2026 年 2 月 27 日星期五 重庆市江北区金沙门路 32 号 23 层； 023-67071029 上海市浦东新区世纪大道 210 号 10 楼 1001； 021-61101854 | 目录 | | --- | | 纸浆： 15 | | 碳酸锂： 16 | | --- | | 铜： 17 | | 铝： 17 | | 锌： 18 | | 铅： 18 | | 锡： 18 | | 镍： 19 | | 豆油、豆粕： 19 | | 棕榈油： 20 | | 菜粕、菜油： 21 | | 棉花： 21 | | 白糖： 22 | | 苹果： 23 | | 生猪： 24 | | 鸡蛋： 24 | | 玉米&淀粉： 25 | | 原木： 26 | | 免责声明 27 | 国债： 上一交易日，国债期货收盘全线下跌，30 年期主力合约跌 0.53%报 112.090 元， 10 年期主力合约跌 0.10%报 108.370 元，5 年期主力合约跌 0.08%报 105.980 元，2 年 期主力合约跌 0.03%报 102.432 元。 地址： 电话： 1 市场有风险 投资需谨慎 公开市场方面，央行公告称，2 月 26 日以 ...

2026 年 2 月 26 日星期四 重庆市江北区金沙门路 32 号 23 层； 023-67071029 国债： 上一交易日，国债期货收盘全线下跌，30 年期主力合约跌 0.47%报 112.700 元， 10 年期主力合约跌 0.13%报 108.480 元，5 年期主力合约跌 0.10%报 106.065 元，2 年 期主力合约跌 0.06%报 102.458 元。 上海市浦东新区世纪大道 210 号 10 楼 1001； 021-61101854 地址： 电话： 1 市场有风险 投资需谨慎 | 目录 | | --- | | 纸浆： 16 | | 碳酸锂： 16 | | --- | | 铜： 17 | | 铝： 17 | | 锌： 18 | | 铅： 18 | | 锡： 19 | | 镍： 19 | | 豆油、豆粕： 20 | | 棕榈油： 21 | | 菜粕、菜油： 21 | | 棉花： 22 | | 白糖： 23 | | 苹果： 24 | | 生猪： 24 | | 鸡蛋： 25 | | 玉米&淀粉： 25 | | 原木： 26 | | 免责声明 27 | 公开市场方面，央行公告称，2 月 25 日以 ...

2026 年 2 月 25 日星期三 重庆市江北区金沙门路 32 号 23 层； 023-67071029 上海市浦东新区世纪大道 210 号 10 楼 1001； 021-61101854 地址： 电话： 1 市场有风险 投资需谨慎 | 目录 | | --- | | 纸浆： 15 | | 碳酸锂： 16 | | --- | | 铜： 16 | | 铝： 17 | | 锌： 17 | | 铅： 18 | | 锡： 18 | | 镍： 19 | | 豆油、豆粕： 19 | | 棕榈油： 20 | | 菜粕、菜油： 20 | | 棉花： 21 | | 白糖： 22 | | 苹果： 23 | | 生猪： 24 | | 鸡蛋： 24 | | 玉米&淀粉： 25 | | 原木： 26 | | 免责声明 27 | 国债： 上一交易日，国债期货收盘全线上涨，30 年期主力合约涨 0.20%报 112.960 元， 10 年期主力合约涨 0.02%报 108.500 元，5 年期主力合约涨 0.07%报 106.175 元，2 年 期主力合约涨 0.02%报 102.450 元。 公开市场方面，央行公告称，2 月 24 日以 ...

2026 年 2 月 24 日星期二 重庆市江北区金沙门路 32 号 23 层； 023-67071029 上海市浦东新区世纪大道 210 号 10 楼 1001； 021-61101854 地址： 电话： 1 市场有风险 投资需谨慎 | 目录 | | --- | | 纸浆： 16 | | 碳酸锂： 16 | | --- | | 铜： 17 | | 铝： 17 | | 锌： 18 | | 铅： 18 | | 锡： 19 | | 镍： 19 | | 豆油、豆粕： 20 | | 棕榈油： 20 | | 菜粕、菜油： 21 | | 棉花： 22 | | 白糖： 23 | | 苹果： 24 | | 生猪： 24 | | 鸡蛋： 25 | | 玉米&淀粉： 26 | | 原木： 26 | | 免责声明 28 | 上一交易日，国债期货收盘多数下跌，30 年期主力合约涨 0.04%报 112.840 元， 10 年期主力合约跌 0.10%报 108.505 元，5 年期主力合约跌 0.09%报 105.975 元，2 年 期主力合约跌 0.03%报 102.436 元。 公开市场方面，央行公告称，2 月 13 日以固定利率 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Treasury Bonds**: Expected to face some pressure, maintain a cautious stance [5][6]. - **Stock Index Futures**: The volatility center is expected to gradually move up, and previous long positions can be held. Pay attention to risk control during the Spring Festival [7][8]. - **Precious Metals**: Market volatility will significantly increase, and it is advisable to exit long positions and wait and see [9]. - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: Prices may continue the weak - oscillating pattern. Investors can look for opportunities to go long on pullbacks and pay attention to position management [10][11]. - **Iron Ore**: The supply - demand pattern is weak, and it may continue to oscillate in the short term. Investors can look for opportunities to go long on pullbacks and pay attention to position management [13]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: May continue the oscillating pattern in the medium term. Investors can look for low - buying opportunities and pay attention to position management [15]. - **Ferroalloys**: There may be opportunities to go long in the low - range. Consider the low - cost and rigid cost conditions [18]. - **Crude Oil**: There is some progress in US - Iran negotiations, but geopolitical risks remain. It is advisable to hold light positions during the Spring Festival. Exit and wait and see on the main contract [19][20][21]. - **Fuel Oil**: The supply shortage in Singapore has eased, but there is still room for an upward movement due to the unresolved Iran risk. Hold light positions during the Spring Festival. Exit and wait and see on the main contract [22][23]. - **Polyolefins**: Be cautious in pre - holiday operations [25]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: Expected to be strong and oscillating [27]. - **Natural Rubber**: Control positions before the holiday [30]. - **PVC**: Expected to be strong and oscillating [32]. - **Urea**: Expected to be oscillating and strong [33]. - **PX**: May oscillate and adjust in the short term. Be cautious and pay attention to external market fluctuations during the Spring Festival [34]. - **PTA**: May oscillate, with a small inventory build - up expected. Be cautious, and pay attention to the resumption of downstream factories after the holiday [35]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: There is still pressure above, and it may maintain an oscillating bottom - building pattern. Be cautious and pay attention to port inventory and supply changes [36]. - **Short - Fiber**: Trade based on the cost - end logic before the holiday. Be cautious and pay attention to cost changes and downstream pre - holiday inventory [37]. - **Bottle Chips**: Follow the cost - end trend. Be cautious before the holiday and pay attention to the implementation of maintenance devices and external market changes during the holiday [38]. - **Soda Ash**: Be cautious due to the off - season fundamentals. Hold light positions during the holiday [39]. - **Glass**: The market is generally loose. Be cautious and hold light positions during the holiday, paying attention to the return to fundamentals [40]. - **Caustic Soda**: The inventory situation has slightly improved. Be cautious and hold light positions during the holiday [41]. - **Pulp**: The port inventory is accumulating, but the impact on pre - holiday prices is temporarily dull. Hold light positions during the holiday [42][43]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: There is strong support below, but short - term fluctuations may increase. Control risks [44]. - **Copper**: May experience a weak adjustment before the holiday [45][46]. - **Aluminum**: May be under pressure [47][48]. - **Zinc**: Will enter an adjustment period [49][50][51]. - **Lead**: Expected to be weakly oscillating [52][53]. - **Tin**: There is support below, but short - term fluctuations may intensify. Control risks [54]. - **Nickel**: The first - grade nickel is in an oversupply situation. Pay attention to Indonesian policies [55][56]. - **Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal**: Soybean meal can look for long opportunities in the low - cost support range; for soybean oil, wait and see after the price leaves the low - cost range [57][58]. - **Palm Oil**: Consider looking for long opportunities after a pullback [59][60]. - **Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil**: Temporarily wait and see [61][62][63]. - **Cotton**: In the short term, the domestic market is under pressure, but in the medium - to - long term, the price is expected to be strong. Wait and see before the holiday [64][65]. - **Sugar**: Expected to be weak in the medium term [66][67][68]. - **Apples**: In the short term, wait and see before the holiday. In the medium - to - long term, the price is expected to be strong [68]. - **Hogs**: Wait and see before the holiday due to the supply - demand imbalance [69][70]. - **Eggs**: Wait and see before the holiday and short on rallies after the holiday [71]. - **Corn and Starch**: Corn starch may follow the corn market. Wait for the release of post - holiday supply pressure [72][74]. - **Logs**: The future demand expectation is weak, and the fundamentals are under pressure. Hold light positions during the holiday [75][76]. 3. Summary by Directory Pulp - The main 2605 contract closed at 5238 yuan/ton, up 0.19%. The port inventory continued to accumulate, and the domestic supply also increased slightly. The downstream pre - holiday procurement ended, and the market entered a demand vacuum period. Hold light positions during the holiday [42][43]. Carbonate Lithium - The main contract rose 3.66% to 149,420 yuan/ton. The supply is in a tight balance, the consumption side has improved, and the social inventory is gradually decreasing. There is strong support below, but short - term fluctuations may increase [44]. Copper - The Shanghai copper main contract closed at 100,030 yuan/ton, down 2.56%. The market sentiment declined, and the fundamentals weakened. The copper price may experience a weak adjustment before the holiday [45][46]. Aluminum - The Shanghai aluminum main contract closed at 23,395 yuan/ton, down 0.91%; the alumina main contract closed at 2,811 yuan/ton, down 0.46%. The alumina is bearish, and the aluminum price may be under pressure [47][48]. Zinc - The Shanghai zinc main contract closed at 24,435 yuan/ton, down 0.63%. The zinc market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand, and the zinc price will enter an adjustment period [49][50][51]. Lead - The Shanghai lead main contract closed at 16,705 yuan/ton, down 0.3%. The lead market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand, and the price is expected to be weakly oscillating [52][53]. Tin - The Shanghai tin main contract fell 4.27% to 376,330 yuan/ton. The supply - demand is tight, and there is support below, but short - term fluctuations may intensify [54]. Nickel - The Shanghai nickel main contract fell 3.74% to 135,070 yuan/ton. The first - grade nickel is in an oversupply situation, and the cost is expected to rise. Pay attention to Indonesian policies [55][56]. Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - The soybean meal main contract rose 1.16% to 2,290 yuan/ton, and the soybean oil main contract fell 0.22% to 8,082 yuan/ton. The soybean meal demand continues to grow moderately, and the soybean oil demand has slightly improved [57][58]. Palm Oil - The Malaysian palm oil fell for the third consecutive trading day. The supply may increase, and the export decreased. Consider looking for long opportunities after a pullback [59][60]. Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - The Canadian rapeseed followed the rise of US soybean oil futures but did not break through the resistance level. The Chinese import situation has changed, and it is advisable to wait and see for now [61][63]. Cotton - The domestic Zheng cotton oscillated. The USDA February supply - demand report is bearish. In the short term, the domestic market is under pressure, but in the medium - to - long term, the price is expected to be strong. Wait and see before the holiday [64][65]. Sugar - The Zheng sugar rose and then fell; the overnight external raw sugar fell to a new low. India has a strong production increase expectation, and the domestic market faces dual supply pressure. It is expected to be weak in the medium term [66][67][68]. Apples - The domestic apple futures oscillated. The current market is in a vacuum period. In the short term, wait and see before the holiday. In the medium - to - long term, the price is expected to be strong [68]. Hogs - The main contract rose 0.13% to 11,540 yuan/ton. The market is in a situation of oversupply, and it is advisable to wait and see before the holiday [69][70]. Eggs - The main contract rose 1.56% to 3,200 yuan/500kg. The supply in February may remain at a relatively high level. Wait and see before the holiday and short on rallies after the holiday [71]. Corn and Starch - The corn main contract rose 0.83% to 2,320 yuan/ton; the corn starch main contract rose 0.51% to 2,572 yuan/ton. The corn starch may follow the corn market. Wait for the release of post - holiday supply pressure [72][74]. Logs - The main 2603 contract closed at 779.5 yuan/ton, up 0.45%. The shipping volume has recovered, but the downstream demand is weakening. The future demand expectation is weak, and the fundamentals are under pressure. Hold light positions during the holiday [75][76].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - For Treasury bonds, it is expected that there will still be some pressure, and caution should be maintained [6][7]. - For stock index futures, it is expected that the volatility center will gradually move up, and previous long positions can continue to be held [8][9]. - For precious metals, market volatility is expected to increase significantly, and long positions can be liquidated for observation [10]. - For rebar and hot - rolled coils, prices may continue to fluctuate weakly, and investors can pay attention to opportunities to go long on pullbacks [11][12]. - For iron ore, the market supply - demand pattern is weak, and it may continue to fluctuate in the short term. Investors can pay attention to opportunities to go long on pullbacks [14]. - For coking coal and coke, they may continue to fluctuate in the medium term, and investors can pay attention to low - level buying opportunities [15]. - For ferroalloys, overall excess pressure continues, and after a decline, attention can be paid to long opportunities in the low - level range [17]. - For crude oil, the rebound is expected to continue, and investors can pay attention to long opportunities in the main contract [19][20]. - For fuel oil, the upside still has room, and investors can pay attention to long opportunities in the main contract [21][22]. - For polyolefins, cautious operations are recommended before the Spring Festival [24][25]. - For synthetic rubber, it is expected to fluctuate strongly [26][27]. - For natural rubber, control positions before the Spring Festival [28][30]. - For PVC, it is expected to fluctuate strongly [31][32]. - For urea, it is expected to fluctuate strongly [33][34]. - For PX, it may fluctuate and adjust in the short term, and cautious participation is recommended [35]. - For PTA, it may fluctuate in the short term, and 1 - 2 months are expected to see a slight inventory build - up. Cautious operations are recommended [36][37]. - For ethylene glycol, it may maintain a pattern of bottom - building fluctuations, and cautious operations are recommended [38]. - For short - fiber, trading is based on the cost - side logic before the Spring Festival, and cautious observation is recommended [39][41]. - For bottle chips, it is expected to follow the cost - side operation, and cautious participation is recommended before the Spring Festival [41]. - For soda ash, it should still be treated with caution [42]. - For glass, it is expected to fluctuate before the Spring Festival [43]. - For caustic soda, it should be treated with caution, and attention should be paid to the risk of position transfer [44]. - For pulp, it is expected that the pre - holiday market will have limited fluctuations [45]. - For lithium carbonate, the downside support is still strong, but short - term fluctuations may increase [46]. - For copper, the price may be weakly adjusted before the Spring Festival [47][48]. - For aluminum, the price may be under pressure [49][50]. - For zinc, the price will enter an adjustment period [51][52][53]. - For lead, it is expected to fluctuate weakly [54][55]. - For tin, the price has support below, but short - term fluctuations may intensify [56]. - For nickel, the first - grade nickel is still in an oversupply pattern, and follow - up attention should be paid to relevant policies in Indonesia [57][58]. - For soybean oil and soybean meal, for soybean meal, attention can be paid to long opportunities in the low - cost support range; for soybean oil, observation is recommended after the price leaves the low - cost range [59][60]. - For palm oil, attention can be paid to long opportunities after pullbacks [61][62]. - For rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil, temporary observation is recommended [63][64]. - For cotton, it is expected that the medium - and long - term price will be strong, but there is pressure on the domestic market in the short term. Observation is recommended before the Spring Festival [65][67]. - For sugar, it is expected to be weak in the medium term [68][69][70]. - For apples, it is expected that the medium - and long - term price will be strong. Observation is recommended before the Spring Festival, and partial long positions can be taken after pullbacks [70][71]. - For live pigs, observation is recommended before the Spring Festival [72][73]. - For eggs, observation is recommended before the Spring Festival, and short positions can be taken at high prices after the festival [74]. - For corn and starch, corn starch may follow the corn market, and wait patiently for the release of post - holiday supply pressure [75][77]. - For logs, the future demand expectation is still weak, and the fundamentals are under pressure [78][79]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Treasury Bonds - On the previous trading day, Treasury bond futures closed with differentiated performance. The central bank carried out reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 40.35 billion yuan on that day. China's January CPI and PPI data showed certain trends. The current macro - economic recovery momentum needs to be strengthened, and it is expected that the monetary policy will remain loose. Treasury bond yields are at a relatively low level, and the Treasury bond futures are expected to face some pressure [5][6]. Stock Index Futures - On the previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed trends. The domestic economy is stable, but the recovery momentum is not strong, and corporate profit growth is at a low level. However, domestic asset valuations are at a low level, and the market sentiment has warmed up recently. It is expected that the volatility center of the stock index will gradually move up, and previous long positions can continue to be held. Attention should be paid to risk control during the Spring Festival [8][9]. Precious Metals - On the previous trading day, gold and silver futures rose. The current global trade and financial environment is complex, which is beneficial to the allocation and hedging value of gold. Central bank gold - buying behavior also supports the gold price. However, the recent sharp rise in precious metals has led to a significant increase in speculative sentiment, and market volatility is expected to increase [10]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils - On the previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures fluctuated weakly. In the medium term, the price of finished products is dominated by the industrial supply - demand logic. The demand for rebar is declining year - on - year, and the market is in the off - season. The supply pressure still exists, and the inventory is higher than last year. The price may continue to fluctuate weakly, and investors can pay attention to opportunities to go long on pullbacks [11][12]. Iron Ore - On the previous trading day, iron ore futures fluctuated and sorted. The demand for iron ore is at a low level, the supply is in a certain situation, and the port inventory is at the highest level in the same period in the past five years. The market supply - demand pattern is weak, and it may continue to fluctuate in the short term. Investors can pay attention to opportunities to go long on pullbacks [14]. Coking Coal and Coke - On the previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures continued to pull back. The supply of coking coal decreased, and the demand of downstream coke enterprises was cautious. The supply of coke was stable, but the demand was weak. They may continue to fluctuate in the medium term, and investors can pay attention to low - level buying opportunities [15]. Ferroalloys - On the previous trading day, manganese silicon and silicon iron futures showed different trends. The supply of manganese ore is gradually recovering, and the cost of ferroalloys fluctuates in a narrow range at a low level. The production of ferroalloys is at a low level, the demand is weak, and the overall excess pressure continues. After a decline, attention can be paid to long opportunities in the low - level range [17]. Crude Oil - On the previous trading day, INE crude oil fluctuated upward due to the repeated relationship between the US and Iran. Relevant data showed that speculators increased their net long positions in US crude oil futures and options, and the number of active oil and gas rigs in the US increased. Geopolitical risks increased, and the rebound of crude oil is expected to continue. Investors can pay attention to long opportunities in the main contract [18][19][20]. Fuel Oil - On the previous trading day, fuel oil fluctuated upward. The Asian fuel oil market is weak, but the cost - side crude oil rebound drives the fuel oil price to rise. The risk in Iran is unresolved, and there is still room for the upside of fuel oil. Investors can pay attention to long opportunities in the main contract [21][22]. Polyolefins - On the previous trading day, the price of polyolefins showed certain trends. As the Spring Festival approaches, the demand in the market will be greatly reduced, while some suppliers still actively ship. Cautious