Report Industry Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the report industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The bottom space of nickel price is expected to shift from pyrometallurgy to hydrometallurgy in 2026, with the front - end smelting entering a second peak of low - cost replacement of high - cost. The combined low - cost and surplus volume is over 360,000 tons, while the nickel - iron to nickel - matte production in 2025 was about 270,000 tons [3][68]. - The price difference between nickel - iron and nickel sulfate/refined nickel is expected to converge in the long - term, with the industry chain forming a parallel pattern of hydrometallurgy - nickel sulfate/refined nickel and nickel - iron - stainless steel. If the Indonesian nickel ore quota is implemented, nickel - iron will rise more than pure nickel; otherwise, pure nickel will decline [4][69]. - The path of price difference regression may be bumpy. In 2026, domestic enterprises may consider selling MHP and squeezing MHP profits [4][69]. - The upper limit of nickel price depends on the uncertainty of Indonesian policies. The long - term nickel price is still promising, especially in 2027 due to the demand from solid - state batteries and other emerging sectors [4][69]. - From a static balance perspective, a surplus of about 220,000 - 230,000 tons is expected in 2026, mainly due to the over - supply in the smelting end [5][70]. Summary by Related Catalogs Supply: Shift to Hydrometallurgy in the Production Cycle - In 2025, intermediate products and nickel sulfate were in short supply, while refined nickel had significant inventory accumulation. The industry mode and resource integration led to more flexible conversion between standard and non - standard products [10][12]. - In 2026, Indonesia's hydrometallurgical MHP will be the largest source of supply. The planned production capacity from 2026 - 2027 is close to 550,000 tons, with an expected increase of 350,000 tons in production capacity by the end of 2026. The actual increase in supply is mainly from three projects, with an expected year - on - year increase of 160,000 tons to 620,000 tons in 2026 [13]. - The total capacity of the key oxygen - rich side - blowing incremental projects from 2026 - 2027 is about 80,000 tons. The output of Indonesian oxygen - rich side - blown nickel matte is expected to increase by 30,000 tons to 70,000 tons in 2026 [15]. - The trend of RKEF converting to nickel matte is decreasing. The traditional pyrometallurgy is facing challenges, with the bottom space of nickel price shifting from pyrometallurgy to hydrometallurgy [21]. - The global nickel - iron supply is expected to increase by 60,000 tons to 2.26 million tons in 2026. However, due to the squeeze of hydrometallurgy on pyrometallurgy, the supply elasticity of nickel - iron will increase [25]. Risk: Uncertainty of Indonesian Policies - Indonesia has the ability and motivation to support prices. It can resolve the surplus contradiction by cutting 9% of nickel supply. Currently, it is taking a moderate approach to support prices, with the full cost of pyrometallurgical nickel - iron rising by 5% year - on - year [30]. - The cost of MHP has increased, but the high cobalt price offsets part of it. In the long - term, Indonesia may cut the quota to control the surplus, but an immediate "one - size - fits - all" policy is still challenging [34]. Demand: Contradiction May Not Be Prominent, Focus on Ternary in the Long - Term - In 2026, the growth rate of global electric vehicle demand will be moderate, with the increase in market penetration as the core logic. The total global electric vehicle sales are expected to increase by 13% to 23.75 million units [37]. - The growth of the Chinese electric vehicle market may slow down, but the structural market has bright spots, with an expected increase of about 1.5 million units in domestic demand [39]. - The overseas market growth mainly comes from Europe and emerging regions, while the US market may have a negative impact [42]. - The growth rate of global ternary battery installation is not expected to be high in 2026. The proportion of ternary battery installation may decline by 6% to 36%. The long - term demand depends on emerging sectors such as solid - state batteries [43]. - The alloy demand growth is expected to be limited, with marginal attention on high - temperature and corrosion - resistant alloys. The demand for stainless steel is less elastic and may not have outstanding performance [50][63].