Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The document does not provide an investment rating for the industry. 2. Core Viewpoints - Aluminum is following the upward trend of copper, but its price elasticity is limited by weak spot fundamentals. The price may experience a "dip" due to the decline in photovoltaic enterprise production, but the downside is limited if the risk appetite of traditional non - ferrous sectors remains strong in Q1 [3]. - Alumina once hit the daily limit on Friday due to the policy guidance. However, the market turnaround depends on significant supply - side clearance and re - balance of supply and demand. The mid - term strategy is to find selling points during price rebounds [4]. 3. Section Summaries 3.1 Price and Market Performance - **Aluminum Price**: Aluminum is following the upward trend of traditional non - ferrous and precious metals, but the weak spot fundamentals limit its price elasticity. The short - term demand is weak, with significant inventory accumulation and expanding spot discounts [3]. - **Alumina Price**: Alumina once hit the daily limit on Friday due to policy guidance. The price is affected by supply - demand imbalance, short - position trading factors, and cost considerations. The price may fluctuate more at lower levels, and the mid - term view is to sell on rebounds [4]. - **Futures Data**: This week, the trading volume of most aluminum - related futures increased, and the positions showed differentiation. The price of most futures rose, and the inventory and price differences also changed [5]. 3.2 Trading - end Analysis - **Price Differences** - **Spot - Futures Price Differences**: This week, the spot premiums of both A00 aluminum and alumina weakened. For example, the average SMM A00 aluminum spot premium decreased from - 50 yuan/ton to - 190 yuan/ton, and the Shandong alumina premium to the current month decreased from 156 yuan/ton to - 147 yuan/ton [10]. - **Monthly Price Differences**: The near - month price difference of Shanghai aluminum weakened [11]. - **Volume and Open Interest** - The open interest of the Shanghai aluminum main contract decreased slightly, while the trading volume increased slightly. - The open interest and trading volume of the alumina main contract increased significantly, and the open interest remained at a historical high [14]. - **Open Interest - to - Inventory Ratio**: The open interest - to - inventory ratio of Shanghai aluminum decreased, while that of alumina increased slightly and remained at a historically low level [19]. 3.3 Inventory Analysis - **Bauxite**: As of December 26, the port inventory of imported bauxite decreased, and the inventory days remained stable. In November, the bauxite inventory of alumina enterprises decreased. The Guinea port shipment volume decreased, while the Australian port shipment volume increased. The Guinea sea - floating inventory increased, and the Australian sea - floating inventory decreased [25][30][31]. - **Alumina**: The total national inventory and the all - caliber inventory of alumina continued to accumulate. The factory inventory, electrolytic aluminum plant inventory, and platform/in - transit inventory increased, while the port inventory decreased [45][52]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: As of December 25, the social inventory of aluminum ingots increased by 51,000 tons to 612,000 tons this week [53]. - **Processed Products** - **Aluminum Rod**: This week, the spot inventory and factory inventory of aluminum rods showed differentiation [59]. - **Aluminum Profiles and Plate - Foil**: In November, the inventory ratios of both raw materials and finished products of aluminum profiles and plate - foil increased slightly [62]. 3.4 Production Analysis - **Bauxite**: In November, the domestic bauxite supply was mainly stable, with a slight decline in SMM - caliber domestic production. The supply of imported bauxite was an important factor driving the growth of the total supply. By province, the production in some regions decreased, while in others it increased [67][68]. - **Alumina**: The capacity utilization rate remained stable. As of December 26, the total operating capacity decreased by 300,000 tons. This week, the domestic metallurgical - grade alumina production was 1.838 million tons, an increase of 3,000 tons from last week. The supply - side surplus situation has not changed [72]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: As of November, the operating capacity remained at a high level, and the capacity utilization rate was high due to profit restoration. As of December 11, the weekly production was 856,700 tons, an increase of 400 tons from last week. The aluminum - water ratio decreased seasonally [75]. - **Downstream Processing** - **Output**: This week, the output of recycled aluminum rods, aluminum rods, and aluminum plate - foil decreased [78]. - **开工率**: The operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream leading enterprises decreased by 0.7%. By sector, the operating rates of aluminum plate - strip, aluminum foil, aluminum profiles, and aluminum cables decreased, while the operating rate of recycled aluminum alloy increased [79][82][84]. 3.5 Profit Analysis - **Alumina**: In November, the alumina profit continued to decline slightly, and the smelting profit was under pressure. By province, the profits in Shandong, Shanxi, and Henan remained stable, while the profit in Guangxi was better [86]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The profit remained at a high level, but uncertain factors such as the complex global macro - economic situation and overseas geopolitical conflicts interfered with market expectations [99]. - **Downstream Processing**: The processing fee of aluminum rods decreased by 20 yuan/ton this week, and the downstream processing profit remained at a low level [100]. 3.6 Consumption Analysis - **Import and Export** - **Import**: The import losses of alumina and Shanghai aluminum have widened [109]. - **Export**: In November 2025, the total export volume of aluminum products increased slightly, but the export demand is affected by trade policy adjustments [111]. - **Consumption Volume**: The commercial housing transaction area is at a low level, while the automobile production increased month - on - month [114].

