2025 年 12 月 4 日星期四 重庆市江北区金沙门路 32 号 23 层； 023-63638617 上海市浦东新区世纪大道 210 号 10 楼 1001； 地址： 电话： 1 市场有风险 投资需谨慎 | | | | 铅： | | 15 | | --- | --- | --- | | 锡： | | 15 | | 镍： | | 16 | | 豆油、豆粕： | | 16 | | 棕榈油： | | 17 | | 菜粕、菜油： | | 18 | | 棉花： | | 18 | | 白糖： | | 19 | | 苹果： | | 20 | | 生猪： | | 21 | | 鸡蛋： | | 21 | | 玉米&淀粉： | | 22 | | 免责声明 | | 24 | 国债： 上一交易日，国债期货收盘多数上涨，30 年期主力合约跌 0.26%报 113.610 元， 10 年期主力合约涨 0.06%报 108.040 元，5 年期主力合约涨 0.07%报 105.850 元，2 年 期主力合约涨 0.03%报 102.420 元。 公开市场方面，央行公告称，12 月 3 日以固定利率、数量招标方式开展了 793 亿 元 ...

2025 年 12 月 3 日星期三 重庆市江北区金沙门路 32 号 23 层； 023-63638617 上海市浦东新区世纪大道 210 号 10 楼 1001； 1 市场有风险 投资需谨慎 地址： 电话： | | | | 铅： | | 15 | | --- | --- | --- | | 锡： | | 15 | | 镍： | | 16 | | 豆油、豆粕： | | 16 | | 棕榈油： | | 17 | | 菜粕、菜油： | | 17 | | 棉花： | | 18 | | 白糖： | | 19 | | 苹果： | | 20 | | 生猪： | | 20 | | 鸡蛋： | | 21 | | 玉米&淀粉： | | 22 | | 免责声明 | | 23 | 国债： 上一交易日，国债期货收盘全线下跌，30 年期主力合约跌 0.51%报 113.890 元， 10 年期主力合约跌 0.07%报 107.980 元，5 年期主力合约跌 0.06%报 105.770 元，2 年 期主力合约跌 0.02%报 102.388 元。 公开市场方面，央行公告称，12 月 2 日以固定利率、数量招标方式开展了 1563 亿 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - **Treasury Bonds**: Expected to face some pressure, maintain a cautious stance [6][7] - **Stock Index Futures**: Expected that the volatility center will gradually move up, consider going long at an appropriate time [9][10] - **Precious Metals**: Expected to continue the upward trend, temporarily observe and wait for opportunities to go long [11][12] - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils**: Rebar prices may remain weak in the medium term, and hot - rolled coils may follow a similar trend. Look for opportunities to go short at high levels during rebounds [13] - **Iron Ore**: The supply - demand pattern is weak. Look for opportunities to go short at high levels [15] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Look for opportunities to go long at low levels [18] - **Ferroalloys**: Consider long positions at low levels after the spot loss widens [21] - **Crude Oil**: Focus on opportunities to go long [24] - **Fuel Oil**: Focus on opportunities to go long [27] - **Polyolefins**: Focus on opportunities to go long [29] - **Synthetic Rubber**: Expected to oscillate [32] - **Natural Rubber**: Consider opportunities to go long [34] - **PVC**: Focus on supply - side changes [38] - **Urea**: The downside space is limited [39] - **Para - Xylene (PX)**: May oscillate and adjust in the short term, control positions and pay attention to crude oil and macro - policy changes [40] - **PTA**: May oscillate in the short term, be cautious and pay attention to oil price changes [41] - **Ethylene Glycol**: May face pressure in the short term, pay attention to port inventory and supply changes [42] - **Short - Fiber**: May oscillate following costs in the short term, control risks and pay attention to cost and macro - policy changes [44] - **Bottle Chips**: Expected to oscillate following the cost side, control risks [45] - **Lithium Carbonate**: Pay attention to consumption sustainability and mine restart progress [46] - **Copper**: May run strongly in the short term, beware of callback risks after hitting new highs [48][49] - **Aluminum**: In a phase of adjustment in the short term, the price has resilience in the medium - long term [50][51][52] - **Zinc**: Likely to continue the range - bound oscillation pattern [53][54] - **Lead**: Likely to run weakly [55][56] - **Tin**: May oscillate strongly [58] - **Nickel**: May oscillate [59] - **Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal**: Consider long positions in the low - cost support range [61] - **Palm Oil**: Consider going long on pullbacks [63] - **Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil**: Consider a long - biased approach for rapeseed oil [66] - **Cotton**: The upside space is expected to be limited [69] - **Sugar**: May oscillate [74] - **Apples**: Expected to run strongly [75][76] - **Pigs**: Consider holding the remaining short positions temporarily [79] - **Eggs**: Consider temporary observation [81] - **Corn and Starch**: It is advisable to observe and wait for the release of supply pressure after transportation recovers. Corn starch may follow the corn market [83][84] 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Treasury Bonds - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, most treasury bond futures closed higher, with the 30 - year contract down 0.08% at 114.370 yuan, and others rising [5] - **Policy and Macroeconomy**: The central bank conducted 107.6 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on December 1st, with a net withdrawal of 231.1 billion yuan. The macro - economic recovery momentum needs to be strengthened, and the monetary policy is expected to remain loose [5][6] Stock Index Futures - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed results [8] - **Policy and Market**: The CSRC is promoting the pilot of commercial real - estate investment trust funds (REITs). The domestic economic recovery momentum is weak, but asset valuations are low, and market sentiment has warmed up [8][9] Precious Metals - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, gold and silver futures rose, with gold up 0.98% and silver up 4.33% [11] - **Market Factors**: The complex global trade and financial environment, central bank gold - buying, and the expected Fed rate cuts are favorable for precious metals [11] Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures rebounded slightly. Spot prices are at certain levels [13] - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: Rebar demand is declining year - on - year, and the market is entering the off - season. Supply capacity is in surplus, and inventory pressure is high. Hot - rolled coils have a similar situation [13] Iron Ore - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, iron ore futures rose slightly [15] - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: Since October, iron ore supply has increased year - on - year, and demand has declined. Port inventory has exceeded last year's level [15] Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures rebounded significantly [17] - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: Coking coal supply is increasing, and demand is weakening. Coke supply is stable, but demand may decline due to potential steel - mill production cuts [18] Ferroalloys - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, manganese - silicon and silicon - iron futures rose [20] - **Supply - Demand and Cost**: Manganese ore supply has recovered, and the cost of ferroalloys is rising. Production is declining, and demand is weak, but the overall surplus is easing [20][21] Crude Oil - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, INE crude oil oscillated upward [22] - **Market News**: OPEC's suspension of production increase boosts market confidence. There are also news about Russia - US negotiations and the increase in US oil and gas rigs [22][23] Fuel Oil - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, fuel oil oscillated upward and stood above the 5 - day moving average [25] - **Market Factors**: The deepening of the Asian fuel oil spot discount and the slow progress of the US 28 - point plan are favorable for fuel oil prices [26] Polyolefins - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the PP market in Hangzhou and the LLDPE market in Yuyao showed certain price movements [28] - **Market Analysis**: The average operating rate of domestic polypropylene downstream industries has increased. Different PP product industries show different trends [28] Synthetic Rubber - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, synthetic rubber futures fell 1.01% [30] - **Supply - Demand and Market**: Raw material prices are under pressure, supply is relatively loose, and demand from tire enterprises is weak [30][31] Natural Rubber - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, natural rubber futures fell [33] - **Supply - Demand and Market**: Supply is affected by weather and high overseas raw material prices. Demand is affected by enterprise maintenance, and inventory is slightly increasing [33] PVC - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, PVC futures rose 0.11% [35] - **Supply - Demand and Cost**: Supply is increasing, demand shows different trends in different industries, and costs are affected by raw material prices. The overall supply - demand pattern is still oversupplied [35] Urea - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, urea futures fell 0.18% [38] - **Supply - Demand and Cost**: Supply is increasing, demand from downstream products shows different trends, and costs and profits are affected by coal prices [38] Para - Xylene (PX) - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, PX futures rose 2.21% [40] - **Supply - Demand and Market**: PX supply is slightly decreasing, and the PXN spread is relatively strong. Attention should be paid to crude oil and macro - policy changes [40] PTA - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, PTA2601 futures rose 1.93% [41] - **Supply - Demand and Cost**: Supply is increasing, demand from polyester is relatively stable, and processing fees are declining. It may oscillate in the short term [41] Ethylene Glycol - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, ethylene glycol