Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content Core Views - The report provides daily market analysis and trend forecasts for various commodities in the black series, including iron ore, rebar, hot-rolled coils, ferrosilicon, silicomanganese, coke, coking coal, and logs, suggesting that most commodities will experience wide fluctuations or repeated oscillations [2] Summary by Commodity Iron Ore - **Trend Forecast**: Wide fluctuations [2][4] - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of futures contract 12601 was 805 yuan/ton, with no change. The price of imported and domestic ores remained mostly stable, except for a 1 yuan increase in the price of Super Special ore (56.5%). Some basis and spread values changed slightly [4] - **Macro and Industry News**: In August, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.4%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month [4] - **Trend Intensity**: Neutral (0) [4] Rebar and Hot-Rolled Coils - **Trend Forecast**: Wide fluctuations [2][6][7] - **Fundamental Data**: The closing prices of RB2510 and HC2510 decreased, with trading volumes and positions changing. The spot prices in most regions declined. Some basis and spread values changed [7] - **Macro and Industry News**: In August, China exported 951.0 million tons of steel, a 3.3% month-on-month decrease; imports were 50.0 million tons, a 10.6% month-on-month increase. In the week of September 4, the production of rebar and hot-rolled coils decreased, inventories increased, and apparent demand decreased [8][9] - **Trend Intensity**: Neutral (0) [9] Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Trend Forecast**: Wide fluctuations affected by market sentiment [2][10] - **Fundamental Data**: The closing prices of some futures contracts increased, with changes in trading volumes and positions. Spot prices and various spreads changed [10] - **Macro and Industry News**: On September 10, the prices of different grades of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese varied by region. A steel company's procurement price of 75B ferrosilicon decreased. A large steel group increased its tender volume for silicomanganese in September, and the tender price decreased. UMK lowered its manganese ore price for China in October [10][11][12] - **Trend Intensity**: Neutral (0) [13] Coke and Coking Coal - **Trend Forecast**: Wide fluctuations due to repeated expectations [2][14][15] - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of JM2601 decreased, while J2601 increased. Spot prices of coking coal and coke changed, and some basis and spread values changed [15] - **Macro and Industry News**: The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the State Administration for Market Regulation issued an action plan for stabilizing growth in the electronic information manufacturing industry from 2025 - 2026 [15] - **Trend Intensity**: Neutral (0) [15] Logs - **Trend Forecast**: Repeated oscillations [2][17] - **Fundamental Data**: The closing prices, trading volumes, and positions of different futures contracts changed, with varying daily and weekly price and volume fluctuations. Spot prices remained mostly stable [18] - **Macro and Industry News**: In August, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.4%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month [20] - **Trend Intensity**: Neutral (0) [20]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Nickel is expected to move in a narrow - range oscillation [1][3]. - Stainless steel prices may oscillate as there is a game between reality and expectations [1][4]. - Lithium carbonate is likely to experience a weak - side oscillation, and attention should be paid to the actual progress of resumption of production [1][10]. - For industrial silicon, the Inner Mongolia meeting has increased news - related disturbances [1][13]. - Regarding polysilicon, attention should be paid to the fermentation of market sentiment [1][13]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the Shanghai nickel main contract was 120,850, down 940 from T - 5; the closing price of the stainless - steel main contract was 12,915, up 65 from T - 10. There were also changes in trading volume, various premiums, and spreads [4]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Canada's Ontario may stop exporting nickel to the US; an Indonesian nickel - iron project entered the trial - production stage; environmental violations