2025 年 12 月 29 日 铅：需求偏弱，限制价格上涨 季先飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012691 jixianfei@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 | | 昨日值 | 较前日变动/涨跌幅 | | 昨日值 | 较前日变动/涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪铅主力收盘价 | 17555 | 1.39% | 伦铅 3M 电子盘收 | 1999.5 | 0.83% | | （元/吨） | | | 盘（美元/吨） | | | | 沪铅主力成交量 | 58769 | 3669 | 伦铅成交量（手） | 3806 | -1794 | | （手） | | | | | | | 沪铅主力持仓量 | 55558 | -770 | 伦铅持仓量（手） | 178155 | 167 | | （手） | | | | | | | 上海 1# 铅升贴水 | 0 | -20 | LME CASH-3M 升 | -37.81 | 4.49 | | （元/吨） | | | 贴水（美元/吨） | | | | PB00-PB01（元/吨） | -15 | 20 | 进口升贴水（美 ...

2025 年 12 月 29 日 铜：海外现货走强，支撑价格上涨 季先飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012691 jixianfei@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 铜基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪铜主力合约 | 98,720 | 2.61% | 101380 | 2.69% | | | 伦铜3M电子盘 | 12,133 | 0.65% | - | - | | | | 昨日成交 | 较前日变动 | 昨日持仓 | 较前日变动 | | 期 货 | 沪铜指数 | 550,030 | 72,800 | 654,736 | 3,179 | | | 伦铜3M电子盘 | 18,195 | -8,111 | 340,000 | -2,248 | | | | 昨日期货库存 | 较前日变动 | 注销仓单比 | 较前日变动 | | | 沪铜 | 58,647 | -436 | - | - | | | 伦铜 | 157,025 | -1,550 | 29.63% | -1.19% | | | ...

所长 早读 国泰君安期货 2025-12-29 期 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 期货研究 2025-12-29 所长 早读 今 日 发 现 全国财政工作会议：2026 年继续实施更加积极的财政政策 观点分享： 12 月 27 日至 28 日，全国财政工作会议在北京召开。会议指出，2026 年继续实施更加 积极的财政政策。一是扩大财政支出盘子，确保必要支出力度。二是优化政府债券工具组 合，更好发挥债券效益。三是提高转移支付资金效能，增强地方自主可用财力。四是持续优 化支出结构，强化重点领域保障。五是加强财政金融协同，放大政策效能。 所 长 首 推 | 板块 | 关注指数 | | --- | --- | | PX | ★★★★ | PX：高位震荡市，节前注意仓位管理。供应端边际宽松，目前中化泉州 80 万吨/年 PX 装置 检修中，大连福佳一套 100 万吨/年 PX 装置正在重启，天津石化 38 万吨/年 PX 装置 23 日 停车，其他 PX 装置基本保持高负荷运行，国内 PX 开工在 88.2%（+0.1%）。海外装置方 面，PTTG54 万吨装置近期重启，GS55 万吨装置计划 1 月 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - On December 27, all four major stock index futures contracts for the current month rose. IF increased by 0.44%, IH by 0.46%, IC by 0.66%, and IM by 0.47%. The total trading volume of stock index futures rebounded on the trading day, indicating an increase in investors' trading enthusiasm. The total positions of IF, IH, IC, and IM also increased. The report suggests that stock index futures may continue to be relatively strong [1][2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Stock Index Futures Data Tracking - **Closing Price and Fluctuation**: The closing prices of major stock indices such as CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 all increased on December 27. The corresponding futures contracts also showed varying degrees of increase, with CSI 500 futures having a relatively large increase [1]. - **Basis**: The basis of each futures contract varies. For example, the basis of IF2601 is -0.24, and that of IH2601 is 2.6 [1]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume and open interest of each futures contract generally increased. For example, the trading volume of IF2601 increased by 7,560, and the open interest increased by 1,048 [1]. 3.2 Trading Volume and Open Interest Changes - **Trading Volume**: The total trading volume of IF increased by 31,729 lots, IH by 18,675 lots, IC by 41,554 lots, and IM by 41,783 lots [2]. - **Open Interest**: The total open interest of IF increased by 16,208 lots, IH by 9,590 lots, IC by 25,777 lots, and IM by 21,680 lots [2]. 3.3 Top 20 Member Position Changes - The long and short positions of the top 20 members in each futures contract have different changes. For example, in IF2601, the long positions increased by 753, and the short positions increased by 807 [5]. 3.4 Trend Strength - The trend strength of IF and IH is 1, and that of IC and IM is also 1. The trend strength ranges from -2 to 2, with -2 indicating the most bearish and 2 indicating the most bullish [6]. 3.5 Important Drivers - **Fiscal Policy**: The National Fiscal Work Conference proposed to continue to implement a more proactive fiscal policy in 2026, including expanding fiscal expenditure, optimizing government bond tool combinations, and improving transfer payment efficiency [6]. - **Venture Capital Fund**: The National Venture Capital Guidance Fund was officially launched, with a fiscal investment of 100 billion yuan at the national level and expected to leverage trillions of yuan of social capital at the regional and sub - fund levels, focusing on strategic emerging and future industries [6]. - **Regulatory Policies**: The central bank and relevant departments will improve the policy environment for long - term investment in A - shares, promote the improvement of listed company quality, and strengthen supervision [7]. - **Industrial Policies**: The National Conference on Industry and Information Technology deployed key tasks for 2026, including rectifying "involution - style" competition, supporting AI research, and promoting new business commercialization [7]. 