operations are recommended before the Spring Festival [23][24][25]. Synthetic Rubber - On the previous trading day, synthetic rubber futures rose. The raw material price rebounded, the supply capacity utilization rate was at a high level, the demand of tire enterprises decreased, and the inventory decreased but was still at a medium - high level. It is expected to fluctuate strongly [26][27]. Natural Rubber - On the previous trading day, natural rubber futures rose. After the previous pullback, it showed a strong - side fluctuation before the Spring Festival. The supply is expected to shrink, and attention should be paid to the demand recovery after the festival. Control positions before the Spring Festival [28][30]. PVC - On the previous trading day, PVC futures rose. The price trend and inventory reduction speed depend on the demand recovery after the Spring Festival. The supply is at a high level, the demand is weak, and the cost supports the price. It is expected to fluctuate strongly [31][32]. Urea - On the previous trading day, urea futures rose. The supply is at a high level, the demand is weakening, and the cost is stable. The inventory decreased slightly. It is expected to fluctuate strongly [33][34]. PX - On the previous trading day, PX futures rose. The PXN spread and short - process profit were slightly compressed, the operating rate increased slightly, and the cost - side crude oil may have a driving force. It may fluctuate and adjust in the short term, and cautious participation is recommended [35]. PTA - On the previous trading day, PTA futures rose. The supply side changed little, the demand side entered the Spring Festival holiday mode, and the cost - side support was limited. The processing fee was adjusted to the average level of previous years, and it may fluctuate in the short term. 1 - 2 months are expected to see a slight inventory build - up, and cautious operations are recommended [36][37]. Ethylene Glycol - On the previous trading day, ethylene glycol futures rose. The overall load continued to rise, the port inventory continued to build up, the downstream polyester was in seasonal maintenance, and the terminal loom load dropped to the lowest point. It may maintain a pattern of bottom - building fluctuations, and cautious operations are recommended [38]. Short - Fiber - On the previous trading day, short - fiber futures rose. As the Spring Festival approaches, the supply contracts, the terminal factory restocking decreases, and the loom load drops to the lowest point. The low inventory may provide bottom support. Trading is based on the cost - side logic before the Spring Festival, and cautious observation is recommended [39][41]. Bottle Chips - On the previous trading day, bottle chip futures rose. The load decreased slightly, there will be concentrated production cuts around the Spring Festival, the supply is expected to shrink, the export growth rate increases, and it is expected to follow the cost - side operation. Cautious participation is recommended before the Spring Festival [41]. Soda Ash - On the previous trading day, soda ash futures closed flat. The fundamentals continued to be loose, the production decreased slightly, the inventory increased slightly, and the downstream demand was weak. It should still be treated with caution [42]. Glass - On the previous trading day, glass futures fell. The inventory of traders continued to build up, and the market was in a loose state. It is expected to fluctuate before the Spring Festival [43]. Caustic Soda - On the previous trading day, caustic soda futures rose. The supply was at a high level, the inventory was at a high level historically, and the supply - demand contradiction was not alleviated. The short - term rise was due to the entry of futures - cash merchants, and it should be treated with caution, and attention should be paid to the risk of position transfer [44]. Pulp - On the previous trading day, pulp futures rose. The inventory continued to build up, the domestic supply increased slightly, the downstream demand was divided, and the market was inactive. It is expected that the pre - holiday market will have limited fluctuations [45]. Lithium Carbonate - On the previous trading day, lithium carbonate futures rose. The domestic production resumption time in Jiangxi is still uncertain, the supply is in a tight - balance state, the demand of the energy - storage sector is prominent, and the inventory is gradually being depleted. The downside support is still strong, but short - term fluctuations may increase [46]. Copper - On the previous trading day, copper futures rose. The capital market risk preference decreased, the terminal and processing enterprises completed pre - holiday restocking, the smelting production was at a high level, and the inventory was in the seasonal build - up stage. The price may be weakly adjusted before the Spring Festival [47][48]. Aluminum - On the previous trading day, aluminum futures fell slightly, and alumina futures closed flat. The cost support of alumina is not strong, the supply - demand surplus pattern remains unchanged, the aluminum production changes little, and the inventory build - up amplitude increases. The aluminum price may be under pressure [49][50]. Zinc - On the previous trading day, zinc futures fell slightly. The zinc market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand, the traditional seasonal inventory build - up is late, and the price will enter an adjustment period [51][52][53]. Lead - On the previous trading day, lead futures rose slightly. The supply is expected to be loose after the festival, the demand is weak, and the inventory is steadily increasing. It is expected to fluctuate weakly [54][55]. Tin - On the previous trading day, tin futures rose. The mining end is affected by the conflict in Congo - Kinshasa, but the supply tightness is alleviated. The demand shows certain resilience. The price has support below, but short - term fluctuations may intensify [56]. Nickel - On the previous trading day, nickel futures rose. The production quota of the world's largest nickel mine may be significantly reduced, the cost is expected to rise, the policy risk in Indonesia increases, the downstream demand is weak, and the first - grade nickel is in an oversupply pattern. Follow - up attention should be paid to relevant policies in Indonesia [57][58]. Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - On the previous trading day, soybean meal futures rose, and soybean oil futures fell slightly. The export demand expectation is optimistic, but the record - high yield of Brazilian soybeans brings competition. The soybean supply is relatively loose, the demand for soybean meal continues to grow moderately, and the demand for soybean oil improves slightly. For soybean meal, attention can be paid to long opportunities in the low - cost support range; for soybean oil, observation is recommended after the price leaves the low - cost range [59][60]. Palm Oil - The Malaysian palm oil futures fell. The supply is sufficient, the demand is weak, and the export volume decreased. The domestic inventory is at a medium - high level. It is recommended to pay attention to long opportunities after pullbacks [61][62]. Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - Canadian rapeseed futures fluctuated. The planting area of rapeseed in Canada may be affected by profit concerns, and the domestic import policy and inventory situation are certain. Temporary observation is recommended [63][64]. Cotton - On the previous trading day, domestic cotton futures fluctuated. The USDA report is bearish in the short term. Although the domestic harvest is good, the inventory build - up is less than expected, and the future supply is expected to be tight. The downstream consumption is resilient. It is expected that the medium - and long - term price will be strong, but there is pressure on the domestic market in the short term. Observation is recommended before the Spring Festival [65][67]. Sugar - On the previous trading day, domestic sugar futures fluctuated. The global production increase expectation is strong, and the domestic market is under the pressure of domestic new sugar and imported sugar. It is expected to be weak in the medium term [68][69][70]. Apples - On the previous trading day, domestic apple futures fluctuated. The current market is in a vacuum period, and the inventory is at a low level in recent years. The new - season apple production and quality decline. It is expected that the medium - and long - term price will be strong. Observation is recommended before the Spring Festival, and partial long positions can be taken after pullbacks [70][71]. Live Pigs - On the previous trading day, live pig futures rose. The market supply exceeds demand, the consumption boost during the Spring Festival is limited, and the post - holiday supply may still face pressure. Observation is recommended before the Spring Festival [72][73]. Eggs - On the previous trading day, egg futures rose. The supply in February is expected to remain at a relatively high level, the pre - holiday stocking is over. Observation is recommended before the Spring Festival, and short positions can be

