1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Aluminum: Range-bound oscillation [1] - Alumina: Potential further downside [1] - Cast aluminum alloy: Tracks electrolytic aluminum [1] 2. Core Viewpoints - The market for aluminum is expected to show range - bound movement, while alumina may still have room to decline, and cast aluminum alloy will follow the trend of electrolytic aluminum [1] - The US market shows "stock - bond double - rise" with different narratives. The bond market prices in "employment slowdown", and the stock market prices in "economic acceleration". There are risks of stock market decline if growth prospects worsen and bond market correction if employment is stronger than expected [3] - The Bank of Japan may raise interest rates as early as October. Despite political uncertainties, the bank may continue to tighten monetary policy considering economic data and inflation [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market Aluminum - The closing price of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract was 20,750, up 30 from the previous day. The trading volume was 99,364, a decrease of 8,155. The open interest was 194,194, a decrease of 1,586 [1] - The LME Aluminum 3M closing price was 2,628, up 18. The trading volume was 15,566, a decrease of 2,482 [1] Alumina - The closing price of the Shanghai Alumina main contract was 2,929, down 31. The trading volume was 226,938, a decrease of 77,820. The open interest was 281,112, an increase of 8,382 [1] Aluminum Alloy - The closing price of the aluminum alloy main contract was 20,305, up 10. The trading volume was 962, a decrease of 96. The open interest was 7,825, an increase of 115 [1] Spot Market Aluminum - The domestic aluminum ingot social inventory was 629,000 tons, unchanged from the previous day. The aluminum ingot refined - scrap price difference was 278, up 46 [1] Alumina - The alumina average price in China was 3,128, down 18. The alumina price at Lianyungang's arrival port was 363 US dollars per ton, down 16 [1] Aluminum Alloy - The theoretical profit of ADC12 was 198, down 72. The total inventory of three locations was 34,877, an increase of 70 [1] Other Market Indicators - The trend strength of aluminum is 0, alumina is - 1, and aluminum alloy is 0 [3]

2025 年 09 月 10 日 豆粕：调整震荡 豆一：回落调整 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 商 品 研 究 吴光静 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0011992 wuguangjing@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 豆粕/豆一基本面数据 | | | （日盘） 收盘价 | 涨 跌 | （夜盘） 收盘价 | 涨 跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | DCE豆一2511 （元/吨） | 3968 | -5（-0.13%） | 3937 | -34（-0.86%） | | 期 货 | DCE豆粕2601 （元/吨） | 3075 | -4（-0.13%） | 3066 | -10（-0.33%） | | | CBOT大豆11 （美分/蒲） | 1030.5 | -3.5（-0.34%） | | | | | CBOT豆粕12 （美元/短吨） | 288.6 | +3.4（+1.19%） | n a | | | | | | 豆粕 | （43%） | | | | 山东 （元/吨） | 3060～3070， 平； 10月M2601+0， | 较昨-20至持平； 持平； ...

