2025 年 6 月 13 日星期五 地址： 电话： | | 日本 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 国债: | | 4 | | 股指: | | 5 | | 贵金属: | . | C | | 螺纹、热卷: | | ୯ ମ | | 铁矿石: | . | 6 | | | 焦煤焦炭: | | | 铁合金: | | 1 | | 原油: | . | 1 | | 燃料油: | | 8 | | 合成橡胶: | | C | | 天然橡胶: | | C | | PVC: | .. | | | 尿素: | . | 10 | | 对二甲苯 PX: | .. 11 | | | PTA: | .. | | | | 乙二醇: . | | | 短纤: | .. | | | 瓶片: | .. | | | 纯碱: | .. | | | 玻璃: | .. | | | 烧碱: | .. | | | 纸浆: | .. | | | 碳酸锂: | | 16 | | 铜： | | 16 | | --- | --- | --- | | 锡： | | 17 | | 镍： | | 17 | | 豆油、豆粕： | | 18 | | 棕榈油： | ...

2025 年 6 月 12 日星期四 重庆市江北区金沙门路 32 号 23 层； 023-67070250 上海市浦东新区世纪大道 210 号 10 楼 1001； 021-50591197 地址： 电话： 1 市场有风险 投资需谨慎 | 日 水 | | --- | | 国债: 4 | | 股指: 4 | | 贵金属: . C T | | 螺纹、热卷: ( | | 铁矿石: ( | | . 焦煤焦炭: 1 – | | 铁合金: ו – | | 原油: .. 8 | | 燃料油: C | | 合成橡胶: C | | 天然橡胶: C | | PVC: .. | | 尿素: .. 10 | | 对二甲苯 PX: 11 | | PTA: 11 | | 乙二醇: . | | 短纤: | | 瓶片: .. | | 纯碱: .. | | .. 玻璃: | | 烧碱: .. | | 纸浆: .. | | 碳酸锂: .. | | 铜： | | 16 | | --- | --- | --- | | 锡： | | 17 | | 镍： | | 17 | | 豆油、豆粕： | | 18 | | 棕榈油： | | 18 | | 菜粕、菜 ...

2025 年 6 月 11 日星期三 重庆市江北区金沙门路 32 号 23 层； 023-67070250 上海市浦东新区世纪大道 210 号 10 楼 1001； 021-50591197 地址： 电话： 1 市场有风险 投资需谨慎 | 日 水 | | | --- | --- | | 国债: | 4 | | 股指: | 4 | | 贵金属: . | C T | | 螺纹、热卷: | ( | | 铁矿石: | ( | | . 焦煤焦炭: | 1 – | | 铁合金: | ו – | | 原油: .. | 8 | | 燃料油: | C | | 合成橡胶: | C | | 天然橡胶: | C | | PVC: .. | | | 尿素: .. | | | 对二甲苯 PX: ... 11 | | | PTA: . | | | 乙二醇: . | | | 短纤: | | | 瓶片: .. | | | 纯碱: .. | | | .. 玻璃: | | | 烧碱: .. | | | 纸浆: .. | | | 碳酸钾. | | | 铜： | | 16 | | --- | --- | --- | | 锡： | | 17 | | 镍 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The macro - economic recovery momentum needs to be strengthened, and the monetary policy is expected to remain loose. Different investment strategies are recommended for various commodities based on their market conditions [6][9][11]. 3. Summary by Commodity 3.1 Fixed - Income and Equities - **Treasury Bonds**: The previous trading day saw a differentiated closing of treasury bond futures. The current macro - economic recovery momentum is weak, and the treasury bond yield is at a relatively low level. It is expected that there will be no trend - based market, and investors should remain cautious [5][6][7]. - **Stock Index Futures**: The previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed performance. Although the domestic economic recovery momentum is not strong, the long - term performance of Chinese equity assets is still promising, and investors can consider going long on stock index futures [8][9][10]. 3.2 Precious Metals - **Precious Metals**: The previous trading day, gold and silver futures had different performances. Due to the complex global trade and financial environment and the trends of "de - globalization" and "de - dollarization", the long - term bull market trend of precious metals is expected to continue, and investors can consider going long on gold futures [11][12]. 3.3 Base Metals and Ferrous Metals - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils**: The previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures showed weak oscillations. The real - estate industry's downturn has led to a decline in rebar demand, and the market is in a slack season. Investors can focus on short - selling opportunities on rebounds and pay attention to position management [13][14]. - **Iron Ore**: The previous trading day, iron ore futures had a slight correction. The supply - demand pattern of the iron ore market has weakened marginally. Investors can focus on buying opportunities at low levels and set stop - loss points [16]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures showed weak oscillations. The market is in a supply - surplus pattern, and investors can focus on short - selling opportunities on rebounds [18][19]. - **Ferroalloys**: The previous trading day, manganese silicon and silicon iron futures had small increases. The short - term demand for ferroalloys may peak, and the market is in a supply - surplus situation. If the spot losses increase significantly, investors can consider low - value call options [21][22]. - **Copper**: The previous trading day, Shanghai copper showed a strong upward trend. The upcoming Sino - US trade negotiations are positive for market sentiment, and investors can consider going long on Shanghai copper futures [56][57]. - **Tin**: The previous trading day, Shanghai tin showed an oscillating trend. The current shortage pattern in the real - world and the expectation of a loose supply are in a game, and it is expected that the upward pressure on tin prices is relatively large, with a bearish oscillating view [58][59]. - **Nickel**: The previous trading day, Shanghai nickel declined. The cost support is strong, but the downstream demand is weak, and it is expected that the price will run weakly [60]. 3.4 Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The previous trading day, INE crude oil opened high and moved higher. The upcoming Sino - US trade negotiations are positive for market sentiment, and the OPEC's pressure on oil prices is expected to have passed the most severe stage. Investors can consider a long - position operation on the crude oil main contract [23][25][26]. - **Fuel Oil**: The previous trading day, fuel oil oscillated downward. The increase in Singapore's fuel oil inventory has put pressure on prices, but the rise in crude oil prices may drive fuel oil prices up. Investors can consider a long - position operation on the fuel oil main contract [27][28][29]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The previous trading day, synthetic rubber showed a small increase. The supply pressure continues, and the demand improvement is limited. Wait for the market to stabilize and then participate in the rebound [30][31]. - **Natural Rubber**: The previous trading day, natural rubber futures had different performances. The market has concerns about future demand, and the inventory has increased against the season. Wait for the market to stabilize and then look for long - position opportunities [32][33][34]. - **PVC**: The previous trading day, PVC showed a small increase. The supply - demand drive is not strong, and it is in a traditional off - season. It is expected to be in a bottom - oscillating pattern [35][37]. - **Urea**: The previous trading day, urea declined. The short - term cost has decreased, and the agricultural demand has not been released. In the second half of the year, exports and agricultural demand may drive the price up, and investors can consider going long at low levels [38][39][40]. - **Para - Xylene (PX)**: The previous trading day, PX futures declined. The short - term supply - demand structure is tight, but the PXN spread has a downward trend. It is recommended to trade with an oscillating mindset and pay attention to cost and policy changes [41]. - **PTA**: The previous trading day, PTA futures declined. The short - term supply - demand structure has weakened, but the cost has support. It is expected to oscillate and adjust, and investors can consider trading in a low - level range [42][43]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The previous trading day, ethylene glycol futures declined. The short - term supply - demand has weakened, but the inventory has decreased significantly. It is expected to oscillate and adjust, and investors should pay attention to port inventory and policy changes [44]. - **Short - Fiber**: The previous trading day, short - fiber futures declined slightly. The downstream demand has weakened, but the cost has support. It is expected to oscillate and adjust following the cost, and investors can consider participating cautiously at low levels [45][46][47]. - **Bottle Chips**: The previous trading day, bottle - chip futures declined. The raw material price has corrected, and the supply - demand fundamentals have improved. It is expected to oscillate following the cost, and investors should pay attention to cost price changes [48]. - **Soda Ash**: The previous trading day, soda ash futures declined. The supply is expected to increase slightly, and the long - term supply - demand pattern is oversupplied. The short - term rebound may not be sustainable, and investors should not chase the rise excessively [49]. - **Glass**: The previous trading day, glass futures increased. The actual supply - demand fundamentals have no obvious drive, and the market sentiment is weak. The short - term rebound may not be sustainable, and short - position investors should control their positions [50]. - **Caustic Soda**: The previous trading day, caustic soda futures declined. The overall supply - demand is relatively loose, with obvious regional differences. Long - position investors should control their positions [51][52]. - **Pulp**: The previous trading day, pulp futures increased. The market is in a supply - demand weak pattern, and the inventory is high. The real turnaround may occur in August [53]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The previous trading day, lithium carbonate futures declined slightly. The supply - demand pattern is oversupplied, and the price is difficult to reverse before the large - scale clearance of mine capacity [54][55]. 