Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The macro - economic recovery momentum needs to be strengthened, and the monetary policy is expected to remain loose. It is recommended to be cautious about the overall market [6]. - For different commodities, there are various investment suggestions, such as considering long positions in stock index futures, gold futures, and copper futures; being cautious about PX, PTA, short - fiber, etc.; and waiting for opportunities in some commodities like urea and cotton [9][11][57]. Summary by Commodity Categories Bonds and Stocks - **Treasury Bonds**: The previous trading day, most treasury bond futures closed down. The central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations, and the Ministry of Finance announced local government bond issuance. It is expected that there will be no trend - following market, and caution is advised [5][7]. - **Stock Index Futures**: The previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed performance. Although the domestic economic recovery momentum is weak, the long - term performance of Chinese equity assets is still optimistic, and it is considered to go long on stock index futures [9][10]. Precious Metals - **Precious Metals**: The previous trading day, gold and silver futures had small increases. Due to the complex global trade and financial environment and the trends of "de - globalization" and "de - dollarization", the long - term bull market trend of precious metals is expected to continue, and it is considered to go long on gold futures [11][12]. Base Metals - **Copper**: The previous trading day, Shanghai copper fluctuated lower. The US International Court's ruling on tariffs is beneficial to market sentiment, and it is considered to take long positions in Shanghai copper [56][57]. - **Tin**: The previous trading day, Shanghai tin fell. With the resumption of production in some mines and the increase in production costs in some regions, it is expected that the upward pressure on tin prices is large, and a bearish and volatile view is taken [58]. - **Nickel**: The previous trading day, Shanghai nickel fell. Although the cost support is strong, the downstream demand is weak, and it is necessary to pay attention to opportunities after the repair of macro - sentiment [59]. Energy - **Crude Oil**: The previous trading day, INE crude oil oscillated downward. There are concerns about oversupply in the crude oil market, and it is suitable for short - term operations. It is recommended to wait and see for the main crude oil contract [23][26]. - **Fuel Oil**: The previous trading day, fuel oil rose first and then fell. The global trade demand is recovering, but the increase in inventories in some regions is negative for prices. It is recommended to wait and see for the main fuel oil contract [27][29]. Chemicals - **PVC**: The previous trading day, the PVC main contract fell. The short - term fundamentals change little, and it is expected to continue to oscillate [35][37]. - **Urea**: The previous trading day, the urea main contract fell. The cost has decreased in the short term, and the agricultural demand has not been released. It is expected that the price will stabilize and rebound later, and it is advisable to go long at low prices [38][40]. - **PX**: The previous trading day, the PX main contract fell. The short - term supply - demand structure has weakened slightly, and it is recommended to participate cautiously [41]. - **PTA**: The previous trading day, the PTA main contract fell. The short - term supply - demand structure has improved, but the cost support is insufficient, and interval operations are considered [42][43]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal**: The previous trading day, soybean meal rose slightly, and soybean oil fell slightly. The supply of soybeans is expected to be loose, and it is recommended to wait and see for soybean meal; for soybean oil, it is possible to pay attention to out - of - the - money call options at the bottom [60][62]. - **Palm Oil**: The Malaysian palm oil closed up. The inventory is at a relatively low level in the same period in recent years. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of expanding the spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil, and soybean oil and palm oil [63][64]. - **Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil**: The previous trading day, rapeseed futures fell. The inventory of rapeseed, rapeseed meal, and rapeseed oil is at a relatively high or low level in the same period in recent years. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of going long after the callback of rapeseed meal [65][67]. - **Cotton**: The previous trading day, domestic cotton futures fell slightly. The suspension of tariffs is beneficial to short - term exports. It is recommended to go long after the callback [68][72]. - **Sugar**: The previous trading day, domestic sugar futures fell slightly. The global sugar production is expected to recover. It is recommended to conduct interval operations [73][77]. - **Apple**: The previous trading day, apple futures oscillated. The inventory in cold storage is lower than that of last year, and it is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of going long after the callback [78][79]. - **Live Pigs**: The previous trading day, the main live - pig contract rose slightly. The supply is increasing, and the demand is weak after the Dragon Boat Festival. It is recommended to consider the positive spread opportunity of the peak - season contract [80][82]. - **Eggs**: The previous trading day, the main egg contract fell. The supply of eggs is expected to increase in June, and it is recommended to go short after the rebound [83][84]. - **Corn and Starch**: The previous trading day, the corn and corn starch main contracts rose. The domestic corn supply - demand is approaching balance, and it is recommended to wait and see for corn starch [85][87]. - **Logs**: The previous trading day, the main log contract rose. The arrival of logs at ports has increased, and the market has no obvious driving force [88][89].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report analyzes various futures products, including bonds, stocks, precious metals, and commodities, and provides investment suggestions based on market trends, supply - demand relationships, and macro - economic factors. For example, it is bullish on the long - term performance of Chinese equity assets and suggests considering going long on stock index futures; it believes that the long - term bull market trend of precious metals is expected to continue and suggests considering going long on gold futures [8][9][11]. Summary by Related Catalogs Bonds - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, treasury bond futures closed down across the board. The 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year main contracts fell by 0.26%, 0.11%, 0.03%, and 0.02% respectively [5]. - **Analysis**: The current macro - economic data is stable, but the recovery momentum is still to be strengthened. The central bank carried out 448 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 91 billion yuan. The current treasury bond yield is at a relatively low level. It is recommended to remain cautious as there is still uncertainty [5]. - **Strategy**: It is expected that there will be no trend - based market, and it is advisable to remain cautious [6]. Stock Index Futures - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed results. The main contracts of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 stock index futures fell by 0.51%, 0.51%, 0.24%, and 0.10% respectively [7]. - **Analysis**: From January to April, the total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 1.4% year - on - year. As of the end of April 2025, the net asset value of public funds managed by institutions reached 33.12 trillion yuan. Although the domestic economy is stable, the recovery momentum is weak, and the market lacks confidence in corporate profits. However, Chinese equity assets are still favored in the long - term due to low valuations and economic resilience [8][9]. - **Strategy**: Be bullish on the long - term performance and consider going long on stock index futures [10]. Precious Metals - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of gold closed at 771.6, down 0.73%, and the night - session closed at 770.7; the main contract of silver closed at 8,217, down 0.76%, and the night - session closed at 8249 [11]. - **Analysis**: In April, US durable goods orders had a significant decline. The current global trade and financial environment is complex, and the "de - globalization" and "de - dollarization" trends are beneficial to the allocation and hedging value of gold [11]. - **Strategy**: The long - term bull market trend is expected to continue, and it is advisable to consider going long on gold futures [12]. Steel Products (Rebar, Hot - Rolled Coil) - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures continued to fall. The spot price of Tangshan billet was 2900 yuan/ton, the spot price of Shanghai rebar was 2960 - 3100 yuan/ton, and the price of Shanghai hot - rolled coil was 3200 - 3220 yuan/ton [13]. - **Analysis**: The real - estate industry's downward trend has not reversed, and the demand for rebar is declining with over - capacity. The peak demand season is ending, and the price support may weaken. The fundamentals of hot - rolled coils are similar to those of rebar. The current steel price valuation is low, but the futures have broken through the support level [13][14]. - **Strategy**: Investors can focus on short - selling opportunities, take profits in a timely manner, and pay attention to position management. They can participate with a light position [14][15]. Iron Ore - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, iron ore futures continued to correct. The spot price of PB powder at the port was 735 yuan/ton, and the price of Super Special powder was 610 yuan/ton [16]. - **Analysis**: The daily output of molten iron remains high, supporting the iron ore price. Although the import and domestic production of iron ore decreased in the first quarter, imports increased significantly after April. The port inventory has decreased. The valuation of iron ore is relatively high among black - series products [16]. - **Strategy**: Investors can focus on low - level buying opportunities, take profits when the price rebounds, and stop losses if the price falls below the previous low. They can participate with a light position [16][17]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures continued to fall [18]. - **Analysis**: