2025 年 12 月 17 日星期三 重庆市江北区金沙门路 32 号 23 层； 023-67071029 上海市浦东新区世纪大道 210 号 10 楼 1001； 021-61101854 地址： 电话： 1 市场有风险 投资需谨慎 | | | | 铅： | | 15 | | --- | --- | --- | | 锡： | | 15 | | 镍： | | 16 | | 豆油、豆粕： | | 16 | | 棕榈油： | | 17 | | 菜粕、菜油： | | 17 | | 棉花： | | 18 | | 白糖： | | 19 | | 苹果： | | 20 | | 生猪： | | 21 | | 鸡蛋： | | 21 | | 玉米&淀粉： | | 22 | | 免责声明 | | 24 | 国债： 上一交易日，国债期货收盘表现分化，30 年期主力合约跌 0.19%报 111.390 元， 10 年期主力合约涨 0.05%报 107.905 元，5 年期主力合约涨 0.03%报 105.795 元，2 年 期主力合约跌 0.02%报 102.426 元。 美国 11 月季调后非农就业人口增 6.4 万人，预期增 5 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - In November 2025, the macro - economic data continued to decline, and the recovery momentum remained weak. The manufacturing PMI rebounded but was still below the boom - bust line. Industrial production, consumption, and fixed - asset investment growth rates all continued to weaken, and the real estate market was still in a downward trend. Domestic effective demand was insufficient, and the economy faced many challenges [3]. - The implementation of more proactive macro - policies is required to expand domestic demand and optimize supply, promoting both qualitative improvement and reasonable quantitative growth of the economy. "Expanding domestic demand and anti - involution" will be long - term and important policy measures [3]. - The financial market is in a state of "weak reality, strong expectation", and market sentiment is continuously improving. Despite the twists and turns, the macro - economy and asset prices in 2025 are expected to continue the upward - repair trend [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Manufacturing PMI - In November, the manufacturing PMI was 49.2%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, but still below the boom - bust line. Large - scale enterprise PMI decreased, while medium and small - scale enterprise PMIs increased [4]. - Among the 5 classification indexes of manufacturing PMI, the supplier delivery time index was above the critical point, the production index was at the critical point, and the new order index, raw material inventory index, and employment index were below the critical point [4]. - The non - manufacturing business activity index was 49.5% in November, down 0.6 percentage points from the previous month. The construction industry business activity index increased, while the service industry business activity index decreased [7]. 2. CPI and PPI - In November 2025, the national CPI increased by 0.7% year - on - year and decreased by 0.1% month - on - month. The PPI decreased by 2.2% year - on - year and increased by 0.1% month - on - month. The core inflation continued to improve [8][10]. - The anti - involution policy has achieved continuous results, and the PPI is in an upward - repair trend. The PPI year - on - year growth rate is expected to turn positive in 2026 [12]. 3. Import and Export - In November, China's total import and export value was 549.03 billion US dollars, with a year - on - year growth of 4.3%. Exports were 330.35 billion US dollars, up 5.9% year - on - year, and imports were 218.67 billion US dollars, up 1.9% year - on - year, with a trade surplus of 111.68 billion US dollars [13]. - Exports to the EU rebounded significantly, while exports to the US were gradually replaced by those to ASEAN. China's exports have shown strong resilience, and the real risk for foreign trade lies in the potential decline in global demand [16]. 4. Credit and Money Supply - At the end of November 2025, the stock of social financing scale was 440.07 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year growth of 8.5%. The growth rates of both M1 and M2 declined, and the M1 - M2 gap narrowed [18][23]. - Resident and enterprise credit demand was weak. Resident short - term and long - term loans decreased significantly, and enterprise short - and long - term loans were at a low level, with a significant increase in bill financing [19][21]. 5. Industrial Production, Consumption, and Investment - In November, the added value of large - scale industries increased by 4.8% year - on - year and 0.44% month - on - month. The total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 1.3% year - on - year, but the growth rate continued to decline, especially in sectors such as home appliances, furniture, and automobiles [24][26]. - From January to November, national fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) decreased by 2.6% year - on - year, with declines in private fixed - asset investment, real estate development investment, and infrastructure investment [28]. 6. Real Estate Market - From January to November, the sales area and sales volume of new commercial housing decreased by 7.8% and 11.1% year - on - year respectively, and the decline accelerated in November. Real estate new construction, construction, and completion also decreased [31][33]. - The real estate market is in the process of bottoming out and transforming. Although there are fluctuations, the year - on - year decline in sales and prices is narrowing, and the de - stocking effect is emerging. The first half of 2026 is expected to be a critical period for the real estate market to stop falling and stabilize [38].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The macro - economic recovery momentum needs to be strengthened, and the monetary policy is expected to remain loose. Different futures products have different trends and investment suggestions [6][9][13] - For treasury bonds, there is still some pressure, and a cautious attitude should be maintained [6][7][8] - For stock index futures, the volatility center is expected to gradually move up, and investors can choose the right time to go long [9][10] - For precious metals, they are expected to continue the upward trend, and investors can wait and see for long - position opportunities [13][14] - For steel products such as rebar and hot - rolled coils, they are expected to be weak in the medium - term, and investors can pay attention to short - selling opportunities at high levels [15] - For iron ore, it may experience a correction, and investors can pay attention to short - selling opportunities at high levels [17][18] - For coking coal and coke, there are signs of stabilizing after falling, and investors can pay attention to long - position opportunities at low levels [20] - For ferroalloys, investors can consider long - position opportunities at low levels after the spot loss expands [23] - For crude oil, the market is uncertain, and the main contract should be temporarily observed [25][26] - For fuel oil, it has a large rebound space, and the main contract should be temporarily observed [27][28] - For polyolefins, the polyethylene fundamentals are still weak, but investors can pay attention to long - position opportunities [29][30][31] - For synthetic rubber, it is expected to oscillate [32][33] - For natural rubber, the market may show an oscillating trend [34][35] - For PVC, pay attention to changes in the supply side [36] - For urea, the downward space is limited [37][38] - For PX, it may oscillate and adjust in the short term, and investors should be vigilant about crude oil changes [39] - For PTA, it may oscillate, and investors should pay attention to oil price changes [40] - For ethylene glycol, it may oscillate, and investors should pay attention to port inventory and supply changes [41][42] - For short - fiber, it may oscillate following the cost, and investors should control risks [43] - For bottle chips, it is expected to oscillate following the cost, and investors should control risks [44] - For lithium carbonate, pay attention to consumption sustainability and mine restart progress [45] - For copper, be vigilant about the risk of a technical correction [46][47] - For aluminum, it may continue to oscillate at a high level [48][49][50] - For zinc, be cautious about chasing up [51][52] - For lead, it may continue the oscillating market [53][54] - For tin, it is expected to oscillate and be stronger [55] - For nickel, it is expected to oscillate [56] - For soybean oil and soybean meal, investors can pay attention to long - position opportunities in the low - cost support range [57][58][59] - For palm oil, it should be temporarily observed [60][61] - For rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil, they should be temporarily observed [61][62] - For cotton, it is expected to run strongly [63][64][66] - For sugar, it is expected to run weakly and oscillate [67][68][69] - For apples, the price is expected to run strongly [70][71] - For live pigs, continue to follow the marginal changes in consumption caused by subsequent cooling and consider waiting and seeing [71][72] - For eggs, consider waiting and seeing [73][74][75] - For corn and starch, the selling pressure in the harvest season is expected to continue, and the demand maintains a slight growth trend [76][77] 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Treasury Bonds - The previous trading day, treasury bond futures closed down across the board. The central bank carried out 130.9 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 8.6 billion yuan on the day [5] - The macro - economic recovery momentum needs to be strengthened, and the treasury bond futures are expected to have some pressure [6][7][8] Stock Index Futures - The previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed trends. The domestic economic recovery momentum is not strong, but the domestic asset valuation is low, and the market sentiment has warmed up. The volatility center is expected to gradually move up, and investors can choose the right time to go long [9][10] Precious Metals - The previous trading day, the gold main contract rose 1.29%, and the silver main contract fell 0.66%. The global trade and financial environment is complex, and the central bank's gold - buying behavior and the expected Fed rate - cut are beneficial to precious metals. They are expected to continue the upward trend, and investors can wait and see for long - position opportunities [11][13][14] Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils - The previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures showed a weak oscillation. The medium - term price is dominated by industry supply - demand logic. The demand is weak, and the inventory pressure is obvious. They are expected to be weak in the medium - term, and investors can pay attention to short - selling opportunities at high levels [15] Iron Ore - The previous trading day, iron ore futures fell slightly. The supply - demand pattern is weak, and it may experience a correction. Investors can pay attention to short - selling opportunities at high levels [17][18] Coking Coal and Coke - The previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures rebounded. The supply and demand are weak, but there are signs of stabilizing after falling. Investors can pay attention to long - position opportunities at low levels [20] Ferroalloys - The previous trading day, manganese - silicon and silicon - iron main contracts rose. The supply is expected to decrease, and the demand is weak. The overall surplus continues. Investors can consider long - position opportunities at low levels after the spot loss expands [22][23] Crude Oil - The previous trading day, INE crude oil oscillated at a low level. The CFTC data shows that US funds increased net short positions, and the situation of the US seizing Venezuelan oil tankers and the Russia - Ukraine peace negotiation make the crude oil trend uncertain. The main contract should be temporarily observed [24][25][26] Fuel Oil - The previous trading day, fuel oil rebounded significantly. The Asian spot supply is sufficient, and the cost - end crude oil is weak. It has a large rebound space, and the main contract should be temporarily observed [27][28] Polyolefins - The previous trading day, the market sentiment was boosted. The supply is expected to decrease, and the demand is weak. The polyethylene fundamentals are still weak, but investors can pay attention to long - position opportunities [29][30][31] Synthetic Rubber - The previous trading day, the synthetic rubber main contract rose. It is currently supported by cost and demand, and the subsequent supply and demand changes need to be concerned. It is expected to oscillate [32][33] Natural Rubber - The previous trading day, the natural rubber main contract showed a mixed trend. The supply and demand are both affected by multiple factors, and the market is expected to oscillate [34][35] PVC - The previous trading day, the PVC main contract rose. The supply exceeds demand, and the downward space is limited. Pay attention to the supply - side changes [36] Urea - The previous trading day, the urea main contract fell slightly. The supply is stable, and the demand is mixed. The price is expected to rise slightly in a narrow range, and the downward space is limited [37][38] PX - The previous trading day, the PX main contract rose. The PXN spread has been repaired, the short - process profit has improved, and the start - up rate has declined slightly. It may oscillate and adjust in the short term, and investors should be vigilant about crude oil changes [39] PTA - The previous trading day, the PTA main contract fell. The supply is stable, the demand is slightly weak, and the processing fee is stable. It may oscillate in the short term, and investors should pay attention to oil price changes [40] Ethylene Glycol - The previous trading day, the ethylene glycol main contract rose. The supply pressure has been alleviated, but the port inventory has increased. It may oscillate in the short term, and investors should pay attention to port inventory and supply changes [41][42] Short - Fiber - The previous trading day, the short - fiber main contract fell. The supply is at a relatively high level, the demand