Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - The macro - economic recovery momentum needs to be strengthened, and monetary policy is expected to remain loose. Different commodities have different market trends and investment strategies due to their own supply - demand relationships and external factors [6][22]. Summary by Commodity Bonds - Last trading day, bond futures closed down across the board. The macro - economic recovery momentum needs to be strengthened, and it is expected that there will be no trending bond futures market, so a certain degree of caution is required [5][6]. Stock Index Futures - Last trading day, stock index futures showed mixed performance. Although the domestic economy is stable, the recovery momentum is weak. However, domestic asset valuations are low, and the market sentiment has increased recently. It is expected that the market volatility will increase, and existing long positions can be gradually liquidated for profit [8]. Precious Metals - Last trading day, precious metal futures declined. The current global trade and financial environment is complex, which is beneficial to the allocation and hedging value of gold. But the recent increase in precious metals has been large, and previous long positions can be appropriately closed for profit [10]. Steel (Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil) - Last trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures oscillated weakly. In the medium - term, the steel price is dominated by the industrial supply - demand logic. The demand for rebar is still declining year - on - year, and the inventory pressure has increased significantly. It is expected that the rebar price will remain weak in the medium - term, and hot - rolled coil may follow the same trend. Investors can focus on shorting opportunities at high levels during rebounds [12][13]. Iron Ore - Last trading day, iron ore futures slightly corrected. In the short - term, the supply - demand pattern still supports the price, but it may weaken in the medium - term. Technically, it may oscillate weakly in the short - term. Investors can focus on buying opportunities during corrections [15]. Coking Coal and Coke - Last trading day, coking coal and coke futures rose significantly. The supply pressure of coking coal is not large, and the demand for coke remains high. Technically, they may continue to oscillate in the short - term. Investors can focus on buying opportunities during corrections [17][18]. Ferroalloys - Last trading day, ferroalloy futures rose slightly. The current supply of ferroalloys is still in excess in the short - term, but the cost has increased at a low level. After a decline, investors can consider long positions at low levels when the spot market falls into a loss again [20][21]. Crude Oil - Last trading day, INE crude oil oscillated downward due to concerns about supply surplus. Although the Baker Hughes rig count has increased, the increase in US crude oil production is still challenging. Geopolitical risks have eased, which is negative for crude oil prices, but there is some support near the integer level. Investors can focus on long - buying opportunities for the main crude oil contract [22][23]. Fuel Oil - Last trading day, fuel oil slightly oscillated and remained near recent lows. The Singapore fuel oil sales declined in September, indicating weak consumption. The main fuel oil contract strategy is to widen the spread between high - and low - sulfur fuel oils [24][26]. Synthetic Rubber - Last trading day, synthetic rubber futures declined. In the short - term, the butadiene rubber market will maintain a weak and wide - range oscillation. The market may stop falling and rebound due to supply factors. Investors should pay attention to the raw material market and supply changes [27]. Natural Rubber - Last trading day, natural rubber futures declined. Affected by the Sino - US trade friction, the overall sentiment of bulk commodities is bearish. The rubber price may follow the macro - led market. Investors can focus on long - buying opportunities [29][31]. PVC - Last trading day, PVC futures declined. The current oversupply situation of PVC continues, but the downward space may be limited. After the festival, investors should focus on exports and supply reduction. The main strategy is to pay attention to supply - side changes [32][34]. Urea - Last trading day, urea futures closed flat. Last week, the decline of urea stopped and the price rebounded slightly. It is expected to fluctuate narrowly this week. The supply has increased, and the demand has shown some improvement. The downward space is limited [35][37]. PX - Last trading day, PX futures declined. In the short - term, the supply - demand balance of PX has become looser. The PXN spread is relatively strong, but the cost is weak and the demand support is insufficient. PX may adjust weakly in an oscillatory manner. Investors should control their positions and pay attention to crude oil and macro - policy changes [38]. PTA - Last trading day, PTA futures declined. In the short - term, the PTA processing fee has dropped significantly, and the inventory is at a low level with some support at the bottom. However, the demand improvement is limited, and the external crude oil price is weakly adjusted. PTA may oscillate. Investors should be cautious, control risks, and pay attention to oil price changes [39][40]. Ethylene Glycol - Last trading day, ethylene glycol futures declined. Recently, the supply has increased, the inventory has continued to accumulate, the demand improvement is limited, and the cost of crude oil is weak. Ethylene glycol may oscillate weakly in the short - term. Investors should pay attention to port inventory and import changes [41]. Short - Fiber - Last trading day, short - fiber futures declined. In the short - term, the short - fiber supply remains at a relatively high level, the demand is average, the supply - demand contradiction is not significant, but the cost support is weak. It may oscillate following the cost. Investors should control risks and pay attention to cost changes and macro - policy adjustments [42][43]. Bottle Chips - Last trading day, bottle - chip futures declined. Recently, the raw material price has been weakly adjusted in an oscillatory manner, the bottle - chip load has slightly increased, and the export growth has slowed down. It is expected to oscillate following the cost. Investors should control risks [44]. Lithium Carbonate - Last trading day, lithium carbonate futures declined. The supply of lithium carbonate is at a high level, and the demand from the energy storage and power battery sectors has improved. The social inventory is gradually being depleted. Investors should pay attention to the sustainability of consumption [45]. Copper - Last trading day, Shanghai copper oscillated upward due to the easing of Sino - US tensions. The dollar index is at a phased low, and copper prices are strongly adjusted at a high level. The reopening of the Indonesian copper mine has been delayed, and the Sino - US negotiation has improved again, which supports copper prices. The main Shanghai copper contract can be temporarily observed [46][48]. Tin - Last trading day, tin futures rose. The supply of tin is generally tight, and the demand shows some resilience. The refined tin inventory is further depleted. It is expected that the tin price will oscillate strongly [49]. Nickel - Last trading day, nickel futures rose. The market is worried about the supply due to the change in the RKAB approval in Indonesia. The mine price has weakened, and the high - grade nickel ore is still in short supply. The stainless - steel consumption is still weak, and the primary nickel is in an oversupply situation. It is expected that the nickel price will oscillate [51][52]. Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - Last trading day, soybean meal and soybean oil futures rose. The domestic soybean arrival volume is high, and the oil - mill crushing continues to be in loss. The Brazilian soybean arrival price has slightly declined, providing some cost support. New - season US soybeans are being harvested, which may bring some short - term pressure. After the adjustment of soybean meal, investors can consider long - call options in the support range. Soybean oil is slightly stronger than soybean meal, but the supply - demand is weak, so it is advisable to temporarily observe [54][55]. Palm Oil - The Malaysian palm oil market was closed. The Malaysian palm oil inventory in September was higher than expected. The export volume from October 1 - 20 increased compared with the previous month. The domestic palm oil inventory is at a medium level in the past 7 years. Investors can consider a long - biased strategy during corrections [56][57]. Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - Canadian rapeseed futures closed down. The domestic rapeseed inventory has decreased, the rapeseed meal inventory has increased, and the rapeseed oil inventory has decreased. The main strategy for rapeseed oil is to consider a long - biased strategy during corrections [58][59]. Cotton - Last trading day, domestic Zhengzhou cotton oscillated upward due to the improvement of Sino - US relations. The new - season domestic cotton is expected to have a bumper harvest, and the cotton price is under pressure from hedging and harvesting. It is expected that the cotton price will remain under pressure [60][63]. Sugar - Last trading day, Zhengzhou sugar oscillated at a low level. The Brazilian sugar production slightly exceeded expectations. The global sugar supply is expected to be in surplus, which restricts the sugar price rebound. The domestic northern region has started sugar production, and the import volume in the fourth quarter is expected to decline. It is advisable to observe [64][66]. Apples - Last trading day, domestic apple futures rose significantly. The late - maturing apples are of poor quality this year, and the opening price is higher than last year. It is advisable to observe [67][68]. Pigs - Yesterday, the national average pig price rose. The supply is expected to increase in the second half of October. After short - term profit - taking of short positions, investors can temporarily observe and wait for short - selling opportunities on rebounds. The arbitrage strategy can consider reverse arbitrage [69][71]. Eggs - Last trading day, the average egg price in the main production and sales areas declined. The egg supply is expected to increase year - on - year in October, and the consumption may be lower than expected. Short positions can be held [72][73]. Corn and Corn Starch - Last trading day, corn and corn - starch futures rose. The new - season corn harvest is advancing, and the corn price may be under pressure. The corn - starch production and demand are weak, and the inventory is high. It may follow the corn market. It is advisable to observe [74][76].