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For p-xylene options approaching expiration, consider buying options for directional trading [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Agricultural Products Data 3.1.1 Futures Market Statistics - Various agricultural product futures showed different closing prices, price changes, trading volumes, and open interest changes. For example, corn (c2603) closed at 2222 with a price increase of 33, trading volume of 729,771 (up 468,659), and open interest of 1,014,722 (up 17,278) [3] 3.1.2 Options Market Statistics - Different agricultural product options had varying trading volumes, PCR (Put-Call Ratio) changes, open interest, and PCR changes. For instance, corn options' main contract had a trading volume of 132,095 (up 77,780), PCR of 0.3494 (up 0.0136), open interest of 265,650 (up 3,485), and PCR of 0.4557 (up 0.026) [5] 3.1.3 Options Quantitative Indicators - Each agricultural product option had specific remaining trading days, at-the-money volatility, volatility changes, 60-day quantiles, HV10, HV20, skew, and skew changes. For example, corn (c2603) had 37 remaining trading days, at-the-money volatility of 10.12% (up 0.46%), 60-day quantile of 65.0%, HV10 of 9.63%, HV20 of 9.18%, skew of 16.16% (down 2.49%), and 60-day skew quantile of 83.33% [6] 3.2 Energy and Chemical Data 3.2.1 Futures Market Statistics - Energy and chemical futures had different closing prices, price changes, trading volumes, and open interest changes. For example, PTA (ta2605) closed at 5280 with a price increase of 128, trading volume of 1,936,584 (up 324,031), and open interest of 1,478,489 (up 68,925) [7] 3.2.2 Options Market Statistics - Options in the energy and chemical sector had varying trading volumes, PCR changes, open interest, and PCR changes. For instance, PTA options' main contract had a trading volume of 735,602 (up 220,883), PCR of 0.4889 (up 0.0608), open interest of 254,635 (up 16,834), and PCR of 1.0724 (up 0.0587) [8] 3.2.3 Options Quantitative Indicators - Each energy and chemical option had specific remaining trading days, at-the-money volatility, volatility changes, 60-day quantiles, HV10, HV20, skew, and skew changes. For example, PTA (ta2602) had 10 remaining trading days, at-the-money volatility of 35.88% (up 8.33%), 60-day quantile of 100.0%, HV10 of 18.83%, HV20 of 19.32%, skew of 32.59% (up 5.71%), and 60-day skew quantile of 96.67% [10] 3.3 Black Data 3.3.1 Futures Market Statistics - Black futures showed different closing prices, price changes, trading volumes, and open interest changes. For example, iron ore (i2605) closed at 783.0 with a price increase of 4.5, trading volume of 291,118 (up 145,309), and open interest of 580,731 (up 13,627) [11] 3.3.2 Options Market Statistics - Black options had varying trading volumes, PCR changes, open interest, and PCR changes. For instance, iron ore options' main contract had a trading volume of 103,210 (up 63,177), PCR of 1.1848 (down 0.3322), open interest of 122,845 (up 5,018), and PCR of 1.5185 (down 0.1206) [11] 3.3.3 Options Quantitative Indicators - Each black option had specific remaining trading days, at-the-money volatility, volatility changes, 60-day quantiles, HV10, HV20, skew, and skew changes. For example, iron ore (i2602) had 15 remaining trading days, at-the-money volatility of 16.56% (up 1.65%), 60-day quantile of 38.33%, HV10 of 10.43%, HV20 of 12.52%, skew of 1.47% (up 4.45%), and 60-day skew quantile of 100.0% [12] 3.4 Metal Data 3.4.1 Futures Market Statistics - Metal futures had different closing prices, price changes, trading volumes, and open interest changes. For example, gold (au2602) closed at 1016.3 with a price increase of 7.54, trading volume of 224,588 (up 4,452), and open interest of 180,712 (down 1,467) [13] 3.4.2 Options Market Statistics - Metal options showed varying trading volumes, PCR changes, open interest, and PCR changes. For instance, gold options' main contract had a trading volume of 79,266 (up 22,923), PCR of 0.2866 (down 0.0513), open interest of 88,080 (up 5,003), and PCR of 0.5676 (up 0.026) [14] 3.4.3 Options Quantitative Indicators - Each metal option had specific remaining trading days, at-the-money volatility, volatility changes, 60-day quantiles, HV10, HV20, skew, and skew changes. For example, gold (au2602) had 19 remaining trading days, at-the-money volatility of 25.99% (up 3.46%), 60-day quantile of 85.0%, HV10 of 15.28%, HV20 of 13.04%, skew of 44.39% (up 7.65%), and 60-day skew quantile of 100.0% [15]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the rubber industry is "shockingly bullish" [1] 2. Core View of the Report - Last week, the sentiment in the natural rubber market improved, leading to rising rubber prices. Despite factors like the slowdown in factory rubber - purchasing in Hainan due to approaching the end of the harvest season, high - yield overseas production, and increasing port inventories, the positive sentiment among traders supported the price increase. With the expected reduction in overseas ship arrivals, the inventory accumulation at ports may slow down, providing short - term support to the natural rubber market [3][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Data - **Futures Market**: The day - session closing price of the rubber main contract was 15,780 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan from the previous day; the night - session closing price was 15,775 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan. The trading volume decreased by 42,266 lots to 340,531 lots, while the open interest of the 05 contract increased by 3,095 lots to 185,943 lots. The warehouse receipt quantity increased by 700 tons to 93,930 tons, and the net short position of the top 20 members increased by 521 lots to 40,467 lots [2] - **Spread Data**: The basis of "spot - futures main contract" decreased by 20 to - 480, and the basis of "mixed - futures main contract" decreased by 70 to - 1,000. The month - spread of RU05 - RU09 decreased by 15 to 30. Among the foreign quotes, RSS3 increased by 20 to 2,130 dollars/ton, SMR20 increased by 5 to 1,875 dollars/ton, and SIR20 increased by 10 to 1,800 dollars/ton, while STR20 remained unchanged at 1,880 dollars/ton. The price of Qilu styrene - butadiene rubber increased by 100 to 11,500 yuan/ton, and Qilu cis - butadiene rubber increased by 150 to 11,300 yuan/ton [2] - **Spot Market**: In the Qingdao market, the price of Thai mixed rubber was 1,865 dollars/ton for near - port and 1,870 dollars/ton for spot. The price of Thai standard rubber was in the range of 1,860 - 1,865 dollars/ton, down 5 - 10 dollars/ton from the previous day [2] 3.2 Industry News - Last week, the average weekly price of Shanghai full - latex was 15,040 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan or 0.60%; the average weekly price of 20 - grade Thai standard rubber in the Qingdao market was 1,852 dollars/ton, up 12 dollars or 0.65%; the average weekly price of 20 - grade Thai mixed rubber in the Qingdao market was 14,608 yuan/ton, up 98 yuan or 0.68% [3][4] - In December 2025, the estimated import volume of natural rubber in China is 71.91 tons, an increase of 7.55 tons compared to the final import volume in November. With most overseas production areas in the peak - production period and no significant improvement in EU EUDR procurement, more overseas supplies are flowing into China [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Aluminum follows the trend of copper, alumina is influenced by the "involution" policy orientation, and cast aluminum alloy follows the trend of electrolytic aluminum [1] - Trump's administration plans to take control of the power grid from states to prioritize power supply for AI data - centers, facing opposition from state regulatory agencies [2] - NVIDIA is leading a shift to 800V DC architecture in data - centers, causing a reshuffle of the industrial chain. There are short - term high investment thresholds but a long - term TCO reduction of about 30% [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Aluminum**: The closing price of the SHFE aluminum main contract is 22405, up 220 from T - 5 and 1800 from T - 66; the LME aluminum 3M closing price is 2957, up 1 from T - 5 and 367 from T - 66. Trading volume and open interest have fluctuated [1] - **Alumina**: The closing price of the SHFE alumina main contract is 2793, up 293 from T - 5 and down 187 from T - 66. The trading volume and open interest have also changed [1] - **Aluminum Alloy**: The closing price of the aluminum alloy main contract is 21390, up 155 from T - 5. Trading volume and open interest have decreased [1] 3.2 Spot Market - **Aluminum - related**: The LME aluminum ingot inventory is 52.11 million tons, with a slight change compared to previous periods; the domestic aluminum ingot social inventory is 61.20 million tons, with a change of 5.10 million tons from T - 5 [1] - **Alumina - related**: The average domestic alumina price is 2697, down 61 from T - 5 and 491 from T - 66; the alumina CIF price in Lianyungang is 2780 yuan/ton, down 65 from T - 5 and 475 from T - 66 [1] - **Aluminum Alloy - related**: The theoretical profit of ADC12 is - 2, with a change compared to previous periods; the price of Baotai ADC12 is 21500, up 300 from T - 5 and 1200 from T - 66 [1] 3.3 Other Information - The trend intensity of aluminum, alumina, and aluminum alloy is all 1, indicating a neutral trend [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Group 2: Report's Core Views - Various energy and chemical futures are in different market conditions, including high - level oscillations, limited upward space, and potential for rebounds or continued weakness [2]. - Each commodity's market situation is influenced by factors such as supply and demand, device operations, and macro - economic conditions [8][9][10]. Group 3: Summaries by Commodity PX, PTA, MEG - **PX**: High - level oscillation market. Supply is marginally loose while demand is decreasing, but the tight - balance pattern