changes little, and it may follow the cost to oscillate. Investors should control risks [43] Bottle Chips - The previous trading day, the bottle - chip main contract fell. The raw material price support is limited, the load is stable, and the export growth has slowed down. It is expected to follow the cost to oscillate, and investors should control risks [44] Lithium Carbonate - The previous trading day, the lithium carbonate main contract rose. The supply and demand are both strong, and the inventory is gradually being depleted. Pay attention to consumption sustainability and mine restart progress [45] Copper - The previous trading day, the Shanghai copper main contract fell. The macro - economic data is not as expected, the supply is expected to tighten, and the demand has weakened. Be vigilant about the risk of a technical correction [46][47] Aluminum - The previous trading day, the Shanghai aluminum and alumina main contracts fell. The alumina supply is in surplus, and the electrolytic aluminum supply is restricted. It may continue to oscillate at a high level [48][49][50] Zinc - The previous trading day, the Shanghai zinc main contract fell. The supply is decreasing, the demand is in the off - season, and the inventory is decreasing. Be cautious about chasing up [51][52] Lead - The previous trading day, the Shanghai lead main contract fell. The supply is shrinking, the demand is weak, and the inventory is at a low level. It may continue the oscillating market [53][54] Tin - The previous trading day, the tin main contract fell. The supply is tight, the demand has some resilience, and the inventory is decreasing. It is expected to oscillate and be stronger [55] Nickel - The previous trading day, the nickel main contract fell. The supply is in surplus, the demand is weak, and the inventory is at a relatively high level. It is expected to oscillate [56] Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - The previous trading day, soybean oil and soybean meal futures fell. The Brazilian soybean planting progress is slightly slower, the domestic soybean supply is loose, and the demand maintains a slight growth. Investors can pay attention to long - position opportunities in the low - cost support range [57][58][59] Palm Oil - The previous trading day, the palm oil market was affected by multiple factors such as the US bio - fuel policy and Indian imports. It should be temporarily observed [60][61] Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - The previous trading day, rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil were affected by the US bio - fuel policy and domestic imports. They should be temporarily observed [61][62] Cotton - The previous trading day, the cotton futures showed mixed trends. The global and US cotton inventories are expected to increase, the domestic supply is abundant, and the demand is flat. It is expected to run strongly [63][64][66] Sugar - The previous trading day, the sugar futures fell. India has a strong production increase expectation, and the domestic new sugar supply pressure is increasing. It is expected to run weakly and oscillate [67][68][69] Apples - The previous trading day, the apple futures fell sharply. The current inventory is low, and the new - season output and quality have declined. The price is expected to run strongly [70][71] Live Pigs - The previous trading day, the live - pig price showed regional differences. The consumption is improving, but the large - weight pigs are slowly released. Continue to follow the marginal changes in consumption caused by subsequent cooling and consider waiting and seeing [71][72] Eggs - The previous trading day, the egg price was stable with a slight decline. The supply is at a high level, and the demand is weak. Consider waiting and seeing [73][74][75] Corn and Starch - The previous trading day, corn and starch futures fell. The new - season corn in the northern main producing areas has a bumper harvest, the short - term collection volume is low, and the demand maintains a slight growth. The selling pressure in the harvest season is expected to continue [76][77]

Report Overview - Title: "Fed Continues to Ease, but Future Rate Cut Pace May Slow - Interpretation of the Fed's December Meeting" [1] - Researcher: Wan Liang - Report Date: December 12, 2025 [2] 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The Fed continued to cut interest rates in December, but there are internal differences regarding inflation and the labor market, and the willingness to continue cutting rates is low. In the long - term, the Fed is expected to continue the rate - cut path, but the pace may slow down without further support from labor market and inflation data. The US economy is not in recession but shows signs of weakening, and its future depends on the sustainability of the AI narrative. Different asset classes are expected to have diverse price trends [9][10][16]. 3. Summary by Sections 3.1 December Fed Meeting Highlights - **Interest Rate Decision**: The Fed cut the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 3.50% - 3.75% on December 11, the third rate cut this year. The vote was 9 - 3, with different views between hawks and doves [3]. - **Economic Projections**: The economic growth forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 were revised upward by 0.1pct, 0.5pct, and 0.1pct respectively. The unemployment rate forecast for 2027 was revised down by 0.1pct, and the core PCE forecasts for 2025 and 2026 were revised down by 0.1pct [4]. - **Rate Dot Plot**: The median forecast for the federal funds rate in 2026 is 3.4%, and 3.1% in 2027, suggesting one 25 - basis - point rate cut each year [5]. - **Powell's Remarks**: Powell said that "the next move will be a rate hike" is not a basic assumption. The labor market is cooling gradually, inflation in non - tariff areas has made progress, and the end of the government shutdown in October - November led to an upward revision of the 2026 growth forecast [7][8]. 3.2 Price Trends of Major Asset Classes - **Positive Market Reaction**: After the Fed's dovish statement, US bond yields fell, US stocks rose, the dollar declined, precious metals and some commodities like oil and copper increased, while Bitcoin and Ethereum had mixed performances [11][12]. 3.3 Outlook for the US Economy and Fed's Monetary Policy - **Economic Situation**: The US economy is weakening but not in recession. The labor market is slowing, inflation has some resilience, and the economy depends on the AI narrative [14][16]. - **Monetary Policy Outlook**: The Fed is expected to continue cutting rates, and the number of rate cuts in 2026 is expected to exceed 50 basis points [16]. 