1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - For Treasury bonds, it is expected that there will be no trending market, and caution should be maintained [6][7]. - For stock index futures, the risk of a significant decline is low, and one can choose an opportunity to go long [9][10]. - For precious metals, the short - term pricing is relatively full. After taking profits on previous long positions, one can wait and observe [11][12]. - For rebar and hot - rolled coils, the medium - term weakness of rebar prices may be difficult to change. One can focus on shorting opportunities at high levels during rebounds [14]. - For iron ore, the market supply - demand pattern has weakened. One can focus on shorting opportunities at high levels [16]. - For coking coal and coke, they may continue to be strong in the short term. One can focus on buying opportunities during pullbacks [19]. - For ferroalloys, the short - term supply may remain in excess. After a decline, one can consider low - level long positions when the spot falls into the loss range again [22]. - For crude oil, the main contract should be temporarily observed [25]. - For fuel oil, one can focus on shorting opportunities for the main contract [28]. - For polyolefins, one can focus on shorting opportunities [30]. - For synthetic rubber, it is expected to oscillate [33]. - For natural rubber, one can focus on going long opportunities [35]. - For PVC, one should focus on changes in the supply side [37]. - For urea, the downward space is limited [38]. - For p - xylene (PX), it may oscillate and adjust in the short term. One should participate within a range and pay attention to controlling positions [42]. - For PTA, it may oscillate in the short term. One should be cautious, control risks, and pay attention to oil price changes [43]. - For ethylene glycol, it may oscillate weakly in the short term. One should pay attention to port inventory and supply changes [46]. - For staple fiber, it may oscillate following the cost. One should control risks and pay attention to cost changes and macro - policy adjustments [47]. - For bottle chips, it is expected to oscillate following the cost side. One should control risks [48]. - For lithium carbonate, pay attention to the sustainability of consumption [50]. - For copper, it is in a phase of adjustment [52]. - For aluminum, it will run at a high level [55]. - For zinc, it is expected to continue to oscillate within a range [57]. - For lead, one should be cautious about chasing long positions [59]. - For tin, it may oscillate strongly [60]. - For nickel, it may oscillate [61]. - For soybean oil and soybean meal, one can consider taking profits on long positions in soybean meal when it continues to rise. One can temporarily observe soybean oil [63]. - For palm oil, one can consider going long during pullbacks [66]. - For rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil, one can consider buying near - term contracts and selling far - term contracts for rapeseed meal [68]. - For cotton, the upside space is expected to be limited. The price is under pressure [72]. - For sugar, there is certain support at the bottom [75]. - For apples, one should wait and observe [78]. - For live pigs, one can consider shorting opportunities during rebounds [79]. - For eggs, one can continue to hold short positions and pay attention to adding short positions during subsequent rebounds [83]. - For corn and starch, it is advisable to wait and observe for corn. Corn starch may follow the corn market [86]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Treasury Bonds - On the previous trading day, most treasury bond futures closed down. The 30 - year, 10 - year, and 2 - year main contracts declined, while the 5 - year main contract remained flat. The central bank conducted 655 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 492.2 billion yuan on the day. The US ADP employment data in October was better than expected [5]. - The macro - economic recovery momentum needs to be strengthened. It is expected that the monetary policy will remain loose. The treasury bond yield is at a relatively low level. The Chinese economy shows a steady recovery trend, and there is room for domestic demand policies to exert force. The market risk preference has significantly increased. Therefore, it is expected that there will be no trending market for treasury bond futures [6]. Stock Index Futures - On the previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed performance. The main contracts of CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 stock index futures rose, while the main contract of SSE 50 stock index futures declined slightly [8][9]. - The domestic economy remains stable, but the macro - economic recovery momentum is not strong, and the corporate profit growth rate is at a low level. However, the domestic asset valuation is at a low level, and there is room for valuation repair. The Chinese economy has sufficient resilience. Recently, market sentiment has significantly warmed up, and incremental funds have continued to enter the market. The uncertainty in Sino - US economic and trade relations has eased. It is expected that the risk of a significant decline is low [9]. Precious Metals - On the previous trading day, the gold main contract closed down, and the silver main contract closed up. The global trade and financial environment is complex. The trends of "anti - globalization" and "de - dollarization" are beneficial to the allocation and hedging value of gold. Central bank gold - buying behavior also supports the gold price. The U.S. labor market has further slowed down, and the Federal Reserve is expected to continue to cut interest rates, which is also beneficial to precious metals. However, the recent increase in precious metals has been large, the pricing is relatively full, the heat is too high, and the volatility has increased [11]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils - On the previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures continued to correct. In the medium term, the price of finished products is dominated by the industrial supply - demand logic. On the demand side, the long - term downward trend of the real estate industry has not reversed, and the demand for rebar is still declining year - on - year. In the medium term, it is the traditional peak demand season, and downstream demand has slightly improved. On the supply side, the over - capacity situation remains unchanged, but due to the deterioration of steel mill profitability, the weekly output of rebar has declined month - on - month. Currently, the rebar inventory is significantly higher than that of the same period last year, and the inventory pressure is obvious. The basic logic of hot - rolled coils is similar to that of rebar [13][14]. Iron Ore - On the previous trading day, iron ore futures continued to correct. The national daily pig iron output has dropped below 2.4 million tons, which is negative for the iron ore price. On the supply side, the import volume of iron ore and the output of domestic mines have continued to increase month - on - month after the second quarter. It is expected that the iron ore supply will turn to a year - on - year growth trend in the fourth quarter. Since October, the iron ore port inventory has continued to rise, and the current inventory is close to that of the same period last year [16]. Coking Coal and Coke - On the previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures opened low and closed high. For coking coal, production in major producing areas is restricted due to underground and environmental inspections, and the supply is slightly tight. On the demand side, some downstream coking enterprises and intermediate links have appropriately replenished their inventories, and market transactions are performing well. For coke, the third - round increase in the spot purchase price has been initiated but has not been fully implemented. Coking enterprise production is also affected by environmental factors. Due to the significant increase in coking coal prices recently, some coking enterprises have incurred losses and carried out centralized maintenance, resulting in a month - on - month decline in coke supply. Whether downstream steel mills will accept a new round of coke price increases remains to be observed after the compression of blast furnace profits [18][19]. Ferroalloys - On the previous trading day, the main contracts of manganese - silicon and silicon - iron rose. The shipping volume of manganese ore from Gabon has rebounded, and the supply of Australian ore has increased since June. The port manganese ore inventory has slightly rebounded, and the port manganese ore quotation has stabilized at a low level. The main - producing area electricity price has stabilized, and the prices of coke and semi - coke have recovered from a low level. The cost of ferroalloys has increased from a low level. The output of rebar by sample building material steel mills last week was lower than that of the same period in 2024. The long - process gross profit of rebar in September declined. The production of manganese - silicon and silicon - iron has remained at a high level, and the demand for ferroalloys is weak. The short - term supply is still in excess. The exchange warehouse receipts have started to be registered rapidly, and the supply surplus has continued to drive inventory accumulation [21]. Crude Oil - On the previous trading day, INE crude oil opened low and closed high, closing above the 5 - day moving average. The U.S. government shutdown has suspended the release of the CFTC position report. The number of U.S. oil and gas rigs has increased for the second consecutive week, reaching the highest level since June. India's largest Russian oil buyer will comply with Western sanctions on Moscow while maintaining relationships with existing oil suppliers [23]. - Although the number of Baker Hughes rigs has increased again, it is still a long way to go for the U.S. to increase crude oil production. U.S. sanctions on Russian oil companies are positive for crude oil prices. OPEC will suspend production increases next year, which gives confidence to the crude oil market and supports the oil price increase [24]. Fuel Oil - On the previous trading day, fuel oil oscillated downward and broke below the moving average group. The delay in the resumption of the crude oil unit of Kuwait's al - Zour refinery has boosted the fuel oil market. The crack spread of Asian ultra - low - sulfur fuel oil has reached the highest level in more than three weeks. It is expected that the supply of the Asian fuel oil market will be abundant in November, but the fundamentals may potentially support a moderate price increase. The east - west arbitrage spread has narrowed, and the amount of fuel oil arbitrage from Europe in December will decrease, reducing the Asian fuel oil supply. The Asian high - sulfur fuel oil market is supported by the robust downstream marine fuel oil demand, but the increase in the sales of marine fuel oil loaded in the second half of November may drag down the spot spread [26][27]. - The market expects sufficient fuel oil supply, which is negative for the fuel oil price. Sanctions on Russia and the reduction of Sino - US trade frictions are positive for the fuel oil price [27]. Polyolefins - On the previous trading day, the offer in the Hangzhou PP market declined. The global economic environment is weak, and merchants are cautious about the future market and offer discounts to promote transactions. In the Yuyao market, the price of LLDPE partially decreased. Merchants are actively selling goods to maintain the de - stocking rhythm, and the transaction center of gravity has continued to move down [29]. - On the supply side, the impact of maintenance in November is expected to be 416,000 tons, still at a high level of maintenance within the year. On the inventory side, the social inventory and downstream factory inventory are lower than the same period last year. Currently, the market sentiment is cautious, but there may be a collective replenishment in the future. On the demand side, the peak season for the start - up of agricultural films and packaging films in November is not prosperous, which exerts pressure on prices [29]. Synthetic Rubber - On the previous trading day, the main contract of synthetic rubber declined. The cost side is weak, which has continuously pressured the negotiation center of gravity on the spot side. The price on the futures market has oscillated downward, and the price difference with natural rubber has widened to 4,000 yuan. It is expected that the downward space is limited. One should pay attention to the raw material market and supply - side changes in the future [31]. - The domestic butadiene market has accelerated its decline, reaching a new low for the year. The impact of the maintenance of the cis - butadiene units of Qilu Petrochemical and Yangzi Petrochemical has emerged, and the weekly production and capacity utilization rate have decreased slightly. The start - up rate of tire sample enterprises has declined this cycle, and the end - of - month shipments are relatively concentrated, which is conducive to inventory digestion. It is expected that the inventory of sample production enterprises and sample trading enterprises will slightly decrease next week [31][32]. Natural Rubber - On the previous trading day, the main contracts of natural rubber and 20 - standard rubber declined. The spot price in Shanghai has been