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继续看好中西部基建及重点产业投资,关注后续实物工作量落地
Tianfeng Securities· 2025-05-25 04:43
Investment Rating - Industry rating is maintained as "Outperform the Market" [5] Core Viewpoints - Continued optimism for infrastructure investment in central and western regions, with a focus on the subsequent realization of physical workload [1][13] - Infrastructure investment remains a key focus for future policy efforts, with significant growth in narrow and broad infrastructure investments offsetting declines in real estate [2][13] - The construction sector is expected to benefit from improved physical workload conversion due to rising orders from central and state-owned enterprises [3][18] Summary by Sections Infrastructure Investment - In the first four months of 2025, national fixed asset investment increased by 4% year-on-year, with real estate development down by 10.3%, narrow infrastructure up by 5.8%, broad infrastructure up by 10.9%, and manufacturing up by 8.8% [2][13] - Narrow infrastructure growth outpaced overall investment growth by 1.8%, contributing 32.6% to total investment growth, an increase of 2.3 percentage points from Q1 [2][13] - Significant regional investment growth was observed in Beijing (+21.2%), Inner Mongolia (+18.8%), Xinjiang (+17.2%), and Tibet (+16.5%) [14][17] Market Performance - The construction index fell by 1.11% from May 19 to May 23, underperforming the CSI 300 index, which decreased by 0.07% [4][22] - Notable stock performances included Palm Holdings (+31.82%), ST Lingnan (+27.61%), and Zhengzhong Design (+22.78%) [4][22] Investment Recommendations - Focus on cyclical opportunities arising from improvements in physical workload, particularly in water conservancy, railways, and aviation sectors [26] - Recommendations include regional state-owned enterprises with high growth potential such as Sichuan Road and Bridge, Zhejiang Communications, and Anhui Construction [26][27] - Emphasis on emerging business directions such as AI-driven computing power and cleanroom sectors, with specific recommendations for companies like Hainan Huatie and Baicheng [28][29]
首程控股携手中国人寿设百亿REITs投资基金
Tianfeng Securities· 2025-05-25 04:12
周观 REITs 首程控股携手中国人寿设百亿 REITs 投资基金 策略报告 | 投资策略 首程控股携手中国人寿设百亿 REITs 投资 基金 风险提示:REITs 基础资产项目未来经营情况具有不确定性;募集说明书中测 算的未来现金流可能无法准确反映实际情况;募集发行进度不及预期。 市场表现方面,本周 REITs 市场上行,华泰苏州恒泰租赁住房 REIT(+52.82%) 领涨 国寿投资公司与首程控股有限公司、财信吉祥人寿保险股份有限公司在京签 署北京平准基础设施不动产股权投资基金协议,目标规模 100 亿元,首期规 模超 50 亿元,是目前市场单只规模最大的公募 REITs 投资基金。 证券研究报告 2025 年 05 月 25 日 作者 本周(2025.5.19-2025.5.23),中证 REITs 全收益指数上涨 1.20%,REITs 总指 数上涨 1.65%,产权 REITs 指数上涨 1.53%,经营权 REITs 指数上涨 1.80%。大 类资产角度,REITs 总指数跑赢沪深 300 指数 1.82 个百分点,跑赢中证全债 指数 1.57 个百分点,跑赢南华商品指数 2.14 个百分点。个券 ...