were found in an Indonesian industrial park; Indonesia plans to shorten the mining quota period; the approved production plan for 2025 in Indonesia is higher than that in 2024; some Indonesian nickel - iron production lines suspended production; Indonesian mining companies need to resubmit their 2026 work plans and budgets; a Shandong steel mill started maintenance [4][5][6][7]. - **Trend Intensity**: Nickel and stainless - steel trend intensities are both 0 [9]. Lithium Carbonate - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the 2511 contract was 70,720, down 2,180 from T - 1. There were also changes in trading volume, open interest, basis, and prices of related products in the lithium - salt industrial chain [10]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price decreased; Codelco and SQM are about to finalize a cooperation agreement for lithium - mining [11][12]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of lithium carbonate is - 1 [12]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of Si2511 was 8,665, up 255 from T - 1; the closing price of PS2511 was 52,885, down 635 from T - 1. There were also changes in trading volume, open interest, basis, prices, profits, and inventory data [13]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Jinko Energy's subsidiary plans to sell 80% of its equity [14]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of industrial silicon is 0, and that of polysilicon is 1 [15].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - The report analyzes the market trends of various energy and chemical futures on September 11, 2025, including PX, PTA, MEG, rubber, synthetic rubber, asphalt, etc. Each commodity has its own supply - demand situation, price trends, and corresponding investment suggestions [2][10]. - For most commodities, the short - term and medium - term trends are affected by factors such as supply and demand balance, device operation, inventory changes, and geopolitical events [10][17][20]. Summary by Commodity PX, PTA, MEG - **Market Data**: PX, PTA, and MEG have different price changes in futures and spot markets. For example, PX's yesterday's closing price was 6770, with a 0.65% increase; PTA's closing price was 4698, up 0.43%; MEG's closing price was 4319, down 0.07% [5]. - **Market Trends**: PX may have a short - term rebound due to short - term device start - up decline, but it is still weak in the fourth quarter. PTA is in a tight supply - demand balance, but there are concerns about future supply increases. MEG has a weak unilateral trend, but the downward space is limited [10][11]. - **Investment Suggestions**: For PX, it is recommended to buy on dips, conduct 11 - 01 positive spreads and 1 - 5 reverse spreads. For PTA, focus on the 11 - 01 positive spreads. For MEG, it is advisable to buy on dips [10][11]. Rubber - **Market Data**: The rubber market shows changes in futures and spot prices, with the main contract's closing price and trading volume changing. For example, the main contract's day - trading closing price was 15,980 yuan/ton, an increase of 40 yuan from the previous day [13]. - **Market Trends**: The rubber market is in a wide - range shock. Although the raw material price has a slight callback and the cost - end support weakens, the inventory continues to decline, and the holders' quotes remain firm [15]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral trend [13]. Synthetic Rubber - **Market Data**: The synthetic rubber market has changes in futures and spot prices, trading volume, and inventory. For example, the main contract's trading volume decreased by 53,901 hands compared with the previous day [17]. - **Market Trends**: In the short term, the synthetic rubber market is under shock pressure. In the medium term, it oscillates within the fundamental valuation range. The supply pressure increases, but there are expectations of Fed rate cuts and "anti - involution" policies [17][20]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral trend [19]. Asphalt - **Market Data**: The asphalt market has price changes in futures and spot markets, and changes in refinery start - up rates and inventory rates. For example, the refinery start - up rate is 39.59%, a decrease of 0.63% from the previous period [21]. - **Market Trends**: Refineries are stably resuming production, and the shipment in the north has slowed down. The overall market is affected by factors such as supply and demand and inventory [36]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral trend [31]. LLDPE - **Market Data**: The LLDPE market has price changes in futures and spot markets, and changes in basis and monthly spreads. For example, the 01 - contract basis is - 106 [37]. - **Market Trends**: The PE demand is improving, and the supply pressure may be alleviated in the short term. The inventory pressure is not large, and the medium - term trend is an interval shock [38]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral trend [39]. PP - **Market Data**: The PP market has price changes in futures and spot markets, and changes in basis and monthly spreads. For example, the 01 - contract basis is - 218 [41]. - **Market Trends**: The short - term demand has improved, but the cost is still weak. The supply pressure will increase in the future, and the long - term trend is under pressure [42]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral trend [43]. Caustic Soda - **Market Data**: The caustic soda market has price changes in futures and spot markets, and the 01 - contract futures price is 2576 [45]. - **Market Trends**: The caustic soda market is in a wide - range shock, and the upward drive is insufficient due to factors such as export and alumina [47]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral trend [49]. Pulp - **Market Data**: The pulp market has price changes in futures and spot markets, and changes in basis and monthly spreads. For example, the basis of silver star - futures main contract is 654 [53]. - **Market Trends**: The pulp market is oscillating strongly. The futures price rebounds after the short - term decline, and the spot market trading activity improves [54]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity is 1, indicating a relatively strong trend [53]. Glass - **Market Data**: The glass market has price changes in futures and spot markets, and changes in basis and monthly spreads. For example, the 01 - contract basis is - 91 [57]. - **Market Trends**: The domestic float glass market shows mixed trends, with different trading atmospheres in different regions [57]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity is - 1, indicating a relatively weak trend [58]. Methanol - **Market Data**: The methanol market has price changes in futures and spot markets, and changes in basis and monthly spreads. For example, the basis is - 112 [61]. - **Market Trends**: The methanol market is oscillating. The price is affected by factors such as supply pressure and the expectation of fundamental improvement [63][64]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral trend [64]. Urea - **Market Data**: The urea market has price changes in futures and spot markets, and changes in basis and monthly spreads. For example, the 01 - contract closing price is 1669 [66]. - **Market Trends**: The urea market is oscillating weakly. The inventory has increased, and the short - term is under shock pressure, with a weak trend in the medium term [67][68]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity is - 1, indicating a relatively weak trend [68]. Styrene - **Market Data**: The styrene market has price changes in futures and spot markets, and changes in spreads. For example, EB - BZ is 1315 [69]. - **Market Trends**: Styrene is strong in the short term and weak in the medium term. The cost center moves down due to factors such as OPEC's production increase [70]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity is 1, indicating a relatively strong trend [69]. Soda Ash - **Market Data**: The soda ash market has price changes in futures and spot markets, and changes in basis and monthly spreads. For example, the 01 - contract basis is - 81 [73]. - **Market Trends**: The domestic soda ash market is in a light and stable shock, with weak downstream demand and a weak price trend [73]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity is - 1, indicating a relatively weak trend [73]. LPG and Propylene - **Market Data**: The LPG and propylene markets have price changes in futures and spot markets, and changes in trading volume and spreads. For example, PG2510's closing price is 4462, up 1.34% [75]. - **Market Trends**: LPG is affected by geopolitical conflicts, and the potential supply risk increases. Propylene's supply device fluctuates, and the spot transaction price rises [75]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of both is 0, indicating a neutral trend [79]. PVC - **Market Data**: The PVC market has price changes in futures and spot markets, and changes in basis and monthly spreads. For example, the 01 - contract futures price is 4857 [84]. - **Market Trends**: The PVC market is in a low - level shock. The supply is expected to increase, the demand is weak, and the inventory continues to accumulate [84]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral trend [85]. Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Market Data**: The fuel oil and low - sulfur fuel oil markets have price changes in futures and spot markets, and changes in trading volume, spreads, etc. For example, FU2510's closing price is 2827, up 1.36% [87]. - **Market Trends**: Fuel oil has a short - term adjustment trend, and low - sulfur fuel oil continues to be weak, with the spread between high - and low - sulfur spot prices narrowing again [87]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of both is 0, indicating a neutral trend [87]. Container Shipping Index (European Line) - **Market Data**: The container shipping index (European line) market has price changes in futures and spot markets, and changes in freight rates and spreads. For example, EC2510's closing price is 1267.4, down 0.42% [89]. - **Market Trends**: The container shipping index (European line) market is in a shock market, and freight rates in European and US - West routes have different degrees of decline [89]. - **No specific trend intensity is mentioned**: No specific trend intensity is provided in the report.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - China's PPI year - on - year decline narrowed to 2.9% in August, and the decline in PPI year - on - year has narrowed for the first time since March, indicating that the previous production - limiting measures of upstream state - owned enterprises are taking effect, but the foundation for PPI recovery is not solid [7][8]. - For the pig sector, there is a pattern of weak reality and strong expectations. The short - term weakness is difficult to change, and the idea of large reverse arbitrage is maintained [10]. - For the soybean meal sector, it is in a rebound and oscillation state. The price is waiting for the guidance of trade negotiations, and the market is trading time for space [11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Commodity Research 3.1.1 Precious Metals - Gold: The non - farm payrolls are revised downwards. The trend intensity is 1 [14][18]. - Silver: The gold - silver ratio is rising. The trend intensity is 1 [14][18]. 3.1.2 Base Metals - Copper: The US dollar is under pressure, and the price rises. The trend intensity is 1 [14][22]. - Zinc: It is in range - bound oscillation. The trend intensity is 0 [14][25]. - Lead: The inventory decreases, which supports the price. The trend intensity is 0 [14][28]. - Tin: It is in range - bound oscillation. The trend intensity is 0 [14][31]. - Aluminum: It runs strongly. The trend intensity is 0 [14][34]. - Alumina: It is supported by cost. The trend intensity is 0 [14][34]. - Cast aluminum alloy: It follows electrolytic aluminum. The trend intensity is 0 [14][34]. - Nickel: It runs in a narrow - range oscillation. The trend intensity is 0 [14][38]. - Stainless steel: There is a game between reality and expectation, and the steel price may oscillate. The trend intensity is 0 [14][38]. 3.1.3 Energy Metals - Lithium carbonate: It oscillates weakly, and attention should be paid to the actual progress of resumption of production. The trend intensity is - 1 [14][44]. 3.1.4 Industrial Metals - Industrial silicon: The Inner Mongolia meeting increases news - based disturbances. The trend intensity is 0 [14][47]. - Polysilicon: Attention should be paid to the fermentation of market sentiment. The trend intensity is 1 [14][47]. 3.1.5 Ferrous Metals - Iron ore: It oscillates in a wide range. The trend intensity is 0 [14][50]. - Rebar: It oscillates in a wide range. The trend intensity is 0 [14][52]. - Hot - rolled coil: It oscillates in a wide range. The trend intensity is 0 [14][53]. - Ferrosilicon: Market sentiment disturbs, and it oscillates in a wide range. The trend intensity is 0 [14][56]. - Silicomanganese: Market sentiment disturbs, and it oscillates in a wide range. The trend intensity is 0 [14][56]. - Coke: Expectations are repeated, and it oscillates in a wide range. The trend intensity is 0 [14][60]. - Coking coal: Expectations are repeated, and it oscillates in a wide range. The trend intensity is 0 [14][61]. 