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The macro - data in September were mixed, and the recovery momentum needed to be strengthened. The domestic economic recovery couldn't be achieved overnight, and the economy showed a state of having a bottom but lacking upward momentum. Macroeconomic policies should increase support to boost market confidence. "Promoting domestic demand and combating involution" would be important long - term policy focuses. The financial market was in a state of "weak reality, strong expectation", and in 2025, the macro - economy and asset prices were expected to continue the upward - repair trend [3][38]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Manufacturing PMI Rebounded Month - on - Month but Remained Below the Threshold - In September, the manufacturing PMI was 49.8%, up 0.4 percentage points from the previous month. Large - scale enterprises' PMI was 51.0%, up 0.2 percentage points; medium - sized enterprises' PMI was 48.8%, down 0.1 percentage points; small - sized enterprises' PMI was 48.2%, up 1.6 percentage points. Among the 5 sub - indexes, the production index and supplier delivery time index were above the threshold, while the new order index, raw material inventory index, and employment index were below it [4]. - The non - manufacturing business activity index in September was 50.0%, down 0.3 percentage points from the previous month. The construction industry's business activity index was 49.3%, up 0.2 percentage points, and the service industry's was 50.1%, down 0.4 percentage points. Overall, the manufacturing was still below the threshold, indicating low prosperity, significant demand contraction, and insufficient economic recovery momentum [7]. 2. In September, CPI Declined 0.3% Year - on - Year and PPI Fell 2.9% Year - on - Year, Both Showing Improvement - In September 2025, the national CPI decreased 0.3% year - on - year. The average CPI from January to September was 0.1% lower than the same period last year. The CPI increased 0.1% month - on - month. Food prices decreased 4.4% year - on - year and increased 0.7% month - on - month [8][9]. - In September, the national PPI decreased 2.3% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing by 0.6 percentage points compared to the previous month, and remained flat month - on - month. The average PPI from January to September was 2.8% lower than the same period last year. Industries such as coal, ferrous metals, and petrochemicals had large year - on - year declines, dragging down the PPI [11]. 3. In September, Imports and Exports Maintained High Growth Rates - In September, China's total import and export volume was $566.68 billion, a year - on - year increase of 7.9%. Exports were $328.57 billion, up 8.3% year - on - year, and imports were $238.12 billion, up 7.4% year - on - year. The trade surplus was $90.45 billion, an increase of $8.69 billion compared to the same period last year [13]. - In terms of countries, in September, China's exports to the US were $34.308 billion, with a year - on - year growth rate of - 16.1%; exports to the EU were $49.22 billion, with a growth rate of 7.6%; exports to ASEAN countries were $58.235 billion, up 16.9% year - on - year; and exports to Japan were $13.435 billion, with a year - on - year growth rate of 6.6%. Exports to ASEAN were gradually replacing those to the US [15]. - Since the second quarter, exports have been stronger than expected, showing strong resilience. In 2025, exports were likely to remain strong. The real risk for China's foreign trade was the potential decline in demand due to the increased risk of a US economic recession and the slowdown of the global economy [16]. 4. Credit Demand was Weak, and the Growth Rates of M1 and M2 Further Increased - At the end of September 2025, the stock of social financing scale was 437.08 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8.7%. The balance of RMB loans to the real economy was 267.03 trillion yuan, up 6.4% year - on - year. The balance of foreign - currency loans to the real economy was 1.18 trillion yuan, down 18% year - on - year [18]. - In the first three quarters of 2025, the cumulative increase in social financing scale was 30.09 trillion yuan, 4.42 trillion yuan more than the same period last year. The increase in RMB loans to the real economy was 14.54 trillion yuan, 851.2 billion yuan less than the same period last year [18]. - In terms of residents' credit in September, short - term loans increased by 142.1 billion yuan, 127.9 billion yuan less than the same period last year; medium - and long - term loans increased by 250 billion yuan, 20 billion yuan more than the same period last year. In terms of enterprises' credit, short - term loans increased by 710 billion yuan, 250 billion yuan more than the same period last year; medium - and long - term loans increased by 910 billion yuan, 50 billion yuan less than the same period last year; bill financing decreased by 402.6 billion yuan, 471.2 billion yuan less than the same period last year [19][21]. - At the end of September, the balance of broad - money (M2) was 335.38 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8.4%. The balance of narrow - money (M1) was 113.15 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 7.2%. The M1 - M2 gap narrowed to - 1.2%, indicating an improvement in macro - liquidity [22]. 5. Industrial Production Accelerated, while Consumption and Investment Growth Rates Continued to Decline - In September, the value - added of industrial enterprises above the designated size increased by 6.5% year - on - year, and 0.64% month - on - month. From January to September, it increased by 6.2% year - on - year [25]. - In September, the total retail sales of consumer goods were 4,197.1 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.0%. From January to September, the total retail sales of consumer goods were 36,587.7 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.5%. The consumption growth rate further declined in September, affected by policies and subsidy withdrawal, as well as the drop in oil prices [25][26]. - From January to September 2025, the national fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) was 37,153.5 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 0.5%. Private fixed - asset investment decreased by 3.1% year - on - year. The growth rates of manufacturing investment, infrastructure investment, and real - estate development investment continued to decline [28]. 6. The Growth Rate of Real - Estate Sales Continued to Decline and was Moving Towards Stabilization - From January to September, the sales area of newly - built commercial housing was 658.35 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 5.5%; the sales volume was 6,304 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 7.9%. In September, the growth rates of real - estate sales volume and area continued to decline, and the real - estate market was still in the adjustment stage [30]. - From January to September, the construction area of real - estate development enterprises was 6.4858 billion square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 9.4%. The new - construction area was 453.99 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 18.9%. The completed area was 311.29 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 15.3% [32]. - In September, the real - estate market continued the downward trend since the second and third quarters. However, the year - on - year decline in the sales area and volume of commercial housing was narrowing, and the inventory - reduction effect was emerging. The real - estate market was moving towards stabilization. The year - on - year decline in the sales area and volume of commercial housing would further narrow as the base decreased [34]. - At the end of September, the unsold area of commercial housing was 759.28 million square meters, 2.41 million square meters less than at the end of August. The real - estate development climate index in September was 92.78, showing a slight decline month - on - month. There was still room for further strengthening of real - estate policies, and the "market bottom" of this real - estate downward cycle was emerging. The first half of 2026 was expected to be a critical period for the real - estate market to stabilize [35][36][37].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Macroeconomic Outlook**: The current macro - data remains stable, but the macro - economic recovery momentum needs to be strengthened. Monetary policy is expected to remain loose. The market risk preference has significantly increased [6]. - **Overall Market**: Different sectors show diverse trends. Some sectors are expected to have no clear trend, some may experience increased volatility, and others may face supply - demand imbalances affecting their prices. 3. Summary by Commodity Bonds - **Performance**: On the previous trading day, most Treasury bond futures closed down. The 30 - year and 10 - year main contracts fell by 0.14% and 0.06% respectively [5]. - **Outlook**: It is expected that there will be no trend - based market for Treasury bond futures, and caution should be maintained [6][7]. Stock Index Futures - **Performance**: On the previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed results. The CSI 300 and SSE 50 futures rose, while the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 futures fell [8]. - **Outlook**: The market is expected to have increased volatility. Existing long positions can be gradually closed to take profits [10][11]. Precious Metals - **Performance**: Gold and silver futures rose on the previous trading day, with gold up 0.63% and silver up 0.43% [12]. - **Outlook**: The rise has been significant, and previous long positions can be appropriately closed for profit - taking [13][14]. Steel Products (Rebar, Hot - Rolled Coil) - **Performance**: Rebar and hot - rolled coil futures fluctuated weakly on the previous trading day [15]. - **Outlook**: The mid - term weakness of rebar prices may be difficult to change. The trend of hot - rolled coils may be similar. Investors can consider short - selling at high levels during rebounds, with attention to position management [16]. Iron Ore - **Performance**: Iron ore futures slightly corrected on the previous trading day [18]. - **Outlook**: The short - term supply - demand pattern supports prices, but it may weaken in the medium term. Investors can consider buying on dips, with