The supply of coking coal is still abundant, and the trading atmosphere has weakened. Although the steel mills' molten iron output is high, some mills' purchasing willingness has decreased. The profit of coking enterprises has improved, but the spot price has started to decline again [18]. - **Strategy**: Investors can focus on short - selling opportunities, take profits in a timely manner, and pay attention to position management. They can participate with a light position [19][20]. Ferroalloys - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of ferromanganese silicon fell 1.23% to 5616 yuan/ton, and the main contract of ferrosilicon fell 1.73% to 5452 yuan/ton. The spot prices also declined [21]. - **Analysis**: The shipment of manganese ore from Gabon decreased, and the port inventory increased slightly. The production of rebar increased slightly, but the demand for ferroalloys is weak, and the supply is still high. The high inventory of ferroalloys exerts pressure on the market [21]. - **Strategy**: For ferromanganese silicon, consider virtual call options at low - level intervals; for ferrosilicon, short - sellers can consider exiting at the bottom, and also consider virtual call options if there are large - scale spot losses [22]. Crude Oil - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, INE crude oil fluctuated slightly, being suppressed by the 10 - day moving average [23]. - **Analysis**: The CFTC data shows that fund managers reduced their net long positions in US crude oil futures and options. The number of US oil and gas rigs decreased for the fourth consecutive week. OPEC+ is discussing a possible large - scale production increase in July [24]. - **Strategy**: The OPEC+ meeting is approaching, and there are concerns about oversupply in the crude oil market. It is suitable for short - term operations. Consider temporarily observing the main contract [25][26]. Fuel Oil - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, fuel oil fluctuated downward, breaking through the moving - average group. The Asian ultra - low - sulfur fuel - oil market eased, while the high - sulfur fuel - oil market continued to rise. The crack spread in the Asian fuel - oil market decreased [27]. - **Analysis**: The tariff friction is gradually being resolved, and global trade demand is recovering, which is positive for fuel - oil prices. However, the inventory in the ARA region has increased, which is negative for prices [28]. - **Strategy**: Consider short - selling the main contract of fuel oil [29]. Synthetic Rubber - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of synthetic rubber rose 0.60%. The mainstream price in Shandong remained stable at 11,800 yuan/ton, and the basis narrowed [30]. - **Analysis**: The supply pressure persists, the demand improvement is limited, and the cost has declined. The processing loss of synthetic rubber has increased, the production capacity utilization rate is high, the demand from tire enterprises is weak, and the inventory has increased [30]. - **Strategy**: It is expected to fluctuate [31]. Natural Rubber - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of natural rubber rose 0.87%, and the main contract of 20 - grade rubber rose 2.60%. The Shanghai spot price remained stable at 14,350 yuan/ton, and the basis narrowed [32]. - **Analysis**: The market is still worried about the future, and the domestic inventory has increased against the season. The supply is affected by rain, and the demand from tire enterprises may decline slightly. The social inventory is relatively high [32]. - **Strategy**: It is expected to fluctuate [34]. PVC - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of PVC fell 1.58%, and the spot price decreased by 70 - 80 yuan/ton. The basis remained stable [35]. - **Analysis**: The short - term fundamentals have not changed much, mainly following the macro - sentiment. The supply is increasing, the export demand is good, but the domestic demand is weak. The production capacity utilization rate has increased, and the inventory has decreased [35][36]. - **Strategy**: It is expected to continue to fluctuate [37]. Urea - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of urea fell 0.17%. The price in Shandong Linyi decreased to 1850 yuan/ton, and the basis remained stable [38]. - **Analysis**: The short - term cost has decreased, and the agricultural demand has not been released intensively. However, exports will be an incremental demand in the second half of the year, and the agricultural demand will start later. The domestic daily production is expected to remain at around 200,000 tons, and the inventory has increased [38][39]. - **Strategy**: If the price continues to fall, investors can consider going long. Pay attention to policy changes and the spread between domestic and foreign markets [38][40]. PX - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of PX2509 rose by 0.06%. The PXN spread was adjusted to 260 US dollars/ton, and the PX - MX spread was 100 US dollars/ton [41]. - **Analysis**: The restart of maintenance devices and the delay of planned maintenance have increased the PX load to 78%. The import volume in April decreased. The international crude oil price is fluctuating, and attention should be paid to the OPEC meeting [41]. - **Strategy**: In the short term, the crude oil price fluctuates, and the supply - demand structure weakens slightly. It is advisable to participate cautiously, pay attention to the change in crude oil prices and macro - policies, and control risks [41]. PTA - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of PTA2509 fell by 0.17%. The spot price in East China was 4913 yuan/ton, and the basis rate was 3.85% [42]. - **Analysis**: The restart of some devices has increased the PTA load to 77.1%. Some polyester devices have been overhauled, and the terminal orders have decreased. The cost support is insufficient [42]. - **Strategy**: In the short term, the supply - demand structure of PTA has improved, and the inventory has decreased, but the cost support is weak. It is advisable to operate within a range and control risks [42]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of ethylene glycol fell by 0.5% [43]. - **Analysis**: The restart and maintenance of ethylene - glycol devices are concurrent, and the overall operating load is 58.25%. The port inventory has decreased, and the planned arrival volume is also decreasing. The downstream polyester operating rate has decreased, but the demand has improved slightly [43]. - **Strategy**: In the short term, the supply of ethylene glycol has decreased, the port arrival volume has decreased, and the demand has improved, but the cost lacks driving force. It is expected to fluctuate. Pay attention to port inventory and macro - policy changes [43]. Short - Fiber - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of short - fiber 2506 fell by 0.31% [44]. - **Analysis**: The operating load of short - fiber devices has increased to 96.2%. The downstream terminal demand has improved slightly, but the cost support is insufficient. The processing fee is being compressed, and there may be production cuts in the future [44]. - **Strategy**: In the short term, it will fluctuate following the cost. It is advisable to participate cautiously and control risks [44]. Bottle Chips - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of bottle chips 2506 rose by 0.1% [45]. - **Analysis**: The supply of polyester bottle - chip devices has increased to 84.3%, and the growth space may be limited. The downstream soft - drink consumption has continued to recover. The raw - material price is fluctuating, and the cost support has weakened [45][46]. - **Strategy**: In the future, it is expected to follow the cost. It is advisable to participate cautiously and pay attention to raw - material price changes [46]. Soda Ash - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main contract 2509 closed at 1231 yuan/ton, down 2.30% [47]. - **Analysis**: New production capacity has been put into operation, and the industry's operating load has increased. The inventory has decreased slightly, but the new orders are poor, and some manufacturers have lowered their prices [47]. - **Strategy**: In the long - term, the oversupply situation of soda ash is difficult to reverse, and the downstream demand is weak. The price is expected to fluctuate steadily [47]. Glass - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main contract 2509 closed at 1031 yuan/ton, up 1.18% [48]. - **Analysis**: Some production lines have resumed production, but the overall number of production lines has not changed much. The actual supply - demand situation has no obvious driving force, and the market price in North China has been low [48][49]. - **Strategy**: The market sentiment is weak, and the actual supply - demand contradiction is not prominent [50]. Caustic Soda - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main contract 2509 closed at 2449 yuan/ton, down 1.17% [51]. - **Analysis**: Some devices are under maintenance, and the production has increased slightly. The inventory is at a neutral level. The demand for caustic soda is mainly for rigid needs, and the supply is still relatively loose. There are regional differences [51]. - **Strategy**: Pay attention to the operation of enterprise devices and the price fluctuation of liquid chlorine [51]. Pulp - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main contract 2507 closed at 5274 yuan/ton, down 2.77% [52]. - **Analysis**: A foreign pulp factory is preparing for annual maintenance. The domestic inventory has decreased slightly, and the downstream operating rate has fluctuated. The consumption is weak, and the market is in a wait - and - see state [52][53]. - **Strategy**: The domestic supply is high, and the international supply is abundant. The price may rebound in the short - term due to tariff progress. Pay attention to the actual production cuts of international pulp mills and domestic consumption - stimulation policies [53]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of lithium carbonate rose by 0.86% to 60,920 yuan/ton [54]. - **Analysis**: Sino - US trade has made positive progress, but the mine price has decreased, and the production rate has increased. The supply is increasing, and the demand is weakening during the traditional off - season. The inventory is increasing, and the oversupply situation remains unchanged [54]. - **Strategy**: Before the large - scale clearance of mine production capacity, the price is difficult to reverse [54]. Copper - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, Shanghai copper fluctuated upward, closing above the moving average. The spot price decreased, and the premium also decreased [55]. - **Analysis**: Sino - US tariffs are affecting the real economy, and the US refined - copper inventory is increasing. There is still uncertainty about copper tariffs, and the price may fall after rising [56]. - **Strategy**: Consider short - selling the main contract of Shanghai copper [57]. Tin - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, Shanghai tin fell by 0.4% to 264,290 yuan/ton [58]. - **Analysis**: A tin mine in Congo (Kinshasa) is resuming production, and the复产 expectation in Myanmar is increasing. The domestic processing fee is low, and the raw - material inventory of smelters is shrinking. The downstream production is good, and the inventory is decreasing. There is a game between the current shortage and the expected supply increase [58]. - **Strategy**: The price is expected to face upward pressure and fluctuate downward [58]. Nickel - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, Shanghai nickel fell by 0.18% to 122,300 yuan/ton [59]. - **Analysis**: Sino - US trade negotiations have made new progress, and the macro - sentiment has improved. The supply of nickel ore is expected to tighten, and the cost support is strong, but the downstream nickel - iron plants are suffering losses. The demand