remains due to high polyester开工率. Attention should be paid to position management before the festival [8]. - **PTA**: High - level oscillation market. Supply decreases and demand increases, with continuous inventory reduction, which is beneficial for the performance of spreads and basis [9]. - **MEG**: There is an expectation of supply contraction. It is in a price - range oscillation market. Although inventory accumulation is hard to change, the situation may improve marginally. Interval operations are recommended [10]. Rubber - The rubber market is oscillating strongly. Commodity preference sentiment has supported price increases, but factors such as port inventory accumulation and overseas supply pressure still exist [13][14]. Synthetic Rubber - The price center of synthetic rubber is moving up. However, near - term fundamental weakness restricts the upward elasticity of prices. The butadiene raw material has a neutral short - term fundamental situation [15][17]. Asphalt - The asphalt spot price is temporarily stable. The total domestic asphalt production in January 2026 is expected to decline. Factory inventory is decreasing while social inventory is mixed [18][28]. LLDPE - The LLDPE basis is weak, and spot transactions are concentrated in the middle stream. The market faces supply - demand pressure from high capacity and weakening demand [29][30]. PP - In January, multiple PDH units are planned for maintenance, and the PP market is stabilizing and oscillating. The cost support is limited, and the demand is weak. Attention should be paid to the marginal changes of PDH units [32][33]. Caustic Soda - The short - term rebound of caustic soda is limited in height, and attention should be paid to the delivery pressure in January. It has a high - production and high - inventory pattern with weak demand [35][36]. Pulp - The pulp market is oscillating. The market is affected by factors such as exchange rates, downstream demand, and cost expectations, with no clear one - sided driving force [39][42]. Methanol - Methanol is oscillating. The port inventory is expected to continue to accumulate, and the near - term fundamental pressure increases. It is in a pattern of weak fundamentals and strong macro - situation [45][48]. Urea - Urea is in short - term oscillation. The demand has improved, and the inventory has decreased, providing support for prices. The 05 contract has a support level due to strong agricultural demand expectations in 2026 [50][53]. Styrene - Styrene is in short - term oscillation. The processing fee is expected to remain at a relatively high level in 2026, but there are risks from downstream inventory and demand [54][57]. LPG and Propylene - **LPG**: Short - term supply is tight, and attention should be paid to the realization of downward driving forces [58]. - **Propylene**: The spot supply - demand is tightening, and there is an expectation of a rebound from the bottom [58]. PVC - The short - term rebound of PVC is limited in height. It has a high - production and high - inventory structure, and large - scale supply reduction is expected after the 03 contract [66][68]. Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Fuel Oil**: It is mainly in a night - session adjustment trend and may remain strong in the short term [71]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: It is in a narrow - range oscillation, and the high - low sulfur spread in the overseas spot market is temporarily stable [71]. Short - Fiber and Bottle Chip - **Short - Fiber**: It is in high - level oscillation. The futures are rising, and the spot sales have improved [73]. - **Bottle Chip**: It is in high - level oscillation. The raw material futures are rising, and the market transaction atmosphere is fair [74]. Offset Printing Paper - The offset printing paper market is in a wait - and - see state. The spot price is stable, and the market transaction is not active [76][77]. Pure Benzene - Pure benzene is in short - term oscillation. It is currently in a "weak chemical reality" situation, but the market may improve in the second quarter of 2026 [81][82].

2025 年 12 月 29 日 焦炭：四轮提降预期仍存，震荡反复 焦煤：年底减产扰动，震荡反复 刘豫武 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0023649 liuyuwu2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 焦煤焦炭基本面数据 商 品 研 究 | | | | 昨日收盘价(元/吨) | 涨跌(元/吨) | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | JM2605 | 1115. 5 | -8. 5 | -0. 