沪深300增强本周超额基准1.13%
Tianfeng Securities· 2025-05-25 03:45
金融工程 | 金工定期报告 金融工程 证券研究报告 沪深 300 增强本周超额基准 1.13% 戴维斯双击策略 戴维斯双击即指以较低的市盈率买入具有成长潜力的股票,待成长性显现、 市盈率相应提高后卖出,获得乘数效应的收益,即 EPS 和 PE 的"双击"。 策略在 2010-2017 年回测期内实现了 26.45%的年化收益,超额基准 21.08%。 今年以来,策略累计绝对收益 14.32%,超额中证 500 指数 15.59%,本周策 略超额中证 500 指数 0.44%。本期组合于 2025-05-06 日开盘调仓,截至 2025-05-23 日,本期组合超额基准指数 3.44%。 净利润断层策略 净利润断层策略是基本面与技术面共振双击下的选股模式,其核心有两点: "净利润",指通常意义上的业绩超预期;"断层",指盈余公告后的首个交 易日股价出现向上跳空,该跳空通常代表市场对盈余报告的认可程度。 策略在 2010 年至今取得了年化 28.67%的收益,年化超额基准 27.15%。本 年组合累计绝对收益 16.76%,超额基准指 18.03%,本周超额收益 0.33%。 沪深 300 增强组合 根据对优秀基 ...
通信赋能机器人在AI浪潮下茁壮生长,产业链星辰大海
Tianfeng Securities· 2025-05-24 15:08
通信 证券研究报告 通信赋能机器人在 AI 浪潮下茁壮生长,产业链星辰大海 机器人市场规模持续扩大,25 年有望成为量产元年 随着人工智能和机器人技术的飞速进步,机器人产业正在迅速渗透多个领 域,市场空间稳步增长。根据国际机器人联合会(IFR)的数据,2024 年全 球工业机器人市场预计将达到 230 亿美元;中国市场也持续增长,2024 年 产量将突破 55 万台,同比增长 29.53%。全球人形机器人市场预计从 2023 年的 21.6 亿美元增至 2029 年的 206 亿美元,年复合增长率 57%。 海内外多领域大厂入局,机器人或成为 AI 重要落地方向 行业报告 | 行业专题研究 Figure AI、优必选、宇树科技等初创企业不断迭代产品,特斯拉、英伟达、 OpenAI、小鹏、华为等跨界巨头积极布局,2024 年人形机器人行业融资超 64 亿美元。多模态大模型赋予机器人环境理解和任务规划能力,推动其在 工业制造、医疗护理、家庭服务和仓储物流等场景加速落地。未来 5-10 年, 具身机器人有望从辅助角色到逐步承担危险、高强度任务,成为 AI 的重要 终端,开启规模化应用时代。 上游核心零部件技术突破, ...
金属与材料行业研究周报:黄金重回升势,关注权益板块配置机会
Tianfeng Securities· 2025-05-24 13:30
行业报告 | 行业研究周报 2025 年 05 月 24 日 | 投资评级 | | | --- | --- | | 行业评级 | 强于大市(维持评级) | | 上次评级 | 强于大市 | 作者 -16% -8% 0% 8% 16% 24% 32% 2024-05 2024-09 2025-01 金属与材料 沪深300 刘奕町 分析师 SAC 执业证书编号:S1110523050001 liuyiting@tfzq.com 曾先毅 分析师 SAC 执业证书编号:S1110524060002 zengxianyi@tfzq.com 胡十尹 分析师 SAC 执业证书编号:S1110525010002 hushiyin@tfzq.com 吴亚宁 联系人 wuyaning@tfzq.com 行业走势图 资料来源:聚源数据 相关报告 1 《金属与材料-行业研究周报:宏观情 绪 回 暖 ,看 好基 本 金属 向 上修 复 》 2025-05-18 2 《 金 属 与 材 料 - 行 业 深 度 研 究:24&25Q1 总结:资源端金&铜领涨, 材料端盈利大幅提升》 2025-05-13 3 《金属与材料-行业研究周报:宏观 ...