3.5 Agricultural Products - **Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal**: The previous trading day, soybean meal and soybean oil futures increased. The U.S. soybean growing weather is good, and the supply is expected to be loose. It is recommended to wait and see for soybean meal, and investors can consider low - value call options for soybean oil [61][62]. - **Palm Oil**: The Malaysian palm oil inventory is expected to increase, and the domestic palm oil inventory is at a relatively low level in the past seven years. Investors can consider the opportunity to widen the rapeseed - palm oil spread [63][64]. - **Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil**: The Canadian rapeseed market lacks clear trading guidance. The domestic rapeseed and rapeseed oil inventories have different trends. Investors can consider long - position opportunities after the correction of rapeseed meal [65][66]. - **Cotton**: The previous trading day, domestic and foreign cotton futures increased slightly. The industry is in a traditional off - season, and new orders are limited. Investors should pay attention to Sino - US tariff policies and wait and see [67][68][69]. - **Sugar**: The previous trading day, domestic and foreign sugar futures had different performances. The domestic sugar inventory is low, and the import volume will gradually increase. It is recommended to go long in batches [70][71][72]. - **Apples**: The previous trading day, apple futures declined significantly. The new - year domestic apple production has high uncertainty. Investors can focus on long - position opportunities after the correction [73][74]. - **Hogs**: The previous trading day, hog futures declined slightly. The short - term price may decline, but the contract is at a discount. Investors can consider positive - spread opportunities for peak - season contracts [74][75]. - **Eggs**: The previous trading day, egg futures declined. The egg supply is expected to increase in June, and it is recommended to go short at high levels [76][79]. - **Corn and Corn Starch**: The previous trading day, corn and corn - starch futures increased. The domestic corn supply - demand is approaching balance, but the short - term supply pressure still exists. Corn starch follows the corn market, and it is recommended to wait and see [80][81][82]. - **Logs**: The previous trading day, log futures increased. The fundamental situation has no obvious drive, and the housing transaction improvement may stimulate market sentiment in the short term. Investors should be wary of long - position sentiment disturbances [83][85].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - The macro - economic recovery momentum needs strengthening, and the monetary policy is expected to remain loose. For various commodities, different trends and investment suggestions are presented based on their respective fundamentals and market conditions [6]. Summary by Commodity Treasury Bonds - Last trading day, treasury bond futures closed up across the board. The macro - economic recovery momentum is weak, and the yield is at a relatively low level. It is expected that there will be no trend - based market, and caution is advised [5][6][7]. Stock Index Futures - Last trading day, stock index futures showed mixed performance. The domestic economy is stable, but the recovery momentum is weak. However, due to low asset valuations and China's economic resilience, the long - term performance of Chinese equity assets is optimistic, and long positions in stock index futures are considered [8][9][10]. Precious Metals - Last trading day, gold and silver futures had different performances. Given the complex global trade and financial environment, the long - term bull market trend of precious metals is expected to continue, and long positions in gold futures are considered [11][12]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils - Last trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures rose and then fell. The real - estate downturn suppresses rebar demand, and it is in the off - season. The price is at a low level, and there may be short - term weak oscillations. Short positions on rebounds are recommended [13][14]. Iron Ore - Last trading day, iron ore futures rebounded slightly. The supply - demand pattern has weakened marginally, but it found support at the previous low. Long positions at low levels are recommended [16]. Coking Coal and Coke - Last trading day, coking coal and coke futures rebounded. The market is in a supply - surplus situation, and short positions on rebounds are recommended [18][19]. Ferroalloys - Last trading day, manganese silicon and silicon iron futures rose. The short - term demand may peak, and the supply is excessive. Long positions need caution, and low - value call options can be considered [21][22]. Crude Oil - Last trading day, INE crude oil opened high and closed low. With upcoming Sino - US trade negotiations and the expected weakening of OPEC's pressure on oil prices, the oil price is expected to strengthen, and long positions are considered [23][24][25]. Fuel Oil - Last trading day, fuel oil opened high and closed low. Rising crude oil prices may drive up fuel oil prices, and long positions are considered [26][27][28]. Synthetic Rubber - Last trading day, synthetic rubber futures rose. Supply pressure persists, and demand improvement is limited. Wait for stabilization and then participate in rebounds [29][30]. Natural Rubber - Last trading day, natural rubber futures rose. There are concerns about demand and high inventory. Wait for the market to stabilize and then consider long positions [31][32][33]. PVC - Last trading day, PVC futures rose. The short - term fundamentals change little, and it mainly follows the macro - sentiment. It is in a bottom - oscillating state [34][36]. Urea - Last trading day, urea futures fell. Short - term cost decline and delayed agricultural demand lead to adjustments, but exports and future agricultural demand may drive the price up. Long positions at low levels can be considered [37][38][39]. PX - Last trading day, PX futures rose. Short - term crude oil prices oscillate, and the supply - demand structure is tight. It should be treated with an oscillating mindset, and interval operations are recommended [40]. PTA - Last trading day, PTA futures rose. The supply - demand structure weakens, but inventory reduction and cost support exist. Interval operations at low levels are recommended [41][42]. Ethylene Glycol - Last trading day, ethylene glycol futures fell. The supply - demand situation weakens, but inventory reduction increases short - term games. It is expected to oscillate, and attention should be paid to inventory and policies [43]. Short - Fiber - Last trading day, short - fiber futures rose. Downstream demand weakens, but cost support exists. Follow the cost - end oscillations and consider long positions at low levels [44]. Bottle Chips - Last trading day, bottle - chip futures rose. Raw material prices decline, and the supply - demand fundamentals improve. Follow the cost - end oscillations and participate cautiously [45]. Soda Ash - Last trading day, soda ash futures rose. The long - term supply exceeds demand, and the short - term rebound may not be sustainable. Avoid excessive long positions [46]. Glass - Last trading day, glass futures rose. The actual supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and the short - term rebound may not last. Control short - position risks [47][48]. Caustic Soda - Last trading day, caustic soda futures rose. The overall supply - demand is loose, with regional differences. Long - position holders should control risks [49][50]. Pulp - Last trading day, pulp futures fell. The market is in a supply - demand stalemate in the off - season, and a turnaround may occur in August [51]. Lithium Carbonate - Last trading day, lithium carbonate futures rose. The supply - demand surplus persists, and the price is difficult to reverse without large - scale capacity clearance [52][53]. Copper - Last trading day, Shanghai copper futures rose. Sino - US trade negotiations are beneficial, and the basis for price increase exists. Long positions are considered [54][55]. Tin - Similar to lithium carbonate, the supply - demand surplus exists, and the price is difficult to reverse without large - scale capacity clearance [56][57]. Nickel - Last trading day, Shanghai nickel futures rose. The cost support weakens, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to decline [58]. Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - Last trading day, soybean oil and soybean meal futures rose. The supply of soybeans is expected to be loose, and the upward pressure on soybean meal is high. For soybean oil, consider low - value call options [59][60][61]. Palm Oil - Malaysian palm oil prices rose. The inventory is increasing, and opportunities to widen the spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil can be considered [62][63]. Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - Canadian rapeseed prices rose. Consider long positions in rapeseed meal after corrections [64][65][66]. Cotton - Last trading day, domestic cotton futures rose. The industry is in the off - season, and attention should be paid to Sino - US trade negotiations and USDA reports. Adopt a wait - and - see approach [67][68][69]. Sugar - Last trading day, domestic sugar futures rose. Overseas production is expected to increase, while domestic inventory is low. Consider long positions in batches [70][72][73]. Apples - Last trading day, apple futures oscillated. The new - year production is uncertain. Consider long positions after corrections [74][75]. Live Pigs - Last trading day, live - pig futures fell. Group - farm sales are increasing, and consider long - spread opportunities in peak - season contracts [76][77]. Eggs - Last trading day, egg futures fell. The supply is increasing, and short positions at high levels are considered [78][79]. Corn and Corn Starch - Last trading day, corn futures rose, and corn - starch futures fell. The domestic corn supply - demand is approaching balance, and a wait - and - see approach is recommended [80][81][82]. Logs - Last trading day, log futures rose. The fundamentals have no obvious drivers, and beware of long - position sentiment disturbances [83][84][85].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the bond market, it is expected that there will be no trend - like market, and investors should remain cautious [7]. - Regarding the stock index, the long - term performance of Chinese equity assets is optimistic, and investors may consider going long on stock index futures [10]. - For precious metals, the long - term bull market trend is expected to continue, and investors may consider going long on gold futures [12]. - For most commodities, specific strategies are proposed according to their respective fundamentals, such as going long or short, or waiting for opportunities to enter the market. Summary by Related Catalogs Bonds - Last trading day, Treasury bond futures showed a differentiated closing performance. The 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year main contracts had different changes in prices. The central bank conducted 126.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 139.5 billion yuan on that day. It is expected that there will be no trend - like market, and investors should remain cautious [5][7]. Stock Index - Last trading day, stock index futures showed mixed trends. The Chinese economy is stable, but the recovery momentum is not strong. The market lacks confidence in corporate profits. However, considering the low valuation of domestic assets and the resilience of the Chinese economy, the long - term performance of Chinese equity assets is optimistic, and investors may consider going long on stock index futures [8][9][10]. Precious Metals - Last trading day, gold and silver main contracts had certain price increases. The current global trade and financial environment is complex, and the trends of "de - globalization" and "de - dollarization" are beneficial to the allocation and hedging value of gold. The long - term bull market trend of precious metals is expected to continue, and investors may consider going long on gold futures [11][12]. Steel Products (Thread, Hot - Rolled Coil) - Last trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures opened high and closed low. The real - estate industry's downward trend has not reversed, and the demand for rebar is declining. The market has entered the off - season, and the price of rebar has reached a new low this year with a risk of further decline. The fundamentals of hot - rolled coils are similar to those of rebar. The price valuation of steel products is currently low, and the futures may show a weak and volatile short - term trend. Investors can focus on short - selling opportunities on rebounds, take profits in a timely manner, and pay attention to position management [13][14]. Iron Ore - Last trading day, iron ore futures showed a weak and volatile trend. The daily output of hot metal has declined from its peak, and the supply has increased after April. The inventory is relatively stable. The valuation of iron ore is the highest among black - series products. The futures have been supported near the previous low. Investors can focus on buying opportunities at low levels, take profits on rebounds, and stop losses if the price falls below the previous low, while paying attention to position management [16]. Coking Coal and Coke - Last trading day, coking coal and coke futures fluctuated and consolidated. The coking coal and coke market is in a state of oversupply. The supply of coking coal is loose, and the market sentiment is bearish. The output of steel mills' hot metal has declined, and the procurement intention of steel mills has decreased. The profit of coking enterprises is maintained, and the supply of coke is relatively stable. The spot price of coke has started to decline again. The futures may stop falling in the short - term, but the medium - term weakness has not reversed. Investors can focus on short - selling opportunities on rebounds and take profits in a timely manner [18][19]. Ferroalloys - Last trading day, the manganese - silicon main contract rose, and the silicon - iron main contract fell. The supply of manganese ore may be disturbed, and the demand for ferroalloys is weak while the supply is relatively high. The inventory of manganese - silicon and silicon - iron is at a high level. After the rebar production enters the off - season, the short - term demand for ferroalloys may peak. If the spot losses of manganese - silicon and silicon - iron increase significantly, investors can consider virtual - value call options [21][22]. Crude Oil - Last trading day, INE crude oil fluctuated downward. OPEC + plans to increase production by 411,000 barrels per day in July, which is in line with expectations, and may suspend or reverse the increase. However, there are rumors that OPEC may also increase production by 411,000 barrels per day in August, which has caused market concerns. The pressure of OPEC on oil prices is expected to have passed the most severe moment, and the oil price is expected to strengthen. Investors can consider a long - biased operation on the main crude oil contract [23][24][25]. Fuel Oil - Last trading day, fuel oil fluctuated upward. The supply of Asian fuel oil is increasing, and the demand from Japanese and Korean power plants has decreased. The spot market is active. The inventory of Singapore fuel oil has increased for three consecutive weeks, but the recovery of global trade demand and the rebound of crude oil prices at the cost end are expected to drive the price of fuel oil to rebound. Investors can consider a long - biased operation on the main fuel oil contract [26][27][28]. Synthetic Rubber - Last trading day, the main synthetic rubber contract fell. The supply pressure continues, the demand improvement is limited, and the cost end is expected to rebound to drive the market to stabilize and rebound. Investors should wait for the market to stabilize before participating in the rebound [29][30]. Natural Rubber - Last trading day, the main natural rubber contract and the 20 - rubber main contract rose. The demand side is still worried about the future, and the domestic inventory has increased against the season. The supply side is affected by rain, and the raw material output is low. After the market stabilizes, investors can pay attention to long - buying opportunities [31][33]. PVC - Last trading day, the main PVC contract fell. The short - term fundamentals change little, mainly following the macro - sentiment. The supply is gradually recovering, the export demand is good, and the domestic demand is weak. The cost - profit situation varies in different regions. The market is expected to be in a bottom - oscillating state [34][36]. Urea - Last trading day, the main urea contract fell. The short - term cost has decreased, and the agricultural demand has not been released intensively. However, the export demand may increase in the second half of the year, and the agricultural demand will be released later. The market may stabilize and rebound. Investors can consider going long on dips [37][39]. PX - Last trading day, the PX2509 main contract fell. The PXN and PX - MX spreads have changed. The supply has increased due to the restart of maintenance devices and the