1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - The macro - economic recovery momentum needs to be strengthened, and the monetary policy is expected to remain loose. The bond futures are under pressure, the stock index is expected to rise, and the precious metals market will see increased volatility. Different commodities have different market trends and investment strategies based on their supply - demand fundamentals, cost factors, and macro - environment [6][8][11] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fixed - Income 3.1.1 Treasury Bonds - The previous trading day, most treasury bond futures closed down. The central bank conducted 158.3 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 7.22 billion yuan. The GDP in 2025 increased by 5% year - on - year. The social consumption, fixed - asset investment, and real estate data showed mixed trends. It's expected that treasury bond futures are under pressure, and investors should be cautious [5][6] 3.1.2 Stock Index Futures - The previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed trends. The housing price in 70 large and medium - sized cities in December 2025 declined. Although the domestic economic growth is stable, the recovery momentum is weak, but the asset valuation is low, and the market sentiment is rising. It's expected that the stock index will gradually move up, and the previous long positions can be held [8] 3.2 Precious Metals - The previous trading day, gold and silver futures rose. The IMF raised China's economic growth forecast. The "anti - globalization" and "de - dollarization" trends are beneficial to gold, but the recent sharp rise in precious metals has increased speculative sentiment. It's expected that the market will be more volatile, and investors should exit long positions and wait and see [10][11] 3.3 Base Metals 3.3.1 Steel Products (including Rebar, Hot - Rolled Coil) - The previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures were weakly volatile. In the medium term, the price of steel products is determined by industrial supply - demand. The demand for rebar is declining, and the market is in the off - season. The supply pressure has been relieved, and the inventory is slightly higher than last year. It's expected that the price will continue to be weakly volatile, and investors can look for opportunities to go long on dips [13] 3.3.2 Iron Ore - The previous trading day, iron ore futures fell sharply. The demand for iron ore is decreasing, the supply is increasing, and the port inventory is at a five - year high. The futures are under pressure at high levels and may correct in the short term. Investors can look for opportunities to go long on dips [15][16] 3.3.3 Coking Coal and Coke - The previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures fell slightly. The production of coking coal is stable, and the demand for coke may increase, but the iron - making demand is decreasing. The futures' rebound is blocked. Investors can look for opportunities to buy at low levels [18] 3.3.4 Ferroalloys - The previous trading day, manganese silicon and silicon iron futures fell. The supply of manganese ore is gradually recovering, and the cost of ferroalloys is fluctuating at a low level. The production of ferroalloys is at a low level in the past five years, and the over - supply situation has slightly eased. The price may rebound after a decline, and investors can consider long positions in the low - level range [20][21] 3.4 Energy 3.4.1 Crude Oil - The previous trading day, INE crude oil rose and then fell. The US is accelerating the expansion of Chevron's oil production in Venezuela, which is negative for oil prices, but the CFTC data shows that US funds are bullish on crude oil. The rebound of crude oil is expected to continue, and investors can look for long - position opportunities [22][23] 3.4.2 Fuel Oil - The previous trading day, fuel oil fluctuated downward. The inventory of heavy fuel oil in Fujairah increased, and the demand for low - sulfur fuel oil decreased. The increase in Asian fuel oil supply is negative for prices, but the stable crude oil price provides support. Investors can look for long - position opportunities [25] 3.4.3 Polyolefins - The previous trading day, the PP market in Hangzhou was partially loose, and the LLDPE price in Yuyao fell. The cold weather in the north and early employee return in the south have affected the construction, transportation, and production of small and medium - sized enterprises. However, the demand for modified PP in high - end manufacturing is growing. The profit of external - propylene - purchasing enterprises has recovered, but the PDH is still in deep loss. Investors can look for long - position opportunities [27][28] 3.5 Rubber 3.5.1 Synthetic Rubber - The previous trading day, synthetic rubber futures fell. The market rose last week, supported by the rising butadiene price and high device operation rate, but limited by weak downstream demand. It's expected to fluctuate strongly, and the focus should be on butadiene price, downstream demand recovery, and device maintenance in January [30] 3.5.2 Natural Rubber - The previous trading day, natural rubber futures fell. The domestic rubber - tapping season is ending, the raw material price is rising, the demand from tire enterprises is increasing, but the inventory is accumulating. It's expected to fluctuate widely in the short term [32] 3.6 Chemicals 3.6.1 PVC - The previous trading day, PVC futures fell. It's in the traditional off - season, but the policy expectation may lead to a strong - side fluctuation. In the medium term, capacity clearance and export growth may improve the supply - demand. The supply has decreased, the demand is weak, and the inventory has increased. It's expected to fluctuate strongly [34] 3.6.2 Urea - The previous trading day, urea futures fell. In the short term, the price will be strongly volatile, driven by export demand and cost support. The supply is at a high level, the industrial demand for compound fertilizer is increasing, and the agricultural demand is limited. The inventory is lower than expected. It's expected to be strongly volatile [35] 3.6.3 PX - The previous trading day, PX futures rose. The PXN spread and short - term profit are stable, the PX operation rate is increasing, but the falling crude oil price is a drag. It's expected to fluctuate and adjust in the short term, and investors can participate within the range [36] 3.6.4 PTA - The previous trading day, PTA futures rose. The supply has decreased slightly, the demand from polyester enterprises has decreased due to profit compression, and the inventory is low. It's expected to fluctuate in the short term and may accumulate inventory during the Spring Festival. Investors should operate carefully and pay attention to oil prices [37] 3.6.5 Ethylene Glycol - The previous trading day, ethylene glycol futures fell. The supply is expected to increase, the port inventory is under pressure, and it's in the seasonal inventory - accumulation period. The price may be under pressure, and investors should wait and see [39] 3.6.6 Short - Fiber - The previous trading day, short - fiber futures rose. The supply is at a relatively high level, the terminal factories are digesting raw material inventory, and the inventory is at a low level, providing support. It's expected to follow the raw material price and fluctuate. Investors should control risks [40] 3.6.7 Bottle Chips - The previous trading day, bottle - chip futures fell. The processing fee has decreased, the supply is expected to decrease during the Spring Festival, and the export growth rate has increased. It's expected to follow the cost and fluctuate, and investors should participate carefully and pay attention to device maintenance [41] 3.6.8 Soda Ash - The previous trading day, soda ash futures fell. The supply is abundant, the inventory is accumulating, the downstream demand is general, and it's in the off - season. The downward space is limited, and it's advisable to operate within the range in the short term [42] 3.6.9 Glass - The previous trading day, glass futures fell. The supply - demand is in a loose pattern, the inventory of traders is increasing, and the demand from processing plants is weak. Affected by the cold wave, the sales may be affected. It's expected to fluctuate before the Spring Festival [43] 3.6.10 Caustic Soda - The previous trading day, caustic soda futures fell. The supply is sufficient, the inventory is accumulating, the demand is stable, and the cost has decreased. The profit has improved, but the future price is still not optimistic [44] 3.7 Pulp and Minerals 3.7.1 Pulp - The previous trading day, pulp futures fell. The import pulp market is weak, the price is differentiated, and the inventory is at a relatively high level and still accumulating. The spot trading is light, and the price is under pressure [45] 3.7.2 Lithium Carbonate - The previous trading day, lithium carbonate futures fell. The market trading sentiment has cooled down. The supply is at a high level, the demand from the energy - storage and power - battery sectors is improving, and the inventory is decreasing. The price has strong support below, but the short - term volatility may increase [46] 3.7.3 Copper - The previous trading day, copper futures rose. The US inflation is high, the dollar index is rising, which suppresses the base metals. The copper supply is tight, but the high price has suppressed the demand, and the inventory is increasing. The price is at a high level, and the risk is greater than the opportunity [48] 3.7.4 Aluminum - The previous trading day, aluminum futures rose, and alumina futures fell. The supply of bauxite is abundant, the alumina market is in oversupply, the electrolytic - aluminum production increase is limited, and the demand is affected by the off - season and high price. The alumina can be short - sold at high levels before the Spring Festival, and the aluminum price may correct in the short term [50][51] 3.7.5 Zinc - The previous trading day, zinc futures fell slightly. The raw - material supply is tight, the consumption is