国泰君安期货研究所 黑色金属 林小春 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0000526 张广硕 投资咨询从业资格号： Z0020198 李亚飞 投资咨询从业资格号： Z0021184 刘豫武 投资咨询从业资格号： Z0023649 金园园 （联系人）从业资格号：F03134630 日期： 2025年12月28日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 动力煤产业链周度报告 01 动力煤基本面数据 动力煤坑口及港口价格重心下移，跌幅或受市场影响收紧 资料来源 Wind 、Mysteel iFind国泰君安期货研究所 ： 资料来源： Wind 、Mysteel、iFind、国泰君安期货研究所 500 600 700 800 900 1000 1100 1200 中国沿海电煤采购价格指数:成交价(Q5500) 中国沿海电煤采购价格指数:成交价(Q5000) 400 450 500 550 600 650 700 750 800 元/吨 大同南郊动力煤-5500-车板含税价 鄂尔多斯-电煤-5500-坑口含税价 榆林烟煤末-6000-坑口含税 ...

Report Information - Report Title: Synthetic Rubber Weekly Report [1] - Report Date: December 28, 2025 [1] - Analyst: Yang Honghan [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - Synthetic rubber is expected to remain at a high level before the holiday. The price center of butadiene rubber has moved up, but the weakening near - term fundamentals suppress the upward elasticity of the price. Butadiene is expected to rebound in the short - term but face high supply pressure in the medium - term [4][5] Summary by Directory 1. This Week's Synthetic Rubber Viewpoint - **Supply**: During the cycle, the high - cis butadiene rubber units of Maoming Petrochemical and Dushanzi Petrochemical continued to be shut down, while other mainstream units operated stably. The production of high - cis butadiene rubber was 30,800 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.065%. The capacity utilization rate was 76.76%, a week - on - week increase of 0.5 percentage points. It is expected that there will be limited changes in domestic butadiene rubber units in the next cycle [4] - **Demand** - **Rigid demand**: The capacity utilization rates of tire sample enterprises showed mixed trends. The production scheduling of most semi - steel tire enterprises was stable, and some enterprises increased production slightly. Some all - steel tire enterprises carried out maintenance, dragging down the overall capacity utilization rate. It is expected that the capacity utilization rate of tire sample enterprises may still decline in the next cycle [4] - **Substitute demand**: The spread between the NR - BR main contracts remained at a high level, and the substitute demand remained strong. Therefore, the overall demand side of butadiene rubber maintained a high year - on - year growth rate [4] - **Inventory**: As of December 24, 2025, the domestic butadiene rubber inventory was 34,500 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.56%. The price center of butadiene rubber rose slightly this cycle. The market transactions were concentrated in low - price purchases by arbitrageurs. Traders were cautious about raising prices, while terminal purchases remained weak. The inventory level of sample production enterprises increased, and the inventory of some trading enterprises decreased [4] - **Valuation**: The static valuation range of butadiene rubber futures is 10,700 - 11,500 yuan/ton. Due to the strong expectation of butadiene in futures trading, the upper limit of the static valuation fails periodically. The valuation logic has shifted from cost - side support to NR - BR spread support [4] - **Strategy** - **Unilateral**: The short - term oscillation center moves up. The upper pressure is 11,500 - 11,600 yuan/ton (moving up dynamically following the spot price of butadiene rubber), and the lower support is 10,700 - 10,800 yuan/ton (supported by the NR - BR spread and butadiene cost) [5] - **Cross - variety**: The NR - BR spread gradually changes from narrowing to an oscillatory pattern [5] 2. This Week's Butadiene Viewpoint - **Supply**: The estimated weekly output of Chinese butadiene industry sample enterprises in this cycle was 112,500 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.09%. It is expected that the weekly output of Chinese butadiene sample enterprises next week will be about 113,400 tons, mainly due to the resumption of production at Dongming Petrochemical [7] - **Inventory**: In this cycle, domestic butadiene inventory increased. The total inventory of samples increased by 10.06% week - on - week. Among them, the inventory of sample enterprises decreased by 1.06% week - on - week, and the inventory