2025 年 5 月 27 日星期二 地址： 电话： 重庆市江北区金沙门路 32 号 23 层； 023-67070250 上海市浦东新区向城路 288 号 1101A； 021-61101856 1 市场有风险 投资需谨慎 | | | | 铜： | | 16 | | --- | --- | --- | | 锡： | | 16 | | 镍： | | 17 | | 豆油、豆粕： | | 17 | | 棕榈油： | | 18 | | 菜粕、菜油： | | 19 | | 棉花： | | 19 | | 白糖： | | 20 | | 苹果： | | 21 | | 生猪： | | 22 | | 鸡蛋： | | 22 | | 玉米&淀粉： | | 23 | | 原木： | | 24 | | 免责声明 | | 25 | 国债： 上一交易日，国债期货收盘多数上涨，30 年期主力合约涨 0.13%报 119.760 元， 10 年期主力合约持平于 108.855 元，5 年期主力合约涨 0.01%报 106.060 元，2 年期主 力合约涨 0.03%报 102.430 元。 公开市场方面，央行公告称，5 月 26 日以固定利率 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - For Treasury bonds, it is expected that there will be no trending market, and caution should be maintained [6][7]. - For stock index futures, the long - term performance of Chinese equity assets is optimistic, and considering going long on stock index futures [9][10]. - For precious metals, the long - term bull market trend of precious metals is expected to continue, and considering going long on gold futures [11][12]. - For rebar and hot - rolled coils, investors can focus on shorting opportunities on rebounds, and light - position participation is recommended [14][15]. - For iron ore, investors can focus on buying opportunities at low levels, and light - position participation is recommended [16][17]. - For coking coal and coke, investors can focus on shorting opportunities on rebounds, and light - position participation is recommended [19][20]. - For ferroalloys, for manganese silicon, consider virtual call options at low levels; for silicon iron, short - sellers can consider exiting at the bottom, and also consider virtual call options at low levels if there are large - scale spot losses [22]. - For crude oil, it is recommended to temporarily wait and see [24][25]. - For fuel oil, consider going long on the main contract [27][28]. - For synthetic rubber, it is expected to oscillate [29][30]. - For natural rubber, it is expected to oscillate [31][32]. - For PVC, it is expected to continue oscillating [33][35]. - For urea, it is expected to oscillate strongly [36][37]. - For p - xylene (PX), short - term caution is recommended, and pay attention to changes in crude oil prices and macro - policies [38]. - For PTA, consider range - bound operations and control risks [39]. - For ethylene glycol, it is expected to oscillate and adjust, and be cautious about the upside space [40]. - For short - fiber, it is expected to oscillate and adjust following the cost side, and be cautious when participating [41]. - For bottle chips, it is expected to follow the cost side, and be cautious about cost price changes [42]. - For soda ash, it is expected to oscillate steadily [43][44]. - For glass, the market sentiment is weak, and the actual supply - demand contradiction is not prominent [45][46]. - For caustic soda, the overall supply - demand is still relatively loose, and pay attention to the operation of enterprise equipment and the fluctuation of liquid chlorine prices [47][48]. - For pulp, it is expected to rebound in the short - term, and pay attention to whether international pulp mills start substantial production cuts and the implementation rhythm of domestic consumption stimulus policies [49]. - For lithium carbonate, the supply - demand surplus situation has not changed significantly, and the price is difficult to reverse before the large - scale clearance of mine capacity [50][51]. - For copper, consider going long on the main contract of Shanghai copper [52][53]. - For tin, it is expected to oscillate weakly [54][55]. - For nickel, pay attention to opportunities after the repair of macro - sentiment [56]. - For soybean oil and soybean meal, consider the opportunity to widen the spread between rapeseed oil - palm oil and soybean oil - palm oil [57][58]. - For palm oil, consider the opportunity to go long on rapeseed meal after a pullback [58][59]. - For rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil, for soybean meal, wait and see; for soybean oil, consider virtual call options at the bottom support range [60][61]. - For cotton, wait for a pullback and then go long at low levels [62][65]. - For sugar, conduct range - bound operations [66][69]. - For apples, pay attention to the opportunity to go long after a pullback [70][71]. - For live pigs, consider temporarily waiting and seeing [73][74]. - For eggs, consider shorting on rebounds [75][76]. - For corn and starch, temporarily wait and see [77][79]. - For logs, the market has no obvious driving force, and the spot transaction price is weak [80][81]. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Treasury Bonds - On the previous trading day, Treasury bond futures closed up across the board. The central bank conducted 142.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 36 billion yuan. The State Council executive meeting discussed relevant policies. The current macro - economic recovery momentum needs to be strengthened, and the Treasury bond yield is at a relatively low level. It is recommended to maintain caution [5][6][7]. Stock Index Futures - On the previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed performance. From January to April 2025, the number of newly - established foreign - invested enterprises increased, but the actual use of foreign capital decreased. The domestic economic recovery momentum is not strong, but the long - term performance of Chinese equity assets is optimistic, and considering going long on stock index futures [8][9][10]. Precious Metals - On the previous trading day, the gold and silver futures had different performances. Trump threatened to impose tariffs on EU and mobile phone products. The global trade and financial environment is complex, and it is recommended to go long on gold futures [11][12]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils - On the previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures oscillated weakly. The real - estate industry's decline has not reversed, and the demand for rebar is decreasing. The price may decline further, but the downside space is limited. Investors can short on rebounds [13][14][15]. Iron Ore - On the previous trading day, iron ore futures oscillated. The high demand and reduced supply support the price. The valuation is relatively high, and it is in an oscillating pattern. Investors can buy at low levels [16][17]. Coking Coal and Coke - On the previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures continued to decline. The supply of coking coal is loose, and the demand for coke is weak. The price may continue to fall, and investors can short on rebounds [18][19][20]. Ferroalloys - On the previous trading day, manganese silicon and silicon iron futures declined. The supply of manganese ore may be disturbed, and the demand for ferroalloys is weak. For manganese silicon, consider virtual call options; for silicon iron, short - sellers can consider exiting [21][22]. Crude Oil - On the previous trading day, INE crude oil oscillated slightly. Fund managers reduced their net long positions, the number of oil and gas rigs decreased, and OPEC + may increase production. The oil market may be oversupplied, and it is recommended to wait and see [23][24][25]. Fuel Oil - On the previous trading day, fuel oil oscillated slightly. The global trade demand is recovering, and the Singapore inventory has increased. It is recommended to go long on the main contract [26][27][28]. Synthetic Rubber - On the previous trading day, synthetic rubber futures declined. The supply pressure persists, but the demand and cost have improved. It is expected to oscillate [29][30]. Natural Rubber - On the previous trading day, natural rubber futures declined. The supply may increase, and the demand may improve. It is expected to oscillate [31][32]. PVC - On the previous trading day, PVC futures declined. The supply is increasing, and the demand for exports is good. It is expected to continue oscillating [33][35]. Urea - On the previous trading day, urea futures declined. The export policy has changed, and the agricultural demand is about to start. It is expected to oscillate strongly [36][37]. PX - On the previous trading day, PX futures declined. The supply has increased, and the cost support has weakened. Short - term caution is recommended [38]. PTA - On the previous trading day, PTA futures declined. The supply has increased, and the demand has decreased. The cost support is insufficient. Consider range - bound operations [39]. Ethylene Glycol - On the previous trading day, ethylene glycol futures declined. The supply has decreased, the inventory has decreased slightly, and the demand has improved. It is expected to oscillate and adjust [40]. Short - Fiber - On the previous trading day, short - fiber futures declined. The supply has increased, the demand has slightly improved, and the cost support is insufficient. It is expected to oscillate and adjust following the cost side [41]. Bottle Chips - On the previous trading day, bottle - chip futures declined. The cost support has weakened, the supply has increased, and the demand has improved. It is expected to follow the cost side [42]. Soda Ash - On the previous trading day, soda ash futures declined. Some devices are under maintenance, but the new device is about to be put into production. The demand is stable. It is expected to oscillate steadily [43][44]. Glass - On the previous trading day, glass futures declined. The production line has decreased, and the actual supply - demand has no obvious driving force. The market sentiment is weak [45][46]. Caustic Soda - On the previous trading day, caustic soda futures declined. Some devices are under maintenance, the supply is relatively loose, and the demand is limited. Pay attention to the operation of equipment and the price of liquid chlorine [47][48]. Pulp - On the previous trading day, pulp futures rose. The inventory has decreased slightly, the downstream demand is weak, and the price is under pressure. It is expected to rebound in the short - term [49]. Lithium Carbonate - On the previous trading day, lithium carbonate futures declined. The supply is increasing, the demand is weakening, and the supply - demand surplus situation has not changed significantly [50][51]. Copper - On the previous trading day, Shanghai copper oscillated slightly. The Sino - US tariff affects the real economy, and the support policy is being implemented. It is recommended to go long on the main contract [52][53]. Tin - On the previous trading day, Shanghai tin declined. Some mines are resuming production, the supply may increase, and the demand is good. It is expected to oscillate weakly [54][55]. Nickel - On the previous trading day, Shanghai nickel declined. The Sino - US trade negotiation has made progress, the cost support is strong, but the demand is weak. Pay attention to opportunities after the repair of macro - sentiment [56]. Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - The Malaysian palm oil production may increase, and the domestic palm oil inventory is at a relatively low level. Consider the opportunity to widen the spread between rapeseed oil - palm oil and soybean oil - palm oil [57][58]. Palm Oil - The Canadian rapeseed futures are oscillating. The domestic import of rapeseed oil has increased, and the inventory is at a high or low level. Consider the opportunity to go long on rapeseed meal after a pullback [58][59]. Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - On the previous trading day, soybean meal and soybean oil futures rose. The US - EU trade friction may intensify, and the domestic soybean supply is abundant. For soybean meal, wait and see; for soybean oil, consider virtual call options at the bottom support range [60][61]. Cotton - On the previous trading day, domestic cotton futures oscillated. The Sino - US tariff suspension is beneficial to cotton exports. The US cotton planting rate and production are expected to change. Wait for a pullback and then go long at low levels [62][65]. Sugar - On the previous trading day, domestic sugar futures oscillated weakly. The Brazilian sugar production may increase, and the domestic inventory is at a low level. Conduct range - bound operations [66][69]. Apples - On the previous trading day, apple futures oscillated. Some apple - producing areas may have reduced production, and the inventory is lower than last year. Pay attention to the opportunity to go long after a pullback [70][71]. Live Pigs - The national average price of live pigs has changed slightly. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand support is weak. Consider temporarily waiting and seeing [72][73][74]. Eggs - On the previous trading day, the egg price declined. The egg - laying hen inventory is increasing, and the supply is sufficient. Consider shorting on rebounds [75][76]. Corn and Starch - On the previous trading day, corn and corn starch futures rose. The US - EU tariff threat affects the US corn price. The domestic corn supply is under pressure, and the demand is stable. Temporarily wait and see [77][79]. Logs - On the previous trading day, log futures declined. The expected arrival of logs has increased, the demand is weak, and the price is running weakly [80][81].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The macro - economic recovery momentum needs strengthening, and the monetary policy is expected to remain loose. For treasury bonds, it's expected that there will be no trend - like market, so caution is advised [6][7]. - Although the domestic economic recovery momentum is weak, the long - term performance of Chinese equity assets is still promising. Considering going long on stock index futures [10][11]. - The long - term bull market trend of precious metals is expected to continue. It's advisable to consider going long on gold futures [13][14]. - For steel products such as rebar and hot - rolled coil, investors can focus on shorting opportunities during rebounds. For iron ore, focus on buying opportunities at low levels. For coking coal and coke, focus on shorting opportunities during rebounds [15][17][19]. - For iron alloys, consider call option opportunities for ferromanganese silicon at low levels and short - covering opportunities for ferrosilicon at the bottom [21][22]. - For crude oil and fuel oil, consider short - side operations [24][25][27]. - Synthetic rubber is expected to oscillate, natural rubber to oscillate weakly, PVC to continue oscillating, urea to fluctuate narrowly, PX to be treated with caution, PTA to be operated within a range, ethylene glycol to oscillate and be treated with caution regarding the upside, short - fiber to oscillate following the cost, bottle - chip to follow the cost, soda ash to oscillate steadily, glass to have a short - term sentiment repair, caustic soda to focus on device operation and liquid chlorine price fluctuations, pulp to have a short - term rebound and then pay attention to supply and demand policies, and lithium carbonate to control risks and wait for upstream large - scale production cuts [28][30][32][35][37][39][40][42][43][44][46][47][49][51]. - For copper, consider short - term shorting. For tin, expect a bearish oscillation. For nickel, pay attention to opportunities after the repair of macro - sentiment. For industrial silicon and polysilicon, maintain a bearish view [53][56][57][59]. - For soybean oil and soybean meal, be on the sidelines for soybean meal and consider call option opportunities for soybean oil at the bottom. For palm oil, consider expanding the spread between rapeseed - palm oil and soybean - palm oil. For rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil, consider going long on rapeseed meal after a pull - back. For cotton, wait to go long after a pull - back. For sugar, operate within a range. For apples, focus on going long opportunities after a pull - back. For live pigs, temporarily stay on the sidelines. For eggs, consider shorting after a rebound. For corn and starch, stay on the sidelines. For logs, the market has no obvious driving force [61][64][66][70][75][79][81][83][86][88]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Treasury Bonds - On the previous trading day, most treasury bond futures closed flat. The central bank conducted 154.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 90 billion yuan. Nearly 100 institutions have issued over 250 billion yuan of science and technology innovation bonds [5]. - The macro - economic recovery momentum is weak, and the monetary policy is expected to be loose. The treasury bond yield is at a relatively low level. It's advisable to be cautious [6]. Stock Index Futures - On the previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed performance. The domestic economic recovery momentum is weak, but the long - term performance of Chinese equity assets is promising. Considering going long on stock index futures [8][10][11]. Precious Metals - On the previous trading day, gold and silver futures rose. The US and euro - zone PMI data were released. The long - term bull market trend of precious metals is expected to continue. Consider going long on gold futures [12][13][14]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - On the previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures oscillated weakly. The real - estate downturn suppresses prices, but the peak - season demand may provide short - term support. The valuation is low, and the downward space may be limited. Consider shorting during rebounds [15]. Iron Ore - On the previous trading day, iron ore futures oscillated. The high demand and reduced supply support the price. The valuation is relatively high. Consider buying at low levels [17]. Coking Coal and Coke - On the previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures continued to decline. The supply of coking coal is loose, and the demand for coke is weak. Consider shorting during rebounds [19]. Iron Alloys - On the previous trading day, ferromanganese silicon and ferrosilicon futures rose. The supply of manganese ore may be disturbed, and the demand for iron alloys is weak. Consider call option opportunities for ferromanganese silicon at low levels and short - covering opportunities for ferrosilicon at the bottom [21][22]. Crude Oil - On the previous trading day, INE crude oil dropped significantly due to the possible OPEC+ production increase. The supply - demand imbalance and tariff - induced consumption decline may negatively affect oil prices. Consider short - side operations [23][24][25]. Fuel Oil - On the previous trading day, fuel oil dropped following crude oil. The summer power - generation demand may boost the price, but the decline in crude oil prices will drive it down. Consider short - side operations [26][27]. Synthetic Rubber - On the previous trading day, synthetic rubber futures fell. The supply pressure persists, but the demand and cost factors may lead to short - term strength with limited upside. It's expected to oscillate [28][29]. Natural Rubber - On the previous trading day, natural rubber futures fell. The supply may increase, and the demand may improve. It's expected to oscillate weakly [30][31]. PVC - On the previous trading day, PVC futures fell. The supply is increasing, and the demand for exports is good. It's expected to continue oscillating [32][34]. Urea - On the previous trading day, urea futures fell. The market is affected by export news and policy intervention. It's expected to fluctuate narrowly [35][36]. PX - On the previous trading day, PX futures fell. The supply - demand and cost factors are in a game. It's advisable to be cautious [37]. PTA - On the previous trading day, PTA futures fell. The supply - demand structure has improved, but the cost support is insufficient. Consider range - bound operations [38][39]. Ethylene Glycol - On the previous trading day, ethylene glycol futures fell. The supply has decreased, the inventory is decreasing, and the demand has improved, but the cost lacks drive. It's expected to oscillate and be treated with caution regarding the upside [40]. Short - Fiber - On the previous trading day, short - fiber futures fell. The downstream demand has slightly improved, but the cost support is insufficient. It's expected to oscillate following the cost [41][42]. Bottle - Chip - On the previous trading day, bottle - chip futures fell. The raw material price is oscillating, and the supply - demand fundamentals have improved. It's expected to follow the cost [43]. Soda Ash - On the previous trading day, soda ash futures rose. The short - term supply has decreased, but the long - term supply - demand imbalance persists. It's expected to oscillate steadily [44][45]. Glass - On the previous trading day, glass futures rose. The actual supply - demand has no obvious driving force. The short - term market sentiment may be repaired [46]. Caustic Soda - On the previous trading day, caustic soda futures fell slightly. The production has decreased, the inventory is at a neutral level, and the demand is limited. Pay attention to device operation and liquid chlorine price fluctuations [47][48]. Pulp - On the previous trading day, pulp futures fell. The inventory is accumulating, the downstream demand is weak, and the supply is abundant. It may have a short - term rebound, and then pay attention to supply and demand policies [49][50]. Lithium Carbonate - On the previous trading day, lithium carbonate futures rose. The supply is increasing, the demand is weakening, and the inventory is accumulating. Control risks and wait for upstream large - scale production cuts [51][52]. Copper - On the previous trading day, Shanghai copper oscillated slightly. The Sino - US tariff affects the real economy, and copper may face a correction. Consider short - term shorting [53][54]. Tin - On the previous trading day, Shanghai tin fell. The supply may increase, and the demand may improve. It's expected to have a bearish oscillation [55][56]. Nickel - On the previous trading day, Shanghai nickel rose. The cost support is strong, but the demand is weak. Pay attention to opportunities after the repair of macro - sentiment [57]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - On the previous trading day, industrial silicon futures fell slightly, and polysilicon futures rose. The demand is weak, and the supply reduction is limited. Maintain a bearish view [58][59]. Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - On the previous trading day, soybean meal futures rose, and soybean oil futures fell. The supply of soybeans is expected to be abundant. Be on the sidelines for soybean meal and consider call option opportunities for soybean oil at the bottom [60][61]. Palm Oil - On the previous trading day, palm oil futures fell. The inventory is accumulating, and the demand is weak. Consider expanding the spread between rapeseed - palm oil and soybean - palm oil [62][64]. Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - On the previous trading day, rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil futures showed different performances. The import situation has changed, and the inventory is at different levels. Consider going long on rapeseed meal after a pull - back [65][66]. Cotton - On the previous trading day, domestic cotton futures oscillated. The Sino - US tariff suspension may be beneficial, and the weather affects the growth. Wait to go long after a pull - back [67][70]. Sugar - On the previous trading day, domestic sugar futures oscillated weakly. The Brazilian production is expected to increase, and the domestic inventory is low. Operate within a range [71][74][75]. Apples - On the previous trading day, domestic apple futures fell slightly. The production is uncertain, and the inventory is decreasing. Focus on going long opportunities after a pull - back [76][78][79]. Live Pigs - On the previous trading day, live pig futures fell. The supply is increasing, and the demand is weak. Temporarily stay on the sidelines [80][81]. Eggs - On the previous trading day, egg futures fell. The supply is increasing, and the demand may be supported during the festival. Consider shorting after a rebound [82][83]. Corn and Starch - On the previous trading day, corn futures rose, and corn starch futures fell slightly. The supply pressure exists, and the demand is weak. Temporarily stay on the sidelines [84][86]. Logs - On the previous trading day, log futures fell slightly. The supply is increasing, and the demand is weak. The market has no obvious driving force [87][88].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The macro - economic recovery momentum needs strengthening, and different investment strategies are recommended for various commodities based on their specific fundamentals and market conditions [5][8][10] Summary by Related Catalogs Treasury Bonds - Last trading day, futures closed with mixed results: 30 - year down 0.08%, 10 - year flat, 5 - year up 0.03%, 2 - year up 0.02%. The central bank conducted 157 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net injection of 65 billion yuan. It's expected that there will be no trend - based market, and caution is advised [5][6] Stock Index Futures - Last trading day, futures showed mixed performance. The eight - department joint measures support small - and - micro - enterprise financing. Despite weak recovery momentum, China's equity assets are still favored in the long - term, and going long on stock index futures is considered [7][8][9] Precious Metals - Last trading day, gold rose 3.23% and silver 2.45%. Given the complex global trade and financial environment, the long - term bull market trend of precious metals is expected to continue, and going long on gold futures is considered [10][11] Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - Last trading day, futures showed weak oscillations. The real - estate downturn suppresses rebar prices, but peak - season demand may provide short - term support. Investors can look for opportunities to short on rebounds, with light positions [12][13] Iron Ore - Last trading day, futures rebounded slightly. High iron - water production supports demand, and supply pressure has eased. Investors can look for opportunities to buy at low levels, with light positions [14][15] Coking Coal and Coke - Last trading day, futures oscillated. Coking coal supply is loose, and coke prices may resume downward adjustment. Investors can look for opportunities to short on rebounds, with light positions [16][17] Ferroalloys - Last trading day, manganese - silicon and silicon - iron futures declined. Manganese - ore supply may be disrupted, and investors can consider out - of - the - money call options for manganese - silicon; for silicon - iron, short - sellers can consider exiting at the bottom [17][18] Crude Oil - Last trading day, INE crude oil rose. OPEC + production increase and potential consumption decline due to tariffs are concerns. Short - selling the main contract is considered [19][20][21] Fuel Oil - Last trading day, fuel oil rose. Although trade demand has recovered, short - selling the main contract is considered [22][23] Synthetic Rubber - Last trading day, futures fell 1.94%. Supply pressure persists, but demand and cost factors suggest short - term strength with limited upside [24][25] Natural Rubber - Last trading day, futures declined. Supply may increase, and demand may improve. A weak - oscillation trend is expected [26][27] PVC - Last trading day, futures rose 0.32%. Supply is increasing, and demand for exports is good, but the upside is limited [28][29][30] Urea - Last trading day, futures rose 0.22%. Policy adjustments and upcoming agricultural demand may lead to a strong - oscillation trend [31][32] PX - Last trading day, the PX2509 contract rose 1.17%. Short - term caution is needed due to crude - oil price fluctuations and supply - demand changes [33] PTA - Last trading day, the PTA2509 contract rose 1.14%. Supply - demand structure has improved, but cost support is insufficient. Interval trading is considered [34] Ethylene Glycol - Last trading day, futures fell 0.23%. Supply has decreased, and demand has improved, but cost factors limit the upside. Oscillation adjustment is expected [35][36] Short - Fiber - Last trading day, the 2506 contract rose 0.37%. Terminal demand has slightly recovered, but cost support is weak. Follow - up cost - based oscillation is expected [37] Bottle Chips - Last trading day, the 2506 contract rose 0.36%. Raw - material prices are oscillating, and supply - demand fundamentals have improved. Follow - up cost - based operation is expected [38][39] Soda Ash - Last trading day, the 2509 contract rose 0.47%. Short - term supply has decreased, but long - term oversupply persists. A stable - oscillation trend is expected [40] Glass - Last trading day, the 2509 contract rose 0.98%. There is no obvious driving force in the market, and short - term sentiment may recover [41][43] Caustic Soda - Last trading day, the 2509 contract fell 1.33%. Production has decreased, and demand is limited. Attention should be paid to enterprise operations and liquid - chlorine prices [44] Pulp - Last trading day, the 2507 contract rose 0.59%. Supply is abundant, and demand is weak. A short - term rebound is expected, but long - term factors need attention [45][46][47] Lithium Carbonate - Last trading day, futures rose 0.59%. Supply is increasing, and demand is weakening. Risk control is recommended in the short - term [48] Copper - Last trading day, Shanghai copper rose. After a significant increase, there is a callback pressure. Short - selling the main contract is considered [49][50] Tin - Last trading day, Shanghai tin fell. Supply is expected to increase, and demand is uncertain. A bearish - oscillation trend is expected [51] Nickel - Last trading day, Shanghai nickel rose. Cost support is strong, but demand is weak. Attention should be paid to macro - sentiment recovery [52] Industrial Silicon/Polysilicon - Last trading day, industrial - silicon futures fell, and polysilicon futures rose. Supply - demand contradictions persist, and a bearish view is maintained [53] Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - Last trading day, soybean - meal futures rose 1.91%, and soybean - oil futures rose 0.23%. Supply is expected to be abundant, and different strategies are recommended for each [54][55][56] Palm Oil - Malaysian palm oil fell. Domestic imports have decreased, and inventory is low. Considering expanding the soybean - palm oil price spread [57][58][59] Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - Canadian rapeseed futures showed mixed results. Chinese imports and inventories have changed. Buying rapeseed meal after a correction is considered [60][61] Cotton - Last trading day, domestic cotton oscillated. Tariff suspension may benefit exports. Buying on dips is considered [62][63][65] Sugar - Last trading day, domestic sugar oscillated weakly. Brazilian production is low, and domestic inventory is low. Interval trading is recommended [66][68][69] Apples - Last trading day, apple futures had little change. Some regions may have reduced production, and inventory is low. Buying after a correction is considered [71][72][73] Hogs - Yesterday, the national average hog price fell. Supply is increasing, and demand is weak. Temporary observation is recommended [74][75] Eggs - Last trading day, the average egg price was flat. Supply is increasing, and selling on rebounds is considered [76][77] Corn and Starch - Last trading day, corn futures rose 0.09%, and starch futures fell 0.15%. Supply pressure exists in the short - term, and temporary observation is recommended [78][79] Logs - Last trading day, the 2507 contract was flat. Supply is increasing, and demand is weak. The market has no obvious driving force [80][81]