adjusted downward, and the basis has remained stable. Last week, the price on the futures market oscillated, and there was a correction at the end of the week. In the future, one should focus on the phenological conditions in the producing areas and demand expectations [34]. - Overseas producing areas such as southern Thailand and Vietnam, as well as Hainan in China, have been affected by typhoons and heavy rainfall, resulting in不畅 raw material release and high raw material procurement prices. The start - up rate of tire sample enterprises has declined this cycle, and the end - of - month shipments are relatively concentrated, which is conducive to inventory digestion. The natural rubber inventory has continued to decline in both deep - and light - colored rubber, with a significant decline in light - colored rubber. The latest data shows that Thailand's natural rubber exports (excluding compound rubber) in the first three quarters of 2025 totaled 1.993 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8% [34]. PVC - On the previous trading day, the main contract of PVC declined, and the spot price was adjusted downward. The basis remained stable. The current situation of oversupply in the PVC market continues, but the space for a further significant downward movement may be limited. It still needs to wait for the fundamentals to further improve. After the holiday, one should focus on exports and supply reduction [36]. - According to Longzhong data, the capacity utilization rate of PVC production enterprises this week has increased month - on - month and decreased year - on - year. Some downstream enterprises in the north have entered the off - season of demand, and their start - up rates are planned to be reduced. Affected by Indian holidays and anti - dumping duties, exports are mainly in a wait - and - see state and are expected to continue to decline. The overall digestion of PVC has decreased. In terms of cost and profit, coal prices have corrected, and semi - coke prices have increased. Due to unstable power supply and peak - shifting production, the calcium carbide price is relatively firm. The social inventory of PVC has decreased month - on - month but increased year - on - year [36][37]. Urea - On the previous trading day, the main contract of urea rose. The price in Shandong Linyi remained stable. The basis has slightly narrowed. In the short term, one should pay attention to changes in export policies and signals of seasonal recovery in agricultural demand. It is expected that urea will fluctuate within a narrow range this week [38]. - Some previously shut - down urea production devices have gradually resumed operation this week, but they have not fully recovered, and production has increased slightly. The tail orders of autumn fertilizers are coming to an end, and some start - up rates may be affected. Coal prices have remained stable, and the cost side has basically remained the same. The factory quotes of urea this period first decreased and then increased slightly, but the overall average price has decreased, and the urea profit has continued to narrow. Only the new coal gasification process has a small profit, while the fixed - bed natural gas process is significantly in the red. The total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises has decreased compared with last week [38]. p - Xylene (PX) - On the previous trading day, the main contract of PX rose slightly. The PXN spread has been adjusted, and the PX - MX spread has declined. The operating rate of PX has increased to 87%. Fujia Dahua restarted at the end of October and produced products at the beginning of November. In September, the mainland's PX import volume decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year. The oil price is still in a volatile and stalemate rhythm after the rebound from sanctions on Russia. One should pay attention to the situation in Venezuela [39]. - In the short term, the PX supply - demand structure has improved, the PXN spread is relatively firm, and the supply has slightly decreased. The cost - side crude oil is in a volatile adjustment. Therefore, PX may oscillate and adjust in the short term. One should participate within a range, control positions, be vigilant about crude oil changes, and pay attention to macro - policy changes [40][42]. PTA - On the previous trading day, the main contract of PTA2601 rose slightly. On the supply side, Yisheng Dahua has slightly reduced its load, and the PTA operating rate has been adjusted to around 78%. Dushan Energy's 4th - phase 3 - million - ton PTA project has been put into production in October and is currently operating on two lines. In November, the planned PTA maintenance is expected to be more than restarts. Many PTA production facilities have planned maintenance. On the demand side, the polyester device has changed little, and the polyester operating rate is 91.7%. The start - up rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang terminals has increased, and factory raw material inventory has increased. In terms of efficiency, due to the mismatch between upstream and downstream, profits have been concentrated upstream, and the PTA processing fee has continued to decline [43]. - In the short term, the PTA processing fee is still low, the inventory is maintained at a low level, and the

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - The Treasury bond futures are expected to have no trend - like market, and caution is advised [5][6]. - The stock index futures are expected to have little risk of a sharp decline, and investors can choose the right time to go long [9][10]. - For precious metals, the short - term pricing is relatively full, and investors can take profits on long positions and then wait and see [11][12]. - The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coils are likely to remain weak in the medium - term, and investors can look for short - selling opportunities at high levels during rebounds [13][14]. - The supply - demand pattern of iron ore has weakened, and investors can look for short - selling opportunities at high levels [16]. - Coke and coking coal futures may continue to be strong in the short - term, and investors can look for buying opportunities during pullbacks [18][19]. - Ferroalloys may continue to have oversupply in the short - term, and investors can consider long positions at low levels when the spot falls into the loss zone again [21][22]. - For crude oil, the main contract should be temporarily observed [24][25]. - For fuel oil, investors can look for short - selling opportunities in the main contract [27][28]. - Polyolefins may rebound, and the main contract should be temporarily observed [29][30]. - Synthetic rubber is expected to fluctuate [31][33]. - For natural rubber, investors can look for long - buying opportunities [34][35]. - For PVC, investors should pay attention to changes in the supply side [36][37]. - The downside space of urea is limited [38]. - PX may fluctuate and adjust in the short - term, and investors can participate in the range, paying attention to crude oil changes and macro - policies [39]. - PTA may fluctuate in the short - term, and investors should be cautious, paying attention to oil price changes [40]. - Ethylene glycol may fluctuate weakly in the short - term, and investors should pay attention to port inventory and supply changes [41]. - Short - fiber may fluctuate following costs in the short - term, and investors should pay attention to cost changes and macro - policy adjustments [42]. - Bottle - grade chips may fluctuate following the cost side in the future, and investors should control risks [43]. - For lithium carbonate, investors should pay attention to the sustainability of consumption [44][45]. - Copper is in a stage of adjustment [46][47]. - Aluminum is expected to run at a high level [48][50]. - Zinc is expected to continue to fluctuate in a range [51][52]. - For lead, investors should be cautious about chasing long positions [53][54]. - Tin prices may fluctuate strongly [55]. - Nickel prices may fluctuate [56]. - For soybean meal, investors can consider exiting long positions when it continues to rise; for soybean oil, it is advisable to wait and see [57][58]. - Palm oil investors can consider buying on pullbacks [59][60]. - For rapeseed meal, investors can consider buying near - term contracts and selling far - term contracts [61][62]. - The upside space of cotton prices is expected to be limited [63][64]. - The sugar price has certain support at the bottom [66][68]. - Apples are expected to run strongly in the short - term [70][71]. - For live pigs, investors can consider short - selling on rebounds [71][72]. - For eggs, investors can continue to hold short positions and look for opportunities to add short positions on rebounds [73][76]. - For corn, it is advisable to wait and see; corn starch may follow the corn market [77][79]. Summary by Related Catalogs Treasury Bonds - Last trading day, most Treasury bond futures closed down. The central bank had net liquidity injections in October. The macro - economic recovery momentum needs strengthening, and the Treasury bond futures are expected to have no trend - like market [5]. Stock Index - Last trading day, stock index futures showed mixed performance. The A - share new account opening data in October 2025 decreased year - on - year but increased in the first 10 months. The domestic economic recovery momentum is weak, but the asset valuation is low and the market sentiment is warming up. It is expected to have little risk of a sharp decline [7][9]. Precious Metals - Last trading day, gold and silver futures closed down. The global trade and financial environment is complex, which is beneficial to precious metals, but the short - term rise is large, and the pricing is full [11]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils - Last trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures continued to correct. In the medium - term, the prices are dominated by industry supply - demand. The demand for rebar is still decreasing year - on - year, and the inventory pressure is obvious [13][14]. Iron Ore - Last trading day, iron ore futures continued to correct. The demand has declined, the supply is expected to increase, and the inventory has risen. The supply - demand pattern has weakened [16]. Coke and Coking Coal - Last trading day, coke and coking coal futures fell sharply. The supply of coking coal is slightly tight, and the demand for coke is normal. The futures may continue to be strong in the short - term [18][19]. Ferroalloys - Last trading day, manganese - silicon and silicon - iron futures closed down. The supply is still in excess in the short - term, and the cost is rising. There may be long - buying opportunities at low levels [21][22]. Crude Oil - Last trading day, INE crude oil rose and then fell. The Baker Hughes rig count increased, and OPEC will suspend production increases, which is expected to support oil prices [23][24]. Fuel Oil - Last trading day, fuel oil fluctuated downwards. The supply in Singapore has recovered, which is negative, but there are also positive factors such as sanctions on Russia [26][27]. Polyolefins - Last trading day, the PP market in Hangzhou and the LLDPE market in Yuyao had some price adjustments. The supply is affected by maintenance, the inventory is low, and the demand is in the peak season, so the market may rebound [29]. Synthetic Rubber - Last trading day, synthetic rubber futures closed down. The cost is weak, and the supply and demand are both affected. It is expected to fluctuate [31][33]. Natural Rubber - Last trading day, natural rubber futures closed down. The supply is affected by weather, and the demand and inventory are also changing. There may be long - buying opportunities [34][35]. PVC - Last trading day, PVC futures closed down. The supply is in excess, and the demand is weak. The price may have limited downward space and needs improvement in the fundamentals [36][37]. Urea - Last trading day, urea futures closed up. The supply is gradually recovering, the demand is affected by the season, and the profit is narrowing. The downside space is limited [38]. PX - Last trading day, PX futures closed down. The supply and demand structure has improved, and it may fluctuate and adjust in the short - term [39]. PTA - Last trading day, PTA futures closed down. The supply is affected by maintenance, the demand is relatively stable, and the processing fee is low. It may fluctuate in the short - term [40]. Ethylene Glycol - Last trading day, ethylene glycol futures closed down. The supply is increasing, the inventory may accumulate, and it may fluctuate weakly in the short - term [41]. Short - Fiber - Last trading day, short - fiber futures closed down. The supply is at a relatively high level, the demand is improving, and it may follow the cost to fluctuate [42]. Bottle - Grade Chips - Last trading day, bottle - grade chips futures closed down. The supply is increasing, the demand is slightly reduced, and it may follow the cost side to fluctuate [43]. Lithium Carbonate - Last trading day, lithium carbonate futures closed down. The supply is at a high level, and the demand in the energy - storage and power - battery sectors is improving. Attention should be paid to consumption sustainability [44][45]. Copper - Last trading day, copper futures closed down. The macro - data and the demand are not good, and the supply is also affected. It is in a stage of adjustment [46][47]. Aluminum - Last trading day, aluminum and alumina futures closed down. The supply of alumina is in excess, and the production of electrolytic aluminum may be affected by winter. The price may run at a high level [48][50]. Zinc - Last trading day, zinc futures closed down. The supply is affected by mining problems, and the demand is weak. It is expected to fluctuate in a range [51][52]. Lead - Last trading day, lead futures closed down. The supply of primary lead is increasing, and the demand is affected by high prices. Caution is needed when chasing long positions [53][54]. Tin - Last trading day, tin futures closed down. The supply is tight, and the demand has certain support. The price may fluctuate strongly [55]. Nickel - Last trading day, nickel futures closed down. The supply has concerns, and the demand is affected by the real - estate market. It may fluctuate [56]. Soybean Meal and Soybean Oil - Last trading day, soybean meal futures closed down, and soybean oil futures closed flat. The supply of soybeans is relatively loose, and the demand for soybean meal and soybean oil has different trends. Different strategies are suggested for them [57][58]. Palm Oil - The Malaysian palm oil rebounded. The inventory in China is at a medium level. Investors can consider buying on pullbacks [59][60]. Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - The Canadian rapeseed market is volatile. The import of rapeseed in China has decreased, and the inventory of rapeseed, rapeseed meal, and rapeseed oil is at different levels. Different strategies are suggested [61][62]. Cotton - Last trading day, domestic and foreign cotton futures fell. The Sino - US trade situation is favorable in the medium - long term, but the short - term price is affected by harvest pressure and domestic supply - demand [63][64]. Sugar - Last trading day, sugar futures rose and then fell. The global sugar supply is expected to be in excess, but the domestic supply pressure in the fourth quarter is not large, and the price has support at the bottom [66][68]. Apples - Last trading day, apple futures fell sharply. The quality of apples this year is poor, and the opening price is higher. It is expected to run strongly in the short - term [70][71]. Live Pigs - The price of live pigs is weakening. The supply is increasing, and investors can consider short - selling on rebounds [71][72]. Eggs - The price of eggs is stable. The supply is at a high level, and the demand is expected to be weak. Investors can continue to hold short positions and look for opportunities to add short positions on rebounds [73][76]. Corn and Corn Starch - Last trading day, corn and corn - starch futures closed down. The harvest pressure of corn continues, and the supply and demand of corn starch have different trends. Corn may be under pressure, and corn starch may follow the corn market [77][79].

Group 1: Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given report Group 2: Core Views - The report covers various sectors including bonds, stocks, precious metals, and commodities, providing analyses and trading suggestions for each sector. For example, it expects that treasury bond futures may not have a trending market and advises caution; stock index futures are expected to have limited downside risk and suggests seizing opportunities to go long; precious metals are currently over - priced, and it is recommended to take profits on long positions and then wait and see [6][9][11]. Group 3: Sector - Specific Summaries Bonds - **Treasury Bonds**: The previous trading day saw mixed results for treasury bond futures. The central bank conducted 783 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net withdrawal of 259 billion yuan. China's October S&P manufacturing PMI showed a slowdown in the expansion trend. Given the current economic situation, treasury bond futures are expected to have no trending market, and caution is advised [5][6]. Stocks - **Stock Index**: The previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed performance. With the release of new immigration and entry - exit policies, and considering the current economic situation (stable but with weak recovery momentum), combined with low domestic asset valuations and sufficient economic resilience, along with the inflow of incremental funds and the easing of Sino - US economic and trade uncertainties, it is expected that there is limited downside risk, and opportunities to go long can be seized [8][9]. Precious Metals - **Gold and Silver**: The previous trading day, gold and silver futures showed small increases. Fed officials' remarks suggest potential interest rate cuts. The complex global trade and financial environment, the "de - globalization" and "de - dollarization" trends, and the slowdown of the US labor market are all favorable for precious metals. However, due to the recent large increase in prices, it is recommended to take profits on long positions and then wait and see [11]. Commodities - **Steel Products (Thread, Hot - Rolled Coil)**: The previous trading day, steel product futures slightly declined. In the medium term, the price of steel products is dominated by industrial supply - demand logic. The demand for rebar is still in a year - on - year decline, and the supply side has over - capacity issues. Considering the current high inventory, the price of rebar is expected to remain weak, and hot - rolled coils may follow a similar trend. Investors can focus on short - selling opportunities at high prices during rebounds [13][14]. - **Iron Ore**: The previous trading day, iron ore futures significantly declined. The demand for iron ore has decreased, while the supply is expected to increase year - on - year in the fourth quarter, and the port inventory is rising. The market supply - demand pattern has weakened, and investors can focus on short - selling opportunities at high prices [16]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures continued to decline. The supply of coking coal is slightly tight, and the price of coke is facing an upward adjustment. From a technical perspective, the futures may continue to be strong in the short term, and investors can focus on buying opportunities during pullbacks [18][19]. - **Ferroalloys**: The previous trading day, ferroalloy futures showed small increases. The supply of ferroalloys is currently in a state of over - supply, but the cost is rising, and the downward space is limited. There may be short - term disturbances in supply reduction expectations, and investors can consider long - position opportunities at low prices [21][22]. - **Crude Oil**: The previous trading day, INE crude oil oscillated upward. The increase in the number of US drilling rigs does not necessarily lead to an increase in production. US sanctions on Russian oil companies and OPEC's decision to suspend production increases are all favorable for oil prices. Investors can focus on long - position opportunities [23][24]. - **Fuel Oil**: The previous trading day, fuel oil oscillated upward. The recovery of Singapore's fuel oil supply is negative for prices, while the sanctions on Russia and the reduction of Sino - US trade frictions are positive. Investors can focus on long - position opportunities [26][27]. - **Polyolefins**: The previous trading day, the PP and LLDPE markets showed some adjustments. In November, the impact of maintenance is expected to be high, and the inventory is low. November is the peak season for demand, so the market is expected to rebound. For now, it is recommended to wait and see [29]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The previous trading day, synthetic rubber futures declined. The cost side is weak, and the price is expected to have limited downward space. It is recommended to pay attention to raw material prices and supply changes. The market is expected to oscillate [31][33]. - **Natural Rubber**: The previous trading day, natural rubber futures declined. The supply is affected by bad weather, and the demand is weak. The inventory is decreasing. It is recommended to pay attention to production area conditions and demand expectations, and there may be long - position opportunities [34][35]. - **PVC**: The previous trading day, PVC futures declined. The current supply - demand situation is still oversupplied, but the downward space is limited. It is recommended to pay attention to export and supply reduction after the festival [36][37]. - **Urea**: The previous trading day, urea futures declined. In the short term, it is necessary to pay attention to export policies and seasonal recovery signals of agricultural demand. The price is expected to fluctuate within a narrow range, and the downward space is limited [38]. - **PX**: The previous trading day, PX futures increased. The supply - demand structure has improved, and the cost side is affected by crude oil fluctuations. The price is expected to oscillate, and investors can participate within a certain range while paying attention to crude oil changes and macro - policies [39]. - **PTA**: The previous trading day, PTA futures increased. The supply side has some adjustments, and the demand side is relatively stable. The processing fee is low, and the inventory is low. The price is expected to oscillate, and investors should be cautious and pay attention to oil prices [40]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The previous trading day, ethylene glycol futures declined. The supply is increasing, and the inventory may accumulate slightly. However, the demand is expected to improve, and the cost side sentiment is positive. The price is expected to oscillate, and investors can participate within a certain range while paying attention to port inventory and imports [41]. - **Short - Fiber**: The previous trading day, short - fiber futures declined. The supply is at a relatively high level, and the demand is improving, but the cost - driving force is limited. The price is expected to oscillate with the cost, and investors should pay attention to cost changes and macro - policy adjustments [42]. - **Bottle Chips**: The previous trading day, bottle chip futures increased. The processing fee has decreased, the supply is increasing slightly, and the export growth is slowing down. The price is expected to oscillate with the cost, and investors should control risks [43]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The previous trading day, lithium carbonate futures declined. The supply is at a high level, and the demand is also strong, with the inventory gradually decreasing. It is recommended to pay attention to the sustainability of consumption [44][45]. - **Copper**: The previous trading day, copper futures declined. The Sino - US trade negotiation is in a stalemate, and the Fed's interest rate cut has a complex impact on copper prices. The supply of copper concentrate is tight, and high prices suppress demand. The price is expected to enter a sideways consolidation phase [46][47]. - **Aluminum**: The previous trading day, aluminum futures showed mixed results. The supply of alumina is in an oversupply situation, and the production of electrolytic aluminum may be affected by winter restrictions. High prices may suppress demand, but the inventory is decreasing. The price is expected to remain at a high level [48][49][50]. - **Zinc**: The previous trading day, zinc futures increased. The supply of zinc concentrate is tight, and the production of refined zinc is limited. The demand is weak. The price is expected to continue to oscillate [51][52]. - **Lead**: The previous trading day, lead futures increased. The supply of primary lead is increasing, and the supply of recycled lead is recovering slowly. High prices suppress demand. The price is supported by low inventory and cost, but the upward space is limited, and it is recommended to be cautious when going long [53][54]. - **Tin**: The previous trading day, tin futures declined. The supply of tin ore is tight, and the demand has certain support. The inventory is decreasing. The price is expected to oscillate strongly [54]. - **Nickel**: The previous trading day, nickel futures declined. The macro - environment has improved, but the supply - demand situation is complex. The supply of high - grade nickel ore is tight, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to oscillate [55]. - **Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal**: The previous trading day, soybean meal futures increased, and soybean oil futures decreased. Sino - US trade relations are expected to improve, and the Brazilian soybean sowing is progressing smoothly. The supply of soybeans is relatively loose, and the demand for soybean meal is expected to grow moderately, while the demand for soybean oil is suppressed. It is recommended to consider taking profits on long - positions in soybean meal and wait and see for soybean oil [56][57]. - **Palm Oil**: The previous trading day, palm oil futures declined. The supply is increasing, and the market is expected to be weak. It is recommended to focus on short - selling opportunities during rebounds [60]. - **Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil**: The previous trading day, rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil futures increased. The supply of eggs is high, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to hold short - positions and consider adding short - positions during rebounds [61][62]. - **Cotton**: The previous trading day, cotton futures oscillated. Sino - US trade relations are favorable in the long - term, but short - term international cotton prices are under pressure. Domestic cotton has a strong production expectation, and the demand is neutral - weak. The price is expected to have limited upward space [63][64]. - **Sugar**: The previous trading day, sugar futures rebounded. Brazilian sugar production is expected to increase, and the global sugar supply is expected to be in surplus, which restricts price rebounds. The domestic supply pressure in the fourth quarter is not large, and the price has certain support at the bottom [65][66][67]. - **Apple**: The previous trading day, apple futures declined. The quality of this year's apples is poor, and the opening price is higher than last year. The price is expected to be strong in the short term [69][70][71]. - **Live Pigs**: The previous trading day, live pig futures declined. The pig price is expected to be weak, and the supply is increasing. It is recommended to focus on short - selling opportunities during rebounds [72][73]. - **Eggs**: The previous trading day, egg futures increased. The supply of eggs is high, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to hold short - positions and consider adding short - positions during rebounds [74][75]. - **Corn and Starch**: The previous trading day, corn and starch futures increased. The price of corn is affected by the rise in soybean prices. The inventory situation is complex, and the demand is growing slightly. The price of corn is expected to be under pressure, and starch may follow the trend of corn [76][77].