3.4 Views on Future Asset Trends - **US Stocks**: The Fed's rate - cut expectations and the high - growth of emerging industries boost optimism, but risks are accumulating, and future volatility may increase [17]. - **US Treasury Bonds**: Short - term yields have declined, while long - term yields are constrained. If the economy slows further, both short - and long - term yields may fall [17]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold has long - term value but may face short - term correction risks. Silver is more affected by speculation and liquidity [17]. - **Commodities**: Global - priced commodities are rising, while domestic - priced commodities are weak and need "anti - involution" policies [18]. - **Renminbi Exchange Rate**: The dollar may be in a long - term downward cycle, and the RMB is expected to enter an appreciation channel [18]. - **Stock Index Futures**: Although the macro - economy has limited recovery momentum, Chinese equity assets are promising in the long - term, and the volatility center of index futures is expected to rise [20].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content Core Views - The macro - economic recovery momentum needs to be strengthened, and it is expected that the monetary policy will remain loose. The market risk preference has significantly increased, and different futures varieties have different trends and investment strategies [7] - For bonds, it is expected that Treasury bond futures will still face some pressure, and a cautious attitude should be maintained [7][8] - For stocks, it is expected that the volatility center of stock index futures will gradually move up, and investors can choose the right time to go long [10][11] - For precious metals, they are expected to continue the upward trend, and investors can wait and see for now to look for long - entry opportunities [12][13] - For steel products such as rebar and hot - rolled coil, the medium - term price weakness may be difficult to change, and investors can pay attention to short - selling opportunities at high levels during rebounds [13] - For iron ore, the supply - demand pattern is weak, and investors can pay attention to short - selling opportunities at high levels [15] - For coking coal and coke, the weakness has not been reversed, and investors can pay attention to long - entry opportunities at low levels [17] - For ferroalloys, after a decline, investors can consider long - entry opportunities at low levels when the spot loss expands [20] - For crude oil, the trend is uncertain, and the main contract should be temporarily observed [22][23] - For fuel oil, the cost - end crude oil price dominates, and the main contract should be temporarily observed [25][26] - For polyolefins, they should be temporarily observed [28] - For synthetic rubber, it will run in a volatile manner [30] - For natural rubber, investors can pay attention to long - entry opportunities [32] - For PVC, investors should pay attention to changes in the supply side [34] - For urea, the downward space is limited [36] - For PX, it may be adjusted in a volatile manner in the short term, and investors should pay attention to controlling positions and macro - policy changes [38] - For PTA, it may run in a volatile manner in the short term, and investors should be cautious and pay attention to oil price changes [39] - For ethylene glycol, it may be under pressure in the short term, and investors should pay attention to port inventory and supply changes [41] - For staple fiber, it may follow the cost to run in a volatile manner in the short term, and investors should pay attention to cost changes and macro - policy adjustments [42] - For bottle chips, it is expected to follow the cost to run in a volatile manner, and investors should pay attention to controlling risks [43] - For lithium carbonate, pay attention to the sustainability of consumption and the resumption progress of the mine end [45] - For copper, it will run strongly [47] - For aluminum, it will be adjusted in a volatile manner [50] - For zinc, investors should be cautious about chasing up [52] - For lead, it will run within a range [54] - For tin, it is expected to run strongly in a volatile manner [56] - For nickel, it will run in a volatile manner [57] - For soybean oil and soybean meal, investors can pay attention to long - entry opportunities in the low - cost support range [59] - For palm oil, investors can consider going long on pullbacks [61] - For rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil, investors can consider short - term long positions in the near - term contracts and pay attention to setting stop - losses [64] - For cotton, it is recommended to wait and see [68] - For sugar, it will run in a volatile manner [72] - For apples, the price is expected to run strongly [74] - For live pigs, it is recommended to wait and see [75] - For eggs, it is recommended to wait and see for now [79] - For corn and starch, corn starch may follow the corn market, and investors should wait for the release of supply pressure after transportation recovers [82] Summary by Related Catalogs Treasury Bonds - On the previous trading day, Treasury bond futures closed up across the board. The central bank conducted 118.6 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, and the net withdrawal was 62.2 billion yuan on that day [5] - Due to the relatively low Treasury bond yield, the stable recovery of the Chinese economy, the continuous rise of core inflation, and the increase in market risk preference, it is expected that Treasury bond futures will still face some pressure, and a cautious attitude should be maintained [7][8] Stock Indexes - On the previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed results. The domestic sales of new energy vehicles in November increased year - on - year and month - on - month [10] - Although the domestic economic recovery momentum is not strong and corporate profit growth is at a low level, the domestic asset valuation is low, and there is room for valuation repair. The market sentiment has heated up, and it is expected that the volatility center of stock index futures will gradually move up, and investors can choose the right time to go long [10][11] Precious Metals - On the previous trading day, the main contracts of gold and silver closed up. The complex global trade and financial environment, central banks' gold - buying behavior, and the expected continuous interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve are all beneficial to precious metals, which are expected to continue the upward trend. Investors can wait and see for now to look for long - entry opportunities [12][13] Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - On the previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures fell slightly. In the medium term, the price of finished products is dominated by the industrial supply - demand logic. The demand for rebar is declining year - on - year, and the market will enter the off - season. The supply side has over - capacity, and the inventory pressure is obvious. The price weakness may be difficult to change. The trend