high loss levels and concentration as potential targets for "anti-involution" measures [4][11] - Specific industries such as soda ash, polyurethane, and organic silicon are highlighted as areas of interest due to their alignment with the identified criteria [4][29] Section 4: Recommendations for Industry Improvement - The report suggests enhancing industry self-regulation, increasing innovation, and establishing standards to facilitate the orderly exit of outdated capacities [36][34] - It emphasizes the need for a coordinated approach between industry policies and competition policies to ensure sustainable development [24][38]

Investment Rating - Industry rating is "Outperform the Market" (maintained rating) [5] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that the company is the largest global supplier of HMB and focuses on the muscle and joint health market, with a strong presence in various international markets [1][4] - The company is expected to achieve a revenue growth of 12.3% year-on-year in 2024, reaching 1 billion yuan, with a net profit growth of 9.0% to 170 million yuan [2] - The report emphasizes the high growth potential in the muscle health and aging economy sectors, driven by the increasing demand for HMB and joint health products [4] Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company is the largest global supplier of HMB and a core supplier of high-quality glucosamine and chondroitin sulfate, with established partnerships with major brands like Abbott and Blackmores [1] - The company has a significant international revenue share, with over 90% of its income coming from overseas sales [2] Product Performance - In 2024, the revenue from nutritional raw materials and formulations is expected to be 650 million yuan and 350 million yuan, respectively, accounting for 65% and 35% of total revenue [2] - The gross profit margins for HMB, glucosamine, and chondroitin sulfate are projected to be 62%, 39%, and 29%, respectively [2] Market Trends - The global HMB market is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 11.54% from 2024 to 2030, with an expected production of 3,571.69 tons by 2030 [3] - The report notes that the demand for glucosamine and chondroitin sulfate is also on the rise, with a CAGR of 4.2% and 3.5% expected for the respective markets from 2022 to 2027 and 2023 to 2030 [3]