3.6 Market Performance - **A - share Market**: A - shares showed a volatile trend with increased trading volume. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.10% to 3,963.68 points, achieving an 8 - day consecutive increase. The Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.54%, and the ChiNext Index rose 0.14%. The trading volume reached 2.18 trillion yuan [7]. - **US Stock Market**: The three major US stock indices closed slightly lower. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.04%, the S&P 500 Index fell 0.03%, and the Nasdaq Composite Index fell 0.09%. Factors such as the adjustment of the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations, extreme weather, and increased market risk - aversion sentiment suppressed the US stock market [8].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - PX: High-level volatile market [1][6] - PTA: High-level volatile market [1][7] - MEG: Limited upside space, medium-term pressure, price range volatile market [1][8] Core Views - PX is expected to maintain a high-level volatile market due to increased supply and decreased demand, but the tight balance pattern cannot be falsified for now [6] - PTA is in a high-level volatile market with supply reduction and demand increase, leading to continuous inventory depletion and positive impacts on monthly spreads and basis [7] - MEG is in a price range volatile market. Although the inventory accumulation pattern is difficult to change, the supply is expected to shrink, and the inventory accumulation expectation has marginally improved [8] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Dynamics - An 700,000-ton PX unit in the Northeast is currently restarting, and its capacity will expand to 1 million tons/year after restart [2] - A 3.6-million-ton PTA unit in East China is currently increasing its load [2] - A 550,000-ton/year MEG unit in Saudi Arabia has returned to normal operation, and another 450,000-ton/year MEG unit will undergo planned maintenance in Q1. Two 700,000-ton/year MEG units are in different states of parking and restart [2][3] - A 200,000-ton polyester unit in Wujiang and a 300,000-ton polyester bottle chip unit in South China have restarted, while a 200,000-ton direct-spun polyester staple fiber factory in Anhui plans to stop for maintenance on January 28 and restart in early March, and a 1.2-million-ton polyester bottle chip factory in Jiangyin plans to stop for maintenance in mid-January and restart in March [5] Price Quotes - **Futures**: PX, PTA, PF prices rose, SC price fell, and MEG price slightly increased. Some of their monthly spreads also changed [2] - **Spot**: PX, PTA, MEG, and Dated Brent prices increased, and the prices of other spots also changed to varying degrees [2] - **Spot Processing Fees**: PX-naphtha price spread, PTA processing fee, and short fiber processing fee increased, while bottle chip processing fee decreased, and MOPJ naphtha-Dubai crude oil price spread slightly increased [2] Trend Strength - The trend strength of PX, PTA, and MEG is all 1, indicating a neutral trend [5] Views and Suggestions - **PX**: High-level volatile market, pay attention to position management before the holiday. Supply is marginally loosening, and demand is decreasing, but the tight balance pattern persists [6] - **PTA**: High-level volatile market, pay attention to position management before the holiday. Supply is decreasing, demand is increasing, and inventory is continuously depleted [7] - **MEG**: Supply is expected to shrink, price range volatile market. Although the inventory accumulation pattern is difficult to change, the situation has marginally improved [8]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The short - term rebound of caustic soda is limited, and attention should be paid to the delivery pressure in January. Although caustic soda rebounds following alumina, the rebound space may be limited if manufacturers do not cut production. The 01 - contract caustic soda may have a large number of warehouse receipts [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - On December 26, 2025, the 01 - contract futures price of caustic soda was 2,268, the price of the cheapest deliverable 32% caustic soda in Shandong was 710, the spot 32% caustic soda in Shandong converted to the futures price was 2,219, and the basis was - 49 [1] Spot News - On December 26, taking Shandong as the benchmark, the overall performance of the Shandong market was average, some enterprises had poor sales, and prices continued to fall [1] Market Condition Analysis - On December 26, the National Development and Reform Commission's Industry Development Department proposed to strengthen management and optimize the layout of resource - constrained industries such as alumina and copper smelting. This news drove the sharp rebound of alumina, and caustic soda, as one of the raw materials of alumina, followed