seasonally weak, and the inventory has decreased slightly. Driven by the strong non - ferrous metals market, investors should be cautious about chasing up [53] 3.7.6 Lead - The previous trading day, lead futures fell slightly. The supply of lead concentrate is tight, and the demand is differentiated. The low inventory of primary lead and the cost of recycled lead support the price, and the price is expected to fluctuate within a range [55] 3.7.7 Tin - The previous trading day, tin futures rose. The supply of tin ore is tight, the demand is supported by emerging fields, and the inventory is decreasing. It's expected to fluctuate strongly, and investors should control risks [57] 3.7.8 Nickel - The previous trading day, nickel futures rose. The global geopolitical situation is tense, and the nickel production quota in Indonesia has decreased. The nickel - ore price is stable, but the stainless - steel market is weak, and the refined - nickel inventory is at a relatively high level. The overall supply of primary nickel is in excess [58] 3.8 Agricultural Products 3.8.1 Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - The previous trading day, soybean meal futures fell, and soybean oil futures rose. Brazilian soybeans are entering the harvest season, the soybean - pressing volume of oil mills has increased, and the inventory has decreased. The demand for soybean meal is growing, and the demand for soybean oil has improved. Investors can look for long - position opportunities for soybean meal at low - cost levels and consider exiting long positions for soybean oil when the price rises [59][60] 3.8.2 Palm Oil - Malaysian palm - oil futures were almost stable. The cancellation of Indonesia's B50 bio - fuel policy is negative, but the upcoming festival demand provides support. The export of Malaysian palm oil has increased, and the domestic inventory is at a medium level in the past seven years. Investors can consider long - position opportunities after a correction [61][62] 3.8.3 Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - China will reduce the comprehensive tariff on Canadian rapeseed. The import of rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil has changed. The inventory of rapeseed meal is accumulating, and the inventory of rapeseed oil is decreasing. Investors can consider holding the position of expanding the spread between soybean and rapeseed products [64][65] 3.8.4 Cotton - The previous trading day, domestic cotton futures fell. The USDA supply - demand report is positive, and the domestic cotton harvest is good, but the inventory accumulation is lower than expected. The future planting area in Xinjiang will be reduced, and the demand is resilient. The price is expected to be strong in the medium and long term, but the domestic valuation is relatively high in the short term. Investors can buy on dips [66][67] 3.8.5 Sugar - The previous trading day, sugar futures fell. India's sugar production is expected to increase significantly, and the domestic sugar supply is sufficient during the peak - pressing season. The import is also expected to be high in January. The upward space is limited after the previous rebound, and it's advisable to take a short - side operation in the long term [69][70] 3.8.6 Apples - The previous trading day, apple futures fell sharply. The inventory is at a low level in recent years, and the production and quality have declined. The price is expected to be strong in the long term, and investors can buy on dips [72][74] 3.8.7 Hogs - The previous trading day, hog futures fell. The northern market is stable, and the southern market is rising slightly. The supply in the first quarter is still under pressure, and investors should wait and see [76] 3.8.8 Eggs - The previous trading day, egg futures fell. The cost of egg production has increased, the inventory of laying hens is at a high level, but the supply is expected to decrease slightly. The profit is improving, and investors can consider a bull - spread strategy [77][78] 3.8.9 Corn and Corn Starch - The previous trading day, corn and corn - starch futures fell. The northern - port inventory is low, the sales progress in the northeast is fast, and the spot price is strong. The demand from deep - processing and feed enterprises has changed. The domestic corn supply and demand are basically balanced, and the corn - starch market may follow the corn market. Investors should wait for the release of supply pressure [79][80] 3.8.10 Logs - The previous trading day, log futures fell. The supply is abundant, the inventory has different trends, and the delivery is affected by downstream pre - holiday stocking. The supply - demand pattern varies between the north and the south. The price is expected to be stable, and the futures may fluctuate at the bottom [83][84]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The GDP growth target of 5% in 2025 was successfully achieved, but the growth rate declined quarter - by - quarter. The macro - economic data in December continued to fall, and the recovery momentum remained weak. Consumption, fixed - asset investment, and the real estate market were sluggish, while exports showed resilience and inflation data improved [3]. - A rational and objective view of the current macro - economy is needed. The transformation, adjustment, and bottoming - out of the real estate market require time, and the domestic economic recovery cannot be achieved overnight. More active macro - policies should be implemented to expand domestic demand and optimize supply [4]. - In the future, "expanding domestic demand and combating cut - throat competition" will remain important long - term policy measures. The financial market is in a state of "weak reality, strong expectation", and the market sentiment is continuously improving. In 2026, the macro - economy and asset prices are expected to continue the upward repair trend, but patience is required [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Manufacturing PMI: A Slight Rebound but Still Weak - In December, the manufacturing PMI was 50.1%, up 0.9 percentage points from the previous month, entering the expansion range. Large - scale enterprises' PMI was 50.8%, up 1.5 percentage points; medium - sized enterprises' PMI was 49.8%, up 0.9 percentage points; small - sized enterprises' PMI was 48.6%, down 0.5 percentage points [6]. - Among the five sub - indices of the manufacturing PMI, the production index, new order index, and supplier delivery time index were above the critical point, while the raw material inventory index and employment index were below it. The production and new order indices increased, indicating accelerated production and improved market demand, but the employment index declined slightly [6]. - Overall, although the manufacturing PMI rebounded in December, the manufacturing sector was still weak, and the economic recovery momentum was insufficient [9]. 3.2 CPI and PPI: Inflation Continued to Improve - In December 2025, the national CPI rose 0.8% year - on - year and 0.2% month - on - month. Food and non - food prices both increased, and among the eight major categories of prices, five increased and two decreased year - on - year [10]. - The PPI decreased 1.9% year - on - year in December, with the decline narrowing by 0.3 percentage points, and increased 0.2% month - on - month, with the growth rate expanding by 0.1 percentage points. The anti - cut - throat competition policy has achieved continuous results, and the PPI year - on - year growth rate is expected to turn positive in 2026 [12][15]. 3.3 Import and Export: Maintaining Resilience - In December, China's imports denominated in US dollars increased 5.7% year - on - year, and exports increased 6.6% year - on - year, both exceeding expectations. The trade surplus was 1,141.4 billion US dollars [16]. - Since the second quarter, exports have been stronger than expected, showing strong resilience. The real risk for China's foreign trade lies in the potential economic recession in the US and the slowdown of global economic growth [18]. - In December, China's exports to regions other than the US maintained steady growth, and exports to ASEAN countries continued to replace those to the US [19]. 3.4 Credit: Weak Resident Credit Demand and Declining M1 Growth - At the end of 2025, the stock of social financing scale was 442.12 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8.3%. The annual increment of social financing scale was 35.6 trillion yuan, 3.34 trillion yuan more than the previous year [20][21]. - In December, resident short - term and long - term loans both decreased significantly, indicating weak resident consumption and housing credit demand. Government bond issuance slowed down, M1 growth declined, but enterprise credit improved and M2 growth rebounded [24][25]. - Overall, the credit demand of the real economy was still weak, and the upward trend of M1 and M2 growth faced resistance [26]. 3.5 Industrial Production, Consumption, and Investment: Industrial Production Rebounded, while Consumption and Investment Growth Continued to Decline - In December 2025, the added value of large - scale industrial enterprises increased 5.2% year - on - year and 0.49% month - on - month. For the whole year of 2025, it increased 5.9% compared with the previous year [27]. - In December, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased 0.9% year - on - year. After excluding the impact of national subsidies, consumption in 2025 was weak, indicating insufficient domestic demand. Further consumption - promotion policies may be introduced in 2026 [27][28]. - In 2025, the national fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) decreased 3.8% year - on - year. The growth rates of manufacturing investment, infrastructure investment, and real estate development investment all continued to decline [32]. 