[投资要点： Table_Summary] 策略研究|策略快评报告 政策多措并举维护资本市场平稳运行 [Table_ReportType] ——策略快评报告 [Table_ReportDate] | [Table_Authors] 分析师: | 宫慧菁 | | --- | --- | | 执业证书编号： | S0270524010001 | | 电话： | 020-32255208 | | 邮箱： | gonghj@wlzq.com.cn | 2025 年 04 月 08 日 策 略 快 评 报 告 策 略 研 究 ⚫ 4 月 7 日，中央汇金公司发布公告表示，坚定看好中国资本 市场发展前景，充分认可当前 A 股配置价值，已再次增持 了交易型开放式指数基金(ETF)，未来将继续增持。4 月 8 日，央行新闻发言人就支持中央汇金公司稳定资本市场答 记者问，表示央行坚定支持中央汇金公司加大力度增持股 票市场指数基金，并在必要时向中央汇金公司提供充足的 再贷款支持，坚决维护资本市场平稳运行。 3220 ⚫ 国家金融监督管理总局近日印发《关于调整保险资金权益 类资产监管比例有关事项的通知》（以下简称《通知》）， 优化 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market," indicating a projected increase of over 10% relative to the market index in the next six months [4][8]. Core Insights - The reports highlight significant policy support for innovative pharmaceuticals and medical devices in Beijing and Shenzhen, focusing on enhancing efficiency, expanding circulation, improving accessibility, and promoting AI integration in the medical field [2][3][7]. Summary by Sections Beijing's Measures - Clinical trial project initiation time will be reduced to within 20 weeks, and the review and approval time for innovative drug clinical trials will be cut from 60 to 30 working days, with a target of at least 15 new innovative drugs and devices approved by 2025 [2]. - The import process for drugs and devices will be streamlined, eliminating special health inspections for cross-border items [2]. - National health insurance negotiations will directly include newly approved drugs in medical institution drug lists, with a focus on rapid listing within one month post-approval [2]. Shenzhen's Measures - Increased support for basic research in areas such as cancer, cardiovascular diseases, and metabolic disorders [3]. - Development of core synthetic biology technologies and a focus on creating a "Shenzhen model" for innovation transfer [3]. - Enhanced support for innovative medical devices, including financial backing for R&D costs of new pet medical devices [3]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on innovative pharmaceutical companies with differentiated innovation and commercialization capabilities in areas like cancer, cardiovascular diseases, and stem cells [7]. - There is an emphasis on the potential for domestic substitutes in the medical device sector and the application of AI in pharmaceuticals [7].

市 场 研 究 [Table_Title] 万联晨会 [Table_MeetReportDate] 2025 年 04 月 08 日 星期二 [Table_Summary] 概览 核心观点 【市场回顾】 周一 A 股三大指数集体收跌，截止收盘，沪指收跌 7.34%，深成指收 跌 9.66%，创业板指收跌 12.5%。沪深两市成交额 15870.8 亿元。申 万行业方面，农林牧渔、食品饮料、银行领涨，计算机、机械设备、 传媒领跌。港股方面，恒生指数收跌 13.22%，恒生科技指数收跌 17.16%；海外方面，美国三大指数涨跌不一，道指收跌 0.91%，标普 500 收跌 0.23%，纳指收涨 0.1%。 3220 【重要新闻】 【人民日报发表评论员文章指出，面对美滥施关税的乱拳，我们心中 有数、手上有招】未来根据形势需要，降准、降息等货币政策工具已 留有充分调整余地，随时可以出台；财政政策已明确要加大支出强度、 加快支出进度，财政赤字、专项债、特别国债等视情仍有进一步扩张 空间；将以超常规力度提振国内消费，加快落实既定政策，并适时出 台一批储备政策；以实实在在的政策措施坚决稳住资本市场，稳定市 场信心，相关预案 ...