futures rose 0.28% [42] - **Supply - Demand and Market**: Supply is increasing, inventory is rising, and demand from downstream polyester is slightly decreasing [42] Short - Fiber - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, short - fiber futures rose 1.42% [43] - **Supply - Demand and Market**: Supply is at a relatively high level, demand changes little, and it may oscillate following costs [43][44] Bottle Chips - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, bottle - chip futures rose 1.23% [45] - **Supply - Demand and Market**: Supply is at a certain level, export is increasing, and it may oscillate following the cost side [45] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, lithium carbonate futures rose 0.56% [46] - **Supply - Demand and Market**: Supply is at a high level, consumption in the energy - storage and power - battery sectors is improving, and inventory is decreasing [46] Copper - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, Shanghai copper futures rose 0.62% [47] - **Supply - Demand and Market**: The supply of copper ore is growing slowly, and demand is affected by high prices and substitution. The price may be supported in the short term but is restricted by consumption [48] Aluminum - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, Shanghai aluminum and alumina futures rose [50] - **Supply - Demand and Market**: The supply of domestic bauxite is tight, but imports are increasing. Supply and demand are in a state of oversupply, and the price may adjust in the short term [50] Zinc - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, Shanghai zinc futures rose 0.98% [53] - **Supply - Demand and Market**: Zinc concentrate supply is tight, demand is in the off - season, and the price may oscillate in a range [53] Lead - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, Shanghai lead futures rose 0.64% [55] - **Supply - Demand and Market**: The supply of lead concentrate is slightly easing, demand from the battery market is weak, and the price may run weakly [55] Tin - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, tin futures fell 0.27% [57] - **Supply - Demand and Market**: Supply is tight, and demand shows some resilience. The price may oscillate strongly [57][58] Nickel - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, nickel futures rose 0.26% [59] - **Supply - Demand and Market**: Nickel ore prices are stable, demand from the stainless - steel market is weak, and the price may oscillate [59] Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, soybean meal futures fell 0.36%, and soybean oil futures rose 0.61% [60] - **Supply - Demand and Market**: Brazilian soybean planting is slightly slower, and domestic supply is relatively loose. Demand for soybean meal is growing moderately, and demand for soybean oil is slightly improving [60][61] Palm Oil - **Market Performance**: Malaysian palm oil futures fell [62] - **Supply - Demand and Market**: Indonesian production concerns are alleviated, and exports are declining. Domestic imports are increasing, and inventory is accumulating [62] Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - **Market Performance**: Rapeseed futures fell [64] - **Supply - Demand and Market**: Attention is focused on the Canadian crop report. Domestic imports show different trends, and inventory is in a state of destocking [64][65] Cotton - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, domestic cotton futures rebounded, and overseas cotton futures fell slightly [67] - **Supply - Demand and Market**: The USDA has raised the global and US cotton production and inventory forecasts. Domestic production is high, and demand is weak [67][68] Sugar - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, Zhengzhou sugar futures oscillated, and overseas raw - sugar futures fell 3% [70] - **Supply - Demand and Market**: Brazilian sugar production has exceeded expectations, and domestic production and imports are increasing, putting pressure on sugar prices [70][73] Apples - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, domestic apple futures oscillated [75] - **Supply - Demand and Market**: Inventory is decreasing, and new - season production and quality are declining, so the price is expected to be strong [75] Pigs - **Market Performance**: The national average pig price rose on the previous day [77] - **Supply - Demand and Market**: Supply is affected by enterprise sales and farmers' sentiment, and demand is affected by pickling. Attention should be paid to changes in sales and slaughter in December [77][78] Eggs - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the average egg price in the main production and sales areas rose [80] - **Supply - Demand and Market**: Egg production is at a high level, and demand may increase seasonally. The price may be affected by supply and demand changes [80] Corn and Starch - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, corn and corn starch futures fell [82] - **Supply - Demand and Market**: North - port corn arrivals are affected by transportation, and demand shows certain trends. Corn starch supply is increasing, and inventory is at a high level [82][83]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Overall Market Outlook**: The current domestic economy remains stable, but the recovery momentum of the macro - economy still needs to be strengthened. The market sentiment has significantly improved, and incremental funds are continuously entering the market. Different asset classes have different trends and investment opportunities due to various factors such as supply - demand relationships, macro - policies, and international situations [6][9]. - **Asset - Specific Views**: - **Treasury Bonds**: There is still some pressure, and a cautious attitude is recommended [6][7]. - **Stock Index Futures**: The volatility center is expected to gradually move up, and investors can choose the right time to go long [9][10]. - **Precious Metals**: They are expected to continue the upward trend. Investors can wait and see for now and look for opportunities to go long [11][12]. - **Steel Products (Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil)**: The medium - term weakness of rebar prices is difficult to change, and hot - rolled coil may follow the same trend. Investors can focus on short - selling opportunities at high levels during rebounds [13]. - **Iron Ore**: The supply - demand pattern is weak, and the futures may face resistance in rebounding. Investors can focus on short - selling opportunities at high levels [16]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Investors can focus on buying opportunities at low levels [18]. - **Ferroalloys**: After a decline, investors can consider long - position opportunities at low levels when the spot loss expands [21]. - **Crude Oil**: The main contract presents buying opportunities [24]. - **Fuel Oil**: The main contract presents buying opportunities [26]. - **Polyolefins**: Present buying opportunities [28]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: Expected to fluctuate [30]. - **Natural Rubber**: Investors can focus on buying opportunities [32]. - **PVC**: Pay attention to changes in the supply side [34]. - **Urea**: The downward space is limited [36]. - **PX**: May fluctuate and adjust in the short term. Control positions and be vigilant about crude oil changes [38]. - **PTA**: May fluctuate in the short term. Be cautious and pay attention to oil price changes [39]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: May be under pressure in the short term. Pay attention to port inventory and supply changes [42]. - **Short - Fiber**: May fluctuate with costs in the short term. Control risks and pay attention to cost changes and macro - policy adjustments [43]. - **Bottle Chips**: Expected to fluctuate with the cost side [44]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Pay attention to consumption continuity and mine restart progress [46]. - **Copper**: May run strongly in the short term. Pay attention to whether it can effectively break through the oscillation range [47][48]. - **Aluminum**: In a short - term adjustment state, but has long - term resilience [50][51]. - **Zinc**: Likely to continue the range - bound pattern [52][53]. - **Lead**: May weakly fluctuate [54]. - **Tin**: May fluctuate strongly [55]. - **Nickel**: May fluctuate [56]. - **Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal**: Investors can focus on long - position opportunities in the low - cost support range [58]. - **Palm Oil**: Consider buying on pullbacks [61]. - **Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil**: A bullish approach can be considered for rapeseed oil [63]. - **Cotton**: The price is expected to be weak, and the upside space is limited [66][67]. - **Sugar**: Will fluctuate [71]. - **Apples**: Expected to run strongly [72][73]. - **Hogs**: Consider holding the remaining short positions after partial profit - taking of previous short positions [74]. - **Eggs**: Consider waiting and seeing for now [77]. - **Corn and Corn Starch**: It is advisable to wait and see and wait for the release of supply pressure after transportation recovers. Corn starch may follow the corn market [80]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Treasury