3.6 Real Estate Market: Continued Downtrend - In 2025, the sales area and sales volume of newly built commercial housing decreased by 8.7% and 12.6% respectively year - on - year. The real estate development investment decreased 17.2% year - on - year [31][32]. - The new construction, construction, and completion of real estate all declined further. The real estate development climate index continued to fall in December [35][36]. - The real estate market is currently at the bottom stage. With the decline of the base, the year - on - year decline of sales area and sales volume is gradually narrowing. The first half of 2026 is expected to be a critical period for the real estate market to stop falling and stabilize [38]. 3.7 Summary and Outlook - In December, the macro - economy was weak, with consumption, fixed - asset investment, and the real estate market remaining sluggish, while exports were resilient and inflation data improved [40]. - The main constraints on macro - economic recovery and asset price repair are insufficient domestic effective demand represented by real estate and consumption, and over - capacity in multiple industries. More policy support is needed [40]. - The financial market is in a state of "weak reality, strong expectation". In 2026, the macro - economy and asset prices are expected to continue the upward repair trend, but one should track policy implementation details and wait for positive macro - economic signals [40].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The macro - economic recovery momentum needs strengthening, and the bond futures are expected to face pressure, so it's advisable to stay cautious [6]. - The central electricity consumption in China reached 10.4 trillion kWh in 2025, and the stock index is expected to have its volatility center gradually move up, and previous long positions can be held [9][10]. - The global trade - financial environment is complex, and there is a significant speculative sentiment in precious metals. It is recommended to exit long positions and wait and see [13][14]. - The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coils may continue to weakly fluctuate, and investors can look for opportunities to go long on dips [16]. - The iron ore market's supply - demand pattern has weakened, and short - term corrections may occur. Investors can go long on dips [18]. - The prices of coking coal and coke futures rebounded but faced resistance. Investors can look for low - level buying opportunities [21]. - After 2025 Q4, the ferroalloy has an overall over - supply pressure. One can consider long positions in the low - level range [24]. - The crude oil is expected to continue its rebound, and one can focus on long opportunities in the main contract [26]. - The increase in Asian fuel oil supply is bearish, but the stable cost of crude oil provides support. One can focus on long opportunities in the main contract [27]. - The new demand in high - end manufacturing supports the modified PP industry. The market is waiting for PDH maintenance, and one can focus on long opportunities in polyolefin [29]. - The synthetic rubber is expected to fluctuate strongly [33]. - The natural rubber is expected to show wide - range fluctuations [35]. - The PVC is expected to fluctuate strongly due to policy expectations and potential supply - demand improvement [36]. - The urea price will maintain a strong - side fluctuation in the short term driven by export demand and cost support [37]. - The PX is expected to fluctuate and adjust in the short term. One can participate in the range and beware of external market risks [40]. - The PTA is expected to oscillate. Operate cautiously and pay attention to oil price changes [43]. - For ethylene glycol, due to supply increase and inventory pressure, it's advisable to observe cautiously [44]. - The short - fiber may fluctuate with raw material prices. Control risks and pay attention to cost and downstream stocking [46]. - The bottle - chip may follow the cost to fluctuate. Participate cautiously and pay attention to maintenance implementation [47]. - The soda ash should be traded within the range in the short term, paying attention to policy - driven market changes [49]. - The glass is expected to fluctuate before the Spring Festival [50]. - The outlook for caustic soda is not optimistic under the current supply - demand situation [52]. - The pulp market is under pressure from inventory and weak demand, and the price is expected to be weak [53]. - The lithium carbonate price may have increased short - term volatility, but there is strong support below [55]. - The copper price is at a high level and may adjust [57]. - The aluminum price is at a high level and may adjust [60]. - Be cautious when chasing the rise of zinc [62]. - The lead price will maintain range - bound fluctuations [65]. - The tin price is expected to fluctuate strongly, but control risks [66]. - The nickel is in an oversupply situation, and follow - up policies in Indonesia need attention [68]. - For soybean meal, one can look for long opportunities in the low - cost support range; for soybean oil, long positions can consider exiting on rallies [70]. - One can consider long opportunities in palm oil after corrections [73]. - One can consider reducing positions in the spread between soybean - rapeseed meal and oil [75]. - The cotton price is expected to be strong in the medium - and long - term. Buy on dips after corrections [77]. - The upward space for sugar is limited in the medium - and long - term, and the upward pressure is increasing [81]. - The apple price is expected to be strong in the medium - and long - term [86]. - For live pigs, it's advisable to wait and see for changes in market capital structure [87]. - For eggs, a positive spread strategy can be considered [88]. - The corn starch may follow the corn market. Wait for the release of corn supply pressure [90]. - The log price is expected to fluctuate at the bottom [91]. 3. Summaries According to the Catalog Pulp - The previous trading day's main contract closed at 5362 yuan/ton, down 1.94%. The import pulp market sentiment turned weak, prices showed a divergent trend, and the inventory was at a relatively high level, continuing the cumulative trend. The spot trading was light [53]. Carbonate Lithium - The previous trading day's main contract fell 8.99% to 146,200 yuan/ton. The market trading sentiment cooled down. The supply and demand were both strong, and the inventory was gradually decreasing. The price had strong support below, but short - term volatility might increase [54][55]. Copper - The previous trading day's Shanghai copper main contract closed at 100,280 yuan/ton, down 1.56%. The supply was extremely tight, but high prices inhibited demand, and the inventory was increasing. The price was at a high level and might adjust [56][57]. Aluminum - The previous trading day's Shanghai aluminum main contract closed at 23,945 yuan/ton, down 0.99%. The alumina supply was in significant excess, and the electrolytic aluminum inventory was increasing. The price was at a high level and might adjust [58][59]. Zinc - The previous trading day's Shanghai zinc main contract closed at 24,405 yuan/ton, down 2.09%. The raw material supply was tight, and the consumption was seasonally weak. Be cautious when chasing the rise [61][62]. Lead - The previous trading day's Shanghai lead main contract closed at 17,230 yuan/ton, down 2.07%. The supply was restricted, and the demand was differentiated. The price maintained range - bound fluctuations [63][64]. Tin - The previous trading day's Shanghai tin main contract fell 8.42% to 379,400 yuan/ton. The supply was tight, and the demand had certain resilience. The price was expected to fluctuate strongly [66]. Nickel - The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel main contract fell 3.1% to 139,890 yuan/ton. The cost was expected to rise, but the consumption was not optimistic, and it was in an oversupply situation [67][68]. Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - The previous trading day's soybean meal main contract fell 0.76% to 2727 yuan/ton, and the soybean oil main contract rose 0.63% to 8016 yuan/ton. The soybean supply was relatively loose, the demand for soybean meal was growing moderately, and the demand for soybean oil improved slightly [69][70]. Palm Oil - The Malaysian palm oil rose for two consecutive weeks. The export increased, and the domestic inventory was at a medium level in the past 7 years. One can consider long opportunities after corrections [71][72]. Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - The Canadian rapeseed rose. China will reduce the comprehensive tariff on Canadian rapeseed. The domestic rapeseed meal and oil inventories are decreasing. One can consider reducing spread positions [74][75]. Cotton - The previous trading day's domestic cotton futures fluctuated down. The USDA report was favorable, and the domestic supply was expected to be tight in the future, with demand showing resilience. The price was expected to be strong in the medium - and long - term [76][77]. Sugar - The previous trading day's Zhengzhou sugar fluctuated weakly. India had a strong production increase expectation, and the domestic market faced double - supply pressure. The upward space was limited in the medium - and long - term [79][81]. Apple - The previous trading day's domestic apple futures fell more than 2%. The inventory was at a low level in recent years, and the production and quality declined. The price was expected to be strong in the medium - and long - term [83][85]. Live Pigs - The previous trading day's main contract fell 0.42% to 11,980 yuan/ton. The supply in the first quarter might face great pressure, and it's advisable to wait and see [87]. Eggs - The previous trading day's main contract rose 0.39% to 3072 yuan/500kg. The supply in January was expected to be at a high level, and a positive spread strategy could be considered [88]. Corn and Starch - The previous trading day's corn main contract fell 0.13% to 2281 yuan/ton, and the corn starch main contract rose 0.04% to 2555 yuan/ton. The corn supply pressure needed to be further released, and the starch might follow the corn market [89][90]. Logs - The previous trading day's main contract closed at 778.5 yuan/ton, down 0.38%. The supply was abundant, and the market was stable. The price was expected to fluctuate at the bottom [91].

