Report Summary 1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - The difference between the reality and expectation of lithium carbonate increases the long - short divergence, and the price is in a high - level oscillation [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: For the 2601 contract, the closing price is 127,800, with changes of 6,260 compared to T - 1, 18,080 compared to T - 5, etc. The trading volume is 12,772, and the open interest is 21,877. For the 2605 contract, the closing price is 130,520, trading volume is 428,716, and open interest is 577,035. The warehouse receipt volume is 17,861 [1] - **Price Difference Data**: The basis between spot and 2601 contract is - 15,900, and between spot and 2605 contract is - 18,620; the difference between 2601 and 2605 contracts is - 2,720; the difference between electric carbon and industrial carbon is 2,650; the difference between spot and CIF is 22,771 [1] - **Raw Material and Lithium Salt Data**: The price of spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) is 1,490, lithium mica (2.0% - 2.5%) is 3,355. Battery - grade lithium carbonate is 111,900, industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 109,250, etc. [1] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Price Information**: SMM's battery - grade lithium carbonate index price is 111,682 yuan/ton, up 6,544 yuan/ton from the previous workday. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 111,900 yuan/ton, and industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 109,250 yuan/ton, both up 7,000 yuan/ton [2] - **Company News**: Anda Technology will conduct a one - month maintenance of some production lines from January 1, 2026, expected to reduce lithium iron phosphate production by 3,000 - 5,000 tons, with no significant impact on production and operation [3] - **Policy News**: The National Development and Reform Commission pointed out that for the "new three items" industries such as new energy vehicles, lithium batteries, and photovoltaics, the key is to standardize the order and innovate, including regulating market competition, strengthening supply chain governance, and increasing technological innovation [3] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend strength of lithium carbonate is 0, indicating a neutral view [3]

2025 年 12 月 29 日 短纤：高位震荡 20251229 瓶片：高位震荡 20251229 钱嘉寅 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0023476 qianjiayin@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 | | | 昨日 | 前日 | 变化 | | 昨日 | 前日 | 变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 短纤2601 | 6612 | 6496 | 116 | PF01-02 | -54 | -44 | -10 | | PF | 短纤2602 | 6666 | 6540 | 126 | PF02-03 | 6 | 56 | -50 | | | 短纤2603 | 6660 | 6484 | 176 | PF主力基差 | -96 | -50 | -46 | | | 短纤主力持仓量 | 240005 | 251946 | -11941 | 短纤华东现货价格 | 6.570 | 6.490 | 80 | | | 短纤主力成交量 | 200582 | 219428 | -18846 | 短纤产销率 | 90% | 56% | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided about the report industry investment rating 2. Core View of the Report - The report indicates that iron ore is experiencing repeated fluctuations at high levels [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamentals Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing price of I 2605 was 783.0 yuan/ton, up 4.5 yuan/ton or 0.58%. The position was 580,731 lots, with an increase of 13,627 lots [1] - **Spot Prices**: Imported ore prices increased slightly, with the price of Carajás fines (65%) rising to 874.0 yuan/ton, up 6.0 yuan/ton; PB fines (61.5%) rising to 797.0 yuan/ton, up 4.0 yuan/ton; Jinbuba fines (61%) rising to 750.0 yuan/ton, up 4.0 yuan/ton; and Super Special fines (56.5%) rising to 675.0 yuan/ton, up 2.0 yuan/ton. Domestic ore prices remained stable [1] - **Price Spreads**: The basis of I 2605 against Super Special fines decreased by 2.3 yuan/ton to 102.8 yuan/ton, and the basis against Jinbuba fines decreased by 0.2 yuan/ton to 48.7 yuan/ton. The spread between I 2605 and I 2609 increased by 0.5 yuan/ton to 22.0 yuan/ton, and the spread between I 2601 and I 2605 decreased by 1.0 yuan/ton to 18.5 yuan/ton. The price difference between Carajás fines and PB fines increased by 2.0 yuan/ton to 77.0 yuan/ton, and the price difference between PB fines and Super Special fines increased by 2.0 yuan/ton to 122.0 yuan/ton [1] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - From January to November, the total profit of industrial enterprises above the designated size in China reached 6,626.86 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.1%. Among them, the total profit of state - holding enterprises was 2,008.36 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 1.6%; that of joint - stock enterprises was 4,956.56 billion yuan, a decrease of 0.4%; that of foreign - invested and Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan - invested enterprises was 1,635.53 billion yuan, an increase of 2.4%; and that of private enterprises was 1,931.99 billion yuan, a decrease of 0.1% [1] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of iron ore is 0, indicating a neutral trend [1]

Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Group 2: Core View - The sentiment for platinum bulls remains strong, and palladium is expected to move upward in a volatile manner [1] Group 3: Summary Based on Related Catalogs 1. Fundamental Tracking - **Price and Increase**: Platinum futures 2606 closed at 705.30 with a 2.67% increase; gold exchange platinum at 662.15 with an 11.99% increase; New York platinum main - continuous (previous day) at 2513.90 with a 10.60% increase; London spot platinum (previous day) at 2459.50 with a 9.17% increase. Palladium futures 2606 closed at 515.65 with a - 2.53% change; RMB spot palladium at 429.00 with a 3.13% increase; New York palladium main - continuous (previous day) at 2060.50 with a 13.15% increase; London spot palladium (previous day) at 1925.00 with an 11.69% increase [1] - **Trading Volume and Position**: Guangdong platinum trading volume was 109,875 kg, a decrease of 117,791 kg from the previous day, and the position was 52,265 kg, an increase of 3,533 kg. NYMEX platinum trading volume was 83,211 kg, an increase of 236 kg, and the position was 103,710 kg, an increase of 75,569 kg. Guangdong palladium trading volume was 162,756 kg, an increase of 62,463 kg, and the position was 30,775 kg, an increase of 6,913 kg. NYMEX palladium trading volume was 46,864 kg, a decrease of 1,260 kg, and the position was 68,275 kg, an increase of 283 kg [1] - **ETF Position**: ETE platinum ETF position (previous day) was 3,275,432 ounces, an increase of 294 ounces. Palladium ETF position (previous day) was 1,143,186 ounces, an increase of 1,475 ounces [1] - **Inventory**: Guangdong platinum inventory was 1 kg (no change). NYMEX platinum inventory (previous day) was 646,896 ounces, an increase of 1,429 ounces. Guangdong palladium inventory was 1 kg (no change). NYMEX palladium inventory (previous day) was 198,040 ounces, an increase of 2,206 ounces [1] - **Price Spread**: PT9995 vs PT2606 price spread was - 43.15, an increase of 52.55 from the previous day. Guangdong platinum 2606 contract vs 2610 contract price spread was - 2.55, an increase of 0.85. The cost of buying Guangdong platinum 2606 and selling 2610 inter - period arbitrage was 8.64, an increase of 0.22. The price spread between the gold exchange platinum and London platinum was 108.10, an increase of 25.03. The price spread between RMB spot palladium and PD2606 was - 86.65, an increase of 26.40. Guangdong palladium 2606 contract vs 2610 contract price spread was - 6.35, a decrease of 0.40. The cost of buying Guangdong palladium 2606 and selling 2610 inter - period arbitrage was 6.39, a decrease of 0.16. The price spread between RMB spot palladium and London palladium was - 2, a decrease of 31.89 [1] - **Exchange Rate**: The US dollar index was 98.03 with a 0.13% increase; the US dollar to RMB (CNY spot) exchange rate was 7.01 with a - 0.01% change; the US dollar to offshore RMB (CNH spot) exchange rate was 7.00 with a 0.08% increase; the US dollar to RMB (6M forward) exchange rate was 6.93 with a 0.06% increase [1] 2. Macro and Industry News - As of December 27, the scale of Chinese ETFs reached 6.03 trillion yuan, breaking through the 6 - trillion - yuan mark for the first time in history [3] - From December 27 to 28, the National Fiscal Work Conference was held in Beijing [3] - Cambodia said it had reached a consensus with Thailand on the draft joint statement of the Cambodia - Thailand Border Commission meeting [3] 3. Trend Intensity - Platinum trend intensity is 1, and palladium trend intensity is 1. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 to 2, with - 2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [3] 4. Other News - The Russian Ministry of Defense reported that the Russian army had attacked energy facilities used by the Ukrainian defense department, missile engine component production workshops, and Ukrainian attack drone assembly bases, and also attacked 148 temporary deployment points of the Ukrainian armed forces [4] - On December 28, Ukrainian President Zelensky arrived in Florida, USA, to hold talks with Trump [4]

2025 年 12 月 29 日 铅：需求偏弱，限制价格上涨 季先飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012691 jixianfei@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 | | 昨日值 | 较前日变动/涨跌幅 | | 昨日值 | 较前日变动/涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪铅主力收盘价 | 17555 | 1.39% | 伦铅 3M 电子盘收 | 1999.5 | 0.83% | | （元/吨） | | | 盘（美元/吨） | | | | 沪铅主力成交量 | 58769 | 3669 | 伦铅成交量（手） | 3806 | -1794 | | （手） | | | | | | | 沪铅主力持仓量 | 55558 | -770 | 伦铅持仓量（手） | 178155 | 167 | | （手） | | | | | | | 上海 1# 铅升贴水 | 0 | -20 | LME CASH-3M 升 | -37.81 | 4.49 | | （元/吨） | | | 贴水（美元/吨） | | | | PB00-PB01（元/吨） | -15 | 20 | 进口升贴水（美 ...