8% | | 期货价格 | | 12605 | 1720 | -19 | -1.1% | | | | | 昨日成交(手) | 昨日持仓(手) | 持仓变动(手) | | | | JM2605 | 1400316 | 493746 | -9902 | | | | J2605 | 23311 | 29836 | 781 | | | | | 昨日价格(元/吨) | 前日价格(元/吨) | 涨跌(元/吨) | | | | 临汾低硫主佳 | 1600 | 1600 | 0 | | | | 吕梁低硫主焦 | 1450 | 1500 | -50 | | | 焦煤 | 吕梁瘦主 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overnight US soybeans closed lower, and Dalian soybean meal futures may adjust; soybean futures are expected to fluctuate [1] - The soybean futures market on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) closed lower on December 26, 2025, mainly due to long - position profit - taking. The market lacks new news, and factors such as Sino - US relations and South American weather add uncertainties [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: DCE soybean futures contract 2605 closed at 4140 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan (+0.36%); DCE soybean meal futures contract 2605 closed at 2790 yuan/ton, up 51 yuan (+1.86%), and in the night session, it was at 2783 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan (+0.04%); CBOT soybean futures contract 03 closed at 1071.75 cents/bushel, down 4.75 cents (-0.44%); CBOT soybean meal futures contract 03 closed at 307.4 dollars/short ton, down 0.7 dollars (-0.23%) [1] - **Spot Data**: The spot price of soybean meal (43%) is in the range of 3120 - 3150 yuan/ton, up 40 - 50 yuan compared to the previous day; different regions have different basis prices and premiums for different contract periods [1] - **Industrial Data**: The trading volume of soybean meal is 18.45 (units not specified), and the inventory is 105.63 tons [1] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - On December 26, 2025, CBOT soybean futures closed lower due to long - position profit - taking. The market lacks new news, and traders are waiting for new information on China's demand for US soybeans, while also paying attention to geopolitical dynamics and South American weather [3] - Brazil has started harvesting early - sown soybeans, and the yield may exceed 6.5 billion bushels, setting a new record. Argentina's soybean crops are in the early growth stage, and timely rainfall supports high yields [3] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of soybean meal is 0, and the trend intensity of soybeans is 0, mainly referring to the price fluctuations of the main - contract futures on the reporting day [3]

Report Investment Rating - The report does not provide an investment rating for the sugar industry [1] Core Viewpoints - The sugar market has a strong atmosphere, with the price of sugar showing certain changes and the supply - demand situation varying in different regions [1] Summary by Directory Fundamental Tracking - The price of raw sugar is 15.17 cents per pound, a year - on - year decrease of 0.13 cents; the mainstream spot price is 5360 yuan per ton, a year - on - year increase of 10 yuan; the futures main contract price is 5285 yuan per ton, a year - on - year increase of 16 yuan. The 15 - spread is 9 yuan per ton, a year - on - year decrease of 86 yuan; the 59 - spread is - 6 yuan per ton, a year - on - year increase of 2 yuan; the mainstream spot basis is 75 yuan per ton, a year - on - year decrease of 6 yuan [1] Macro and Industry News - Precious metals and other commodities have risen significantly, creating a strong commodity atmosphere. As of December 15, the sugar production in India in the 25/26 sugar season increased by 28.3% year - on - year. Brazil exported 3.3 million tons in November, a year - on - year decrease of 90,000 tons. China imported 440,000 tons of sugar in November, a decrease of 90,000 tons. Attention should be paid to changes in China's import policies for syrup and premixed powder [1] Domestic Market - CAOC expects the domestic sugar production in the 25/26 sugar season to be 11.7 million tons (previously 11.2 million tons), consumption to be 15.7 million tons (previously 15.9 million tons), and imports to be 5 million tons. As of the end of September in the 24/25 sugar season, the national sugar production was 11.16 million tons, an increase of 1.2 million tons; the cumulative sugar sales were 10.48 million tons, an increase of 870,000 tons; the cumulative sugar sales rate was 93.9%, a decrease of 2.6 percentage points. As of the end of November in the 25/26 sugar season, China's cumulative sugar imports were 1.19 million tons, an increase of 120,000 tons [2] International Market - ISO expects a global sugar surplus of 1.63 million tons in the 25/26 sugar season (previously a shortage of 230,000 tons), and a global sugar shortage of 2.92 million tons in the 24/25 sugar season. As of December 1, the cumulative sugarcane crushing volume in the central - southern region of Brazil in the 25/26 sugar season decreased by 1.92 percentage points year - on - year, with cumulative sugar production of 39.9 million tons, an increase of 450,000 tons, and a cumulative MIX of 51.12%, a year - on - year increase of 2.78 percentage points. As of December 15, the sugar production in India in the 25/26 sugar season was 7.79 million tons, an increase of 1.72 million tons. As of December 22, the cumulative sugar production in Thailand in the 25/26 sugar season was 820,000 tons, a decrease of 130,000 tons [3] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of sugar is 0, indicating a neutral state [4]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Report - Gold: Inflation is moderately declining [2]. - Silver: Undergoing high - level adjustment [2]. - Copper: Strong overseas spot prices support price increases [2]. - Zinc: Showing a moderately strong oscillation [2]. - Lead: Weak demand restricts price increases [2]. - Tin: Supply is facing new disruptions [2]. - Aluminum: Following the upward trend of copper [2]. - Alumina: Under the policy orientation of "internal competition" [2]. - Cast aluminum alloy: Following the trend of electrolytic aluminum [2]. - Platinum: Bullish sentiment remains strong [2]. - Palladium: Oscillating upwards [2]. - Nickel: There is a game between capital and industrial forces, and attention should be paid to the emergence of structural opportunities [2]. - Stainless steel: Fundamental factors limit its flexibility, and attention should be paid to policy risks in Indonesia [2]. Summaries Based on Relevant Catalogs Gold - **Price and Trading Volume**: Yesterday, the closing price of Shanghai Gold 2602 was 1,016.30, with a daily increase of 0.75%, and the night - session closing price was 1018.10, with a night - session increase of 0.17%. The trading volume of ETF SPDR Gold ETF increased by 3 to 1,071.13 [4]. - **Macro and Industry News**: In 2026, the Two Sessions will be held on March 4 for the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference and March 5 for the National People's Congress. China will continue to implement a more proactive fiscal policy in 2026. China's industrial enterprise profits in November 2026 decreased by 13.1% year - on - year. The central bank emphasized preventing the "overshoot" of the RMB exchange rate. Trump stated that Russia and Ukraine were "close to reaching an agreement" [4][6]. - **Trend Intensity**: Gold trend intensity is 0 [6]. Copper - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the Shanghai Copper main contract was 98,720, with a daily increase of 2.61%, and the night - session closing price was 101380, with a night - session increase of 2.69%. The LME 3M electronic copper board had a closing price of 12,133, with an increase of 0.65% [7]. - **Macro and Industry News**: China will continue to implement a more proactive fiscal policy in 2026. Peru extended the temporary licenses of small - scale miners until the end of 2026. Kazakhstan's refined copper production from January to November 2025 increased by 2.5% year - on - year. China's imports of copper ore and concentrates in November 2025 increased by 3.05% month - on - month and 13.13% year - on - year. Chile initiated the preliminary mediation procedure for the labor - capital contract negotiation of the Mantoverde copper - gold mine [7][9]. - **Trend Intensity**: Copper trend intensity is 1 [9]. Zinc - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the Shanghai Zinc main contract was 23170, with an increase of 0.46%. The LME 3M electronic zinc board had a closing price of 3086.5, with a decrease of 0.32%. The Shanghai Zinc main contract's trading volume increased by 20495 to 145708, and the position increased by 4103 to 97425 [10]. - **News**: China's industrial enterprise profits in November 2026 decreased by 13.1% year - on - year, but the profits of high - tech manufacturing increased by 10.0% year - on - year from January to November. China will continue to implement a more proactive fiscal policy in 2026 [11]. - **Trend Intensity**: Zinc trend intensity is 0 [12]. Lead - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the Shanghai Lead main contract was 17555, with an increase of 1.39%. The LME 3M electronic lead board had a closing price of 1999.5, with an increase of 0.83%. The Shanghai Lead main contract's trading volume increased by 3669 to 58769, and the position decreased by 770 to 55558 [13]. - **News**: China will continue to implement a more proactive fiscal policy in 2026. China's industrial enterprise profits in November 2026 decreased by 13.1% year - on - year [14]. - **Trend Intensity**: Lead trend intensity is 0 [14]. Tin - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the Shanghai Tin main contract was 338,550, with an increase of 0.79%, and the night - session closing price was 346,280, with an increase of 2.46%. The LME 3M electronic tin board had a closing price of 42,490, with a decrease of 0.81%. The Shanghai Tin main contract's trading volume increased by 70,845 to 369,071, and the position decreased by 968 to 52,276 [17]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Similar to gold, including the time of the Two Sessions, fiscal policy, industrial enterprise profits, exchange - rate prevention, and the Russia - Ukraine situation [18]. - **Trend Intensity**: Tin trend intensity is 1 [19]. Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract was 22405, with an increase of 130 compared to T - 1. The closing price of the Shanghai Alumina main contract was 2793, with an increase of 147 compared to T - 1. The closing price of the cast aluminum alloy main contract was 21390, with an increase of 45 compared to T - 1 [20]. - **Comprehensive News**: Trump plans to take over the US power grid regulatory power for AI data centers. NVIDIA is leading the data center to a 800V DC architecture [21]. - **Trend Intensity**: Aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy trend intensities are all 1 [21]. Platinum and Palladium - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of platinum futures 2606 was 705.30, with an increase of 2.67%. The closing price of palladium futures 2606 was 515.65, with a decrease of 2.53%. The trading volume and position of Shanghai Platinum and NYMEX Platinum, as well as Shanghai Palladium and NYMEX Palladium, all had corresponding changes [22]. - **Macro and Industry News**: China's ETF scale reached 6.03 trillion yuan as of December 27. The National Fiscal Work Conference was held from December 27 to 28. Cambodia and Thailand reached a consensus on the draft joint statement of the Cambodia - Thailand Border General Committee meeting [24]. - **Trend Intensity**: Platinum and palladium trend intensities are both 1 [24]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 126,750, with an increase of 1,340 compared to T - 1. The closing price of the stainless - steel main contract was 12,955, with a decrease of 35 compared to T - 1. The trading volume and position of both also had corresponding changes [26]. - **Macro and Industry News**: An Indonesian nickel - mining area was taken over, China suspended a non - official subsidy for Russian copper and nickel imports, Indonesia imposed sanctions on mining companies, adjusted RKAB regulations, and there were tariff threats from the US, suspension of new smelting licenses in Indonesia, production impacts in Indonesian nickel - wet projects, and Fed's dovish remarks, as well as export license management for some steel products in China [26][29]. - **Trend Intensity**: Nickel and stainless - steel trend intensities are both 0 [30].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a short-term "relatively strong" rating for the live hog industry [1]. 2. Core View of the Report - The contradictions in the live hog market continue to accumulate, and the short-term trend is relatively strong [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Price Data**: The Henan spot price is 12,080 yuan/ton with a year-on-year increase of 250 yuan/ton; the Sichuan spot price is 12,250 yuan/ton with a year-on-year increase of 150 yuan/ton; the Guangdong spot price is 11,760 yuan/ton with a year-on-year decrease of 200 yuan/ton. For futures, the prices of live hog 2601, 2603, and 2605 are 11,300 yuan/ton, 11,645 yuan/ton, and 12,090 yuan/ton respectively, with year-on-year increases of 95 yuan/ton, 185 yuan/ton, and 115 yuan/ton [2]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of live hog 2601 is 7,448 lots, an increase of 2,289 lots from the previous day, and the open interest is 15,509 lots, a decrease of 3,509 lots from the previous day; the trading volume of live hog 2603 is 117,211 lots, an increase of 53,885 lots from the previous day, and the open interest is 171,508 lots, an increase of 8,077 lots from the previous day; the trading volume of live hog 2605 is 26,673 lots, an increase of 12,218 lots from the previous day, and the open interest is 86,130 lots, an increase of 1,472 lots from the previous day [2]. - **Price Difference Data**: The basis of live hog 2601 is 780 yuan/ton, a year-on-year increase of 155 yuan/ton; the basis of live hog 2603 is 435 yuan/ton, a year-on-year increase of 65 yuan/ton; the basis of live hog 2605 is -10 yuan/ton, a year-on-year increase of 135 yuan/ton; the spread between live hog 1 - 3 is -345 yuan/ton, a year-on-year decrease of 90 yuan/ton; the spread between live hog 3 - 5 is -445 yuan/ton, a year-on-year increase of 70 yuan/ton [2]. 3.2 Market Information - Multiple companies registered warehouse receipts in December. Yunnan Shennong registered 85 lots on December 4th, Guizhou Fuyuan registered 23 lots on December 5th, Dekang registered 225 lots on December 10th and 150 lots on December 11th, Yangxiang registered 40 lots on December 10th, COFCO registered 300 lots on December 15th, and Muyuan registered 40 lots on December 23rd [3]. - The Ministry of Commerce determined that there was dumping of imported related pork and by-products originating from the European Union [4]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity is 1, indicating a relatively strong trend. The value of trend intensity ranges from -2 to 2, with -2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [5].