of sample ports increased by 20.28% week - on - week. There were imported ships arriving at the port this week, and there are still expectations of ocean - going ships arriving at the port later [7] - **Demand** - **Synthetic rubber**: In the medium - term, the operating rates of butadiene rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber will remain high, and the demand for butadiene will remain high year - on - year. In the short - term, with the decrease in butadiene rubber unit maintenance in December, the rigid demand for butadiene in synthetic rubber is expected to increase [9] - **ABS**: The inventory pressure is relatively high, and the demand for butadiene is expected to remain at a constant level with limited incremental growth [9] - **SBS**: The operating rate increased slightly, and the rigid demand for butadiene remained stable with limited changes [9] - **Viewpoint**: The relatively low short - term absolute price drives downstream periodic restocking, and the transactions have improved. In addition, the prices of butadiene in Asia and Europe are relatively strong. Overall, butadiene will rebound in the short - term but face high supply pressure in the medium - term [7] 3. Butadiene Fundamentals - **Capacity**: To match the expansion of downstream industries such as ABS, SBS, styrene - butadiene, and butadiene rubber, the capacity of butadiene is also expanding continuously, and the expansion speed and amplitude are slightly faster than those of downstream industries in stages [14][16] - **Supply - side** - **Operating rate**: Data shows the weekly operating rate and production volume trends of butadiene in China from 2019 - 2025 [18] - **Maintenance situation**: Multiple enterprises have carried out or are planning to carry out unit maintenance, involving different maintenance capacities and time periods [19] - **Net import volume**: Data presents the monthly import volume, net import volume, and import profit of butadiene in China from 2008 - 2025 [20] - **Demand - side** - **Butadiene rubber**: The capacity will increase by 200,000 tons in 2025 and 190,000 tons in 2026 [22] - **Styrene - butadiene rubber**: The capacity will increase by 60,000 tons in 2025 and 220,000 tons in 2026 [24][25] - **ABS**: The capacity is expected to increase by 1.635 million tons in 2025 and 1.3 million tons in 2026 [32][34] - **SBS**: The capacity will increase by 360,000 tons in 2025 and 55,000 tons in 2026 [36][37] - **Inventory - side**: Data shows the weekly enterprise inventory, port inventory, and total inventory trends of butadiene in China from 2015 - 2025 [41][42][43] 4. Synthetic Rubber Fundamentals - **Butadiene Rubber - Supply** - **Production**: Data shows the weekly production and daily operating rate trends of high - cis butadiene rubber in China from 2020 - 2025. Some enterprises' units are in normal operation, while some are under maintenance or restarting [47][48] - **Cost and profit**: Data shows the daily theoretical production cost, profit, and gross profit margin trends of butadiene rubber in China from 2015 - 2025 [49][50][51] - **Import and export**: Data presents the monthly import and export volume and weekly apparent demand trends of butadiene rubber in China from 2015 - 2025 [52][53][54] - **Inventory**: Data shows the weekly enterprise inventory, futures inventory, and trader inventory trends of butadiene rubber in China from 2015 - 2025 [56][57] - **Butadiene Rubber - Demand - Tire**: Data shows the inventory and operating rate trends of all - steel and semi - steel tires in Shandong Province from 2018 - 2025 [60][61]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The upward potential of coking coal and coke before the Spring Festival is expected to be a weak rebound. Recent price fluctuations are mainly influenced by news rather than fundamental factors, and the sustainability of these fluctuations is questionable. - The current market trading logic focuses on several aspects: the multi - short game near the delivery date, the topic of anti - involution in the coal industry, and the expected tightening of imported coal supply, though the authenticity of the latter has not been confirmed. - Given the current