黄金重回升势,关注权益板块配置机会
Tianfeng Securities· 2025-05-24 11:12
行业报告 | 行业研究周报 2025 年 05 月 24 日 | 投资评级 | | | --- | --- | | 行业评级 | 强于大市(维持评级) | | 上次评级 | 强于大市 | 作者 刘奕町 分析师 SAC 执业证书编号:S1110523050001 liuyiting@tfzq.com 曾先毅 分析师 SAC 执业证书编号:S1110524060002 zengxianyi@tfzq.com 胡十尹 分析师 SAC 执业证书编号:S1110525010002 hushiyin@tfzq.com 吴亚宁 联系人 wuyaning@tfzq.com 行业走势图 -16% -8% 0% 8% 16% 24% 32% 2024-05 2024-09 2025-01 金属与材料 沪深300 资料来源:聚源数据 相关报告 1 《金属与材料-行业研究周报:宏观情 绪 回 暖 ,看 好基 本 金属 向 上修 复 》 2025-05-18 2 《 金 属 与 材 料 - 行 业 深 度 研 究:24&25Q1 总结:资源端金&铜领涨, 材料端盈利大幅提升》 2025-05-13 3 《金属与材料-行业研究周报:宏观 ...
时代天使:全球化布局驱动营收增长,盈利稳健攀升
Tianfeng Securities· 2025-05-24 10:15
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price not specified [6]. Core Insights - The company achieved a total revenue of 1.932 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 28.2%, and a net profit of 87.08 million yuan, up 60.88% year-on-year [1]. - The domestic market remains stable, with revenue from mainland China reaching 1.354 billion yuan, a growth of 1.76%, while international revenue surged to 579 million yuan, marking a significant increase of 298.91% [2]. - The total number of invisible orthodontic cases reached 359,400 in 2024, a growth of 46.7%, with overseas cases increasing by 326% to 141,000, accounting for 39.1% of global cases [3]. - The company is expanding its global business, operating in over 50 countries, and has plans to build a new manufacturing facility in Wisconsin, USA, to enhance local production capabilities [4]. - The company is focusing on digital transformation and quality upgrades, launching various digital tools to assist doctors and improve production efficiency [5]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported total revenue of 1.932 billion yuan, a 28.2% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 87.08 million yuan, up 60.88% [1]. - Operating cash flow was 122 million yuan, a decline of 26.69% year-on-year [1]. Market Position - The company maintains a leading position in the invisible orthodontics market in China, with stable domestic growth [2]. - The international market is a key growth driver, with overseas revenue significantly increasing [2]. Business Expansion - The number of invisible orthodontic cases grew to 359,400, with a notable increase in overseas cases [3]. - The company is enhancing its global presence and local operations, including a new manufacturing facility in the USA [4]. Innovation and Technology - The company is driving digital transformation and improving product quality through automation and digital tools [5]. - Future revenue projections for 2025-2027 are set at 2.29 billion, 2.726 billion, and 3.225 billion yuan respectively, with net profits expected to reach 88 million, 151 million, and 269 million yuan [5].
因子跟踪周报:换手率、季度sp分位数因子表现较好-20250524
Tianfeng Securities· 2025-05-24 08:04
金融工程 | 金工定期报告 金融工程 证券研究报告 因子跟踪周报:换手率、季度 sp 分位数因子表现较 好-20250524 因子 IC 跟踪 IC 方面,最近一周,1 个月日均换手率、1 个月换手率波动、1 个月非流 动性冲击等因子表现较好,Beta、1 月特异度、90 天分析师覆盖度等因子 表现较差;最近一月,小市值、1 个月非流动性冲击、1 个月反转等因子 表现较好,季度 ep、季度 roe、季度 roa 等因子表现较差;最近一年,小 市值、1 月特异度、Fama-French 三因子 1 月残差波动率等因子表现较 好,一年动量、股息率、季度 roe 等因子表现较差。 因子多头组合跟踪 多头组合方面,最近一周,1 个月非流动性冲击、1 个月日均换手率、90 天内预期调整均值等因子表现较好,Beta、业绩预告精确度、1 月特异度 等因子表现较差;最近一月,小市值、1 个月换手率与均价的相关性、1 个月日均换手率等因子表现较好,bp 三年分位数、业绩预告精确度、基 于一致预期的标准化预期外盈利等因子表现较差;最近一年,小市值、1 个月换手率波动、1 个月日均换手率等因子表现较好,90 天净上调预期占 比、9 ...