Bonds - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the closing performance of treasury bond futures was divided. The 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year main contracts had different price changes. The central bank conducted 3013 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 737 billion yuan on the day [5]. - **Macro - economic Situation**: In November, the manufacturing PMI increased by 0.2 percentage points, the non - manufacturing business activity index decreased by 0.6 percentage points, and the comprehensive PMI output index decreased by 0.3 percentage points. The overall economic prosperity level was stable [5]. - **Outlook**: There is still some pressure, and a cautious attitude is recommended [6][7]. Stock Index Futures - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed trends. The main contracts of different stock index futures had different price changes [8]. - **Policy News**: Many regions are researching and planning policies to support the sale of completed properties, aiming to increase the proportion of completed property sales [8]. - **Outlook**: The volatility center is expected to gradually move up, and investors can choose the right time to go long [9][10]. Precious Metals - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main contracts of gold and silver had price increases, and there were also price changes in the night session [11]. - **Supporting Factors**: The complex global trade and financial environment, the trend of "de - globalization" and "de - dollarization", central bank gold - buying behavior, and the expected continuous interest rate cuts by the Fed are all favorable for precious metals [11]. - **Outlook**: They are expected to continue the upward trend. Investors can wait and see for now and look for opportunities to go long [11][12]. Steel Products (Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil) - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures rebounded slightly. The spot prices of different steel products are provided [13]. - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: On the demand side, the long - term downward trend of the real estate industry has not reversed, and the market will enter the off - season. On the supply side, over - capacity persists, and rebar production has decreased slightly. The inventory is higher than last year, and the inventory pressure is obvious [13]. - **Outlook**: The medium - term weakness of rebar prices is difficult to change, and hot - rolled coil may follow the same trend. Investors can focus on short - selling opportunities at high levels during rebounds [13]. Iron Ore - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, iron ore futures fluctuated and consolidated. The spot prices of different iron ore products are provided [15]. - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: Since October, the daily output of molten iron has declined, the import volume of iron ore has increased year - on - year, the domestic production of raw ore is lower than last year, and the port inventory has continued to rise [16]. - **Outlook**: The supply - demand pattern is weak, and the futures may face resistance in rebounding. Investors can focus on short - selling opportunities at high levels [16]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures continued to decline [18]. - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: For coking coal, the impact of safety inspections on production is weakening, and supply is increasing. The downstream acceptance of high - priced goods is decreasing, and the procurement rhythm is slowing down. For coke, after the fourth price increase, the supply is stable, but the demand from steel mills may weaken due to profit compression [18]. - **Outlook**: Investors can focus on buying opportunities at low levels [18]. Ferroalloys - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main contracts of manganese - silicon and silicon - iron had different price changes. The spot prices of different ferroalloys are provided [20]. - **Supply - Demand and Cost Analysis**: The supply of manganese ore has increased, and the port inventory has decreased slightly. The cost of ferroalloys is rising. The production of rebar by sample steel mills has decreased, and the demand for ferroalloys is weak, but the overall over - supply situation is easing [20][21]. - **Outlook**: After a decline, investors can consider long - position opportunities at low levels when the spot loss expands [21]. Crude Oil - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, INE crude oil fluctuated upward [22]. - **News and Data**: There are news about Russia - US negotiations and the possible decision of OPEC+ to maintain oil production levels [22]. - **Outlook**: The main contract presents buying opportunities [24]. Fuel Oil - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, fuel oil fluctuated upward and temporarily got rid of the annual low [25]. - **Market Analysis**: The spot discount of Asian fuel oil has deepened, and the progress of the US 28 - point plan is slow, both of which are favorable for fuel oil prices [25]. - **Outlook**: The main contract presents buying opportunities [26]. Polyolefins - **Market Performance**: In the previous trading day, the PP market in Hangzhou had a slight increase in quotes, while the LLDPE price in the Yuyao market decreased in some parts [27]. - **Demand Analysis**: The average operating rate of the domestic polypropylene downstream industry has increased, but different sub - industries have different trends. The demand for some products is affected by seasons and market conditions [27]. - **Outlook**: Present buying opportunities [28]. Synthetic Rubber - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of synthetic rubber rose [29]. - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: The supply of raw materials is abundant, the supply of synthetic rubber is relatively loose, and the demand from tire enterprises is weak [29]. - **Outlook**: Expected to fluctuate [30]. Natural Rubber - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main contracts of natural rubber and 20 - grade rubber rose [31]. - **Supply - Demand and Inventory Analysis**: The supply is supported by weather and high overseas raw material prices. The demand is affected by enterprise maintenance, and the inventory is slightly increasing [31]. - **Outlook**: Investors can focus on buying opportunities [32]. PVC - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of PVC rose, and the spot price increased [33]. - **Supply - Demand and Cost Analysis**: The supply is increasing, the demand from different downstream industries is different, and the cost - profit situation is complex. The social inventory is increasing [33][34]. - **Outlook**: Pay attention to changes in the supply side [34]. Urea - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of urea rose [35]. - **Supply - Demand and Cost Analysis**: The supply has increased, the demand from different downstream products has changed differently, and the cost and profit situation is complex. The inventory is at a certain level [35]. - **Outlook**: The downward space is limited [36]. PX - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of PX rose [37]. - **Supply - Demand and Cost Analysis**: The PX load has increased, the import volume has decreased, and the cost is affected by crude oil fluctuations. The PXN spread is relatively strong, and the supply is slightly reduced [37][38]. - **Outlook**: May fluctuate and adjust in the short term. Control positions and be vigilant about crude oil changes [38]. PTA - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of PTA rose [39]. - **Supply - Demand and Cost Analysis**: The supply is decreasing, the demand from the polyester industry is relatively stable, and the processing fee is declining. The cost is affected by crude oil and raw material PX prices [39]. - **Outlook**: May fluctuate in the short term. Be cautious and pay attention to oil price changes [39]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of ethylene glycol declined [40]. - **Supply - Demand and Inventory Analysis**: The supply is slightly decreasing, the inventory accumulation has slowed down, and the demand from the downstream polyester industry is limited [40][41]. - **Outlook**: May be under pressure in the short term. Pay attention to port inventory and supply changes [42]. Short - Fiber - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of short - fiber rose [43]. - **Supply - Demand and Cost Analysis**: The supply is at a relatively high level, the demand from the downstream industry is stable, and the cost drive is increasing [43]. - **Outlook**: May fluctuate with costs in the short term. Control risks and pay attention to cost changes and macro - policy adjustments [43]. Bottle Chips - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of bottle chips rose [44]. - **Supply - Demand and Cost Analysis**: The supply is at a certain level, the demand from the downstream soft - drink industry is in the off - season, and the export is increasing. The cost is affected by raw material prices [44]. - **Outlook**: Expected to fluctuate with the cost side [44]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of lithium