supply - demand imbalance and the limited driving force of the winter storage replenishment market, sentiment can amplify price fluctuations. It is advisable to consider gradually closing out the previous 1 - 5 inverse spreads [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Coal and Coke Weekly Outlook 3.1.1 Supply - Some domestic coal mines have reduced production and carried out maintenance after completing their annual production tasks, leading to a significant short - term decline in output. Pit - mouth coal prices are supported by strong sentiment. The market trading atmosphere is cautious, with low speculative purchasing by traders and only rigid demand from end - users. High - priced coking coal resources face significant resistance in transactions. - In terms of imports, port trading enterprises are experiencing poor sales, and downstream market inquiries are weak. There are still expectations of price cuts in the domestic coking coal and coke market. However, the Ganqimaodu port continues to operate at a high level of customs clearance, and the port inventory has exceeded 3.8 million tons [3]. 3.1.2 Demand - Pig iron production remains at a low level, with an average daily output of 2.2658 million tons this week. The winter storage market has been delayed, and the supply - demand imbalance in the coke market persists. There is still a possibility of a fourth round of price cuts [6]. 3.1.3 Inventory - This week, the total coking coal inventory increased by 909,000 tons week - on - week, with inventory accumulation in all sectors, mainly in the upstream and intermediate sectors. Near the end of the year, port customs clearance remains high, and some port inventories have been transferred to coal washing plants. The coking coal inventory of coal washing plants increased by 253,000 tons week - on - week, and the total inventory of the three ports increased by 259,000 tons [6]. 3.1.4 Market Data | Fundamental Changes | Coal | Coke | | --- | --- | --- | | Supply | FW raw coal 8.3473 million tons (- 58,200 tons); FW clean coal 4.2769 million tons (- 43,900 tons) | Independent coking plants' daily average output 627,000 tons (- 3,000 tons); Steel mills and coking enterprises' daily average output 468,000 tons (+ 3,000 tons) | | Demand | Pig iron production 2.2658 million tons (+ 300 tons) | Pig iron production 2.2658 million tons (+ 300 tons) | | Inventory | MS total inventory + 909,000 tons; Mine raw coal - 34,200 tons; Independent coking + 34,000 tons; Mine clean coal + 17,400 tons; Steel mill coking + 17,000 tons; Port + 234,000 tons; Port + 259,000 tons | MS total inventory + 144,000 tons; Independent coking + 11,000 tons; Steel mill + 85,000 tons; Port + 47,000 tons | | Profit | Commodity coal 515 yuan/ton (- 3 yuan/ton) | Average profit of coking enterprises 34 yuan/ton (- 26 yuan/ton) | | Warehouse Receipt | Mongolian 5 coal warehouse receipt in Tangshan 1,159 yuan/ton | Rizhao quasi - first - grade coke warehouse receipt 1,600 yuan/ton | [8] 3.2 Coking Coal Fundamental Data 3.2.1 Supply - Weekly and monthly data on coking coal supply from domestic mines and Mongolian coal customs clearance are presented, including the production of raw coal, clean coal, and the customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal at various ports [10][12][14]. 3.2.2 Inventory - Pit - mouth inventory: This week, the raw coal inventory of sample mines decreased by 34,200 tons to 2.0466 million tons, while the clean coal inventory increased by 17,400 tons to 1.3489 million tons. - Port inventory: This week, the coking coal port inventory was 2.995 million tons, an increase of 133,000 tons week - on - week. - Coking plant inventory: Data on the inventory and available days of coking coal in coking plants are provided, including overall and regional data. - Steel mill inventory: Data on the inventory and available days of coking coal in steel mills are provided, including overall and regional data [23][25][28][33]. 3.3 Coke Fundamental Data 3.3.1 Supply - Data on the capacity utilization rate and production of coke in coking plants and steel mills are presented, including overall and regional data [37][43][45][47]. 