postponement of planned maintenance. The short - term crude oil price fluctuates, and the supply - demand structure is tight. However, after the PXN recovers to a relatively high level, it may fall back. The market should be treated with an oscillating mindset, and investors can operate cautiously within the range [40]. PTA - Last trading day, the PTA2509 main contract fell. The supply has increased due to the restart of some devices, and the demand has decreased as the polyester load has been adjusted. The cost end has support. The short - term supply - demand structure of PTA has weakened, but the inventory reduction makes it relatively resistant to decline. Investors can consider operating within the range on dips [41]. Ethylene Glycol - Last trading day, the main ethylene glycol contract fell. The supply has increased slightly, and the inventory has decreased significantly. The downstream polyester start - up has decreased, and there is still an expectation of further reduction. The short - term supply - demand of ethylene glycol has weakened, but the significant inventory reduction has increased short - term trading opportunities. The market is expected to oscillate and adjust, and investors should pay attention to port inventory and macro - policies [42]. Short - Fiber - Last trading day, the short - fiber 2507 main contract fell. The supply load is maintained at a high level, the downstream demand has weakened, and the cost end has support. As the processing fee is continuously compressed, there may be further production cuts. The market will mainly follow the cost end to oscillate and adjust, and investors can consider participating cautiously on dips [43]. Bottle Chips - Last trading day, the bottle chips 2507 main contract fell. The cost end has weakened, the supply load has decreased, and the demand side has improved. The market is expected to follow the cost end to oscillate, and investors should pay attention to cost - price changes [44][45]. Soda Ash - Last trading day, the main soda ash 2509 contract fell. The supply is expected to increase slightly, and the downstream demand is cautious. The long - term oversupply situation is difficult to change, and the inventory is sufficient. The short - term rebound may not be sustainable, and investors should not chase the long - position excessively [46]. Glass - Last trading day, the main glass 2509 contract fell. The total production line has little change, and the actual supply - demand fundamentals have no obvious driving force. The market sentiment is weak. The market is at a historical low, and the short - term rebound may not be sustainable. Short - position investors at low levels should control their positions, and should not chase the long - position excessively [47][48]. Caustic Soda - Last trading day, the main caustic soda 2509 contract fell. The supply is expected to be relatively stable next week, and the demand may be adjusted. The overall supply - demand is relatively loose with obvious regional differences. Investors should focus on enterprise device operation and liquid chlorine price fluctuations [49]. Pulp - Last trading day, the main pulp 2507 contract fell slightly. The domestic and international supply is abundant, and the downstream consumption is weak. Affected by the breakthrough in tariffs, the market is expected to rebound in the short - term. Investors should pay attention to whether international pulp mills start substantial production cuts and the implementation rhythm of domestic consumption - stimulating policies [50]. Lithium Carbonate - Last trading day, the main lithium carbonate contract fell. The cost support has weakened, the supply is expected to increase, and the demand has slowed down. The supply - demand surplus situation has not changed significantly, and the price is difficult to reverse before the large - scale clearance of mine - end production capacity [51]. Copper - Last trading day, Shanghai copper fluctuated higher. The US refined copper inventory has increased, and the copper tariff issue has not been resolved. The positive market sentiment after the Sino - US leaders' call is beneficial to the copper price. Investors can consider a long - biased operation on the main Shanghai copper contract [52][53]. Tin - Last trading day, Shanghai tin rose. The supply is expected to increase as mines resume production, and the cost has increased. The downstream demand is good, and the inventory is decreasing. The market is in a game between the current shortage and the loose expectation. The tin price is expected to face upward pressure and show a bearish - oscillating trend [54]. Nickel - Last trading day, Shanghai nickel rose. The supply of mines is expected to be tightened, and the cost support is strong, but the downstream loss is increasing. The demand side is weak in both the stainless - steel and new - energy sectors. The primary nickel is in an oversupply situation, and the price is expected to be weak [55]. Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - Last trading day, the soybean meal main contract rose, and the soybean oil main contract fell. The supply of soybeans is expected to be loose, the demand for soybean meal and soybean oil has different trends. The soybean meal price may face upward pressure, and investors can wait and see. For soybean oil, investors can pay attention to virtual - value call options at the bottom - support range [56][57][58]. Palm Oil - The Malaysian palm oil inventory is expected to increase, and the domestic import has decreased. The palm oil inventory is at a relatively low level in the same period in the past seven years. Investors can wait for the opportunity to widen the spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil [59][60]. Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - The Canadian rapeseed is relatively strong. The domestic import of rapeseed oil has increased, and the inventory situation of rapeseed, rapeseed meal, and rapeseed oil is different. Investors can consider buying rapeseed meal after a pull - back [61][62][63]. Cotton - The domestic cotton market is in a weak - oscillating state, affected by the unclear Sino - US economic and trade relations. The US cotton export is strong, and the domestic cotton planting area has increased. The industry is in the off - season, and new orders are limited. Investors should wait and see and pay attention to Sino - US tariff policies [64][66][67]. Sugar - The domestic sugar market has fluctuated. The domestic sugar production and sales have increased this year, and the inventory has decreased. The Asian sugar production outlook is good. The Brazilian sugar production is currently low but is expected to increase. The domestic sugar price is undervalued, and investors can consider buying in batches [68][70][71]. Apples - The domestic apple futures have oscillated. The production in some areas may decrease, and the inventory has decreased. The new - year contract represents the new - year purchase price, and investors can pay attention to the opportunity to buy after a pull - back [72][73]. Pigs - The live - pig price has fallen, the supply is increasing, and the demand is weak after the festival. The contract is at a discount, and the risk - return ratio of further short - selling is limited. Investors can consider positive - spread opportunities in the peak - season contract [74][75]. Eggs - The egg price is stable, the cost has decreased, and the inventory of laying hens is at a relatively high level. The supply is expected to continue to increase in June. Investors can consider short - selling after a rebound [76][77]. Corn and Starch - The main corn and corn - starch contracts rose. The supply pressure of corn still exists in the short - term, and the demand maintains a small - growth trend. The supply - demand of domestic corn tends to be balanced, and the price has bottom - support. The corn - starch market has weak supply and demand, and investors should wait and see [78][79][80]. Logs - Last trading day, the main log 2507 contract fell. The freight of imported coniferous logs has decreased, the inventory has decreased slightly, and the spot price has fallen. The fundamentals have no obvious driving force, and the market transaction is light, with weak support for the market [81][82][83].