2026 年 1 月 16 日星期五 重庆市江北区金沙门路 32 号 23 层； 023-67071029 上海市浦东新区世纪大道 210 号 10 楼 1001； 021-61101854 地址： 电话： 1 市场有风险 投资需谨慎 | 目录 | | --- | | 纸浆： 15 | | 碳酸锂： 16 | | --- | | 铜： 17 | | 铝： 17 | | 锌： 18 | | 铅： 18 | | 锡： 18 | | 镍： 19 | | 豆油、豆粕： 19 | | 棕榈油： 20 | | 菜粕、菜油： 21 | | 棉花： 21 | | 白糖： 22 | | 苹果： 23 | | 生猪： 24 | | 鸡蛋： 24 | | 玉米&淀粉： 25 | | 原木： 25 | | 免责声明 27 | 国债： 上一交易日，国债期货收盘多数上涨，30 年期主力合约跌 0.08%报 111.190 元， 10 年期主力合约涨 0.11%报 108.035 元，5 年期主力合约涨 0.09%报 105.760 元，2 年 期主力合约涨 0.04%报 102.376 元。 公开市场方面，央行公告称，1 月 15 日以 ...

2026 年 1 月 15 日星期四 重庆市江北区金沙门路 32 号 23 层； 023-67071029 上海市浦东新区世纪大道 210 号 10 楼 1001； 021-61101854 地址： 电话： 1 市场有风险 投资需谨慎 | | | | 碳酸锂： 17 | | --- | | 铜： 17 | | 铝： 18 | | 锌： 18 | | 铅： 18 | | 锡： 19 | | 镍： 19 | | 豆油、豆粕： 20 | | 棕榈油： 21 | | 菜粕、菜油： 21 | | 棉花： 22 | | 白糖： 23 | | 苹果： 24 | | 生猪： 24 | | 鸡蛋： 25 | | 玉米&淀粉： 26 | | 原木： 26 | | 免责声明 28 | 国债： 上一交易日，国债期货收盘多数上涨，30 年期主力合约跌 0.04%报 111.270 元， 10 年期主力合约涨 0.08%报 107.930 元，5 年期主力合约涨 0.04%报 105.655 元，2 年 期主力合约持平于 102.334 元。 公开市场方面，央行公告称，1 月 14 日以固定利率、数量招标方式开展了 2408 亿 元 7 ...

2026 年 1 月 14 日星期三 重庆市江北区金沙门路 32 号 23 层； 023-67071029 上海市浦东新区世纪大道 210 号 10 楼 1001； 021-61101854 地址： 电话： 1 市场有风险 投资需谨慎 | 目录 | | --- | | 纸浆： 15 | | 碳酸锂： 16 | | --- | | 铜： 16 | | 铝： 17 | | 锌： 18 | | 铅： 18 | | 锡： 18 | | 镍： 19 | | 豆油、豆粕： 19 | | 棕榈油： 20 | | 菜粕、菜油： 21 | | 棉花： 21 | | 白糖： 22 | | 苹果： 23 | | 生猪： 24 | | 鸡蛋： 24 | | 玉米&淀粉： 25 | | 原木： 26 | | 免责声明 27 | 国债： 上一交易日，国债期货收盘多数上涨，30 年期主力合约涨 0.28%报 111.350 元， 10 年期主力合约涨 0.06%报 107.850 元，5 年期主力合约涨 0.04%报 105.625 元，2 年 期主力合约持平于 102.330 元。 公开市场方面，央行公告称，1 月 13 日以固定利率、 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The macro - economic recovery momentum is still to be strengthened, with the current national debt yield at a relatively low level. The national debt futures are expected to face certain pressure, and it is advisable to remain cautious [6][7]. - The domestic economic situation is stable, but the recovery momentum is weak. However, due to the low - level domestic asset valuations and China's economic resilience, along with the warming market sentiment and inflow of incremental funds, the volatility center of stock index futures is expected to gradually move up, and investors can consider going long at an appropriate time [9][10]. - Given the complex global trade and financial environment, the trend of "de - globalization" and "de - dollarization" is beneficial to the allocation and hedging value of gold, and central bank gold - buying supports its price. But due to the significant recent rise in precious metals and the heating up of speculative sentiment, market volatility is expected to increase significantly, and investors are advised to exit long positions and wait and see [11][12]. - For steel products like rebar and hot - rolled coil, in the medium - term, the price is dominated by industrial supply - demand logic. The demand is weak, but the supply pressure is relieved. The price may continue the weak shock. Investors can pay attention to the opportunity of going long on pullbacks and manage positions carefully [13]. - The supply - demand pattern of iron ore is expected to strengthen, and it may continue to be strong in the short - term. Investors can pay attention to the opportunity of going long on pullbacks and manage positions carefully [15]. - For coking coal and coke, the futures have rebounded strongly. The cost support for coke is strengthening, and the demand is increasing. Investors can pay attention to the opportunity of buying at low levels and manage positions carefully [17][18]. - The overall over - supply pressure of ferroalloys continues. But considering the limited downward space of costs and the reduction of short - term supply, investors can consider long positions in the low - level range [20]. - The INE crude oil has risen significantly. With geopolitical factors and changes in supply - demand data, the crude oil price is expected to continue rising. Investors can focus on the opportunity of going long on the main crude oil contract [21][22][23]. - The fuel oil price is affected by multiple factors. With the increase in crude oil prices, it is expected to strengthen. Investors can focus on the opportunity of going long on the main fuel oil contract [25][26]. - The demand in different segments of polyolefin products is uneven, showing a more prominent differentiation pattern. Investors can focus on the opportunity of going long [27][28]. - The synthetic rubber market is expected to be mainly in a strong shock, and investors should pay attention to factors such as raw material prices and downstream demand [29][30]. - The natural rubber market is expected to show a wide - range shock, with supply, demand, and inventory factors interacting [31][32]. - The PVC market may be in a strong shock in the short - term due to policy expectations, and the supply - demand situation may improve in the medium - term. However, the uncertainty of the demand side should be vigilant [33][36]. - The urea price is expected to remain in a strong shock in the short - term, driven by export demand and cost support [37][38]. - The PX market may be in a shock adjustment in the short - term, with stable spreads and profits, and support from rising crude oil prices. Investors should be cautious and pay attention to external market fluctuations [39][40]. - The PTA market may be in a shock operation in the short - term. The processing fee has rebounded, and the supply - demand situation has changed little. The long - term supply - demand expectation is good, and investors can consider cautious operation on pullbacks [41]. - The ethylene glycol market is expected to have an increase in supply and pressure on port inventory. It may fluctuate more due to macro - sentiment, and investors are advised to wait and see carefully [42][43]. - The short - fiber market may follow the raw material price in shock operation. The supply is at a relatively high level, and the terminal is digesting raw material inventory. The low inventory may provide bottom support [44]. - The bottle - chip market may follow the cost side in shock operation. There is an expected reduction in supply around the Spring Festival, and the export growth rate is increasing. However, the raw material price is uncertain, and investors should participate cautiously on pullbacks [45][46]. - The soda ash market shows off - season characteristics, but the downward space is limited. It is advisable to operate within a range in the short - term [47]. - The glass market has limited improvement in fundamentals, and the profit is low. However, the main 05 contract corresponds to the traditional real - estate peak season, and investors should pay attention to the short - term driving force from real - estate policies [48][49]. - The caustic soda market shows significant seasonal characteristics, with high production, low demand, high inventory, and low profit. It is expected to be weak in the short - term, and investors can operate within a range [50]. - The pulp market has no substantial improvement in supply - demand fundamentals, and the inventory is at a relatively high level. The futures price may return to the spot price, and investors can pay attention to short - selling opportunities at high levels [51]. - The lithium carbonate market may be in a strong shock, with a pattern of strong supply and demand, and a reduction in social inventory. External geopolitical factors also support the price [52][53]. - The copper market may be in a high - level shock, with long - term supply concerns supporting the price, but high prices suppressing short - term consumption [54][55]. - The aluminum market may be in a high - level adjustment. The supply is difficult to increase significantly, but high prices suppress demand, and inventory is accumulating [56][58]. - The zinc market may be in a shock adjustment. The supply is tightening, but demand is seasonally weak, and inventory is increasing [59][60]. - The lead market is in a tight - balance pattern with low inventory, continuing the range - bound shock [61][62]. - The tin market is expected to be strong, with tight supply and certain resilience in demand, and a reduction in refined tin inventory [63][64]. - The nickel market is in an oversupply pattern, with high inventory. Although the cost may rise, the real consumption is not optimistic, and investors should pay attention to Indonesian policies [65]. - For soybean oil and soybean meal, the supply of soybeans is relatively loose, the cost support is adjusted downward, and the demand is improving. Investors can consider long positions in the low - cost support range for soybean meal and long positions in low - level call options for soybean oil [66][67][68]. - The palm oil market may have an opportunity to go long