Group 1 - The report highlights the impact of the U.S. imposing a 10% minimum baseline tariff on trade partners, with specific tariffs of 34% on China and 20% to 49% on other countries, which may lead to increased inflation risks in the U.S. [2][3] - China's exports to the U.S. have decreased from 19.2% of total exports in 2018 to 14.7% in 2024, indicating a shift in trade dynamics and a growing reliance on other markets [2][3] - The report emphasizes that despite short-term impacts from tariffs, China's strong domestic market and manufacturing capabilities will support continued economic growth and expansion of trade partnerships [2][3] Group 2 - The report suggests that since September 2024, China has implemented favorable policies to stabilize and boost the domestic economy, with a focus on increasing consumption and investment [2][3] - Investment recommendations include focusing on blue-chip stocks with stable performance and high dividend yields, as well as technology sectors benefiting from domestic substitution [3]

清明旅游稳步增长，政策落地成效显现 [Table_ReportType] ——社会服务行业快评报告[Table_ReportDate] ⚫ 景区：旅游市场稳步复苏，"堵山"成名场面。今年清明小长假 旅游人次及收入同比增速与春节黄金周基本持平（出游人次、出 游总花费他同比分别增长 5.9%/7.0%），在去年高基数下保持平稳 增长。在踏青赏花需求催化下，短途徒步、亲子登山等低门槛活 动成为家庭出游首选，山岳类景区热度大涨，西安终南山、开封 万岁山等多个山岳类景区发布限流提示。 ⚫ 国内游："年假+清明"拼假潮兴起，小长假长线游客近四成。与 往年相比，今年清明节前 3 天以及节后 2 天的机票预订量也有明 显上涨， "年假+清明"的拼假模式兴起。3 月 16 日，两办发布《提 振消费专项行动方案》，提出"严格落实带薪年休假制度"，"鼓 励带薪年休假与小长假连休，实现弹性错峰休假"，政策落地推 动短假长线游趋势，途牛数据显示，3 天假期仍有 37%的游客选 择长线游，三亚、北京、重庆、南京、桂林等目的地成为长线游 的热门选择。 ⚫ 跨境游：祭祖文化推动跨境客流增长，文旅融合撬动需求。据移 民管理局数据，清明节假期 ...

市 场 研 究 [Table_Title] 万联晨会 [Table_MeetReportDate] 2025 年 04 月 07 日 星期一 [Table_Summary] 概览 核心观点 【市场回顾】 清明假期前最后一个交易日，A 股三大指数集体收跌，截止收盘，沪 指收跌 0.24%，深成指收跌 1.4%，创业板指收跌 1.86%。沪深两市成 交额 1.14 万亿元。申万行业方面，农林牧渔、公用事业、食品饮料 领涨，家用电器、电子、汽车领跌；概念板块方面，中韩自贸区、动 物疫苗、禽流感概念领涨，同花顺果指数、同花顺出海 50、AI PC 领 跌。港股方面，恒生指数收跌 1.52%，恒生科技指数收跌 2.09%；海 外方面，上周五美国三大指数集体收跌，道指收跌 5.5%，标普 500 收 跌 5.97%，纳指收跌 5.82%。 3230 【重要新闻】 【国务院关税税则委员会：对原产于美国的所有进口商品加征 34%关 税】2025 年 4 月 2 日，美国政府宣布对中国输美商品征收"对等关 税"。根据《中华人民共和国关税法》、《中华人民共和国海关法》、《中 华人民共和国对外贸易法》等法律法规和国际法基本原则，经 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" [4][18]. Core Insights - The 2025 Qingming Festival film season is expected to feature 7 key films, including "The Silent Love," "Hot," "Sunshine Blossoms," "Operation Fox Hunt," "My World Movie," "Mobile Suit Gundam: Cross-Time War," and "Sunshine Shines in Youth" [1]. - The overall box office performance for the Qingming Festival is anticipated to improve, with a historical trend showing an increase from 687 million yuan in 2018 to 843 million yuan in 2024, with the box office share rising from 1.13% to 1.98% [2][8]. - The internal structure of the films is diverse, catering to various audience preferences, with a focus on realism. The top three films projected for the 2025 Qingming Festival are "Sunshine Blossoms," "The Silent Love," and "My World Movie," with a total box office forecast of 714 million yuan [3][14]. Summary by Sections Overall Box Office - The Qingming Festival is positioned as the first major