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The USDA supply and demand report is bullish as it lowers both global and US cotton production and inventory, but short - term global cotton prices are constrained by a stronger US dollar and Trump's tariff risks [18] - Domestically, cotton production has increased, but inventory accumulation is lower than expected. The market anticipates a decline in planting area in the new season, leading to a tight long - term supply [18] - Currently, the domestic - foreign cotton price spread is high, and the domestic market is over - valued compared to the international market. Short - term cotton prices are expected to fluctuate weakly, while in the long - term, they are expected to strengthen due to strong demand and the expectation of reduced planting area [18] Summary of Key Points by Section Global Cotton Supply and Demand Situation - The USDA's January supply and demand report shows a global 2025/26 cotton production estimate of 119.43 million bales, down from the December estimate of 119.79 million bales [2] - The global 2025/26 cotton ending inventory estimate is 74.48 million bales, down from the December estimate of 75.97 million bales, making the supply - demand report bullish [2] US Cotton Supply and Demand Situation - The 2025/26 US cotton production estimate is 13.92 million bales, a month - on - month decrease of 350,000 bales from the December estimate [3] - The 2025/26 US cotton ending inventory estimate is 4.2 million bales, a month - on - month decrease of 300,000 bales (a 7% decline) from December, with an inventory - to - consumption ratio of 30.4% [3] Domestic Cotton Industry Chain Situation Domestic Cotton Planting Area - The 2025/26 national cotton production estimate is 7.73 million tons, unchanged from the previous month and an increase of 880,000 tons (a 12.84% increase) compared to the 2024/25 season [5] - The average seed cotton purchase price this year is around 6.2 - 6.3 yuan/kg, corresponding to a cotton cost of about 14,600 yuan/ton [9] Cotton Inventory Situation - As of the end of January, the commercial cotton inventory is 5.79 million tons, at a historical high for the same period, with a year - on - year increase of 10,000 tons, but the inventory accumulation rate is lower than expected [11] - As of the end of January, the industrial cotton inventory of textile enterprises is 1 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 20,000 tons, and the industrial inventory is at a neutral level. With low downstream profits, textile mills have little motivation to actively replenish inventory [13] Cotton Domestic - Foreign Price Spread - As of February 10, 2026, the domestic - foreign cotton price spread (the difference between the domestic spot B index and the landed cost of imported cotton under 1% tariff) is about 3,600 yuan/ton, with the domestic price significantly higher than the international price and at a ten - year high [14]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The macro - economic recovery momentum needs to be strengthened, and the monetary policy is expected to remain loose. There is still some pressure on treasury bond futures, and caution is advised [6]. - The domestic economy is stable, but the recovery momentum is weak, and corporate profit growth is at a low level. However, domestic asset valuations are low, and there is room for repair. The stock index fluctuation center is expected to gradually move up, and previous long positions can be held [9]. - The global trade - financial environment is complex. The trend of "de - globalization" and "de - dollarization" is beneficial to the allocation and hedging value of gold, but the recent sharp rise in precious metals has led to a significant increase in speculative sentiment. It is recommended to exit long positions and wait and see [11]. - The supply - demand pattern of steel products and iron ore is weak, and they may continue the weak shock pattern in the short - term. Investors can pay attention to the opportunity of buying on dips and manage positions carefully [14][16]. - The supply - demand pattern of coking coal and coke is complex. They may continue the shock pattern in the medium - term, and investors can pay attention to the opportunity of buying at low levels [19]. - The overall over - supply pressure of ferroalloys continues, but the cost support is gradually strengthening. After the price drops, attention can be paid to the long - position opportunities in the low - level range [21]. - The negotiation between the US and Iran is complex, and geopolitical risks still exist. The capital is still bullish on crude oil prices, and the rebound of crude oil is expected to continue [24]. - The tight supply of Singapore fuel oil has eased, but the rebound of crude oil at the cost end drives the fuel oil price to rebound, and there is still room for the fuel oil price to rise [27]. - As the Spring Festival approaches, the demand for polyolefins will decrease significantly, and cautious operation is recommended before the festival [29]. - Synthetic rubber may show a relatively strong shock trend, and attention should be paid to the resumption of logistics and infrastructure construction after the Lantern Festival and the inventory destocking rate of tire enterprises [31]. - Natural rubber may show a shock trend, and positions should be controlled before the festival [34]. - PVC may show a relatively strong shock trend, and the key to price and inventory lies in the demand recovery after the Spring Festival [36]. - Urea may show a shock - strong trend, and attention should be paid to Indian tenders, domestic policies, and the recovery rhythm of downstream demand after the festival [39]. - PX may be mainly in shock adjustment in the short - term, and cautious participation is recommended, paying attention to the fluctuation risk of overseas crude oil during the Spring Festival [42]. - PTA may be in shock operation in the short - term, and it is recommended to operate carefully, paying attention to oil price changes [43]. - Ethylene glycol may maintain a shock - bottoming pattern in the short - term, and it is recommended to operate carefully, paying attention to port inventory and supply changes [45]. - Short - fiber is still trading based on the cost - end logic before the festival, and it is recommended to wait and see carefully, paying attention to cost changes and downstream pre - holiday stocking [46]. - Bottle chips are expected to follow the cost - end operation, and cautious participation is recommended before the festival, paying attention to the implementation of maintenance devices [49]. - The fundamentals of soda ash are still loose, and it should be treated with caution [50]. - The fundamentals of glass are still loose, and it is expected to be in shock before the festival, paying attention to the risk of returning to the fundamentals [51]. - The seasonal characteristics of caustic soda are significant, and although the disk rose yesterday, the fundamentals of the middle and lower reaches have not improved significantly, so it should be treated with caution [54]. - Pulp is expected to have limited fluctuations before the festival due to factors such as inventory accumulation and weak terminal demand [57]. - The price of lithium carbonate has short - term support, but the short - term fluctuation may increase, and risk control is necessary [58]. - Copper prices may be weakly adjusted before the festival due to weakening market sentiment and fundamentals [60]. - Aluminum prices may be under pressure as speculative funds leave the market this month [62]. - Zinc prices will enter an adjustment period as market sentiment cools and zinc ingots accumulate [64]. - Lead prices may show a weak shock trend due to the weak supply - demand pattern [66]. - Tin prices have support below, but short - term fluctuations may intensify, and risk control is necessary [67]. - Nickel is still in an oversupply pattern, and attention should be paid to relevant Indonesian policies [69]. - For soybean meal, attention can be paid to long - position opportunities in the low - cost support range; for soybean oil, it is advisable to wait and see after the price leaves the low - cost range [71]. - For palm oil, attention can be paid to the opportunity of buying on dips [73]. - For rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil, it is recommended to wait and see temporarily [76]. - Cotton prices are expected to be strong in the medium - and long - term, but there is pressure on the domestic market in the short - term, and it is recommended to wait and see before the festival [79]. - Sugar prices are expected to be weak in the medium - term [83]. - Apple prices are expected to be strong in the medium - and long - term, and it is recommended to wait and see before the festival and go long in batches after the price pulls back [84]. - For live pigs, it is recommended to wait and see before the festival as the supply may still face pressure after the festival [87]. - For eggs, it is recommended to wait and see before the festival and go short at high prices after the festival [88]. - Corn and corn starch may follow the corn market, and patience is needed to wait for the release of supply pressure after the festival [91]. - The fundamentals of logs are under pressure, and attention should be paid to overseas quotes, holiday progress, and shipping dynamics [95]. 3. Summaries According to the Directory Treasury Bonds - On the previous trading day, the closing performance of treasury bond futures was divided. The central bank carried out 311.4 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 205.9 billion yuan. The central bank will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy. It is expected that treasury bond futures still have some pressure, and caution is advised [5][6]. Stock Index - On the previous trading day, stock index futures rose and fell differently. The market regulatory authorities approved a batch of important national standards. The domestic economy is stable, but the recovery momentum is weak. The stock index fluctuation center is expected to gradually move up, and previous long positions can be held [8][9]. Precious Metals - On the previous trading day, the gold and silver main contracts fell. The "de - globalization" and "de - dollarization" trends are beneficial to the value of gold, but the recent sharp rise has led to a significant increase in speculative sentiment. It is recommended to exit long positions and wait and see [11]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - On the previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures showed a weak shock. In the medium - term, the price is dominated by the industrial supply - demand logic. The demand for rebar is declining year - on - year, and the supply pressure still exists. The price may continue the weak shock pattern, and investors can pay attention to the opportunity of buying on dips [13][14]. Iron Ore - On the previous trading day, iron ore futures fluctuated and sorted out. The demand for iron ore is at a low level, and the port inventory is rising. The supply - demand pattern is weak, and it may continue the shock pattern in the short - term. Investors can pay attention to the opportunity of buying on dips [16]. Coking Coal and Coke - On the previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures continued to pull back. The supply of coking coal may decrease in the later period, and