2025 年 8 月 7 日星期四 重庆市江北区金沙门路 32 号 23 层； 023-67070250 上海市浦东新区世纪大道 210 号 10 楼 1001； 021-50591197 地址： 电话： 1 市场有风险 投资需谨慎 | 日 水 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 国债: | 4 | | | 股指: | | 4 | | 贵金属: | | ת > | | 螺纹、热卷: | | 6 | | 铁矿石: | | 6 | | 焦煤 焦炭 : . | | 7 | | 铁合金: | | 7 | | 原油: | | 8 | | 燃料油: | | C | | 合成橡胶: | | C | | 天然橡胶: | .. | | | PVC: | .. | | | 尿素: | 11 | | | 对二甲苯 PX: | .. 11 | | | PTA: 11 | | | | 乙二醇: 12 | | | | 短纤: . | | | | 瓶片: | .. | | | 纯碱: | .. | | | 玻璃: | .. | | | 烧碱: | .. | | | 纸浆: | .. | | | 碳酸锂: | .. | ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content found. Core Views of the Report - For Treasury bonds, the macro - economic recovery momentum needs strengthening, and the yield is at a relatively low level. It is expected that there will be no trend - based market, so a cautious approach is recommended [6][7]. - Regarding stock indices, although the domestic economic recovery momentum is weak, the low - level valuation of domestic assets and China's economic resilience make the long - term performance of Chinese equity assets promising. Consider going long on stock index futures [10][11]. - In the case of precious metals, the complex global trade and financial environment, along with the "de - globalization" and "de - dollarization" trends, support the long - term bullish trend of precious metals. Consider going long on gold futures [12][13]. - For steel products such as rebar, hot - rolled coils, and iron ore, the policy currently dominates the market, and the prices follow the trend of coking coal. Investors can look for opportunities to buy on pullbacks and hold existing long positions while managing their positions [14][16]. - For coking coal and coke, after the price fluctuations, the market is returning to the industrial supply - demand logic. Affected by policies, the prices may continue to be strong. Investors can look for buying opportunities on pullbacks [17]. - For ferroalloys, the short - term supply may exceed demand, but there may be opportunities to go long at low levels when the cost provides support [20]. - Regarding crude oil, the market is complex with high uncertainty due to OPEC+ production increases, poor US non - farm data, and geopolitical risks. It is recommended to wait and see for the main crude oil contract [21][23]. - For fuel oil, the Asian market is well - supplied, and the new US tariff rate is unfavorable to the shipping market. The strategy is to narrow the spread between high - and low - sulfur fuel oils [24][25]. - For synthetic rubber, wait for the market to stabilize before participating in the rebound [26][27]. - For natural rubber, although the macro - market sentiment has cooled, there are still opportunities to go long on pullbacks due to supply disruptions and cost support [28][29]. - For PVC, the supply exceeds demand, but the price may continue to fluctuate at the bottom [30][31]. - For urea, the short - term market may fluctuate, but a bullish view is held for the medium - term [32]. - For PX, the short - term supply - demand balance is tight, and the cost support from crude oil is weakening. Consider range - bound trading [33]. - For PTA, the short - term supply changes little, demand may weaken, and the cost support from crude oil is weakening. There may be a callback risk, and range - bound trading is recommended [34][35]. - For ethylene glycol, the supply pressure increases, but the low - level inventory provides support. Consider range - bound trading and pay attention to port inventory and imports [36]. - For short - fiber, the short - term supply is high, demand is weak, and the price may fluctuate with the cost [37][38]. - For bottle - grade chips, the price may fluctuate with the cost due to raw material price fluctuations and device maintenance [39]. - For soda ash, the supply is at a high level, and the demand is average. The market is expected to adjust steadily in the short - term [40][41]. - For glass, the production is stable, the inventory is decreasing, and the demand is weak. The price may be supported by cost in the short - term [42][43]. - For caustic soda, the supply is increasing after the resumption of production, and the price is expected to be stable [44][45]. - For pulp, the supply tends to expand, the demand is weak, and the price is expected to fluctuate [46][47]. - For lithium carbonate, the supply is high, the demand is improving but the trading is inactive. It is recommended to be cautious due to the uncertainty in the supply [49]. - For copper, the copper concentrate is in short supply, and the support factors for copper prices are weakening. It is recommended to wait and see [51][52]. - For tin, the supply is tight, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to fluctuate [53]. - For nickel, the supply is in excess, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to fluctuate [54]. - For soybean oil and soybean meal, the supply of soybeans is expected to be loose, and there are opportunities to go long on soybean meal at the support level and exit long positions on soybean oil at high levels [55][57]. - For palm oil, the inventory is increasing, but there may be opportunities to go long [58][59]. - For rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil, the supply is expected to increase, and there are opportunities to go long [59][60]. - For cotton, the global supply - demand is expected to be loose, and it is recommended to short on rebounds [61][63]. - For sugar, the production in Brazil is increasing, and it is recommended to wait and see [64][65]. - For apples, the production is expected to increase slightly, and it is recommended to short on rebounds [67][68]. - For live pigs, the supply is increasing, and the demand is weak in the off - season. It is recommended to wait and see [68][69]. - For eggs, the supply is increasing, and it is recommended to hold a 9 - 10 reverse spread [70][71]. - For corn and corn starch, the short - term supply - demand is balanced, and there are opportunities for virtual call options on old - crop contracts. Corn starch follows the corn market [73][74]. - For logs, the supply is tight, the demand is increasing, and the short - term bullish sentiment is strong [76][77]. Grouped by Product Categories Treasury Bonds - The previous trading day, most Treasury bond futures closed higher, with the 30 - year, 10 - year, and 5 - year contracts rising, and the 2 - year contract falling. The central bank conducted 160.7 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net withdrawal of 288.5 billion yuan [5]. - The macro - economic recovery momentum needs strengthening, and the Treasury bond yield is at a low level. It is expected that there will be no trend - based market [6]. Stock Indices - The previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed performance. The seven - department joint guidance on financial support for new industrialization was issued [8][9]. - The domestic economic recovery momentum is weak, but the low - level valuation of domestic assets and China's economic resilience make the long - term performance of Chinese equity assets promising. Consider going long on stock index futures [10]. Precious Metals - The previous trading day, gold and silver futures closed higher. The US trade deficit in June was 60.2 billion US dollars [12]. - The complex global trade and financial environment, along with the "de - globalization" and "de - dollarization" trends, support the long - term bullish trend of precious metals. Consider going long on gold futures [12]. Steel Products - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils**: The previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures rose slightly. The policy currently dominates the market, and the prices follow the trend of coking coal. The real - estate industry's downturn suppresses rebar prices. Investors can look for buying opportunities on pullbacks [14]. - **Iron Ore**: The previous trading day, iron ore futures rose slightly. The policy dominates the market, and the price follows coking coal. The short - term supply - demand pattern is strong, but it may weaken in the medium - term. Investors can look for buying opportunities on pullbacks [16]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures rose significantly. After the price fluctuations, the market is returning to the industrial supply - demand logic. Affected by policies, the prices may continue to be strong. Investors can look for buying opportunities on pullbacks [17]. - **Ferroalloys**: The previous trading day, manganese silicon and silicon iron futures rose. The short - term supply may exceed demand, but there may be opportunities to go long at low levels when the cost provides support [19][20]. Energy Products - **Crude Oil**: The previous trading day, INE crude oil opened low and closed high. OPEC+ increased production, and the US non - farm data was poor. The market is complex with high uncertainty. It is recommended to wait and see [21][23]. - **Fuel Oil**: The previous trading day, fuel oil opened low and closed high. The Asian market is well - supplied, and the new US tariff rate is unfavorable to the shipping market. The strategy is to narrow the spread between high - and low - sulfur fuel oils [24][25]. Rubber Products - **Synthetic Rubber**: The previous trading day, synthetic rubber futures rose. The raw material price rebounded, and the supply and demand are improving. Wait for the market to stabilize before participating in the rebound [26]. - **Natural Rubber**: The previous trading day, natural rubber futures rose. The macro - market sentiment has cooled, but there are still opportunities to go long on pullbacks due to supply disruptions and cost support [28]. Chemical Products - **PVC**: The previous trading day, PVC futures rose. The supply exceeds demand, but the price may continue to fluctuate at the bottom [30]. - **Urea**: The previous trading day, urea futures rose. The short - term market may fluctuate, but a bullish view is held for the medium - term [32]. - **PX**: The previous trading day, PX futures fell. The short - term supply - demand balance is tight, and the cost support from crude oil is weakening. Consider range - bound trading [33]. - **PTA**: The previous trading day, PTA futures fell. The short - term supply changes little, demand may weaken, and the cost support from crude oil is weakening. There may be a callback risk, and range - bound trading is recommended [34][35]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The previous trading day, ethylene glycol futures rose. The supply pressure increases, but the low - level inventory provides support. Consider range - bound trading and pay attention to port inventory and imports [36]. - **Short - Fiber**: The previous trading day, short - fiber futures fell. The short - term supply is high, demand is weak, and the price may fluctuate with the cost [37][38]. - **Bottle - Grade Chips**: The previous trading day, bottle - grade chips futures fell. The price may fluctuate with the cost due to raw material price fluctuations and device maintenance [39]. - **Soda Ash**: The previous trading day, soda ash futures rose. The supply is at a high level, and the demand is average. The market is expected to adjust steadily in the short - term [40][41]. - **Glass**: The previous trading day, glass futures fell. The production is stable, the inventory is decreasing, and the demand is weak. The price may be supported by cost in the short - term [42][43]. - **Caustic Soda**: The previous trading day, caustic soda futures fell. The supply is increasing after the resumption of production, and the price is expected to be stable [44][45]. Pulp - The previous trading day, pulp futures fell. The supply tends to expand, the demand is weak, and the price is expected to fluctuate [46][47]. Lithium Carbonate - The previous trading day, lithium carbonate futures fell. The supply is high, the demand is improving but the trading is inactive. It is recommended to be cautious due to the uncertainty in the supply [49]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The previous trading day, Shanghai copper futures rose. The copper concentrate is in short supply, and the support factors for copper prices are weakening. It is recommended to wait and see [51][52]. - **Tin**: The previous trading day, Shanghai tin futures rose. The supply is tight, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to fluctuate [53]. - **Nickel**: The previous trading day, Shanghai nickel futures fell. The supply is in excess, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to fluctuate [54]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal**: The previous trading day, soybean meal and soybean oil futures rose. The supply of soybeans is expected to be loose, and there are opportunities to go long on soybean meal at the support level and exit long positions on soybean oil at high levels [55][57]. - **Palm Oil**: The previous trading day, palm oil futures rose. The inventory is increasing, but there may be opportunities to go long [58][59]. - **Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil**: The previous trading day, rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil futures rose. The supply is expected to increase, and there are opportunities to go long [59][60]. - **Cotton**: The previous trading day, domestic cotton futures rebounded slightly. The global supply - demand is expected to be loose, and it is recommended to short on rebounds [61][63]. - **Sugar**: The previous trading day, domestic sugar futures fell. The production in Brazil is increasing, and it is recommended to wait and see [64][65]. - **Apples**: The previous trading day, apple futures fluctuated. The production is expected to increase slightly, and it is recommended to short on rebounds [67][68]. - **Live Pigs**: The previous trading day, live pig futures rose. The supply is increasing, and the demand is weak in the off - season. It is recommended to wait and see [68][69]. - **Eggs**: The previous trading day, egg futures fell. The supply is increasing, and it is recommended to hold a 9 - 10 reverse spread [70][71]. - **Corn and Corn Starch**: The previous trading day, corn and corn starch futures fell. The short - term supply - demand is balanced, and there are opportunities for virtual call options on old - crop contracts. Corn starch follows the corn market [73][74]. Logs - The previous trading day, log futures fell. The supply is tight, the demand is increasing, and the short - term bullish sentiment is strong [76][77].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Fed's July meeting maintained the benchmark interest rate at 4.25%-4.50% for the fifth consecutive time, in line with market expectations. The Fed's view on economic growth has become more cautious, and concerns about future uncertainties have increased. There are significant internal differences within the Fed, but Powell is still very cautious about rate cuts, which require more reasons such as a further slowdown in the labor market [3][6][16]. - After the release of the Fed's decision, the price fluctuations of major asset classes were relatively small. The Fed has not been the core factor in market trading recently. The Fed's hawkish signals have led to a decline in market rate - cut expectations, a significant rebound in the US dollar index, a notable decline in precious metals, and a slight decline in US stocks [7][9]. - Although the US economic outlook has weakened, the economy remains resilient, especially the labor market. The possibility of a rate cut this year still exists, but more reasons are needed [10][16]. - Different asset classes have different outlooks. US stocks are expected to continue the upward trend but with accumulating risks; the decline of long - term US Treasury yields is restricted; precious metals are in adjustment and need new driving factors; commodities are supported by trade and economic factors; the US dollar may be in a long - term downward cycle; and A - shares are expected to have long - term upward potential [17][18]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 July Fed Meeting Highlights - The Fed maintained the benchmark interest rate at 4.25% - 4.50%, with two Fed governors opposing the decision and advocating a 25 - basis - point rate cut. The Fed's view on the economy has become more cautious, and internal differences have increased. Powell needs to balance the differences among core members and the pressure from Trump. The Fed has not yet cut rates, but a policy inflection point may come if the economy cools or political pressure intensifies [3]. - The meeting did not provide economic forecasts or the dot - plot. Powell said that the overall impact of tariffs on the economy and inflation remains to be seen, and the Fed has not made a decision on September's monetary policy, which depends on employment and inflation data [4]. - The meeting continued the "wait - and - see" tone, did not give clear guidance on the rate - cut timing, and still faced the problem of balancing employment and inflation risks. Powell's speech sent a more hawkish signal to cool market rate - cut expectations [6]. 3.2 Price Movements of Major Asset Classes - After the Fed's decision, the price fluctuations of major asset classes were small. US stocks declined slightly, with the S&P 500 down 0.37%, the Dow Jones down 0.74%, and the Nasdaq down 0.03%. US Treasury yields rose, with the 10 - year yield up 5.16 basis points and the 2 - year yield up 6.56 basis points. The US dollar index rose about 0.9%. WTI crude oil futures fell 1.06%, and precious metals such as gold and platinum declined significantly [7][8][9]. 3.3 Outlook for the US Economy and Fed Monetary Policy - In July, the global trade situation eased, and the US economy remained strong with rising inflation data and increased global risk appetite. The US labor market was robust in June, with better - than - expected non - farm payrolls and a lower - than - expected unemployment rate. The CPI began to rebound under the influence of tariffs [10][11]. - Although the US economic outlook has weakened, the economy remains resilient, especially the labor market. The Fed is under pressure to cut rates, but Powell is cautious, and a rate cut requires more reasons, especially a slowdown in the labor market [16]. 3.4 Views on Subsequent Asset Movements - US stocks are expected to continue rising due to factors such as trade easing, positive fiscal policies, and the prosperity of emerging industries, but risks are accumulating [17]. - The yield of 10 - year US Treasury bonds has remained around 4.4% since the second quarter. The decline of long - term yields is restricted by the potential rise in long - term inflation [17]. - Precious metals' safe - haven and allocation values are strengthened by "de - globalization" and "de - dollarization," but they are in adjustment and need new driving factors. Silver is expected to follow gold's fluctuations [17]. - Commodities are supported by trade easing and the US economic resilience. A potential Fed rate cut and China's "anti - involution" policy may also provide upward momentum [17][18]. - The US dollar index rebounded significantly in July but may be in a long - term downward cycle. The RMB exchange rate has limited depreciation pressure and may enter an appreciation channel [18]. - A - shares are expected to have long - term upward potential. Although the current economic recovery momentum is not strong, there is room for valuation repair and an expected increase in corporate profits [18].