carbonate declined [45]. - **Supply - Demand and Inventory Analysis**: The supply is at a high level, the demand from the energy - storage and power - battery sectors is improving, and the social inventory is decreasing [45][46]. - **Outlook**: Pay attention to consumption continuity and mine restart progress [46]. Copper - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of Shanghai copper rose [47]. - **Macro - and Fundamental Analysis**: The possible early resignation of the Fed chairman increases the probability of interest rate cuts. The supply of copper ore is growing slowly, and the demand is affected by high prices and substitution effects. The social inventory has decreased [47]. - **Outlook**: May run strongly in the short term. Pay attention to whether it can effectively break through the oscillation range [47][48]. Aluminum - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of Shanghai aluminum rose, and the main contract of alumina declined [49]. - **Supply - Demand and Inventory Analysis**: The supply of domestic ore is tight, but the import of ore is increasing. The supply of alumina is in surplus, and the supply of electrolytic aluminum is stable. The demand is in the off - season, and the inventory is at a low level but may increase [49][50]. - **Outlook**: In a short - term adjustment state, but has long - term resilience [50][51]. Zinc - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of Shanghai zinc rose [52]. - **Supply - Demand and Inventory Analysis**: The supply of zinc concentrate is tight, the export window has opened, the demand is in the off - season but has some rigid support, and the social inventory is expected to decrease slightly [52]. - **Outlook**: Likely to continue the range - bound pattern [52][53]. Lead - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of Shanghai lead rose [54]. - **Supply - Demand and Inventory Analysis**: The supply of lead concentrate is slightly easing, the demand from the battery market is in the off - season, and the social inventory may stop decreasing [54]. - **Outlook**: May weakly fluctuate [54]. Tin - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of tin rose [55]. - **Supply - Demand and Inventory Analysis**: The supply of tin ore is tight, the demand has some structural support, and the refined tin inventory is decreasing [55]. - **Outlook**: May fluctuate strongly [55]. Nickel - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of nickel declined [56]. - **Macro - and Fundamental Analysis**: The market's expectation of Fed interest rate cuts is increasing. The price of nickel ore is stable, the production of nickel - iron is affected, the demand from the stainless - steel industry is weak, and the inventory is at a relatively high level [56]. - **Outlook**: May fluctuate [56]. Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main contracts of soybean oil and soybean meal rose. The spot prices of different products are provided [57]. - **Supply - Demand and Inventory Analysis**: The planting progress of Brazilian soybeans is slightly slower, the US soybean harvest is almost complete, the demand is expected to improve, the soybean crushing volume is high, and the inventory of soybean oil and soybean meal is increasing [57][58]. - **Outlook**: Investors can focus on long - position opportunities in the low - cost support range [58]. Palm Oil - **Market Performance**: The market has some price changes, and the export volume of Malaysia and the import volume of China are provided [59]. - **Supply - Demand and Inventory Analysis**: The export of Malaysian palm oil is decreasing, the production may decline seasonally, and the domestic inventory is at a medium level [59]. - **Outlook**: Consider buying on pullbacks [61]. Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - **Market Performance**: The Canadian rapeseed

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The macro - economic recovery momentum needs strengthening, and it is expected that the monetary policy will remain loose. Treasury bond futures are under pressure and should be treated with caution [6]. - The domestic economy is stable, but the recovery momentum is weak. However, due to low asset valuations, economic resilience, and improved market sentiment, the volatility center of stock index futures is expected to gradually rise, and investors can choose the right time to go long [9]. - Given the complex global trade and financial environment, the trend of "de - globalization" and "de - dollarization", and the slowdown of the US labor market, precious metals are favored. But considering the large recent increase, it is advisable to wait and see for long - entry opportunities [11]. - For steel products like rebar and hot - rolled coil, due to weak demand in the real estate industry and high inventory, their prices are expected to remain weak in the medium - term. Investors can focus on short - selling opportunities at high levels [13]. - The supply - demand pattern of iron ore is weak, and its futures may face resistance in rebound. Investors can look for short - selling opportunities at high levels [15]. - Coke and coking coal futures may stop falling and stabilize. Investors can pay attention to long - entry opportunities at low levels [18]. - The overall surplus pressure of ferroalloys is weakening. After a decline, investors can consider long - entry opportunities when the spot loss expands [21]. - For crude oil, although the number of rigs has increased, the increase in US crude oil production is still a long - term task. The 28 - point new plan brings new changes to the Russia - Ukraine conflict. Investors can focus on long - entry opportunities for the main contract [23]. - For fuel oil, although there are some negative factors, investors can still focus on long - entry opportunities for the main contract [27]. - For polyolefins, considering the current situation of the downstream industry, investors can focus on short - selling opportunities [29]. - Synthetic rubber is expected to fluctuate. Pay attention to the raw material market and supply changes [32]. - Natural rubber may show range - bound fluctuations in the short - term. Investors can focus on long - entry opportunities [33]. - For PVC, the oversupply situation continues, but the downward space is limited. Pay attention to the supply - side changes [35]. - Urea prices are expected to decline slightly in the next period, but the downward space is limited [38]. - PX may fluctuate and adjust in the short - term. Pay attention to controlling positions, be vigilant about crude oil changes, and follow macro - policy changes [40]. - PTA may fluctuate in the short - term. Be cautious, control risks, and pay attention to oil price changes [41]. - Ethylene glycol may be under pressure in the short - term. Focus on port inventory and supply changes [42]. - Short - fiber may fluctuate with costs in the short - term. Control risks and pay attention to cost changes and macro - policy adjustments [44]. - Bottle chips are expected to fluctuate with the cost side. Control risks [45]. - For lithium carbonate, pay attention to consumption sustainability and the resumption progress of mines [46]. - Copper prices are expected to fluctuate at high levels [48]. - Aluminum prices may experience a phased correction [50]. - Zinc prices are expected to fluctuate within a range [52]. - Lead prices may show wide - range fluctuations [54]. - Tin prices are expected to rise due to tight supply and certain demand resilience [55]. - Nickel prices may fluctuate. The cost of nickel ore has support, but the consumption is weak [56]. - For soybean oil and soybean meal, investors can focus on long - entry opportunities in the low - cost support range [58]. - Palm oil may be considered for long - entry on pullbacks [60]. - For rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil, a long - biased strategy can be considered for rapeseed oil [63]. - Cotton prices are expected to be weak [67]. - Sugar prices are under pressure and may fluctuate [71]. - Apple prices are expected to be strong [73]. - For live pigs, after partially closing out short positions, the remaining short positions can be temporarily held. Pay attention to the marginal changes in consumption caused by subsequent cooling [76]. - For eggs, it is advisable to wait and see for the time being [78]. - For corn and starch, it is advisable to wait and see. Corn starch may follow the corn market [81]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Treasury Bonds - On the previous trading day, most treasury bond futures closed down. The central bank conducted 3564 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 564 billion yuan. The profit of industrial enterprises in October decreased year - on - year, while the cumulative profit from January to October increased year - on - year [5]. - The macro - economic recovery momentum needs strengthening, and the monetary policy is expected to remain loose. Treasury bond yields are at a relatively low level, and the market risk preference has increased. Treasury bond futures are under pressure [6]. 