box office period after the Spring Festival, historically playing a crucial role in the first half of the year. The box office for the Qingming Festival has shown a gradual increase over the years, with a notable recovery in 2024 driven by Hayao Miyazaki's film [2][8]. Internal Structure - The upcoming films for the Qingming Festival encompass various genres, including suspense, crime, action, and fantasy, focusing on realistic themes. The film "Sunshine Blossoms," directed by Feng Xiaogang and starring Zhao Liying, is expected to perform well due to its strong narrative and cast [3][10]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the viewing enthusiasm will continue to be released due to the rich supply of films and diverse genres, leading to a stable and positive box office performance. It recommends focusing on high-quality film production companies and leading cinema chains [16].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected relative price increase of over 15% compared to the market in the next six months [4]. Core Insights - The company's core business remains stable, with a notable improvement in gross margin. In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 3.983 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 13.02%, primarily due to the impact of the real estate business divestiture. Excluding real estate, core business revenue remained flat. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 244 million yuan, down 19.73% year-on-year, while the net profit excluding non-recurring items was 215 million yuan, up 54.54% year-on-year [1][2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q4, the company recorded revenue of 1.180 billion yuan, a slight decline of 0.33% year-on-year, with a net profit of 72 million yuan, an increase of 10.72% year-on-year [1]. - The gross margin improved by 6.19 percentage points to 52.68% in 2024, mainly due to the divestiture of low-margin real estate business and optimization of the cosmetics and raw materials business structure. The net profit margin decreased by 0.56 percentage points to 7.44% [2]. Business Segments - The cosmetics segment generated revenue of 2.475 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 2.46%, with a gross margin of 62.57%. The "Yilian" brand achieved revenue of 963 million yuan, up 12.36% year-on-year, while "Aier Doctor" reported revenue of 1.301 billion yuan, down 3.48% year-on-year [3]. - The pharmaceutical segment's revenue was 512 million yuan, a decrease of 1.41% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 52.32%. The company is expanding its distribution channels and launching new functional food products [3]. Profit Forecast - The company forecasts revenues of 4.389 billion yuan in 2025, 4.710 billion yuan in 2026, and 5.056 billion yuan in 2027, with corresponding growth rates of 10.20%, 7.32%, and 7.34% respectively. The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 283 million yuan in 2025, 317 million yuan in 2026, and 360 million yuan in 2027 [4][10].