of hot - rolled coil is similar to that of rebar, and investors can pay attention to short - selling opportunities at high levels during rebounds [13] Iron Ore - On the previous trading day, iron ore futures fell slightly. Since October, the daily output of molten iron has declined, the import volume of iron ore has increased year - on - year, the port inventory has continued to rise, and the supply - demand pattern is weak. Technically, the rebound may encounter resistance, and investors can pay attention to short - selling opportunities at high levels [15] Coking Coal and Coke - On the previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures fell sharply. For coking coal, the impact of safety inspections on production is weakening, the supply is increasing, and the demand is weakening. For coke, the first round of price cuts for spot purchases has been implemented, the supply is stable, and the demand is expected to weaken. Technically, the weakness has not been reversed, and investors can pay attention to long - entry opportunities at low levels [17] Ferroalloys - On the previous trading day, the main contracts of ferromanganese and ferrosilicon closed down. The supply of manganese ore has increased slightly, the cost of ferroalloys has risen, the output of ferroalloys has continued to decline from high levels, the demand is weak, and the overall over - supply situation has eased. After a decline, investors can consider long - entry opportunities at low levels when the spot loss expands [19][20] Crude Oil - On the previous trading day, INE crude oil oscillated downward due to the progress of the Russia - Ukraine peace agreement. The CFTC data shows that the short - selling sentiment of funds has weakened. The situation of the US seizing Venezuelan oil tankers and the Russia - Ukraine peace negotiations has made the crude oil trend highly uncertain. The main contract should be temporarily observed [21][22][23] Fuel Oil - On the previous trading day, fuel oil oscillated downward and hit a new low for the year. The Asian fuel oil spot delivery period is unstable, which is beneficial to the fuel oil price. The cost - end crude oil price dominates, and the main contract should be temporarily observed [24][25][26] Polyolefins - On the previous trading day, the quotes in the Hangzhou PP market showed mixed results. The price of LLDPE in the Yuyao market fell. The demand for polypropylene products has shown a stable and slightly rising trend under the drive of policies and seasonal demand. Polyolefins should be temporarily observed [27][28] Synthetic Rubber - On the previous trading day, the main contract of synthetic rubber closed up. The inventory has decreased slightly, and the supply - demand pattern is in a weak balance. The cost of butadiene rubber is low, and the profit has improved significantly. The supply is expected to increase in December, and the demand from tire enterprises has recovered. It will run in a volatile manner [29][30] Natural Rubber - On the previous trading day, the main contract of natural rubber showed mixed results. It is expected that the short - term natural rubber market will show a range - bound consolidation. The overseas supply has recovered, the domestic supply is tight, the demand from tire enterprises has recovered, and the inventory is in a seasonal accumulation trend. Investors can pay attention to long - entry opportunities [31][32] PVC - On the previous trading day, the main contract of PVC closed down. The current oversupply situation continues, but the downward space is limited, and it is necessary to wait for the improvement of the fundamentals. Pay attention to the export and supply reduction after the festival. Investors should pay attention to changes in the supply side [33][34] Urea - On the previous trading day, the main contract of urea closed down. It is expected that the urea market will rise slightly in a narrow range this week. The supply has decreased slightly, the demand from downstream products has changed differently, and the profit has improved. The downward space is limited [35][36] PX - On the previous trading day, the main contract of PX closed up. The PXN spread is relatively strong in the short term, the start - up rate is stable, the import has decreased, the spot liquidity is tight, and the cost - end crude oil has corrected. It may be adjusted in a volatile manner in the short term, and investors should pay attention to controlling positions and macro - policy changes [37][38] PTA - On the previous trading day, the main contract of PTA closed up. The supply is basically stable, the demand has decreased slightly, the processing fee has continued to decline, and the inventory is at a low level. The cost - end crude oil oscillates, and the support from the raw material PX price is limited. It may run in a volatile manner in the short term, and investors should be cautious and pay attention to oil price changes [39] Ethylene Glycol - On the previous trading day, the main contract of ethylene glycol closed down. The overall start - up rate has decreased, the port inventory has continued to accumulate, the pre - arrival volume at the port has increased, and the demand support has weakened. It may be under pressure in the short term, and investors should pay attention to port inventory and supply changes [40][41] Staple Fiber - On the previous trading day, the main contract of staple fiber closed down. The supply is at a relatively high level, the demand has not changed much, and the cost - driving force is limited. It may follow the cost to run in a volatile manner in the short term, and investors should pay attention to cost changes and macro - policy adjustments [42] Bottle Chips - On the previous trading day, the main contract of bottle chips closed down. The processing fee has been adjusted. The supply load has decreased, the downstream consumption is in the off - season, and the export has rebounded slightly. The main logic lies in the cost end, and it is expected to follow the cost to run in a volatile manner, and investors should pay attention to controlling risks [43] Lithium Carbonate - On the previous trading day, the main contract of lithium carbonate closed up. The production of lithium carbonate is still at a high level, the consumption in the energy storage and power battery sectors has improved, the inventory has gradually decreased, and investors should pay attention to the sustainability of consumption and the resumption progress of the mine end [44][45] Copper - On the previous trading day, the main contract of Shanghai copper closed up. The Federal Reserve cut interest rates, and the dollar index fell. The growth of copper concentrate is weak, the supply of electrolytic copper is expected to tighten, and the consumption is weak. The inventory has decreased. Driven by the dovish interest - rate policy and tight inventory in non - US regions, the