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - For Treasury bonds, it is expected that there will be no trending market, and caution should be maintained [5][6]. - For stock index futures, the risk of a significant decline is low, and one can choose the right time to go long [8][9]. - For precious metals, the short - term pricing is relatively full. After taking profits on long positions, one can wait and see [11][12]. - For rebar and hot - rolled coils, the prices may remain weak in the medium term. Investors can look for short - selling opportunities at high levels during rebounds and manage their positions carefully [13]. - For iron ore, the supply - demand pattern has weakened. Investors can look for short - selling opportunities at high levels and manage their positions carefully [15]. - For coking coal and coke, the futures may continue to be strong in the short term. Investors can look for buying opportunities during pullbacks and manage their positions carefully [17]. - For ferroalloys, there may be short - term supply surplus. One can consider long positions at low levels when the spot falls into the loss range again [20]. - For crude oil, investors can focus on long - buying opportunities for the main contract [21][22]. - For fuel oil, investors can focus on long - buying opportunities for the main contract [24][25]. - For polyolefins, investors can focus on short - selling opportunities [26][27]. - For synthetic rubber, it is expected to fluctuate [28][29]. - For natural rubber, one can focus on long - buying opportunities [30][31]. - For PVC, one should focus on changes in the supply side [32][33]. - For urea, the downside space is limited [34][35]. - For p - xylene (PX), in the short term, it may fluctuate and adjust. One can participate within the range, control positions, and be vigilant about crude oil changes [36]. - For PTA, in the short term, it may fluctuate. One should view it with caution, control risks, and pay attention to oil price changes [37]. - For ethylene glycol, in the short term, it may fluctuate. One can participate within the range and pay attention to port inventory and import changes [39]. - For short - fiber, in the short term, it may fluctuate following the cost. One should control risks and pay attention to cost changes and macro - policy adjustments [40]. - For bottle chips, in the future, it is expected to fluctuate following the cost. One should control risks [41][42]. - For lithium carbonate, pay attention to the sustainability of consumption [43]. - For copper, it may enter a sideways consolidation phase after the previous rise [44][45]. - For aluminum, it may maintain a high - level oscillation [45][46]. - For zinc, it is expected to continue to oscillate [47][48]. - For lead, be cautious about chasing long positions [48][49]. - For tin, it is expected to oscillate and strengthen [50]. - For nickel, it is expected to oscillate [52]. - For soybean oil and soybean meal, one can consider long - buying opportunities for soybean meal at the support level after adjustment, and temporarily wait and see for soybean oil [53][55]. - For palm oil, one can consider buying on pullbacks [56][57]. - For rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil, one can consider buying rapeseed oil on pullbacks [58][60]. - For cotton, the upside space of cotton prices is expected to be limited [63][64]. - For sugar, there is certain support below the price [65][68]. - For apples, it is expected to run strongly [69][70]. - For live pigs, one can consider short - selling opportunities on rebounds [71][73]. - For eggs, one can continue to hold short positions and look for opportunities to add short positions on rebounds [74][75]. - For corn and starch, it is advisable to wait and see for corn, and starch may follow the corn market [77][78]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Treasury Bonds - On the previous trading day, Treasury bond futures closed with mixed performance. The central bank conducted 355.1 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 187.1 billion yuan. China's October official manufacturing PMI declined, while the non - manufacturing PMI rose slightly. The macro - economic recovery momentum needs to be strengthened, and the Treasury bond yield is at a relatively low level [5]. Stock Index Futures - On the previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed trends. The CSRC and the Asset Management Association of China issued relevant guidelines and rules for public - offering funds. The domestic economy is stable, but the recovery momentum is weak, and corporate profit growth is low. However, domestic asset valuations are low, and the market sentiment has warmed up. It is expected that the risk of a significant decline is low, and one can choose the right time to go long [7][8]. Precious Metals - On the previous trading day, gold and silver futures rose. The eurozone's October CPI and core CPI data were released. The government issued a tax policy on gold. The global trade and financial environment is complex, and the trends of "de - globalization" and "de - dollarization" are favorable for precious metals. However, the recent increase has been large, and the short - term pricing is relatively full [10][11]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils - On the previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures slightly corrected. In the medium term, the demand for rebar is still declining year - on - year, but there is a slight improvement in the traditional peak season. The supply side has over - capacity, and the weekly output of rebar has declined. The inventory is higher than last year, and the price may remain weak. The trend of hot - rolled coils may be similar to that of rebar. Investors can look for short - selling opportunities at high levels during rebounds [13]. Iron Ore - On the previous trading day, iron ore futures slightly corrected. The national hot - metal daily output has decreased, the supply of iron ore is expected to increase year - on - year in the fourth quarter, and the port inventory has risen. The supply - demand pattern has weakened, and investors can look for short - selling opportunities at high levels [15]. Coking Coal and Coke - On the previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures slightly declined. The supply of coking coal is slightly tight, and the demand is fair. The third - round price increase of coke procurement has started but has not been fully implemented. The supply of coke has decreased, and it is uncertain whether steel mills will accept the price increase. The futures may continue to be strong in the short term, and investors can look for buying opportunities during pullbacks [17]. Ferroalloys - On the previous trading day, manganese - silicon and silicon - iron futures declined. The supply of manganese ore has increased slightly, and the cost of ferroalloys has risen. The output of ferroalloys remains high, and the demand is weak, with short - term supply surplus. One can consider long positions at low levels when the spot falls into the loss range again [19][20]. Crude Oil - On the previous trading day, INE crude oil fluctuated within a range. The CFTC持仓 report was suspended. The number of US oil and gas rigs decreased. The proportion of Russian crude oil in HPCL's supply has decreased. It is expected that it is difficult for US crude oil production to increase significantly, and market attention has shifted to the OPEC meeting. Investors can focus on long - buying opportunities [21][22]. Fuel Oil - On the previous trading day, fuel oil slightly oscillated. The supply of Singapore fuel oil has recovered, which is negative for prices. Russia being sanctioned and the reduction of Sino - US trade frictions are positive for prices. Investors can focus on long - buying opportunities [23][24][25]. Polyolefins - On the previous trading day, the price of polyolefins declined. In November, the impact of maintenance is expected to be 416,000 tons, and the inventory is low year - on - year. November is the peak season for demand. There is support from maintenance and inventory, and the market is expected to rebound. Investors can focus on short - selling opportunities [26][27]. Synthetic Rubber - On the previous trading day, synthetic rubber futures declined. The cost is weak, the supply has decreased slightly, the demand has declined, and the inventory is expected to decrease. It is expected to oscillate [28][29]. Natural Rubber - On the previous trading day, natural rubber futures declined. The supply in overseas and domestic production areas has been affected by weather, and the demand has declined. The inventory has decreased. One should focus on long - buying opportunities [30][31]. PVC - On the previous trading day, PVC futures declined. The supply is in excess, but the downward space is limited. The production capacity utilization rate has increased, the pre - sales have increased, and the inventory has decreased slightly. One should focus on changes in the supply side [32][33]. Urea - On the previous trading day, urea futures declined. The supply has increased slightly, the demand is affected by the end of autumn fertilizer orders, the cost is stable, and the profit has narrowed. The inventory is lower than expected. The downside space is limited [34][35]. p - Xylene (PX) - On the previous trading day, PX futures declined. The PX load has increased, and the import has decreased. The short - term supply - demand structure has improved, and it may fluctuate and adjust [36]. PTA - On the previous trading day, PTA futures declined. The supply load has decreased slightly, and the demand is stable. The processing fee has slightly recovered, and the inventory is low. In the short term, it may fluctuate, and one should pay attention to oil price changes [37]. Ethylene Glycol - On the previous trading day, ethylene glycol futures declined. The supply load has increased, the port inventory has decreased, and the demand support is limited. In the short term, it may fluctuate, and one should pay attention to port inventory and import changes [38][39]. Short - Fiber - On the previous trading day, short - fiber futures declined. The supply load has decreased, the demand has improved slightly, and the processing fee has adjusted. In the short term, it may fluctuate following the cost, and one should pay attention to cost changes and macro - policy adjustments [40]. Bottle Chips - On the previous trading day, bottle - chip futures declined. The processing fee has decreased, the supply load has increased, and the export growth has slowed down. It is expected to fluctuate following the cost [41][42]. Lithium Carbonate - On the previous trading day, lithium carbonate futures declined. The supply is at a high level, and the consumption in the energy - storage and power - battery sectors has improved. The inventory has decreased, and one should pay attention to the sustainability of consumption [43]. Copper - On the previous trading day, copper futures declined. The Sino - US summit has ended, and the Fed has cut interest rates, but the overall progress is not as optimistic as expected. The supply of copper concentrate is tight, and high copper prices have suppressed consumption. The inventory has increased slightly. It may enter a sideways consolidation phase [44][45]. Aluminum - On the previous trading day, aluminum futures rose, and alumina futures declined. The supply of bauxite in the north has not recovered, and the alumina market is in excess supply. The production of electrolytic aluminum may be affected by winter restrictions, and the consumption is expected to decline. The inventory has increased slightly. It may maintain a high - level oscillation [45][46]. Zinc - On the previous trading day, zinc futures declined. The production of zinc mines is restricted, and the processing fee is under pressure. The demand is weak, and the inventory has decreased slightly. It is expected to continue to oscillate [47][48]. Lead - On the previous trading day, lead futures declined. The production of primary lead is stable, and the production of recycled lead has recovered slowly. High lead prices have suppressed demand, and the inventory has decreased. One should be cautious about chasing long positions [48][49]. Tin - On the previous trading day, tin futures rose. The supply of tin ore is tight, and the demand has certain resilience. The inventory has decreased. It is expected to oscillate and strengthen [50]. Nickel - On the previous trading day, nickel futures rose. The Fed has cut interest rates, and the Sino - US talks have released positive signals. The supply of nickel ore is expected to be affected by policy changes, and the downstream demand is weak. The inventory is relatively stable but at a high level. It is expected to oscillate [51][52]. Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - On the previous trading day, soybean - meal futures rose, and soybean - oil futures declined. Sino - US trade friction is expected to improve, and Brazilian soybean sowing is progressing smoothly. The soybean - crushing volume remains high, the inventory of soybean meal has decreased, and the inventory of soybean oil is still under pressure. The consumption of soybean oil is affected, and the demand for soybean meal is expected to increase slightly. One can consider long - buying opportunities for soybean meal at the support level after adjustment, and temporarily wait and see for soybean oil [53][55]. Palm Oil - On the previous trading day, palm - oil futures declined. Malaysian palm - oil exports have increased, and China's palm - oil imports have decreased. The inventory is at a medium level. One can consider buying on pullbacks [56][57]. Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - On the previous trading day, rapeseed - meal and rapeseed - oil futures were affected by the price of other oils. Sino - US trade negotiations have certain results. The import of rapeseed and rapeseed meal has decreased, and the import of rapeseed oil has increased. The inventory of rapeseed has decreased, and the inventory of rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil is at a high level. One can consider buying rapeseed oil on pullbacks [58][60]. Cotton - On the previous trading day, cotton futures oscillated. Sino - US leaders have met, and textile and clothing exports have shown a stable performance. The domestic cotton harvest is earlier, and the planting area and output have increased. The cotton price is expected to have limited upside space [61][63][64]. Sugar - On the previous trading day, sugar futures declined. Brazil's sugar production has slightly exceeded expectations, and the global sugar supply is expected to be in surplus. China's sugar import has increased year - on - year. The northern region has started sugar production, and the southern region will start in December. There is certain support below the price [65][68]. Apples - On the previous trading day, apple futures oscillated at a high level. The opening price of late - maturing apples is higher than last year, and the quality is poor. It is expected to run strongly [69][70]. Live Pigs - On the previous trading day, live - pig futures declined. The pig price is expected to decline weakly. The supply is expected to increase in the second half of the month, and one can consider short - selling opportunities on rebounds [71][73]. Eggs - On the previous trading day, egg futures declined. The cost of eggs has increased slightly, and the profit is low. The egg - laying hen inventory is at a high level, and the supply is expected to increase. The consumption is weak after the festival. One can continue to hold short positions and look for opportunities to add short positions on rebounds [74][75]. Corn and Starch - On the previous trading day, corn and starch futures rose. The price of corn is affected by the price of soybeans. The new - season corn harvest is almost completed, and the inventory of the northern port is expected to increase. The demand for corn is growing slightly, and the price may be under pressure. The demand for starch has improved slightly, and it may follow the corn market [76][77][78].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes multiple commodities including bonds, stocks, precious metals, and various futures. It provides market trends, influencing factors, and investment strategies for each commodity [5][9][11]. - Overall, it is expected that the bond futures market will have no significant trend and requires caution; the stock index futures market has a low risk of a sharp decline and presents opportunities to go long; the precious metals market is fully priced and suggests taking profits and waiting; and different futures markets have their own specific trends and investment strategies [7][9][11]. Summary by Commodity Bonds - The previous trading day saw most bond futures closing higher, with the 30 - year, 10 - year, and 2 - year contracts having different performance. The central bank conducted 3426 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net injection of 1301 billion yuan [5]. - With the current macro - data stable but the recovery momentum of the macro - economy still to be strengthened, the bond futures are expected to have no trend and require caution [7]. Stock Index - The previous trading day had mixed performance in stock index futures. Although the domestic economic recovery momentum is weak and corporate profit growth is low, the low valuation of domestic assets and sufficient economic resilience, along with improved market sentiment and reduced Sino - US economic and trade uncertainties, suggest a low risk of a sharp decline and opportunities to go long [9]. Precious Metals - The previous trading day had the gold and silver contracts with different price movements. The complex global trade and financial environment, along with the slowdown of the US labor market and expected Fed rate cuts, are favorable for precious metals. However, due to the large increase and full pricing, it is recommended to take profits on long positions and wait [11]. Steel Products (Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil) - The previous trading day saw a slight correction in rebar and hot - rolled coil futures. In the medium term, the rebar price is likely to remain weak due to the downward trend in the real estate industry and high inventory. The hot - rolled coil is expected to have a similar trend. Investors can look for opportunities to short at high levels during rebounds [13][14]. Iron Ore - The previous trading day had the iron ore futures fluctuating. The current supply - demand pattern supports the price in the short term but may weaken in the medium term. Technically, the short - term trend is strong, and investors can look for opportunities to buy on dips [16]. Coking Coal and Coke - The previous trading day had coking coal and coke futures rising and then falling. The supply of coking coal is slightly tight, and the demand for coke has a price increase under discussion. Technically, the short - term trend may be strong, and investors can look for opportunities to buy on dips [18][19]. Ferroalloys - The previous trading day had different performance in manganese silicon and silicon iron contracts. The supply of ferroalloys is currently in excess, and the cost is rising. The short - term supply is expected to remain in excess, and investors can consider long positions at low levels when the price falls [21][22]. Crude Oil - The previous trading day had the INE crude oil rising and then falling. Although the Baker Hughes rig count increased, the growth of US crude oil production is still challenging. The sanctions on Russian oil companies are favorable for the price, and the market may focus on the OPEC meeting. Investors can look for opportunities to go long [23][24]. Fuel Oil - The previous trading day had the fuel oil futures moving downward. The recovery of Singapore's fuel oil supply is negative for the price, while the sanctions on Russia and reduced Sino - US trade frictions are positive. Investors can look for opportunities to go long [26][27]. Synthetic Rubber - The previous trading day had the synthetic rubber contract rising. The supply - side is expected to have more short - and medium - term maintenance, driving the market to stop falling and rebound. It is expected to oscillate, and investors should pay attention to the raw material market and supply - side changes [29]. Natural Rubber - The previous trading day had different performance in natural rubber contracts. The supply is affected by weather, and the demand has a slight increase. The inventory has decreased significantly. It is recommended to look for opportunities to go long [31]. PVC - The previous trading day had the PVC contract rising. The current oversupply situation continues, but the downward space is limited. It is necessary to wait for the improvement of the fundamentals. Investors should pay attention to the supply - side changes [34]. Urea - The previous trading day had the urea contract falling. In the short term, it is necessary to pay attention to export policy changes and the seasonal recovery of agricultural demand. It is expected to fluctuate narrowly, and the downward space is limited [37]. PX - The previous trading day had the PX contract falling. The short - term supply - demand structure has improved, and the PXN spread is relatively strong. It is expected to oscillate and adjust, and investors can participate in the range and pay attention to macro - policy changes [40]. PTA - The previous trading day had the PTA contract falling. The supply is adjusted, and the demand is relatively stable. The processing fee is slightly repaired. It is expected to oscillate, and investors should pay attention to oil price changes [41][43]. Ethylene Glycol - The previous trading day had the ethylene glycol contract falling. The supply is increasing, and the inventory may slightly accumulate. However, the demand is expected to improve, and it is expected to oscillate. Investors should pay attention to port inventory and import changes [44]. Short - Fiber - The previous trading day had the short - fiber contract falling. The supply remains at a relatively high level, and the demand has improved. It is expected to oscillate following the cost, and investors should pay attention to cost changes and macro - policy adjustments [45]. Bottle Chips - The previous trading day had the bottle chips contract falling. The processing fee has decreased, and the supply has increased slightly. The export growth has slowed down. It is expected to oscillate following the cost, and investors should control risks [46]. Lithium Carbonate - The previous trading day had the lithium carbonate contract rising. The supply is at a high level, and the demand in the energy storage and power battery sectors has improved. The social inventory is gradually decreasing, and investors should pay attention to the sustainability of consumption [47]. Copper - The previous trading day had the Shanghai copper fluctuating downward. The unmet market expectations from the Sino - US negotiation and the uncertain Fed rate - cut progress affected the price. The Indonesian copper mine not resuming production supports the price. It is recommended to wait and see [48][49]. Tin - The previous trading day had the tin contract falling. The supply is tight, and the demand has certain resilience. It is expected to oscillate and be on the strong side [51]. Nickel - The previous trading day had the nickel contract falling. The macro - sentiment has improved, but the supply is still in an over - supply situation, and the demand is weak. It is expected to oscillate [52][53]. Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - The previous trading day had both soybean oil and soybean meal contracts rising. The Sino - US trade friction improvement is favorable for US soybean exports. The soybean supply is relatively loose, and the demand for soybean meal is expected to grow moderately. It is recommended to consider long positions for soybean meal after adjustment and wait and see for soybean oil [54][55]. Palm Oil - The palm oil price rebounded slightly after four days of decline. The reduction of Indonesian inventory and the Sino - US trade negotiation results are factors. It is recommended to consider going long on dips [56][57]. Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - The rapeseed futures rose following the soybean futures. The Canadian rapeseed crushing volume increased. The import data of rapeseed, rapeseed oil, and rapeseed meal in China changed. It is recommended to consider going long on dips for rapeseed oil [58][60]. Cotton - The previous trading day had the domestic cotton futures oscillating. The Sino - US negotiation is expected to be good, but the domestic cotton has a strong expectation of a good harvest, and the price has limited upward space. It is expected to face pressure [61][63]. Sugar - The previous trading day had the sugar futures falling. The global sugar supply is expected to be in surplus, which restricts the price rebound. The domestic sugar import and production data are provided. The price has certain support at the bottom [65][67]. Apples - The previous trading day had the apple futures oscillating at a high level. The quality problem is a concern, and the opening price of late - maturing apples is higher than last year. It is expected to be strong [69][70]. Pigs - The previous trading day had the pig futures falling. The supply is expected to increase in the second half of the month, and it is recommended to consider shorting on rebounds [71][73]. Eggs - The previous trading day had the egg futures rising slightly. The supply is expected to increase in October, and the consumption may be lower than expected. It is recommended to hold short positions and look for opportunities to add short positions on rebounds [74][75]. Corn and Corn Starch - The previous trading day had both corn and corn starch futures falling. The new - season corn harvest is advancing, and the price is under pressure. The corn starch demand has recovered slightly but is expected to follow the corn market. It is recommended to wait and see [76][78].