Core Insights - The A-share market showed slight gains with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.05% to 3,350.13 points, the Shenzhen Component increasing by 0.09% to 10,513.12 points, and the ChiNext Index up by 0.13% to 2,104.63 points. The total trading volume in the A-share market reached 9,743.01 billion RMB, with net purchases from southbound funds amounting to 11.717 billion HKD. Over 2,600 stocks in the A-share market experienced gains [2][6] - In terms of industry performance, the textile and apparel, beauty care, and telecommunications sectors led the gains, while the defense and military, as well as non-ferrous metals sectors, saw the largest declines. Concept indices such as PVDF and noise control showed significant increases, whereas combustible ice and military equipment restructuring indices faced notable declines [2][6] - Internationally, the US stock indices collectively rose, with the Dow Jones increasing by 0.56% to 42,225.32 points, the S&P 500 up by 0.67% to 5,670.97 points, and the Nasdaq rising by 0.87% to 17,601.05 points. Conversely, the Hang Seng Index fell by 0.02%, while the Hang Seng Tech Index rose by 0.35% [2][4][6] Important News - The State Council's inter-ministerial joint meeting on reducing corporate burdens emphasized addressing overdue payments to enterprises, implementing actions to accelerate the clearance of such debts, and establishing a national complaint platform for overdue payments to small and medium-sized enterprises. The meeting also highlighted the need to reduce corporate costs through policies like large-scale equipment upgrades and trade-in programs for consumer goods [7] - The Central Committee and the State Council issued opinions on improving price governance mechanisms, advocating for a market-oriented approach to price formation, promoting efficient flow of high-quality production factors, and ensuring effective service to the national unified market construction [3][7]

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a collective decline on Monday, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling by 0.46% to 3,335.75 points, the Shenzhen Component Index down by 0.97% to 10,504.33 points, and the ChiNext Index decreasing by 1.15% to 2,103.70 points. The total trading volume in the A-share market was 12,213.00 billion RMB, with net purchases from southbound funds amounting to 2.914 billion HKD. Over 3,800 stocks in the A-share market declined [2][6] - In the Shenwan industry sector, telecommunications, home appliances, and banking sectors led the gains, while the power equipment and defense industries saw the largest declines. Concept indices such as China AI50 and EDR performed well, while the fentanyl and Hainan Free Trade Zone indices faced significant drops [2][6] Important News - The Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for March was reported at 50.5%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a continued recovery in manufacturing sentiment. The Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index rose to 50.8%, up by 0.4 percentage points, suggesting an acceleration in non-manufacturing expansion. The Composite PMI Output Index reached 51.4%, also up by 0.3 percentage points, reflecting an overall acceleration in production and business activities [3][7] Company Performance Insights - As of March 27, 2024, 1,601 out of 5,405 A-share listed companies had disclosed their annual reports, representing 29.6%. These companies collectively achieved operating revenues of 280,664.72 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 1.80%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 28,098.85 billion RMB, up by 10.63%. Notably, 187 companies reported a net profit growth of over 50%, and 76 companies saw their net profit more than double [8][9] - Among the companies with disclosed annual reports, industries such as non-bank financials, transportation, automotive, and electronics showed higher year-on-year growth in net profit [8][9] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on blue-chip stocks with stable performance and high dividend yields, as well as leading companies in the machinery and consumer sectors that are expected to benefit from the "Two New and Two Heavy" policy initiatives. Additionally, the report highlights the recovery in the technology and communication sectors driven by the AI wave [9][11] - The newly launched AutoGLM by Zhiyuan is expected to enhance the capabilities of AI agents, promoting technological advancements and applications in the industry. The focus on AI-driven decision-making and perception systems positions Zhiyuan as a key player in the AI agent market [12][13] - Vivo's entry into the robotics industry, targeting home and personal scenarios, is seen as a strategic move to address the aging population's needs while avoiding competition in the industrial robotics sector. The emphasis on AI-driven decision-making and perception technology is expected to differentiate Vivo's offerings in the market [14][15] Financial Sector Developments - Four major banks, including China Construction Bank and Bank of China, announced a total capital injection of 520 billion RMB through a private placement, with the Ministry of Finance contributing 500 billion RMB. This capital injection is expected to enhance the banks' capital adequacy ratios and support their growth stability [17][19] - The report indicates that the overall asset quality of the banking sector remains stable, with a slight improvement in the provision coverage ratio. The anticipated fiscal policy support is expected to positively impact the macroeconomic recovery and improve the asset quality outlook for banks [19][20] Industry Performance - Zhujiang Beer reported a revenue of 5.731 billion RMB for 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 6.56%, and a net profit of 810 million RMB, up by 29.95%. The increase in gross and net profit margins is attributed to lower raw material costs and product upgrades [25][26] - The company is focusing on expanding its high-end product offerings and enhancing its brand through various cultural and sports events, which is expected to drive future growth and profitability [28][29]