after a pullback, with increasing export demand and expected weakening production [69][71]. - For rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil, investors can consider the opportunity to widen the spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal, and soybean oil and rapeseed oil, depending on the change in import policies [72][73]. - The cotton price is expected to be strong in the short - and long - term, with positive factors from the USDA report, tight supply expectations, and resilient demand. Investors can go long in batches on pullbacks [74][76][77]. - The upward space of the sugar price is limited in the long - term, with increasing domestic supply and strong expected production in India [78][80][81]. - The apple price is expected to be strong in the long - term, with low inventory and reduced production in the new season [82][84][85]. - The pig price is facing supply pressure in the first quarter, and investors are advised to wait and see for changes in market capital structure [86][88]. - For eggs, the supply is relatively high in January, but the supply side is improving marginally. Considering the low valuation of off - season contracts, investors can consider positive spread strategies [89][90]. - The corn and corn starch market: The domestic corn is basically in balance between production and demand, and there may be a peak of grain sales before the Spring Festival. Corn starch may follow the corn market, and investors should wait for the release of supply pressure [91][92][93]. - The log market is expected to be in a bottom - shock pattern, with relatively sufficient supply, shrinking demand, and limited downward space [94][95]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fixed - Income 3.1.1 Treasury Bonds - On the previous trading day, most treasury bond futures closed higher. The central bank conducted 86.1 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 36.1 billion yuan. The macro - economic recovery momentum needs to be strengthened, and the national debt futures are expected to face pressure [5][6]. 3.2 Equity 3.2.1 Stock Index Futures - On the previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed trends. The number of new margin trading accounts in 2025 reached a record high. The domestic economic recovery momentum is weak, but the market sentiment is warming up. The volatility center of stock index futures is expected to move up [8][9]. 3.3 Commodities 3.3.1 Precious Metals - On the previous trading day, gold and silver futures rose. The global trade and financial environment is complex, and central bank gold - buying supports the price. However, due to strong speculative sentiment, the market may be volatile [11]. 3.3.2 Base Metals - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: On the previous trading day, they rebounded slightly. The demand is weak, but the supply pressure is relieved. The price may be in a weak shock [13]. - **Iron Ore**: On the previous trading day, it fluctuated at a high level. The supply - demand pattern is expected to strengthen, and it may continue to be strong in the short - term [15]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: On the previous trading day, they rebounded strongly. The cost support for coke is strengthening, and the demand is increasing [18]. - **Ferroalloys**: On the previous trading day, manganese - silicon and silicon - iron futures rose. The overall over - supply pressure continues, but short - term supply may decrease [20]. - **Copper**: On the previous trading day, the Shanghai copper futures rose. Long - term supply concerns support the price, but high prices suppress short - term consumption [54]. - **Aluminum**: On the previous trading day, the Shanghai aluminum futures rose slightly, while the alumina futures fell. The supply is difficult to increase significantly, but high prices suppress demand, and inventory is accumulating [56]. - **Zinc**: On the previous trading day, the Shanghai zinc futures rose. The supply is tightening, but demand is seasonally weak, and inventory is increasing [59]. - **Lead**: On the previous trading day, the Shanghai lead futures fell slightly. The market is in a tight - balance pattern with low inventory [61]. - **Tin**: On the previous trading day, the Shanghai tin futures rose sharply. The supply is tight, and demand has certain resilience [63]. - **Nickel**: On the previous trading day, the Shanghai nickel futures fell slightly. The market is in an oversupply pattern, with high inventory [65]. 3.3.3 Energy - **Crude Oil**: On the previous trading day, the INE crude oil rose significantly. Geopolitical factors and supply - demand data changes may drive the price up [21]. - **Fuel Oil**: On the previous trading day, it fell significantly. Affected by multiple factors, it is expected to strengthen with the increase in crude oil prices [24][25]. 3.3.4 Chemicals - **Polyolefins**: The market sentiment is boosted, and the demand in different segments is uneven [27]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The futures rose slightly. It is expected to be in a strong shock, and factors such as raw material prices and downstream demand should be noted [29]. - **Natural Rubber**: The futures rose. It is expected to show a wide - range shock, with supply, demand, and inventory factors interacting [31]. - **PVC**: The futures rose. It may be in a strong shock in the short - term, and the supply - demand situation may improve in the medium - term [33]. - **Urea**: The futures rose slightly. It is expected to remain in a strong shock in the short - term, driven by export demand and cost support [37]. - **PX**: The futures rose. It may be in a shock adjustment in the short - term, with support from rising crude oil prices [39]. - **PTA**: The futures rose. It may be in a shock operation in the short - term, with a rebound in processing fees and little change in supply - demand [41]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The futures rose. The supply is expected to increase, and port inventory is under pressure [42]. - **Short - Fiber**: The futures rose slightly. The supply is at a relatively high level, and the terminal is digesting raw material inventory [44]. - **Bottle - Chip**: The futures rose. It may follow the cost side in shock operation, with an expected reduction in supply around the Spring Festival [45]. - **Soda Ash**: The futures rose. It shows off - season characteristics, but the downward space is limited [47]. - **Glass**: The futures fell slightly. The fundamentals have limited improvement, and the profit is low [48]. - **Caustic Soda**: The futures fell. It shows significant seasonal characteristics, with high production, low demand, high inventory, and low profit [50]. - **Pulp**: The futures fell. The supply - demand fundamentals have no substantial improvement, and the inventory is at a relatively high level [51]. 3.3.5 Agricultural Products - **Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal**: The futures rose slightly. The supply of soybeans is relatively loose, the cost support is adjusted downward, and the demand is improving [66]. - **Palm Oil**: The Malaysian palm oil rose. It may have an opportunity to go long after a pullback, with increasing export demand and expected weakening production [69]. - **Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil**: The Canadian rapeseed fell. Investors can consider the opportunity to widen the spread depending on the change in import policies [72]. - **Cotton**: The domestic cotton futures recovered after reaching a low point. The price is expected to be strong in the short - and long - term, with positive factors from the USDA report [74]. - **Sugar**: The Zhengzhou sugar futures were in a weak shock. The upward space is limited in the long - term, with increasing domestic supply and strong expected production in India [78]. - **Apple**: The domestic apple futures fluctuated. The price is expected to be strong in the long - term, with low inventory and reduced production in the new season [82]. - **Pig**: The national average pig price rose slightly. The supply is under pressure in the first quarter, and investors are advised to wait and see [86]. - **Egg**: The egg price rose. The supply is relatively high in January, but the supply side is improving marginally. Positive spread strategies can be considered [89]. - **Corn and Corn Starch**: The futures rose. The domestic corn is basically in balance between production and demand, and there may be a peak of grain sales before the Spring Festival [91]. - **Log**: The futures fell slightly. It is expected to be in a bottom - shock pattern, with relatively sufficient supply, shrinking demand, and limited downward space [94].