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes various futures products including bonds, stocks, precious metals, and commodities, providing market trends, fundamental analysis, and trading strategies for each product [5][7][10]. - It suggests different trading strategies for different products, such as being cautious about bonds, considering long - positions in stock index futures, and having specific trading ideas for various commodities based on their supply - demand, cost, and market sentiment [6][9][11]. Summary by Product Categories Bonds - Last trading day, bond futures closed higher across the board. The 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year main contracts had respective increases of 0.10%, 0.09%, 0.07%, and 0.04%. The central bank conducted 2149 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 6 billion yuan. It is expected that there will be no trend - based market, and caution is advised [5][6]. Stock Index - Last trading day, stock index futures showed mixed performance. In May 2025, the number of new A - share accounts increased by 22.86% year - on - year. The long - term performance of Chinese equity assets is still optimistic, and it is considered to go long on stock index futures [7][8][9]. Precious Metals - Last trading day, the gold main contract had a closing price of 782.42 with a decline of 0.09%, and the silver main contract had a closing price of 8,463 with an increase of 0.08%. The long - term bull market trend of precious metals is expected to continue, and it is considered to go long on gold futures [10][11]. Steel Products (Thread, Hot - Rolled Coil) - Last trading day, steel futures rebounded significantly. The real - estate industry's downward trend has not reversed, suppressing steel prices. However, the current valuation is low, and there may be a short - term rebound. It is recommended to short on rebounds and pay attention to position management [12][13]. Iron Ore - Last trading day, iron ore futures rebounded slightly. The supply - demand pattern has weakened marginally, but it found support at the previous low. It is recommended to buy at low levels, take profit on rebounds, and set stop - losses if the previous low is broken [15]. Coking Coal and Coke - Last trading day, coking coal and coke futures rose sharply. The supply - demand pattern has not reversed, and it is recommended to short on rebounds and pay attention to position management [17][18]. Ferroalloys - Last trading day, manganese silicon and silicon iron main contracts rose. The demand for ferroalloys is weak, and the supply is still high. It is recommended to pay attention to call option opportunities for manganese silicon and silicon iron under certain conditions [20][21]. Crude Oil - Last trading day, INE crude oil trended upward. OPEC + plans to increase production in July, but it may be suspended or reversed. The oil price is expected to strengthen, and it is recommended to go long on the main crude oil contract [22][23]. Fuel Oil - Last trading day, high - and low - sulfur fuel oils showed different trends. The fuel oil price is expected to rebound, and it is recommended to go long on the main fuel oil contract [24][25][27]. Synthetic Rubber - Last trading day, synthetic rubber main contract rose. The supply pressure continues, and the demand improvement is limited. It is recommended to wait for stabilization and then participate in the rebound [28][29]. Natural Rubber - Last trading day, natural rubber main contracts rose. The demand side is still worried, and the inventory is accumulating. It is recommended to wait for the market to stabilize and then consider going long [30][31]. PVC - Last trading day, PVC main contract rose. The short - term fundamentals change little, and it is expected to fluctuate at the bottom [32][34]. Urea - Last trading day, urea main contract closed flat. The cost has decreased, and the demand is weak in the short term. It is recommended to go long on dips and pay attention to policy changes [35][36]. PX - Last trading day, PX main contract fell. The short - term supply - demand is tight, but the PXN spread may decline. It is recommended to trade with a range - bound mindset and pay attention to cost and policy changes [37]. PTA - Last trading day, PTA main contract fell. The supply - demand structure has improved, and the cost has support. It is recommended to trade in a range on dips and pay attention to risk control [38]. Ethylene Glycol - Last trading day, ethylene glycol main contract fell. The supply - demand has weakened, but the inventory has decreased significantly. It is expected to fluctuate and adjust, and attention should be paid to inventory and policy changes [39][40]. Short - Fiber - Last trading day, short - fiber main contract rose. The downstream demand has weakened, but the cost has support. It is recommended to participate cautiously on dips and pay attention to risk control [41]. Bottle Chips - Last trading day, bottle chips main contract fell. The raw material price has adjusted, and the supply - demand has improved. It is recommended to participate cautiously and pay attention to cost changes [42][43]. Soda Ash - Last trading day, soda ash main contract rose. The long - term supply exceeds demand, and the inventory is sufficient. It is not recommended to chase the short - term rebound [44]. Glass - Last trading day, glass main contract rose. The supply - demand has no obvious driver, and the market sentiment is weak. It is not recommended to chase the short - term rebound [45][46]. Caustic Soda - Last trading day, caustic soda main contract fell. The supply - demand is generally loose, and regional differences are obvious. Attention should be paid to device operation and liquid chlorine price fluctuations [47]. Pulp - Last trading day, pulp main contract fell. The supply is high, and the downstream consumption is weak. It is expected to rebound in the short term, and attention should be paid to international production cuts and domestic consumption policies [48][49]. Lithium Carbonate - Last trading day, lithium carbonate main contract rose. The supply - demand is in excess, and the price is difficult to reverse before large - scale production clearance [50]. Copper - Last trading day, Shanghai copper trended upward. The basis for copper price increase still exists, and it is recommended to go long on the main Shanghai copper contract [51][52][53]. Tin - Last trading day, Shanghai tin rose. The contradiction between the current shortage and the loose expectation exists, and the price is expected to fluctuate downward [54]. Nickel - Last trading day, Shanghai nickel fell. The supply - demand is in excess, and the price is expected to be weak [55][56]. Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - Last trading day, soybean meal closed flat, and soybean oil rose. The soybean supply is expected to be loose, and it is recommended to wait and see for soybean meal and pay attention to call option opportunities for soybean oil [57][58]. Palm Oil - Malaysian palm oil rebounded. The inventory is expected to increase, and it is recommended to exit the strategy of widening the rapeseed - palm oil spread [59][60][61]. Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity to go long on rapeseed meal after a pull - back [62][63][64]. Cotton - Last trading day, domestic cotton futures trended weakly. The market is waiting and watching due to uncertain Sino - US relations. It is recommended to trade with a light position [65][67][68]. Sugar - Last trading day, domestic sugar futures rebounded after hitting a low. The domestic inventory is low, and it is recommended to go long in batches [69][70][71]. Apple - Last trading day, domestic apple futures rebounded after hitting a low. The new - year production is uncertain, and it is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity to go long after a pull - back [72][73]. Live Pigs - Last trading day, the main live pig contract fell. The supply is increasing, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to pay attention to the second - fattening participation after the festival and consider the positive spread opportunity for the peak - season contract [73][74]. Eggs - Last trading day, the main egg contract fell. The supply is expected to increase in June, and it is recommended to short on rebounds [75][78]. Corn and Corn Starch - Last trading day, corn and corn starch main contracts rose. The domestic corn supply - demand is approaching balance, but there is short - term supply pressure. Corn starch follows the corn market, and it is recommended to wait and see [79][80][81]. Logs - Last trading day, the main log contract fell. The fundamentals have no obvious driver, and the market support for the futures price is weak [82][84].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The macro - economic recovery momentum needs to be strengthened, and the monetary policy is expected to remain loose. For different commodities, there are various investment outlooks, such as being bullish on Chinese equity assets in the long - term, expecting the long - term bull trend of precious metals to continue, and having different views on other commodities based on their supply - demand, cost, and market conditions [6][9][11]. Summary by Related Catalogs Treasury Bonds - Last trading day, most treasury bond futures closed down. The central bank conducted 454.