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The long - term performance of Chinese equity assets is promising, and it is advisable to consider going long on stock index futures [7]. - The long - term bullish trend of precious metals is expected to continue, and it is recommended to consider going long on gold futures [9]. - For steel products such as rebar and hot - rolled coils, in the short term, they may continue to correct, and investors can focus on low - level buying opportunities after the correction [12]. - The supply and demand pattern of iron ore is strong in the short term but may weaken in the medium term. After the short - term correction, investors can look for low - level buying opportunities [14]. - For coking coal and coke, in the short term, they may continue to fluctuate sharply, and investors can temporarily wait and see [17]. - In the short term, ferroalloys may continue to have oversupply, and after the decline, investors can consider low - level long - position opportunities when the spot falls into the loss range again [20]. - The crude oil market is complex and uncertain, and the main crude oil contract should be temporarily observed [21][22][23]. - The fuel oil market in Asia has sufficient supply, and the main fuel oil contract should be temporarily observed [25]. - For synthetic rubber, wait for the market to stabilize and then participate in the rebound [27]. - For natural rubber, after the correction, pay attention to long - position opportunities [29]. - PVC may fluctuate strongly in the short term [31]. - Urea may fluctuate in the short term and be bullish in the medium term [33]. - PX may fluctuate and adjust in the short term, and interval trading can be considered [35]. - PTA may have a correction risk in the short term and generally maintain a volatile operation, and interval trading can be considered [37]. - For ethylene glycol, in the short term, interval trading is the main strategy, and attention should be paid to port inventory and import changes [38]. - Short - fiber may follow the cost to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to cost changes and macro - policy adjustments [39]. - Bottle - chip is expected to follow the cost to fluctuate, and risk control should be noted [41]. - The soda ash market may continue to adjust at a high level in supply, and the price may be under pressure [42]. - For glass, it should be treated with caution, and attention should be paid to spot trade and regional destocking [44]. - The caustic soda market is gradually returning to the fundamental logic, and the price may be affected by supply and demand [47]. - The pulp market has supply pressure, and the price may fluctuate and organize [49]. - For lithium carbonate, it is advisable to watch more and trade less and control risks [52]. - For copper, pay attention to short - position opportunities [54]. - Tin is expected to fluctuate [58]. - Nickel is expected to fluctuate [59]. - For soybean meal, consider long - position opportunities in the support range after adjustment; for soybean oil, consider taking profits when the price rises to a high level [60][61][62]. - Consider long - position opportunities for palm oil [63]. - Consider long - position opportunities for rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil [66]. - For cotton, it is recommended to go short after a rebound [68]. - Sugar is recommended to be observed, and it may run in an interval [71]. - For apples, go short after a rebound [75]. - For live pigs, consider gradually taking profits on previous short positions [77]. - For eggs, consider a 9 - 10 reverse spread [80]. - For corn, consider virtual call option opportunities in the low - level interval of the near - month contract; corn starch follows the corn market [82]. - For logs, the market may be driven by relevant policies, and the inventory is slightly destocked [86]. Summary by Related Catalogs Treasury Bonds - On the previous trading day, the closing performance of treasury bond futures was divided. The central bank carried out 126 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 663.3 billion yuan on the same day. The central bank requires to continue implementing a moderately loose monetary policy. The US non - farm data was poor, and the treasury bond futures are expected to have no trend market and should be treated with caution [5][6]. Stock Index - On the previous trading day, stock index futures rose and fell differently. The government will resume levying VAT on the interest income of newly issued bonds after August 8, 2025. Although the domestic economic recovery momentum is not strong, the long - term performance of Chinese equity assets is promising, and it is advisable to consider going long on stock index futures [7]. Precious Metals - On the previous trading day, gold and silver futures had different performances. The complex global trade and financial environment, central bank gold - buying behavior, and the expected Fed rate cut are favorable for the long - term bullish trend of precious metals, and it is recommended to consider going long on gold futures [9]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - On the previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures fell slightly. Policy expectations dominate the short - term market, and in the medium term, the price will return to the supply - demand logic. The downward trend of the real estate industry suppresses the rebar price. Investors can focus on low - level buying opportunities after the correction [12]. Iron Ore - On the previous trading day, iron ore futures fluctuated and sorted out. Policy expectations affect the market, and the supply - demand pattern is strong in the short term but may weaken in the medium term. After the short - term correction, investors can look for low - level buying opportunities [14]. Coking Coal and Coke - On the previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures fell sharply. The limit - position measure of the Dalian Commodity Exchange is the direct cause of the decline. In the medium term, the price will return to the supply - demand logic. Investors can temporarily wait and see [17]. Ferroalloys - On the previous trading day, manganese silicon and ferrosilicon futures fell. The supply of manganese ore has increased recently, and the supply of ferroalloys is still high while the demand is weak. After the decline, investors can consider low - level long - position opportunities when the spot falls into the loss range again [19][20]. Crude Oil - On the previous trading day, INE crude oil fluctuated downward. The CFTC data shows changes in the net long positions of speculators. The Baker Hughes report shows a decrease in the number of oil and gas rigs. The OPEC + meeting may increase production in September. The market is complex and uncertain, and the main contract should be temporarily observed [21][22][23]. Fuel Oil - On the previous trading day, fuel oil fluctuated in an interval. A large amount of fuel oil is expected to arrive in Asia in August, resulting in sufficient supply in the Asian market. The main contract should be temporarily observed [25]. Synthetic Rubber - On the previous trading day, synthetic rubber futures fell. The raw material price has rebounded, and the supply and demand situation has changed. Wait for the market to stabilize and then participate in the rebound [27]. Natural Rubber - On the previous trading day, natural rubber futures fell. The macro - market sentiment has cooled down, and the supply - side disturbance has temporarily slowed down. After the correction, pay attention to long - position opportunities [29]. PVC - On the previous trading day, PVC futures fell. The supply exceeds demand, but the downward space is limited. In the short term, it may fluctuate strongly. The production has decreased slightly, and the demand is weak [31]. Urea - On the previous trading day, urea futures fell. The supply is still high, and the demand of downstream products has increased. It may fluctuate in the short term and be bullish in the medium term [33]. PX - On the previous trading day, PX futures fell. The supply and demand are in a tight balance in the short term, and the cost support of crude oil has weakened. It may fluctuate and adjust in the short term, and interval trading can be considered [35]. PTA - On the previous trading day, PTA futures fell. The supply changes little in the short term, the demand is expected to weaken, and the cost support of crude oil has weakened. It may have a correction risk and maintain a volatile operation, and interval trading can be considered [36][37]. Ethylene Glycol - On the previous trading day, ethylene glycol futures fell. The supply pressure has increased, but the inventory has decreased and is at a low level. In the short term, interval trading is the main strategy, and attention should be paid to port inventory and import changes [38]. Short - Fiber - On the previous trading day, short - fiber futures fell. The supply has increased, and the demand is general. It may follow the cost to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to cost changes and macro - policy adjustments [39]. Bottle - Chip - On the previous trading day, bottle - chip futures fell. The number of device overhauls has increased, and the demand of downstream products has increased. It is expected to follow the cost to fluctuate, and risk control should be noted [41]. Soda Ash - On the previous trading day, soda ash futures fell. The production has decreased, and the inventory has decreased. The downstream glass supply has changed. The supply may continue to adjust at a high level, and the price may be under pressure [42]. Glass - On the previous trading day, glass futures fell. The production line is stable, and the destocking speed has increased. The market sentiment has cooled down, and it should be treated with caution. Attention should be paid to spot trade and regional destocking [44]. Caustic Soda - On the previous trading day, caustic soda futures fell. The supply and demand situation is complex, and the market is gradually returning to the fundamental logic. The price may be affected by supply and demand [47]. Pulp - On the previous trading day, pulp futures fell. The supply has an expansion tendency, and the demand of downstream products is weak. The "anti - involution" policy sentiment has cooled down, and the price may fluctuate and organize [49]. Lithium Carbonate - On the previous trading day, lithium carbonate futures rose. The supply is still high, and the demand has improved, but the trading is still cold. The supply of the ore end is uncertain, and it is advisable to watch more and trade less and control risks [52]. Copper - On the previous trading day, Shanghai copper fluctuated upward. The US tariff policy and supply - demand factors affect the copper price. The copper price is in a downward trend in the interval, and pay attention to short - position opportunities [54]. Tin - On the previous trading day, Shanghai tin fluctuated. The supply of the ore end is tight, and the consumption is in the off - season. The inventory is decreasing, and it is expected to fluctuate [58]. Nickel - On the previous trading day, Shanghai nickel rose slightly. The price of the ore end has weakened, and the demand of downstream products is not optimistic. The inventory is relatively high, and it is expected to fluctuate [59]. Soybean Meal and Soybean Oil - On the previous trading day, soybean meal and soybean oil futures rose. The weather in the main production areas is suitable, and the market has good expectations for a bumper harvest. The inventory of soybean meal has increased, and the inventory pressure of soybean oil is emerging. For soybean meal, consider long - position opportunities in the support range after adjustment; for soybean oil, consider taking profits when the price rises to a high level [60][61][62]. Palm Oil - Malaysian palm oil futures were affected by the exchange rate and tariff policies. The export volume in July decreased, and the domestic inventory has increased. Consider long - position opportunities [63]. Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - Canadian rapeseed futures fell. The domestic import volume of rapeseed and its products has changed. The inventory situation is different. Consider long - position opportunities [66]. Cotton - Domestic and foreign cotton futures fell. The US cotton production and inventory are expected to increase, and the domestic production is expected to increase. The global supply and demand are expected to be loose, and it is recommended to go short after a rebound [68]. Sugar - Domestic and foreign sugar futures had different performances. The sugar production in Brazil has accelerated, and Thailand and India are expected to have a bumper harvest. The domestic inventory is low, and the import volume is high. It is recommended to observe, and it may run in an interval [71]. Apples - Domestic apple futures fell. The expected reduction in production has been falsified, and the production is expected to increase slightly. Go short after a rebound [75]. Live Pigs - The national average price of live pigs fell. The supply has increased, and the demand is weak in the off - season. Consider gradually taking profits on previous short positions [77]. Eggs - The price of eggs fell. The inventory of laying hens is increasing, and the supply is expected to increase. Consider a 9 - 10 reverse spread [80]. Corn and Corn Starch - Corn and corn starch futures fell. The US and Brazilian corn are expected to have a bumper harvest. The domestic supply and demand are approaching balance, and the inventory pressure has decreased. For corn, consider virtual call option opportunities in the low - level interval of the near - month contract; corn starch follows the corn market [82]. Logs - Log futures fell. The import volume from New Zealand has decreased, and the inventory has decreased slightly. The relevant policy may drive the market [86].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The macro - economic recovery momentum needs to be strengthened, and it is expected that the monetary policy will remain loose. Most financial and commodity markets are affected by various factors such as policies, supply - demand relationships, and geopolitical situations, showing different trends and investment opportunities [6]. Summary by Directory 1. Fixed - Income (Bonds) - **Treasury Bonds**: On the previous trading day, treasury bond futures closed up across the board. The central bank conducted 2832 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 478 billion yuan. The current macro - economic recovery momentum is weak, and it is expected that treasury bond futures will have no trend - based market, so one should remain cautious [5][6]. 2. Equity Index Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: Although the previous trading day saw mixed results in stock index futures, considering that domestic asset valuations are low and the Chinese economy has sufficient resilience, the long - term performance of Chinese equity assets is still favored, and one can consider going long on stock index futures [8]. 3. Precious Metals - **Precious Metals**: On the previous trading day, gold and silver futures closed down. Due to factors such as the complex global trade and financial environment, the "de - globalization" and "de - dollarization" trends, and the potential for the Fed to cut interest rates, the long - term bullish trend of precious metals is expected to continue, and one can consider going long on gold futures [10]. 4. Base Metals and Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: On the previous trading day, Shanghai copper fell sharply. The White House's decision to impose tariffs on imported semi - finished copper products led to a sharp decline in US copper, and Shanghai and London copper followed suit. The supply of spot goods is tight, but the support factors for copper prices are weakening [57]. - **Tin**: On the previous trading day, Shanghai tin fluctuated. The supply of tin ore is tight, but the expectation of tin ore resumption of production in the fourth quarter has increased. The overall supply is still in short supply, and it is expected that tin prices will fluctuate [58]. - **Nickel**: On the previous trading day, Shanghai nickel fell. The price of nickel ore has weakened, and the inventory in domestic ports has started to accumulate. The consumption situation is not optimistic, and it is expected that nickel prices will fluctuate [59]. - **Iron Ore**: On the previous trading day, iron ore futures fell sharply. Policy expectations are the dominant factor in the market, and iron ore prices follow the trend of coking coal. In the short term, it may continue to correct, and investors can pay attention to buying opportunities at low levels after the correction [14][15]. - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: On the previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures fell sharply. Policy expectations are the main factor affecting the market. After short - term fluctuations, the prices of finished products are expected to return to the guidance of the supply - demand logic of the industry. The real estate downturn and over - capacity are the core factors suppressing rebar prices. Investors can pay attention to buying opportunities at low levels after the correction [12]. 5. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: On the previous trading day, INE crude oil fluctuated upwards. Due to factors such as the US - South Korea trade agreement, geopolitical risks, and US sanctions on Iran, crude oil prices are expected to be supported, and one can consider going long on the main crude oil contract [22][23]. - **Fuel Oil**: On the previous trading day, fuel oil fluctuated downwards. The supply of fuel oil in Asia is sufficient, but the signing of trade agreements between the US and other countries is beneficial to the shipping market, so one can consider going long on the main fuel oil contract [25][26]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: On the previous trading day, synthetic rubber fell. The raw material price has rebounded, but the production is still slightly in the red. Wait for the market to stabilize and then participate in the rebound [28]. - **Natural Rubber**: On the previous trading day, natural rubber fell. Supply is affected by rainfall, and demand is stable. It is expected that natural rubber will show a relatively strong oscillatory trend [30]. - **PVC**: On the previous trading day, PVC fell. The supply - demand imbalance persists, but the downward space is limited. It is expected that the market will show a relatively strong oscillatory trend [32]. - **Urea**: On the previous trading day, urea fell. In the short term, it will follow the spot market fluctuations, while in the medium term, a bullish view is maintained [37]. - **Para - Xylene (PX)**: On the previous trading day, PX fell. The short - term supply - demand balance is tight, and the cost of crude oil provides support. It may oscillate and adjust, and one should participate with caution [39][40]. - **PTA**: On the previous trading day, PTA fell. The short - term supply - demand situation has little change, and the cost of crude oil provides some support. It may oscillate, and one should participate within a range [41]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: On the previous trading day, ethylene glycol fell. The supply pressure is increasing, but the inventory decline provides some support. One should be cautious about the upside space and participate within a range [42][43]. - **Short - Fiber**: On the previous trading day, short - fiber fell. The short - term supply is high, the demand is weak, and the inventory is accumulating. It may follow the cost to oscillate, and one should pay attention to cost changes and macro - policy adjustments [44]. - **Bottle Chips**: On the previous trading day, bottle chips fell. The recent increase in equipment maintenance has led to inventory reduction, and it is expected to follow the cost to oscillate [45][46]. - **Soda Ash**: On the previous trading day, soda ash fell. The supply is at a high level, and the demand is average. It is expected to oscillate in the short term [47]. - **Glass**: On the previous trading day, glass fell. The inventory is decreasing, but the market is still in a state of multi - empty game. One should continue to pay attention to spot trading and inventory changes [48][49]. - **Caustic Soda**: On the previous trading day, caustic soda fell. The supply is expected to increase in the second half of the year, while the demand growth is limited. The price is expected to fluctuate narrowly [50][51]. - **Pulp**: On the previous trading day, pulp fell. The supply has an expansion tendency, and the downstream demand is weak. The pulp price is expected to oscillate and adjust [52][53]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: On the previous trading day, lithium carbonate fell. The supply - demand imbalance persists, and the supply from the mining end is uncertain. One should mainly watch and control risks [55]. 6. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal**: On the previous trading day, soybean oil and soybean meal fell. The good weather in the main production areas has increased the expectation of a bumper harvest. The supply of soybeans is expected to be loose. One can consider going long on soybean meal after the adjustment and exiting long positions in soybean oil at high levels [60][61]. - **Palm Oil**: On the previous trading day, palm oil fell. The export volume has decreased, but the domestic consumption is increasing. One can consider going long on palm oil [62][63]. - **Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil**: On the previous trading day, rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil showed relatively strong performance. The inventory of rapeseed is decreasing, and one can consider going long on rapeseed - related products [64][65]. - **Cotton**: On the previous trading day, domestic cotton fell. The global supply - demand is expected to be loose, and the domestic supply is expected to increase. One is advised to short the far - month contracts in batches at high levels [66][68]. - **Sugar**: On the previous trading day, domestic sugar fluctuated. The expected global bumper harvest has put pressure on sugar prices. It is recommended to wait and see [70]. - **Apple**: On the previous trading day, apple futures oscillated. The expected reduction in production has been disproved, and the market is expected to be affected by anti - involution policies. It is recommended to wait and see [74][76]. - **Live Pigs**: On the previous trading day, live pig futures fell. The supply is expected to increase in the future, and the demand in summer is weak. One can consider closing out short positions gradually [78][79]. - **Eggs**: On the previous trading day, egg futures fell. The supply of eggs is expected to increase in July, and one can consider a 9 - 10 spread reversal strategy [80][82]. - **Corn and Corn Starch**: On the previous trading day, corn and corn starch futures fell. The supply - demand of corn is approaching balance, and the price has support at low levels. Corn starch follows the corn market [83][84]. - **Logs**: On the previous trading day, log futures fell. The inventory of logs is decreasing slightly, and relevant policies may drive the forestry market. [88][90]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The macroeconomic recovery momentum remains to be strengthened, and it is expected that monetary policy will remain loose. Treasury bond futures are expected to have no trending market, so a certain degree of caution is advised [7]. - The domestic economy remains stable, but the recovery momentum of the domestic macro - economy is not strong. However, considering the low valuation of domestic assets and the resilience of the Chinese economy, the long - term performance of Chinese equity assets is still optimistic, and it is advisable to consider going long on stock index futures [8]. - Due to the complex global trade and financial environment, the "de - globalization" and "de - dollarization" trends, and the gold - buying behavior of central banks, the long - term bull market trend of precious metals is expected to continue, and it is advisable to consider going long on gold futures [10]. - For steel products such as rebar and hot - rolled coils, after short - term fluctuations, the price is expected to return to the guidance of industrial supply - demand logic. The downward trend of the real estate industry suppresses the price of rebar futures, while the steel industry's stable growth policy may be a positive factor. It is advisable to pay attention to the low - level buying opportunities after the correction [12]. - For iron ore, the short - term supply - demand pattern remains strong, but it may weaken in the medium term. It is advisable to pay attention to the low - level buying opportunities after the correction [14]. - For coking coal and coke, after the sharp decline, the market may return to the industrial supply - demand logic. It is necessary to focus on the actual impact of policies on coking coal supply, and it is advisable for investors to temporarily wait and see [16]. - For ferroalloys, the short - term demand has peaked, and the supply is still high. It is advisable to pay attention to the opportunity to exit long positions when the market continues to rise, and consider long positions in the low - level support range if there is a decline [19]. - For crude oil, although the decline in the number of active oil rigs in the US provides some support for oil prices, the reduction of net long positions by CFTC fund managers shows a bearish sentiment. It is advisable to pay attention to the long - position opportunities in the main crude oil contract [20][23]. - For fuel oil, the supply in the Asian market is sufficient, but the trade agreements between the US and other regions are beneficial to the shipping market, so it is advisable to pay attention to the long - position opportunities in the main fuel oil contract [24][25]. - For synthetic rubber, it is advisable to wait for the market to stabilize before participating in the rebound [26][28]. - For natural rubber, due to supply disturbances and stable demand, it is expected to show a strong and volatile trend [29][30]. - For PVC, although the supply exceeds demand, the downward space is limited. It is expected to show a strong and volatile trend in the short term [31][34]. - For urea, the short - term market may fluctuate, but it is advisable to take a bullish view in the medium term [35]. - For PX, the short - term supply - demand balance remains tight, and the cost of crude oil provides support. It is advisable to participate cautiously and pay attention to the cost of crude oil and macro - policies [36]. - For PTA, the short - term supply - demand changes are not significant, and the cost of crude oil provides some support. There may be a callback risk in the short term, and it is advisable to participate within a range [37]. - For ethylene glycol, the supply pressure increases, but the inventory is at a low level. It is advisable to participate within a range and pay attention to port inventory and imports [38]. - For short - fiber, the short - term supply is high, the demand is weak, and the inventory accumulates. It is expected to fluctuate with the cost, and it is necessary to control risks [39]. - For bottle - chip, the raw material price fluctuates, the device maintenance increases, and the inventory decreases. It is expected to fluctuate with the cost, and it is necessary to control risks [40]. - For soda ash, the supply is at a high level, and the demand is average. It is expected to show a volatile trend in the short term, and it is advisable to treat it rationally [42]. - For glass, the inventory reduction speed has increased, but the long - term focus is on the elimination of old production capacity. It is advisable to treat it cautiously [43]. - For caustic soda, the supply is expected to increase in the second half of the year, and the demand growth is limited. It is advisable to control risks [44][45]. - For pulp, the supply has an expansion tendency, and the demand is weak. The pulp price is expected to fluctuate, and it is advisable to pay attention to policies and actual transactions [46][48]. - For lithium carbonate, the supply - demand pattern of excess remains unchanged, and there is uncertainty in the supply side. It is advisable to watch more and move less and control risks [49][50]. - For copper, the copper market is affected by factors such as US tariffs and weak Chinese stimulus policies. It is advisable to temporarily wait and see for the main Shanghai copper contract [52][53]. - For tin, the supply is tight, and the consumption is not optimistic. It is expected that the tin price will fluctuate [54][55]. - For nickel, the supply is in an excess pattern, and the demand is weak. It is expected that the nickel price will fluctuate [56]. - For soybean oil and soybean meal, the supply of soybeans is expected to be loose, and the cost provides support. It is advisable to pay attention to long - position opportunities for soybean meal after adjustment and long - position exit opportunities for soybean oil at high levels [57][58]. - For palm oil, due to factors such as price increases and potential import growth, it is advisable to pay attention to long - position opportunities [59][60]. - For rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil, considering supply and demand factors, it is advisable to pay attention to long - position opportunities for rapeseed products [61][62]. - For cotton, the global supply - demand is expected to be loose, and it is advisable to short the far - month contracts in batches at high levels [63][64][65]. - For sugar, the Brazilian production is lower than expected, while Thailand and India are expected to have a bumper harvest. It is advisable to wait and see [66][67]. - For apples, the expected production reduction is disproven, and it is advisable to wait and see [69][70]. - For live pigs, the supply is abundant, and the demand is weak. It is advisable to gradually take profit on previous short positions [71][72]. - For eggs, the supply is expected to increase in July, and it is advisable to consider the 9 - 10 reverse spread [73][75]. - For corn and starch, the domestic corn supply - demand is approaching balance, and it is advisable to pay attention to the opportunity of out - of - the - money call options for the near - month corn contract. Corn starch follows the corn market [76][78]. - For logs, the inventory shows a slight reduction, and relevant policies may drive the forestry market [80][81]. Summary by Directory Treasury Bonds - The previous trading day, treasury bond futures closed up across the board, with the 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year main contracts rising by 0.40%, 0.15%, 0.08%, and 0.03% respectively [5]. - The central bank conducted 309 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 158.5 billion yuan [5]. Stock Index Futures - The previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed performance, with the IF, IH, IC, and IM main contracts changing by 0.04%, 0.28%, - 0.42%, and - 0.43% respectively [8]. Precious Metals - The previous trading day, the gold main contract closed at 773.78 with a 0.30% increase, and the silver main contract closed at 9,192 with a - 0.03% change [10]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils - The previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures fluctuated and consolidated. The spot prices of Tangshan billet, Shanghai rebar, and Shanghai hot - rolled coils were reported [12]. Iron Ore - The previous trading day, iron ore futures declined slightly. The PB powder and Super Special powder port spot prices were reported [14]. Coking Coal and Coke - The previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures rebounded significantly. The recent sharp decline was due to the position - limit measure of coking coal futures [16]. Ferroalloys - The previous trading day, the manganese - silicon main contract fell 0.42% to 6116 yuan/ton, and the silicon - iron main contract rose 0.77% to 6008 yuan/ton [18]. Crude Oil - The previous trading day, INE crude oil rose significantly. Relevant data on CFTC positions, Baker Hughes rig numbers, and OPEC meetings were reported [20]. Fuel Oil - The previous trading day, fuel oil fluctuated upward. The Asian fuel oil spot spread was stable, and some companies' sales