2025 年 9 月 10 日 股指期货将震荡整理 黄金期货价格再创上市以来新高 白 银、工业硅、螺纹钢、铁矿石、焦煤、玻璃、纯碱期货将 偏弱震荡 碳酸锂、多晶硅期货将震荡偏弱 陶金峰 期货投资咨询从业资格号：Z0000372 邮箱：taojinfeng@gtht.com 【正文】 【声明】 本报告的观点和信息仅供风险承受能力合适的投资者参考。本报告难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不 便，敬请谅解。若您并非风险承受能力合适的投资者，请勿阅读、订阅或接收任何相关信息。本报告不构 成具体业务或产品的推介，亦不应被视为相应金融衍生品的投资建议。请您根据自身的风险承受能力自行 作出投资决定并自主承担投资风险，不应凭借本内容进行具体操作。 【期货行情前瞻要点】 通过宏观基本面分析和黄金分割线、水平线、日均线等技术面分析，预期今日期货主力合约行情走势大概率如 下： 股指期货将震荡整理：IF2509 阻力位 4441 和 4464 点，支撑位 4395 和 4351 点；IH2509 阻力位 2940 和 2956 点，支撑位 2910 和 2898 点；IC2509 阻力位 6967 和 7000 点，支撑位 6807 和 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report provides daily market analysis and trend forecasts for various energy and chemical commodities, including PX, PTA, MEG, rubber, synthetic rubber, asphalt, LLDPE, PP, caustic soda, pulp, glass, methanol, urea, styrene, soda ash, LPG, propylene, PVC, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, and container shipping index (European line). Each commodity has its own short - term and medium - term trends and influencing factors [2][12][13]. 3. Summary by Commodity PX, PTA, MEG - **PX**: Short - term rebound possible due to short - term PX device start - up decline and tight - balance pattern; long - term weak due to weak demand. Suggested trading strategies include callback long, 11 - 01 positive spread, 1 - 5 reverse spread, and cross - variety strategies [12]. - **PTA**: In a tight - balance supply - demand situation, but concerns about future supply increase. Basis and monthly spread are generally weak [13]. - **MEG**: Unilateral trend is weak, but downside space is limited. Suggested to go long at low prices [13]. Rubber - Rubber is expected to have a wide - range shock. The overall order performance of tire enterprises in September is stable and slightly stronger, but export orders still face pressure, and the overall demand is weak [14][17]. Synthetic Rubber - Short - term decline and medium - term shock. Although the fundamentals face pressure from high supply, some expectations such as the Fed's possible preventive interest rate cut and domestic anti - involution policies provide support [21]. Asphalt - Narrow - range shock. This week's production increased, factory inventory increased in some areas, and social inventory decreased in some areas due to the recovery of terminal demand [22][37]. LLDPE - Medium - term shock. PE demand is improving due to the approaching peak season of the agricultural film industry, and the supply pressure may be relieved in the East China region at the end of September [38][39]. PP - Short - term shock and long - term pressure. Short - term demand has improved, but the cost side is weak, and the supply pressure will increase in the future [42][43]. Caustic Soda - Wide - range shock. The driving force for price increase is insufficient due to problems in export and alumina markets [46][48]. Pulp - Oscillating operation. Although the external market price is firm, the domestic futures and spot markets are under pressure due to high inventory and weak downstream demand [52][56]. Glass - The price of the original sheet is stable. The domestic float glass market is generally stable with a slight upward trend, but the overall trading atmosphere is average [57][58]. Methanol - Oscillating operation. The upper price limit is restricted by high supply and inventory, while the lower limit is supported by the expectation of fundamental improvement and domestic anti - involution policies [60][64]. Urea - Weak operation. Short - term shock and pressure, long - term trend is weak. Although export is accelerating, it cannot make up for the weak domestic demand [65][68]. Styrene - Medium - term bearish. The cost center of crude oil has moved down, and the short - term downward space of pure benzene and styrene has opened up [69][70]. Soda Ash - The spot market has little change. The domestic soda ash market continues to be weak, with flexible price transactions and general downstream demand [71][73]. LPG and Propylene - LPG: Geopolitical risks are rising, and oil prices are rising. Propylene: Due to the fluctuation of supply devices, spot transactions have increased [75]. PVC - Under pressure. The supply side maintains high operation, domestic demand is weak, social inventory continues to accumulate, and there are uncertainties in export policies [84]. Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Fuel oil: Slight rebound and short - term adjustment. Low - sulfur fuel oil: Relatively weaker than high - sulfur fuel oil, and the price difference between high - and low - sulfur in the external spot market continues to narrow [87]. Container Shipping Index (European Line) - Oscillating and under pressure. The freight rate index shows a downward trend, and the market is affected by factors such as shipping capacity and demand [89].