the rebound. - From a fundamental perspective, caustic soda still has a pattern of high production and high inventory. On the demand side, the oversupply situation of alumina has not changed in the short term, and the expectation of production cuts suppresses the stockpiling of caustic soda. Non - aluminum downstream industries face a seasonal decline in rigid demand, and exports are under pressure, so overall demand lacks support. On the supply side, winter is the off - season for chlor - alkali enterprise maintenance. With high production, there is great supply pressure, and enterprises face high - inventory pressure. Although caustic soda inventory decreased this week, there is still pressure to reduce inventory through price cuts before the Spring Festival [2] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of caustic soda is 0. The range of trend intensity is from - 2 to 2, where - 2 means the most bearish and 2 means the most bullish [3]

2025 年 12 月 29 日 合成橡胶：中枢上移 杨鈜汉 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021541 yanghonghan025588@gtjas.com 【基本面跟踪】 合成橡胶基本面数据 | 项目 | | 项目名称 | | 昨日数据 | 前日数据 | 变动幅度 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 顺丁橡胶主力 （02合约） | 日盘收盘价 成交量 | （元/吨） （手） | 11,635 196,070 | 11,285 154,890 | 350 41180 | | | | 持仓量 | （手） | 64,505 | 82,649 | -18144 | | | | 成交额 | （万元） | 1,126,455 | 877,526 | 248929 | | 价差数据 | 基差 | 山东顺丁-期货主力 | | -285 | -135 | -150 | | | 月差 | BR01-BR05 | | -95 | -120 | 25 | | 现货市场 | 顺丁价格 | 华北顺丁 | （民营） | 10,800 | 10,700 | | | | ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings were provided in the report. Core Views of the Report The report offers daily research and analysis on various futures commodities, presenting the latest market trends and price movements of each product, along with corresponding trading strategies. It also provides detailed fundamental data and macro - industry news for each commodity to assist investors in making decisions [1][2]. Summary by Commodity Precious Metals - **Gold**: Inflation is moderately declining, with a trend intensity of 0. The prices of domestic and international gold futures and spot markets showed varying degrees of increase, and ETF holdings slightly increased. Macro - industry news includes the upcoming 2026 National Two Sessions and China's continued implementation of an active fiscal policy [6][8]. - **Silver**: It is in a high - level adjustment phase, with a trend intensity of 0. Domestic and international silver prices increased significantly, and trading volume and positions changed. ETF holdings slightly decreased [6]. - **Platinum and Palladium**: Platinum has strong bullish sentiment, and palladium is in an upward - trending oscillation, both with a trend intensity of 1. The prices of platinum and palladium futures and spot markets showed significant increases, and trading volume and positions changed [23][25]. Base Metals - **Copper**: The strength of overseas spot markets supports price increases, with a trend intensity of 1. Domestic and international copper futures prices increased, and inventory decreased. Macro - industry news includes China's fiscal policy and production data from Peru and Kazakhstan [9][11]. - **Zinc**: It shows a slightly upward - trending oscillation, with a trend intensity of 0. Domestic and international zinc prices had slight changes, and inventory increased. Macro - industry news includes China's industrial profit data and fiscal policy [12][14]. - **Lead**: Weak demand restricts price increases, with a trend intensity of 0. Domestic and international lead prices increased slightly, and inventory decreased. Macro - industry news includes China's fiscal policy and industrial profit data [15][16]. - **Tin**: Supply is disrupted again, with a trend intensity of 1. Domestic and international tin prices increased, and inventory decreased. Macro - industry news includes the upcoming 2026 National Two Sessions and China's fiscal policy [18][20]. - **Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy**: Aluminum follows the upward trend of copper; alumina has a "self - competing" policy orientation; cast aluminum alloy follows electrolytic aluminum, all with a trend intensity of 1. The prices of aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy futures and spot markets had certain changes, and inventory and other data also changed [21][22]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: For nickel, there is a game between capital and industrial forces, and attention should be paid to the emergence of structural opportunities; for stainless steel, fundamentals limit its elasticity, and attention should be paid to Indonesian policy risks, both with a trend intensity of 0. The prices of nickel and stainless - steel futures and spot markets had certain changes, and there were many industry news items related to Indonesia [27][31]. Energy and Chemicals - **Carbonate Lithium**: The difference between reality and expectations increases the divergence between bulls and bears, with high - level oscillations, and a trend intensity of 0. The prices of carbonate lithium futures and spot markets increased, and inventory and other data changed. Macro - industry news includes the price increase of battery - grade carbonate lithium and the production line maintenance plan of Anda Technology [32][34]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Industrial silicon should pay attention to the boost from sentiment on the market; polysilicon oscillates within a range with large fluctuations, with a trend intensity of 1 for industrial silicon and 0 for polysilicon. The prices of industrial silicon and polysilicon futures and spot markets had certain changes, and inventory and other data also changed. Macro - industry news includes the price competition order compliance guidance in the photovoltaic industry [36][38]. - **Iron Ore**: It fluctuates repeatedly at a high level, with a trend intensity of 0. The price of iron - ore futures increased slightly, and spot prices also increased. Macro - industry news includes China's industrial profit data [39][40]. - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: Both are in low - level oscillations, with a trend intensity of 0. The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil futures decreased slightly, and spot prices also had certain changes. Macro - industry news includes production, inventory, and demand data in the steel industry [41][44]. - **Silicon Ferrosilicon and Manganese Ferrosilicon**: Both are subject to market information disturbances and have wide - range oscillations, with a trend intensity of 0. The prices of silicon ferrosilicon and manganese ferrosilicon futures decreased, and spot prices had certain changes. Macro - industry news includes the price changes of silicon ferrosilicon and manganese ferrosilicon [46][48]. - **Coke and Coking Coal**: Coke has an expectation of a fourth - round price reduction and fluctuates repeatedly; coking coal is affected by year - end production cuts and fluctuates repeatedly, both with a trend intensity of 0. The prices of coke and coking - coal futures decreased, and spot prices also had certain changes. Macro - industry news includes the CCI metallurgical coal index and production suspension in Yunnan [50][54]. - **Log**: It oscillates at a low level, with a trend intensity of 0. The price of log futures had slight changes, and spot prices were stable. Macro - industry news includes the LPR quotation [55][58]. - **Para - Xylene, PTA, and MEG**: Para - xylene and PTA are in high - level oscillation markets; MEG has limited upward space and still faces medium - term pressure, all with a trend intensity of 1. The prices of para - xylene, PTA, and MEG futures increased, and spot prices also had certain changes. Market dynamics include the restart of production devices [59][66]. - **Rubber**: It shows a slightly upward - trending oscillation, with a trend intensity of 1. The price of rubber increased, and the market had a positive sentiment. The import volume of natural rubber is expected to increase, and the inventory accumulation rate may slow down [67][70]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The price center moves upward, with a trend intensity of 0. The price of synthetic rubber increased, and inventory increased slightly. The short - term price center of butadiene - styrene rubber moves upward, but the near - term fundamentals limit the upward elasticity [71][73]. - **Asphalt**: The spot price is temporarily stable, with a trend intensity of 0. The price of asphalt futures had slight changes, and inventory and production data also changed. Market information includes production volume and inventory data [74][85]. - **LLDPE**: The basis is weak, and spot transactions are concentrated in the middle stream, with a trend intensity of 0. The price of LLDPE futures increased, and the basis weakened. The upstream price increased, and inventory shifted to the middle stream [86][88]. - **PP**: Multiple PDH units are planned to be overhauled in January, and the market stabilizes and oscillates, with a trend intensity of 0. The price of PP futures decreased slightly, and the basis was under pressure. The downstream demand was weak, and the PDH profit was at a low level [89][91]. - **Caustic Soda**: The short - term rebound height is limited, and attention should be paid to the delivery pressure in January, with a trend intensity of 0. The price of caustic - soda futures and spot prices had certain changes. The market followed the rebound of alumina, but the supply pressure was high [92][94]. - **Pulp**: It oscillates, with a trend intensity of 0. The price of pulp futures had slight changes, and