2025 年 12 月 29 日 铜：海外现货走强，支撑价格上涨 季先飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012691 jixianfei@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 铜基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪铜主力合约 | 98,720 | 2.61% | 101380 | 2.69% | | | 伦铜3M电子盘 | 12,133 | 0.65% | - | - | | | | 昨日成交 | 较前日变动 | 昨日持仓 | 较前日变动 | | 期 货 | 沪铜指数 | 550,030 | 72,800 | 654,736 | 3,179 | | | 伦铜3M电子盘 | 18,195 | -8,111 | 340,000 | -2,248 | | | | 昨日期货库存 | 较前日变动 | 注销仓单比 | 较前日变动 | | | 沪铜 | 58,647 | -436 | - | - | | | 伦铜 | 157,025 | -1,550 | 29.63% | -1.19% | | | ...

所长 早读 国泰君安期货 2025-12-29 期 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 期货研究 2025-12-29 所长 早读 今 日 发 现 全国财政工作会议：2026 年继续实施更加积极的财政政策 观点分享： 12 月 27 日至 28 日，全国财政工作会议在北京召开。会议指出，2026 年继续实施更加 积极的财政政策。一是扩大财政支出盘子，确保必要支出力度。二是优化政府债券工具组 合，更好发挥债券效益。三是提高转移支付资金效能，增强地方自主可用财力。四是持续优 化支出结构，强化重点领域保障。五是加强财政金融协同，放大政策效能。 所 长 首 推 | 板块 | 关注指数 | | --- | --- | | PX | ★★★★ | PX：高位震荡市，节前注意仓位管理。供应端边际宽松，目前中化泉州 80 万吨/年 PX 装置 检修中，大连福佳一套 100 万吨/年 PX 装置正在重启，天津石化 38 万吨/年 PX 装置 23 日 停车，其他 PX 装置基本保持高负荷运行，国内 PX 开工在 88.2%（+0.1%）。海外装置方 面，PTTG54 万吨装置近期重启，GS55 万吨装置计划 1 月 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - On December 27, all four major stock index futures contracts for the current month rose. IF increased by 0.44%, IH by 0.46%, IC by 0.66%, and IM by 0.47%. The total trading volume of stock index futures rebounded on the trading day, indicating an increase in investors' trading enthusiasm. The total positions of IF, IH, IC, and IM also increased. The report suggests that stock index futures may continue to be relatively strong [1][2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Stock Index Futures Data Tracking - **Closing Price and Fluctuation**: The closing prices of major stock indices such as CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 all increased on December 27. The corresponding futures contracts also showed varying degrees of increase, with CSI 500 futures having a relatively large increase [1]. - **Basis**: The basis of each futures contract varies. For example, the basis of IF2601 is -0.24, and that of IH2601 is 2.6 [1]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume and open interest of each futures contract generally increased. For example, the trading volume of IF2601 increased by 7,560, and the open interest increased by 1,048 [1]. 3.2 Trading Volume and Open Interest Changes - **Trading Volume**: The total trading volume of IF increased by 31,729 lots, IH by 18,675 lots, IC by 41,554 lots, and IM by 41,783 lots [2]. - **Open Interest**: The total open interest of IF increased by 16,208 lots, IH by 9,590 lots, IC by 25,777 lots, and IM by 21,680 lots [2]. 3.3 Top 20 Member Position Changes - The long and short positions of the top 20 members in each futures contract have different changes. For example, in IF2601, the long positions increased by 753, and the short positions increased by 807 [5]. 3.4 Trend Strength - The trend strength of IF and IH is 1, and that of IC and IM is also 1. The trend strength ranges from -2 to 2, with -2 indicating the most bearish and 2 indicating the most bullish [6]. 3.5 Important Drivers - **Fiscal Policy**: The National Fiscal Work Conference proposed to continue to implement a more proactive fiscal policy in 2026, including expanding fiscal expenditure, optimizing government bond tool combinations, and improving transfer payment efficiency [6]. - **Venture Capital Fund**: The National Venture Capital Guidance Fund was officially launched, with a fiscal investment of 100 billion yuan at the national level and expected to leverage trillions of yuan of social capital at the regional and sub - fund levels, focusing on strategic emerging and future industries [6]. - **Regulatory Policies**: The central bank and relevant departments will improve the policy environment for long - term investment in A - shares, promote the improvement of listed company quality, and strengthen supervision [7]. - **Industrial Policies**: The National Conference on Industry and Information Technology deployed key tasks for 2026, including rectifying "involution - style" competition, supporting AI research, and promoting new business commercialization [7]. 3.6 Market Performance - **A - share Market**: A - shares showed a volatile trend with increased trading volume. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.10% to 3,963.68 points, achieving an 8 - day consecutive increase. The Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.54%, and the ChiNext Index rose 0.14%. The trading volume reached 2.18 trillion yuan [7]. - **US Stock Market**: The three major US stock indices closed slightly lower. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.04%, the S&P 500 Index fell 0.03%, and the Nasdaq Composite Index fell 0.09%. Factors such as the adjustment of the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations, extreme weather, and increased market risk - aversion sentiment suppressed the US stock market [8].