copper price will run strongly [46][47] Aluminum - On the previous trading day, the main contract of Shanghai aluminum closed up, and the main contract of alumina closed down. The supply of alumina is in excess, the production capacity of electrolytic aluminum has limited room for growth, the consumption has entered the off - season, and the inventory has remained flat. The alumina price is suppressed by the oversupply, and the aluminum price will be adjusted in a volatile manner [48][49][50] Zinc - On the previous trading day, the main contract of Shanghai zinc closed up. The processing fee of zinc concentrate has fallen rapidly, the production of refined zinc has decreased, the downstream procurement enthusiasm is not high, and the inventory has decreased. Driven by the liquidity released by the Federal Reserve, the zinc price has risen, and investors should be cautious about chasing up [51][52] Lead - On the previous trading day, the main contract of Shanghai lead closed down. The processing fee of lead concentrate has continued to fall, the production enthusiasm of smelting enterprises may be affected, the production of recycled lead may decrease slightly, the downstream procurement rhythm has slowed down, and the inventory has decreased. The lead price has poor rebound momentum and will run within a range [53][54] Tin - On the previous trading day, the main contract of tin closed up. The supply of tin ore is tight, the production resumption progress in Wa State is slow, the smelting cost is high, the supply of imports is uncertain, and the overall supply is tight. The demand has certain resilience. The inventory of refined tin has decreased, and it is expected to run strongly in a volatile manner [55][56] Nickel - On the previous trading day, the main contract of nickel closed down. The Federal Reserve cut interest rates, and the macro - sentiment may continue to improve. The price of nickel ore is stable, the production of nickel ore may be affected, the downstream nickel - iron plants are in losses, and the consumption is not optimistic. The refined nickel inventory is at a relatively high level, and it will run in a volatile manner [57] Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - On the previous trading day, the main contract of soybean meal remained flat, and the main contract of soybean oil closed up. The Brazilian soybean planting progress is slightly slower than last year, the soybean crushing volume of oil mills remains at a high level, the inventory of soybean meal and soybean oil has decreased, the consumption of soybean oil has improved slightly, and the consumption of soybean meal is expected to grow moderately. The cost support for soybean products is good, and investors can pay attention to long - entry opportunities in the low - cost support range [58][59] Palm Oil - The Malaysian palm oil closed slightly up, supported by the rise of Dalian soybean oil futures. The Malaysian palm oil inventory has increased to a six - and - a - half - year high, the export has decreased, the domestic palm oil import has increased, and the inventory is at the middle level in the past seven years. Palm oil may consider going long on pullbacks [60][61] Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - The price of Canadian rapeseed closed up, affected by the rise of related varieties and the decline of US soybean oil and crude oil. The global and Canadian rapeseed production and inventory are expected to change. The domestic import of rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil has changed, and the inventory is at a relatively high level. In the near - term contracts, investors can consider short - term long positions and pay attention to setting stop - losses [62][63][64] Cotton - On the previous trading day, domestic Zheng cotton oscillated up, and overnight overseas cotton fell slightly. The US cotton export sales and production and inventory estimates have changed. The global cotton production and inventory estimates have also changed. The domestic textile and clothing export has shown a stable performance, the cotton planting area and output have increased, and the new cotton picking is almost over. It is recommended to wait and see [65][66][68] Sugar - On the previous trading day, Zheng sugar rebounded with a reduction in positions, and overnight overseas raw sugar fell. The number of sugar mills in Guangxi that have started crushing has decreased, the sugar production in India has increased, the sugar production in Brazil's central - southern region has increased, and the sugar export in Brazil has decreased slightly but is still large. The domestic market will face the dual pressure of domestic new sugar and imported sugar, and the 01 contract has certain support. It will run in a volatile manner [69][70][72] Apples - On the previous trading day, domestic apple futures oscillated. The inventory in apple cold storage has decreased, the new - season apple production has decreased, and the quality has declined. The price is expected to run strongly [73][74] Live Pigs - The national average price of live pigs remained flat. The pig price in the northern region was stable with a slight increase, and that in the southern region showed mixed results. The supply of pigs has increased slightly, the consumption in the southwest region has improved slightly, and the inventory of frozen products has increased slightly. In the short term, pay attention to the slaughter volume of farms and the consumption change after the temperature drops. It is recommended to wait and see [74][75] Eggs - The average price of eggs in the main producing and selling areas remained flat. The cost of eggs has increased, and the breeding profit is low. The inventory of laying hens

2025 年 12 月 11 日星期四 重庆市江北区金沙门路 32 号 23 层； 023-63638617 上海市浦东新区世纪大道 210 号 10 楼 1001； 国债： 上一交易日，国债期货收盘全线上涨，30 年期主力合约涨 0.30%报 112.790 元， 10 年期主力合约涨 0.06%报 108.030 元，5 年期主力合约涨 0.06%报 105.825 元，2 年 期主力合约涨 0.04%报 102.456 元。 公开市场方面，央行公告称，12 月 10 日以固定利率、数量招标方式开展了 1898 亿元 7 天期逆回购操作，操作利率 1.40%，投标量 1898 亿元，中标量 1898 亿元。Wind 数据显示，当日 793 亿元逆回购到期，据此计算，单日净投放 1105 亿元。 1 市场有风险 投资需谨慎 地址： 电话： | | | | 铅： | | 15 | | --- | --- | --- | | 锡： | | 16 | | 镍： | | 16 | | 豆油、豆粕： | | 16 | | 棕榈油： | | 17 | | 菜粕、菜油： | | 18 | | 棉花： | | 18 | | ...