时代天使(06699):全球化布局驱动营收增长,盈利稳健攀升
Tianfeng Securities· 2025-05-24 07:58
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price not specified [6]. Core Insights - The company achieved a total revenue of 1.932 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 28.2%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 87.08 million yuan, up 60.88% year-on-year [1]. - The domestic market remains stable, with revenue from mainland China reaching 1.354 billion yuan, a growth of 1.76% year-on-year, while international markets are a significant growth driver, with overseas revenue soaring to 579 million yuan, a remarkable increase of 298.91% year-on-year [2]. - The total number of invisible orthodontic cases reached 359,400 in 2024, marking a growth of 46.7% year-on-year, with overseas cases increasing from 33,000 in 2023 to 141,000 in 2024, a growth of 326% [3]. Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - The company reported total revenue of 1.932 billion yuan in 2024, with a net profit of 87.08 million yuan, reflecting strong growth in profitability [1]. Market Performance - The domestic market remains solid, with a revenue increase of 1.76% in mainland China, while the international market has become a key growth engine, contributing to a 298.91% increase in overseas revenue [2]. Business Expansion - The number of invisible orthodontic cases grew significantly, with domestic cases increasing by 3.2% and overseas cases experiencing a dramatic rise of 326% [3]. Global Operations - The company is expanding its global presence, operating in over 50 countries, and enhancing local operations, including a new manufacturing facility in Wisconsin, USA [4]. Innovation and Digital Transformation - The company is focusing on digital tools to enhance treatment precision and is upgrading its manufacturing processes to improve efficiency and product quality [5]. Financial Forecast - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are set at 2.29 billion yuan, 2.726 billion yuan, and 3.225 billion yuan respectively, with net profits expected to reach 88 million yuan, 151 million yuan, and 269 million yuan [5].
四方股份(601126):主业稳健增长,出海及AIDC有望形成增量
Tianfeng Securities· 2025-05-24 07:51
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is upgraded to "Buy" with a target price reflecting a potential return of over 20% within the next six months [6][16]. Core Insights - The company has shown steady revenue growth, achieving a total revenue of 6.95 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-over-year increase of 20.86%. The net profit attributable to the parent company reached 715.59 million yuan, up 14.09% year-over-year [1]. - The company is expected to continue its robust growth trajectory, with revenue projections for 2025 set at 8.22 billion yuan, reflecting an 18.29% growth rate [4]. Summary by Sections Business Performance - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 6.95 billion yuan, with a net profit of 715.59 million yuan and a gross margin of 32.33%, which is a slight decrease of 2.11 percentage points year-over-year [1]. - The first quarter of 2025 saw revenue of 1.83 billion yuan, a year-over-year increase of 18.34%, and a net profit of 241 million yuan, up 33.38% year-over-year [1]. Business Segmentation - The company’s revenue from grid automation in 2024 was 3.31 billion yuan, a year-over-year increase of 13.18%, with a gross margin of 41.54% [2]. - Revenue from power plant and industrial automation reached 3.12 billion yuan, marking a 25.35% increase year-over-year, with a gross margin of 25.48% [2]. Future Outlook - The company plans to expand its core business by targeting industry users and regional distribution markets, focusing on high-quality development in renewable energy and energy storage [3]. - The company aims to enhance its international presence, particularly in Southeast Asia and Africa, by strengthening local market strategies and expanding its product offerings [3]. - The data center segment is expected to contribute to growth, with the company providing core telecommunications equipment for major domestic data center projects [3]. Financial Forecast - Revenue forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are adjusted to 8.22 billion yuan, 9.43 billion yuan, and 10.75 billion yuan, respectively, with net profit projections of 856.96 million yuan, 993.13 million yuan, and 1.15 billion yuan [4]. - The company’s valuation is projected at 16X, 13X, and 12X PE for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [4].