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - PX: High-level volatile market [1][6] - PTA: High-level volatile market [1][7] - MEG: Limited upside space, medium-term pressure, price range volatile market [1][8] Core Views - PX is expected to maintain a high-level volatile market due to increased supply and decreased demand, but the tight balance pattern cannot be falsified for now [6] - PTA is in a high-level volatile market with supply reduction and demand increase, leading to continuous inventory depletion and positive impacts on monthly spreads and basis [7] - MEG is in a price range volatile market. Although the inventory accumulation pattern is difficult to change, the supply is expected to shrink, and the inventory accumulation expectation has marginally improved [8] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Dynamics - An 700,000-ton PX unit in the Northeast is currently restarting, and its capacity will expand to 1 million tons/year after restart [2] - A 3.6-million-ton PTA unit in East China is currently increasing its load [2] - A 550,000-ton/year MEG unit in Saudi Arabia has returned to normal operation, and another 450,000-ton/year MEG unit will undergo planned maintenance in Q1. Two 700,000-ton/year MEG units are in different states of parking and restart [2][3] - A 200,000-ton polyester unit in Wujiang and a 300,000-ton polyester bottle chip unit in South China have restarted, while a 200,000-ton direct-spun polyester staple fiber factory in Anhui plans to stop for maintenance on January 28 and restart in early March, and a 1.2-million-ton polyester bottle chip factory in Jiangyin plans to stop for maintenance in mid-January and restart in March [5] Price Quotes - **Futures**: PX, PTA, PF prices rose, SC price fell, and MEG price slightly increased. Some of their monthly spreads also changed [2] - **Spot**: PX, PTA, MEG, and Dated Brent prices increased, and the prices of other spots also changed to varying degrees [2] - **Spot Processing Fees**: PX-naphtha price spread, PTA processing fee, and short fiber processing fee increased, while bottle chip processing fee decreased, and MOPJ naphtha-Dubai crude oil price spread slightly increased [2] Trend Strength - The trend strength of PX, PTA, and MEG is all 1, indicating a neutral trend [5] Views and Suggestions - **PX**: High-level volatile market, pay attention to position management before the holiday. Supply is marginally loosening, and demand is decreasing, but the tight balance pattern persists [6] - **PTA**: High-level volatile market, pay attention to position management before the holiday. Supply is decreasing, demand is increasing, and inventory is continuously depleted [7] - **MEG**: Supply is expected to shrink, price range volatile market. Although the inventory accumulation pattern is difficult to change, the situation has marginally improved [8]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The short - term rebound of caustic soda is limited, and attention should be paid to the delivery pressure in January. Although caustic soda rebounds following alumina, the rebound space may be limited if manufacturers do not cut production. The 01 - contract caustic soda may have a large number of warehouse receipts [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - On December 26, 2025, the 01 - contract futures price of caustic soda was 2,268, the price of the cheapest deliverable 32% caustic soda in Shandong was 710, the spot 32% caustic soda in Shandong converted to the futures price was 2,219, and the basis was - 49 [1] Spot News - On December 26, taking Shandong as the benchmark, the overall performance of the Shandong market was average, some enterprises had poor sales, and prices continued to fall [1] Market Condition Analysis - On December 26, the National Development and Reform Commission's Industry Development Department proposed to strengthen management and optimize the layout of resource - constrained industries such as alumina and copper smelting. This news drove the sharp rebound of alumina, and caustic soda, as one of the raw materials of alumina, followed the rebound. - From a fundamental perspective, caustic soda still has a pattern of high production and high inventory. On the demand side, the oversupply situation of alumina has not changed in the short term, and the expectation of production cuts suppresses the stockpiling of caustic soda. Non - aluminum downstream industries face a seasonal decline in rigid demand, and exports are under pressure, so overall demand lacks support. On the supply side, winter is the off - season for chlor - alkali enterprise maintenance. With high production, there is great supply pressure, and enterprises face high - inventory pressure. Although caustic soda inventory decreased this week, there is still pressure to reduce inventory through price cuts before the Spring Festival [2] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of caustic soda is 0. The range of trend intensity is from - 2 to 2, where - 2 means the most bearish and 2 means the most bullish [3]