美联储内部分歧加大，但可能延续降息路径 ——美联储 10 月会议解读 研究员：万亮 邮箱：xnqh_wl@swfutures.com 期货从业证书号：F03116714 交易咨询从业证书号：Z0019298 报告时间：2025.10.31 1 一、10 月美联储会议主要看点 北京时间 10 月 30 日凌晨，美联储公开市场委员会（FOMC）以 10 票赞成、 2 票反对的结果将利率下调至 3.75%-4%的区间。这是年内的第二次降息，贴现 利率也同步下调至 4.00%（此前为 4.25%）。除了调整利率，美联储还宣布将 于 12 月 1 日结束量化紧缩。 美联储 FOMC 声明显示，美联储理事米兰再次投了反对票，他希望美联储 更快地降息 50 个基点。堪萨斯城联邦储备银行行长施密德与米兰一样持反对 意见，但他更希望美联储维持利率不变。声明指出，宣布自 2025 年 12 月 1 日起结束资产负债表缩减，到期美国国债将全部再投资，抵押贷款支持证券 （MBS）本金偿还将全部用于再投资于短期国债。今年以来通胀有所上升，仍 处于高位"。现有数据显示经济正以"温和速度扩张"，但前景不确定性依然 较高。就业方面的下行风险 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings There is no information about the report industry investment ratings in the provided content. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Treasury Bonds**: Expected to have no trend - based market, maintain a cautious stance [6][7] - **Stock Index Futures**: Low risk of significant decline, consider taking long positions opportunistically [9][10] - **Precious Metals**: Pricing is relatively full, take profit on previous long positions and then wait and see [11][12] - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils**: The mid - term weakness of rebar prices is hard to change, and hot - rolled coils may follow a similar trend. Look for short - selling opportunities at high levels during rebounds [13][14] - **Iron Ore**: The short - term supply - demand pattern supports prices, but it may weaken in the medium term. Look for buying opportunities during pullbacks [16] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Consider buying during pullbacks [18][19] - **Ferroalloys**: May continue to have oversupply in the short term. Consider long positions at low levels when the spot falls into the loss range again after a decline [21][22] - **Crude Oil**: Temporarily wait and see [24][25] - **Fuel Oil**: Look for long - buying opportunities [26][27] - **Synthetic Rubber**: Oscillate [28][29] - **Natural Rubber**: Look for long - buying opportunities [30][31] - **PVC**: Pay attention to changes on the supply side [32][35] - **Urea**: Limited downside space [36][37] - **Para - Xylene (PX)**: May have an oscillatory adjustment in the short term, with support at the bottom. Consider participating at low levels [38][39] - **PTA**: May oscillate in the short term. Be cautiously bullish and pay attention to oil price changes [40] - **Ethylene Glycol**: May oscillate in the short term. Participate within a range and pay attention to port inventory and import changes [41][42] - **Short - Fiber**: May oscillate following costs. Control risks and pay attention to cost changes and macro - policy adjustments [43] - **Bottle Chips**: Expected to oscillate following the cost side. Control risks [44][45] - **Lithium Carbonate**: Pay attention to the sustainability of consumption [46] - **Copper**: Look for long - buying opportunities [47][48] - **Tin**: May oscillate with an upward bias [49] - **Nickel**: Expected to oscillate [51] - **Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal**: Consider long positions for soybean meal after adjustment; temporarily wait and see for soybean oil [54][55] - **Palm Oil**: Temporarily wait and see [56][58] - **Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil**: Temporarily wait and see for rapeseed oil [59][60] - **Cotton**: Limited upside space for cotton prices [61][62] - **Sugar**: There is support at the bottom [64][67] - **Apples**: Expected to run strongly [69][71] - **Pigs**: Take profit on short positions in the short term and then wait and see. Wait for opportunities to sell short on rebounds [72][73] - **Eggs**: Hold short positions and look for opportunities to add short positions on rebounds [74][75] - **Corn and Starch**: It is advisable to wait and see for corn; corn starch may follow the corn market [76][77] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Treasury Bonds - Last trading day, treasury futures closed up across the board. The central bank conducted 475.3 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 315.8 billion yuan. ADP will release weekly US employment data. The current macro - data is stable, but the recovery momentum needs strengthening. The yield is relatively low, and the market risk preference has increased. It is expected that there will be no trend - based market [5][6] Stock Index Futures - Last trading day, stock index futures showed mixed performance. The domestic economy is stable, but the recovery momentum is weak, and corporate profit growth is low. However, domestic asset valuations are low, and the economy has sufficient resilience. Market sentiment has warmed up, and incremental funds have entered the market. The uncertainty in Sino - US economic and trade relations has eased, and the risk of significant decline is low [8][9] Precious Metals - Last trading day, gold and silver futures closed down. The US housing price index increased. The complex global trade and financial environment, the trend of "de - globalization" and "de - dollarization", and potential Fed rate cuts are beneficial to precious metals. However, the recent increase has been large, and the pricing is full [11] Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils - Last trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures rebounded slightly. In the medium term, prices are dominated by industry supply - demand logic. The real - estate industry's downward trend remains unchanged, and rebar demand is declining year - on - year. Although it is the traditional peak demand season, the inventory pressure is obvious. The basic logic of hot - rolled coils is similar to that of rebar [13][14] Iron Ore - Last trading day, iron ore futures rebounded significantly. The national hot - metal daily output remains at around 2.4 million tons, supporting prices. Although the import and domestic production of iron ore have increased quarter - on - quarter since the second quarter, the year - on - year decline in the first 9 months remains unchanged. The port inventory is lower than last year [16] Coking Coal and Coke - Last trading day, coking coal and coke futures declined slightly. Coking coal supply is slightly tight due to safety inspections, and demand is okay. The second - round increase in coke procurement prices is gradually being implemented. Coking profits are stable, and demand remains high [18] Ferroalloys - Last trading day, manganese - silicon futures closed down, and silicon - iron futures closed up. The manganese - ore shipment from Gabon decreased, and the Australian ore supply increased. The port manganese - ore inventory increased slightly, but the level is still low. The cost of ferroalloys has increased, and the supply is in short - term surplus [21] Crude Oil - Last trading day, INE crude oil oscillated downward but remained above the 5 - day moving average. The US government shutdown suspended the CFTC report. The number of US oil and gas rigs increased for the second consecutive week. India's Reliance Industries will comply with sanctions on Russia. The increase in US crude - oil production is difficult, and sanctions on Russia are beneficial to oil prices [23][24] Fuel Oil - Last trading day, fuel oil oscillated downward following crude oil. The sanctions on oil have increased market sentiment. The Asian high - sulfur and ultra - low - sulfur fuel - oil spreads are strong, and the Singapore fuel - oil supply is tight. Sanctions on Russia are beneficial to fuel - oil prices [26] Synthetic Rubber - Last trading day, synthetic rubber futures closed down. The short - and medium - term maintenance is expected to increase, which may drive the market to stop falling and rebound. The raw - material side is bearish, and the private - enterprise supply is expected to increase. The short - term market is weak, and it will oscillate [28] Natural Rubber - Last trading day, natural - rubber futures showed mixed performance. The market should focus on the weather in production areas and demand expectations. The new - rubber production is slow due to weather disturbances, and the raw - material purchase price has increased. The tire - enterprise capacity utilization has increased slightly, and the inventory has decreased significantly [30] PVC - Last trading day, PVC futures closed down. The oversupply situation continues, but the downward space is limited. After the holiday, focus on exports and supply reduction. The PVC production capacity utilization has decreased, and the demand from downstream industries has increased. The cost - profit situation is complex [32][33] Urea - Last trading day, urea futures closed down. In the short term, pay attention to export - policy changes and the seasonal recovery of agricultural demand. The supply pressure has eased, and the demand from the agricultural market has increased. The cost is stable, and the inventory is lower than expected [36] Para - Xylene (PX) - Last trading day, PX futures rose. The PXN spread is relatively strong, and the supply has slightly decreased. The cost - side crude oil has recovered. In the short term, PX may oscillate and adjust, with support at the bottom [38][39] PTA - Last trading day, PTA futures rose. The supply has changed, and the demand from the polyester industry is stable. The processing fee has been significantly under pressure, and the inventory is low. The cost - side crude oil has recovered. In the short term, it may oscillate [40] Ethylene Glycol - Last trading day, ethylene glycol futures closed down. The overall operating load has increased, and the port inventory has decreased. The downstream polyester industry's operating rate is stable, but the terminal demand support is limited. In the short term, it may oscillate [41][42] Short - Fiber - Last trading day, short - fiber futures rose. The device load has decreased, and the demand has improved. The processing fee is around 1,125 yuan/ton. In the short term, it may oscillate following costs [43] Bottle Chips - Last trading day, bottle - chip futures rose. The processing fee has decreased to around 450 yuan/ton. The factory load has increased, and the export growth has slowed down. It is expected to oscillate following the cost side [44][45] Lithium Carbonate - Last trading day, lithium - carbonate futures rose. The production is at a high level, and the supply - side profit is sufficient. The demand from the energy - storage and power - battery sectors has improved, and the social inventory is decreasing [46] Copper - Last trading day, Shanghai copper futures fell significantly. The spot market was mediocre, and the downstream consumption sentiment was low. The Indonesian copper mine has not resumed production, which supports copper prices. There are different views on the Sino - US APEC meeting [47] Tin - Last trading day, tin futures rose. The mining end is tight, the resumption of production in Wa State is slow, and the domestic processing fee is low. The demand shows certain resilience. The refined - tin inventory is decreasing, and the price may oscillate upward [49] Nickel - Last trading day, nickel futures closed down. The change in Indonesia's RKAB approval policy has raised supply concerns. The mining - end price has weakened, and the domestic port inventory is increasing. The high - grade nickel ore is still tight. The stainless - steel consumption is weak, and the refined - nickel market is in surplus [51] Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - Last trading day, soybean - meal futures rose, and soybean - oil futures fell. Sino - US trade frictions may ease. The soybean - crushing volume of oil mills has recovered to a high level. The soybean - meal inventory has decreased, and the soybean - oil inventory pressure is still large. The consumption of soybean oil may be suppressed, and the demand for soybean meal is expected to grow moderately [53][54] Palm Oil - Malaysian palm - oil futures fell for the third consecutive day. Indonesia's palm - oil production is expected to increase by 10% in 2025. The domestic palm - oil import has decreased, and the inventory is at a medium level in the past 7 years [56] Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - Canadian rapeseed prices rose. In China, the import of rapeseed and rapeseed meal decreased in September, while the import of rapeseed oil increased. The inventory of rapeseed, rapeseed meal, and rapeseed oil is at different levels in the past 7 years [59] Cotton - Last trading day, domestic cotton futures oscillated. The market has high expectations for Sino - US negotiations. The export of textile and clothing is relatively stable. The domestic cotton production is expected to be high this year, and the cotton price is under pressure [61][62] Sugar - Last trading day, Zhengzhou sugar futures rebounded significantly, while overseas sugar futures fell to a four - year low. Brazil's sugar production has slightly exceeded expectations, and the global sugar supply is expected to be in surplus. The