spot prices were relatively stable. The market was affected by multiple factors, and there was no clear one - sided drive [96][101]. - **Methanol**: It oscillates, with a trend intensity of 0. The price of methanol futures decreased slightly, and inventory increased. The market oscillated in a weak fundamental and strong macro environment [102][106]. - **Urea**: It oscillates in the short term, with a trend intensity of 0. The price of urea futures decreased slightly, and inventory decreased. The market drive was neutral, and there was support at the bottom [107][110]. - **Styrene**: It oscillates in the short term, with a trend intensity of 0. The price of styrene futures increased, and the processing fee was expected to be at a medium - high level. The supply and demand structure supported the price, but there were also risks [111][114]. Agricultural Products - **LPG and Propylene**: LPG has a short - term tight supply, and attention should be paid to the realization of downward drivers; propylene's spot supply and demand are tightening, and there is an expectation of a stop - falling rebound, both with a trend intensity of 0. The prices of LPG and propylene futures had certain changes, and industry news includes CP paper - cargo prices and device maintenance plans [115][121]. - **PVC**: The short - term rebound height is limited, with a trend intensity of 0. The price of PVC futures and spot prices were relatively stable, and the market was in a high - production and high - inventory pattern [123][126]. - **Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Fuel oil mainly shows a night - session adjustment trend and may remain strong in the short term; low - sulfur fuel oil oscillates in a narrow range, and the spot price difference between high - and low - sulfur fuels in the external market is temporarily stable, both with a trend intensity of 0. The prices of fuel oil and low - sulfur fuel - oil futures had certain changes, and spot prices also changed [128]. - **Short - Fiber and Bottle Chips**: Both are in high - level oscillations, with a trend intensity of 0. The prices of short - fiber and bottle - chip futures increased, and spot prices also increased. The market trading atmosphere was good [130][131]. - **Offset Printing Paper**: It is advisable to wait and see, with a trend intensity of 0. The price of offset - printing - paper futures increased slightly, and spot prices were stable. The market trading was light, and the price was stable [133][136]. - **Pure Benzene**: It oscillates mainly in the short term, with a trend intensity of 0. The price of pure - benzene futures increased, and inventory increased. The market is expected to rebound after the first - quarter pressure [138][139]. - **Palm Oil and Soybean Oil**: Palm oil rebounds in the short - term rhythm with limited height; soybean oil has little driving force from US soybeans, and range operation is recommended, both with a trend intensity of 0. The prices of palm oil and soybean - oil futures increased slightly, and industry news includes production and export data of palm oil and soybean - growing conditions [141][146]. - **Soybean Meal and Soybeans**: Overnight US soybeans closed down, and Dalian soybean meal may adjust; soybeans oscillate, both with a trend intensity of 0. The price of soybean - meal futures increased, and spot prices also increased. The US soybean market was affected by multiple factors [147][149]. - **Corn**: Attention should be paid to the spot market, with a trend intensity of 0. The price of corn futures increased, and spot prices also increased. Market information includes corn prices in different regions [150][153]. - **Sugar**: The market atmosphere is strong, with a trend intensity of 0. The price of sugar futures increased, and industry news includes production and import data at home and abroad [154][157]. - **Cotton**: The area expectation is undetermined, and the futures price回调, with a trend intensity of 0. The price of cotton futures had certain changes, and spot prices increased. The spot trading of cotton was light, and the demand of the cotton - textile industry was weak [159][164]. - **Eggs**: It oscillates and adjusts, with a trend intensity of 0. The price of egg futures increased, and spot prices also increased. The market was relatively stable [166]. - **Hogs**: Contradictions continue to accumulate, and it is strong in the short term, with a trend intensity of 1. The price of hog futures and spot prices increased, and industry news includes warehouse - receipt registration and anti - dumping determination [168][172]. - **Peanuts**: Attention should be paid to the purchase of oil mills, with a trend intensity of 0. The price of peanut futures had slight changes, and spot prices were stable. The market supply and demand were relatively balanced [174][176].