the demand for coke is weak. They may continue the shock pattern in the medium - term, and investors can pay attention to the opportunity of buying at low levels [18][19]. Ferroalloys - On the previous trading day, the manganese - silicon and silicon - iron main contracts fell. The supply of ferroalloys is still in a loose state, but the cost support is gradually strengthening. After the price drops, attention can be paid to the long - position opportunities in the low - level range [21]. Crude Oil - On the previous trading day, INE crude oil oscillated upward. The negotiation between the US and Iran is complex, and geopolitical risks still exist. The capital is still bullish on crude oil prices, and the rebound of crude oil is expected to continue. Investors can pay attention to the long - position opportunity of the main crude oil contract [22][24]. Fuel Oil - On the previous trading day, fuel oil oscillated upward. The tight supply of Singapore fuel oil has eased, but the rebound of crude oil at the cost end drives the fuel oil price to rebound, and there is still room for the fuel oil price to rise. Investors can pay attention to the long - position opportunity of the main fuel oil contract [26][27]. Polyolefins - On the previous trading day, the price of polyolefins declined. As the Spring Festival approaches, the demand will decrease significantly, and cautious operation is recommended before the festival [29]. Synthetic Rubber - On the previous trading day, the synthetic rubber main contract rose. It may show a relatively strong shock trend, and attention should be paid to the resumption of logistics and infrastructure construction after the Lantern Festival and the inventory destocking rate of tire enterprises [31]. Natural Rubber - On the previous trading day, the natural rubber main contract rose. It may show a shock trend, and positions should be controlled before the festival [34]. PVC - On the previous trading day, the PVC main contract fell. It may show a relatively strong shock trend, and the key to price and inventory lies in the demand recovery after the Spring Festival [36]. Urea - On the previous trading day, the urea main contract fell. It may show a shock - strong trend, and attention should be paid to Indian tenders, domestic policies, and the recovery rhythm of downstream demand after the festival [39]. PX - On the previous trading day, the PX main contract rose. It may be mainly in shock adjustment in the short - term, and cautious participation is recommended, paying attention to the fluctuation risk of overseas crude oil during the Spring Festival [40][42]. PTA - On the previous trading day, the PTA main contract rose. It may be in shock operation in the short - term, and it is recommended to operate carefully, paying attention to oil price changes [43]. Ethylene Glycol - On the previous trading day, the ethylene glycol main contract fell. It may maintain a shock - bottoming pattern in the short - term, and it is recommended to operate carefully, paying attention to port inventory and supply changes [44][45]. Short - Fiber - On the previous trading day, the short - fiber main contract rose. It is still trading based on the cost - end logic before the festival, and it is recommended to wait and see carefully, paying attention to cost changes and downstream pre - holiday stocking [46]. Bottle Chips - On the previous trading day, the bottle - chip main contract rose. It is expected to follow the cost - end operation, and cautious participation is recommended before the festival, paying attention to the implementation of maintenance devices [47][49]. Soda Ash - On the previous trading day, the soda - ash main contract fell. The fundamentals are still loose, and it should be treated with caution [50]. Glass - On the previous trading day, the glass main contract fell. The fundamentals are still loose, and it is expected to be in shock before the festival, paying attention to the risk of returning to the fundamentals [51]. Caustic Soda - On the previous trading day, the caustic - soda main contract rose. The seasonal characteristics are significant, and although the disk rose yesterday, the fundamentals of the middle and lower reaches have not improved significantly, so it should be treated with caution [53][54]. Pulp - On the previous trading day, the pulp main contract fell. The inventory continues to accumulate, the terminal demand is weak, and it is expected to have limited fluctuations before the festival [55][57]. Lithium Carbonate - On the previous trading day, the lithium - carbonate main contract rose. The price has short - term support, but the short - term fluctuation may increase, and risk control is necessary [58]. Copper - On the previous trading day, the Shanghai copper main contract fell. The market sentiment has declined, and the fundamentals have weakened. The copper price may be weakly adjusted before the festival [59][60]. Aluminum - On the previous trading day, the Shanghai aluminum main contract was flat, and the alumina main contract fell. The alumina cost support is not strong, and the aluminum price may be under pressure this month [62]. Zinc - On the previous trading day, the Shanghai zinc main contract rose. The zinc market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand, and the zinc price will enter an adjustment period [64]. Lead - On the previous trading day, the Shanghai lead main contract rose. The lead market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand, and the lead price may show a weak shock trend [65][66]. Tin - On the previous trading day, the Shanghai tin main contract rose. The supply - demand pattern is tight, and the tin price has support below, but short - term fluctuations may intensify, and risk control is necessary [67]. Nickel - On the previous trading day, the Shanghai nickel main contract rose. Nickel is still in an oversupply pattern, and attention should be paid to relevant Indonesian policies [68][69]. Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - On the previous trading day, the soybean - meal and soybean - oil main contracts fell. The supply of soybeans is relatively loose, the demand for soybean meal continues to grow moderately, and the demand for soybean oil has improved slightly. For soybean meal, attention can be paid to long - position opportunities in the low - cost support range; for soybean oil, it is advisable to wait and see after the price leaves the low - cost range [70][71]. Palm Oil - The Malaysian palm - oil market fell. The inventory in Malaysia is still at a high level, and the export has declined. The domestic palm - oil inventory is at a medium - to - high level. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of buying on dips [72][73]. Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - The Canadian rapeseed futures rose. The export volume of Canadian rapeseed is expected to decline, while the export volume of rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal is expected to increase. The domestic rapeseed - meal and rapeseed - oil inventories are in different states. It is recommended to wait and see temporarily [74][76]. Cotton - On the previous trading day, domestic Zhengzhou cotton oscillated. The USDA February supply - demand report is bearish, but the domestic supply is expected to be tight in the future, and the demand has resilience. The cotton price is expected to be strong in the medium - and long - term, but there is pressure on the domestic market in the short - term. It is recommended to wait and see before the festival [77][79]. Sugar - On the previous trading day, Zhengzhou sugar rebounded slightly. The Indian sugar production is expected to increase strongly, and the domestic market is facing the dual supply pressure of domestic new sugar and imported sugar. It is expected to be weak in the medium - term [81][82]. Apple - On the previous trading day, domestic apple futures oscillated. The current inventory is at a low level in recent years, and the new - season apple production and quality have declined. It is expected to be strong in the medium - and long - term. It is recommended to wait and see before the festival and go long in batches after the price pulls back [84]. Live Pigs - On the previous trading day, the live - pig main contract fell. The overall supply exceeds demand, and the consumption boost is limited before the Spring Festival. The supply may still face pressure after the festival. It is recommended to wait and see before the festival [86][87]. Eggs - On the previous trading day, the egg main contract rose. The egg supply in February is expected to remain at a relatively high level. It is recommended to wait and see before the festival and go short at high prices after the festival [88]. Corn and Corn Starch - On the previous trading day, the corn and corn - starch main contracts rose. The supply pressure of corn is still large, but the demand is strong. Corn starch may follow the corn market, and patience is needed to wait for the release of supply pressure after the festival [89][91]. Logs - On the previous trading day, the log main contract fell. The shipping volume has returned to normal, but the downstream demand is weakening. The fundamentals are under pressure, and attention should be paid to overseas quotes, holiday progress, and shipping dynamics [92][95].