domestic northern region has started sugar production, and the southern region will start in December [64][66] Apples - Last trading day, domestic apple futures rose significantly due to quality concerns. The opening price this year is higher than last year. The late - maturing apple market is active, but the quality is poor [69][70] Pigs - Yesterday, the national average pig price rose. At the end of the month, the northern market is strengthening, and the southern market is following. The supply from group farms has decreased slightly, and the retail - farmer reluctance to sell remains. The consumption demand has improved. In the second half of the month, the supply from group farms is expected to increase [72] Eggs - Last trading day, the average egg price in the main production and sales areas remained unchanged. The cost per catty has increased slightly, and the farming profit is negative. The number of laying hens in stock is at a high level in the past 9 years. In October, the supply is expected to increase, and the consumption may be lower than expected [74] Corn and Starch - Last trading day, corn futures rose, and corn - starch futures fell. The new - season corn is accelerating to ports, and the inventory is expected to increase. The demand for corn is growing slightly, but the price is under pressure due to the harvest. Corn starch has weak supply and demand, and the inventory is at a high level [76][77]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - For Treasury bonds, it is expected that there will be no trending market, and caution is advised [6][7]. - For stock indices, it is expected that there is little risk of a significant decline, and investors can choose the right time to go long [9][10]. - For precious metals, the pricing is relatively full. After taking profit on long positions, investors can wait and see [11][12]. - For rebar and hot - rolled coils, the prices may remain weak in the medium term. Investors can focus on short - selling opportunities at high levels during rebounds [13]. - For iron ore, the short - term supply - demand pattern supports prices, and investors can focus on buying opportunities during pullbacks [15]. - For coking coal and coke, the short - term trend is turning strong, and investors can focus on buying opportunities during pullbacks [17]. - For ferroalloys, the short - term supply may remain in excess, and investors can consider long positions at low levels when the spot falls into the loss range again [19][20]. - For crude oil, investors can focus on long - buying opportunities for the main contract [22][23]. - For fuel oil, investors can focus on long - buying opportunities for the main contract [25][26]. - For synthetic rubber, it is expected to fluctuate [27][28]. - For natural rubber, investors can focus on long - buying opportunities [31]. - For PVC, investors should pay attention to changes on the supply side [34]. - For urea, the downside space is limited [37]. - For p - xylene (PX), it may fluctuate and adjust in the short term, and investors can consider participating at the bottom [38]. - For PTA, it may fluctuate in the short term, and a cautiously bullish view is recommended [39][40]. - For ethylene glycol, it may fluctuate in the short term, and the downside space may be limited [41]. - For short - fiber, it may fluctuate following costs in the short term [43][44]. - For bottle chips, it is expected to fluctuate following the cost side [45]. - For lithium carbonate, pay attention to the sustainability of consumption [46]. - For copper, investors can focus on long - buying opportunities for the main contract [47][49]. - For tin, the price is expected to fluctuate strongly [50]. - For nickel, it is expected to fluctuate [53]. - For soybean oil and soybean meal, consider buying call options on soybean meal after adjustment, and temporarily wait and see for soybean oil [55][56]. - For palm oil, temporarily wait and see [58]. - For rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil, temporarily wait and see for rapeseed oil [60]. - For cotton, the upside space of the price is expected to be limited [62][63]. - For sugar, there is certain support at the bottom [65][66]. - For apples, wait and see [68]. - For live pigs, consider taking short - term profit on short positions and then wait and see, and wait for opportunities to short on rebounds [71]. - For eggs, continue to hold short positions and pay attention to opportunities to add short positions on rebounds [73]. - For corn and starch, it is advisable to wait and see for corn, and corn starch may follow the corn market [76]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Treasury Bonds - Last trading day, Treasury bond futures closed higher across the board. The 30 - year main contract rose 0.32% to 115.400 yuan [5]. - The central bank is studying a one - time personal credit relief policy, and will resume open - market Treasury bond trading. It will also crack down on virtual currency operations [6]. - The macro - economic recovery momentum needs to be strengthened, and the Treasury bond yield is at a relatively low level. It is expected that there will be no trending market [6]. Stock Indices - Last trading day, stock index futures showed mixed performance. The CSI 300 stock index futures (IF) main contract rose 1.24%, and others had different changes [8]. - The CSRC issued opinions on protecting small and medium - sized investors, including optimizing the IPO pricing mechanism [9]. - The domestic economy is stable, but the recovery momentum is weak. Asset valuations are low, and market sentiment has warmed up. It is expected that there is little risk of a significant decline [9]. Precious Metals - Last trading day, the gold main contract closed at 934.14 with a decline of 0.42%, and silver rose 0.55% [11]. - The global trade and financial environment is complex. Central bank gold purchases and expected Fed rate cuts are positive, but the recent increase is large [11]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils - Last trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures rebounded slightly. Spot prices are in a certain range [13]. - In the medium term, the price is dominated by supply - demand. Demand for rebar is still declining year - on - year, and supply capacity is still in surplus. The inventory pressure is obvious [13]. - The price of hot - rolled coils may be similar to that of rebar. Investors can focus on short - selling opportunities at high levels during rebounds [13]. Iron Ore - Last trading day, iron ore futures rebounded significantly. The PB powder port spot price is 793 yuan/ton [15]. - The daily output of molten iron supports the price. The supply has increased since the second quarter, but the year - on - year decline in the first 9 months remains. The short - term supply - demand pattern is supportive [15]. - Investors can focus on buying opportunities during pullbacks [15]. Coking Coal and Coke - Last trading day, coking coal and coke futures rose slightly. The supply of coking coal is slightly tight, and the spot purchase price of coke has risen for the second time [17]. - The short - term trend is turning strong, and investors can focus on buying opportunities during pullbacks [17]. Ferroalloys - Last trading day, the manganese - silicon main contract rose 0.24% to 5802 yuan/ton, and silicon - iron rose 0.36% to 5564 yuan/ton [19]. - The supply of manganese ore has increased, and the cost of ferroalloys has risen. The production is at a high level, and the short - term supply is in excess [19]. - Consider long positions at low levels when the spot falls into the loss range again [20]. Crude Oil - Last trading day, INE crude oil oscillated at a high level. The Baker Hughes rig count increased, and India will comply with sanctions on Russia [21]. - Although the rig count increased, it is difficult to increase US crude oil production. Sanctions on Russia and reduced purchases by India and China are positive for oil prices [22]. - Focus on long - buying opportunities for the main contract [23]. Fuel Oil - Last trading day, fuel oil oscillated upward. Singapore's fuel oil inventory decreased, imports declined, and exports decreased [24][25]. - The sudden supply shortage in Singapore and sanctions on Russia are positive for fuel oil prices [25]. - Focus on long - buying opportunities for the main contract [26]. Synthetic Rubber - Last trading day, the synthetic rubber main contract fell 1.43%. The supply is expected to decrease in the short - to - medium term, and the raw material side is bearish [27]. - It is expected to fluctuate [28]. Natural Rubber - Last trading day, the natural rubber main contract rose 0.20%, and 20 - grade rubber rose 0.08%. The supply is affected by weather, and demand and inventory have changed [29][30]. - Focus on long - buying opportunities [31]. PVC - Last trading day, the PVC main contract rose 0.64%. The supply is in excess, but the downward space may be limited [32]. - Pay attention to changes on the supply side [34]. Urea - Last trading day, the urea main contract closed flat. The supply has decreased due to more device overhauls, and demand has increased slightly [35]. - The downside space is limited [37]. p - Xylene (PX) - Last trading day, the PX main contract rose 1.35%. The PX load increased, and imports decreased. Crude oil prices are supported [38]. - The short - term supply - demand structure has improved, and it may fluctuate and adjust. Consider participating at the bottom [38]. PTA - Last trading day, the PTA2601 main contract rose 1.85%. Supply and demand have changed, and the processing fee has decreased [39]. - It may fluctuate in the short term, and a cautiously bullish view is recommended [40]. Ethylene Glycol - Last trading day, the ethylene glycol main contract rose 0.46%. The overall supply load increased, and inventory decreased. Demand support is limited [41]. - It may fluctuate in the short term, and the downside space may be limited [41]. Short - Fiber - Last trading day, the short - fiber 2512 main contract rose 1.33%. The device load decreased, and demand improved [42]. - It may fluctuate following costs in the short term [43][44]. Bottle Chips - Last trading day, the bottle chips 2601 main contract rose 1.42%. The load increased slightly, and exports slowed down [45]. - It is expected to fluctuate following the cost side [45]. Lithium Carbonate - Last trading day, the main contract rose 2.53% to 81900 yuan/ton. Supply is at a high level, and consumption in the energy - storage sector is strong [46]. - Pay attention to the sustainability of consumption [46]. Copper - Last trading day, Shanghai copper rose significantly. The spot price increased, but downstream consumption意愿 was low after the price increase [47][48]. - The non - resumption of Indonesian copper mines and positive Sino - US and domestic meetings are positive for copper prices [48]. - Focus on long - buying opportunities for the main contract [49]. Tin - Last trading day, the main contract rose 0.22% to 285580 yuan/ton. The supply is tight, and demand shows certain resilience [50]. - The price is expected to fluctuate strongly [50]. Nickel - Last trading day, the main contract fell 0.87% to 121260 yuan/ton. Supply concerns have resurfaced, and the market is in an oversupply situation [52][53]. - It is expected to fluctuate [53]. Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - Last trading day, soybean meal fell 0.27% to 2932 yuan/ton, and soybean oil rose 0.59% to 8234 yuan/ton. The soybean crushing volume increased, and inventory decreased [55]. - Consider buying call options on soybean meal after adjustment, and temporarily wait and see for soybean oil [56]. Palm Oil - The Malaysian palm oil market fell for the second day. Indonesian biodiesel consumption increased, and Malaysian exports decreased slightly. Domestic imports decreased, and inventory increased [57]. - Temporarily wait and see [58]. Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - Canadian rapeseed prices rose. Domestic imports of rapeseed, rapeseed meal, and rapeseed oil have changed. Inventory has decreased [59]. - Temporarily wait and see for rapeseed oil [60]. Cotton - Last trading day, domestic cotton futures oscillated. The market has high expectations for Sino - US negotiations. Textile exports are relatively stable, and domestic production is expected to increase [61].