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 375.5 billion yuan. The Caixin China Manufacturing PMI dropped, and there are uncertainties in US tariffs. It is expected that there will be no trend - based market, and caution is advised [5]. Stock Index Futures - Last trading day, stock index futures showed mixed performance. The "Regulations on the Sharing of Government Affairs Data" will be implemented. The domestic economy is stable but the recovery momentum is weak, and there are uncertainties in tariffs. However, due to low domestic asset valuations and China's economic resilience, the long - term performance of Chinese equity assets is optimistic, and going long on stock index futures can be considered [8][9]. Precious Metals - Last trading day, gold and silver futures rose. The OECD lowered the economic growth forecasts of the US and the world. The long - term bull trend of precious metals is expected to continue, and going long on gold futures can be considered [11]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils - Last trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures continued to decline. The real - estate industry's downturn suppresses demand, and the peak demand season is ending. There is a risk of further price decline, but the valuation is low. Investors can focus on short - selling opportunities [13]. Iron Ore - Last trading day, iron ore futures fell slightly. The supply - demand pattern has weakened marginally, and the valuation is relatively high. Investors can focus on low - level buying opportunities [15]. Coking Coal and Coke - Last trading day, coking coal and coke futures continued to decline. The supply of coking coal is loose, and the demand for coke is weak. The short - term decline may continue, and investors can focus on short - selling opportunities [17]. Ferroalloys - Last trading day, manganese silicon and ferrosilicon futures fell. The demand for ferroalloys is weak, and the supply is relatively high. There are opportunities in manganese silicon call options and ferrosilicon short - covering [18][19]. Crude Oil - Last trading day, INE crude oil rose and then fell. OPEC+ will increase production in July, but the pressure on oil prices is expected to ease. The oil price is expected to strengthen, and a long - position operation on the main crude oil contract can be considered [20][21]. Fuel Oil - Last trading day, fuel oil rose and then fell. The global trade demand is recovering, but the ARA region's inventory is increasing. The cost of crude oil is rising, and a long - position operation on the main fuel oil contract can be considered [23][24]. Synthetic Rubber - Last trading day, synthetic rubber futures fell. The supply pressure persists, and the demand improvement is limited. Wait for the price to stabilize and then participate in the rebound [26]. Natural Rubber - Last trading day, natural rubber futures fell. The demand is worried, and the inventory is accumulating. Wait for the price to stabilize and then consider going long [28]. PVC - Last trading day, PVC futures fell slightly. The short - term fundamentals change little, and it is in a bottom - range oscillation [31]. Urea - Last trading day, urea futures fell. The short - term cost is decreasing, and the agricultural demand has not been released. In the second half of the year, exports and agricultural demand may drive the price up, and long - positions can be considered at low prices [33]. PX - Last trading day, PX futures fell. The supply - demand structure is tight, but the PXN spread is high. It is expected to oscillate, and interval operations can be considered [36]. PTA - Last trading day, PTA futures fell. The supply - demand structure has improved, and the cost is supported. Interval operations at low prices can be considered [37][38]. Ethylene Glycol - Last trading day, ethylene glycol futures fell. The supply is increasing, but the inventory is decreasing significantly. It is expected to oscillate with strong bottom support [40]. Short - Fiber - Last trading day, short - fiber futures fell. The downstream demand is slightly improving, and it is expected to oscillate following the cost. Long - positions can be considered at low prices [41]. Bottle Chips - Last trading day, bottle - chip futures fell. The raw material price is oscillating, and the supply - demand fundamentals have improved. Participate cautiously and pay attention to cost changes [42][43]. Soda Ash - Last trading day, soda ash futures fell. The supply is expected to increase slightly, and the demand is relatively stable. The price is expected to oscillate steadily [44]. Glass - Last trading day, glass futures fell. The actual supply - demand has no obvious driver, and the market sentiment is weak [45][46]. Caustic Soda - Last trading day, caustic soda futures fell. The supply - demand is relatively loose with regional differences. Pay attention to enterprise operations and liquid chlorine prices [47]. Pulp - Last trading day, pulp futures fell. The supply is high, and the downstream consumption is weak. It is expected to rebound briefly due to tariff progress, and pay attention to international production cuts and domestic consumption policies [48][49]. Lithium Carbonate - Last trading day, lithium carbonate futures rose slightly. The supply is increasing, and the demand is weakening. The price is difficult to reverse before the large - scale clearance of mine capacity [50]. Copper - Last trading day, Shanghai copper oscillated lower. The US - China possible call is positive, and the copper tariff is uncertain. A long - position operation on the main Shanghai copper contract can be considered [51][52]. Tin - Last trading day, Shanghai tin rose. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is improving. The price is expected to oscillate with downward pressure [54]. Nickel - Last trading day, Shanghai nickel rose. The cost support is strong, but the demand is weak. The price is expected to run weakly [55]. Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - Last trading day, soybean meal futures fell, and soybean oil futures rose. The supply of soybeans is expected to be loose, and the upward pressure on soybean meal is high. For soybean oil, long - position opportunities for out - of - the - money call options can be considered at the bottom [56][58]. Palm Oil - The Malaysian palm oil market is affected by India's tax cut. The domestic palm oil inventory is accumulating. Consider exiting the strategy of widening the rapeseed - palm oil spread [59][61]. Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - The Canadian rapeseed market is affected by wildfires and tariff negotiations. The domestic rapeseed inventory is decreasing, and the rapeseed meal and oil inventories are at different levels. Consider going long on rapeseed meal after a pull - back [62][63]. Cotton - Last trading day, domestic cotton futures oscillated weakly. The Sino - US trade relations are uncertain, and the supply - demand situation is complex. Wait for a pull - back and then go long [64][66]. Sugar - Last trading day, domestic sugar futures oscillated. The Brazilian sugar production is lower than expected, and the domestic inventory is low. Consider going long in batches [68][69]. Apples - Last trading day, apple futures oscillated slightly. The new - year domestic apple production is uncertain. Consider going long after a pull - back [71][72]. Hogs - The hog price is weak. The group - farm slaughter is increasing, and the demand is weak after the Dragon Boat Festival. Consider a long - spread operation on the peak - season contract [73][75]. Eggs - Last trading day, egg prices fell. The egg production is increasing, and the profit is low. Consider short - selling after a rebound [76][77]. Corn and Starch - Last trading day, corn and corn starch futures fell. The domestic corn supply - demand is approaching balance, but there is short - term supply pressure. Corn starch follows the corn market, and temporary observation is recommended [78][80]. Logs - Last trading day, log futures rose slightly. The fundamentals have no obvious driver, and the market transaction is light [81][83].