Economic Resilience and Recovery - In April, the manufacturing PMI dropped to 49.0%, a decrease of 1.5 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a contraction in manufacturing activity[4] - The non-manufacturing business activity index was at 50.4%, down 0.4 percentage points, but still indicates expansion[7] - April's consumer price index (CPI) fell by 0.1% year-on-year, reflecting weak domestic demand[8] - The producer price index (PPI) decreased by 2.7% year-on-year, indicating continued price pressure in the industrial sector[11] Trade and Investment Trends - Exports in April grew by 8.1% year-on-year, although the growth rate declined by 4.3 percentage points from the previous month; imports fell by 0.2%[14] - The total social financing scale increased by 16.34 trillion yuan in the first four months, with RMB loans to the real economy rising by 9.78 trillion yuan[19] - Fixed asset investment from January to April was 147,024 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 4.0%[30] Real Estate Market Dynamics - Real estate development investment in the first four months was 27,730 billion yuan, down 10.3% year-on-year, but the decline is narrowing[27] - New housing sales area decreased by 2.8% year-on-year, but the sales volume is showing signs of stabilization[29] - The inventory of unsold commercial housing slightly decreased, indicating potential for recovery in the real estate market[34] Overall Economic Outlook - The macroeconomic environment shows resilience but lacks strong upward momentum, necessitating increased policy support to boost market confidence[3] - Despite challenges, the overall trend for 2025 is expected to be upward, with patience required for recovery[38]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The macro - economic data in April showed a two - sided nature. The domestic economy demonstrated strong resilience under tariff shocks, with high - speed consumption growth and better - than - expected exports. However, the recovery momentum needed to be strengthened, as indicated by the decline in manufacturing PMI, low price indices, and low real - estate new construction and investment growth rates. The overall macro - economic situation was bottom - supported but lacked upward momentum, and macro - policies were required to enhance market confidence. Despite the setbacks, the macro - economy and asset prices in 2025 were expected to continue the upward - repair trend [3][36][38]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Manufacturing PMI Significantly Declined under Tariff Shocks - In April, the manufacturing PMI was 49.0%, a 1.5 - percentage - point decrease from the previous month. The PMIs of large, medium, and small enterprises were all below the critical point and declined compared to the previous month. Among the 5 classification indices of manufacturing PMI, the supplier delivery time index was above the critical point, while the production, new order, raw material inventory, and employee indices were below it [4]. - The non - manufacturing business activity index in April was 50.4%, a 0.4 - percentage - point decrease from the previous month but still above the critical point. The construction and service industries also declined. With the reduction of Sino - US tariff rates, the manufacturing PMI in May was likely to rise [7]. 2. CPI and PPI Continued to Be Weak in April - In April 2025, the national CPI decreased by 0.1% year - on - year and increased by 0.1% month - on - month. The CPI was weak due to insufficient domestic demand. The PPI decreased by 2.7% year - on - year and 0.4% month - on - month. The decline in coal and crude oil prices in April dragged down the PPI, reflecting weak domestic demand and relative over - capacity in corresponding industries [8][9][11]. 3. Exports Increased by 8.1% Year - on - Year in April, while Imports Decreased by 0.2% - In April, exports increased by 8.1% year - on - year, with a 4.3 - percentage - point decline in growth rate compared to the previous month. Imports decreased by 0.2% year - on - year, with the decline significantly narrowing by 4.1 percentage points compared to the previous month. The trade surplus was $96.18 billion, a decrease of $6.46 billion from the previous month. Exports to the US decreased by 21% year - on - year. Despite the impact of tariffs, the high export growth rate might be related to "entrepot trade" and "rush - to - export" by enterprises. With the reduction of Sino - US tariffs, exports were expected to maintain high growth in the next few months [14][16]. 4. The Credit Structure in April Was Weak, while M1 and M2 Were in an Improving Trend - In the first four months of 2025, the cumulative increase in social financing scale was 16.34 trillion yuan, 3.61 trillion yuan more than the same period last year. The credit structure was weak, as the confidence and credit demand of residents and enterprises were weakened by tariffs, but the significant increase in government bond issuance offset the decline in credit demand. M1 and M2 were in an upward trend overall [19][24]. 5. Industrial Production Was Stable, and Consumption Growth Remained High - In April, the added value of large - scale industries increased by 6.1% year - on - year and 0.22% month - on - month. The total retail sales of consumer goods in April were 3.7174 trillion yuan, a 5.1% year - on - year increase. The consumption growth rate remained high due to consumption - promotion policies, but the sales of automobiles and petroleum products dragged down the growth [25]. 6. Real - Estate Sales Adopted a Strategy of Trading Price for Volume and Had a Foundation for Stabilization - From January to April, the sales area of new commercial housing decreased by 2.8% year - on - year, and the sales volume decreased by 3.2% year - on - year, with the decline rates narrowing. The real - estate development investment decreased by 10.3% year - on - year. The real - estate market was expected to further narrow the decline in sales area and volume year - on - year. After the "policy bottom" in September 2024, the "market bottom" of this real - estate downward cycle was emerging, and the overall drag of real estate on the macro - economy would significantly narrow [27][31][35]. 7. Summary and Outlook - The macro - economic data in April showed two - sided characteristics. The domestic economy was resilient but lacked recovery momentum. The overall macro - economy was bottom - supported but lacked upward momentum. The domestic market had sufficient policy space to hedge against external demand decline through stimulating domestic demand. The macro - economy and asset prices in 2025 were expected to continue the upward - repair trend [36][38].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - The macro - economic recovery momentum needs to be strengthened, and monetary policy is expected to remain loose. It is recommended to be cautious about treasury bonds, optimistic about the long - term performance of Chinese equity assets, and consider going long on stock index futures. The long - term bullish trend of precious metals is expected to continue, and it is advisable to consider going long on gold futures. For various commodities, different investment strategies are proposed based on their respective fundamentals and market conditions [6][10][12] Summary by Directory Treasury Bonds - On the previous trading day, most treasury bond futures closed down. The central bank conducted 357 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 177 billion yuan. The 5 - month LPR was lowered by 10bp. It is expected that there will be no trend - based market, and caution should be maintained [5][7] Stock Index Futures - On the previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed performance. Although the domestic economic recovery momentum is not strong and market confidence in corporate profits is lacking, considering the low valuation of domestic assets and China's economic resilience, it is still optimistic about the long - term performance of Chinese equity assets, and it is advisable to consider going long on stock index futures [8][10][11] Precious Metals - On the previous trading day, gold and silver futures closed down. China's gold imports reached a new high in 11 months last month. Due to the complex global trade and financial environment and the trends of "de - globalization" and "de - dollarization", the long - term bullish trend of precious metals is expected to continue, and it is advisable to consider going long on gold futures [12][13] Steel Products (Rebar, Hot - Rolled Coil) - On the previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures declined slightly. The real - estate industry's downward trend has not reversed, suppressing rebar prices, but the peak - season demand may provide short - term support. The valuation of steel prices is low, and the market is in a weak - oscillation pattern. Investors can focus on short - selling opportunities on rebounds and pay attention to position management [14][15] Iron Ore - On the previous trading day, iron ore futures fluctuated. The high iron - water production supports the demand for iron ore, and the supply pressure has been relieved. The port inventory has decreased. The valuation level has declined, and the futures rebounded after being supported at the previous low. Investors can focus on buying opportunities at low levels and pay attention to position management [16][17] Coking Coal and Coke - On the previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures fell significantly. The supply of coking coal is loose, and the trading atmosphere