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - The macro - economic recovery momentum needs strengthening, and the monetary policy is expected to remain loose. Treasury bond futures are expected to face some pressure, and caution is advised [6][7]. - The domestic economy is stable, but the recovery momentum is weak. The valuation of domestic assets is low, and the market sentiment has warmed up. The volatility center of stock index futures is expected to gradually move up, and previous long positions can be held [9][10]. - The global trade - financial environment is complex. Gold is favored for its allocation and hedging value, but the recent sharp rise has led to high speculative sentiment. The market volatility of precious metals is expected to increase significantly, and long positions should be liquidated for observation [11][12]. - The supply - demand pattern of steel products is weak. The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coils may continue to oscillate weakly. Investors can look for opportunities to go long on pullbacks and manage positions carefully [13]. - The supply - demand pattern of iron ore is weak, and the futures may continue to oscillate in the short term. Investors can look for opportunities to go long on pullbacks and manage positions carefully [15]. - The coke and coking coal futures may continue to oscillate in the medium term. Investors can look for low - level buying opportunities and manage positions carefully [17]. - The ferro - alloy market has an overall surplus, but the cost has a certain bottom - support. After a decline, investors can consider long positions in the low - level range [19]. - The negotiation between the US and Iran is complex, and geopolitical risks remain. The capital is still bullish on crude oil, and the rebound of crude oil is expected to continue. Investors can focus on long - position opportunities in the main crude oil contract [20][21][22]. - The supply of fuel oil in Singapore is tightening, and the cost - end crude oil is rebounding, so the fuel oil price has room to rise. Investors can focus on long - position opportunities in the main fuel oil contract [23][24]. - As the Spring Festival approaches, the demand for polyolefins will shrink significantly, and pre - festival cautious operation is recommended [25][26]. - The synthetic rubber market may oscillate strongly. Attention should be paid to the resumption progress of logistics and infrastructure after the Lantern Festival and the inventory reduction rate of tire enterprises [27][28][29]. - The natural rubber market is in an oscillating trend. Due to the approaching Spring Festival, positions should be controlled [30][31]. - The PVC market may oscillate strongly. The key to price trends and inventory reduction lies in the post - Spring Festival demand recovery [32][33][34]. - The urea market may oscillate strongly, and attention should be paid to Indian tenders, domestic policies, and post - festival demand recovery [35]. - The PX market may oscillate and adjust in the short term. Cautious participation is recommended, and attention should be paid to macro - policies and fundamentals [36][37]. - The PTA market may oscillate in the short term. It is expected to accumulate a small amount of inventory in January and February. Cautious operation is recommended, and attention should be paid to oil price changes [38]. - The ethylene glycol market may maintain an oscillating bottom - building pattern in the short term. Cautious operation is recommended, and attention should be paid to port inventory and supply changes [39][40]. - The short - fiber market mainly trades based on the cost - end logic before the Spring Festival. Cautious observation is recommended, and attention should be paid to cost changes and downstream pre - festival stocking [41]. - The bottle - chip market is expected to follow the cost - end trend. Cautious participation is recommended before the Spring Festival, and attention should be paid to the implementation of maintenance devices [42][43]. - The soda ash market is in a slack season, and cautious treatment is still required [44]. - The glass market is expected to oscillate before the Spring Festival. Attention should be paid to the risk of returning to the fundamentals [45][46][47]. - The caustic soda market has significant seasonal characteristics. Although the cost is expected to rise, the fundamentals of the middle and lower reaches have not improved significantly, so cautious treatment is required [49][50]. - The pulp market is expected to have limited fluctuations before the Spring Festival due to weak support [51]. - The lithium carbonate market has strong support at the bottom, but short - term fluctuations may increase, and risk control should be noted [52][53]. - The copper price may be weakly adjusted before the Spring Festival due to weakening market sentiment and fundamentals [54][55]. - The aluminum price may be under pressure as speculative funds leave the market [56][57][58]. - The zinc price will enter an adjustment period as market sentiment cools and zinc ingot inventory accumulates [59][60]. - The lead market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, and the price may oscillate weakly [61][62]. - The tin price has support at the bottom, but short - term fluctuations may intensify due to the uncertainty of US policies, and risk control should be noted [63][64]. - The nickel market is in an oversupply pattern, and attention should be paid to relevant Indonesian policies [65]. - For soybean meal, long - position opportunities in the low - cost support range can be considered; for soybean oil, observation is advisable after the price leaves the low - cost range [66][67]. - For palm oil, long - position opportunities after pullbacks can be considered [68][69]. - For rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil, temporary observation is recommended [70][71][72]. - The cotton price is expected to be strong in the medium and long term, but there is pressure on the domestic market in the short term. Pre - festival observation is recommended [73][74][75]. - The sugar market is expected to be weak in the medium term [76][77][78]. - The apple price is expected to be strong in the medium and long term. Pre - festival observation is recommended, and long - position operations can be considered in batches after pullbacks [79][80]. - For live pigs, pre - festival observation is recommended due to the large supply pressure after the Spring Festival [80][81]. - For eggs, pre - festival temporary observation is recommended due to the high supply and the end of pre - festival stocking [82][83]. - The corn and corn starch market: Corn is expected to face supply pressure after the Spring Festival, and corn starch may follow the corn market. Cautious observation is recommended [84][85][86]. - The log market has weak future demand expectations, and attention should be paid to foreign quotes, holiday progress, and shipping dynamics [87][88][89]. Summary by Directory Pulp - The previous trading day, the main 2605 contract closed at 5,200 yuan/ton, down 0.99%. The port inventory continued to accumulate, the terminal demand stagnated, and the market lacked trading basis. The price is expected to have limited fluctuations before the Spring Festival [51]. Carbonate Lithium - The previous trading day, the main carbonate lithium contract rose 3.55% to 137,000 yuan/ton. The supply is in a tight balance, the consumption end is improving, and the social inventory is gradually decreasing. The price has strong support at the bottom, but short - term fluctuations may increase [52][53]. Copper - The previous trading day, the Shanghai copper main contract closed at 102,450 yuan/ton, up 0.93%. Due to weakening market sentiment and fundamentals, the copper price may be weakly adjusted before the Spring Festival [54][55]. Aluminum - The previous trading day, the Shanghai aluminum main contract closed at 23,625 yuan/ton, up 0.17%; the alumina main contract closed at 2,862 yuan/ton, down 0.46%. The alumina is bearish, and the aluminum price may be under pressure as speculative funds leave the market [56][57][58]. Zinc - The previous trading day, the Shanghai zinc main contract closed at 24,490 yuan/ton, down 0.39%. The zinc market has a pattern of weak supply and demand, and the price will enter an adjustment period [59][60]. Lead - The previous trading day, the Shanghai lead main contract closed at 16,665 yuan/ton, up 0.6%. The lead market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, and the price may oscillate weakly [61][62]. Tin - The previous trading day, the Shanghai tin main contract rose 4.18% to 385,140 yuan/ton. The supply - demand is tight, the price has support at the bottom, but short - term fluctuations may intensify due to the uncertainty of US policies [63][64]. Nickel - The previous trading day, the Shanghai nickel main contract rose 0.91% to 134,820 yuan/ton. The nickel market is in an oversupply pattern, and attention should be paid to relevant Indonesian policies [65]. Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - The previous trading day, the soybean meal main contract fell 0.33% to 2,729 yuan/ton, and the soybean oil main contract rose 0.07% to 8,114 yuan/ton. For soybean meal, long - position opportunities in the low - cost support range can be considered; for soybean oil, observation is advisable after the price leaves the low - cost range [66][67]. Palm Oil - The Malaysian palm oil rose. The market expects the inventory to decline in January. For palm oil, long - position opportunities after pullbacks can be considered [68][69]. Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - The Canadian rapeseed rose. For rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil, temporary observation is recommended [70][71][72]. Cotton - The previous trading day, the domestic Zhengzhou cotton oscillated. The cotton price is expected to be strong in the medium and long term, but there is pressure on the domestic market in the short term. Pre - festival observation is recommended [73][74][75]. Sugar - The previous trading day, the Zhengzhou sugar rebounded slightly. The sugar market is expected to be weak in the medium term [76][77][78]. Apple - The previous trading day, the domestic apple futures oscillated. The apple price is expected to be strong in the medium and long term. Pre - festival observation is recommended, and long - position operations can be considered in batches after pullbacks [79][80]. Live Pigs - The previous trading day, the main live - pig contract fell 0.69% to 11,565 yuan/ton. Pre - festival observation is recommended due to the large supply pressure after the Spring Festival [80][81]. Eggs - The previous trading day, the main egg contract rose 0.03% to 2,909 yuan/500 kg. Pre - festival temporary observation is recommended due to the high supply and the end of pre - festival stocking [82][83]. Corn and Starch - The previous trading day, the corn main contract fell 0.18% to 2,265 yuan/ton; the corn starch main contract rose 0.28% to 2,538 yuan/ton. Corn is expected to face supply pressure after the Spring Festival, and corn starch may follow the corn market. Cautious observation is recommended [84][85][86]. Logs - The previous trading day, the main 2603 contract closed at 775.0 yuan/ton, down 1.90%. The log market has weak future demand expectations, and attention should be paid to foreign quotes, holiday progress, and shipping dynamics [87][88][89].