3.1.6 Forest Products - Logs: It oscillates repeatedly. The trend intensity is not provided [14][63]. 3.1.7 Chemicals - p - Xylene: It rebounds in the short term, and the monthly spread is in a positive arbitrage. No trend intensity provided [14]. - PTA: The monthly spread is in a positive arbitrage. No trend intensity provided [14]. - MEG: It rebounds in the short term. No trend intensity provided [14]. - Rubber: It oscillates in a wide range. No trend intensity provided [14]. - Synthetic rubber: It oscillates within the fundamental valuation range. No trend intensity provided [14]. - Asphalt: Refineries resume production stably, and the shipment in the north slows down. No trend intensity provided [14]. - LLDPE: It has a medium - term oscillating market. No trend intensity provided [14]. - PP: It oscillates in the short term, and there is still pressure in the medium - term trend. No trend intensity provided [14]. - Caustic soda: It is not advisable to chase short. No trend intensity provided [14]. - Pulp: It oscillates strongly. No trend intensity provided [14]. - Glass: The price of the original sheet is stable. No trend intensity provided [14]. - Methanol: It oscillates. No trend intensity provided [14]. - Urea: It oscillates weakly. No trend intensity provided [14]. - Styrene: It is strong in the short term and weak in the medium term. No trend intensity provided [14]. - Soda ash: There is little change in the spot market. No trend intensity provided [14]. 3.1.8 Energy - LPG: Geopolitical conflicts intensify, and the potential supply risk increases. No trend intensity provided [14][16]. - Propylene: The supply device fluctuates, and the spot trading price rises. No trend intensity provided [14][16]. - PVC: It oscillates at a low level. No trend intensity provided [14][16]. - Fuel oil: It oscillates narrowly at night, showing a short - term adjustment trend. No trend intensity provided [14][16]. - Low - sulfur fuel oil: The weakness continues, and the price spread between high - and low - sulfur in the overseas spot market narrows again. No trend intensity provided [14][16]. 3.1.9 Agricultural Products - Short - fiber: It rebounds in the short term. No trend intensity provided [14][16]. - Bottle chips: It rebounds in the short term. No trend intensity provided [14][16]. - Offset printing paper: It oscillates at a low level. No trend intensity provided [14][16]. - Pure benzene: It is strong in the short term and weakly oscillates. No trend intensity provided [14][16]. - Palm oil: The fundamental driving force is insufficient, and it corrects in the short term. No trend intensity provided [14][16]. - Soybean oil: The US soybean oil policy is uncertain, and there are limited themes for soybean oil. No trend intensity provided [14][16]. - Soybean meal: The US soybeans closed down overnight, and the Dalian soybean meal may oscillate. No trend intensity provided [14][16]. - Soybean: It rebounds after over - decline. No trend intensity provided [14][16]. - Corn: It oscillates. No trend intensity provided [14][16]. - Sugar: Attention should be paid to Brazil's exports. No trend intensity provided [14][16]. - Cotton: Attention should be paid to the situation of new cotton listing. No trend intensity provided [14][16]. - Eggs: It oscillates in the short term. No trend intensity provided [14][16]. - Pigs: The spot is weak, and the policy is strong. No trend intensity provided [14][16]. - Peanuts: Attention should be paid to the listing of new peanuts. No trend intensity provided [14][16].

Report Overview - Report Date: September 11, 2025 - Report Source: Guotai Junan Futures - Report Focus: Agricultural product futures Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Views - Palm oil: Lack of fundamental drivers, short - term correction [2] - Soybean oil: Uncertain US soybean oil policies, limited themes [2] - Soybean meal: Overnight US soybeans closed lower, Dalian soybean meal may fluctuate [2] - Soybean: Oversold rebound [2] - Corn: Oscillating [2] - Sugar: Focus on Brazilian exports [2] - Cotton: Monitor the situation of new cotton listings [2] - Eggs: Short - term oscillation [2] - Live pigs: Weak spot market, strong policy [2] - Peanuts: Focus on the listing of new peanuts [2] Summary by Product Palm Oil and Soybean Oil - **Fundamental Data**: Palm oil futures had a day - closing price of 9,244 yuan/ton with a - 2.55% decline and a night - closing price