2025 年 12 月 10 日星期三 重庆市江北区金沙门路 32 号 23 层； 023-63638617 上海市浦东新区世纪大道 210 号 10 楼 1001； 地址： 电话： 1 市场有风险 投资需谨慎 | | | | 铅： | | 15 | | --- | --- | --- | | 锡： | | 15 | | 镍： | | 16 | | 豆油、豆粕： | | 16 | | 棕榈油： | | 17 | | 菜粕、菜油： | | 17 | | 棉花： | | 18 | | 白糖： | | 19 | | 苹果： | | 20 | | 生猪： | | 20 | | 鸡蛋： | | 21 | | 玉米&淀粉： | | 22 | | 免责声明 | | 24 | 国债： 上一交易日，国债期货收盘全线上涨，30 年期主力合约涨 0.45%报 112.590 元， 10 年期主力合约涨 0.12%报 107.980 元，5 年期主力合约涨 0.07%报 105.785 元，2 年 期主力合约涨 0.02%报 102.430 元。 公开市场方面，央行公告称，12 月 9 日以固定利率、数量招标方式开展了 1173 亿 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - The macro - economic recovery momentum needs to be strengthened, and monetary policy is expected to remain loose. Treasury bond futures are under some pressure and should be treated with caution [6][7]. - The domestic economic situation is stable, but the recovery momentum is weak. The valuation of domestic assets is low, and the stock index is expected to gradually move up, and investors can choose the right time to go long [8]. - The global trade and financial environment is complex. Precious metals are expected to continue rising, and investors can wait and see for long - entry opportunities [10]. - The supply - demand pattern of steel products, iron ore, and coking coal and coke is weak, and investors can pay attention to short - selling and long - buying opportunities respectively [12][14][17]. - The overall surplus of ferroalloys has eased, and investors can consider long - entry opportunities at low levels after the spot losses expand [19][20]. - The crude oil price is supported, and the fuel oil price is also affected by positive factors. Both are currently on a wait - and - see basis [21][22][25]. - The demand for polyolefins has a certain improvement under the influence of policies and seasons, and it is on a wait - and - see basis [27]. - Synthetic rubber is expected to fluctuate, and natural rubber can be considered for long - entry opportunities [29][30][32]. - PVC should focus on supply - side changes, and urea's downward space is limited [33][34][36]. - PX may fluctuate and adjust in the short term, PTA is expected to fluctuate, ethylene glycol is under pressure, short - fiber may follow the cost to fluctuate, and bottle - chip is expected to follow the cost to fluctuate [37][38][39][41][42][43]. - For lithium carbonate, pay attention to the consumption sustainability and the resumption of production at the mine end [44][45]. - Copper, aluminum, and zinc are expected to be strong in the short term, lead is expected to fluctuate within a range, and tin is expected to fluctuate strongly [46][47][48][50][51][52][53][54][55]. - Nickel is expected to fluctuate, and soybean oil and soybean meal can pay attention to long - entry opportunities in the low - cost support range [56][59]. - Palm oil can consider long - entry on pullbacks, and rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil are on a wait - and - see basis [60][61][63]. - The upward space of cotton is limited, sugar is expected to fluctuate, apples are expected to be strong, and the short - term trend of live pigs should pay attention to the supply and consumption changes. Eggs are on a wait - and - see basis, and corn and corn starch can pay attention to the far - month out - of - the - money put options [64][65][67][68][70][72][76][80]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Treasury Bonds - On the previous trading day, most treasury bond futures closed down. The central bank carried out 122.3 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 14.7 billion yuan. Due to the low treasury bond yield, stable economic recovery, rising core inflation, and increased market risk appetite, treasury bond futures are under pressure [5][7]. Stock Index - On the previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed trends. The domestic economic recovery momentum is weak, but the asset valuation is low, and the market sentiment has increased recently. The stock index is expected to gradually move up, and investors can go long [8]. Precious Metals - On the previous trading day, the gold main contract fell, and the silver main contract rose. The complex global environment, central bank gold - buying behavior, and the possible continuous interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve are beneficial to precious metals, which are expected to continue rising, and investors can wait for long - entry opportunities [10]. Steel Products (Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil) - On the previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures slightly pulled back. In the medium term, the demand for rebar is declining, the market will enter the off - season, the supply capacity is surplus, the inventory is high, and the price is expected to be weak. Hot - rolled coil may have a similar trend, and investors can short on rebounds [12]. Iron Ore - On the previous trading day, iron ore futures slightly fell. The national hot - metal daily output has declined, the import volume has increased, the port inventory has risen, and the market supply - demand pattern is weak. The futures may continue to pull back, and investors can short at high levels [14]. Coking Coal and Coke - On the previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures fell sharply. The supply of coking coal is increasing, and the demand is weakening. The first - round price reduction of coke has been implemented, and the demand may weaken. The futures are still in a weak state, and investors can buy at low levels [16][17]. Ferroalloys - On the previous trading day, manganese - silicon and silicon - iron main contracts fell. The manganese ore supply has changed, the cost is rising, the output is falling, the demand is weak, and the overall surplus is easing. After the price pull - back, investors can consider long - entry opportunities when the spot losses expand [19][20]. Crude Oil - On the previous trading day, INE crude oil fluctuated upward due to the tense relationship between the US and Venezuela. The reduction of net short positions by US funds and geopolitical factors support the oil price, and the main contract is on a wait - and - see basis [21][22][23]. Fuel Oil - On the previous trading day, fuel oil rose sharply. The short - term supply is sufficient, and the market is under pressure. However, the deepening of the Asian fuel oil spot discount and the strengthening of the cost - end crude oil are beneficial to the price, and the main contract is on a wait - and - see basis [24][25][26]. Polyolefins - On the previous trading day, the PP market in Hangzhou declined in some parts, and the LLDPE price in Yuyao fell. The demand for polypropylene products has a certain improvement under the influence of policies and seasons, and it is on a wait - and - see basis [27][28]. Synthetic Rubber - On the previous trading day, the synthetic rubber main contract rose. The supply - demand is in a weak balance, and it is expected to fluctuate. Pay attention to the supply - side device changes and the demand - side recovery [29][30]. Natural Rubber - On the previous trading day, the natural rubber main contract showed mixed trends. The supply and demand have changed, and it is expected to fluctuate within a range. Investors can pay attention to long - entry opportunities [31][32]. PVC - On the previous trading day, the PVC main contract fell. The supply exceeds demand, and the downward space is limited. Pay attention to the supply - side changes after the festival [33][34]. Urea - On the previous trading day, the urea