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - The macro - economic recovery momentum needs to be strengthened, and the monetary policy is expected to remain loose. Different commodities have different market trends and investment suggestions due to various factors such as supply - demand, cost, and policy [5][6]. Summary by Commodity Bonds - Last trading day, bond futures closed up across the board. The central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations, and the manufacturing and non - manufacturing PMIs showed certain changes. The US extended the exemption period for the 301 investigation on China. It is expected that there will be no trend - based market, and caution is advised [5][6][7]. Stock Index Futures - Last trading day, stock index futures showed mixed performance. The sales of TOP100 real - estate enterprises declined. Although the domestic economic recovery momentum is weak, the long - term performance of Chinese equity assets is still optimistic, and it is advisable to consider going long on stock index futures [8][9][10]. Precious Metals - Last trading day, gold futures rose, and silver futures fell slightly. The global trade and financial environment is complex, and the long - term bull market trend of precious metals is expected to continue. It is advisable to consider going long on gold futures [11][12]. Steel Products (including rebar and hot - rolled coil) - Last trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures showed weak oscillations. The real - estate industry's downturn suppresses demand, but the current price valuation is low. It is advisable to pay attention to short - selling opportunities [13]. Iron Ore - Last trading day, iron ore futures showed weak oscillations. The supply - demand pattern has weakened marginally, but the valuation is relatively high. It is advisable to pay attention to buying opportunities at low levels [15]. Coking Coal and Coke - Last trading day, coking coal and coke futures continued to decline. The supply of coking coal is loose, and the demand for coke is weak. It is advisable to pay attention to short - selling opportunities [17]. Ferroalloys - Last trading day, manganese - silicon and silicon - iron futures declined. The demand for ferroalloys is weak, and the supply is relatively high. For manganese - silicon, it is advisable to pay attention to the opportunity of out - of - the - money call options; for silicon - iron, short - sellers can consider exiting at the bottom [18][19]. Crude Oil - Last trading day, INE crude oil fell sharply. OPEC + plans to increase production in July, but the oil price is expected to rebound. It is advisable to consider long - position operations on the main crude - oil contract [20][21][22]. Fuel Oil - Last trading day, fuel oil fell sharply. The global trade demand is recovering, and the inventory decline supports the price. It is advisable to consider long - position operations on the main fuel - oil contract [23][24][25]. Synthetic Rubber - Last trading day, synthetic rubber futures fell. The supply pressure persists, and the demand improvement is limited. Wait for the price to stabilize and then participate in the rebound [26][27]. Natural Rubber - Last trading day, natural rubber futures showed mixed performance. The demand is worried, and the inventory is accumulating. Wait for the price to stabilize and then consider long - position opportunities [28][29][30]. PVC - Last trading day, PVC futures rose slightly. The short - term fundamentals change little, and it mainly fluctuates with the macro - sentiment. It is in a bottom - range oscillation [31]. Urea - Last trading day, urea futures fell. The short - term cost is decreasing, and the agricultural demand has not been released. It is advisable to consider going long at low levels [32][33][34]. PX - Last trading day, PX futures fell. The supply - demand structure is tight, but the PXN spread has recovered. It is advisable to trade with an oscillation mindset and pay attention to the cost and policies [35]. PTA - Last trading day, PTA futures fell. The supply - demand structure has improved, and the cost is supported. It is advisable to operate in the low - range [36][37]. Ethylene Glycol - Last trading day, ethylene glycol futures rose. The supply is increasing, and the inventory is slightly decreasing. The short - term supply - demand game intensifies, and it is expected to oscillate [38]. Short - Fiber - Last trading day, short - fiber futures fell. The downstream demand is slightly improving, and the cost is supportive. It is advisable to participate cautiously at low levels [39]. Bottle Chips - Last trading day, bottle - chip futures fell. The raw - material cost is supportive, and the supply - demand fundamentals have improved. It is advisable to participate cautiously and pay attention to the cost [40][41]. Soda Ash - Last trading day, soda - ash futures fell. The long - term supply exceeds demand, and the price is expected to oscillate steadily [42]. Glass - Last trading day, glass futures fell. The actual supply - demand fundamentals have no obvious driving force, and the market sentiment is weak [43][44][45]. Caustic Soda - Last trading day, caustic - soda futures fell. The supply - demand is relatively loose, and regional differences are obvious. Attention should be paid to enterprise operations and liquid - chlorine prices [46]. Pulp - Last trading day, pulp futures rose. The domestic and international supply is abundant, and the downstream consumption is weak. The price is expected to rebound briefly and then pay attention to production cuts and consumption - stimulating policies [47][48]. Lithium Carbonate - Last trading day, lithium - carbonate futures rose. The supply - demand surplus situation remains unchanged, and the price is difficult to reverse before the large - scale clearance of mine capacity [49]. Copper - Last trading day, Shanghai copper futures fell. The US trade policy is changeable, but the basis for copper price increase still exists. It is advisable to consider long - position operations on Shanghai copper futures [50][51]. Tin - Last trading day, Shanghai tin futures fell. The supply is expected to increase, and the price is expected to oscillate downward [52]. Nickel - Last trading day, Shanghai nickel futures rose. The cost support is weakening, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to run weakly [53]. Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - Last trading day, soybean - meal futures rose, and soybean - oil futures fell. The supply of soybeans is expected to be loose, and it is advisable to wait and see for soybean meal; for soybean oil, consider out - of - the - money call options at the bottom [54][55]. Palm Oil - The BMD palm - oil market had certain fluctuations. The inventory is at a relatively low level. It is advisable to consider the opportunity of expanding the spread between rapeseed - palm oil and soybean - palm oil [56][57][58]. Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - Canadian rapeseed futures fell. The domestic inventory situation is different for rapeseed, rapeseed meal, and rapeseed oil. It is advisable to consider long - position opportunities after the decline of rapeseed meal [59][60]. Cotton - Last trading day, domestic cotton futures showed weak oscillations. The Sino - US trade relationship is uncertain. It is advisable to operate with a light position and consider long - position after the decline [61][62][63]. Sugar - Last trading day, domestic sugar futures fell. The Brazilian production is low, and the domestic inventory is low. Consider going long in batches [64][65][66]. Apple - Last trading day, domestic apple futures recovered from the bottom. The new - year production is uncertain. Consider long - position opportunities after the decline [67][68][69]. Live Pigs - The pig price showed certain fluctuations. The supply and demand are in a complex situation. Consider the positive - spread opportunity of the peak - season contract [70][71]. Eggs - Last trading day, egg futures rose. The supply is expected to increase in June. Consider short - selling after the rebound [72][73]. Corn and Corn Starch - Last trading day, corn and corn - starch futures rose. The domestic corn supply - demand is approaching balance, and it is advisable to wait and see for corn starch [74][75]. Logs - Last trading day, log futures rose. The supply is increasing, and the market has no obvious driving force [76][77].