light positions [18][19]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Performance**: Coking coal and coke futures rebounded significantly on the previous trading day [20]. - **Outlook**: They may continue to fluctuate in the short term. Investors can consider buying on dips, with light positions [21][22]. Ferroalloys - **Performance**: Manganese silicon futures fell 0.21%, and silicon iron futures rose 1.60% on the previous trading day [23]. - **Outlook**: In the short term, supply may remain in excess. After a decline, investors can consider long positions when the spot market falls into a loss zone [24]. Crude Oil - **Performance**: INE crude oil slightly rebounded on the previous trading day [25]. - **Outlook**: The CFTC data shows that US fund managers are bearish on the future of crude oil. The main contract should be temporarily observed [26][27]. Fuel Oil - **Performance**: Fuel oil fluctuated upward on the previous trading day, moving away from recent lows [28]. - **Outlook**: Singapore's fuel oil sales decreased in September, but the war in Ukraine supports prices. Investors can look for long - trading opportunities [29][30]. Synthetic Rubber - **Performance**: Synthetic rubber futures rose 3.05% on the previous trading day [31]. - **Outlook**: It is expected to operate in a fluctuating manner [32]. Natural Rubber - **Performance**: Natural rubber futures rose on the previous trading day, with the main contract up 0.27% and 20 - grade rubber up 1.90% [33]. - **Outlook**: After the holiday, rubber prices are expected to stabilize and rebound. Investors can look for long - trading opportunities [34][35]. PVC - **Performance**: PVC futures rose 1% on the previous trading day [36]. - **Outlook**: The current supply - demand imbalance persists, but the downward space may be limited. Attention should be paid to changes on the supply side [36][39]. Urea - **Performance**: Urea futures closed flat on the previous trading day [40]. - **Outlook**: The downward space is limited. Attention should be paid to exports and cost changes [40][42]. PX - **Performance**: PX futures rose 1.27% on the previous trading day [43]. - **Outlook**: In the short term, the supply - demand balance may loosen, and it may adjust weakly in a fluctuating manner. Attention should be paid to the PXN spread and macro - policies [43]. PTA - **Performance**: PTA futures rose 1% on the previous trading day [44]. - **Outlook**: It may operate in a fluctuating manner in the short term. Caution should be exercised, and attention should be paid to oil prices [45]. Ethylene Glycol - **Performance**: Ethylene glycol futures rose 1.01% on the previous trading day [46]. - **Outlook**: It may operate weakly in a fluctuating manner in the short term. Attention should be paid to port inventory and imports [46]. Short - Fiber - **Performance**: Short - fiber futures rose 0.86% on the previous trading day [47]. - **Outlook**: It may operate following cost fluctuations in the short term. Attention should be paid to costs and macro - policies [48][49]. Bottle Chips - **Performance**: Bottle - chip futures rose 0.9% on the previous trading day [50]. - **Outlook**: It is expected to operate following cost fluctuations. Risk control is necessary [50]. Lithium Carbonate - **Performance**: Lithium carbonate futures rose 2.52% on the previous trading day [51]. - **Outlook**: In the short term, it may return to a supply - demand surplus situation, and prices may weaken. Attention should be paid to consumption sustainability [51]. Copper - **Performance**: Shanghai copper futures fluctuated downward on the previous trading day [53]. - **Outlook**: The price is still affected by the复产 of Indonesian copper mines. The main contract should be temporarily observed [54][55]. Tin - **Performance**: Tin futures rose 0.53% on the previous trading day [56]. - **Outlook**: It may operate strongly in a fluctuating manner due to tight supply and certain demand support [56]. Nickel - **Performance**: Nickel futures fell 0.11% on the previous trading day [58]. - **Outlook**: It may operate in a fluctuating manner. The market is in an oversupply situation, with high - grade nickel ore still in short supply [59]. Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - **Performance**: Soybean meal futures fell 0.24%, and soybean oil futures rose 0.15% on the previous trading day [61]. - **Outlook**: After adjustment, investors can consider call options on soybean meal. Soybean oil should be temporarily observed due to supply pressure [62][63]. Palm Oil - **Performance**: Malaysian palm oil futures closed higher on the previous trading day [64]. - **Outlook**: A callback - buying strategy can be considered [64]. Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - **Performance**: Canadian rapeseed futures fell. In the domestic market, rapeseed meal and oil prices showed certain changes [65]. - **Outlook**: A callback - buying strategy can be considered for rapeseed oil [67]. Cotton - **Performance**: Domestic Zhengzhou cotton futures oscillated, and overseas cotton futures rebounded after hitting a low on the previous trading day [68]. - **Outlook**: Cotton prices are expected to remain under pressure due to factors such as trade frictions and harvest pressure [70][71]. Sugar - **Performance**: Zhengzhou sugar futures oscillated at a low level, and overseas sugar futures rebounded slightly on the previous trading day [72]. - **Outlook**: The market should be observed. The global sugar supply may be in surplus, and the domestic market has new sugar supply [74][75]. Apples - **Performance**: Domestic apple futures slightly fell on the previous trading day [76]. - **Outlook**: The market should be observed. The opening price of late - maturing apples is likely to be higher than last year [76][77]. Live Pigs - **Performance**: The national average price of live pigs rose, and the main futures contract fell 3.21% on the previous trading day [78][79]. - **Outlook**: The supply is expected to increase in the second half of the month. Existing short positions can be held, and short - selling on rebounds can be considered [79]. Eggs - **Performance**: The average price of eggs in the main production and sales areas rose, and the main futures contract fell 1.05% on the previous trading day [80][81]. - **Outlook**: The supply may increase in October, and consumption may be lower than expected. Existing short positions can be held, and short - selling on rebounds can be considered [81]. Corn and Corn Starch - **Performance**: Corn futures rose 0.67%, and corn starch futures fell 0.59% on the previous trading day [82]. - **Outlook**: Corn prices may continue to be under pressure. Corn starch may follow the corn market. Observation is recommended [83][84][85]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The macro - economic recovery momentum needs strengthening, and the monetary policy is expected to remain loose. Treasury bond futures are expected to have no trend - based market, so a cautious approach is recommended [6]. - The domestic economy is stable, but the recovery momentum is weak, and corporate profit growth is at a low level. However, the long - term performance of Chinese equity assets is still promising, and existing long positions can be held [9]. - The long - term bullish trend of precious metals is expected to continue, and investors can consider going long on gold futures [12]. - The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coils are affected by policies in the short term and are expected to return to the supply - demand logic in the medium term. Investors can pay attention to buying opportunities during pullbacks [15]. - The supply - demand pattern of iron ore is strong in the short term but may weaken in the medium term. Investors can pay attention to buying opportunities during pullbacks [17]. - The prices of coking coal and coke have positive support, but the futures prices have already reflected the improvement in fundamentals to a large extent. Investors can pay attention to buying opportunities during pullbacks [20]. - The short - term demand for ferroalloys has a slight increase, but the supply is still in excess. Investors can consider long positions at low levels after a decline [24]. - Crude oil has rebounded after bottom - building at a low level. Investors can focus on going long on the main crude oil contract [26][27]. - The sales volume of fuel oil in the Fujairah Oil Industrial Area is at a high level, and the inventory situation is mixed. Investors can short the spread between high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil on the main fuel oil contract [28][29]. - For synthetic rubber, wait for the market to stabilize and then participate in the rebound [30][31]. - For natural rubber, pay attention to buying opportunities after a pullback [32][33]. - PVC is expected to continue bottom - oscillating [34][35]. - Urea is expected to be volatile in the short term and bullish in the medium term [37]. - PX is expected to be in a short - term oscillating adjustment, and investors can consider range - bound operations [38]. - PTA is expected to oscillate in the short term, and investors can participate in the range at low levels [39][40]. - Ethylene glycol is recommended for range - bound participation, and investors should pay attention to port inventory and import changes [41]. - Short - fiber is expected to follow the cost to oscillate, and investors should pay attention to cost changes and macro - policy adjustments [42][43]. - Bottle - chip is expected to follow the cost to oscillate, and investors should control risks [44]. - Soda ash is expected to be lightly stable and oscillating in the short term, and the market will return to the fundamental - led logic [45]. - Glass is recommended to go short at high levels in the short term, and investors should pay attention to position control [47]. - Caustic soda is expected to have a positive supply - demand difference next week, and the market sentiment is good [48][49]. - Pulp is expected to oscillate and adjust, and investors should pay attention to the implementation of macro - policies and marginal demand signals [50][51]. - Lithium carbonate's trading logic has shifted, and investors should pay attention to the key time in late September. Non - entered investors should operate with a light position [52]. - Copper is in an oscillating state, and the Shanghai copper main contract should be temporarily observed [54][55]. - Tin is expected to oscillate, with tight supply at the mine end and weak consumption [57]. - Nickel is expected to oscillate, with an over - supply pattern of primary nickel [58]. - For soybean meal, consider long positions