3.2 Stock Index Futures - On the previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed performance. The National Development and Reform Commission arranged special treasury bonds for "two - major" construction projects in the past two years [8]. - The domestic economy is stable, but the recovery momentum is weak, and corporate profit growth is low. However, domestic asset valuations are low, and the economy has resilience. The market sentiment has improved, and the volatility center of stock index futures is expected to rise [9]. 3.3 Precious Metals - On the previous trading day, gold and silver futures both rose. The eurozone's economic and service industry sentiment indexes improved in November [11]. - The complex global environment and the slowdown of the US labor market are favorable for precious metals. But due to the large recent increase, it is better to wait and see [11]. 3.4 Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - On the previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures fluctuated weakly. The spot prices of related products are given. In the medium - term, the demand for rebar is weak, and the supply is high, with high inventory. The price of hot - rolled coil is expected to follow a similar trend [13]. 3.5 Iron Ore - On the previous trading day, iron ore futures fluctuated. The spot prices of different types of iron ore are provided. Since October, the daily output of hot metal has declined, the import volume has increased year - on - year, and the port inventory has risen [15]. 3.6 Coke and Coking Coal - On the previous trading day, coke and coking coal futures fluctuated. The supply of coking coal is increasing, and the demand from downstream coke enterprises is weakening. The supply of coke is stable, but the demand from steel mills may decline [18]. 3.7 Ferroalloys - On the previous trading day, manganese - silicon and silicon - iron futures both fell. The supply of manganese ore has increased, and the cost of ferroalloys is rising. The output of ferroalloys is declining, and the overall surplus is easing [20]. 3.8 Crude Oil - On the previous trading day, INE crude oil opened and closed higher. The CFTC data shows that speculators reduced their net short positions in US crude oil futures and options. The number of US oil and gas rigs has increased for three consecutive weeks. The 28 - point new plan brings new changes to the Russia - Ukraine conflict [22]. 3.9 Fuel Oil - On the previous trading day, fuel oil fluctuated upward. The delivery time of ultra - low - sulfur fuel oil in Singapore is inconsistent. The inventory in Singapore has increased in November. There are some negative factors for fuel oil prices, but investors can still focus on long - entry opportunities [25]. 3.10 Polyolefins - On the previous trading day, the offer price of PP in Hangzhou moved down, and the price of LLDPE in Yuyao partially decreased. The average operating rate of the domestic polypropylene downstream industry has increased slightly, but the order performance in some traditional fields is weak [28]. 3.11 Synthetic Rubber - On the previous trading day, synthetic rubber futures rose. The price of butadiene is under pressure, the supply is relatively loose, and the demand from tire enterprises is weak. The social inventory has increased slightly [30]. 3.12 Natural Rubber - On the previous trading day, natural rubber futures rose. The supply is affected by weather, and the demand from some enterprises is weak. The inventory has increased slightly [33]. 3.13 PVC - On the previous trading day, PVC futures rose. The supply is increasing, the demand of downstream industries varies, and the cost and profit situation is complex. The social inventory has increased [35]. 3.14 Urea - On the previous trading day, urea futures rose. The supply has increased, the demand of downstream products varies, and the industry profit has increased slightly. The inventory is lower than expected [38]. 3.15 PX - On the previous trading day, PX futures fell. The PXN spread is relatively strong, the supply is slightly reduced, and the cost is affected by crude oil. It may fluctuate and adjust in the short - term [40]. 3.16 PTA - On the previous trading day, PTA futures fell. The supply has decreased, the demand of polyester is stable, and the processing fee has declined. It may fluctuate in the short - term [41]. 3.17 Ethylene Glycol - On the previous trading day, ethylene glycol futures fell. The supply has decreased slightly, the inventory accumulation has slowed down, and the demand support is limited. It may be under pressure in the short - term [42]. 3.18 Short - Fiber - On the previous trading day, short - fiber futures fell. The supply is at a relatively high level, the demand is stable, and the processing fee is adjusted. It may fluctuate with costs in the short - term [44]. 3.19 Bottle Chips - On the previous trading day, bottle - chip futures fell. The processing fee is adjusted, the supply load has decreased, the export has increased slightly, and it may follow the cost side to fluctuate [45]. 3.20 Lithium Carbonate - On the previous trading day, lithium carbonate futures fell. The supply is at a high level, the consumption in the energy - storage and power - battery sectors has improved, and the inventory has decreased [46]. 3.21 Copper - On the previous trading day, copper futures fell slightly. The economic data strengthens the market's expectation of an interest - rate cut in December, which is beneficial to copper prices. But the supply of copper concentrate is tight, and the demand is weak [47]. 3.22 Aluminum - On the previous trading day, aluminum futures fell, while alumina futures rose. The supply of bauxite is sufficient, the supply of alumina is in surplus, and the demand for electrolytic aluminum is seasonally weak. Aluminum prices may experience a phased correction [49]. 3.23 Zinc - On the previous trading day, zinc futures rose. The processing fee of zinc concentrate has declined, the demand is weak in the off - season, and the raw - material shortage provides support for zinc prices [51]. 3.24 Lead - On the previous trading day, lead futures rose. The supply of lead concentrate is tight, the production of recycled lead is growing slowly, and the demand varies in different sectors. The inventory has increased [53]. 3.25 Tin - On the previous trading day, tin futures fell. The supply of tin ore is tight, the demand shows certain resilience, and the inventory is decreasing. Tin prices are expected to rise [55]. 3.26 Nickel - On the previous trading day, nickel futures rose. The price of nickel ore is stable, the production of downstream nickel - iron plants is affected, and the consumption of stainless steel is weak. Nickel prices may fluctuate [56]. 3.27 Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - On the previous trading day, soybean oil and soybean meal futures rose. The planting progress of Brazilian soybeans is slightly slower, the US soybean harvest is almost completed, and the demand is expected to improve. The inventory of oil and meal is high, but the demand is growing [57]. 3.28 Palm Oil - Malaysian palm oil rose for the second consecutive day due to production concerns. The export of Indonesian palm oil decreased in September, and the export of Malaysian palm oil from November 1 - 25 decreased compared with the previous month. The domestic inventory is at a medium level [59]. 3.29 Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - The Canadian rapeseed market was closed for Thanksgiving. The import of rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal in China in October showed different trends. The inventory of rapeseed, rapeseed meal, and rapeseed oil is at different levels [61]. 3.30 Cotton - On the previous trading day, domestic cotton futures rebounded. The USDA report increased the global and US cotton production and inventory forecasts. The domestic cotton production is high, and the demand is weak after the peak season [64]. 3.31 Sugar - On the previous trading day, sugar futures rebounded slightly. The number of sugar mills in Guangxi that have started crushing is less than last year, while the national new - sugar production has increased. The export of Brazilian sugar has increased, and the domestic import is expected to be high in the next two months [68]. 3.32 Apples - On the previous trading day, apple futures rose significantly due to favorable inventory data. The current inventory is at a low level in recent years, and the new - season apple production and quality have declined [72]. 3.33 Live Pigs - The national average price of live pigs decreased slightly. The supply pressure still exists, and the consumption change caused by subsequent cooling needs to be continuously monitored. Part of the short positions can be closed, and the remaining can be held temporarily [74]. 3.34 Eggs - On the previous trading day, the price of eggs in the main production areas rose, while that in the main sales areas remained unchanged. The egg - laying hen inventory is at a high level, and the supply has recovered. The consumption may be supported by cooling, and it is advisable to wait and see [77]. 3.35 Corn and Starch - On the previous trading day, corn futures closed flat, and corn - starch futures rose. The transportation of corn in the Northeast is affected, and the arrival volume at the northern port is low. The demand for corn is growing slightly, and corn - starch may follow the corn market [79].