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The macro - economic recovery momentum needs to be strengthened, and the monetary policy is expected to remain loose. It is recommended to be cautious about treasury bonds, optimistic about the long - term performance of Chinese equity assets, and consider going long on stock index futures. For various commodities, different investment strategies are proposed based on their respective fundamentals and market conditions [6][9]. Summary by Related Catalogs Treasury Bonds - Last trading day, treasury bond futures closed down across the board. The 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year main contracts fell by 0.65%, 0.26%, 0.15%, and 0.06% respectively. The Fed is cautious about interest rate cuts, and the US government's tariff policy is uncertain. It is expected that there will be no trend - based market, and one should remain cautious [5][7]. Stock Index - Last trading day, stock index futures showed mixed performance. The main contracts of IF, IH, IC, and IM changed by 0.68%, 0.25%, 1.89%, and 2.35% respectively. Although the domestic economic recovery momentum is weak, the long - term performance of Chinese equity assets is still promising. Considering the significant progress of the Sino - US trade agreement, one can consider going long on stock index futures [8][9][10]. Precious Metals - Last trading day, the main contracts of gold and silver showed declines. The "de - globalization" and "de - dollarization" trends are beneficial to the allocation and hedging value of gold. The long - term bull market trend of precious metals is expected to continue, and one can consider going long on gold futures [11][12]. Steel Products (including Rebar, Hot - Rolled Coil) - Last trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures showed weak oscillations. The real - estate industry's downward trend has not reversed, and the demand for rebar is declining. There is a risk of further price decline, but the valuation is low, and there are signs of a stop - fall. Investors can focus on short - selling opportunities [13][14]. Iron Ore - Last trading day, iron ore futures rebounded slightly. The supply - demand pattern has weakened marginally, but the valuation is high. It has found support near the previous low. Investors can focus on low - level buying opportunities [16]. Coking Coal and Coke - Last trading day, coking coal and coke futures continued to decline. The supply of coking coal is loose, and the demand for coke has weakened. The futures have reached new lows, and investors can focus on short - selling opportunities [18][19]. Ferroalloys - Last trading day, the main contracts of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon declined. The demand for ferroalloys is weak, and the supply is relatively high. One can consider opportunities for out - of - the - money call options on manganese silicon and exiting short positions on ferrosilicon [21][22]. Crude Oil - Last trading day, INE crude oil rose significantly. The OPEC + meeting is approaching, and there are concerns about oversupply. The US tariff policy is uncertain. It is suitable for short - term operations, and one can temporarily observe the main contract [23][24][25]. Fuel Oil - Last trading day, fuel oil showed a trend of rising and then falling, with a relatively strong performance. The cost - side crude oil is expected to rise due to the OPEC meeting, and the court's ruling on tariffs is beneficial to fuel oil prices. One can temporarily observe the main contract [26][27][28]. Synthetic Rubber - Last trading day, the main contract of synthetic rubber rose slightly. The supply pressure persists, the demand improvement is limited, and the cost has declined. It is expected to continue to oscillate weakly [29][30]. Natural Rubber - Last trading day, the main contract of natural rubber showed mixed performance. The demand side is worried about the future, and the inventory has increased against the season. One should wait for the market to stabilize and temporarily observe [31][33]. PVC - Last trading day, the main contract of PVC declined. The short - term fundamentals change little, and it fluctuates with the macro - sentiment. It is expected to oscillate at the bottom [34][36]. Urea - Last trading day, the main contract of urea declined. In the short term, the cost has decreased, and the demand has not been released. In the second half of the year, exports and agricultural demand may drive the price to rise. One can consider going long at low levels [37][39]. PX - Last trading day, the main contract of PX rose. The supply - demand structure is tight, and the PXN spread has support. It should be treated with a cautious and bullish mindset [40]. PTA - Last trading day, the main contract of PTA rose. The supply - demand structure has improved, and the cost has support. It may oscillate and strengthen in the short term, and one can operate in the low - level range [41][42]. Ethylene Glycol - Last trading day, the main contract of ethylene glycol rose. The supply has increased, the inventory has decreased slightly, and the demand has improved. It is expected to oscillate and adjust, and one should pay attention to inventory and policy changes [43]. Short - Fiber - Last trading day, the main contract of short - fiber rose. The downstream demand has slightly recovered, and the cost has a driving force. It is expected to oscillate and strengthen following the cost, and one can participate cautiously at low levels [44]. Bottle Chips - Last trading day, the main contract of bottle chips rose. The raw material cost has support, and the supply - demand fundamentals have improved. It is expected to oscillate following the cost, and one should participate cautiously [45]. Soda Ash - Last trading day, the main contract of soda ash declined. The long - term supply exceeds demand, and the inventory is sufficient. It is expected to oscillate steadily [46]. Glass - Last trading day, the main contract of glass declined. The actual supply - demand fundamentals have no obvious driving force, and the market sentiment is weak [47][50]. Caustic Soda - Last trading day, the main contract of caustic soda declined. The supply - demand is relatively loose, with obvious regional differences. One should pay attention to device operations and liquid chlorine prices [51]. Pulp - Last trading day, the main contract of pulp rose slightly. The domestic and international supply is abundant, but the downstream consumption is weak. It is expected to rebound briefly, and one should pay attention to production cuts and consumption - stimulating policies [52]. Lithium Carbonate - Last trading day, the main contract of lithium carbonate declined. The supply is increasing, the demand is weakening, and the supply - demand surplus situation has not changed significantly. The price is difficult to reverse before the large - scale clearance of mine capacity [53]. Copper - Last trading day, Shanghai copper oscillated higher. The court's ruling on tariffs is beneficial to the market sentiment, and there is a basis for copper price increase. One can operate with a long - bias on the main contract [54][55]. Tin - Last trading day, Shanghai tin declined. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is improving. The price is expected to face pressure and oscillate downward [56]. Nickel - Last trading day, Shanghai nickel rose. The cost has support, but the downstream demand is weak. The supply - demand surplus situation may continue, and one should pay attention to opportunities after the macro - sentiment recovers [57]. Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - Last trading day, the main contracts of soybean oil and soybean meal declined. The supply of soybeans is expected to be loose, the upward pressure on soybean meal is high, and one can observe. The downward space of soybean oil is limited, and one can consider out - of - the - money call options [58][59]. Palm Oil - Malaysian palm oil has risen for five consecutive days. Malaysia plans to increase the biodiesel blending ratio. One can focus on opportunities to widen the spreads between rapeseed oil and palm oil and between soybean oil and palm oil [60][61]. Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - The Canadian rapeseed market is mixed. The domestic inventory of rapeseed, rapeseed meal, and rapeseed oil is at a low or high level in recent years. One can focus on buying opportunities for rapeseed meal after a pull - back [62][63][64]. Cotton - Last trading day, domestic cotton futures declined slightly. The suspension of tariffs is beneficial to cotton exports. The supply - demand situation is complex, and one can wait for a pull - back to go long [65][68][69]. Sugar - Last trading day, domestic sugar futures declined slightly. The Brazilian sugar production is lower than expected, and the domestic inventory is low. One can operate within the oscillation range [70][71][72]. Apples - Last trading day, domestic apple futures oscillated. There are signs of production reduction in some areas, and the inventory is lower than last year. One can focus on buying opportunities after a pull - back [72][73]. Live Pigs - Last trading day, the main contract of live pigs rose. The supply is increasing, and the demand is weak after the Dragon Boat Festival. One can consider positive spreads on the peak - season contracts [74][77]. Eggs - Last trading day, the price of eggs was stable. The egg production capacity is increasing, and the price decline risk has been released in the main contract. One can consider short - selling after a rebound [78][79]. Corn and Starch - Last trading day, the main contracts of corn and corn starch rose. The domestic corn supply - demand is approaching balance, but there is short - term supply pressure. Corn starch follows the corn market, and one can temporarily observe [80][81][82]. Logs - Last trading day, the main contract of logs rose slightly. The expected arrival volume at ports has increased, and the spot price has declined. The market has no obvious driving force, and the support for the futures price is weak [83][84].