of 9,302 yuan/ton with a 0.63% increase. Soybean oil futures had a day - closing price of 8,256 yuan/ton with a - 1.81% decline and a night - closing price of 8,290 yuan/ton with a 0.41% increase [4]. - **News**: Malaysia's August palm oil inventory was 2,202,534 tons, a 4.18% month - on - month increase; production was 1,855,008 tons, a 2.35% increase; exports were 1,324,672 tons, a 0.29% decrease; imports were 49,036 tons, a 19.66% decrease. Malaysia's September 1 - 10 palm oil exports decreased by 8.43% (AmSpec) and 1.2% (ITS) compared to the same period last month [5][6][8]. - **Trend Intensity**: Palm oil and soybean oil trend intensities are both 0 [9]. Soybean Meal and Soybean - **Fundamental Data**: DCE soybean 2511 had a day - closing price of 3,911 yuan/ton with a - 0.13% decline and a night - closing price of 3,927 yuan/ton with a 0.20% increase. DCE soybean meal 2601 had a day - closing price of 3,066 yuan/ton with a - 0.33% decline and a night - closing price of 3,076 yuan/ton with a 0.39% increase [10]. - **News**: On September 10, CBOT soybeans closed lower due to concerns about Chinese demand and active position adjustments. Analysts expect the USDA to lower US soybean and corn yield forecasts on Friday, but the production is still expected to be high [10][12]. - **Trend Intensity**: Soybean meal trend intensity is 0; soybean trend intensity is +1 [12]. Corn - **Fundamental Data**: C2511 had a day - closing price of 2,197 yuan/ton with a - 0.81% decline and a night - closing price of 2,200 yuan/ton with a 0.14% increase. C2601 had a day - closing price of 2,170 yuan/ton with a - 0.96% decline and a night - closing price of 2,169 yuan/ton with a - 0.05% decline [14]. - **News**: Northern corn port collection prices were stable, while Guangdong Shekou prices increased. Other related grain prices also had different trends [15]. - **Trend Intensity**: Corn trend intensity is 0 [16]. Sugar - **Fundamental Data**: The raw sugar price was 16.54 cents/pound, the mainstream spot price was 5,920 yuan/ton, and the futures主力 price was 5,535 yuan/ton [17]. - **News**: Indian monsoon precipitation increased again. Brazilian sugar exports decreased in July and August. Conab lowered the 25/26 Brazilian sugar production forecast. China's sugar import and production data also had changes [17][18]. - **Trend Intensity**: Sugar trend intensity is 0 [20]. Cotton - **Fundamental Data**: CF2601 had a day - closing price of 13,855 yuan/ton with a 0.14% increase and a night - closing price of 13,860 yuan/ton with a 0.04% increase. ICE cotton futures closed at 66.72 cents/pound, up 0.5% [22]. - **News**: The domestic cotton spot market had slightly better trading, mainly for textile enterprises' rigid demand procurement. The cotton yarn market was generally weak, and the ICE cotton futures rebounded [23]. - **Trend Intensity**: Cotton trend intensity is 0 [25]. Eggs - **Fundamental Data**: Egg 2510 had a closing price of 3,019 yuan/500 kilograms with a - 0.43% decline, and egg 2601 had a closing price of 3,353 yuan/500 kilograms with a - 1.56% decline [26]. - **Trend Intensity**: Egg trend intensity is 0 [26]. Live Pigs - **Fundamental Data**: The Henan spot price was 13,580 yuan/ton, and the futures prices of different contracts also had different values [29]. - **Market Logic**: At the end of the month and the beginning of the month, the group significantly reduced the supply, and the spot price rebounded. However, the weight increased again, and the supply in September was large. The 3 - 5 month cost may decline, and the 7 - month contract may have policy regulation [31]. - **Trend Intensity**: Live pig trend intensity is 0 [30]. Peanuts - **Fundamental Data**: The prices of different peanut varieties and futures contracts had changes, such as the Liaoning 308 general - purpose peanut price was 7,700 yuan/ton, and PK510 had a closing price of 7,876 yuan/ton with a - 0.63% decline [33]. - **News**: The spot market had different situations in different regions. New peanuts were expected to be listed in October, and some regions had new peanuts with high moisture [34]. - **Trend Intensity**: Peanut trend intensity is 0 [37].