main contract fell. The supply is expected to decline slightly, the demand of downstream products has changed, the profit has improved, and the downward space is limited [35][36]. PX - On the previous trading day, the PX main contract rose. The PX load has slightly decreased, the import has decreased, and the short - term price may fluctuate and adjust. Pay attention to the crude oil changes and macro - policies [37][38]. PTA - On the previous trading day, the PTA main contract fell. The supply and demand have changed little, the processing fee is low, and the inventory is low. It is expected to fluctuate, and pay attention to the oil price [39]. Ethylene Glycol - On the previous trading day, the ethylene glycol main contract fell. The supply is increasing, the inventory is accumulating, the demand support is limited, and it is under short - term pressure. Pay attention to the port inventory and supply changes [40][41]. Short - Fiber - On the previous trading day, the short - fiber main contract fell. The supply is at a relatively high level, the demand changes little, and it may follow the cost to fluctuate. Pay attention to the cost and macro - policies [42]. Bottle - Chip - On the previous trading day, the bottle - chip main contract fell. The raw material price support is limited, the load is stable, the export growth has slowed down, and it is expected to follow the cost to fluctuate [43]. Lithium Carbonate - On the previous trading day, the lithium carbonate main contract rose. The supply is at a high level, the consumption is improving, and the inventory is decreasing. Pay attention to the consumption sustainability and the resumption of production at the mine end [44][45]. Copper - On the previous trading day, the Shanghai copper main contract fell slightly. The macro - economic data in the US is not as expected, increasing the possibility of interest rate cuts. The copper supply is expected to tighten, the consumption is weak, and the price is expected to be strong in the medium - to - long term, but beware of pull - backs [46][47]. Aluminum - On the previous trading day, the Shanghai aluminum and alumina main contracts fell slightly. The alumina supply is in surplus, the electrolytic aluminum supply increment is limited, the consumption enters the off - season, and the price is expected to be strong before the situation changes [48][49][50]. Zinc - On the previous trading day, the Shanghai zinc main contract rose. The zinc concentrate processing fee has fallen, the supply is decreasing, the inventory is decreasing, and the price is expected to be strong in the short term [51][52]. Lead - On the previous trading day, the Shanghai lead main contract fell slightly. The lead concentrate processing fee has fallen, the production enthusiasm of smelters may be affected, and the price is expected to fluctuate within a range [53][54]. Tin - On the previous trading day, the tin main contract fell. The supply of tin ore is tight, the demand has certain resilience, the inventory is decreasing, and the price is expected to fluctuate strongly [55]. Nickel - On the previous trading day, the nickel main contract fell. The nickel ore price is stable, the downstream demand is weak, the inventory is relatively high, and the price is expected to fluctuate [56]. Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - On the previous trading day, soybean oil and soybean meal main contracts fell. The Brazilian soybean planting progress is slightly slower, the US soybean harvest is basically completed, the supply pressure exists, the inventory is high, the demand has a certain improvement, and investors can pay attention to long - entry opportunities in the low - cost support range [57][58][59]. Palm Oil - The Malaysian palm oil price fell. The Chinese import of US soybeans is uncertain, the Indonesian policy may change, the Malaysian palm oil inventory may rise, and the domestic palm oil inventory is at a medium level. It can be considered to go long on pullbacks [60][61]. Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - The Canadian rapeseed price fell. The Canadian rapeseed production has increased, the domestic import of rapeseed - related products has changed, the inventory of rapeseed meal has increased slightly, and the inventory of rapeseed oil has decreased. It is on a wait - and - see basis [62][63]. Cotton - The domestic and foreign cotton prices showed different trends. The US cotton production and inventory have increased, and the domestic cotton is in a bumper harvest, with weak demand and limited upward space [64][65][66]. Sugar - The domestic and foreign sugar prices rebounded slightly. The Brazilian sugar production is in the off - season, the Indian sugar production is expected to increase, the domestic sugar production is increasing, and the import is expected to be high. The price is expected to fluctuate [67][68][69]. Apples - The domestic apple futures fell. The apple inventory is at a low level in recent years, the production has decreased, and the price is expected to be strong [70][71]. Live Pigs - The live pig price has changed regionally. The supply and demand situation has changed, and investors should pay attention to the supply of farms and the consumption changes after the temperature drop. Consider closing the remaining short positions [72][73]. Eggs - The egg price has changed slightly. The egg supply is at a high level, but the supply - side improvement is offset by weak demand. It is on a wait - and - see basis [74][75][76]. Corn and Corn Starch - The corn and corn starch main contracts fell. The transportation of corn in the Northeast is difficult, the supply pressure exists, the import may increase in the future, the demand has a slight increase, and investors can pay attention to the far - month out - of - the - money put options. Corn starch may follow the corn trend [77][78][80].

2025 年 12 月 8 日星期一 重庆市江北区金沙门路 32 号 23 层； 023-63638617 上海市浦东新区世纪大道 210 号 10 楼 1001； 1 市场有风险 投资需谨慎 地址： 电话： | | | | 铅： | | 15 | | --- | --- | --- | | 锡： | | 16 | | 镍： | | 16 | | 豆油、豆粕： | | 16 | | 棕榈油： | | 17 | | 菜粕、菜油： | | 18 | | 棉花： | | 18 | | 白糖： | | 19 | | 苹果： | | 20 | | 生猪： | | 21 | | 鸡蛋： | | 22 | | 玉米&淀粉： | | 22 | | 免责声明 | | 24 | 国债： 上一交易日，国债期货收盘全线上涨，30 年期主力合约涨 0.06%报 112.510 元， 10 年期主力合约涨 0.16%报 107.870 元，5 年期主力合约涨 0.11%报 105.755 元，2 年 期主力合约涨 0.04%报 102.418 元。 公开市场方面，央行公告称，12 月 5 日以固定利率、数量招标方式开展了 1398 亿 ...

2025 年 12 月 5 日星期五 重庆市江北区金沙门路 32 号 23 层； 023-63638617 上海市浦东新区世纪大道 210 号 10 楼 1001； 1 市场有风险 投资需谨慎 地址： 电话： | | | | 铅： | | 15 | | --- | --- | --- | | 锡： | | 15 | | 镍： | | 16 | | 豆油、豆粕： | | 16 | | 棕榈油： | | 17 | | 菜粕、菜油： | | 17 | | 棉花： | | 18 | | 白糖： | | 19 | | 苹果： | | 20 | | 生猪： | | 20 | | 鸡蛋： | | 21 | | 玉米&淀粉： | | 22 | | 免责声明 | | 23 | 股指： 上一交易日，股指期货涨跌不一，沪深 300 股指期货（IF）主力合约 0.38%，上证 50 股指期货（IH）主力 0.44%，中证 500 股指期货（IC）主力合约 0.61%，中证 1000 股指期货（IM）主力合约 0.39%。 国务院国资委召开国有企业对标世界一流企业价值创造行动推进会。会议强调， 4 市场有风险 投资需谨慎 国债： 上一 ...