1. Report Investment Ratings - The report does not provide an overall investment rating for the industry 2. Core Views - The current macro - economic recovery momentum needs strengthening, and it is expected that the monetary policy will remain loose. The market risk preference has significantly increased, but different sectors have different trends and investment suggestions [6] - The domestic economic situation is stable, but the recovery momentum of the macro - economy is not strong. However, due to low asset valuations and economic resilience, the market sentiment has warmed up, and different futures varieties show various characteristics [8] 3. Summary by Category 3.1 Fixed - Income (Treasury Bonds) - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, treasury bond futures closed down across the board. The 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year main contracts fell by 0.07%, 0.02%, 0.03%, and 0.03% respectively [5] - **Policy and Data**: The central bank conducted 34 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on January 9, with a net investment of 34 billion yuan. In December 2025, China's CPI rose by 0.8% year - on - year, and PPI fell by 1.9% year - on - year [5] - **Outlook**: Treasury bond futures are expected to face some pressure, and a cautious approach is recommended [6] 3.2 Equity Index Futures - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed trends. The main contracts of CSI 300 (IF), SSE 50 (IH), CSI 500 (IC), and CSI 1000 (IM) rose by 0.71%, 0.62%, 2.99%, and 3.07% respectively [8] - **Outlook**: It is expected that the volatility center of stock index futures will gradually move up, and investors can take long positions at appropriate times [8] 3.3 Precious Metals - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of gold rose by 0.86%, and the main contract of silver rose by 1.52% [10] - **Outlook**: The global trade and financial environment is complex. The "de - globalization" and "de - dollarization" trends are beneficial to gold. However, due to the significant increase in precious metals recently and the rise in speculative sentiment, it is expected that market volatility will significantly increase. It is recommended to close long positions and wait and see [10] 3.4 Steel and Iron Ore 3.4.1 Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures declined slightly. The price of Tangshan billet was 2,980 yuan/ton, and the spot prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil in Shanghai were in certain ranges [12] - **Outlook**: In the medium term, rebar prices may continue to be weak and volatile, and hot - rolled coil may follow the same trend. Investors can look for opportunities to go long on dips and pay attention to position management [13] 3.4.2 Iron Ore - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, iron ore futures fluctuated at high levels. The spot prices of PB powder and Super Special powder were 815 yuan/ton and 705 yuan/ton respectively [15] - **Outlook**: The supply - demand pattern of the iron ore market is expected to strengthen. The futures may continue to be strong in the short term. Investors can look for opportunities to go long on dips and pay attention to position management [15] 3.5 Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures declined slightly [17] - **Outlook**: Coking coal production has recovered, and coke procurement prices have been lowered. The rebound of futures shows signs of weakness. Investors can look for opportunities to buy at low levels and pay attention to position management [17][18] 3.6 Ferroalloys - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main contracts of manganese silicon and silicon iron fell by 0.74% and 1.95% respectively. The spot prices also declined [20] - **Outlook**: Since the fourth quarter of 2025, ferroalloy production has declined, and the overall over - supply pressure continues. After a decline, investors can consider long positions in the low - level range [20] 3.7 Energy 3.7.1 Crude Oil - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, INE crude oil rose significantly due to the possible escalation of the Iranian situation [21] - **Outlook**: The United States is discussing the development strategy of Venezuelan oil, but it has received a cold response. The US President has listened to reports on military strikes against Iran. Crude oil has stabilized around $60 and is expected to rise. Investors can look for long - position opportunities in the main contract [23] 3.7.2 Fuel Oil - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, fuel oil rose significantly and closed above the 5 - day moving average [25] - **Outlook**: The decrease in Singapore fuel oil inventory is positive for prices, while the selling of Asian derivatives on Friday exerts pressure. The rising crude oil prices are expected to drive fuel oil prices up. Investors can look for long - position opportunities in the main contract [26] 3.8 Chemicals 3.8.1 Polyolefins - **Market Performance**: In the Hangzhou PP market, some quotations were raised, and in the Yuyao LLDPE market, some prices increased [28] - **Outlook**: The demand in different sectors of PP products is uneven, and the industry differentiation is more prominent. Investors can look for long - position opportunities [28] 3.8.2 Synthetic Rubber - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of synthetic rubber fell by 2.12%, and the mainstream price in Shandong was lowered [30] - **Outlook**: It is expected to be mainly strong and volatile, and attention should be paid to the price trend of butadiene, the recovery of downstream demand, and the implementation of January device maintenance [30] 3.8.3 Natural Rubber - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main contracts of natural rubber and 20 - rubber fell by 0.96% and 1.33% respectively, and the Shanghai spot price was lowered [33] - **Outlook**: It is expected to be in a wide - range volatile state in the short - term [33] 3.8.4 PVC - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of PVC fell by 0.73%, and the spot price was lowered [35] - **Outlook**: Although it is currently in the traditional demand off - season, the policy expectation may lead to a strong and volatile trend in the short - term. In the medium - term, capacity clearance and export growth may improve the supply - demand situation. It is necessary to be vigilant about the uncertainty of the demand side [35] 3.8.5 Urea - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of urea fell by 0.22%, and the price in Shandong Linyi remained stable [38] - **Outlook**: In the short - term, urea prices will remain volatile and strong, mainly driven by export demand and cost support [38] 3.8.6 PX - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of PX2603 fell by 0.06% and rose by 2.5% at night [40] - **Outlook**: In the short - term, the PXN spread and short - term profit are stable, and the PX start - up rate remains unchanged. The rising crude oil prices provide support. However, it is necessary to be cautious. PX may be mainly in a volatile adjustment state [40] 3.8.7 PTA - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of PTA2605 fell by 0.23% and rose by 2.28% at night. The spot price in East China was 5,038 yuan/ton [41] - **Outlook**: In the short - term, the PTA processing fee has rebounded to a neutral level, and the inventory remains low. The supply - demand situation has changed little. In the long - and medium - term, the supply - demand expectation is good, and the rising crude oil prices provide support [41] 3.8.8 Ethylene Glycol - **Market Performance**: The report does not provide specific previous - trading - day performance data [43] - **Outlook**: The supply of ethylene glycol is expected to increase, and the port inventory is still under pressure. It is recommended to be cautious and wait and see, and pay attention to port inventory and supply changes [43] 3.8.9 Short - Fiber - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of short - fiber 2603 fell by 0.25% and rose by 1.48% at night [45] - **Outlook**: The supply of short - fiber is expected to decrease during the Spring Festival. The export growth rate has increased, but the main logic lies in the cost side. It is necessary to be cautious, and it is expected to follow the cost side and fluctuate. Investors should be cautious and control risks [45] 3.8.10 Polyester Bottle Chips - **Market Performance**: The report does not provide specific previous - trading - day performance data [47] - **Outlook**: The load of bottle chips has slightly decreased recently, and there will be concentrated production cuts around the Spring Festival. The supply is expected to shrink. The export growth rate has increased, but the main logic lies in the cost side. It is necessary to be cautious, and it is expected to follow the cost side and fluctuate [47] 3.8.11 Soda Ash - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of 2605 closed at 1,225 yuan/ton, up 0.16% [48] - **Outlook**: The supply remains high, and the inventory reflects that the winter storage rhythm is weaker than in previous years. The current contradiction lies in the game between "strong expectation and weak reality". In the short - term, it is mainly range - bound operation [48] 3.8.12 Glass - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of 2605 closed at 1,125 yuan/ton, down 1.66% [49] - **Outlook**: The glass production capacity is gradually being reduced, but the real - estate new construction and completion areas do not bring significant positive expectations. In the short - term, it is mainly short - selling, but attention should be paid to the short - term driving force brought by real - estate policies [49] 3.8.13 Caustic Soda - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of 2603 closed at 2,211 yuan/ton, up 0.59% [51] - **Outlook**: The seasonal characteristics are significant, with high production, low demand, high inventory, and low profit. In the short - term, the price is expected to continue to be weak and stable. However, there is a possibility of price driving due to downstream capacity optimization or supply - side active production cuts. It is recommended to conduct range - bound operations and control positions [51] 3.8.14 Pulp - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of 2605 closed at 5,548 yuan/ton, up 0.58% [54] - **Outlook**: The fundamental factors are intertwined. The supply expansion news is still being released, and the inventory is at a relatively high level. The futures price is oscillating at a high level. In the absence of significant driving factors in the future supply - demand, the futures price may return to the spot price. It is recommended to pay attention to short - selling opportunities in the range - bound oscillation [54] 3.9 Non - Ferrous Metals 3.9.1 Lithium Carbonate - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of lithium carbonate rose by 0.01% to 143,420 yuan/ton [55] - **Outlook**: The cancellation of the export VAT rebate for lithium - battery products may stimulate enterprises to increase exports and inventory. The supply is in a tight balance, and the demand is strong. The social inventory is gradually decreasing. However, the continuous rise may over - draw future expectations, and it is necessary to operate cautiously [55] 3.9.2 Copper, Aluminum, Zinc, Lead - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, Shanghai copper (presumably a wrong description here, should