2025 年 11 月 27 日星期四 重庆市江北区金沙门路 32 号 23 层； 023-63638617 上海市浦东新区世纪大道 210 号 10 楼 1001； 1 市场有风险 投资需谨慎 地址： 电话： | | | | 铅： | | 15 | | --- | --- | --- | | 锡： | | 15 | | 镍： | | 16 | | 豆油、豆粕： | | 16 | | 棕榈油： | | 17 | | 菜粕、菜油： | | 17 | | 棉花： | | 18 | | 白糖： | | 19 | | 苹果： | | 20 | | 生猪： | | 21 | | 鸡蛋： | | 21 | | 玉米&淀粉： | | 22 | | 免责声明 | | 24 | 当前国内经济保持平稳，但国内宏观经济复苏动能不强，企业盈利增速处在低位。 但是，一方面国内资产估值水平处在低位，估值修复仍有空间；另一方面，中国经济 有足够韧性。近期，市场情绪明显升温，增量资金持续入场。近期中美经贸不确定性 有所缓解，预计股指波动中枢将逐步上移，可择机做多。 小结：预计波动中枢将逐步上移，可择机做多。 国债： 上一交易日，国债期货全线 ...

2025 年 11 月 26 日星期三 重庆市江北区金沙门路 32 号 23 层； 023-63638617 国债： 上一交易日，国债期货收盘多数下跌，30 年期主力合约跌 0.33%报 115.160 元， 10 年期主力合约跌 0.08%报 108.220 元，5 年期主力合约持平于 105.980 元，2 年期主 力合约涨 0.01%报 102.422 元。 上海市浦东新区世纪大道 210 号 10 楼 1001； 1 市场有风险 投资需谨慎 地址： 电话： | | | | 铅： | | 15 | | --- | --- | --- | | 锡： | | 15 | | 镍： | | 16 | | 豆油、豆粕： | | 16 | | 棕榈油： | | 17 | | 菜粕、菜油： | | 18 | | 棉花： | | 18 | | 白糖： | | 19 | | 苹果： | | 20 | | 生猪： | | 21 | | 鸡蛋： | | 21 | | 玉米&淀粉： | | 22 | | 免责声明 | | 24 | 公开市场方面，央行公告称，11 月 25 日以固定利率、数量招标方式开展了 3021 亿元 7 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Treasury Bonds**: Expected to face some pressure, maintain a cautious stance [6][7]. - **Stock Index Futures**: The volatility center is expected to gradually move up, and investors can choose the right time to go long [9][10]. - **Precious Metals**: Temporarily wait and observe, and wait for opportunities to go long [11][12]. - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils**: The medium - term weakness of rebar prices is difficult to change, and hot - rolled coils may follow a similar trend. Investors can focus on shorting opportunities at high levels during rebounds [12]. - **Iron Ore**: The supply - demand pattern is weak, and investors can focus on shorting opportunities at high levels [14]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: May continue to correct in the short term, and investors can focus on buying opportunities during corrections [16]. - **Ferroalloys**: The overall surplus pressure is weakening. After a decline, investors can consider low - level opportunities when the spot falls into the loss range again [19]. - **Crude Oil**: Focus on short - term long - buying opportunities for the main contract [22]. - **Fuel Oil**: Temporarily wait and observe for the main contract [25]. - **Polyolefins**: Focus on long - buying opportunities [27]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: Expected to have a wide - range consolidation with limited downward space, and pay attention to raw material prices and supply changes [28]. - **Natural Rubber**: Focus on long - buying opportunities [32]. - **PVC**: Pay attention to changes on the supply side [36]. - **Urea**: The downward space is limited [38]. - **PX**: May have an oscillatory adjustment in the short term, control positions, and be vigilant about crude oil changes [39]. - **PTA**: May oscillate in the short term, be cautious, control risks, and pay attention to oil price changes [40]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: May be under pressure in the short term, and pay attention to port inventory and supply changes [41]. - **Short - Fiber**: May oscillate following costs in the short term, control risks, and pay attention to cost changes and macro - policy adjustments [43]. - **Bottle Chips**: Expected to oscillate following the cost side, and control risks [44]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Pay attention to consumption sustainability and mine restart progress [45]. - **Copper**: Expected to have a high - level oscillation [48]. - **Aluminum**: Expected to have a phased correction [50]. - **Zinc**: Expected to oscillate within a range [52]. - **Lead**: Expected to have a wide - range oscillation [54]. - **Tin**: The price is expected to rise [55]. - **Nickel**: Expected to oscillate [56]. - **Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal**: For soybean meal, consider exiting long positions when it continues to rise; for soybean oil, consider long - buying opportunities in the low - cost support range [58]. - **Palm Oil**: Consider buying on corrections [60]. - **Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil**: Consider a bullish approach for rapeseed oil [63]. - **Cotton**: The price is expected to be weak [67][68]. - **Sugar**: The price is expected to be under pressure and oscillate weakly [72][73]. - **Apples**: The price is expected to be strong [75]. - **Hogs**: Consider short - selling opportunities on rebounds and follow consumption changes [78]. - **Eggs**: Consider closing short positions and then temporarily wait and observe [82]. - **Corn and Starch**: For corn, it is advisable to wait and observe; corn starch may follow the corn market [85][86]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Treasury Bonds - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, most treasury bond futures closed down. The 30 - year main contract fell 0.31% to 115.570 yuan, the 10 - year main contract fell 0.04% to 108.430 yuan, the 5 - year main contract fell 0.06% to 105.855 yuan, and the 2 - year main contract remained flat at 102.460 yuan [5]. - **Policy and News**: The central bank conducted 375 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on November 21, with a net investment of 162.2 billion yuan. The National Development and Reform Commission issued a notice on the management measures for central budget - inner investment in rural revitalization [5]. Stock Index Futures - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed results. The CSI 300 index futures (IF) main contract fell 0.13%, the SSE 50 index futures (IH) main contract fell 0.20%, the CSI 500 index futures (IC) main contract rose 0.55%, and the CSI 1000 index futures (IM) main contract rose 0.84% [8]. - **Industry Situation**: As of the end of October, the national cumulative installed power generation capacity was 3.75 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 17.3%. The domestic economic recovery momentum is not strong, but the valuation of domestic assets is low, and the market sentiment has warmed up recently [9]. Precious Metals - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the gold main contract closed at 930.32, up 0.36%, and the night - session closed at 938.68; the silver main contract closed at 11,808, up 1.10%, and the night - session closed at 11,975 [11]. - **Industry Situation**: The global trade and financial environment is complex. The "anti - globalization" and "de - dollarization" trends are beneficial to the allocation and hedging value of gold. The slowdown of the US labor market and the expected Fed rate cuts are also beneficial to precious metals [11]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures rebounded slightly. The spot price of Tangshan common carbon billet was 2,980 yuan/ton, the spot price of Shanghai rebar was between 3,090 - 3,250 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai hot - rolled coil was quoted at 3,270 - 3,290 yuan/ton [12]. - **Industry Situation**: In the medium term, the price of finished products is dominated by industrial supply - demand logic. The demand for rebar is declining year - on - year, and the market will enter the off - season. The supply side has over - capacity, and the inventory pressure is obvious [12]. Iron Ore - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, iron ore futures oscillated and consolidated. The spot price of PB powder at the port was 795 yuan/ton, and the spot price of Super Special powder was 675 yuan/ton [14]. - **Industry Situation**: Since October, the daily output of hot metal has declined, the import volume of iron ore has increased year - on - year, and the port inventory has continued to rise [14]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures continued to be weak [16]. - **Industry Situation**: For coking coal, the impact of safety inspections on production is weakening, and the supply has increased. For coke, the fourth - round increase in the spot purchase price has been implemented, but the demand from steel mills may weaken [16]. Ferroalloys - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the manganese - silicon main contract rose 0.50% to 5,630 yuan/ton, and the silicon - iron main contract rose 0.04% to 5,456 yuan/ton [18]. - **Industry Situation**: The supply of manganese ore from Gabon has decreased, and the port inventory has decreased