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Treasury Bonds**: Current macro - data is stable, but the recovery momentum of the macro - economy needs strengthening. It is expected that the monetary policy will remain loose. Treasury bond yields are at a relatively low level. The Chinese economy shows a steady recovery, core inflation continues to rise, and there is room for domestic demand policies. The market risk preference has significantly increased. Treasury bond futures are expected to face some pressure, and caution is advised [5]. - **Stock Index Futures**: The domestic economy is stable, but the recovery momentum of the macro - economy is weak, and corporate profit growth is at a low level. However, domestic asset valuations are at a low level, and there is room for valuation repair. The Chinese economy has sufficient resilience. Recently, market sentiment has warmed up significantly, and incremental funds have continued to enter the market. It is expected that the volatility center of the stock index will gradually move up, and previous long positions can be held. With the Spring Festival approaching, risk control should be emphasized, and positions can be appropriately reduced [8]. - **Precious Metals**: The current global trade and financial environment is complex. The trends of "anti - globalization" and "de - dollarization" are beneficial to the allocation and hedging value of gold. Central bank gold - buying behavior also supports the gold price. However, precious metals have risen significantly recently, and speculative sentiment has increased significantly. It is expected that market volatility will increase significantly, and long positions can be liquidated for observation [10]. - **Steel Products (Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil)**: In the medium term, the price of finished steel products is dominated by industrial supply - demand logic. On the demand side, the downward trend of the real estate industry has not reversed, and rebar demand is still declining year - on - year. In the medium term, the market has entered the off - season of demand, and the progress of winter storage needs to be monitored. On the supply side, the over - capacity situation remains unchanged, rebar weekly output has increased, and supply pressure has increased. Currently, rebar inventory is higher than the same period last year, and the inventory accumulation process around the Spring Festival has begun. Overall, rebar prices may continue to fluctuate weakly. The fundamentals of hot - rolled coils are not significantly different from those of rebar, and their trends may be consistent. Technically, steel futures may continue the weak - oscillation pattern in the short term. Investors can look for opportunities to go long on pullbacks and pay attention to position management [13]. - **Iron Ore**: From an industrial perspective, the daily output of molten iron in the country remains below 2.3 million tons, and iron ore demand is at a low level. On the supply side, in 2025, iron ore imports increased by 1.8% year - on - year, and domestic raw ore production was lower than the same period in 2024. Iron ore port inventory has continued to rise, and the current inventory is at the highest level in the same period in the past five years. Overall, the supply - demand pattern of the iron ore market is weak. Technically, iron ore futures may continue the oscillation pattern in the short term. Investors can look for opportunities to go long on pullbacks and pay attention to position management [15]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: For coking coal, current major coal - producing areas maintain normal production rhythms, and domestic coking coal production is stable. However, considering the approaching Spring Festival, future supply will decline, and coal mine shipment pressure is small. On the demand side, downstream coking enterprises purchase on demand, and intermediate - link purchasing attitudes have become more cautious. For coke, the first - round increase in the spot purchase price has been officially implemented. Coke supply remains stable; the daily output of molten iron in the country remains below 2.3 million tons, and coke demand is weak, putting pressure on coke prices. Technically, coking coal and coke futures may continue the oscillation pattern in the medium term. Investors can look for opportunities to buy at low levels and pay attention to position management [17]. - **Ferroalloys**: Since 2026, ferroalloy production has remained at a low level, demand is weak, and the overall over - supply pressure continues. Currently, the downward space for costs at a low level is limited, and the support at the low - level range is gradually strengthening, and manganese ore inventory is at a low level. In the short term, supply may continue to shrink. Under the conditions of low and rigid costs, investors can consider long positions in the low - level range after a pullback [20]. - **Crude Oil**: The negotiation between the US and Iran has encountered difficulties, and geopolitical contradictions are beneficial to crude oil prices. CFTC data shows that funds are still bullish on crude oil prices. The crude oil rebound is expected to continue [23]. - **Fuel Oil**: The supply of fuel oil in Singapore is tightening, which is beneficial to fuel oil prices. The rebound of crude oil at the cost end drives the rebound of fuel oil prices. There is still room for fuel oil to rise [26]. - **Polyolefins**: In the short term, as the Spring Festival approaches, downstream factories are gradually entering the holiday stage, and market demand will be significantly reduced. On the supply side, some suppliers who have not yet taken holidays still maintain active shipment operations [28]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: It is expected to show a relatively strong oscillation [31]. - **Natural Rubber**: It is expected to show an oscillation trend. Due to macro black - swan events this week, gold and silver have plummeted, and the sentiment has spread to the rubber sector, causing prices to follow the overall correction of commodities. It is mainly necessary to control positions before the festival [32]. - **PVC**: The key to price trends and inventory reduction speed lies in the recovery of demand after the Spring Festival. If the downstream resumes work quickly and the demand for infrastructure and other projects can be effectively activated, the inventory pressure is expected to be gradually relieved. On the supply side, the PVC industry operating rate remains at a high level. On the demand side, affected by the Spring Festival holiday, the operating rates of downstream pipe and profile enterprises have significantly declined, and the willingness to stock up has weakened. At the cost - profit end, external - purchased calcium - carbide - method enterprises are still in deep losses, and the profits of chlor - alkali integration are also not good, and the cost end supports the price. It is expected to show a relatively strong oscillation [34]. - **Urea**: It is expected to show an oscillation - and - upward trend. It is necessary to pay attention to the dynamics of Indian tenders, domestic policy news, and the recovery rhythm of downstream demand after the festival [36]. - **PX**: In the short term, the PXN spread and short - process profit are slightly compressed, the PX operating rate has slightly increased, and the cost - end crude oil is adjusted. In the short term, PX may mainly oscillate and adjust. It is necessary to participate cautiously, be vigilant against the risk of external - market crude oil fluctuations, and pay attention to macro - policies and fundamental changes [37]. - **PTA**: In the short term, the PTA processing fee has risen to the average level of previous years, and the room for further upward movement may be limited. PTA inventory remains at a low level. Recently, there have been few changes on the supply side, the demand side has entered the holiday mode for the Spring Festival, and the cost - end support is limited. In the short term, PTA may oscillate. It is expected to slightly accumulate inventory from January to February. Considering the uncertainty of crude oil changes, it is mainly necessary to operate cautiously, pay attention to risk control, and pay attention to oil - price changes [39]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The content is the same as that of PTA, with the same analysis and suggestions [40]. - **Short - Fiber**: As the Spring Festival approaches, short - fiber supply shrinks, terminal - factory stocking decreases, and loom load drops to a low point. However, the low inventory of short - fiber may provide bottom support. In the short term, short - fiber still trades based on the cost - end logic. The cost support weakens, and it may follow the raw - material price. It is mainly necessary to observe cautiously, pay attention to risk control, and pay attention to cost changes and downstream pre - festival stocking [42]. - **Bottle - Chip**: Recently, the bottle - chip load has slightly decreased, and there will be concentrated production cuts around the Spring Festival. Supply is expected to shrink. The export growth rate has increased, but its main logic still lies in the cost end. It is expected that bottle - chips will mainly follow the cost - end operation in the future. It is necessary to participate cautiously before the festival, pay attention to risk control, and pay attention to the implementation of maintenance devices [43]. - **Soda Ash**: The fundamentals continue to be loose. The output has decreased slightly, and inventory has slightly accumulated. Downstream glass manufacturers still mainly purchase on demand at low prices. The device operation is stable, and supply remains at a high level. The fundamentals show off - season characteristics, are occasionally affected by the intraday sentiment of the energy sector, lack substantial support, and should still be treated with caution [44]. - **Glass**: The fundamentals remain in a loose pattern. The number of production lines in operation has decreased, factory - and trader - inventories have increased. The