has weakened. For coke, although the steel - mill iron - water production is high, some steel mills' purchasing willingness has decreased. The futures may continue to decline in the short term. Investors can focus on short - selling opportunities on rebounds and pay attention to position management [18][19][20] Ferroalloys - On the previous trading day, manganese - silicon and silicon - iron futures declined. The supply of manganese ore may be disturbed, and the demand for ferroalloys is weak while the supply is relatively high. High - level inventories put pressure on the market. For manganese - silicon, investors can consider out - of - the - money call options; for silicon - iron, short - sellers can consider exiting at the bottom [21][22] Crude Oil - On the previous trading day, INE crude oil fluctuated slightly. OPEC +'s crude - oil production increase continues, and there are concerns about oversupply. However, geopolitical risks may push up oil prices. It is advisable to consider long - position operations on the main crude - oil contract [23][24][25] Fuel Oil - On the previous trading day, fuel oil fluctuated upwards. The inventory in the ARA region and Singapore has decreased, and the global trade demand has recovered. It is advisable to temporarily observe the main fuel - oil contract [26][27] PX - On the previous trading day, the PX2509 main contract declined. The PX load has decreased, and the import volume has declined. The short - term crude - oil price fluctuates, and the PX valuation is being repaired. It is advisable to participate cautiously and pay attention to the cost - end crude - oil changes and macro - policy adjustments [27] PTA - On the previous trading day, the PTA2509 main contract declined. The PTA load has increased, and the polyester load has also increased. The cost support is insufficient. It is advisable to conduct range - bound operations and pay attention to risk control [28] Ethylene Glycol - On the previous trading day, the ethylene - glycol main contract declined. The supply has decreased, the port inventory may continue to decline slightly, and the demand has improved. However, the cost lacks driving force. It is expected to fluctuate and adjust, and attention should be paid to port inventory and macro - policy changes [29][30] Short - Fiber - On the previous trading day, the short - fiber 2506 main contract declined. The short - fiber device load is at a relatively high level, the downstream demand has slightly improved, but the cost support is insufficient. It is advisable to participate cautiously and pay attention to risk control [31] Bottle Chips - On the previous trading day, the bottle - chip 2506 main contract declined. The raw - material cost support still exists, the supply load has increased, and the downstream demand has recovered. It is expected to follow the cost - end operation, and attention should be paid to cost - price changes [32][33] Soda Ash - On the previous trading day, the main 2509 contract of soda ash closed down. Multiple device overhauls have led to a reduction in supply, but the long - term oversupply situation is difficult to alleviate. The price may continue to fluctuate steadily [34] Glass - On the previous trading day, the main 2509 contract of glass closed up. The actual supply - demand fundamentals have no obvious driving force. The market sentiment may be repaired in the short term, but the actual repair degree needs to be considered [35][37] Caustic Soda - On the previous trading day, the main 2509 contract of caustic soda closed down. The production has decreased, the inventory has increased, and the demand is limited. The price of alumina may support the price of caustic soda. Attention should be paid to the operation of enterprise devices and the fluctuation of liquid - chlorine prices [38] Pulp - On the previous trading day, the main 2507 contract of pulp closed up. The tariff negotiation has achieved results, giving the pulp market some confidence, but the supply is abundant, and the downstream demand is weak. The inventory has increased. It is expected that the market will rebound in the short term, and attention should be paid to the production - reduction actions of international pulp mills and the implementation of domestic consumption - stimulation policies [39][40][41] Lithium Carbonate - Recently, lithium - carbonate prices have continuously hit new lows. The supply may increase, and the demand may weaken. The current supply - demand surplus situation has not changed significantly. It is advisable to control risks in the short term, and the price rebound needs the support of large - scale upstream production reduction [42][43] Copper - On the previous trading day, Shanghai copper fluctuated downwards. The impact of Sino - US tariffs on the real economy and the callback pressure after the sharp rise of Shanghai copper are factors to consider. It is advisable to conduct short - position operations on the main Shanghai - copper contract [44][45] Tin - On the previous trading day, Shanghai tin rose. The supply may increase in the future, but the current consumption data is good, and the inventory is decreasing. The contradiction between the current shortage and the loose expectation exists, and the upward pressure on the tin price is relatively large. It is advisable to take a short - position view [46] Nickel - On the previous trading day, Shanghai nickel rose. The cost support is strong, but the downstream loss has increased, and the demand may weaken. The supply - demand surplus situation may continue. Attention should be paid to the opportunities after the repair of macro - sentiment [47] Industrial Silicon/Polysilicon - On the previous trading day, the industrial - silicon and polysilicon main contracts declined. The demand in the industrial chain is weak, the supply reduction is limited, and the cost support has weakened. The price fluctuation has intensified. It is recommended to maintain a short - position view and pay attention to the start - up changes in the southwest region during the wet season [48] Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - On the previous trading day, the soybean - meal main contract declined, and the soybean - oil main contract rose. The supply of soybeans may be abundant in the future. It is advisable to observe the soybean - meal main contract, and for soybean oil, out - of - the - money call options can be considered at the bottom - support range [49][50] Palm Oil - Malaysian palm oil rose for the second consecutive day. The export volume has increased, and the domestic inventory is at a relatively low level. It is advisable to consider the opportunity to widen the spread between soybean oil and palm oil [51][53] Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - Canadian rapeseed rose. The domestic inventory of rapeseed has decreased, and the inventory of rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil is at a relatively high level. It is advisable to consider the opportunity to go long on rapeseed meal after a callback [54][55] Cotton - On the previous trading day, domestic Zhengzhou cotton fluctuated. The suspension of Sino - US tariff increases is beneficial to cotton. The global cotton supply - demand situation and domestic planting conditions need to be considered. It is advisable to wait for a callback and then go long [56][57][58] Sugar - On the previous trading day, domestic Zhengzhou sugar fluctuated weakly. The Brazilian sugar production may increase, and the domestic inventory is low. It is expected to fluctuate within a range, and range - bound operations are advisable [59][60][61] Apples - On the previous trading day, domestic apple futures had little fluctuation. The production in some areas may decrease, and the inventory is at a relatively low level. It is advisable to pay attention to the opportunity to go long after a callback [62][63][64] Pigs - The national average price of pigs declined slightly. The supply may increase, and the demand is weak. It is advisable to temporarily observe [65][66] Eggs - The average price of eggs in the main production and sales areas declined. The egg - laying hen inventory is at a relatively high level, and the supply may increase. It is advisable to go short after a rebound [67][69] Corn and Corn Starch - On the previous trading day, the corn and corn - starch main contracts declined. The domestic corn supply - demand is approaching balance, but there is short - term supply pressure. Corn starch has weak production and demand. It is advisable to temporarily observe [70][71][72] Logs - On the previous trading day, the main 2507 contract of logs closed down. The expected arrival volume has increased, but the demand is weak, and the price is running weakly. The market has no obvious driving force [73][74]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - For Treasury bonds, it is expected that there will be no trend - like market, and caution is advised [6][7]. - For stock index futures, the long - term performance of Chinese equity assets is optimistic, and considering going long on stock index futures is recommended [8][9]. - For precious metals, the long - term bull market trend of precious metals is expected to continue, and considering going long on gold futures is advised [11][12]. - For steel products (including rebar, hot - rolled coil), investors can focus on short - selling opportunities on rebounds, and participate with a light position [13]. - For iron ore, investors can focus on buying opportunities at low levels, and participate with a light position [14][15]. - For coking coal and coke, investors can focus on short - selling opportunities on rebounds, and participate with a light position [16][17]. - For ferroalloys, for manganese silicon, consider virtual call option opportunities at low levels; for silicon iron, short - sellers can consider exiting at the bottom range, and also consider virtual call option opportunities at low levels if there are large - scale spot losses [18][19]. - For crude oil, it is recommended to temporarily wait and see for the main contract [20][21][22]. - For fuel oil, it is recommended to temporarily wait and see for the main contract [23][24][25]. - For PX, it is recommended to participate cautiously, pay attention to the changes in crude oil at the cost end and macro - policy adjustments [26]. - For PTA, it is recommended to conduct range trading and control risks [27][28]. - For ethylene glycol, it is expected to fluctuate and adjust, and caution is needed for the upside space, paying attention to port inventory and macro - policy changes [29]. - For staple fiber, it is recommended to participate