be related to the respective metals) fluctuated slightly and closed at the 60 - day level [57][58][59][60] - **Outlook**: The report does not provide specific outlooks for these four metals 3.9.3 Tin - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of Shanghai tin rose by 3.15% to 359,980 yuan/ton [61] - **Outlook**: Due to geopolitical conflicts, the supply is generally tight, and the demand shows certain resilience. The refined tin inventory is decreasing. The tin price has support at the bottom, but there may be a short - term correction [61] 3.9.4 Nickel - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of Shanghai nickel rose by 2.78% to 140,280 yuan/ton [63] - **Outlook**: Due to the anti - globalization trend and geopolitical conflicts, the cost of nickel is expected to rise, but the real - world consumption is still not optimistic, and the primary nickel is still in an oversupply situation. Attention should be paid to relevant Indonesian policies [63] 3.10 Agricultural Products 3.10.1 Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of soybean meal fell by 0.64% to 2,786 yuan/ton, and the main contract of soybean oil rose by 0.33% to 7,994 yuan/ton [64] - **Outlook**: The demand for soybean meal continues to grow moderately, and the demand for soybean oil has slightly improved. There is a certain supply pressure. Investors can look for long - position opportunities in the low - cost support range for soybean meal and long - position opportunities for call options in the low - level range for soybean oil [64] 3.10.2 Palm Oil - **Market Performance**: Malaysian palm oil fell on Friday due to profit - taking but recorded a weekly increase [66] - **Outlook**: It is recommended to consider long - position opportunities after a correction [67] 3.10.3 Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - **Market Performance**: Canadian rapeseed fell on Friday but recorded a strong weekly increase [68] - **Outlook**: Attention should be paid to the changes in the import trade policy of Canadian rapeseed products. If the import of Canadian rapeseed products increases, investors can consider opportunities to expand the spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal and between soybean oil and rapeseed oil in the far - month contracts [68] 3.10.4 Cotton - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, domestic Zheng cotton significantly reduced positions and fell for three consecutive days [70] - **Outlook**: In the long - and medium - term, cotton prices are expected to be strong, but the short - term increase has been too large, and the domestic valuation is relatively high compared with the international market. It is recommended to buy on dips in batches after a correction [70] 3.10.5 Sugar - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, Zheng sugar was weakly volatile, and the international raw sugar slightly fell after a bottom - hunting rebound [74] - **Outlook**: Abroad, the focus is on the production in the Northern Hemisphere, especially India's production. Domestically, there is pressure from both domestic new sugar and imported sugar. After a significant rebound in the market, the upward space may be limited [75] 3.10.6 Apples - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, domestic apple futures were strongly volatile [78] - **Outlook**: The inventory this year is at a low level in recent years, and the apple production and quality have declined. It is expected that the prices will be strong in the long - and medium - term [78] 3.10.7 Pigs - **Market Performance**: The national average price of live pigs was 12.70 yuan/kg, up 0.12 yuan from the previous day. The main contract fell by 0.08% to 11,770 yuan/ton [82] - **Outlook**: In the first quarter, the supply may still face great pressure. It is recommended to wait and see and wait for changes in the market capital structure [82] 3.10.8 Eggs - **Market Performance**: The average prices in the main production and sales areas remained unchanged. The main contract rose by 0.46% to 3,040 yuan/500 kg [84] - **Outlook**: In January, the egg supply may remain at a relatively high

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various financial products including bonds, stocks, precious metals, commodities, and agricultural products. It offers short - and medium - term outlooks and investment strategies for each product based on market data, macro - economic conditions, and industry - specific factors [5][7][10]. Summary by Product Categories Bonds (Treasury Bonds) - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, treasury bond futures closed higher across the board, with the 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year contracts rising by 0.37%, 0.15%, 0.09%, and 0.02% respectively [5]. - **Macro - economic Situation**: Current macro - data is stable, but the economic recovery momentum needs strengthening. Monetary policy is expected to remain loose [5]. - **Outlook and Strategy**: Treasury bond futures are expected to face some pressure, and a cautious approach is recommended [5][6]. Stocks (Stock Index Futures) - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed results, with the CSI 300 and SSE 50 futures falling, while the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 futures rising [7]. - **Industry News**: There are issues of blind construction and irrational competition in the power and energy storage battery industry, which need to be regulated [7]. - **Macro - economic Situation**: The domestic economy is stable, but the recovery momentum is weak, and corporate profit growth is low. However, asset valuations are low, and the economy has resilience. Market sentiment has improved, and incremental funds are entering the market [8]. - **Outlook and Strategy**: The volatility center of stock index futures is expected to gradually rise, and investors can consider taking long positions at appropriate times [8][9]. Precious Metals - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, gold and silver futures declined, with gold falling by 0.10% and silver by 4.35% [10]. - **Industry News**: US December lay - off data and Eurozone economic sentiment index were released [10]. - **Macro - economic Situation**: The global trade and financial environment is complex, which is beneficial for the allocation and hedging value of gold. However, recent sharp price increases have led to a significant rise in speculative sentiment [10]. - **Outlook and Strategy**: Market volatility is expected to increase significantly, and investors are advised to exit long positions and wait and see [10][11]. Commodities Steel Products (Rebar, Hot - Rolled Coil) - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures rebounded but faced resistance [12]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: In the medium term, prices are determined by supply - demand. Demand is weak due to the real - estate downturn and approaching off - season. Supply pressure has eased as production is at a low level, and inventory is slightly higher than last year but being consumed quickly [12]. - **Outlook and Strategy**: Prices may continue to oscillate weakly. Investors can consider long positions on pull - backs with proper position management [12][13]. Iron Ore - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, iron ore futures had a slight correction [14]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: National hot - metal production has declined in the past two months but may recover. Imports increased in the first 11 months of 2025, and domestic production is lower than in 2024. Port inventory is at a five - year high [14]. - **Outlook and Strategy**: The supply - demand pattern is expected to strengthen. Futures may continue to be strong in the short term. Investors can consider long positions on pull - backs with proper position management [14][15]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures rose and then fell [16]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: Coking coal production has increased as mines resume production, but demand from coke enterprises is weak. Coke prices have been lowered for the fourth time, and demand from steel mills is weak due to low profits [17]. - **Outlook and Strategy**: The rebound shows signs of fatigue. Investors can consider long positions at low levels with proper position management [17][18]. Ferroalloys - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, manganese - silicon and silicon - iron futures declined, with manganese - silicon falling by 1.77% and silicon - iron by 3.18% [19]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: Manganese ore supply is recovering, and port inventory is low. Cost is fluctuating within a narrow range. Production of rebar by sample steel mills is lower than in 2024, and ferroalloy production is at a low level in the past five years. Supply is still abundant, and inventory is increasing [19]. - **Outlook and Strategy**: Overall oversupply persists. Investors can consider exiting long positions on consecutive rallies and taking long positions at low levels [20]. Crude Oil - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, INE crude oil dropped significantly due to the US plan to sell Venezuelan oil [21]. - **Industry News**: There are multiple news related to the US's actions against Venezuela's oil industry [21]. - **Outlook and Strategy**: The price is under pressure. Investors are advised to wait and see [21][22]. Fuel Oil - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, fuel oil fluctuated slightly and closed above the 5 - day moving average [23]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: Singapore's fuel oil inventory decreased, which is positive for prices. However, the decline in crude oil prices may drag down fuel oil prices [23][25]. - **Outlook and Strategy**: Investors are advised to wait and see [26]. Polyolefins - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the PP market in Hangzhou saw low - price replenishment, and the LLDPE market in Yuyao rose [27]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: Production enterprises are reducing inventory, and market prices have stopped falling and rebounded, which is beneficial for price stability [27]. - **Outlook and Strategy**: Investors can consider long positions [28]. Synthetic Rubber - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, synthetic rubber futures rose by 1.83% [29]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: The price increase was supported by rising butadiene prices and high device operating rates. However, downstream demand is weak, and inventory turnover days have increased [29]. - **Outlook and Strategy**: The market is expected to oscillate strongly [29][31]. Natural Rubber - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, natural rubber futures declined slightly [32]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: Domestic supply has stopped, but overseas pressure remains. Demand from tire enterprises is weak, and inventory is increasing seasonally. The inclusion of 20 - rubber substitutes in physical delivery has expanded the supply [32]. - **Outlook and Strategy**: The market is expected to oscillate [32][33]. PVC - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, PVC futures fell by 0.99% [34]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: It is currently the off - season for PVC. Supply pressure is increasing as production has increased in December