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide an explicit industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The new - year global cotton supply - demand contradiction is not significant, but there are many uncertainties and large adjustment space in the global supply - demand balance sheet, with the supply - demand report being neutral. Short - term global cotton prices are constrained by harvest pressure. [28] - In China, the new - year production increase expectation is strong, commercial inventory is rising rapidly, and industrial inventory is at a neutral level. The period of the tightest cotton supply has passed. The current cotton - yarn price spread is low, domestic and export demand is weak, and downstream textile mills purchase as needed. [28] - If there is no substantial progress in Sino - US tariff negotiations, cotton prices are expected to face upward pressure due to expected production increase, weak demand, and downstream losses. [28] 3. Summary by Directory Global Cotton Supply - Demand Situation - The USDA's September supply - demand report shows that the estimated global cotton production in the 2025/26 season is 25.65 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 230,000 tons. Global consumption is expected to increase by 180,000 tons to 25.9 million tons, and the global ending inventory is 15.94 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 170,000 tons. The supply - demand report is neutral. [2] US Cotton Supply - Demand Situation - The USDA's September supply - demand report shows that the estimated cotton production is 2.88 million tons, unchanged from the August estimate. The estimated ending inventory is 780,000 tons, unchanged from August and 90,000 tons more than the previous year's ending inventory. [6] Domestic Cotton Industry Chain Situation - **Domestic Cotton Production Increase**: In 2025, the national cotton planting area is 47.306 million mu, a year - on - year increase of 7.6%. Total cotton output is adjusted up by 516,000 tons to 7.415 million tons. The purchase price of seed cotton showed a pattern of high - opening, low - going, and then rebounding. In October, there was a rare scramble for purchases in Xinjiang. [7][11] - **Cotton Inventory Situation**: As of the end of September, the commercial cotton inventory was 1.02 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 670,000 tons. It is expected to reach over 2.5 million tons by October, ending the stage of supply shortage. As of the end of September, the industrial cotton inventory of textile enterprises was 850,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 70,000 tons, at a neutral level. [12][16] - **Textile Mill Yarn Inventory**: As of the end of October, the textile mill yarn inventory was 30.1 days, a year - on - year increase of 5 days, at a neutral - to - high level. [17] - **Textile and Apparel Export Situation**: In September 2025, China's textile and apparel export total was $24.42 billion, a year - on - year decrease of 1.4% and a month - on - month decrease of 8%. From January to September 2025, the cumulative textile and apparel exports were $221.69 billion, a year - on - year decrease of 0.3%. [19][21] Domestic Cotton Valuation Situation - At the end of October, the average purchase price of seed cotton in Xinjiang is expected to be around 6.2 yuan/kg, corresponding to a new - cotton cost of around 14,600 yuan/ton. The current domestic cotton - yarn price spread is around 5,700, at a low level. Xinjiang's textile profit is at the break - even point, while inland textile profit is in the red. Overall, downstream industry chain profits are low, which is not conducive to downstream active inventory replenishment. [22][25]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - For Treasury bonds, expect no trending market and maintain caution [6][7] - For stock index futures, the risk of a significant decline is low, and one can choose the right time to go long [8][9] - For precious metals, the pricing is relatively full. After taking profits on previous long positions, one can wait and see [10][11][12] - For rebar and hot - rolled coils, consider shorting at high levels during rebounds and pay attention to position management [13] - For iron ore, look for buying opportunities during pullbacks and manage positions carefully [15][16] - For coking coal and coke, look for buying opportunities during pullbacks and manage positions [18] - For ferroalloys, consider long positions at low levels when the spot falls back into the loss - making range [20][21] - For crude oil, focus on long - position opportunities for the main contract [23][24] - For fuel oil, focus on long - position opportunities for the main contract [25][26] - For synthetic rubber, it will run in a volatile manner [27][28] - For natural rubber, pay attention to long - position opportunities [29][30] - For PVC, pay attention to changes in the supply side [31][33] - For urea, the downside space is limited [34][35] - For p - xylene (PX), it may have an oscillatory adjustment with support at the bottom. Control positions and be vigilant about crude oil changes [36] - For PTA, it may run in a volatile manner. Be cautious, control risks, and pay attention to oil price changes [37] - For ethylene glycol, it may run in a volatile manner with limited downside space. Monitor port inventory and import changes [38] - For short - fiber, it may follow the cost to run in a volatile manner. Control risks and pay attention to cost changes and macro - policy adjustments [39][40] - For bottle chips, it is expected to follow the cost side to run in a volatile manner. Control risks [41] - For lithium carbonate, pay attention to the sustainability of consumption in the context of a pattern of high supply and demand [42][43] - For copper, focus on long - position opportunities for the main contract of Shanghai copper [44][45] - For tin, it is expected to run in a volatile and upward - biased manner [46] - For nickel, it is expected to run in a volatile manner [48] - For soybean meal, consider long - position opportunities for call options in the support range after adjustment; for soybean oil, temporarily wait and see [50][51] - For palm oil, temporarily wait and see [52] - For rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil, temporarily wait and see for rapeseed oil [53][55] - For cotton, the upside space of cotton prices is expected to be limited [56][57][58] - For sugar, there is certain support below the price [59][61][62] - For apples, wait and see [63][64] - For live pigs, take short - term profits on short positions and then wait and see. Look for opportunities to short on rebounds and consider reverse - spread strategies for arbitrage [65][66] - For eggs, hold short positions [67][69] - For corn and starch, it is advisable to wait and see; corn starch has weak production and demand with high inventory [70][71][72] Summary by Catalog Treasury Bonds - On the previous trading day, Treasury bond futures closed down across the board. The 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year main contracts fell by 0.25%, 0.06%, 0.05%, and 0.01% respectively. The central bank conducted 168 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 3.2 billion yuan [5] - US economic data and macro - economic conditions suggest that Treasury bond futures are unlikely to have a trending market [6] Stock Index Futures - On the previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed performance. The main contracts of IF, IH, IC, and IM rose by 1.49%, 1.04%, 2.37%, and 2.42% respectively [8] - Domestic economic recovery momentum is weak, but asset valuations are low, and market sentiment has warmed up. The risk of a significant decline is low [8] Precious Metals - On the previous trading day, the gold main contract closed at 938.1 with a decline of 0.44%, and the silver main contract closed at 11,332 with a decline of 1.18% [10] - Global economic data and trends are favorable for precious metals, but the recent rise has been large, and the pricing is full [10][11] Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils - On the previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures had a slight correction. The spot prices of billets, rebar, and hot - rolled coils are given [13] - In the medium term, rebar demand is weak, supply is over - capacity, and inventory pressure is high. Hot - rolled coils may have a similar trend [13] Iron Ore - On the previous trading day, iron ore futures had a slight correction. The spot prices of PB powder and Super Special powder are provided [15] - Iron ore demand is supported in the short term, but the medium - term supply - demand pattern may weaken [15] Coking Coal and Coke - On the previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures fluctuated and consolidated. Coking coal supply is tight, and coke procurement prices have been raised [18] - Technically, coking coal and coke futures are strengthening in the short term [18] Ferroalloys - On the previous trading day, the manganese - silicon main contract fell 0.59% to 5772 yuan/ton, and the silicon - iron main contract fell 0.07% to 5542 yuan/ton [20] - Supply is in excess in the short term, but costs are rising, and there may be long - position opportunities at low levels [20][21] Crude Oil - On the previous trading day, INE crude oil oscillated upward due to European sanctions on Russia. US oil and gas rig counts increased [22] - Multiple factors are favorable for crude oil prices, and focus on long - position opportunities [23][24] Fuel Oil - On the previous trading day, fuel oil rose significantly due to the rise in crude oil and sanctions on Russia. The market structure of fuel oil has recovered [25] - Singapore's fuel oil supply is tight, and sanctions on Russia are favorable for fuel oil prices. Focus on long - position opportunities [25][26] Synthetic Rubber - On the previous trading day, the synthetic rubber main contract rose 0.14%. Supply - side factors led to a rebound, and it will run in a wide - range volatile manner [27] Natural Rubber - On the previous trading day, the natural rubber main contract and 20 - grade rubber main contract rose. Supply is affected by weather, and demand and inventory are changing [29] - Focus on long - position opportunities [30] PVC - On the previous trading day, the PVC main contract fell 0.36%. Supply exceeds demand, but the downward space may be limited [31] - Pay attention to changes in exports and supply reduction after the holiday [31] Urea - On the previous trading day, the urea main contract rose 0.74%. Supply pressure has eased, and demand is picking up [34] - The downside space is limited [35] PX - On the previous trading day, the PX main contract rose 0.52%. PXN and PX - MX spreads are given. Supply and import data are provided [36] - Short - term supply - demand structure has improved, and it may have an oscillatory adjustment with bottom support [36] PTA - On the previous trading day, the PTA2601 main contract rose 0.27%. Supply and demand data, as well as processing fees, are provided [37] - It may run in a volatile manner with support at the bottom [37] Ethylene Glycol - On the previous trading day, the ethylene glycol main contract fell 0.22%. Supply, inventory, and demand data are provided [38] - It may run in a volatile manner with limited downside space [38] Short - Fiber - On the previous trading day, the short - fiber 2512 main contract fell 0.1%. Supply, demand, and processing fee data are provided [39][40] - It may follow the cost to run in a volatile manner [40] Bottle Chips - On the previous trading day, the bottle chips 2601 main contract rose 0.11%. Supply, demand, and processing fee data are provided [41] - It is expected to follow the cost side to run in a volatile manner [41] Lithium Carbonate - On the previous trading day, the main contract rose 1.33% to 79,520 yuan/ton. Supply is high, and demand is improving [42] - Pay attention to the sustainability of consumption [43] Copper - On the previous trading day, Shanghai copper rose significantly. Current copper prices are rising, but downstream demand is weak [44] - Multiple factors are favorable for copper prices. Focus on long - position opportunities [44][45] Tin - On the previous trading day, the main contract fell 0.32% to 282,250 yuan/ton. Supply is tight, and demand has some resilience [46] - It is expected to run in a volatile and upward - biased manner [46] Nickel - On the previous trading day, the main contract rose 0.23% to 122,260 yuan/ton. Supply concerns and demand conditions are provided [48] - It is expected to run in a volatile manner [48] Soybean Meal and Soybean Oil - On the previous trading day, the soybean meal main contract rose 0.58% to 2933 yuan/ton, and the soybean oil main contract fell 0.15% to 8194 yuan/ton. Supply, demand, and inventory data are provided [50] - Consider long - position opportunities for soybean meal call options; for soybean oil, temporarily wait and see [51] Palm Oil - Malaysian palm oil is falling and oscillating. Indonesian biodiesel consumption has increased, and Malaysian exports have risen [52] - Temporarily wait and see [52] Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - Canadian rapeseed prices are affected by other vegetable oils. Domestic import data for rapeseed, rapeseed oil, and rapeseed meal are provided [53][54] - Temporarily wait and see for rapeseed oil [55] Cotton - Domestic and foreign cotton prices oscillated. Sino - US negotiations are ongoing, and domestic cotton production is expected to be high [56] - The upside space of cotton prices is limited [57][58] Sugar - Zhengzhou sugar is weakly oscillating, and the overseas market is falling due to expected supply growth. Brazilian production data are provided [59] - There is certain support below the price [61][62] Apples - Domestic apple futures fluctuated. The opening price is higher than last year, and there are issues with apple diseases and production forecasts [63] - Wait and see [64] Live Pigs - The national average price of live pigs is rising. Supply and demand data, as well as cost and inventory information, are provided [65] - Consider short - term profit - taking on short positions and wait for short - selling opportunities on rebounds [66] Eggs - Egg prices are rising, but costs are high, and the supply is increasing. Inventory and consumption data are provided [67] - Hold short positions [69] Corn and Starch - Corn and corn starch futures prices are provided. Supply, demand, and inventory data for corn and corn starch are given [70][71] - Corn prices are under pressure, and it is advisable to wait and see; corn starch has weak production and demand with high inventory [71][72]