market is mainly in a loose tone. The inventory of manufacturers is concentrated and transferred to trader inventory, and it is expected that there will still be pressure for the release of market goods after the festival. In the short term, it is driven by the energy sector, showing a slight oscillation - and - upward trend, but the sustainability is general. It is necessary to pay attention to the risk of returning to the fundamentals. It is expected to oscillate before the festival [46]. - **Caustic Soda**: Supply remains at a high level. Inventory has decreased slightly due to the shipment of delivery warrants, but the absolute value is still at a high level in the same period of history. Before the festival, downstream purchases on demand, and the willingness to accept high - price caustic soda is small. The 02 contract is about to end trading, and the other contracts return to the fundamental logic. It has significant seasonal characteristics - high output, low demand, and high inventory. Recently, the energy sector has oscillated a lot, the cost expectation has increased, and the disk game has intensified. However, considering that the fundamentals of the middle and lower reaches have not significantly improved, it should be treated with caution [48]. - **Pulp**: Inventory continues to accumulate. Domestic supply has also slightly increased. Downstream performance is divided. Before the Spring Festival, the consumption of household paper is slightly better, while other cultural and packaging paper categories are sluggish. The overall market operation is inactive, and the enthusiasm of industry players to enter the market is general. The continuous accumulation of port inventory intensifies the expectation of supply relaxation; the terminal demand is temporarily stagnant, and the market lacks a trading basis; the demand for capital repatriation before the festival causes some holders to sell at a discount. The overall support is weak, and it is expected that the pre - festival disk will have limited fluctuations [50]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price has fallen back, and the fundamentals show that the resumption time of mines in Jiangxi, China, is still uncertain, and the mine end may be in a tight - balance state. From the perspective of lithium - salt supply, the weekly output of lithium carbonate continues to decline. On the consumption side, as the holiday approaches, downstream stocking is almost over. The energy - storage sector performs prominently, the production schedules of leading energy - storage battery enterprises remain high, and the demand for power batteries has also improved. The social inventory of lithium carbonate is gradually being reduced, and the current inventory has left the absolute high level. The short - term supply - demand mismatch provides short - term support for the price. Coupled with the frequent external geopolitical conflicts, the importance of strategic minerals is highlighted, and the market is constantly worried about the external stable supply and liquidity of lithium resources. The support for lithium carbonate is still strong, but the short - term volatility may increase, and risk control should be noted [52]. - **Copper**: Macroscopically, the nomination of the Fed chairman has led to the strengthening of the US dollar and the re - evaluation of global capital; the risk preference in the capital market has cooled, weakening the enthusiasm for commodity allocation; the US ADP data is lower than expected, and the number of initial jobless claims in the week is higher than expected and the previous value. Attention should be paid to the non - farm data. Fundamentally, as the Spring Festival approaches, terminal and processing enterprises have mostly completed pre - festival stocking, and the spot - market trading has become dull. The smelting end has few maintenance plans, and with the supplement of scrap for production, the output of electrolytic copper remains at a high level. The domestic social inventory of electrolytic copper is in the seasonal inventory - accumulation stage, and the global visible inventory of electrolytic copper continues to rise, but the actual available quantity is relatively limited. Market sentiment has declined, and coupled with the weakening of fundamentals, copper prices may be weakly adjusted before the festival [53]. - **Aluminum**: The cost support of alumina is not strong, the operating capacity has decreased month - on - month, but the supply - demand surplus pattern has not changed. The output of domestic electrolytic aluminum has changed little, and production enterprises are gradually shutting down for the Spring Festival. The inventory - accumulation amplitude of aluminum ingots and aluminum rods has increased. Although the global visible inventory of electrolytic aluminum has increased, the absolute value is still low. Alumina is still regarded as bearish. If the output decline is significant in the near future, the price may be temporarily strong. This month, the fundamentals of electrolytic aluminum are bearish, so as speculative funds leave the market, aluminum prices may be under pressure [56]. - **Zinc**: The zinc market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand. The supply (domestic zinc + imported zinc) has tightened month - on - month, and the demand - side operating rate will also reach the annual low. The traditional seasonal inventory - accumulation period is late, indicating that there is a certain resilience on the demand side. As market sentiment cools and zinc - ingot inventory accumulates, zinc prices will enter an adjustment period [58]. - **Lead**: Although the supply side is structurally tightened, most primary - lead enterprises and some secondary - lead enterprises will maintain production during the Spring Festival, and it is expected that the supply will be loose after the festival. The demand side shows a dull performance. Even if the lead price drops, the spot - market trading remains weak. The lead market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand, and the social inventory of primary lead steadily accumulates. Secondary lead still has cost support, but under the influence of the supply - demand structural contradiction, the support may gradually weaken [60]. - **Tin**: The military conflict in the DRC continues, and there are still concerns about the stable production of the mine end. However, the recent repair of the weak US dollar has led to a decline in asset - equity prices. Fundamentally, the explosive approval in Wa State has been completed, and it is expected that the subsequent output will increase. Currently, the domestic processing fee has recovered, and the refined - tin output has stabilized. In terms of imports, the refined - tin imports from Indonesia have resumed, and the tight supply pattern has been alleviated. On the demand side, the tin downstream consumption market presents a complex picture of "pressure in traditional fields and support from emerging fields". Although the overall demand has not shown a strong rebound, it still shows a certain resilience under the structural support of artificial intelligence and new - energy fields. Under the tight supply - demand situation, the visible inventory of refined tin is further reduced, and there is support for the tin price. However, the uncertainty of US policies is relatively large, which affects trading sentiment, and the short - term volatility may increase. Risk control should be noted [62]. - **Nickel**: Indonesia's nickel - ore quota plan for 2026 has been adjusted down to 2.6 billion tons, still lower than last year's quota. The nickel production - cost center is expected to rise, and the policy risk in Indonesia has increased. Fundamentally, the nickel - ore price has stabilized. Indonesia is cracking down on illegal mines, and coupled with the rainy season in the Philippines, subsequent nickel - ore production and mining activities may be affected, and there is support for the ore price. In addition, the pressure from stainless steel is transmitted upwards, the losses of downstream nickel - iron plants have increased, and some high - cost nickel - iron plants in Indonesia have shut down for maintenance. Stainless steel has entered the traditional consumption off - season, and is still restricted by the weak terminal real - estate consumption. Coupled with the still - sluggish nickel - iron trading, steel mills have a strong psychology of pressing prices, and the real - world consumption is still hard to be optimistic about. There is relatively large upward pressure. The spot trading of refined nickel has weakened, and the domestic inventory is generally stable but still at a relatively high level. Overall, primary nickel is still in an over - supply pattern. Attention should be paid to relevant Indonesian policies in the future [63]. - **Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal**: The Malaysian palm oil has recorded a weekly decline for the first time in five weeks, affected by the weak prices of edible oils in the competing Chicago and Dalian markets. The market expects that the palm - oil inventory in Malaysia at the end of January will decline. Domestically, China's palm - oil imports in December decreased. Palm - oil inventory is in the middle level of the same period in the past seven years. The catering industry shows certain growth. It may be possible to consider long positions after a pullback [65]. - **Palm Oil**: Canadian rapeseed has stopped rising for three days. Canada's rapeseed inventory has increased year - on - year. The US has issued relevant guidance on clean - fuel production tax credits. China has agreed to reduce the comprehensive tariff on Canadian rapeseed. China's rapeseed, rapeseed - oil, and rapeseed - meal imports have shown certain changes. China's rapeseed - meal and rapeseed - oil inventories are in a relatively high or middle level of the same period in the past seven years. It is recommended to wait and see for the time being [67]. - **Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil**: The price of soybean meal has risen slightly, and the price of soybean oil has fallen. The overnight US soybean has risen slightly. The soybean - crushing volume of major oil mills has increased. The inventory of soybean meal has increased slightly