information was reported [24]. Synthetic Rubber - The previous trading day, the synthetic rubber main contract fell 0.67%. The raw material price, supply, demand, and inventory situations were reported [26][27]. Natural Rubber - The previous trading day, the natural rubber main contract fell 0.20%, and the 20 - rubber main contract fell 0.71%. The supply, demand, and inventory situations were reported [29]. PVC - The previous trading day, the PVC main contract fell 0.04%. The supply, demand, and cost - profit situations were reported [31]. Urea - The previous trading day, the urea main contract rose 0.17%. The supply and demand situations were reported [35]. PX - The previous trading day, the PX2509 main contract rose 0.66%. The supply, demand, and cost situations were reported [36]. PTA - The previous trading day, the PTA2509 main contract rose 0.41%. The supply, demand, and profit situations were reported [37]. Ethylene Glycol - The previous trading day, the ethylene glycol main contract fluctuated and adjusted. The supply, demand, and inventory situations were reported [38]. Short - Fiber - The previous trading day, the short - fiber 2509 main contract fell 0.03%. The supply and demand situations were reported [39]. Bottle - Chip - The previous trading day, the bottle - chip 2509 main contract fluctuated and adjusted. The supply and demand situations were reported [40]. Soda Ash - The previous trading day's night session, the main 2509 contract closed at 1292 yuan/ton, down 3.08%. The supply, demand, and inventory situations were reported [41][42]. Glass - The previous trading day's night session, the main 2509 contract closed at 1168 yuan/ton, down 4.03%. The production line, inventory, and market situations were reported [43]. Caustic Soda - The previous trading day, the main 2509 contract closed at 2613 yuan/ton, up 0.11%. The supply, demand, and profit situations were reported [44]. Pulp - The previous trading day, the main 2509 contract closed at 5326 yuan/ton, down 1.08%. The supply, demand, and price situations were reported [46][47]. Lithium Carbonate - The previous trading day, the lithium carbonate main contract rose 0.43% to 70600 yuan/ton. The supply and demand situations were reported [49]. Copper - The previous trading day, Shanghai copper rose and then fell. The spot price and market situation were reported [52]. Tin - The previous trading day, Shanghai tin fluctuated, down 0.39%. The supply and demand situations were reported [54]. Nickel - The previous trading day, Shanghai nickel fell 0.9%. The supply and demand situations were reported [56]. Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - The previous trading day, the soybean meal main contract rose 1.21% to 3010 yuan/ton, and the soybean oil main contract rose 0.81% to 8240 yuan/ton. The supply, demand, and inventory situations were reported [57]. Palm Oil - Malaysian palm oil closed up on Wednesday. The export, inventory, and consumption situations were reported [59]. Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - Canadian rapeseed prices fell. The domestic import, supply, and demand situations were reported [61][62]. Cotton - The previous day, domestic Zhengzhou cotton fell slightly. The global and domestic supply - demand situations were reported [63][64]. Sugar - The previous day, domestic Zhengzhou sugar rose and then fell. The global and domestic supply - demand situations were reported [66][67]. Apples - The previous day, domestic apple futures fluctuated. The production and inventory situations were reported [69]. Live Pigs - The previous day, the national average price of live pigs was 13.93 yuan/kg. The supply and demand situations were reported [71]. Eggs - The previous trading day, the main - producing area egg price was 3.18 yuan/jin, and the main - selling area egg price was 3.47 yuan/jin. The supply and demand situations were reported [73]. Corn and Starch - The previous trading day, the corn main contract rose 0.26% to 2312 yuan/ton, and the corn starch main contract rose 0.45% to 2683 yuan/ton. The supply, demand, and inventory situations were reported [76][77]. Logs - The previous trading day, the main 2509 contract closed at 825.0 yuan/ton, down 0.60%. The supply, demand, and inventory situations were reported [79][80]

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1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - For Treasury bonds, it's expected that there won't be a trending market, and caution is advised [6][7]. - Regarding stock indices, the long - term performance of Chinese equity assets is optimistic, and going long on stock index futures is considered [10][11]. - For precious metals, the long - term bull market trend is expected to continue, and going long on gold futures is considered [13][14]. - In the case of rebar and hot - rolled coils, investors can focus on low - position long opportunities after the correction [15]. - For iron ore, investors can look for low - position buying opportunities after the correction [17][18]. - For coking coal and coke, investors are advised to wait and see [20][21]. - Regarding ferroalloys, long - position exit opportunities can be considered when the market continues to rise, and long positions at low - support intervals can be considered if there is a decline [23]. - For crude oil, investors can focus on long opportunities in the main contract [26]. - For fuel oil, investors can focus on long opportunities in the main contract [28]. - For synthetic rubber, wait for the market to stabilize and then participate in the rebound [29][31]. - For natural rubber, it's expected to oscillate strongly [32][33]. - For PVC, it's expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [34][38]. - For urea, it will fluctuate in the short term and be bullish in the medium term [39][40]. - For PX, it may oscillate and adjust in the future, and investors should participate cautiously [42]. - For PTA, it may oscillate in the short term, and investors should participate in the range [43]. - For ethylene glycol, investors should be cautious about the upside space in the short term and participate in the range [44][45]. - For staple fiber, it may oscillate following the cost, and pay attention to cost changes and macro - policy adjustments [46]. - For bottle chips, it's expected to oscillate following the cost [47][48]. - For glass, continue to pay attention to spot trading and regional de - stocking; in the long - term, focus on the implementation of capacity clearance of old production lines [49][50]. - For caustic soda, the positive support is relatively limited, and it's affected by macro - sentiment recently [52]. - For pulp, the pulp price is expected to fluctuate and adjust, and pay attention to policy trends and actual spot transactions [54][55]. - For lithium carbonate, it's advisable to watch more and act less and control risks [56]. - For copper, there is still a basis for an upward trend [58]. - For tin, it's expected to oscillate [59]. - For nickel, it's expected to oscillate [60]. - For soybean oil and soybean meal, consider long opportunities in the support interval for soybean meal after adjustment; for soybean oil, consider call option opportunities in the support interval after the decline [62]. - For palm oil, consider long opportunities after the correction [64]. - For rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil, consider long opportunities [65]. - For cotton, it's recommended to short far - month contracts in batches at high prices [67][68]. - For sugar, it's recommended to wait and see [71]. - For apples, it's recommended to wait and see [75]. - For live pigs, consider holding previous short positions [77]. - For eggs, consider a 9 - 10 reverse spread [80]. - For corn and starch, consider virtual - value call option opportunities in the previous low - level interval for near - month corn contracts; corn starch follows the corn market [83]. - For logs, the market has returned to the actual spot situation [87]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Treasury Bonds - Last trading day, treasury bond futures closed up across the board. The central bank conducted 495.8 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 325.1 billion yuan. The national parenting subsidy system implementation plan was announced [5]. - The current macro - economic recovery momentum needs to be strengthened, and the treasury bond yield is at a relatively low level [6]. Stock Indices - Last trading day, stock index futures showed mixed results. The national industrial and information technology conference emphasized measures to expand domestic demand [8][9]. - The domestic economic recovery momentum is weak, but asset valuations are low, and China's economy has resilience. The long - term performance of Chinese equity assets is optimistic [10]. Precious Metals - Last trading day, gold and silver futures closed down. The US and the EU reached a 15% tariff agreement [12]. - The global trade and financial environment is complex, and the long - term bull market trend of precious metals is expected to continue [13]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils - Last trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures fell sharply. Policy expectations dominate the market, and the actual supply - demand pattern is secondary [15]. Iron Ore - Last trading day, iron ore futures fell sharply. Policy expectations are the core influencing factor. The supply - demand pattern is still strong, but it may adjust in the short term [17]. Coking Coal and Coke - Last trading day, coking coal and coke futures hit the daily limit down. The direct cause was the position - limit measure, and the deep - seated reason was the excessive previous rise. The supply - contraction policy has become a reality [20]. Ferroalloys - Last trading day, manganese silicon and ferrosilicon futures closed down. The supply of manganese ore has increased, and the supply of ferroalloys is still high while the demand is weak [22][23]. Crude Oil - Last trading day, INE crude oil opened high and closed low. Fund managers reduced their net long positions, and the number of US oil rigs decreased. OPEC+ is unlikely to change the production plan [24][25]. Fuel Oil - Last trading day, fuel oil oscillated downward. The fuel oil inventory in Japan and Singapore has changed. The supply in the Asian market is sufficient, but trade agreements are beneficial to the shipping market [27]. Synthetic Rubber - Last