at the support level after adjustment; for soybean oil, consider taking profits on long positions at high levels [59][60]. - For palm oil, consider adding some long positions [63]. - For rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil, consider adding a small amount of long positions [65]. - Cotton is expected to be strong in price in the short term and oscillate in a range [67][69]. - Sugar is recommended to be observed, with high foreign production expectations and more imports before October in China [72]. - Apple is recommended to be observed, with a slight increase in production expected [74][75]. - For live pigs, consider a reverse - spread strategy [78]. - Eggs are recommended to be observed, with supply pressure expected to ease in October [80][81]. - Corn is recommended to be observed, and corn starch follows the corn market [83][84]. - Logs are expected to oscillate at high levels [86]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Treasury Bonds - On the previous trading day, most treasury bond futures closed higher. The central bank conducted 253 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 124.3 billion yuan. The use of stablecoins may increase the demand for US Treasury bonds [5]. - The current macro - data is stable, but the recovery momentum is weak. The yield of treasury bonds is at a relatively low level, and it is expected that there will be no trend - based market [6]. Stock Index - On the previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed performance [8]. - The domestic economy is stable, but the recovery momentum is weak. However, the long - term performance of Chinese equity assets is still promising, and existing long positions can be held [9]. Precious Metals - On the previous trading day, gold and silver futures rose. The manufacturing and service PMIs in the Eurozone and Germany in August were better than expected [11]. - The long - term bullish trend of precious metals is expected to continue, and investors can consider going long on gold futures [12]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils - On the previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures oscillated. The spot prices of billets and steel products were reported. Policy changes are the main factor in the short term, and the prices are expected to return to the supply - demand logic in the medium term [14][15]. - Investors can pay attention to buying opportunities during pullbacks and control positions [15]. Iron Ore - On the previous trading day, iron ore futures rebounded slightly. Policy is the main factor, and the price follows coking coal. The supply - demand pattern is strong in the short term but may weaken in the medium term [17]. - Investors can pay attention to buying opportunities during pullbacks and control positions [17]. Coking Coal and Coke - On the previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures continued to fall. The supply is affected by policies, and the futures prices have reflected the improvement in fundamentals to a large extent [20]. - Investors can pay attention to buying opportunities during pullbacks and control positions [20]. Ferroalloys - On the previous trading day, manganese - silicon and silicon - iron futures showed different trends. The supply of manganese ore decreased, and the cost of ferroalloys increased. The production of ferroalloys increased, but the demand recovery was weak [22]. - The short - term supply may be in excess, and investors can consider long positions at low levels after a decline [24]. Crude Oil - On the previous trading day, INE crude oil oscillated upward. The US crude oil inventory decreased significantly, and the sanctions on Russia and India supported the price [25][26]. - Investors can focus on going long on the main crude oil contract [27]. Fuel Oil - On the previous trading day, fuel oil oscillated and rose. The sales volume of fuel oil in the Fujairah Oil Industrial Area increased, but the inventory situation in different regions was mixed [28]. - Investors can short the spread between high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil on the main fuel oil contract [29]. Synthetic Rubber - On the previous trading day, synthetic rubber futures rose. The supply decreased due to losses, and the market sentiment was positive. Wait for the market to stabilize and then participate in the rebound [30][31]. Natural Rubber - On the previous trading day, natural rubber futures rose. The supply was affected by rainfall, and the cost support was strong. The demand increased slightly, and the inventory decreased [32]. - Pay attention to buying opportunities after a pullback [33]. PVC - On the previous trading day, PVC futures rose slightly. The supply exceeded demand, and the price continued to oscillate at the bottom. The supply increased, the demand decreased, and the profit improved [34]. - PVC is expected to continue bottom - oscillating [35]. Urea - On the previous trading day, urea futures fell. The market expected relaxed export restrictions to India. The supply was at a high level, and the demand for compound fertilizers increased [36][37]. - Urea is expected to be volatile in the short term and bullish in the medium term [37]. PX - On the previous trading day, PX futures rose. The supply - demand was balanced in the short term, and the PXN spread was firm, but the cost support from crude oil was insufficient [38]. - PX is expected to oscillate and adjust in the short term, and investors can consider range - bound operations [38]. PTA - On the previous trading day, PTA futures rose. The supply decreased, the demand improved, but the cost support from crude oil was weak, and the processing fee was under pressure [39][40]. - PTA is expected to oscillate in the short term, and investors can participate in the range at low levels [40]. Ethylene Glycol - On the previous trading day, ethylene glycol futures rose. The overall supply increased, but the overseas supply decreased. The demand improved slightly [41]. - Ethylene glycol is recommended for range - bound participation, and investors should pay attention to port inventory and import changes [41]. Short - Fiber - On the previous trading day, short - fiber futures rose. The supply was at a relatively high level, and the demand improved slightly. It is expected to follow the cost to oscillate [42][43]. Bottle - Chip - On the previous trading day, bottle - chip futures rose. The supply decreased due to more maintenance, and the demand for soft drinks increased. It is expected to follow the cost to oscillate [44]. Soda Ash - On the previous trading day, soda ash futures fell. The supply was at a high level, and the inventory increased slightly. It is expected to be lightly stable and oscillate in the short term [45]. Glass - On the previous trading day, glass futures fell. The production line was stable, the inventory decreased slowly, and the demand was weak. It is recommended to go short at high levels in the short term [47]. Caustic Soda - On the previous trading day, caustic soda futures rose. The supply increased slightly, and the demand was stable. The price was supported by changes in supply and demand [48][49]. Pulp - On the previous trading day, pulp futures fell. The supply was expected to shrink, but the demand improvement was uncertain, and the inventory was at a high level. It is expected to oscillate and adjust [50][51]. Lithium Carbonate - On the previous trading day, lithium carbonate futures fell. The trading logic has shifted, and the price bottom support has increased, but the supply - demand surplus pattern remains. Non - entered investors should operate with a light position [52]. Copper - On the previous trading day, Shanghai copper fluctuated. The spot market was average, and the price was affected by inventory and market sentiment. The Shanghai copper main contract should be temporarily observed [54][55]. Tin - On the previous trading day, Shanghai tin oscillated. The supply at the mine end was tight, and the consumption was weak. It is expected to oscillate [57]. Nickel - On the previous trading day, Shanghai nickel fell. The supply of primary nickel was in an over - supply pattern, and the price was under pressure. It is expected to oscillate [58]. Soybean Meal and Soybean Oil - On the previous trading day, soybean meal and soybean oil futures fell. The USDA lowered the US soybean planting area, and the domestic inventory increased. For soybean meal, consider long positions at the support level after adjustment; for soybean oil, consider taking profits on long positions at high levels [59][60]. Palm Oil - Malaysian palm oil fell. The Indonesian palm oil inventory decreased, and the export data was strong. Consider adding some long positions [61][63]. Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - Canadian rapeseed prices rose. The domestic inventory situation of rapeseed, rapeseed meal, and rapeseed oil was different. Consider adding a small amount of long positions [64][65]. Cotton - The domestic and foreign cotton markets showed different trends. The US cotton supply decreased, and the domestic inventory decreased. It is expected to be strong in price in the short term and oscillate in a range [66][69]. Sugar - The domestic sugar futures oscillated, and the foreign sugar futures fell. The Brazilian sugar production decreased slightly, and the Indian sugar production was expected to increase. It is recommended to be observed [71][72]. Apple - Apple futures rose slightly. The expected production reduction was disproved, and the production is expected to increase slightly. It is recommended to be observed [74][75]. Live Pigs - The price of live pigs rose slightly. The supply increased, and the demand improved slightly. Consider a reverse - spread strategy [77][78]. Eggs - Egg futures fell. The supply increased, and the demand was lower than expected. It is recommended to be observed, with supply pressure expected to ease in October [79][81]. Corn and Corn Starch - Corn futures were flat, and corn starch futures rose. The weather was normal, and the new - season corn was expected to have a good harvest. The supply - demand of corn was balanced, and corn starch followed the corn market [82][84]. Logs - Log futures fell slightly. The spot price was strong, the demand was better than the supply, and the export increased. It is expected to oscillate at high levels [85][86].