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2) Core View of the Report The report indicates that the price of offset printing paper is in a low - level shock. The trend strength of double - offset paper is - 1, suggesting a bearish outlook [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Spot Market**: In the Shandong market, the prices of 70g Tianyang, 70g Chenming Yunjing, 70g Huaxia Taiyang, and 70g Benbai Mudan remained unchanged at 4550, 4800, 4800, and 4550 yuan/ton respectively on September 10, 2025, compared to the previous day. In the Guangdong market, the prices of 70g Tianyang, 70g Chenming Yunbao, and 70g Huaxia Taiyang also remained stable at 4500, 4650, and 4750 yuan/ton respectively [1]. - **Cost and Profit**: The pre - tax and after - tax costs and profits of offset printing paper remained unchanged on September 10, 2025. The pre - tax cost was 5046 yuan/ton, the pre - tax gross profit was - 228 yuan/ton, the after - tax cost was 4638 yuan/ton, and the after - tax gross profit was - 374 yuan/ton [1]. - **Futures and Basis**: The closing prices of OP2601.SHF and OP2603.SHF were 4208 and 4218 respectively, with a 1 - 3 spread of - 10. The basis in the Shandong market for Tianyang - 01 and Mudan - 01 was 342, and in the Guangdong market, the basis for Tianyang - 01 was 292 [1]. Industry News - **Shandong Market**: The mainstream negotiated price of high - white double - offset paper in the Shandong market was 4750 - 4800 yuan/ton, and the price of some ben - white double - offset paper was in the range of 4300 - 4600 yuan/ton, remaining stable compared to the previous day. Large - scale paper mills were operating normally, while small and medium - sized mills adjusted production flexibly. Dealers maintained stable prices and were cautious about inventory, and downstream printing factories had average procurement demand [2]. - **Guangdong Market**: The mainstream negotiated price of high - white double - offset paper in the Guangdong market was 4600 - 4800 yuan/ton, and the price of ben - white double - offset paper was 4500 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged from the previous day. Paper mills' quotes were stable, dealers' inventory was rational, and printing factories' orders were limited, resulting in a general trading atmosphere [3][4]. Trend Intensity The trend intensity of double - offset paper is - 1, indicating a bearish view. The range of trend intensity is from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [1].

Report Overview - The report focuses on the container shipping index (European routes) as of September 11, 2025, providing an analysis of its market trends, fundamental data, and investment strategies [1]. 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. 2. Report's Core View - The container shipping index (European routes) is in a volatile market. The 2510 contract is expected to show narrow - range fluctuations, the 2512 contract should be treated with a wide - range oscillation mindset, and the 2602 contract may not necessarily be at a discount to the 12 contract [1][12][15]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Contract Data - EC2510 closed at 1,267.4 points, down 0.42%, with an increase of 114 positions; EC2512 closed at 1,674.0 points, down 0.02%, with an increase of 729 positions; EC2602 closed at 1,524.0 points, up 0.14% [1]. 3.2 Freight Index Data - SCFIS European route index was 1,566.46 points, down 11.7% week - on - week; SCFIS US West route index was 980.48 points, down 3.3% week - on - week. SCFI European route was $1,315/TEU, down 11.2% bi - weekly; SCFI US West route was $2,189/FEU, up 13.8% bi - weekly [1]. 3.3 Spot Freight Rates - In week 38, spot freight rates further declined, with the central value around $1,700/FEU. It is conservatively estimated that the cumulative decline in weeks 39 and 40 will be $100/FEU, and the central value may fall to around $1,600/FEU [13]. 3.4 Supply - Side Fundamentals - In October, the weekly average capacity was slightly revised down from 27.6 to 26.7 TEU/week, with a year - on - year growth rate of 1.1%. In November, without considering undetermined voyages, the weekly average capacity is currently 30.2 TEU/week [14]. 3.5 Contract Analysis - For the 2510 contract, it may mainly reflect the freight quotes from weeks 40 - 42, and is expected to show narrow - range fluctuations. For the 2512 contract, it should be treated with a wide - range oscillation mindset. For the 2602 contract, it may not necessarily be at a discount to the 12 contract [15]. 3.6 Investment Strategy - This week, take profit on the 2510 contract on dips. In the medium - to - long - term, consider going long on the 02 - 04 and 12 - 04 calendar spreads on dips [16].