3.3.2 Inventory - Data on the inventory and available days of coke in coking plants, steel mills, and the overall sample are provided, including overall and regional data [49][50][55]. 3.3.3 Demand - Pig iron production is used as an indicator of coke demand, with an average daily output of 2.2658 million tons this week [6]. 3.3.4 Profit - Data on the profit of coke production, including the disk profit of coke futures and the average profit per ton of independent coking enterprises, are presented [60]. 3.4 Coal and Coke Futures and Spot Prices 3.4.1 Futures - Data on the futures prices, trading volumes, and open interests of coking coal 2601 and 2605 contracts, as well as coke 2601 and 2605 contracts, are provided, including daily price changes [64][68]. 3.4.2 Month - to - Month Spread - Data on the month - to - month spreads of coking coal and coke futures are presented [71]. 3.4.3 Spot - Spot prices of different types of coking coal and coke are provided, including the car - board price of coking coal and the ex - factory price of coke [73]. 3.4.4 Basis - Data on the basis of coking coal and coke futures are presented [76][77].

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Next week (Dec 29 - Dec 31), the prices of Dalian soybean meal and soybean futures are expected to fluctuate, and investors should avoid risks during the New Year's Day holiday [5] - For soybean meal, the domestic market is strong due to customs clearance concerns and positive commodity - market sentiment, but attention should also be paid to the dynamics of US soybeans. US soybeans are affected by China's purchases and South American weather [5] - For soybeans, the stable - to - strong spot market and the state reserve's price - increase acquisition are positive factors, while state reserve auctions may suppress short - term upward momentum, so the futures price is expected to fluctuate [5] Group 3: Summary of Market Conditions Last Week International Soybean Market - US soybean futures prices fluctuated last week (Dec 22 - Dec 26), with a slight upward trend. The 03 - month contract of US soybean and US soybean meal had a weekly increase of 1.16% and 2.02% respectively on Dec 26 [1] - China's limited purchases of US soybeans are neutral - to - negative. On Dec 22, China bought 39.6 tons of US soybeans [1] - The import cost of Brazilian soybeans decreased week - on - week, which is negative. As of Dec 26, the average CNF premium and import cost of Brazilian soybeans for Feb 2026 delivery decreased [1] - Some regions in Brazil started harvesting soybeans. AgRural raised the estimated output of Brazilian soybeans in the 2025/26 season to 180.4 million tons [1] - Argentina's soybean planting progress was slow, but the early growth was good. As of Dec 24, the planting progress was about 75.5%, and the excellent - good rate was 67% [1] - The weather forecast for South American soybean - producing areas shows that precipitation in Brazilian main - producing areas will be basically normal, and in Argentina, it will be scarce in the next two weeks [1] Domestic Soybean Meal Market - Domestic soybean meal futures prices were strongly fluctuating last week (Dec 22 - Dec 26), with a 2.01% increase in the m2605 contract on Dec 26 [1] - The trading volume, pick - up volume, and basis of domestic soybean meal increased week - on - week. The inventory was basically flat week - on - week but increased year - on - year. The soybean crushing volume decreased week - on - week and is expected to decline next week [1][3] Domestic Soybean Market - Domestic soybean futures prices rose slightly last week (Dec 22 - Dec 26), with a 1.08% increase in the a2605 contract on Dec 26 [1] - The domestic soybean price was stable - to - strong. The state reserve raised the purchase price, and the auction results were good. The trading volume of Northeast soybeans in the northern market was okay, while it was slow in the southern market [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall view of US soybeans is that there is no basis for a bull market due to a bumper harvest in South America, but the downside is limited as demand is expected to improve. The market is expected to be range - bound with an upward bias, trading