国家生猪大数据生猪合作专题 国家生猪大数据中心 X 西南期货有限公司 生猪季度数据解读与展望 一、能繁母猪存栏量（8 月 4038 万头，同比+0.05%） 解读：根据统计局和农业农村部联合发布的全国能繁母猪存栏量 显示，7-8 月能繁母猪平均存栏量为 4040 万头，同比增长 0.04%，处 于近 10 年同期偏高水平。2025 年 8 月底，能繁母猪存栏 4038 万头， 同比增长 0.05%。距离正常保有量上限（3900 万头）高出 3.5%，进 入高位低波动区间。三季度仔猪外售与育肥猪出栏利润皆出现快速下 滑，加之主管部门加强减产降重指引，期间能繁母猪微幅下降为主， 但局部中型育肥场存在扩充自繁现象，导致产业总体能繁母猪存栏降 幅有限。随着近年规模场持续更新原种，提高繁育效率，能繁母猪的 msy 持续增长；但 2025 年四季度开始，繁殖效率增长速度或同比放 缓，故而，2025 年四季度能繁母猪存栏量的同比变化趋势与程度， 或能为 2026 年三季度的出栏量同比变化情况形成较为明确的指引。 展望：四季度来看，仔猪外售利润或进一步收窄，极端阶段或呈 亏损状态。三季度政策指引加之四季度进入亏损的双重压力， ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report - For most commodities, the market shows various trends and risks, and different trading strategies are recommended according to the specific situation of each commodity [5][7][9] - Some commodities have experienced significant price changes, and investors are advised to take corresponding profit - taking or risk - control measures [8][10] 3. Summary by Commodity Treasury Bonds - Previous trading day: Treasury bond futures opened low and closed higher across the board, with the 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year main contracts rising 0.34%, 0.11%, 0.10%, and 0.02% respectively [5] - Market situation: The central bank conducted 91 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net injection of 91 billion yuan. The IMF slightly raised the global economic growth forecast for this year. The macro - economy has stable data but weak recovery momentum, and monetary policy is expected to remain loose [5][6] - Strategy: It is expected that there will be no trend - based market, and caution should be maintained [6] Stock Index Futures - Previous trading day: Stock index futures showed mixed performance, with the main contracts of IF, IH, IC, and IM falling by 1.14%, 0.09%, 2.93%, and 2.16% respectively [7] - Market situation: The domestic economy is stable but has weak recovery momentum, and corporate profit growth is at a low level. However, domestic asset valuations are low, and the economy has sufficient resilience. Market sentiment has warmed up, and incremental funds have entered the market [7] - Strategy: It is expected that volatility will increase, and existing long positions can be gradually liquidated for profit [8] Precious Metals - Previous trading day: The closing price of the gold main contract was 938.98, up 1.23%, and the night - session closing price was 949.76; the closing price of the silver main contract was 11,533, up 0.02%, and the night - session closing price was 11,732 [9] - Market situation: The global trade and financial environment is complex. The trends of "anti - globalization" and "de - dollarization" are beneficial to the allocation and hedging value of gold. Central bank gold purchases and the expected Fed rate cuts also support precious metals. However, the recent increase has been significant [9] - Strategy: Previous long positions can be appropriately liquidated for profit [10] Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils - Previous trading day: Rebar and hot - rolled coil futures oscillated weakly. The spot price of Tangshan billet was 2,940 yuan/ton, Shanghai rebar was 3,050 - 3,220 yuan/ton, and Shanghai hot - rolled coils were 3,270 - 3,290 yuan/ton [11] - Market situation: In the medium term, prices are determined by supply - demand. Rebar demand is declining year - on - year, but there is a slight improvement in the traditional peak season. Supply capacity is still excessive, and recent output has declined. Rebar inventory is higher than last year. The fundamentals of hot - rolled coils are similar to rebar [11][12] - Strategy: The medium - term weakness of rebar prices is difficult to change. Investors can consider shorting at high levels during rebounds and pay attention to position management [12] Iron Ore - Previous trading day: Iron ore futures corrected significantly. The spot price of PB fines was 778 yuan/ton, and that of Super Special fines was 700 yuan/ton [14] - Market situation: National pig iron production supports demand. Supply has increased since the second quarter, but imports and domestic production are still down year - on - year. Port inventory is lower than last year. In the short term, supply - demand supports prices, but may weaken in the medium term [14] - Strategy: Investors can consider buying on dips and pay attention to position management [14] Coking Coal and Coke - Previous trading day: Coking coal and coke futures oscillated weakly. Coking coal supply pressure is not significant, and demand shows some improvement. Coke prices have been adjusted, and the first - round increase is gradually taking effect [16][17] - Market situation: Coking coal production is normal, and demand for replenishment exists. Coke production and demand are relatively stable [16][17] - Strategy: Investors can consider buying on dips and pay attention to position management [17] Ferroalloys - Previous trading day: The manganese - silicon main contract fell 0.14% to 5,738 yuan/ton, and the silicon - iron main contract fell 0.44% to 5,378 yuan/ton. Spot prices also declined [19] - Market situation: Manganese ore shipments from Gabon decreased, and Australian ore supply increased. Port manganese ore inventory decreased slightly, and prices stabilized at a low level. Ferroalloy production costs increased, but demand was weak, and supply was excessive in the short term [19][20] - Strategy: In the short term, supply may remain excessive. After a decline, investors can consider long positions when the spot market falls into a loss - making range [20] Crude Oil - Previous trading day: INE crude oil oscillated downward due to the expected signing of a Middle - East peace agreement [21] - Market situation: CFTC data shows that US fund managers are bearish on crude oil. US oil and gas rig counts decreased. The Russia - Ukraine war continues to support prices, but the expected peace agreement in the Middle East is negative for prices [21][22] - Strategy: Temporarily hold off on trading the main crude oil contract [23] Fuel Oil - Previous trading day: Fuel oil oscillated downward following crude oil. The spot spreads of Asian ultra - low - sulfur and high - sulfur fuel oils declined. Singapore high - sulfur fuel oil inventory is high, and there is a shortage of medium - sulfur fuel oil [24] - Market situation: The Russia - Ukraine war supports prices, but the easing of Middle - East geopolitical risks leads to a decline in crude oil and fuel oil [24] - Strategy: Expand the price spread between high - and low - sulfur fuel oils for the main fuel oil contract [25] Synthetic Rubber - Previous trading day: The synthetic rubber main contract fell 1.42%. The mainstream price in Shandong decreased to 11,000 yuan/ton, and the basis was stable [26] - Market situation: The raw material side is bearish, and private supply is expected to increase. The utilization rate of high - cis butadiene rubber production capacity is high, demand is better than expected, and inventory shows different trends [26] - Strategy: It is expected to oscillate [27] Natural Rubber - Previous trading day: The main contracts of natural rubber and 20 - grade rubber fell 0.97% and 0.79% respectively. The Shanghai spot price was stable at around 14,300 yuan/ton, and the basis widened [28] - Market situation: Affected by Sino - US trade frictions, the overall sentiment is bearish. Supply disturbances have slowed down, and demand from tire factories has decreased during the holiday. After the holiday, supply disturbances are uncertain, and demand may recover [28] - Strategy: Pay attention to long - position opportunities [29] PVC - Previous trading day: The PVC main contract fell 0.43%. Spot prices decreased by 10 - 20 yuan/ton, and the basis was stable [30] - Market situation: The oversupply situation persists, but the downward space may be limited. After the holiday, focus on exports and supply reduction. Supply capacity utilization decreased, demand from downstream industries was weak, and inventory increased [30] - Strategy: Pay attention to changes on the supply side [30] Urea - Previous trading day: The urea main contract fell 0.50%. The price in Shandong Linyi was stable at 1,520 yuan/ton, and the basis was stable [31] - Market situation: After the holiday, focus on exports and cost changes. Supply has increased, and demand from downstream products has fluctuated slightly. Inventory is higher than expected [31] - Strategy: The downward space is limited [32] PX - Previous trading day: The PX main contract fell 1.58%. The PXN spread was adjusted to 220 US dollars/ton, and the PX - MX spread was 100 US dollars/ton [33] - Market situation: PX load increased, and some devices are under maintenance. Imports increased in August. In the short term, supply - demand is looser, and the cost side is weak, but the PXN spread is relatively strong [33] - Strategy: PX may adjust weakly in the short term. Pay attention to position management, external crude oil changes, and macro - policy changes [33] PTA - Previous trading day: The PTA2601 main contract fell 1.6%. Supply decreased due to some device shutdowns, and demand increased as polyester load rose. Processing fees were under pressure [34][35] - Market situation: In the short term, processing fees may improve, and inventory is low, but demand improvement is limited, and external crude oil prices are weak [35] - Strategy: PTA may oscillate. Be cautious, control risks, and pay attention to oil price changes [35] Ethylene Glycol - Previous trading day: The ethylene glycol main contract fell 1.24%. Supply increased as some devices restarted, and inventory increased. Demand improvement was limited, and the cost of crude oil was weak [36] - Market situation: In the short term, it may oscillate weakly. Pay attention to port inventory and import changes [36] - Strategy: Follow cost changes and pay attention to risk control and macro - policy adjustments [38] Short Fibers - Previous trading day: The short - fiber 2512 main contract fell 1.24%. Supply was at a relatively high level, and demand improved slightly. Cost support was weak [37][38] - Market situation: In the short term, it may oscillate following cost changes. Pay attention to cost changes and macro - policy adjustments [38] - Strategy: Follow cost changes and pay attention to risk control and macro - policy adjustments [38] Bottle Chips - Previous trading day: The bottle - chip 2512 main contract fell 1.17%. Supply increased, and demand from the downstream soft - drink industry decreased slightly, but exports remained high [39] - Market situation: In the short term, it is expected to oscillate following cost changes. Pay attention to risk control [39] - Strategy: Follow cost changes and pay attention to risk control [39] Lithium Carbonate - Previous trading day: The main contract rose 0.5% to 72,680 yuan/ton. Supply is at a high level, and demand from the energy - storage and power - battery sectors has improved. Inventory is gradually decreasing but remains high [40] - Market situation: In the