Report Overview - Report Date: September 10, 2025 [1] - Report Title: Gold: Revised Down Non-Farm Payrolls; Silver: Rising Gold-Silver Ratio [1] - Analysts: Wang Rong, Liu Yuxuan [2] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - The U.S. non-farm annual revision is worse than expected, with a downward adjustment of 911,000, increasing the pressure on the Fed to cut interest rates [2] - Israel's attack on the Hamas leadership in the Qatari capital has escalated Middle East risks [6] - Macron appointed the 5th French Prime Minister, Defense Minister Le Cornu, aged 39 [6] - The U.S. Supreme Court will quickly hear Trump's tariff case [6] - Apple released the A19 chip for the iPhone 17, with the thinnest iPhone starting at $999, the Pro version seeing its first price increase in eight years, and the iPhone 17 Air's domestic version starting at 7,999 yuan [6] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Fundamental Tracking 3.1.1 Price - Gold: The closing prices of Shanghai Gold 2510, Gold T+D, and Comex Gold 2510 were 822.86, 820.77, and 3,677.60 respectively, with daily increases of 0.89%, 1.12%, and 1.04% [2] - Silver: The closing prices of Shanghai Silver 2510, Silver T+D, and Comex Silver 2510 were 9,813, 9,798, and 41.940 respectively, with daily increases of 0.01%, 0.10%, and 1.04% [2] 3.1.2 Trading Volume and Open Interest - Gold: The trading volume of Shanghai Gold 2510 was 258,829, an increase of 75,510 from the previous day, and the open interest was 129,838, a decrease of 3,147 [2] - Silver: The trading volume of Shanghai Silver 2510 was 702,009, an increase of 238,006 from the previous day, and the open interest was 232,496, a decrease of 8,618 [2] 3.1.3 ETF and Inventory - ETF: The SPDR Gold ETF's open interest was 981.97, unchanged from the previous day; the SLV Silver ETF's open interest (the day before yesterday) was 15,193.85, a decrease of 37 [2] - Inventory: The Shanghai Gold inventory was 43,335 kg, an increase of 81 kg from the previous day; the Comex Gold inventory (the day before yesterday) was 38,957,798 troy ounces, unchanged [2] 3.1.4 Spread - Gold: The spread between Gold T+D and AU251 was -2.09, unchanged from the previous day; the cost of the long December Shanghai Gold and short June cross - period arbitrage was 4.77, a decrease of 0.87 from the previous day [2] - Silver: The spread between Silver T+D and AG2510 was 24, an increase of 21 from the previous day; the spread between Shanghai Silver 2510 and 2512 was -9,016, a decrease of 38 from the previous day [2] 3.2 Trend Intensity - Gold trend intensity: 1; Silver trend intensity: 1. The trend intensity ranges from -2 to 2, with -2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the report industry investment rating. Report's Core View - The domestic soda ash market continues to be weak with flexible price transactions. The soda ash plant shows no significant fluctuations, and only the output of individual enterprises fluctuates slightly. Henan Junhua plans to conduct maintenance tomorrow. Downstream enterprises' demand is average, continuing with just - in - time restocking and being cautious. The short - term market is expected to lack substantial support and prices will be weakly adjusted [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - Futures: The SA2601 contract had a closing price of 1,278 yesterday, a daily decline of 0.62%, a trading volume of 1,103,470, and an open - interest change of 22,953 [3]. - Spreads: The 01 - contract basis was - 78 yesterday (compared to - 93 the day before), and the 01 - 05 contract spread was - 80 yesterday (the same as the day before) [3]. - Important Spot Prices: In North China, the spot price was 1,300 yuan/ton yesterday (the same as the day before); in East China and Central China, it was 1,200 yuan/ton yesterday (the same as the day before) [3]. Spot News - The domestic soda ash market maintains a weak trend with flexible price transactions. There are no obvious fluctuations in soda ash plants, only slight output fluctuations in individual enterprises. Henan Junhua plans maintenance tomorrow. Downstream demand is average, with just - in - time restocking and a cautious attitude. The short - term market is expected to lack support and prices will adjust weakly [3]. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of soda ash is - 1, indicating a bearish view, with the value ranging from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The manganese - silicon market is affected by market sentiment and shows wide - range fluctuations. The trend strength of both ferrosilicon and manganese - silicon is neutral [1][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: - Ferrosilicon 2511 closed at 5620, down 4 from the previous trading day, with a trading volume of 142,273 and an open interest of 223,860. Ferrosilicon 2601 closed at 5578, down 6, with a trading volume of 45,024 and an open interest of 103,748. - Manganese - silicon 2511 closed at 5826, down 4, with a trading volume of 80,920 and an open interest of 121,178. Manganese - silicon 2601 closed at 5838, down 2, with a trading volume of 119,207 and an open interest of 318,548 [1]. - **Spot Data**: - The price of ferrosilicon FeSi75 - B in Inner Mongolia was 5310 yuan/ton, up 30. The price of ferromanganese FeMn65Si17 in Inner Mongolia was 5680 yuan/ton. - The price of manganese ore Mn44 block was 39.8 yuan/ton - degree, up 0.3. The price of semi - coke small materials in Shenmu was 650 yuan/ton [1]. - **Price Difference Data**: - The spot - futures price difference of ferrosilicon (spot - 11 futures) was - 310 yuan/ton, up 34. The spot - futures price difference of manganese - silicon (spot - 01 futures) was - 158 yuan/ton, up 4. - The near - far monthly price difference of ferrosilicon 2511 - 2601 was 42 yuan/ton, up 2. The near - far monthly price difference of manganese - silicon 2511 - 2601 was - 12 yuan/ton, down 2. - The cross - variety price difference of manganese - silicon 2511 - ferrosilicon 2511 was 206 yuan/ton, unchanged. The cross - variety price difference of manganese - silicon 2601 - ferrosilicon 2601 was 260 yuan/ton, up 4 [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - On September 9, the price range of 72 ferrosilicon was 5150 - 5350 yuan/ton in different regions, and the price range of 75 ferrosilicon was 5700 - 5900 yuan/ton. The FOB price of 72 ferrosilicon was 1040 - 1060 dollars/ton, and that of 75 was 1100 - 1130 dollars/ton. The northern quotation of 6517 ferromanganese was 5650 - 5750 yuan/ton, and the southern quotation was 5700 - 5800 yuan/ton, up 50 [1]. - A large steel mill in Jiangsu finalized the purchase price of 75B ferrosilicon at 5750 yuan/ton acceptance [1]. - A large steel group in Hebei tendered 17,000 tons of ferromanganese in September, an increase of 900 tons compared with August. It tendered 3151 tons of 75B ferrosilicon in September, an increase of 316 tons compared with August [2][3]. - UMK announced the manganese ore quotation for China in October 2025: Mn36% South African lump ore was 4 dollars/ton - degree, a decrease of 0.05 dollars/ton - degree compared with the previous month's quotation [3]. 3.3 Trend Strength The trend strength of ferrosilicon is 0, and that of manganese - silicon is 0, indicating a neutral trend for both [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for zinc is "sideways consolidation" [1] Core View - The report provides a comprehensive analysis of the zinc market, including price movements, trading volume, open interest, and inventory levels, as well as relevant news and trend strength [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Price**: The closing price of the Shanghai Zinc main contract was 22,125 yuan/ton, down 0.65% from the previous day, while the LME Zinc 3M electronic disk closed at 2,873 dollars/ton, up 0.54% [1] - **Volume**: The trading volume of the Shanghai Zinc main contract was 100,465 lots, a decrease of 33,120 lots, and the LME Zinc trading volume was 9,065 lots, a decrease of 1,628 lots [1] - **Open Interest**: The open interest of the Shanghai Zinc main contract was 108,199 lots, an increase of 2,698 lots, and the LME Zinc open interest was 199,723 lots, a decrease of 989 lots [1] - **Premium and Discount**: The premium of Shanghai 0 zinc was -65 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan/ton, and the LME CASH - 3M premium was 16.46 dollars/ton, a decrease of 5.98 dollars/ton [1] - **Inventory**: The Shanghai Zinc futures inventory was 42,681 tons, a decrease of 26 tons, and the LME Zinc inventory was 51,025 tons, a decrease of 2,050 tons [1] News - The US non - farm annual revision was worse than expected, with a downward revision of 911,000. This has increased the pressure on the Fed to cut interest rates [1] Trend Strength - The trend strength of zinc is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [1][3]

Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Group 2: Core View - The price of lead is fluctuating, and the lead trend strength is neutral [1]. Group 3: Summary of Each Section Fundamental Tracking - **Prices**: The closing price of the main Shanghai lead contract was 16,930 yuan/ton, up 0.21%; the closing price of the LME 3M electronic lead contract was 1,990 dollars/ton, up 0.10% [1]. - **Volumes**: The trading volume of the main Shanghai lead contract was 30,476 lots, a decrease of 10,182 lots; the LME lead trading volume was 3,368 lots, a decrease of 2,242 lots [1]. - **Open Interests**: The open interest of the main Shanghai lead contract was 49,701 lots, an increase of 817 lots; the LME lead open interest was 156,391 lots, a decrease of 1,110 lots [1]. - **Premiums and Discounts**: The premium of Shanghai 1 lead was -35 yuan/ton, unchanged; the LME CASH - 3M premium was -43.36 dollars/ton, up 0.12 dollars/ton [1]. - **Import Profits and Losses**: The spot import profit and loss of lead ingots was -413.26 yuan/ton, an increase of 68.19 yuan/ton; the import profit and loss of the continuous third - month Shanghai lead contract was -402.22 yuan/ton, an increase of 70.39 yuan/ton [1]. - **Inventories**: The Shanghai lead futures inventory was 53,820 tons, an increase of 25 tons; the LME lead inventory was 239,325 tons, a decrease of 3,800 tons [1]. - **Recycled Lead**: The price of recycled electric vehicle batteries was 10,050 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of recycled refined lead was 16,750 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan/ton; the comprehensive profit and loss of recycled lead was -249 yuan/ton, an increase of 26 yuan/ton [1]. News - The US non - farm annual revision was worse than expected, with a downward revision of 911,000, increasing the pressure on the Fed to cut interest rates [1]. - After the US government released the significantly revised annual non - farm employment data, the White House quickly responded and criticized the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), former US President Biden, and Fed Chairman Powell [1].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The trend strength of lithium carbonate is -2, indicating the most bearish view [4] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The resumption progress of large lithium carbonate manufacturers exceeds expectations, and the market is operating weakly [1] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market Data**: For the 2509 contract, the closing price is 72,820 yuan, down 2,440 yuan from T - 1; the trading volume is 183 lots, down 93 lots; the open interest is 1,351 lots, down 754 lots. For the 2511 contract, the closing price is 72,900 yuan, down 1,900 yuan; the trading volume is 591,675 lots, down 190,712 lots; the open interest is 351,340 lots, down 12,797 lots. The warehouse receipt volume is 38,101 lots, up 650 lots [2] - **Spot and Basis Data**: The spot - 2509 basis is 1,780 yuan, the spot - 2511 basis is 1,700 yuan, and the 2509 - 2511 basis is - 80 yuan. The difference between electric carbon and industrial carbon is 2,250 yuan, and the spot - CIF difference is 7,202 yuan [2] - **Raw Material and Lithium Salt Data**: The price of spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) is 879 yuan, up 3 yuan; the price of lithium mica (2.0% - 2.5%) is 1,865 yuan, unchanged. The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 74,600 yuan, unchanged; the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 72,350 yuan, unchanged [2] 2. Macro and Industry News - SMM's battery - grade lithium carbonate index price is 74,589 yuan/ton, up 94 yuan/ton from the previous working day. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 74,600 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 72,350 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] - Ningde Times' subsidiary is promoting the resumption of production at the Jianxiawo lithium mine. The approval of the mining license is progressing smoothly, and it is expected to resume production soon, faster than the market's fastest expectation [4] - Sichuan Energy Investment De'a Lithium Industry Co., Ltd., a subsidiary of Sichuan Energy Investment Power Co., Ltd., has successfully produced qualified battery - grade lithium carbonate products. The project with an annual output of 30,000 tons of lithium salt is expected to have an annual output value of 2.4 billion yuan and drive local employment [4]