between 1000 - 1200 cents per bushel [5]. - There are both bearish and bullish factors. Bearish factors include the possible weakening of the Trump administration's support for biodiesel blending policies after China's purchase of US soybeans, the return of the rainy season in Brazil with improved precipitation during the critical crop - growing season, and the continued increase in Brazil's planting area in the 2025/26 season. Bullish factors are the expected purchase of 12 million tons of US soybeans by China before February 2026 and over 25 million tons per year for the next three years, the initial signs of drought in southern Argentina, and the possibility of South American soybean production reduction due to La Niña weather [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Price - **US Soybeans**: This week, the continuous contract of US soybeans closed at 1058.75 cents per bushel, up 9.5 cents per bushel. The rise was driven by the increase in domestic Chinese commodities, while the lack of large - scale drought in South America limited the upside. Next week, attention should be paid to China's procurement rhythm, South American weather, and biodiesel policy progress [9]. - **US Soybean Meal**: This week, the price of US soybean meal closed at $303.7 per short ton, up $6.1 per short ton. The increase was due to China's continuous purchase of US soybeans and the sharp rise in the Chinese soybean meal market, which led to a rebound in the global soybean meal price [14]. - **US Soybean Oil**: This week, US soybean oil fluctuated slightly higher, closing at 48.72 cents per pound, down 0.82 cents per pound. The rebound was driven by the rise in soybeans, but concerns about the biodiesel outlook and the decline in crude oil prices put upward pressure on the price [19]. - **Regional Prices**: As of December 19, the price of soybeans in the US Gulf was $11.29 per bushel, down $0.21 from the previous week; the price of soybeans in Iowa was $9.8 per bushel, down $0.26 from the previous week. On December 19, the spot price in Mato Grosso, Brazil, rose to 116.36 reais per bag, and as of December 26, the spot price at Brazilian ports slightly declined to 142.62 reais per bag [21][23][25][27]. 3.2 Supply Factors - **Drought in the US**: The drought situation in US soybean - producing areas remained stable, with a drought rate of 66%, compared to 68% last week [30]. - **South American Weather and Planting Progress**: Brazil's precipitation is expected to be scarce in the next two weeks except in the southern region. The sowing progress of soybeans in Brazil as of December 20 was 97.6%, close to completion. In Argentina, precipitation is expected to be scarce in the central and southern regions in the next two weeks, while it will be abundant in the north [32][44][49]. 3.3 Demand Factors - **Soybean Crushing Profit**: As of December 12, the US soybean crushing profit was $2.33 per bushel, compared to $2.45 last week [52]. - **Export Data**: On December 12, the weekly export volume of US soybeans was 721,200 tons, compared to 1.0711 million tons last week. On December 19, the weekly export inspection volume was 870,000 tons, compared to 810,000 tons last week. The net sales for this year were 2.396 million tons, compared to 1.552 million tons last week. The net sales for the next year were 0 tons, the same as last week. The quantity shipped to China on December 19 was 386,000 tons, compared to 202,000 tons last week [54][56][58][60][62]. 3.4 Other Factors - **ENSO Index**: The latest ENSO (NINO3.4 anomaly index) value was - 1.27, remaining in the La Niña range [65]. - **Cost Factors**: The cost of soybean production in Brazil and the US is expected to rise slightly. In the US, the cost of soybean production continues to increase, while in Brazil, the cost has decreased year - on - year [67][69][71][72]. - **CFTC Positions**: As of December 16, the net long position of soybeans was 179,000 contracts, compared to 211,600 contracts last week; the net short position of soybean oil was 67,000 contracts, compared to 103,000 contracts last week; the net long position of soybean meal was 53,000 contracts, compared to 227,000 contracts last week [73][74][76].