trading day, synthetic rubber futures closed down. The raw material price has rebounded, and the supply and demand situation has changed. Wait for the market to stabilize [29][30]. Natural Rubber - Last trading day, natural rubber futures closed down. The supply is affected by rainfall, and the demand has recovered slightly. It's expected to oscillate strongly [32]. PVC - Last trading day, PVC futures closed down. The supply is excessive, but the downward space may be limited. It's expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [34]. Urea - Last trading day, urea futures closed down. The supply - demand situation has weakened recently, and it will fluctuate in the short term and be bullish in the medium term [39]. PX - Last trading day, PX futures rose. The supply load has decreased, and the import volume has changed. The short - term supply - demand balance is tight, and it may oscillate and adjust [41][42]. PTA - Last trading day, PTA futures fell. The supply and demand have changed little, and the cost has some support. It may oscillate in the short term [43]. Ethylene Glycol - Last trading day, ethylene glycol futures fell. The supply pressure has increased, but the inventory has decreased. Be cautious about the upside space in the short term [44]. Staple Fiber - Last trading day, staple fiber futures fell. The supply is high, and the demand is weak. It may oscillate following the cost [46]. Bottle Chips - Last trading day, bottle chips futures fell. The device maintenance has increased, and the demand has recovered. It's expected to oscillate following the cost [47]. Glass - Last trading day, glass futures fell. The inventory has decreased, and the price in some regions has risen. The market sentiment fluctuates, and the follow - up needs to focus on spot trading and de - stocking [49][50]. Caustic Soda - Last trading day, caustic soda futures fell. The production has increased, and the inventory has changed. The positive support is limited [51][52]. Pulp - Last trading day, pulp futures fell. The supply has an expansion tendency, and the demand is weak. The pulp price is expected to fluctuate and adjust [53][54]. Lithium Carbonate - Last trading day, lithium carbonate futures fell. The supply is abundant, and the demand has improved slightly, but the trading is inactive. Be cautious and control risks [56]. Copper - Last trading day, Shanghai copper oscillated downward. The spot premium is expected to remain weak, but there is still a basis for an upward trend [58]. Tin - Last trading day, Shanghai tin oscillated. The supply of tin ore is tight, and the consumption is weak. It's expected to oscillate [59]. Nickel - Last trading day, Shanghai nickel fell. The supply is excessive, and the consumption is not optimistic. It's expected to oscillate [60]. Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - Last trading day, soybean oil and soybean meal futures closed down. The US soybean yield is expected to be good, and the domestic supply is relatively loose. Consider different investment opportunities for soybean oil and soybean meal [61][62]. Palm Oil - Malaysian palm oil fell. The export volume has decreased, and the domestic inventory has increased. Consider long opportunities after the correction [63][64]. Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - Canadian rapeseed weakened. The domestic import volume has changed, and the inventory situation is different. Consider long opportunities [65]. Cotton - Last trading day, domestic cotton oscillated at a high level. The global supply - demand is expected to be loose, and it's recommended to short far - month contracts in batches at high prices [66][67][68]. Sugar - Last trading day, domestic sugar oscillated strongly. The Brazilian sugar production is lower than expected, and the domestic inventory and import volume have changed. It's recommended to wait and see [69][71]. Apples - Last trading day, domestic apple futures rose sharply and then fell. The expected production reduction has been falsified. It's recommended to wait and see [73][74][75]. Live Pigs - The national average price of live pigs fell. The supply is abundant, and the demand is average. Consider holding previous short positions [76][77]. Eggs - The average price of eggs in the main production and sales areas fell. The supply is increasing, and it's recommended to consider a 9 - 10 reverse spread [78][80]. Corn and Starch - Last trading day, corn and starch futures rose. The US corn yield is expected to be good, and the domestic supply - demand is approaching balance. Consider option opportunities for corn and follow the corn market for starch [81][83]. Logs - Last trading day, log futures rose. The supply has increased, and the inventory has decreased. The market has returned to the actual spot situation [84][85][87].

Report Industry Investment Ratings There is no information provided regarding the report's industry investment ratings in the given content. Core Views of the Report - The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various futures products, including their market performance, influencing factors, and investment strategies. It assesses the market conditions based on factors such as macro - economic data, supply - demand dynamics, and policy expectations [5][9][11]. - Different futures products have different investment outlooks. For example, some are expected to have long - term bullish trends, while others may experience short - term fluctuations or require cautious investment [7][10][13]. Summary by Related Catalogs Treasury Bonds - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, most treasury bond futures closed lower. The 30 - year and 10 - year main contracts hit new lows since early April [5]. - **Influencing Factors**: Current macro - data is stable, but the macro - economic recovery momentum needs strengthening. Monetary policy is expected to remain loose. The treasury bond yield is at a relatively low level, and there is uncertainty in the Sino - US trade agreement [6]. - **Investment Strategy**: It is expected that there will be no trend - based market, and investors should remain cautious [7]. Stock Index Futures - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed results. The CSI 300 and SSE 50 futures main contracts declined, while the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 futures main contracts had small changes [8]. - **Influencing Factors**: The domestic economy is stable, but the recovery momentum is weak, and the market lacks confidence in corporate earnings. However, domestic asset valuations are low, and the Chinese economy has sufficient resilience [9]. - **Investment Strategy**: The long - term performance of Chinese equity assets is optimistic, and investors can consider going long on stock index futures [10]. Precious Metals - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the gold main contract closed with a decline, and the silver main contract had a small increase [11]. - **Influencing Factors**: The global trade and financial environment is complex, and the "de - globalization" and "de - dollarization" trends are beneficial to the allocation and hedging value of gold. Central bank gold - buying and potential Fed rate cuts also support gold prices [11][12]. - **Investment Strategy**: The long - term bullish trend of precious metals is expected to continue, and investors can consider going long on gold futures [13]. Steel Products (Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil) - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures fluctuated at high levels [14]. - **Influencing Factors**: Policy expectations dominate the market, and the actual supply - demand pattern is secondary. The expectation of steel supply contraction is strengthening [14]. - **Investment Strategy**: The futures may turn to a short - term oscillation. Investors can pay attention to opportunities to go long on dips and manage their positions carefully [14]. Iron Ore - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, iron ore futures declined slightly [15]. - **Influencing Factors**: Policy expectations have boosted the market, but the supply - demand pattern has weakened marginally. Iron ore imports have increased, and port inventories are stable [15]. - **Investment Strategy**: The futures may turn to a short - term oscillation. Investors can pay attention to low - level buying opportunities and manage their positions carefully [15]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures tumbled, with some contracts hitting the daily limit [16]. - **Influencing Factors**: The direct cause was the exchange's position - limit measures, and the deep - seated reason was the over - accumulated gains. Supply - contraction policies are becoming a reality [16]. - **Investment Strategy**: The futures may experience sharp fluctuations in the short term. Investors can temporarily stay on the sidelines [16]. Ferroalloys - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, manganese silicon and silicon iron main contracts rose significantly [18]. - **Influencing Factors**: Short - term bullish sentiment and supply - contraction expectations dominate. However, demand is weak, and there is a supply surplus in the short term [18][19]. - **Investment Strategy**: Investors can pay attention to opportunities to exit long positions when the market continues to rise and consider long - position opportunities in the low - support range if there is a decline [19]. Crude Oil - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, INE crude oil oscillated upward [20]. - **Influencing Factors**: Geopolitical risks remain high, and OPEC meetings are a market focus. Fund managers have reduced their net long positions, and the number of oil and gas rigs has decreased [20][21]. - **Investment Strategy**: Investors can pay attention to long - position opportunities in the main crude oil contract [22]. Fuel Oil - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, fuel oil oscillated upward but was blocked by the 20 - day moving average [23]. - **Influencing Factors**: The Asian fuel oil market has sufficient supply, but the signing of US trade agreements is beneficial to the shipping market [23]. - **Investment Strategy**: Investors can pay attention to long - position opportunities in the main fuel oil contract [24]. Synthetic Rubber - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the synthetic rubber main contract rose and then pulled back