short term, it may return to a supply - surplus situation, and prices may weaken. Pay attention to the sustainability of consumption [40][41] - Strategy: Pay attention to the sustainability of consumption [41] Copper - Previous trading day: Shanghai copper opened high and closed low due to uncertainties in US tariffs on China. The spot price increased, but downstream buying was weak [43] - Market situation: The closure of an Indonesian copper mine supports prices. Goldman Sachs' price forecast is lower than expected. Sino - US negotiations bring uncertainties [43] - Strategy: Temporarily hold off on trading the Shanghai copper main contract [44] Tin - Previous trading day: The main contract fell 0.76% to 280,000 yuan/ton. The supply from the mine end is tight, and demand shows some resilience. Inventory is decreasing [45] - Market situation: It is expected to oscillate strongly. Pay attention to the risk of accelerated mine resumption and lower - than - expected consumption [45][46] - Strategy: It is expected to oscillate strongly. Pay attention to the risk of accelerated mine resumption and lower - than - expected consumption [45][46] Nickel - Previous trading day: The main contract fell 0.17% to 120,870 yuan/ton. Concerns about supply resurfaced, but the price of high - grade nickel ore is supported. Stainless - steel consumption is weak, and inventory is relatively high [48] - Market situation: It is expected to oscillate. Pay attention to the risk of significant improvement in macro - policies [48][49] - Strategy: It is expected to oscillate. Pay attention to the risk of significant improvement in macro - policies [48][49] Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - Previous trading day: The main contracts of soybean meal and soybean oil fell 1.16% and 0.51% respectively. The spot prices were stable. US and Brazilian soybean production is progressing smoothly, and there are concerns about US soybean exports [50] - Market situation: Domestic soybean supply is abundant, and the profit of oil mills has declined. Demand for soybean meal may increase slightly, and soybean oil consumption is under pressure [50][51] - Strategy: Consider long - position opportunities for soybean meal call options after adjustment. Temporarily hold off on trading soybean oil [51] Palm Oil - Previous trading day: Malaysian palm oil fell for the third consecutive day. Inventory in September increased, and exports in October showed an increase. Chinese imports increased in August, and inventory is at a medium level [52] - Market situation: Consider a long - position strategy on dips [53] - Strategy: Consider a long - position strategy on dips [53] Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - Previous trading day: Canadian rapeseed prices rose. China has purchased a large amount of Australian rapeseed. Domestic imports of rapeseed, rapeseed meal, and rapeseed oil increased in August. Inventory is at different levels [54][55] - Market situation: Consider a long - position strategy on dips for rapeseed oil [56] - Strategy: Consider a long - position strategy on dips for rapeseed oil [56] Cotton - Previous trading day: Domestic cotton oscillated, and the outer - market cotton rebounded. US cotton production is expected to increase, and there are concerns about Sino - US trade frictions. Domestic cotton production is expected to increase significantly [57][58] - Market situation: Cotton prices are expected to remain under pressure. The domestic - foreign price difference is large, and there is hedging pressure [58] - Strategy: Cotton prices are expected to remain under pressure [59] Sugar - Previous trading day: Zhengzhou sugar fell to a new low, and the outer - market sugar rebounded. Brazilian sugar production increased in September, and the global sugar supply is expected to be in surplus in the new season. Chinese imports increased [60] - Market situation: Consider a wait - and - see strategy. The short - term price may have support [61][62] - Strategy: Consider a wait - and - see strategy [62] Apples - Previous trading day: Domestic apple futures fell slightly. Early - maturing apples had different price trends, and late - maturing apples are about to be listed. The national apple production is expected to increase slightly [63] - Market situation: Consider a wait - and - see strategy. The opening price of late - maturing apples is likely to be higher than last year [63][64] - Strategy: Consider a wait - and - see strategy [64] Live Pigs - Previous trading day: The national average price of live pigs rose to 10.89 yuan/kg. The supply in the north has increased, and the price has stabilized and rebounded. The supply in the south has increased, and the price is stable. The inventory of sows has decreased slightly [65] - Market situation: Consider holding existing short positions and using reverse - arbitrage strategies. Pay attention to the supply rhythm and the entry of second - fattening pigs [65][66] - Strategy: Consider holding existing short positions and using reverse - arbitrage strategies. Pay attention to the supply rhythm and the entry of second - fattening pigs [65][66] Eggs - Previous trading day: The average price of eggs in the main production areas was stable, and that in the main sales areas decreased slightly. The cost is high, and the inventory of laying hens is at a high level. The consumption after the holiday is weak [67] - Market situation: Consider holding existing short positions and adding short positions on rebounds. Pay attention to the change in the culling sentiment and cost collapse [67][68] - Strategy: Consider holding existing short positions and adding short positions on rebounds. Pay attention to the change in the culling sentiment and cost collapse [67][68] Corn and Corn Starch - Previous trading day: The main contracts of corn and corn starch fell. US corn harvesting is progressing smoothly. Domestic demand for corn is slightly increasing, and the inventory of corn starch is at a high level [69][70] - Market situation: Corn prices are expected to remain under pressure. Consider a wait - and - see strategy. Corn starch may follow the corn market [70][71] - Strategy: Corn prices are expected to remain under pressure. Consider a wait - and - see strategy. Corn starch may follow the corn market [70][71]

1 市场有风险 投资需谨慎 地址： 电话： 2025 年 9 月 29 日星期一 重庆市江北区金沙门路 32 号 23 层； 023-63638617 上海市浦东新区世纪大道 210 号 10 楼 1001； 国债： 上一交易日，国债期货收盘全线上涨，30 年期主力合约涨 0.20%报 114.190 元， 10 年期主力合约涨 0.13%报 107.680 元，5 年期主力合约涨 0.06%报 105.540 元，2 年 期主力合约涨 0.04%报 102.342 元。 公开市场方面，央行公告称，9 月 26 日以固定利率、数量招标方式开展了 1658 亿 元 7 天期逆回购操作，操作利率 1.40%，投标量 1658 亿元，中标量 1658 亿元。同时， 以固定数量、利率招标、多重价位中标方式开展了 6000 亿元 14 天期逆回购操作。Wind 数据显示，当日 3543 亿元逆回购到期，据此计算，单日净投放 4115 亿元。 央行货币政策委员会召开 2025 年第三季度例会。会议研究了下阶段货币政策主要 思路，建议加强货币政策调控，提高前瞻性、针对性、有效性，根据国内外经济金融 形势和金融市场运行情况， ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - Different futures products show diverse market trends and investment outlooks. Some products are expected to have bullish long - term trends, while others may face short - term adjustments or remain in a range - bound state. Overall, investors need to make decisions based on the specific fundamentals and market conditions of each product [5][9][11]. 3. Summary by Product Bonds - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, Treasury bond futures closed higher across the board. The 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year main contracts rose by 0.23%, 0.03%, 0.07%, and 0.03% respectively [5]. - **Macro - economic Data**: From January to July, the national general public budget revenue was 13.5839 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.1%. The national tax revenue was 11.0933 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 0.3%, and non - tax revenue was 2.4906 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2%. Stamp duty was 255.9 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 20.7%, among which securities trading stamp duty was 93.6 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 62.5% [5]. - **Outlook**: It is expected that Treasury bond futures will have no trend - based market and investors should remain cautious [6][7]. Stock Index Futures - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed results. The main contracts of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 stock index futures fell by 0.50%, 1.19%, 0.13%, and 0.03% respectively [8][9]. - **Outlook**: Although the domestic economic recovery momentum is weak and corporate profit growth is at a low level, due to the low valuation of domestic assets and the resilience of the Chinese economy, the long - term performance of Chinese equity assets is still optimistic, and existing long positions can be held [9][10]. Precious Metals - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the closing price of the gold main contract was 775.06, a decline of 0.33%, and the night - session closing price was 772.61. The closing price of the silver main contract was 9,187, a decline of 0.77%, and the night - session closing price was 9061 [11]. - **Outlook**: The long - term bullish trend of precious metals is expected to continue. Consider going long on gold futures [11][12]. Steel and Related Products - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: On the previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures fell slightly. Policy changes are currently the main factor affecting the market, and the price of finished products follows the price of coking coal. In the medium term, the price will return to the industrial supply - demand logic. The downward trend of the real estate industry and over - capacity are the core factors suppressing rebar prices. Investors can pay attention to buying opportunities during pullbacks and manage positions carefully [13]. - **Iron Ore**: On the previous trading day, iron ore futures pulled back slightly. Policy is the main factor affecting the market, and the iron ore price follows the coking coal price. The short - term supply - demand pattern is strong, but it may weaken in the medium term. Investors can pay attention to buying opportunities during pullbacks and manage positions carefully [15]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: On the previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures continued to decline. The current price still has bullish support due to policy - related supply reductions. In the short term, they may continue to adjust, and investors can pay attention to buying opportunities during pullbacks and manage positions carefully [17]. - **Ferroalloys**: On the previous trading day, the main contracts of manganese silicon and silicon iron fell. The short - term demand has a