投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020481 日期：2025年12月28日 烧碱：短期反弹高度有限，关注1月交割压力 PVC：短期反弹高度有限 国泰君安期货研究所·陈嘉昕 4 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint CONTENTS 观点综述 01 烧碱价格及价差 02 烧碱供应 03 烧碱需求 04 PVC价格及价差 05 PVC供需 06 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 2 观点综述 1 烧碱观点：短期反弹高度有限，关注1月交割压力 | 供应 | 中国20万吨及以上烧碱样本企业产能平均利用率为86.0%，较上周环比+1.3%。分区域来看，山东区域负荷先增后降，均值环比有所提升； | | --- | --- | | | 江西伴随着检修设备恢复带动开机提升；河南负荷小幅下滑。下周国内氯碱设备检修及重启并存，预估整体开机仍小幅上移。 | | 需求 | 氧化铝方面，短期因"反内卷"消息出现反弹，但基本面仍是高产量、高库存的格局，边际装置利润亏损，氧化铝减产只是时间问题。虽 然年底到明年年初 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Platinum shows a strong upward trend, while palladium starts to diverge from platinum with a slower upward pace. Both are considered relatively strong [3]. - The price range is expected to be 650 - 800 yuan/gram for the main platinum contract and 480 - 600 yuan/gram for the main palladium contract [4]. - This week, the prices of platinum and palladium on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange showed positive weekly performance, but a divergence was observed. The weekly increase of platinum was over 25%, while palladium increased by only 3.4% after reaching a high and then falling. The overseas platinum and palladium prices had a greater upward rebound after a slight retreat before Christmas. Platinum hit a new high for the year, and palladium approached its previous high, getting close to the key level of $2,000 per ounce [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Trading Aspects (Price, Spread, Funds, and Positions) - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: As of the close on Friday, the total open interest of platinum on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 52,265 lots, with a trading volume of 573,824 lots this week. The total open interest of palladium was 30,775 lots, with a trading volume of 576,328 lots [8]. - **Inter - market and Spot - Futures Arbitrage**: The cross - market and spot - futures arbitrage windows for platinum and palladium continued to expand this week, and the Guangzhou Futures Exchange introduced policies to prevent overheating risks [5]. - **Overseas Spot - Futures Spread**: For platinum, the spread between London spot platinum and the main New York platinum contract converged to an average of -$30 per ounce, and the spread between New York continuous platinum and the main contract was slightly at a discount of -$20 per ounce. For palladium, the spread between London spot palladium and the main New York palladium contract was at a further discount of -$120 per ounce, and the spread between New York continuous palladium and the main contract also remained negative, converging to -$35 per ounce [13][16]. - **Spot - Futures Positive Arbitrage**: For platinum, the cost of buying spot and selling the 2606 contract was 10.4 yuan/gram, with a spread of 43.2 yuan/gram, leaving a profit margin of 32.8 yuan/gram. For palladium, the cost was 7.6 yuan/gram, the spread was 30.9 yuan/gram, with a profit margin of 23.3 yuan/gram [17][19]. - **Near - Far Month Cross - Month Positive Arbitrage**: For platinum, the cost of buying the 2606 contract and selling the 2610 contract was 8.6 yuan/gram, with a spread of only 2.6 yuan/gram, so the arbitrage window was not yet open. For palladium, the cost was 6.4 yuan/gram, the spread was 6.4 yuan/gram, and the arbitrage window was also not open [21][23]. - **Import Parity Calculation**: For platinum, the cost of buying London platinum forward and selling the 2606 contract was 69.5 yuan/gram, with a spread of 190.1 yuan/gram, leaving