Group 1: Report Title and Date - The report is titled "Cotton: Area Expectations Uncertain, Futures Prices Pull Back" and dated December 29, 2025 [1] Group 2: Fundamental Data Futures - CF2605 closed at 14,535 yuan/ton yesterday with a daily increase of 1.96%, and 14,475 yuan/ton in the night session with a decrease of 0.41%. Its trading volume was 971,786 lots, an increase of 519,098 lots from the previous day, and the open interest was 1,195,832 lots, an increase of 63,063 lots [2] - CY2603 closed at 20,585 yuan/ton yesterday with a daily increase of 0.86%, and 20,605 yuan/ton in the night session with an increase of 0.10%. Its trading volume was 19,645 lots, a decrease of 1,999 lots from the previous day, and the open interest was 23,202 lots, an increase of 1,045 lots [2] - ICE Cotton No.3 closed at 64.46 cents/pound yesterday with an increase of 0.40% [2] Warehouse Receipts - The number of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts was 4,853, an increase of 227 from the previous day, and the effective forecast was 3,834, a decrease of 46 [2] - The number of cotton yarn warehouse receipts was 19, a decrease of 3 from the previous day, and the effective forecast was 2, an increase of 20 [2] Spot Prices - The price of Northern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 15,366 yuan/ton, an increase of 280 yuan or 1.86% from the previous day [2] - The price of Southern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 15,380 yuan/ton, an increase of 280 yuan or 1.85% from the previous day [2] - The price in Shandong was 15,362 yuan/ton, an increase of 44 yuan or 0.29% from the previous day [2] - The price in Hebei was 15,360 yuan/ton, an increase of 22 yuan or 0.14% from the previous day [2] - The 3128B index was 15,317 yuan/ton, an increase of 38 yuan or 0.25% from the previous day [2] - The International Cotton Index: M: CNCottonM was 72.65 cents/pound, unchanged from the previous day [2] - The price of pure cotton carded yarn 32 - count was 21,140 yuan/ton, an increase of 120 yuan or 0.57% from the previous day [2] - The arrival price of pure cotton carded yarn 32 - count was 21,041 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2 yuan or 0.01% from the previous day [2] Spreads - The CF1 - 5 spread was 30 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan from the previous day [2] - The spread between Northern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton and CF605 was 830 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [2] Group 3: Macro and Industry News Domestic Cotton Spot - According to TTEB information, spot point - price trading of cotton was sluggish, and the basis changed little. The mainstream fixed - price quotes for 2025/26 North and South Xinjiang machine - picked cotton (3130/30, impurity within 3) in Shandong and Henan warehouses were around 15,700 - 15,900 yuan, with the basis still around CF01/05 + 1500 - 1550 for inland self - pick - up. The sales basis for 2025/26 Southern Xinjiang Kashgar machine - picked cotton (3129/29B, impurity within 3) was mostly at CF05 + 800 and above for Xinjiang self - pick - up [3] Domestic Cotton Textile Enterprises - According to TTEB information, the quotes of pure cotton yarn remained firm, but the weak demand situation was difficult to change, the problem of insufficient downstream orders could not be solved in the short term, and the impact of imported yarn continued [3] US Cotton - Last Friday, ICE cotton futures rose first and then fell. Opening under the influence of the sharp rise in Chinese cotton and the weakening of the US dollar, it once reached 64.81 cents/pound. However, the market was still observing whether the US cotton exports could continue to improve, so ICE cotton only closed slightly up 0.4% [3] Group 4: Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of cotton is 0, indicating a neutral view. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [6]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Industrial silicon: Pay attention to the boost of sentiment to the market [1] - Polysilicon: Range-bound with large fluctuations [1] 3. Summary of Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market**: Si2605 closing price is 8,880 yuan/ton, with a change of 45 yuan compared to T-1; PS2605 closing price is 58,955 yuan/ton, down 1,805 yuan from T-1 [1]. - **Basis**: Industrial silicon spot premium (against East China Si5530) is +370 yuan/ton, with a change of -45 yuan compared to T-1 [1]. - **Price**: The price of Xinjiang 99 silicon is 8700 yuan/ton, with no change compared to T-1; the price of polysilicon - N-type re - feedstock is 52400 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan from T-1 [1]. - **Profit**: Silicon factory profit (Xinjiang new standard 553) is - 2446.5 yuan/ton, up 45 yuan compared to T-1; polysilicon enterprise profit is 8.1 yuan/kg, up 0.4 yuan from T-1 [1]. - **Inventory**: Industrial silicon - social inventory (including warehouse receipt inventory) is 55.5 million tons, with an increase of 0.2 million tons compared to T-5 [1]. - **Raw Material Cost**: The price of Xinjiang silicon ore is 320 yuan/ton, with no change compared to T-1 [1]. Macro and Industry News - On December 26, the State Administration for Market Regulation conducted compliance guidance on price competition in the photovoltaic industry in Hefei, Anhui. It pointed out the price violations and risks in the photovoltaic industry and emphasized the importance of rectifying "involution - style" competition [1][3]. Trend Strength - Industrial silicon trend strength: 1; Polysilicon trend strength: 0. The range of trend strength is an integer in the [-2, 2] interval, where -2 means most bearish and 2 means most bullish [3].