cautiously and control risks [30][31]. - For bottle chips, it is recommended to participate cautiously and pay attention to cost price changes [32]. - For soda ash, the price is expected to continue to fluctuate steadily [33][34]. - For glass, it is expected that the market sentiment will be repaired to some extent in the short term, but the actual repair degree remains to be seen [35]. - For caustic soda, it is necessary to focus on the operation of enterprise equipment and the price fluctuation of liquid chlorine [36][37]. - For pulp, it is expected that the market will rebound in the short term, and it is necessary to pay attention to whether international pulp mills initiate substantial production cuts and the implementation rhythm of domestic consumption - stimulating policies [39][40]. - For lithium carbonate, it is expected to run weakly [41]. - For copper, it is recommended to temporarily wait and see for the main contract [42][43]. - For tin, it is expected that the price will face greater pressure above, and a bearish and fluctuating view is taken [44]. - For nickel, pay attention to opportunities after the repair of macro - sentiment [45]. - For industrial silicon/polysilicon, it is recommended to focus on the start - up changes in the southwestern region during the wet season, and maintain a bearish judgment overall [46][47][48]. - For soybean oil and soybean meal, for soybean meal, it is recommended to wait and see; for soybean oil, consider virtual call option opportunities at the bottom support range [49][50]. - For palm oil, consider the opportunity to widen the soybean - palm oil spread [51][52]. - For rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil, consider the opportunity to go long after the callback of rapeseed meal [53][54]. - For cotton, wait to go long at low levels after the callback [55][56][58]. - For sugar, conduct range - trading operations [61][62][63]. - For apples, focus on the opportunity to go long after the callback [64][65][66]. - For live pigs, it is recommended to temporarily wait and see [67][68]. - For eggs, consider short - selling at high levels after the rebound [69][70]. - For corn and starch, it is recommended to temporarily wait and see [71][72]. - For logs, the market has no obvious driving force, and the spot transaction price runs lightly, with weak support for the futures price [73][74]. Summaries According to the Catalog Chemical Products - **Ethylene Glycol**: The previous trading day's main contract fell 0.31%. Supply decreased, port arrivals decreased, inventory decreased slightly, and demand improved, but the lack of cost drivers suppressed the upside space. It is expected to fluctuate and adjust in the short term [29]. - **Staple Fiber**: The previous trading day's 2506 main contract fell 0.58%. The supply load was at a relatively high level, the downstream terminal demand improved slightly, but the cost support was insufficient. It is expected to fluctuate and adjust following the cost end in the short term [30][31]. - **Bottle Chips**: The previous trading day's 2506 main contract fell 0.61%. The raw material cost support remained, the supply load increased, and the downstream demand improved. It is expected to follow the cost end in the future [32]. - **Soda Ash**: The previous trading day's 2509 main contract closed at 1284 yuan/ton, down 1.91%. In the short term, supply decreased due to device maintenance, but in the long - term, the oversupply situation was difficult to alleviate. The price is expected to continue to fluctuate steadily [33][34]. - **Glass**: The previous trading day's 2509 main contract closed at 1018 yuan/ton, up 0.20%. There was no obvious driving force in the actual supply - demand fundamentals. It is expected that the market sentiment will be repaired to some extent in the short term [35]. - **Caustic Soda**: The previous trading day's 2509 main contract closed at 2586 yuan/ton, up 1.77%. Production decreased due to device maintenance, and the demand for alumina increased. It is necessary to focus on the operation of enterprise equipment and the price fluctuation of liquid chlorine [36][37]. - **Pulp**: The previous trading day's 2507 main contract closed at 5390 yuan/ton, up 0.52%. The supply was abundant, the downstream consumption was weak, and it is expected that the market will rebound in the short term [39][40]. - **PTA**: The previous trading day's 2509 main contract fell 0.5%. The supply - demand structure improved, the inventory decreased, but the cost support was insufficient. It is recommended to conduct range trading [27][28]. - **PX**: The previous trading day's 2509 main contract fell 0.3%. The PXN spread continued to repair, the supply load decreased, and it is recommended to participate cautiously [26]. Metals - **Carbonate Lithium**: The previous trading day's main contract closed down 2.27% to 61180 yuan/ton. The supply increased, the demand weakened, and the inventory continued to accumulate. It is expected to run weakly [41]. - **Copper**: The previous trading day's Shanghai copper fluctuated slightly, and the price adjusted in the high - level range. It is recommended to temporarily wait and see for the main contract [42][43]. - **Tin**: The previous trading day's Shanghai tin rose 0.15% to 264390 yuan/ton. There was a game between the current shortage pattern and the loose expectation. It is expected that the price will face greater pressure above [44]. - **Nickel**: The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel fell 0.31% to 123520 yuan/ton. The cost support was strong, but the demand was weak. Pay attention to opportunities after the repair of macro - sentiment [45]. - **Industrial Silicon/Polysilicon**: The previous trading day's industrial silicon main contract closed at 8130 yuan/ton, down 1.87%; the polysilicon main contract closed at 37150 yuan/ton, up 0.51%. The demand was weak, the supply reduction was limited, and it is recommended to focus on the start - up changes in the southwestern region during the wet season [46][47][48]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal**: The previous trading day's soybean meal main contract fell 0.55% to 2886 yuan/ton, and the soybean oil main contract rose 0.31% to 7776 yuan/ton. The supply of soybeans was expected to be loose, the upward pressure on soybean meal was high, and for soybean oil, consider virtual call option opportunities at the bottom support range [49][50]. - **Palm Oil**: The Malaysian palm oil closed higher. The domestic inventory was accumulating. Consider the opportunity to widen the soybean - palm oil spread [51][52]. - **Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil**: The German winter rapeseed planting area increased. The domestic rapeseed inventory decreased, the rapeseed meal inventory increased, and the rapeseed oil inventory decreased. Consider the opportunity to go long after the callback of rapeseed meal [53][54]. - **Cotton**: The previous trading day's domestic Zhengzhou cotton fluctuated. The Sino - US tariff suspension was beneficial to cotton. Wait to go long at low levels after the callback [55][56][58]. - **Sugar**: The previous trading day's domestic Zhengzhou sugar fluctuated. The Brazilian production was low but was expected to increase. The domestic inventory was low and the import volume was low. Conduct range - trading operations [61][62][63]. - **Apples**: The previous trading day's domestic apple futures fluctuated little. The inventory was at a low level in recent years. Focus on the opportunity to go long after the callback [64][65][66]. - **Live Pigs**: The previous trading day's national average price of live pigs was 14.5 yuan/kg, down 0.01. The supply was expected to increase, and the demand was weak. It is recommended to temporarily wait and see [67][68]. - **Eggs**: The previous trading day's main - producing area egg average price was 3.13 yuan/jin, down 0.10; the main - selling area egg average price was 3.26 yuan/jin, down 0.10. The supply was expected to increase, and consider short - selling at high levels after the rebound [69][70]. - **Corn and Starch**: The previous trading day's corn main contract fell 0.55% to 2330 yuan/ton; the corn starch main contract fell 0.78% to 2669 yuan/ton. The supply pressure was still there in the short term, and it is recommended to temporarily wait and see [71][72]. - **Logs**: The previous trading day's 2507 main contract closed at 783.0 yuan/ton, down 0.19%. The supply was expected to increase, the demand was weak, and the price was running weakly [73][74]. Others - **Treasury Bonds**: The previous trading day, treasury bond futures closed up across the board. The macro - economic recovery momentum needed to be strengthened, and it is expected that there will be no trend - like market, with caution advised [5][6][7]. - **Stock Index Futures**: The previous trading day, stock index futures rose and fell differently. The long - term performance of Chinese equity assets is optimistic, and considering going long on stock index futures is recommended [8][9]. - **Precious Metals**: The previous trading day, the gold main contract rose 0.54%, and the silver main contract rose 0.40%. The long - term bull market trend of precious metals is expected to continue, and considering going long on gold futures is advised [10][11][12]. - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: The previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures fell slightly. The demand for rebar was weak, but there was short - term support in the peak season. Investors can focus on short - selling opportunities on rebounds [13]. - **Iron Ore**: The previous trading day, iron ore futures fell slightly. The supply - demand pattern improved, and investors can focus on buying opportunities at low levels [14][15]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures fell significantly. The supply was loose, and the demand was weak. Investors can focus on short - selling opportunities on rebounds [16][17]. - **Ferroalloys**: The previous trading day, the manganese silicon main contract fell 0.24%, and the silicon iron main contract fell 0.45%. The demand was weak, and different strategies are recommended for manganese silicon and silicon iron [18][19]. - **Crude Oil**: The previous trading day, INE crude oil fluctuated slightly. The supply was expected to increase, and the price pressure was high. It is recommended to temporarily wait and see for the main contract [20][21][22]. - **Fuel Oil**: The previous trading day, fuel oil fluctuated slightly. The inventory decreased, and the demand recovered. It is recommended to temporarily wait and see for the main contract [23][24][25].