2025年09月10日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-贵金属及基本金属 观点与策略 | 黄金：下修非农就业 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 白银：金银比上行 | 2 | | 铜：缺乏明确驱动，价格震荡 | 4 | | 锌：震荡盘整 | 6 | | 铅：价格震荡 | 8 | | 锡：区间震荡 | 9 | | 铝：区间震荡 | 11 | | 氧化铝：下方空间恐仍在 | 11 | | 铸造铝合金：跟随电解铝 | 11 | | 镍：窄幅震荡运行 | 13 | | 不锈钢：现实与预期博弈，钢价或震荡运行 | 13 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 9 月 10 日 黄金：下修非农就业 白银：金银比上行 | 王蓉 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 | wangrong013179@gtjas.com | | --- | --- | --- | | 刘雨萱 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 | liuyuxuan023982@gtjas.com | 【基本面跟踪】 贵金属基本面数据 | | | 昨日收 ...

| 有色及贵金属日度数据简报 | 2025/9/10 | 王蒙 | 李先飞 | 刘雨萱 | Z0012691 | Z0020476 | Z0002529 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 国泰君安期货研究所有 | jixianfei@gtht.com | wangrong2@gtht.com | liuyuxuan@gtht.com | 色及贵金属组 | 王宗源(联系人) | 张再宇 | F03142619 | Z0021479 | | | | | | | | | zhangzaiyu@gtht.com | wangzongyuan@gtht.com | 黄金 (AU) | 今天 | 前一交易日 | 上周 | 上月 | | | | | | | | | | | 指标名称 | 2025/9/9 | 2025/9/3 | 2025/8/13 | 2025/9/10 | 沪金主力收盘价(元/克) | 833. 42 | ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - On September 9, all four major stock index futures contracts declined, with IF down 0.69%, IH down 0.45%, IC down 0.76%, and IM down 1.13%. The total trading volume of stock index futures decreased, indicating a cooling of investors' trading enthusiasm. In terms of positions, the total positions of IF, IH, and IC decreased, while those of IM increased. The trend intensity of IF and IH is 1, and that of IC and IM is also 1 [1][2][6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Stock Index Futures Data Tracking - **Closing Prices and Fluctuations**: The closing prices of major stock indexes such as CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 all declined, with corresponding futures contracts also showing varying degrees of decline. For example, the CSI 300 index closed at 4436.26, down 0.70% [1] - **Basis**: Different futures contracts have different basis values, such as IF2509 with a basis of -10.06 [1] - **Trading Volume and Turnover**: Trading volume and turnover vary among different contracts. For example, the turnover of IF2509 is 97.88 billion yuan, and the trading volume is 73,565 lots [1] - **Position Changes**: IF, IH, and IC's total positions decreased, while IM's total positions increased. Specifically, IF's total positions decreased by 11,487 lots, IH's by 1,228 lots, IC's by 2,610 lots, and IM's increased by 6,917 lots [2] 3.2. Top 20 Member Position Changes in Stock Index Futures - Different contracts have different changes in long and short positions. For example, in IF2509 and IF2510, the long - position increase/decrease is -8,104, and the short - position increase/decrease is -8,488 [5] 3.3. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of IF and IH is 1, and that of IC and IM is also 1. The trend intensity ranges from -2 to 2, with -2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [6] 3.4. Important Drivers - Non - farm payroll data was significantly revised downward, the Nasdaq reached a new high, U.S. Treasury bonds were under pressure, gold soared and then declined, and Oracle rose 27% after earnings. Apple fell 1.48%, while the Chinese concept stock index rose 1.48%. The U.S. non - farm annual revision was worse than expected, increasing the pressure on the Fed to cut interest rates. Apple released new products such as the A19 chip - equipped iPhone 17. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.51%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 1.23%, and the ChiNext Index fell 2.23% [6]