slight increase, but the supply is still excessive. After a decline, investors can consider long positions when the spot market falls into a loss - making range [19][20]. Energy Products - **Crude Oil**: On the previous trading day, INE crude oil oscillated downward, hitting a new low. Trump's arrangement of a tri - party meeting and CFTC data showing a net short position indicate that the crude oil price may be weak. The main contract should be put on hold for now [21][22][24]. - **Fuel Oil**: On the previous trading day, fuel oil oscillated downward. The Asian fuel oil spot market has sufficient supply, and the market shows mixed signals of improvement. The main contract strategy is to narrow the spread between high - and low - sulfur fuel oils [25][26]. Rubber Products - **Synthetic Rubber**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of synthetic rubber rose. Losses have led to reduced supply, and the macro - sentiment is positive. Wait for the market to stabilize and then participate in the rebound [27][28]. - **Natural Rubber**: On the previous trading day, the main contracts of natural rubber and 20 - grade rubber rose. The macro - market sentiment has improved, and there are supply - side disturbances. Consider going long after a pullback [29][30]. Chemical Products - **PVC**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of PVC fell. The oversupply situation continues, but the downward space may be limited, and it will continue to oscillate at the bottom [31][32]. - **Urea**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of urea rose. The market expects relaxed export restrictions to India. In the short term, it will oscillate, and in the medium term, it should be treated bullishly [33][34]. - **PX**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of PX rose. In the short term, the supply - demand situation has weakened, and the cost and demand support are insufficient. It may oscillate and adjust. Consider range - bound operations [35]. - **PTA**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of PTA rose. In the short term, the processing fee is under pressure, supply may decrease, demand improves slightly, and the cost support is weak. It may oscillate and be sorted out. Consider range - bound participation [36][37]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of ethylene glycol rose. In the short term, the supply increase may suppress the market, but overseas device maintenance may reduce imports. Consider range - bound participation and pay attention to port inventory and import changes [38]. - **Short - Fiber**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of short - fiber rose. In the short term, the supply remains at a relatively high level, demand improves, and the supply - demand contradiction is not significant. It may follow the cost to oscillate [39][40]. - **Bottle Chips**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of bottle chips rose. Raw material prices oscillate, and there are more device overhauls. The market is supported, but the main logic lies in the cost end, and it is expected to follow the cost to oscillate [41]. - **Soda Ash**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of soda ash fell. The supply is increasing, and downstream demand is stable. It is expected to oscillate lightly and stably in the short term. Pay attention to controlling positions [42][43]. - **Glass**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of glass fell. The production line is stable, inventory reduction has slowed down, and downstream demand is weak. In the short term, go short at high levels, and pay attention to controlling positions [44]. - **Caustic Soda**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of caustic soda fell. Supply fluctuates little, and demand is under pressure. The price is expected to be weak in the short term [45][46]. - **Pulp**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of pulp fell. Supply contraction expectations dominate, but demand improvement is uncertain. The high inventory and macro - sentiment are in a game. [47][48] - **Lithium Carbonate**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of lithium carbonate fell. The trading logic has shifted to policy - related and mining - license events. The supply - demand surplus pattern remains, and investors should operate with a light position and control risks [49]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: On the previous trading day, Shanghai copper oscillated slightly. The import window is open, and downstream consumption is average. There is a shortage of copper concentrate, and factors such as the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation and smooth Sino - US trade negotiations support copper prices. Consider going long on the main contract [51][52][53]. - **Tin**: On the previous trading day, Shanghai tin oscillated. The supply is tight, and consumption is weak. It is expected to oscillate [54]. - **Nickel**: On the previous trading day, Shanghai nickel fell. The market is in an oversupply pattern, and it is expected to oscillate [55][56]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal**: On the previous trading day, soybean meal rose, and soybean oil fell. The domestic soybean supply is relatively loose, and the cost support is enhanced. Consider exiting long positions at high levels and then looking for long - position opportunities at support levels [57][58]. - **Palm Oil**: Malaysian palm oil prices have fluctuations. The export volume has increased, and the domestic inventory is high. Consider holding long positions with a light position [59][60]. - **Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil**: Canadian rapeseed prices fell. China's import sources may change, and the inventory of related products is at a high level. Consider reducing and holding long positions [61][63]. - **Cotton**: Domestic and foreign cotton prices show different trends. The US cotton supply - demand report is bullish, but the domestic textile export is under pressure. It is expected that the price will be strong in the short term [64][66]. - **Sugar**: Domestic and foreign sugar production and import data show different situations. It is recommended to wait and see [67][68]. - **Apples**: Apple futures fell slightly. The expected reduction in production has been falsified, and the market is expected to produce a small increase. It is recommended to wait and see [70][71][72]. - **Hogs**: The national average price of hogs rose slightly. The supply is increasing, and demand is weak in the short term. Consider an inverse spread strategy [73][75][76]. - **Eggs**: The average price of eggs remained stable. The supply is increasing, and consumption is not as expected. It is recommended to wait and see [77][78]. - **Corn and Starch**: Corn and corn starch futures fell. The short - term supply - demand tends to balance, but the new - season corn has a strong production expectation. It is recommended to wait and see, and corn starch follows the corn market [79][80]. - **Logs**: On the previous trading day, the main contract of logs fell. The spot market has improved, and the demand is slightly better than the arrival volume. It is expected to oscillate at a high level [81][84].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The macro - economic recovery momentum needs strengthening, and monetary policy is expected to remain loose. Treasury bond futures are expected to have no trend - based market, so a cautious approach is advised [6][7]. - The domestic economy is stable, but the recovery momentum is weak, and corporate profit growth is low. However, domestic asset valuations are low, and China's economy has sufficient resilience. The long - term performance of Chinese equity assets is still optimistic, and existing long positions can be held [9][10]. - The global trade and financial environment is complex, and the "de - globalization" and "de - dollarization" trends are beneficial to the allocation and hedging value of gold. The long - term bullish trend of precious metals is expected to continue, and considering going long on gold futures is advisable [11][12]. - For most commodities, the market is affected by various factors such as policies, supply - demand relationships, and cost. Each commodity has its own specific investment suggestions, including paying attention to callbacks for buying opportunities, short - term observation, and taking corresponding strategies based on price trends and fundamentals [13][23][25]. Summary According to Related Catalogs Treasury Bonds - The previous trading day, treasury bond futures closed down across the board. The central bank conducted 266.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 154.5 billion yuan. The macro - economic recovery momentum needs strengthening, and treasury bond futures are expected to have no trend - based market, so be cautious [5][6][7]. Stock Index Futures - The previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed performance. The A - share market value exceeded 100 trillion yuan. The domestic economy is stable, but the recovery momentum is weak. The long - term performance of Chinese equity assets is optimistic, and existing long positions can be held [8][9][10]. Precious Metals - The previous trading day, gold and silver futures rose. The global trade and financial environment is complex, and the long - term bullish trend of precious metals is expected to continue. Consider going long on gold futures [11][12]. Steel Products (Thread, Hot - Rolled Coil) - The previous trading day, steel product futures declined slightly. Policy changes are the main factor in the short - term, and the mid - term is expected to return to the supply - demand logic. The real estate industry's downturn suppresses the price of rebar. The steel industry's stable - growth policy may be a positive factor. Technically, there may be short - term adjustments, and investors can pay attention to callback buying opportunities [13]. Iron Ore - The previous trading day, iron ore futures had a slight correction. Policy is the main factor in the short - term. The supply - demand pattern is currently strong but may weaken in the mid - term. Technically, there may be short - term adjustments, and investors can pay attention to callback buying opportunities [15]. Coking Coal and Coke - The previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures declined significantly. The policy has affected supply, and there is still positive support for prices. Technically, there may be short - term adjustments, and investors can pay attention to callback buying opportunities [16]. Ferroalloys - The previous trading day, the manganese - silicon