and maintenance losses have decreased. Demand is weak, and corporate profits are compressed [34]. - **Outlook and Strategy**: The market may oscillate strongly in the short term, and the supply - demand situation may improve in the medium term. However, demand uncertainty should be noted [34][35]. Urea - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, urea futures rose by 0.45% [36]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: Supply has increased slightly, and demand from the agricultural sector is expected to grow as the top - dressing season approaches. Industrial demand is weak. Indian urea tender prices have increased, boosting market sentiment. Corporate inventory has decreased [36]. - **Outlook and Strategy**: The price is expected to oscillate strongly [36][37]. PX - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, PX futures declined by 1.94% [38]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: PX operating rate is stable, and some plants have restart or maintenance plans. The PXN spread and short - term profit are stable [38]. - **Macro - economic Situation**: Geopolitical uncertainties may lead to adjustments in crude oil prices [38]. - **Outlook and Strategy**: PX may oscillate in the short term. Investors should be cautious and pay attention to macro - policies and fundamental changes [38][39]. PTA - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, PTA futures fell by 1.05% [40]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: PTA operating rate has increased slightly, and polyester demand is stable. PTA exports have increased significantly in November. Processing fees have adjusted to a neutral level [40]. - **Macro - economic Situation**: Crude oil prices may be affected by geopolitical factors [40]. - **Outlook and Strategy**: PTA may oscillate in the short term. Investors should operate cautiously and pay attention to oil price changes [40]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, ethylene glycol futures fell by 0.21% [41]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: The operating rate has increased, and port inventory is under pressure. The planned arrival of goods at the port has increased. Downstream demand support has weakened slightly [41][42]. - **Outlook and Strategy**: Investors are advised to wait and see and pay attention to port inventory and supply changes [42]. Short - Fiber - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, short - fiber futures fell by 0.86% [43]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: Supply is at a relatively high level, and terminal factories are digesting raw material inventory. Short - fiber inventory is low, providing some support. The market is mainly driven by cost [43]. - **Outlook and Strategy**: Short - fiber may oscillate following raw material prices. Investors should control risks and pay attention to cost changes and macro - policy adjustments [43]. Bottle - Chip - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, bottle - chip futures fell by 0.59% [44]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: The operating rate has decreased slightly, and there are plans for concentrated production cuts around the Spring Festival. Exports have increased. The market is mainly driven by cost [44][45]. - **Macro - economic Situation**: Raw material prices may be affected by geopolitical factors [45]. - **Outlook and Strategy**: Bottle - chip may oscillate following cost. Investors should be cautious and pay attention to the implementation of maintenance plans [45]. Carbonate Lithium - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, carbonate lithium futures rose by 2.46% [46]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: Production is at a high level, and demand from the energy storage and power battery sectors is improving. Social inventory is decreasing [46]. - **Outlook and Strategy**: The price is supported in the short term, but investors should operate cautiously as it may be affected by news [46]. Copper - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, copper futures fell by 1.61% [47]. - **Industry News**: There are labor disputes at a Chilean copper mine and delays in an Ecuadorian copper mine project [48]. - **Macro - economic Situation**: US economic data is mixed, and there are geopolitical risks. China has introduced policies for equipment renewal and consumer goods replacement [48]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: The copper concentrate processing fee for the first quarter of next year has declined, and COMEX copper inventory is increasing. Domestic consumption is in the off - season, and social inventory is rising [48]. - **Outlook and Strategy**: Copper prices are at a high level, but investors should be cautious about chasing the price due to weak demand and high - price suppression [48][49]. Aluminum - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, aluminum and alumina futures declined, with aluminum falling by 1.17% and alumina by 2.95% [50]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: The price of imported ore from Guinea has decreased, and the supply of alumina is in excess. Aluminum production is stable, but the proportion of molten aluminum has decreased. Aluminum processing enterprise operating rates have declined [50]. - **Industry News**: The National Development and Reform Commission plans to upgrade the alumina industry [50]. - **Outlook and Strategy**: Alumina prices may rebound, but there is a risk of a decline. Aluminum prices are at a high level, but the upward space is limited [50][51]. Zinc - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, zinc futures fell by 1.02% [52]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: The domestic zinc concentrate processing fee has fallen below the smelting cost, and refined zinc production is likely to decrease. Consumption is in the off - season, but there is still rigid demand. Overseas supply has improved [52]. - **Outlook and Strategy**: Zinc prices have risen, but investors should be cautious about chasing the price due to the approaching off - season and high - price suppression [52][53]. Lead - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, lead futures fell by 1.31% [54]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: Supply is weak due to maintenance and environmental regulations. Consumption is in the off - season, and inventory is low [54]. - **Outlook and Strategy**: Lead prices are expected to oscillate within a range [54][55]. Tin - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, tin futures fell by 1.53% [56]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: Supply is tight due to geopolitical conflicts, slow复产 of mines in Wa State, and strict crackdown on illegal mines in Indonesia. Demand has some resilience supported by emerging industries. Inventory is decreasing [56]. - **Outlook and Strategy**: Tin prices are supported, but there may be short - term corrections. Investors should control risks [56][57]. Nickel - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, nickel futures fell by 4.48% [58]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: Indonesia has adjusted its nickel ore quota and may tax associated resources. Nickel production costs are expected to rise. Supply is affected by the crackdown on illegal mines and the rainy season in the Philippines. Demand is weak as stainless steel is in the off - season and downstream consumption is sluggish. Inventory is relatively high [58]. - **Outlook and Strategy**: First - grade nickel is in excess. Investors should pay attention to Indonesian policies [58]. Agricultural Products Soybean Meal and Soybean Oil - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, soybean meal futures fell by 0.32%, and soybean oil futures rose by 0.20% [59]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: Brazilian soybean planting is almost complete, and US soybean export progress is slow. Oil mill soybean crushing volume has decreased, and inventory pressure is still high. Soybean meal demand is growing moderately, and soybean oil demand has slightly improved [59][60]. - **Outlook and Strategy**: Investors can consider long positions in soybean meal at low - cost support levels and long positions in soybean oil call options at low levels [60]. Palm Oil - **Market Performance**: Malaysian palm oil has risen for two consecutive months [61]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: Indonesia may increase the palm oil export tax, which supports prices, but inventory is expected to increase. Chinese palm oil imports have increased significantly in November, and inventory is at a medium level in the past seven years [61]. - **Outlook and Strategy**: Investors can consider long positions after pull - backs [62]. Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - **Market Performance**: Canadian rapeseed prices have continued to rise [63]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: There are discussions about Canadian farmers' planting plans. Chinese rapeseed and rapeseed oil imports have shown different trends in November. Rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil inventories are at different levels in the past seven years [63]. - **Industry News**: There will be trade negotiations between the US and Canada, and the Canadian Prime Minister will visit China [63]. - **Outlook and Strategy**: Investors can consider widening the spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal and between soybean oil and rapeseed oil if Canadian rapeseed imports increase [63][64]. Cotton - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, domestic cotton futures fell significantly due to profit - taking [65]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: Domestic cotton production is expected to increase slightly, and the US production forecast has also increased. Global production is expected to decrease slightly. Cotton exports in November showed mixed results. Domestic cotton acquisition is almost complete, and future planting area is expected to decrease [65][66]. - **Outlook and Strategy**: Cotton prices are expected to be strong in the medium - to - long term [67][68]. Sugar - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, Zhengzhou sugar futures rebounded, and overseas raw sugar futures fluctuated slightly [69]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: In the 2025/26 sugar - making season, domestic sugar production in Guangxi decreased in December. Indian sugar production is expected to increase significantly, and there will be a large inventory surplus. Chinese sugar imports in November decreased year - on - year but increased in the first 11 months [69][70]. - **Outlook and Strategy**: The upward space for sugar prices may be limited after the significant rebound [71][72]. Apple - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, domestic apple futures oscillated [73]. - **Supply - Demand Situation

2026 年 1 月 7 日星期三 重庆市江北区金沙门路 32 号 23 层； 023-67071029 上海市浦东新区世纪大道 210 号 10 楼 1001； 021-61101854 地址： 电话： 1 市场有风险 投资需谨慎 | | | | 铅： | | 15 | | --- | --- | --- | | 锡： | | 16 | | 镍： | | 16 | | 豆油、豆粕： | | 17 | | 棕榈油： | | 17 | | 菜粕、菜油： | | 18 | | 棉花： | | 19 | | 白糖： | | 20 | | 苹果： | | 21 | | 生猪： | | 21 | | 鸡蛋： | | 22 | | 玉米&淀粉： | | 22 | | 免责声明 | | 24 | 上一交易日，国债期货收盘全线下跌，30 年期主力合约跌 0.31%报 110.930 元， 10 年期主力合约跌 0.13%报 107.700 元，5 年期主力合约跌 0.11%报 105.570 元，2 年 期主力合约跌 0.05%报 102.366 元。 公开市场方面，央行公告称，1 月 6 日以固定利率、数量招标方式开展了 ...