slightly. The cost of ferroalloys has increased, and the output has decreased. The overall surplus pressure has weakened [18][19]. Crude Oil - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, INE crude oil rebounded after hitting a low [20]. - **Industry Situation**: The number of active oil and gas rigs in the US has increased for three consecutive weeks. The "28 - point" new plan has brought new changes to the Russia - Ukraine conflict [20][21]. Fuel Oil - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, fuel oil rebounded after hitting a low and closed below the moving average group [23]. - **Industry Situation**: The narrowing of the Asian fuel oil spot discount and the new plan for the Russia - Ukraine conflict are negative for fuel oil prices [24]. Polyolefins - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the Hangzhou PP market oscillated downward, and the Yuyao LLDPE market had partial price drops [26]. - **Industry Situation**: The average start - up rate of the domestic polypropylene downstream industry has increased. The demand for modified PP and PP non - woven fabrics is strong, while the demand for traditional PP products is weak [26]. Synthetic Rubber - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the synthetic rubber main contract fell 0.81%. The price in Shandong was adjusted down to 11,200 yuan/ton, and the basis was stable [28]. - **Industry Situation**: The international oil price is low, the supply of butadiene is loose, and the supply of synthetic rubber is also loose. The demand from tire enterprises is weak, and the inventory has increased [29]. Natural Rubber - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the natural rubber main contract fell 0.10%, and the 20 - rubber main contract fell 0.53%. The Shanghai spot price was stable at around 14,800 yuan/ton, and the basis was stable [31]. - **Industry Situation**: The supply of natural rubber is affected by weather, and the demand from some enterprises has decreased. The inventory has increased slightly [31]. PVC - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the PVC main contract rose 0.47%, and the spot price increased by 10 - 20 yuan/ton. The basis was stable [33]. - **Industry Situation**: The supply of PVC exceeds demand, but the downward space is limited. The supply has increased this week, and the demand is mixed. The cost and profit have changed [33]. Urea - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the urea main contract fell 1.15%. The price in Shandong Linyi was adjusted down by 10 yuan/ton, and the basis slightly widened [37]. - **Industry Situation**: The total production of urea has increased, the start - up rate has slightly decreased, and the demand from downstream products has changed differently. The inventory of urea enterprises is lower than expected [37]. PX - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the PX main contract fell 0.06%. The PXN spread was adjusted to 260 US dollars/ton, and the short - process profit was stable [39]. - **Industry Situation**: The PX load has increased, and the import volume has decreased. The short - term PXN spread is strong, and the supply has decreased slightly. The cost side is oscillating, and there is a lack of driving force [39]. PTA - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the PTA2601 main contract rose 0.04% [40]. - **Industry Situation**: The PTA load has decreased, the polyester load is stable, and the processing fee has declined. The cost side is weak, and the raw material PX price support is limited [40]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the ethylene glycol main contract rose 1.68% [41]. - **Industry Situation**: The overall start - up load of ethylene glycol has decreased, the port inventory is stable, and the demand from the downstream polyester industry is weak [41]. Short - Fiber - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the short - fiber 2602 main contract rose 0.91% [42]. - **Industry Situation**: The short - fiber supply is at a relatively high level, the demand has not changed much, and the cost drive has increased [43]. Bottle Chips - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the bottle chips 2601 main contract rose 0.28% [44]. - **Industry Situation**: The raw material price support is limited, the bottle chips load is stable, the export growth rate has slowed down, and the supply - demand contradiction is not obvious. The main logic lies in the cost side [44]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main contract fell 2.88% to 90,480 yuan/ton [45]. - **Industry Situation**: The production of lithium carbonate is at a high level, and the demand from the energy storage and power battery sectors has improved. The social inventory is gradually decreasing [45]. Copper - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the Shanghai copper main contract closed at 86,040 yuan/ton, unchanged [46]. - **Industry Situation**: The supply of copper concentrate is tight, the smelting profit is poor, and the demand from the real economy is weak. The global liquidity is loose, which provides support for copper prices [47]. Aluminum - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the Shanghai aluminum main contract closed at 21,405 yuan/ton, up 0.12%; the alumina main contract closed at 2,733 yuan/ton, up 0.07% [49]. - **Industry Situation**: The supply of bauxite is sufficient, the alumina supply is in surplus, and the electrolytic aluminum production is stable. The demand is seasonally weak, and the aluminum price may be under pressure in the short term [49]. Zinc - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the Shanghai zinc main contract closed at 22,320 yuan/ton, down 0.13% [51]. - **Industry Situation**: The processing fee of zinc concentrate has declined rapidly, and some smelting enterprises are in losses. The demand is in the off - season, and the inventory has increased [51]. Lead - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the Shanghai lead main contract closed at 17,065 yuan/ton, down 0.58% [53]. - **Industry Situation**: The supply of lead concentrate is tight, the production of secondary lead is growing slowly, and the demand from the battery sector is mixed. The inventory has increased [53]. Tin - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main contract rose 0.05% to 294,380 yuan/ton [55]. - **Industry Situation**: The supply of tin ore is tight, the production of smelters is affected, and the demand has certain resilience. The refined tin inventory is decreasing [55]. Nickel - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main contract rose 0.69% to 116,100 yuan/ton [56]. - **Industry Situation**: The price of nickel ore is stable, the production of nickel - iron plants is affected, and the demand from the stainless steel sector is weak. The inventory is relatively high, and the market is in surplus [56]. Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the soybean meal main contract fell 0.20% to 3,011 yuan/ton, and the soybean oil main contract fell 0.46% to 8,168 yuan/ton [57]. - **Industry Situation**: The Brazilian soybean planting progress is slightly slower, and the US soybean harvest is basically completed. The soybean supply is relatively loose, and the demand for soybean oil has improved slightly [57][58]. Palm Oil - **Market Performance**: The Malaysian palm oil has fallen for three consecutive days. The export volume from November 1 - 20 decreased compared with the previous month. The domestic palm oil inventory is at a medium level in the past 7 years [59]. - **Industry Situation**: The price of palm oil may be affected by the exchange rate and demand. The production may decline seasonally, and the inventory may decrease [59]. Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - **Market Performance**: The Canadian rapeseed rose slightly. The price of rapeseed oil is affected by the crude oil price. The domestic import of rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil has changed [61][62]. - **Industry Situation**: The inventory of rapeseed in China is at a low level in the past 7 years, and the inventory of rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil is at a relatively high level [62]. Cotton - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, domestic Zhengzhou cotton oscillated higher, and the overnight external cotton rebounded slightly [64]. - **Industry Situation**: The USDA has raised the global and US cotton production and inventory forecasts. The domestic cotton production is high, and the downstream demand is weak [64][67]. Sugar - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, Zhengzhou sugar rebounded slightly, and the overnight external raw sugar