contract rose, and the silicon - iron contract fell. The cost of ferroalloys is rising, production is increasing, and demand recovery is weak. There may be short - term supply surpluses. Consider long positions at low levels after price corrections [18][19]. Crude Oil - The previous trading day, INE crude oil hit a new low. The "Double - Putin" talks may lead to European and Ukrainian participation in negotiations, which will put pressure on crude oil. CFTC data shows a bearish sentiment. The price is expected to be weak, and the main contract should be temporarily observed [20][21][23]. Fuel Oil - The previous trading day, fuel oil showed a strong upward trend. Singapore's fuel oil inventory has decreased significantly, which supports the price. The strategy is to shrink the spread between high - and low - sulfur fuel oils [24][25]. Synthetic Rubber - The previous trading day, synthetic rubber rose. Losses have increased, supply has decreased, and the macro - sentiment is positive. Pay attention to opportunities for a rebound after stabilization [26][27]. Natural Rubber - The previous trading day, natural rubber rose. The macro - market sentiment has improved, and supply - side disruptions continue. Pay attention to long - position opportunities [28][29]. PVC - The previous trading day, PVC declined. The oversupply situation continues, but the downward space may be limited. It is expected to continue bottom - range oscillations [30][31]. Urea - The previous trading day, urea rose. The short - term fundamentals change little, and the mid - term view is bullish [32][34]. PX - The previous trading day, PX rose. The short - term supply - demand situation has weakened, and the cost and demand support are insufficient. It may be adjusted in a range [35]. PTA - The previous trading day, PTA rose. The short - term processing fee is under pressure, supply may decrease, demand improves slightly, and the cost support is weak. It may be adjusted in a range [36][37]. Ethylene Glycol - The previous trading day, ethylene glycol declined. The short - term supply increase may suppress the price, but the demand may improve. Consider trading in a range and pay attention to port inventory and imports [38]. Short - Fiber - The previous trading day, short - fiber rose. The short - term supply is high, demand has improved, and the supply - demand contradiction is not significant. It may follow the cost to oscillate [39][40]. Bottle Chips - The previous trading day, bottle chips rose. The device maintenance has increased, inventory is stable, and it is expected to follow the cost to oscillate [41]. Soda Ash - The previous trading day, soda ash declined. Supply is increasing, demand is general, and it is expected to be lightly stable and oscillate in the short - term. Pay attention to controlling positions [42][43]. Glass - The previous trading day, glass declined. The production line is stable, the de - stocking speed has slowed down, and demand is weak. In the short - term, consider short - positions, and pay attention to controlling positions [44]. Caustic Soda - The previous trading day, caustic soda rose. Supply fluctuates little, and consumption and prices may be under pressure due to the use of imported ores. The market will gradually return to the logic of stable spot prices [45][46]. Pulp - The previous trading day, pulp declined. Supply contraction expectations dominate the sentiment, but demand improvement is uncertain. There is a game between high inventory and macro - sentiment [47][48]. Lithium Carbonate - The previous trading day, lithium carbonate rose. The trading logic has shifted, and the mine - permit event is uncertain. Light - position operations are recommended for non - participants [49]. Copper - The previous trading day, Shanghai copper fluctuated slightly. The market's expectation of interest - rate cuts has cooled, and copper prices are oscillating. Downstream enterprises purchase as needed. Consider long - position opportunities [51][52][53]. Tin - The previous trading day, Shanghai tin oscillated. The supply is still tight, and consumption is not optimistic. Tin prices are expected to oscillate [54]. Nickel - The previous trading day, Shanghai nickel declined. The supply of primary nickel is in an oversupply pattern, and the consumption is not optimistic. There is pressure on the upper side [55]. Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - The previous trading day, soybean meal and soybean oil rose. The U.S. soybean's excellent - rate is high, and the supply of soybeans is expected to be loose. Consider taking long - position exits at high levels and then long - positions at support levels [56][57]. Palm Oil - The previous trading day, palm oil rose. Malaysian exports have increased, and domestic imports have also increased. Consider holding long - positions lightly [58][59][60]. Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - The previous trading day, rapeseed - related products' prices changed. The domestic supply of rapeseed products is expected to be tight in the short - term. Consider reducing and holding long - positions [61][62]. Cotton - The previous trading day, domestic cotton oscillated. The global supply - demand is expected to be loose, but short - term reports are positive. Prices are expected to be strong [63][64][65]. Sugar - The previous trading day, domestic sugar rebounded slightly. Overseas production is expected to be high, and domestic imports are large before October. It is recommended to observe [66][67][68]. Apple - The previous trading day, apple futures rose slightly. The expected production reduction is falsified, and there is a slight increase in production. It is recommended to observe [69][71][72]. Live Pigs - The previous trading day, the price of live pigs declined slightly. The supply is increasing, and demand is weak in the short - term. Consider an anti - spread strategy [73][74]. Eggs - The previous trading day, egg prices rose. Egg supply is expected to increase in August, and consumption is not as expected. Consider stopping profit on anti - spreads and then observing [75][76]. Corn and Starch - The previous trading day, corn and corn starch futures declined. The short - term domestic corn supply - demand is approaching balance, but new - season corn has a high - yield expectation, so it is recommended to observe. Corn starch follows the corn market [77][78][79]. Logs - The previous trading day, log futures were flat. Log spot prices are strong, demand is slightly better than arrivals, and short - term bullish sentiment is expected to be supported [80][81][82].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The macro data in July showed an overall decline, and the recovery momentum of the domestic economy still needs to be strengthened. The economy presents a situation of having a bottom but lacking upward momentum, with greater pressure on nominal GDP than real GDP. [3] - "Expanding domestic demand and combating involution" will be an important, long - term, and continuous policy approach. The financial market is in a state of "weak reality, strong expectation", and market sentiment is continuously improving. In 2025, the macro economy and asset prices are expected to continue the upward - repair trend, although the process may be tortuous. [3] Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Manufacturing PMI Declined Month - on - Month - In July, the manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, a 0.4 - percentage - point decrease from the previous month. Large - scale enterprises' PMI was 50.3% (down 0.9 percentage points), medium - scale enterprises' was 49.5% (up 0.9 percentage points), and small - scale enterprises' was 46.4% (down 0.9 percentage points). [4] - Among the 5 sub - indices of the manufacturing PMI, the production index and supplier delivery time index were above the critical point, while the new order index, raw material inventory index, and employment index were below it. [4] 2. CPI was Flat Year - on - Year and PPI Fell 3.6% Year - on - Year in July - In July 2025, the national CPI was flat year - on - year, with a 0.4% month - on - month increase. Food prices decreased while non - food prices increased. [8][9] - The PPI decreased 3.6% year - on - year and 0.2% month - on - month. Industries such as coal, ferrous metals, and petrochemicals had large year - on - year declines, dragging down the PPI. [11] 3. Both Exports and Imports Rebounded in July - In July, China's exports increased 7.2% year - on - year, imports increased 4.1% year - on - year, and the trade surplus was $98.24 billion, a decrease of $16.53 billion. [14] - Exports to the EU, ASEAN countries, and Japan increased, while the decline in exports to the US narrowed. Exports are likely to remain strong in 2025. [16] 4. Credit Demand was Weak, and M1 and M2 Growth Rates Further Rebounded - In the first seven months of 2025, the cumulative increase in social financing scale was 23.99 trillion yuan, 5.12 trillion yuan more than the same period last year. Credit demand from residents and enterprises was insufficient, but the increase in government bond issuance offset it. [18][25] - At the end of July, M2 was 329.94 trillion yuan (up 8.8% year - on - year), M1 was 111.06 trillion yuan (up 5.6% year - on - year), and the M1 - M2 gap narrowed to 3.2%. [23] 5. Industrial Production was Stable, and Consumption Growth Declined - In July, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased 5.7% year - on - year and 0.38% month - on - month. The growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods was 3.7%, lower than expected. [26] - In 2025, from January to July, the growth rates of manufacturing investment, infrastructure investment, and real estate development investment all declined. [30] 6. The Growth Rate of Real Estate Sales Declined, but it was Still at the Bottoming - Out Stage - From January to July, the sales area of new commercial housing decreased 4.0% year - on - year, and the sales volume decreased 6.5% year - on - year. The real estate market is still in the adjustment stage. [32] - The inventory of commercial housing decreased slightly. The "market bottom" of this round of real estate downward cycle is emerging, and the drag on the macro economy will significantly narrow. [33][37] 7. Summary and Outlook - The macro - economic data in July were weak, and the domestic economic recovery momentum needs to be strengthened. The economy presents a situation of having a bottom but lacking upward momentum. [38] - "Expanding domestic demand and combating involution" will be an important long - term policy. In 2025, the macro economy and asset prices are expected to continue the upward - repair trend. [40]