at night [25]. - **Influencing Factors**: Raw material prices have declined, and the supply - demand situation is short - term loose [26]. - **Investment Strategy**: Wait for the market to stabilize and then participate in the rebound [27]. Natural Rubber - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, natural rubber main contracts rose and then pulled back at night [28]. - **Influencing Factors**: Supply has increased, demand is mixed, and inventories have slightly decreased [28]. - **Investment Strategy**: The market is expected to be strongly oscillating, and investors can pay attention to medium - term long - position opportunities [29]. PVC - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the PVC main contract rose [30]. - **Influencing Factors**: The supply - demand imbalance persists, but the downward space is limited. Policies have promoted the market [30]. - **Investment Strategy**: The market is expected to be strongly oscillating [32]. Urea - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the urea main contract rose [33]. - **Influencing Factors**: Supply remains high, and demand is limited. Policy and demand implementation are awaited [33]. - **Investment Strategy**: Short - term oscillation, and a bullish view in the medium term [34]. p - Xylene (PX) - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the PX2509 main contract rose [35]. - **Influencing Factors**: Supply - demand is in a tight balance, and the cost support from crude oil is insufficient. New PTA device demand provides some support [35]. - **Investment Strategy**: The market may oscillate and adjust. Investors should participate cautiously and pay attention to cost factors and macro - policies [36]. PTA - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the PTA2509 main contract rose [37]. - **Influencing Factors**: Supply - demand changes are small, and the cost support from crude oil is slightly insufficient. The market is pushed up by the "anti - involution" logic [37]. - **Investment Strategy**: The market may oscillate. Investors can participate in the range and control risks [37]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the ethylene glycol main contract rose [38]. - **Influencing Factors**: Supply pressure increases due to more restarts of coal - based plants, but inventory reduction provides some support [38]. - **Investment Strategy**: The market may continue to rise in the short term due to macro - factors. Investors should be cautious about the upside space and participate in the range [38]. Short - Fiber - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the short - fiber 2509 main contract rose [39]. - **Influencing Factors**: Supply has decreased, demand is weak, and inventory is accumulating. The "anti - involution" policy may provide some driving force [39]. - **Investment Strategy**: The market may oscillate with the cost. Investors should control risks and pay attention to cost changes and macro - policies [39]. Bottle Chips - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the bottle chips 2509 main contract rose [40]. - **Influencing Factors**: Raw material prices are oscillating, device maintenance has increased, and inventory has decreased [40]. - **Investment Strategy**: The market is expected to oscillate with the cost. Investors should control risks [40]. Soda Ash - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main 2509 contract of soda ash closed with a significant increase [41]. - **Influencing Factors**: The market is stimulated by policy expectations. Supply is at a high level, and inventory has decreased slightly. There is a new capacity release expectation at the end of 2025 [41]. - **Investment Strategy**: The market is expected to be stable and oscillating. Investors should be rational [41]. Glass - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main 2509 contract of glass closed with a large increase [42]. - **Influencing Factors**: Macro - sentiment and enterprise price increases have boosted the market. Inventory reduction has accelerated, and there is an expectation of old - capacity elimination [42][43]. - **Investment Strategy**: Pay attention to spot trading and inventory reduction in different regions. In the long - term, focus on the implementation of old - capacity elimination [43]. Caustic Soda - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main 2509 contract of caustic soda closed lower [44]. - **Influencing Factors**: Supply is relatively sufficient, and demand has some improvement. The market is affected by macro - sentiment, but the supply - demand contradiction is not significant [44][46]. - **Investment Strategy**: The market is driven by macro - sentiment. Investors should control risks [46]. Pulp - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main 2509 contract of pulp closed with an increase [47]. - **Influencing Factors**: Supply tends to expand, demand is weak, and inventory is high. The market is in a structural adjustment stage [48][49]. - **Investment Strategy**: The market is expected to oscillate. Investors should pay attention to inventory, policy, and downstream procurement sentiment [49]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the lithium carbonate main contract rose significantly [50]. - **Influencing Factors**: Supply concerns have increased, but the supply - demand pattern remains unchanged. Consumption has improved slightly, but there is high - price aversion [50]. - **Investment Strategy**: The price is expected to be high and oscillating. Pay attention to the progress of the mining end [50]. Copper - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, Shanghai copper oscillated downward [52]. - **Influencing Factors**: The US tariff implementation date is approaching, and copper concentrate shortage persists. There is an expectation of Chinese policy strengthening [53]. - **Investment Strategy**: Temporarily stay on the sidelines for the Shanghai copper main contract [54]. Tin - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, Shanghai tin oscillated [55]. - **Influencing Factors**: The mining end is tight, but there is an expectation of tin - mine复产 in the fourth quarter. Supply is still in short supply, and consumption is weak [55]. - **Investment Strategy**: The price is expected to be strongly oscillating [55]. Nickel - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, Shanghai nickel declined [56]. - **Influencing Factors**: The mining end price has weakened, stainless - steel consumption is weak, and the first - grade nickel is in surplus [56][57]. - **Investment Strategy**: The price is expected to oscillate [57]. Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the soybean meal main contract declined, and the soybean oil main contract rose [58]. - **Influencing Factors**: There is a high expectation of US soybean harvest, and domestic supply is relatively loose. Demand for soybean meal may increase slightly, and demand for soybean oil may be suppressed [58][59]. - **Investment Strategy**: Consider long - position opportunities in the support range for soybean meal after adjustment; consider call - option opportunities in the support range for soybean oil after a pullback [59]. Palm Oil - **Market Performance**: Malaysian palm oil declined. In China, palm oil inventory is high [60]. - **Influencing Factors**: Demand is weak, and there is an expectation of production increase [60]. - **Investment Strategy**: Consider long - position opportunities after a pullback [61]. Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - **Market Performance**: Canadian rapeseed has been in a low - level oscillation [62]. - **Influencing Factors**: Domestic imports of rapeseed and related products have changed. There is a conflict between bio - fuel benefits and good crop conditions [62]. - **Investment Strategy**: Consider long - position opportunities for rapeseed - related products [63]. Cotton - **Market Performance**: Domestic cotton futures oscillated at a high level, and overseas cotton declined [64]. - **Influencing Factors**: Global supply - demand is expected to be loose, and domestic production is expected to increase. Downstream inventory is accumulating [65][66]. - **Investment Strategy**: Consider short - selling far - month contracts in batches at high prices [67]. Sugar - **Market Performance**: Domestic sugar futures were strongly oscillating, and overseas raw sugar declined [68]. - **Influencing Factors**: Brazilian production is lower than expected, while Indian and Thai production is expected to be high. Domestic inventory is low, and imports are high [68][69]. - **Investment Strategy**: The market is expected to be oscillating. It is recommended to wait and see [69][70]. Apples - **Market Performance**: Domestic apple futures were strongly oscillating [71]. - **Influencing Factors**: The expectation of apple production reduction has been falsified, and production is expected to increase slightly [72]. - **Investment Strategy**: Consider short - selling opportunities at high prices [73]. Live Pigs - **Market Performance**: The national average price of live pigs remained flat [74]. - **Influencing Factors**: Supply is sufficient, and demand is weak. Summer is a consumption off - season [74][76]. - **Investment Strategy**: Hold previous short positions [76]. Eggs - **Market Performance**: The average price of eggs in the main production and sales areas remained flat [77]. - **Influencing Factors**: Egg production is increasing, and it is a consumption off - season. The supply pressure may ease in October [77][78]. - **Investment Strategy**: Consider a 9 - 10 reverse spread [78]. Corn and Corn Starch - **Market Performance**: Corn and corn - starch main contracts declined [79]. - **Influencing Factors**: US and Brazilian corn production is expected to be high. Domestic supply - demand is approaching balance, and consumption is recovering [79][80][81]. - **Investment Strategy**: Consider virtual - value call - option opportunities for the near - month corn contract in the low - level range. Corn starch follows the corn market [81]. Logs - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main 2509 contract of logs rose slightly [82]. - **Influencing Factors**: Supply has increased, inventory has slightly increased, and spot prices have slightly decreased [82][83]. - **Investment Strategy**: The market has returned to the spot reality [83].

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