2025 年 11 月 21 日星期五 重庆市江北区金沙门路 32 号 23 层； 023-63638617 上海市浦东新区世纪大道 210 号 10 楼 1001； 1 市场有风险 投资需谨慎 地址： 电话： | | | | 铅： | | 15 | | --- | --- | --- | | 锡： | | 15 | | 镍： | | 16 | | 豆油、豆粕： | | 16 | | 棕榈油： | | 17 | | 菜粕、菜油： | | 17 | | 棉花： | | 18 | | 白糖： | | 19 | | 苹果： | | 20 | | 生猪： | | 20 | | 鸡蛋： | | 21 | | 玉米&淀粉： | | 22 | | 免责声明 | | 23 | 国债： 上一交易日，国债期货收盘多数上涨，30 年期主力合约跌 0.21%报 115.870 元， 10 年期主力合约涨 0.06%报 108.485 元，5 年期主力合约涨 0.06%报 105.935 元，2 年 期主力合约持平于 102.462 元。 公开市场方面，央行公告称，11 月 20 日以固定利率、数量招标方式开展了 3000 亿元 7 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - The macro - economic recovery momentum needs to be strengthened, and the monetary policy is expected to remain loose. Different commodities have different market trends and investment suggestions due to their own supply - demand relationships, cost factors, and external market environments [5]. Summary by Commodity Categories Fixed - Income - **Treasury Bonds**: The previous trading day saw a decline in treasury bond futures. With the current macro - economic situation and market conditions, there is still some pressure on treasury bond futures, and caution is advised [5]. - **Stock Index Futures**: The previous trading day showed mixed performance. Given the current domestic economic situation, market sentiment, and external factors, the risk of a significant decline is low, and investors can choose the right time to go long [7][8]. Precious Metals - **Gold and Silver**: The previous trading day witnessed price increases. Considering the global trade and financial environment, central bank actions, and the current price level, it is advisable to wait and see for a long - position opportunity [10]. Base Metals - **Copper**: The previous trading day had a slight increase. Affected by macro - economic factors and supply - demand relationships, copper prices are expected to fluctuate at a high level [47]. - **Aluminum**: The previous trading day had a slight decline. Alumina supply is relatively loose, and aluminum needs to beware of seasonal consumption pressure and profit - taking, with a possible phased correction [49]. - **Zinc**: The previous trading day remained flat. With tight supply of zinc concentrates and weak downstream demand, zinc prices are expected to fluctuate within a range [52]. - **Lead**: The previous trading day had a slight increase. Due to supply and demand factors, lead prices are expected to operate within a range [54]. - **Tin**: The previous trading day had a slight decline. With tight supply and certain demand support, tin prices are expected to fluctuate strongly [56]. - **Nickel**: The previous trading day had an increase. Facing supply - demand contradictions, nickel prices are expected to fluctuate [58]. Ferrous Metals - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: The previous trading day had a slight decline. Considering supply - demand relationships and technical aspects, prices are expected to be weak in the medium - term, and investors can focus on short - selling opportunities at high levels during rebounds [12]. - **Iron Ore**: The previous trading day had a slight rebound. With a weak supply - demand pattern and technical resistance, investors can focus on short - selling opportunities at high levels [14]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The previous trading day had a significant decline. Based on supply - demand changes and technical analysis, there may be a short - term correction, and investors can focus on buying opportunities during the correction [16]. - **Ferroalloys**: The previous trading day had a decline. With high - level production decline, weak demand recovery, and cost support, investors can consider long - position opportunities at low levels [18]. Energy - **Crude Oil**: The previous trading day had an upward trend. Considering supply - demand factors and market news, there are concerns about supply surplus, and investors can focus on short - selling opportunities in the short - term [20][21]. - **Fuel Oil**: The previous trading day had a weak performance. With mixed supply - demand factors, investors can focus on short - selling opportunities [23][24]. Chemicals - **Polyolefins**: The previous trading day had a weak performance. With improved downstream demand in some areas, investors can focus on long - position opportunities [26]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The previous trading day had an increase. It is expected to operate in a volatile manner, and attention should be paid to raw material prices and supply changes [28]. - **Natural Rubber**: The previous trading day had an increase. With supply and demand factors, there is still room for short - term price increases, and investors can focus on long - position opportunities [31]. - **PVC**: The previous trading day had a decline. With an oversupply situation, attention should be paid to supply - side changes [33]. - **Urea**: The previous trading day had a slight increase. It is expected that the market will decline slightly in the next period, but the downside space is limited [35]. - **PX**: The previous trading day had an increase. With improved short - term supply - demand structure, it is expected to fluctuate and adjust, and investors can participate in the range [37]. - **PTA**: The previous trading day had an increase. With low processing fees, low inventory, and cost factors, it is expected to operate in a volatile manner, and caution is needed [39]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The previous trading day had a decline. With increased supply and inventory, it is expected to be under pressure in the short - term, and attention should be paid to inventory and supply changes [40]. - **Short - Fiber**: The previous trading day had an increase. With high - level supply, stable demand, and enhanced cost - driving, it is expected to fluctuate with costs [43]. - **Bottle Chips**: The previous trading day had an increase. With raw material price support and stable supply and demand, it is expected to follow cost fluctuations [44]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The previous trading day had a significant increase. With strong supply and demand, inventory is being depleted, and attention should be paid to consumption sustainability [45]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal**: The previous trading day had different performances. With sufficient soybean supply and improved demand for soybean oil, investors can focus on long - position opportunities for soybean oil and consider exiting long positions for soybean meal [59]. - **Palm Oil**: The previous trading day had an increase. Affected by supply - demand factors, investors can consider long - position opportunities during corrections [61]. - **Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil**: The previous trading day had a decline. With supply - demand and external factors, investors can consider a long - position strategy for rapeseed oil [63]. - **Cotton**: The previous trading day had a slight rebound. With increased global and US production and inventory, and domestic supply and demand factors, cotton prices are expected to be weak [66]. - **Sugar**: The previous trading day had a decline. With global production expectations and domestic supply pressure, sugar prices are expected to fluctuate weakly [70]. - **Apples**: The previous trading day had a high - level volatile operation. With current inventory and market conditions, apple prices are expected to operate strongly [74]. - **Pigs**: The previous trading day had a price increase. With sufficient supply and uncertain demand, investors can consider short - selling opportunities during rebounds [77]. - **Eggs**: The previous trading day had a price decline. With high - level supply and weak demand, investors can consider closing short positions gradually [79]. - **Corn and Starch**: The previous trading day had an increase. With new - season corn supply pressure and inventory factors, it is advisable to wait and see for corn, and starch may follow the corn market [81].