a profit margin of 120.6 yuan/gram. For palladium, the cost was 53.8 yuan/gram, the spread was 118.2 yuan/gram, and the profit margin was 64.4 yuan/gram [25][27]. - **Recycling Spread**: As the absolute prices of platinum and palladium rose, the recycling discount of platinum deepened to -119 yuan/gram, while that of palladium remained at around -60 yuan/gram [29]. - **ETF Holdings**: This week, platinum ETF holdings increased by 1.67 tons (about 538,000 ounces), and palladium ETF holdings increased by 0.47 tons (about 151,000 ounces). The growth rate of platinum ETF holdings showed an upward trend, while that of palladium slowed down [31]. 3.2 Fundamental Aspects (Inventory and Import - Export Data) - **Forward Discount Rate**: In the past month, both the overseas forward markets of platinum and palladium were in a discount structure. This week, the platinum discount remained at a high level, with discounts for all tenors above an annualized rate of 10%. The discount of palladium decreased, with all tenors falling within an annualized rate of 3% [37]. - **Inventory and Registered Warehouse Receipt Ratio**: This week, the NYMEX platinum inventory slightly increased to 646,895.5 ounces (about 20.12 tons), and the ratio of registered warehouse receipts decreased to 48%. The NYMEX palladium inventory slightly increased to 198,039.61 ounces (about 6.16 tons), and the ratio of registered warehouse receipts rose above 71% [38][41]. - **China's Import - Export Data**: Since September 2025, the export volume of platinum has surged, the import volume and net inflow have diverged, and the cumulative net inflow since January 2020 has been 557.17 tons. In November, the import volume decreased to 4.58 tons, and the net inflow rate also slowed down to 3.34 tons. December data has not been released. Since 2020, palladium has had almost no export volume, being in a state of pure import, and the cumulative net inflow has been 162 tons. In November, the import volume increased to 3.02 tons, with a net inflow of 3.02 tons. December data has not been released [48]. - **London Fixing Supply - Demand Balance**: For London platinum, the supply - demand balance value fell into the negative range only on one day this week, and the absolute value was not large. For London palladium, the value fell into the negative range on two days, and the absolute value was also not large [50][52].

国泰君安期货·能源化工 玻璃纯碱周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所·张驰 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0011243 日期：2025年12月28日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 本周玻璃观点：暂时仍是震荡市 趋势仍偏弱 供应 截至20251225，国内玻璃生产线在剔除僵尸产线后共计296条(20万吨/日），其中在产218条，冷修停产78条。全国浮法玻璃日产量为15.45万 吨，比18日-0.39%。 策略 2）跨期：暂不参与； 3）跨品种：暂不参与，后期如果交易2026年通胀预期因素，则玻璃或更强，但短期市场不确定性因素较多； 不确定 因素 房地产政策的不确定性、反通缩、反内卷政策具体落实到玻璃产业的不确定。 资料来源：隆众资讯 需求 截至20251215，全国深加工样本企业订单天数均值9.7天，环比-4.2%，同比-22.6%。目前来看，北部区域深加工订单环比继续下滑，中部及东 部整体变化不大，华南订单环比仍适度增加，西南区域内增降并存，订单均值环比小幅下滑。全国深加工样本企业散单仍集中在3-7天，部分 工程类订单排期缩短 ...

国泰君安期货·能源化工 石油沥青周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所·王涵西 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0019174 期货从业资格号：F3082452 日期：2025年12月28日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint CONTENTS 综述 01 价格&价差 02 基本面数据 03 市场回顾 期现 价差结构 需求 供应 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 2 综述 1 本周沥青观点：冬储进行时，现货低持稳 | 供应 | 本周（20251218-1224），中国92家沥青炼厂产能利用率为33.1%，环比增加4.0%，国内重交沥青77家企业产能利用率为31.3%，环比增加 3.7%。分析原因主要是本周期辽河石化提产，加之山东、华东以及华南地区个别主力炼厂复产后稳定生产，导致产能利用率增加。 | | --- | --- | | 需求 | 本周(20251217-1223)，国内沥青54家企业厂家样本出货量共40.4万吨，环比增加15.4%。分地区来看，华南以及山东增加明显，其中华南地 区个别主 ...